CN106228459A - Equivalent reliability estimation method based on Monte Carlo - Google Patents
Equivalent reliability estimation method based on Monte Carlo Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of equivalent reliability estimation method based on Monte Carlo, first input the whole network basic data, according to considering that sensitivity concordance and the static equivalence method comprehensive with component type set up equivalent network, and calculate all equivalent network parameters.Use non-sequential Monte Carlo method analog element ruuning situation and load fluctuation size, it is thus achieved that the random manner of Intranet system, post analysis network topology whether there is off-the-line, Load flow calculation judges that Branch Power Flow or node voltage are the most out-of-limit.Last integrated estimation system equivalence reliability, and contrast with the result obtained based on conventional on-hook Theory of Equivalence, this equivalence method is when carrying out external network equivalent, the comprehensive of component type can not only be ensured, trend and sensitivity concordance can also be considered, on the premise of ensureing equivalent precision, combine non-sequential Monte Carlo method, be effectively increased the calculating speed of reliability assessment.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to Power System Reliability Analysis field, a kind of equivalent reliability based on Monte Carlo is commented
Estimate method.
Background technology
Along with the greatly developing of new forms of energy, constantly the advancing and the continuous growth of load of electricity market, power system by
Gradually develop into the interconnected power grid being closely connected again between layering and zoning and each subregion.Owing to influencing each other day between each subnet
Benefit strengthens, and must effectively examine the impact of interconnection outer net when the subnet (i.e. Intranet) studied is analyzed decision-making
Consider.But owing to interconnected power grid is in large scale or relates to the problems such as industry confidentiality, between each subnet, cannot be carried out complete number
According to exchange, the integrated analysis of interconnected power grid is difficult to decision-making, it is therefore necessary to theoretical by means of Static Equivalent, by outer net
Impact is retained in the equivalent network accessing boundary node.
In computational analysis in the case of Intranet systematic steady state, equivalent network retains Power Flow Information concordance and just can ensure that
The correctness of Intranet Analysis of Running Reliability and accuracy, if but system mode change, then must also consider indicate shape
The concordance of sensitivity information of state change, and electromotor, circuit, transformator, load and different to ground leg operation characteristic,
Response to system operation reliability is the most different, is therefore also required to retain different elements type as far as possible in equivalent network and comes anti-
Reflect extranet information.
Existing reliability estimation method, typically directly uses the whole network integration for being only used for the mini system of simulation study
Calculate, but for large scale system, the calculating time of the whole network is long, computationally intensive, in some instances it may even be possible to be difficult to restrain, the whole network one
Changing calculating will be the most applicable.In large scale system and real system are studied, existing reliability estimation method is typically directly ignored
Other networks beyond studied system, or only retain external network injecting power at boundary node, i.e. use simple extension
Equivalent machine method carries out equivalence to outer net.Hang equivalent machine method calculating simply although simple, but have ignored the rack knot of outer net completely
Structure, when there is disturbance in Intranet, it is impossible to the changed power on reflection interconnection, it is impossible to correct reflection outer net to the voltage of Intranet and
Power supporting role, may cause reliability assessment index computational accuracy to be difficult to ensure that.Therefore must be from trend, sensitivity and unit
Three angles of part type propose the new reliability estimation method considering equivalence.
Summary of the invention
The purpose of the present invention is to propose to a kind of equivalent reliability estimation method based on Monte Carlo.
It is an object of the invention to be achieved through the following technical solutions:
A kind of based on Monte Carlo the equivalent reliability estimation method that the present invention provides, comprises the following steps:
S1: obtain electrical network basic data, according to considering sensitivity concordance and the Static Equivalent comprehensive with component type
Method sets up equivalent network, and calculates all equivalent network parameters；Build equivalent network；
S2: set frequency in sampling, uses non-sequential Monte Carlo method to each element running status stochastic sampling, and then obtains
Intranet system random manner；
S3: judge the topological structure whether off-the-line of this Intranet system random manner, if it is, get rid of smaller part subnetting
Network, retains big network；
S4: if it is not, then enter next step S5；
S5: use Newton-Raphson approach to carry out Load flow calculation；
S6: judge whether trend restrains, if it is, judge that this system random manner lower node voltage and branch power are
No out-of-limit and store data；
S7: if it is not, then calculate the probability that system load flow is not restrained；
S8: judge whether to sample complete, re-starts if it is not, then return step S1；
S9: if it is, calculate reliability assessment index.
Further, described electrical network basic data includes the whole network electric power primary equipment parameter and topological structure；Described the whole network electricity
Power primary equipment parameter includes the impedance of whole circuit, over the ground susceptance and through-put power constraints thereof, the impedance of transformator, right
Ground admittance, no-load voltage ratio and through-put power constraints, the admittance over the ground of whole node and connected load power, generator output and go out
Force constraint condition；Described topological structure includes the annexation of each node in sub area division situation and electrical network；In described electrical network respectively
Node includes outer net node set E, boundary node set B and Intranet node set I.
Further, described equivalent network uses the static equivalence method comprehensive based on sensitivity concordance and component type
Calculating the equivalent parameters of equivalent network, it is equivalent at boundary node with electromotor that described equivalent parameters includes characterizing former outer net circuit
Boundary node between equivalent branch impedanceEquivalent branch impedance between boundary node and equivalent electromotor nodeEquivalent
The internodal equivalent branch impedance of electromotorWith characterize former outer net to ground leg at the equivalent equivalence of boundary node to twelve Earthly Branches
Road admittanceCharacterize the former outer net load duty value such as grade at boundary node equivalenceCharacterize former outer net electromotor to Intranet
The equivalent generator output S that power supportseqGi。
Further, described Intranet system random manner calculates and specifically comprises the following steps that
Condition selecting: the running status of each element is sampled, combines the random manner of all elements according to below equation
Obtain the random manner of system；
X=[x1,x2,…,xN]
In formula, riThe random number obtained, p is simulated for element iiDegree of unavailability for element i；X is system mode vector；xi
For any element i status.
Further, described Intranet system be in state s probability use below equation calculate:
In formula, M is population of samples, m(s)The number of times occurred for state s.
Further, the reliability assessment index of described Intranet system calculates according to below equation:
In formula, j represents that system or element are in the set of certain state；PkExpression system or element are in kth time sampling shape
Probability of state；PjExpression system or element are in the probability of certain state j.
Owing to have employed technique scheme, present invention have the advantage that:
The present invention is directed to Intranet reliability assessment index based on existing Static Equivalent model calculate deficiency, use based on
Sensitivity concordance and the comprehensive Equivalent Model of component type calculate reliability assessment index；Consider sensitivity before and after equivalence
The static equivalence method that concordance is comprehensive with equivalent element, with trend concordance, sensitivity concordance, power transfer characteristic one
Premised on cause property, condition obtains the computing formula of the method equivalent parameters, improves external network equivalent precision, and then ensures interior network operation
The accuracy of fail-safe analysis.
The present invention refer to a kind of external network equivalent method in reliability assessment index calculates, and this equivalence method is outside carrying out
Net equivalent time, can not only ensure the comprehensive of component type, moreover it is possible to consider trend and sensitivity concordance, is ensureing equivalent precision
On the premise of combine non-sequential Monte Carlo method, be effectively increased the calculating speed of reliability assessment.Compared in existing engineering
Use is an injection current equivalent thought that is added at the economize on electricity of border by external network equivalent, and the present invention is based on new external network equivalent method
Intranet system is carried out reliability assessment, and its reliability assessment index result of calculation is more accurate, error is less.Make for being
The reliability assessment of system state is the most accurate, more presses close to the whole network running situation.The composite can be widely applied to any electricity
Force system reliability assessment, is particularly well-suited to the Intranet reliability assessment that under electric power environmental, outer net status information is unknown.
Other advantages, target and the feature of the present invention will be illustrated to a certain extent in the following description, and
And to a certain extent, will be apparent to those skilled in the art based on to investigating hereafter, or can
To be instructed from the practice of the present invention.The target of the present invention and other advantages can be realized by description below and
Obtain.
Accompanying drawing explanation
The accompanying drawing of the present invention is described as follows.
Fig. 1 is the program flow chart of the inventive method.
Fig. 2 is the equivalent circuit schematic diagram of the present invention.
Fig. 3 is IEEE57 node standard test system figure.
Detailed description of the invention
The invention will be further described with embodiment below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
Embodiment 1
As it can be seen, a kind of based on Monte Carlo the equivalent reliability estimation method that the present embodiment provides, including following
Step:
S1: obtain electrical network basic data, according to considering sensitivity concordance and the Static Equivalent comprehensive with component type
Method sets up equivalent network, and calculates all equivalent network parameters；Build equivalent network；
S2: set frequency in sampling, uses non-sequential Monte Carlo method to each element running status stochastic sampling, and then obtains
Intranet system random manner；
S3: judge the topological structure whether off-the-line of this Intranet system random manner, if it is, get rid of smaller part subnetting
Network, retains big network；
S4: if it is not, then enter next step S5；
S5: use Newton-Raphson approach to carry out Load flow calculation；
S6: judge whether trend restrains, if it is, judge that this system random manner lower node voltage and branch power are
No out-of-limit and store data；
S7: if it is not, then calculate the probability that system load flow is not restrained；
S8: judge whether to sample complete, re-starts if it is not, then return step S1；
S9: if it is, calculate reliability assessment index.
Described electrical network basic data includes the whole network electric power primary equipment parameter and topological structure；Described the whole network electric power once sets
Standby parameter include the impedance of whole circuit, over the ground susceptance and through-put power constraints thereof, the impedance of transformator, over the ground admittance,
No-load voltage ratio and through-put power constraints, the admittance over the ground of whole node and connected load power, generator output and units limits
Condition；Described topological structure includes the annexation of each node in sub area division situation and electrical network；Each node bag in described electrical network
Include outer net node set E, boundary node set B and Intranet node set I.
Described equivalent network uses and calculates based on the static equivalence method that sensitivity concordance and component type are comprehensive
The equivalent parameters of equivalent network, described equivalent parameters includes characterizing former outer net circuit with electromotor on the border of boundary node equivalence
Equivalent branch impedance between nodeEquivalent branch impedance between boundary node and equivalent electromotor nodeEquivalent electromotor
Internodal equivalent branch impedanceWith characterize former outer net to ground leg at the equivalent equivalence branch admittance over the ground of boundary nodeCharacterize the former outer net load duty value such as grade at boundary node equivalenceCharacterize former outer net electromotor Intranet power is propped up
The equivalent generator output S of supporteqGi。
Described Intranet system random manner calculates and specifically comprises the following steps that
Condition selecting: the running status of each element is sampled, combines the random manner of all elements according to below equation
Obtain the random manner of system；
X=[x1,x2,···,xN]
In formula, riThe random number obtained, p is simulated for element iiDegree of unavailability for element i；X is system mode vector；xi
For any element i status.
Described Intranet system is in shape probability of state and uses below equation to calculate:
In formula, M is population of samples, m(s)The number of times occurred for state s.
The reliability assessment index of described Intranet system calculates according to below equation:
In formula, j represents that system or element are in the set of certain state；PkExpression system or element are in kth time sampling shape
Probability of state；PjExpression system or element are in the probability of certain state j.
Embodiment 2
Based on Monte Carlo the equivalent reliability estimation method that the present embodiment provides.Basis firstly the need of input the whole network
Data, including parameter and annexation, intranet and extranet dividing condition and each element availability of system element.According to consideration
Sensitivity concordance and the static equivalence method comprehensive with component type set up equivalent network, and calculate all equivalent networks ginseng
Number.Use and be applicable to the fortune of the non-sequential Monte Carlo method analog element to large scale system and high-rank fault situation reliability assessment
Market condition and load fluctuation size, it is thus achieved that the random manner of Intranet system, post analysis network topology whether there is off-the-line, trend
Calculate and judge that Branch Power Flow or node voltage are the most out-of-limit.Last integrated computing system and the reliability assessment index of element, and
Contrast with the result obtained based on conventional on-hook Theory of Equivalence, specifically comprise the following steps that
S1: obtain electrical network basic data, according to considering sensitivity concordance and the Static Equivalent comprehensive with component type
Method sets up equivalent network, and calculates all equivalent network parameters；Build equivalent network；
S2: set frequency in sampling, uses non-sequential Monte Carlo method to each element running status stochastic sampling, and then obtains
Intranet system random manner；
S3: judge the topological structure whether off-the-line of this Intranet system random manner, if it is, get rid of smaller part subnetting
Network, retains big network；
S4: if it is not, then enter next step S5；
S5: use Newton-Raphson approach to carry out Load flow calculation；
S6: judge whether trend restrains, if it is, judge that this system random manner lower node voltage and branch power are
No out-of-limit and store data；
S7: if it is not, then calculate the probability that system load flow is not restrained；
S8: judge whether to sample complete, re-starts if it is not, then return step S1；
S9: if it is, calculate reliability assessment index.
Embodiment 3
Based on Monte Carlo the equivalent reliability estimation method that the present embodiment provides, concrete grammar step is as follows:
Input basic data: input interconnected network basic data, including the whole network electric power primary equipment parameter (i.e. all circuits
Impedance, over the ground susceptance and through-put power constraints thereof, the impedance of transformator, over the ground admittance, no-load voltage ratio and through-put power thereof are about
Bundle condition, the admittance over the ground of whole nodes and connected load watt level, generator output size and units limits condition thereof etc.)
With topological structure (i.e. the annexation of each node in sub area division situation and electrical network).
Internetwork node before equivalence is divided into three parts, respectively outer net node set E, boundary node set B and
Intranet node set I.According to intranet and extranet dividing condition, interior mesh element number (i.e. total element number and available components can be obtained
Number).Traditional element reliability model ignores the impact on equipment of operation of power networks operating mode and external environment, based on long-time statistical number
According to, the probability of malfunction of element is taken as certain fixing constant, thus obtains availability (the i.e. available components of each element of Intranet
Availability and the degree of unavailability of unavailable element).
Set up external network equivalent network: use the static equivalence method comprehensive based on sensitivity concordance and component type
(i.e. " Static Equivalent Method Based on Component Particularity Representation
And Sensitivity Consistency ") calculate equivalent network equivalent parameters, including characterizing former outer net circuit and generating
Machine is equivalent branch impedance between the boundary node that boundary node is equivalentEquivalence between boundary node and equivalent electromotor node
Branch impedanceThe internodal equivalent branch impedance of equivalent electromotorWith characterizing former outer net, ground leg is saved on border
The equivalence branch admittance over the ground that point is equivalentCharacterize the former outer net load duty value such as grade at boundary node equivalenceCharacterize
The equivalent generator output S that Intranet power is supported by former outer net electromotoreqGiDeng.After calculating equivalent parameters, can draw
Equivalent network figure as shown in Figure 2.
Condition selecting, topological analysis and Load flow calculation: after completing the work of two above step, disregard each interelement
Failure dependency, can use non-sequential Monte Carlo method that the interior net state after equivalence is carried out a large amount of stochastic sampling, and then right
System carries out topological analysis, it may be judged whether off-the-line occurs, and clearing system data carry out Load flow calculation, thus obtains each branch road merit
Rate and each node voltage distribution situation under different conditions.
Condition selecting: use non-sequential Monte Carlo method to each element (include electromotor, circuit, transformator, load,
Reactance over the ground, direct-to-ground capacitance) running status sampling, the random manner combining all elements afterwards obtains the random like of system
State.Assume that in addition to load separate and the most properly functioning between each element and fault exits two states, with one
[0,1] being uniformly distributed of interval is simulated.If system has in addition to load N number of element, then system mode can be with vector X
=[x1,x2,…,xN] represent.As any element i status xiWhen value is 1, element is properly functioning, and otherwise fault is moved back
Go out.
In formula, riThe random number obtained, p is simulated for element iiDegree of unavailability for element i.
Assume load cell Normal Distribution, with system given load performance number as average, reset standard deviation, often
Its concrete payload stochastic generation in secondary sample mode, with the real-time fluctuations characteristic of load in simulating reality, obtain is reliable
Property assessment result is the most accurate.If carrying out M subsystem sampling, then the state probability of sampling every time is 1/M.Due to sampling with
Machine, system mode s may repeatedly occur, when sample size is sufficiently large, Intranet system is in the probability of state s can be smart
Really assessment.
In formula, M is population of samples, m(s)The number of times occurred for state s.
Topological analysis: after stochastic generation system mode, it is necessary to system is carried out topological analysis, its task seeks to point
The node of analysis whole system is connected into how many subsystems by circuit and transformator, and the node of electrical link and branch road will be had to draw
Assign in a subsystem, and sort out the related data of each subsystem, to form the input data of Load flow calculation.
In the case of system not off-the-line, the whole network is a system.For the system of off-the-line, then need to cast out isolated element,
Isolated node or generating set active volume are less than the subsystem of load.Owing to the degree of unavailability of each element is the least, at mould
Plan process occurs that a large amount of elements probability out of service is minimum, even in the case of there is off-the-line, the Intranet overwhelming majority is also
Given reservation to carry out reliability assessment.
Load flow calculation: use non-sequential illiteracy tower calot's method to randomly draw system mode, except the most out of service
Outside the fluctuation of equipment and load power, network topology, component parameters etc. are regarded as the value determined, thus Load flow calculation is accurate
Nonlinear equation calculate, and Newton-Raphson approach has fast convergence rate, good convergence, feature that computational accuracy is high, because of
This present invention uses Newton-Raphson approach to carry out Load flow calculation.
The probability that network is under each random manner is included into consideration, then can count joint from result of calculation repeatedly
Point voltage and the probability distribution of Branch Power Flow, obtain node voltage and the out-of-limit situation of Branch Power Flow and by each sample mode
Result stores, and then system and element are carried out reliability assessment.
Reliability assessment index calculates: reliability assessment index is broadly divided into state class reliability assessment index and out-of-limit class
Reliability assessment index, and every class index is accordingly divided into system index and element index.
State class reliability assessment index: in systematic sampling state, also exists normal and out-of-limit both running statuses.
Normal condition refers to that system can be properly functioning, out-of-limit situation does not occur, and out-of-limit state refers to that system has node voltage or branch road merit
Rate exceeds allowed band, it is possible to threatening system safety operation, its index computing formula is as follows:
In formula, j represents that system or element are in the set of certain state；PkExpression system or element are in kth time sampling shape
Probability of state；PjExpression system or element are in the probability of certain state j.Specifically, it is simply that system and each node voltage are in
More lower bound shape probability of state, system and each branch road (circuit and transformator) is in the probability of meritorious overload.Due to Niu Lafa
The situation that the trend that is likely to occur Load flow calculation does not restrains, then system occur trend do not restrain situation also include in this type of index come reciprocity
Value network reliability is estimated.
If finding, reliability assessment index beyond system tolerant scope, then must take necessary adjustment control measure so that
System load flow distribution meets system constraints and workload demand, otherwise will have to consider that reduction plans is to ensure the peace of system
Row for the national games.
So far, the calculation procedure of equivalent reliability estimation method based on Monte Carlo terminates.
Embodiment 4
The present embodiment combines specific embodiments, further describes.
Input basic data: the internetwork node before equivalence is divided into three parts, respectively outer net node set E=
{ 4-8,18-21}, boundary node set B={22,29} and Intranet node set I={1-3,9-17,23-28,30-57}.First
First inputting the basic data of system shown in Figure 3, wherein, interconnected network basic data includes topological structure and power equipment parameter,
Reference capacity is 100MW, referring primarily to IEEE-57 modular system.In Fig. 3, the branch road between 3 nodes and 4 nodes disconnects, 8 nodes
With the branch road that 9 between node disconnects.22 nodes and 29 nodes are boundary node；4-8,18-21 node is external node；1-3、9-
17,23-28 and 30-57 node is internal node, and its interior joint 1 is balance node.
Secondly, the available components number of IEEE57 node modular system is 70, its be interior mesh element number and border non-
The number sum of equivalent element.According to traditional element reliability model, by long-time statistical data obtain all types of element can not
As shown in the table by rate:
The degree of unavailability table 1 of system element
| Element | Electromotor | Circuit | Transformator | Shunt capacitance | Parallel reactance |
| Availability | 0.008 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.008 | 0.008 |
Set up external network equivalent network:
After (1st) step completes, in this embodiment, use existing comprehensive based on sensitivity concordance and component type
Static equivalence method (i.e. " Static Equivalent Method Based on Component Particularity
Representation and Sensitivity Consistency ") outer net is carried out the most equivalent and calculates equivalent network
All equivalent parameters, including equivalent branch impedance Zeq22、Zeq29And ZEq58,59, equivalence branch admittance over the groundWithDeng
Duty value PeqL22And PeqL29；Wherein,
Zeq22Represent equivalent branch impedance；
Zeq29Represent equivalent branch impedance；
ZEq58,59Represent equivalent branch impedance；
Represent that former outer net is to ground leg equivalence branch admittance over the ground at boundary node 22；
Represent that former outer net is to ground leg equivalence branch admittance over the ground at boundary node 29；
PeqL22Represent former outer net load duty value such as grade at boundary node 22；
PeqL29Represent former outer net load duty value such as grade at boundary node 29；
Equivalent parameters is as shown in the table: table 2 (p.u.)
Condition selecting, topological analysis and Load flow calculation:
After completing the work of two above step, just can be obtained node voltage, branch road by the probability of each system mode
The probability distribution of trend and out-of-limit situation, carry out reliability assessment index calculating to the Intranet after equivalence.
1) condition selecting
Use non-sequential Monte Carlo method to each element state xiCarry out stochastic sampling, and then obtain system mode.For protecting
The precision that card operation reliability evaluation index calculates, the present embodiment uses 10000 sampling, therefore each stochastic generation state altogether
Probability is 0.0001, obtains the general of different system state appearance further according to its number of times occurred in whole sampling process statistics
Rate.
2) topological analysis
After randomly drawing system mode, it is necessary to system is carried out topological analysis, it is judged that whether Intranet system occurs solving
Row situation.For the present embodiment, a large amount of element situation causing Intranet system substantially to be collapsed out of service does not occur.Occur solving
During row, only need to cast out the part departing from major networks, in the case of the properly functioning grade of whole elements does not occurs off-the-line, entirely
Net is still a holonomic system.
3) Load flow calculation
For different stochastic sampling states, Newton-Raphson approach is used to carry out 10000 definitiveness Load flow calculation,
The voltage swing of 48 nodes in Intranet and boundary system, 52 circuit branch roads and 13 electromotor Branch Power Flow sizes, enter
And probability distribution under different system state of analysis node voltage and Branch Power Flow data are stored, in order to judge more
Limit situation and calculating reliability assessment index.
Using Newton-Raphson approach to carry out Load flow calculation it is possible that trend does not restrains, the system mode not restrained is then
It is considered as disarmed state, is not counted in the reliability assessment index calculating of node and branch road.In the present embodiment, what participation was compared is several
The method of kind is as follows:
M0: original the whole network calculates；
M1: the inventive method；
M2: do not consider equivalence method the most frequently used in the equivalent machine method engineering of simple extension that outer net retrains；
Now two indexs that can reflect external network equivalent precision of definition, absolute error e1And relative error e2, the two index
Numerical value the least, illustrate that precision is the highest.
Absolute error e1:
e1=| x-xeq|
Relative error e2:
Wherein, x and xeqRepresenting true value and estimated value respectively, so-called true value refers to that intranet and extranet all use under simulated conditions
The Load flow calculation value of detailed network model, reliability assessment index value of calculation, and estimated value refers to use detailed network in Intranet
Model, outer net use the Load flow calculation value under equivalent network model, reliability assessment index value of calculation.
Under all states, the maximum error that power conserving voltage and branch road effective power flow calculate is distinguished the most as shown in Table 3 and Table 4:
Employing method M1 and M2 calculated trend error result,
Power conserving voltage Load flow calculation maximum error, table 3
Branch road active power flow calculates maximum error, table 4
Reliability assessment index calculates: the sample mode not restrained first against trend, need by its corresponding probability according to
State class reliability assessment index definition adds up, and calculates the Intranet system not convergent probability in non-sequential Monte Carlo FAXIA.And
For other sample modes of trend convergence, then mainly according to state class reliability assessment index definition calculate system, each node,
Circuit branch road, the out-of-limit probability of electromotor branch road, characterize its out-of-limit probability.
1, method M0-M2 calculated system load flow not convergent probability and error analysis are used
Method M0-M2 system load flow not convergent probability, table 5
| Equivalence method | Not convergent probability |
| M0 | 0.0421 |
| M1 | 0.0421 |
| M2 | 0.1582 |
The not convergent probability error analysis of method M0-M2 system load flow, table 6
2, the calculated system voltage of method M0-M2 is used to get over lower bound probability and error analysis.
Method M0-M2 is calculated system voltage and gets over lower bound probability, table 7
| Equivalence method | M0 | M1 | M2 |
| System voltage gets over lower bound probability | 0.9579 | 0.9579 | 0.8362 |
Method M1-M2 is calculated system and gets over lower bound probable error analysis, table 8
3, method M0-M2 calculated system line overload probability and error analysis are used.
Method M0-M2 calculated system line overload probability, table 9
| Equivalence method | M0 | M1 | M2 |
| System line overload probability | 0.0610 | 0.0611 | 0.0555 |
Method M1-M2 is calculated system line overload error analysis, table 10
4, method M0-M2 calculated system transformer overload probability and error analysis are used.
Method M0-M2 calculated system transformer overload probability, table 11
| Equivalence method | M0 | M1 | M2 |
| System transformer overload probability | 0.0985 | 0.0987 | 0.0392 |
Method M1-M2 is calculated system transformer overload error analysis, table 12
Knowable to experimental result: after using based on Monte Carlo the equivalent reliability estimation method that the present invention proposes, energy
Accurately judge the trend convergence state of system and power conserving voltage and the out-of-limit state of Branch Power Flow, Reliability evaluation index
Result of calculation the least with former net error, computational accuracy is the highest.And the simple equivalence machine method of hanging used in engineering has relatively
Big error, the convergence of false judgment trend and out-of-limit state, the security risk existed is underestimated, affects dividing of power system
Analysis decision-making.
In sum, based on Monte Carlo the equivalent reliability estimation method that the present embodiment proposes, it is possible to describe equivalence
Element comprehensive, can simulate the ruuning situation of actual outer net well, provides suitable power and voltage support to Intranet, uses
The network original fairly large outer net of replacement that one scale is less, improves the computational efficiency of reliability assessment.
Finally illustrating, above example is only in order to illustrate technical scheme and unrestricted, although with reference to relatively
The present invention has been described in detail by good embodiment, it will be understood by those within the art that, can be to the skill of the present invention
Art scheme is modified or equivalent, and without deviating from objective and the scope of the technical program, it all should be contained in the present invention
Right in the middle of.
Claims (6)
1. equivalent reliability estimation method based on Monte Carlo, it is characterised in that: comprise the following steps:
S1: obtain electrical network basic data, according to considering sensitivity concordance and the static equivalence method comprehensive with component type
Set up equivalent network, and calculate all equivalent network parameters；Build equivalent network；
S2: set frequency in sampling, uses non-sequential Monte Carlo method to each element running status stochastic sampling, and then obtains Intranet
System random manner；
S3: judge the topological structure whether off-the-line of this Intranet system random manner, if it is, get rid of smaller portions network, protect
Stay big network；
S4: if it is not, then enter next step S5；
S5: use Newton-Raphson approach to carry out Load flow calculation；
S6: judge whether trend restrains, if it is, judge whether this system random manner lower node voltage and branch power are got over
Limit and store data；
S7: if it is not, then calculate the probability that system load flow is not restrained；
S8: judge whether to sample complete, re-starts if it is not, then return step S1；
S9: if it is, calculate reliability assessment index.
2. equivalent reliability estimation method based on Monte Carlo as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that: described electrical network base
Plinth data include the whole network electric power primary equipment parameter and topological structure；Described the whole network electric power primary equipment parameter includes whole circuit
Impedance, over the ground susceptance and through-put power constraints thereof, the impedance of transformator, over the ground admittance, no-load voltage ratio and through-put power constraint
Condition, the admittance over the ground of whole node and connected load power, generator output and units limits condition；Described topological structure bag
Include the annexation of each node in sub area division situation and electrical network；In described electrical network, each node includes outer net node set E, border
Node set B and Intranet node set I.
3. equivalent reliability estimation method based on Monte Carlo as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that: described equivalent net
Network uses the equivalent parameters calculating equivalent network based on the static equivalence method that sensitivity concordance and component type are comprehensive,
Described equivalent parameters includes characterizing the equivalent branch impedance between the boundary node that boundary node is equivalent of former outer net circuit and electromotorEquivalent branch impedance between boundary node and equivalent electromotor nodeThe equivalent internodal equivalence of electromotor props up roadlock
Anti-With characterize former outer net to ground leg at the equivalent equivalence branch admittance over the ground of boundary nodeCharacterize former outer net to bear
Lotus waits duty value boundary node equivalenceCharacterize the equivalent generator output that Intranet power is supported by former outer net electromotor
SeqGi。
4. equivalent reliability estimation method based on Monte Carlo as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that: described Intranet system
System random manner calculates and specifically comprises the following steps that
Condition selecting: sampling the running status of each element, the random manner combining all elements according to below equation obtains
The random manner of system；
X=[x1,x2,…,xN]；
In formula, riThe random number obtained, p is simulated for element iiDegree of unavailability for element i；X is system mode vector；xiFor appointing
Meaning element i status.
5. equivalent reliability estimation method based on Monte Carlo as claimed in claim 4, it is characterised in that: described Intranet system
System is in shape probability of state and uses below equation to calculate:
In formula, M is population of samples, m(s)The number of times occurred for state s.
6. equivalent reliability estimation method based on Monte Carlo as claimed in claim 5, it is characterised in that: described Intranet system
The reliability assessment index of system calculates according to below equation:
In formula, j represents that system or element are in the set of certain state；PkExpression system or element are in the general of kth time sample mode
Rate；PjExpression system or element are in the probability of certain state j.
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