CN106056317A - Multiple flexible resource multi-state risk calculation method - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a multiple flexible resource multi-state risk calculation method. A single flexible resource schedulable potential value evaluation analysis model is established for a power grid comprising an electric automobile, a heat pump, an air conditioner and a distributed power source, and schedulable potential values of the electric automobile, the heat pump, the air conditioner and the distributed power source can be respectively acquired through the single flexible resource schedulable potential value evaluation analysis model; a multiple flexible resource gathering schedulable potential value evaluation model is established, and a schedulable potential value after multiple flexible resource gathering is acquired by calculation, a multiple flexible resource multi-state risk calculation model is established, different probabilities of the multiple flexible resources in multiple states are acquired, and the multiple flexible resource multi-state risk information is acquired through calculation. The method is advantaged in that the flexible resource risk information of the power grid is acquired under the action of multiple uncertain factors, a risk level of the power grid under the action of uncertain factors is identified, bases are provided for bidirectional interaction between the flexible resources and the power grid, and scientific bases are provided for safe operation of an intelligent power grid.

Description

A kind of multiple flexible resource multimode Risk Calculation method

Technical field

The invention belongs to Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System field, particularly relate to a kind of multiple flexible resource multimode risk Computational methods, for carrying out fail-safe analysis and the evaluation of risk of flexible resource in electrical network.

Background technology

In recent years, developing rapidly along with socioeconomic, traditional energy resource is the most exhausted.In " rear carbon " epoch, new one The energy revolution of wheel is the hope of Future Social Development.For problems such as effective alleviating energy crisis and environmental pollutions, the most effectively Utilize new forms of energy to be particularly important.

But, efficiently utilizing of extensive Thief zone new forms of energy is affected by multiple uncertain factor.The new energy of Thief zone Exert oneself features such as having intermittence, undulatory property and uncertainty in source so that the existing problems of dissolving of new forms of energy.The most employings are new The energy and thermoelectricity bundling send strategy to new forms of energy of dissolving, and this new forms of energy send mode to be needed frequently to adjust going out of fired power generating unit Power, substantial increase runs and maintenance cost, and can have a negative impact ecological environment.Although hydroenergy storage station utilizes energy storage Technology is performance certain effect in terms of solving the anti-peak-shaving capability of new forms of energy, but new forms of energy and the cooperation meeting of hydroenergy storage station Limited by factors such as regions.

Along with the development of the key technology of intelligent grid, distributed power source, flexible load include electric automobile, air-conditioning, heat The popularization and application of pump etc., propose higher to the intelligent level of electrical network and the ability of distributing rationally of various flexible available resources Requirement.Flexible resource Thief zone new forms of energy of dissolving are utilized to cause the extensive concern of Chinese scholars.Denmark, Spain etc. realize wind The country that electricity large-scale develops and utilizes participates in the dispatching of power netwoks operation containing new forms of energy by transferring the flexible resource in intelligent grid, Improve new energy digestion capability and power grid security reliability service ability.Therefore, qualitative assessment flexible resource is dissolved the energy of new forms of energy Power, assessment flexible resource schedulable potential value is most important.

But, the effect of uncertain internal and external factors, such as equipment faults itself, meteorological condition, environmental condition, service condition Deng, the reliability that intelligent grid flexible resource can participate in operation of power networks impacts.Additionally, information technology is as flexible resource Participate in the important foundation of intelligent grid operation frame, its uncertainty be affect flexible resource reliability key factor it One, introduce many uncertain factors also to the safe operation of power system.Therefore, it is necessary to the reliability of research flexible resource, Consider the mechanism of action to flexible resource of the multiple uncertain internal and external factors including information system, thus be flexible Resource participates in dispatching of power netwoks operation and establishes solid foundation.

Summary of the invention

It is an object of the invention to participate in dispatching of power netwoks for Demand-side flexible resource run, it is proposed that a kind of multiple flexible money Source multimode Risk Calculation method.

The technical scheme that the inventive method uses comprises the following steps:

(1) it is directed to include the electrical network of electric automobile, heat pump, air-conditioning and distributed power source, builds single flexible money Source schedulable potential value analysis and assessment model；

Flexible resource refers to be distributed in that the flexible load of Demand-side and distributed power source etc. are many in interior kind, base Number controllable big, widespread, can realize the effective management to power system by control and regulation flexibly, it is achieved major network The resource of the two-way collaborative interaction with distribution.

Single flexible resource schedulable potential value analysis and assessment model includes electric automobile schedulable potential value analysis and assessment Model, heat pump schedulable potential value analysis and assessment model, air-conditioning schedulable potential value analysis and assessment model and distributed power source can Scheduling potential value analysis and assessment model, obtains electric automobile, heat pump, air-conditioning and distributed power source respectively by described four models Schedulable potential value；

(2) the schedulable potential value assessment models setting up the polymerization of multiple flexible resource calculates acquisition multiple flexible resource polymerization After schedulable potential value；

Schedulable potential value and flexible resource self-characteristic after the polymerization of multiple flexible resource, flexible resource kind, flexibly Resource quantity is relevant, thus, by containing electric automobile, heat pump, air-conditioning and distributed power source multiple flexible resource be polymerized after can Scheduling potential value FDR (t) uses below equation to calculate and obtains:

FDR (t)=∑ EV (t)+∑ HP (t)+∑ AC (t)+∑ WP (t)+∑ SP (t)

Wherein, FDR (t) is the schedulable potential value after the polymerization of multiple flexible resource, ∑ EV (t), ∑ HP (t), ∑ AC (t), ∑ WP (t), ∑ SP (t) be respectively the electric automobile of single kind flexible resource, heat pump, air-conditioning, wind-powered electricity generation distributed power source, Schedulable potential value after the polymerization of distributed solar power supply.

(3) set up the assessment of multiple flexible resource multimode risk computation model and obtain multiple flexible resource when multiple state Different probability；

The operation of Demand-side flexible resource is acted on by multiple uncertain factor, such as weather conditions, external environment, information The system failure, message delay, network attack, self chance failure of flexible resource equipment, the factor such as aging.On the basis of (2), Consider the effect of multiple uncertain factor, according to the crash rate of flexible resource, based on theory of random processes, set up multiple flexible money Source multimode risk computation model, described multiple flexible resource multimode risk computation model particularly as follows:

Wherein, i represents the state number of flexible resource, and M represents the state number of flexible resource, t express time,Represent that flexible resource is at FDR_iProbability during individual state,Represent that flexible resource is from FDR_i-1Individual shape State is to FDR_iThe rate of transform of individual state, FDR₀≤FDR_i≤FDR_M；

4) calculate obtain the multi-mode risk information of multiple flexible resource, risk information include capacity risk probability R (t), Capacity expected value E (t) and capacity vacancy D (t)；

Use below equation to calculate and obtain capacity risk probability:

Use below equation to calculate and obtain capacity expected value E (t):

Use below equation to calculate and obtain capacity vacancy D (t):

Wherein, W represents that system provides the demand of spare capacity to flexible resource.

For electric automobile, its schedulable potential value and electric automobile self-characteristic such as battery behavior, charging interval, traveling Rule, discharge and recharge rule etc., the factor such as operation of power networks operating mode, external drive mechanism, electricity price information is relevant.

Described electric automobile schedulable potential value analysis and assessment model includes: by batteries of electric automobile state-of-charge letter Number calculates the state-of-charge obtaining batteries of electric automobile, is calculated by charging batteries of electric automobile informational probability density fonction Obtain the use information of batteries of electric automobile discharge and recharge, calculated by electric automobile during traveling rule function and obtain operating range probability Distributed intelligence, general according to the state-of-charge of batteries of electric automobile, the use information of batteries of electric automobile discharge and recharge and operating range Rate distributed intelligence and charging electric vehicle mode model calculate the schedulable potential value obtaining electric automobile.

Described batteries of electric automobile state-of-charge function employing below equation:

Wherein, SOC is battery charge state, and 0≤SOC≤1；E_resRepresenting battery dump energy, E is the specified of battery Electricity, t express time, I is electric current, and η is efficiency for charge-discharge；SOC₀For the initial state-of-charge of battery, the fully charged rear SOC of battery₀ =1, battery discharge completely after SOC₀=0.

Described charging batteries of electric automobile informational probability density fonction f_EVB(t) employing below equation:

Wherein, charging batteries of electric automobile informational probability density fonction f_EVBT () mainly includes that charging electric vehicle is held Continuous time, charging time started, the charging information such as end time, battery original state；μ_EVBRepresent that charging batteries of electric automobile is put down All time；σ_EVBRepresent that charging batteries of electric automobile information standard is poor.

Described electric automobile during traveling rule function uses below equation, and the power-law distribution that utilization index blocks represents electronic Probability distribution f (d) of automobile displacement:

F (d)=α exp (-β d) (d+d₀)^-γ

Wherein, d is electric automobile during traveling distance, α, β, γ, d₀Be respectively index block power-law distribution first, second, Three, the 4th parameters.

Described charging electric vehicle mode model includes maximum charge mode, minimum charging modes, User Defined Three kinds of charging modes of charging modes, three kinds of charging modes are calculated by respective charging function respectively and obtain charge power conduct The schedulable potential value of electric automobile, is expressed as:

EV (t)=P (t)

Wherein, EV (t) is the schedulable potential value of electric automobile, and P (t) is the charge power of electric automobile.

For described maximum charge mode, battery is all full of by charging i.e. every time, maximum charge function employing below equation:

Wherein, t express time, P (t) represents the charge power of electric automobile, and E is the specified electric quantity of battery, SOC_maxRepresent Battery maximum state-of-charge, SOC₀Represent the initial state-of-charge of battery；Below charge power P (t) of described electric automobile meets Constraints:

0≤P(t)≤P_max

P (t)=0, t electric automobile is in uncharged state

Wherein, P_maxRepresenting battery maximum charge power, E is the specified electric quantity of battery；

For described minimum charging modes, battery electric quantity is only charged to demand electricity, minimum charging function by charging i.e. every time Employing below equation:

Wherein, P (t) represents the charge power of electric automobile, and E is the specified electric quantity of battery, E_drRepresent traveling demand electricity, Calculated by running time, travel speed, traveling energy expenditure and operating range；E₀Represent that charging starts front battery the most electric Amount；Charge power P (t) of described electric automobile meets following constraints:

0≤P(t)≤P_max

P (t)=0, t electric automobile is in uncharged state

0≤E_dr≤E

Wherein, P_maxRepresenting battery maximum charge power, E is the specified electric quantity of battery；

For described User Defined charging modes, i.e. on the basis of minimum is charged, user's reserved part charge capacity, use The self-defined charging in family function employing below equation:

Wherein, E_drRepresent traveling demand electricity, E_reRepresent the charge capacity that user reserves, E₀Represent that charging starts front battery Initial quantity of electricity, the charge capacity E that user reserves_reMeet following constraints:

0≤E_re≤E

Wherein, E is the specified electric quantity of battery.

The schedulable potential value analysis and assessment model of heat pump has with room-size, air themperature, the thermal modeling etc. of heat pump Close.Described heat pump schedulable potential value analysis and assessment model specifically includes: calculates according to room stay area area and obtains room Between specific heat capacity C_hAnd total surface area Surf (area) (area)；By specific heat capacity C_hAnd total surface area Surf (area) (area) Calculate and obtain the heat transfer coefficient HT of object in room；Calculate further according to heat transfer coefficient HT and the heat flow direction of object in room Obtain the heat in room；Analyze room temperature situation over time, then root under the effect of air-conditioning and external environment Utilize room heat balance Equation for Calculating to obtain heating or refrigerating capacity of heat pump according to the situation of change of room temperature, and then calculating obtains Obtain the schedulable potential value of heat pump.

In described room, the heat transfer coefficient HT of object includes the heat transfer coefficient in room between air and body of wall HT_air-house(area, h), heat transfer coefficient HT between air and external environment in room_air-out(area, h), room body of wall and Heat transfer coefficient HT between external environment_house-out(area, h), three be all represented by its with house living space area and The function of height of house h.

The described heat in room includes that space air is to the heat of room body of wall, the warm of space air to external environment Measure and the heat of room body of wall to external environment, the heat of space air to room body of wall, the heat of space air to external environment Amount and room body of wall are respectively adopted below equation to the heat of external environment and calculate acquisition:

Q_air-house=HT_air-house(area,h)·(T_air-T_house)

Q_air-out=HT_air-out(area,h)·(T_air-T_out)

Q_house-out=HT_house-out(area,h)·(T_house-T_out)

Wherein, Q_air-house、Q_air-out、Q_house-outRepresent that space air is to the heat of room body of wall, space air respectively To the heat of external environment and room body of wall to the heat of external environment, T_air、T_house、T_outRepresent respectively room air temperature, Room wall temperature and ambient temperature；HT_air-house(area,h)、HT_air-out(area,h)、HT_house-out(area,h) Represent in room in the heat transfer coefficient between air and body of wall, room the heat transfer coefficient between air and external environment, room respectively Between heat transfer coefficient between body of wall and external environment, area represents the living space in room, and h represents the height in room.

Described room temperature includes room air temperature and room wall temperature, described room air temperature at interval of Time quantum Δ t function representation over time is:

Wherein,Represent room air temperature rate over time, Q_HPRepresent heating or refrigerating capacity of heat pump, C_airRepresent the specific heat capacity of space air.

When time quantum Δ t is sufficiently small, room air temperature change function representation is:

Wherein, n express time unit, T_airN () represents the room air temperature of the n-th time quantum, T_air(n+1) represent The room air temperature of (n+1) individual time quantum.

Described room wall temperature is expressed as over time at interval of time quantum Δ t:

Wherein,Represent room wall temperature rate over time, C_houseRepresent the ratio of room body of wall respectively Thermal capacitance；

In like manner, when time quantum Δ t is sufficiently small, room wall temperature change function representation is:

Wherein, n express time unit, T_houseN () represents the room wall temperature of the n-th time quantum, T_house(n+1) Represent the room wall temperature of (n+1) individual time quantum.Analysis room heat balance equation employing below equation:

Q_HP(t)=Q_air-house(t)+Q_air-out(t)

=HT_air-house(a,h)·(T_air-T_house)+HT_air-out(a,h)·(T_air-T_out)

Wherein, Q_HPT () represents heating or refrigerating capacity of heat pump, Q_HPSchedulable potentiality HP (t) of (t) and heat pump and property thereof Can coefficient COP_HPRelevant, and then the schedulable potential value employing below equation calculating of heat pump:

Wherein, the coefficient of performance of heat pump_HPT () is relevant with the difference of ambient temperature with heat pump design temperature, temperature Difference is the biggest, coefficient of performance_HPT () value is the least；HP (t) is the schedulable potential value of heat pump.

Described air-conditioning schedulable potential value analysis and assessment model include room air temperature function over time and Room wall temperature function over time, calculating acquisition space air arrives to heat and the space air of room body of wall respectively The heat of external environment, then the heat balance equation according to air-conditioning obtains the schedulable potential value of air-conditioning.

The thermodynamical model of air-conditioning is similar with the model of heat pump mentioned above, according to the first law of thermodynamics, at air-conditioned room In between, described room air temperature T_airT the change function representation of () t in time is:

Wherein, Q_ACRepresenting the refrigerating capacity of air-conditioning, w represents hot cold transport, Q_AC(t)、Q_air-house(t)、Q_air-out(t) point Not Biao Shi the heating or refrigerating capacity, the heat of space air to room body of wall, the heat of space air to external environment of air-conditioning, C_airSpecific heat capacity for space air.

Described room wall temperature function representation over time is:

Wherein, C_houseSpecific heat capacity for room body of wall.

Similar with the heat balance equation of heat pump, according to heat balance equation, the heat balance equation in air-conditioned room is:

Q_AC(t)=Q_air-house(t)+Q_air-out(t)

Schedulable potential value AC (t) of air-conditioning can use below equation to calculate:

Wherein, the coefficient of performance of air-conditioning_ACT () is relevant with the difference of ambient temperature with air-conditioning design temperature, AC T () is the schedulable potential value of air-conditioning.

Described distributed power source schedulable potential value analysis and assessment model, distributed power source uses wind-powered electricity generation power supply or too Sun energy power supply:

For wind-powered electricity generation power supply, owing to the schedulable potential value of Wind turbines is closely related with wind speed, set up the adjustable of wind-powered electricity generation Degree potential value model first has to set up accurate Wind speed model, sets up multimode Wind speed model according to seasonal effect in time series prediction, tool Body employing below equation:

Wherein, t express time, V (t) represents wind speed, q, a_q、b_qIt is respectively first, second, third parameter of time model,For white noise.

Then Wind turbines schedulable potentiality are obtained according to multimode Wind speed model, wind speed with the mapping relations of wind power Value model, uses below equation to represent:

Wherein, WP (t) represents the schedulable potential value of Wind turbines, V^cut-in、V^rated、V^cut-outRepresent blower fan respectively Incision wind speed, rated wind speed and cut-out wind speed, P_rated-powerFor the rated power of Wind turbines, a, b, c represent different wind respectively The wind power of machine and first, second, third parameter of wind speed mapping relations.

For sun-generated electric power, set up distributed solar power supply schedulable potential value model, solar energy photovoltaic panel can Scheduling potential value is the most relevant with intensity of solar radiation and solar panel self-characteristic.Use the mould that below equation represents Type calculates the schedulable potential value of acquisition solar panel:

SP (t)=SI (t) SV (t) K ξ

Wherein, SP (t), SI (t), SV (t), K, ξ are respectively the schedulable potential value of solar panels, the work of solar panels Electric current, the running voltage of solar panels, the quantity of solar panels, the loss of solar panels.

Electric automobile, heat pump and air-conditioning are applied to the present invention as typical flexible load.

The inventive method can be to variety classes spirits such as electric automobile, heat pump, air-conditioning, distributed power sources (wind-powered electricity generation, solar energy) Quick stock source carries out schedulable potential value assessment respectively, and to the schedulable potential value assessment after the polymerization of multiple flexible resource.

Consider weather conditions, external environment, information system fault, message delay, network attack, flexible resource equipment self Chance failure, the effect of the multiple uncertain internal and external factors such as aging, propose multiple flexible resource multimode risk evaluation model.

Beneficial effects of the present invention:

The present invention proposes multiple flexible resource multimode risk evaluation model, and to variety classes flexible resource schedulable Potential value is estimated, and utilizes flexible resource to dissolve Thief zone new forms of energy, provides run standby and environment to reducing conventional rack Polluting, raising wind-powered electricity generation utilization rate, minimizing are abandoned wind, are abandoned light, optimize energy source configuration structure and have positive role.

Assess the impact on intelligent grid reliability of the multiple flexible resource, study and provide flexibly under multiple uncertain factor effect Source methods of risk assessment in intelligent grid, identifies electrical network risk level under uncertain factor effect, for realizing flexibly Resource lays the foundation with the two-way interaction of electrical network, and the safe operation for intelligent grid provides scientific basis.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is the schedulable potential value calculation process schematic diagram of electric automobile.

Fig. 2 is the schedulable potential value calculation process schematic diagram of heat pump and air-conditioning.

Fig. 3 is the schedulable potential value calculation process schematic diagram of distributed power source.

Fig. 4 is the schedulable potential value calculation process schematic diagram of multiple flexible resource polymerization.

Fig. 5 is the multiple flexible resource multimode risk model figure of embodiment.

Fig. 6 is the multiple flexible resource multimode exemplary plot that embodiment uses.

Fig. 7 is risk indicator capacity risk probability R (t) schematic diagram that embodiment finally obtains.

Fig. 8 is risk indicator capacity expected value E (t) that finally obtains of embodiment and capacity vacancy D (t) schematic diagram.

Detailed description of the invention

Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and the present invention is described in further detail by specific embodiment.

Embodiments of the invention are as follows:

Use said method, flexible resource carried out risk assessment and illustrates as follows:

First, respectively dissimilar flexible resource is carried out schedulable potential value assessment.Fig. 1 is that electric automobile schedulable is dived Force value estimation flow, Fig. 2 is the schedulable potential value estimation flow of heat pump, air-conditioning, and Fig. 3 is the schedulable potentiality of distributed power source Value estimation flow.

Secondly, the schedulable potential value after being polymerized multiple flexible resource is estimated, as shown in Figure 4.

Then, the multiple flexible resource multimode schematic diagram that embodiment uses is as shown in Figure 6, it is considered to multiple internal and outside Uncertain factor formed multimode risk model as it is shown in figure 5, the rate of transform that flexible resource is transferred to 0.5MW by 0.8MW is 2 Times/year, 0.5MW the rate of transform transferring to 0.3MW is 1 times/year, 0.3MW the probability transferring to 0MW is 0.7 times/year.

Finally, if system is 0.4MW in the spare capacity that a certain period needs flexible resource to provide, flexible resource can be calculated Risk Calculation result, respectively the most as shown in Figure 7 and Figure 8, the threat probability values of visible system increase over time in figure and increase Greatly, flexible resource provides the increase in time of capacity expected value to reduce, the increase over time of power system capacity vacancy and increase.

As can be seen here, variety classes flexible resource schedulable potential value can be estimated by the present invention, it is achieved multiple the most true Under determining cause element effect, flexible resource Risk Calculation in intelligent grid is estimated, identifies electrical network wind under uncertain factor effect Danger level, lays the foundation for realizing the two-way interaction of flexible resource and electrical network, and the safe operation offer science for intelligent grid depends on According to.

Last it should be noted that, above example is only in order to illustrate that technical scheme is not intended to limit, although Describing the present invention with reference to above-mentioned example, those of ordinary skill in the field are to be understood that；Still can be to this Bright detailed description of the invention is modified or replaces on an equal basis, and without departing from any amendment of spirit and scope of the invention or equal Replacing, it all should be contained in the middle of scope of the presently claimed invention.

Claims (10)

1. the method for a multiple flexible resource multimode Risk Calculation, it is characterised in that: the method comprises the following steps:

(1) being directed to include the electrical network of electric automobile, heat pump, air-conditioning and distributed power source, building single flexible resource can Scheduling potential value analysis and assessment model；

Single flexible resource schedulable potential value analysis and assessment model include electric automobile schedulable potential value analysis and assessment model, Heat pump schedulable potential value analysis and assessment model, air-conditioning schedulable potential value analysis and assessment model and distributed power source schedulable are latent Force value analysis and assessment model, obtains the adjustable of electric automobile, heat pump, air-conditioning and distributed power source respectively by described four models Degree potential value；

(2) after setting up the schedulable potential value assessment models calculating acquisition multiple flexible resource polymerization of multiple flexible resource polymerization Schedulable potential value；

Schedulable potential value FDR after multiple flexible resource containing electric automobile, heat pump, air-conditioning and distributed power source is polymerized T () uses below equation to calculate and obtains:

FDR (t)=∑ EV (t)+∑ HP (t)+∑ AC (t)+∑ WP (t)+∑ SP (t)

Wherein, FDR (t) is the schedulable potential value after the polymerization of multiple flexible resource, ∑ EV (t), ∑ HP (t), ∑ AC (t), ∑ WP (t), ∑ SP (t) are respectively the electric automobile of single kind flexible resource, heat pump, air-conditioning, wind-powered electricity generation distributed power source, solar energy Schedulable potential value after distributed power source polymerization.

(3) set up multiple flexible resource multimode risk computation model assessment obtain multiple flexible resource when multiple state not Same probability；

Described multiple flexible resource multimode risk computation model particularly as follows:

$\left\{\begin{array}{c}\frac{{\mathrm{dp}}_{{\mathrm{FDR}}_0}\left(t\right)}{dt}=-{\mathrm{\λ}}_{{\mathrm{FDR}}_0,{\mathrm{FDR}}_1}{p}_{{\mathrm{FDR}}_0}\left(t\right)\\ \frac{{\mathrm{dp}}_{{\mathrm{FDR}}_i}\left(t\right)}{dt}={\mathrm{\λ}}_{{\mathrm{FDR}}_{i-1},{\mathrm{FDR}}_i}{p}_{{\mathrm{FDR}}_{i-1}}\left(t\right)-{\mathrm{\λ}}_{{\mathrm{FDR}}_i,{\mathrm{FDR}}_{i+1}}{p}_{{\mathrm{FDR}}_i}\left(t\right)\\ \frac{{\mathrm{dp}}_{{\mathrm{FDR}}_M}\left(t\right)}{dt}={\mathrm{\λ}}_{{\mathrm{FDR}}_{M-1},{\mathrm{FDR}}_M}{p}_{{\mathrm{FDR}}_{M-1}}\left(t\right)\end{array}\right.$

Wherein, i represents the state number of flexible resource, and M represents the state number of flexible resource, t express time,Table Show that flexible resource is at FDR_iProbability during individual state,Represent that flexible resource is from FDR_i-1Individual state is to FDR_i The rate of transform of individual state, FDR₀≤FDR_i≤FDR_M；

4) calculating the acquisition multi-mode risk information of multiple flexible resource, risk information includes capacity risk probability R (t), capacity Expected value E (t) and capacity vacancy D (t)；

Use below equation to calculate and obtain capacity risk probability:

$R\left(t\right)=\underset{i}{\&Sigma;}{p}_{{\mathrm{FDR}}_i}\left(t\right),{\mathrm{FDR}}_i<W$

Use below equation to calculate and obtain capacity expected value E (t):

$E\left(t\right)=\underset{i}{\&Sigma;}{p}_{{\mathrm{FDR}}_i}\left(t\right)\&CenterDot;{\mathrm{FDR}}_i$

Use below equation to calculate and obtain capacity vacancy D (t):

$D\left(t\right)=\underset{i}{\&Sigma;}{p}_{{\mathrm{FDR}}_i}\left(t\right)\&CenterDot;{\mathrm{FDR}}_i,{\mathrm{FDR}}_i<W$

Wherein, W represents that system provides the demand of spare capacity to flexible resource.

The method of a kind of multiple flexible resource multimode Risk Calculation the most according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: described Electric automobile schedulable potential value analysis and assessment model include: by batteries of electric automobile state-of-charge function calculate obtain electricity The state-of-charge of electrical automobile battery, is calculated by charging batteries of electric automobile informational probability density fonction and obtains electric automobile The use information of battery charging and discharging, is calculated by electric automobile during traveling rule function and obtains operating range probability distribution information, depend on According to the state-of-charge of batteries of electric automobile, the use information of batteries of electric automobile discharge and recharge and operating range probability distribution information with And charging electric vehicle mode model calculates the schedulable potential value obtaining electric automobile.

The method of a kind of multiple flexible resource multimode Risk Calculation the most according to claim 2, it is characterised in that: described Batteries of electric automobile state-of-charge function use below equation:

$SOC=\frac{E_{res}}{E}={\mathrm{SOC}}_0+\frac{\mathrm{\&eta;}\&Integral;Idt}{E}$

Wherein, SOC is battery charge state, and 0≤SOC≤1；E_resRepresenting battery dump energy, E is the specified electric quantity of battery, T express time, I is electric current, and η is efficiency for charge-discharge；SOC₀For the initial state-of-charge of battery, the fully charged rear SOC of battery₀=1, Battery discharge completely after SOC₀=0.

The method of a kind of multiple flexible resource multimode risk assessment the most according to claim 2, it is characterised in that: described Charging batteries of electric automobile informational probability density fonction f_EVB(t) employing below equation:

$f_{EVB}\left(t\right)=\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_{EVB}\sqrt{2\mathrm{\&pi;}}}\exp \&lsqb;-\frac{{(t-{\mathrm{\&mu;}}_{EVB})}^2}{2{{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_{EVB}}^2}\&rsqb;$

Wherein, μ_EVBRepresent charging batteries of electric automobile average time；σ_EVBRepresent that charging batteries of electric automobile information standard is poor.

The method of a kind of multiple flexible resource multimode risk assessment the most according to claim 2, it is characterised in that: described Electric automobile during traveling rule function use below equation, the power-law distribution that utilization index blocks represents electric automobile displacement Probability distribution f (d):

F (d)=α exp (-β d) (d+d₀)^-γ

Wherein, d is electric automobile during traveling distance, α, β, γ, d₀Be respectively index block power-law distribution first, second, third, 4th parameter.

The method of a kind of multiple flexible resource multimode risk assessment the most according to claim 2, it is characterised in that: described Charging electric vehicle mode model include maximum charge mode, minimum charging modes, the three of User Defined charging modes Kind of charging modes, three kinds of charging modes respectively by respective charging function calculate acquisition charge power as electric automobile can Scheduling potential value, is expressed as:

EV (t)=P (t)

Wherein, EV (t) is the schedulable potential value of electric automobile, and P (t) is the charge power of electric automobile.

The method of a kind of multiple flexible resource multimode risk assessment the most according to claim 6, it is characterised in that: for Described maximum charge mode, maximum charge function employing below equation:

$\underset{0}{\overset{t}{\&Integral;}}P\left(t\right)dt=({\mathrm{SOC}}_{max}-{\mathrm{SOC}}_0)\&CenterDot;E$

Wherein, t express time, P (t) represents the charge power of electric automobile, and E is the specified electric quantity of battery, SOC_maxRepresent battery Maximum state-of-charge, SOC₀Represent the initial state-of-charge of battery；Charge power P (t) of described electric automobile meets following constraint Condition:

0≤P(t)≤P_max

$\underset{0}{\overset{t}{\&Integral;}}P\left(t\right)dt\&le;{\mathrm{SOC}}_{max}\&CenterDot;E$

P (t)=0, t electric automobile is in uncharged state

Wherein, P_maxRepresenting battery maximum charge power, E is the specified electric quantity of battery；

For described minimum charging modes, minimum function employing below equation of charging:

$\underset{0}{\overset{t}{\&Integral;}}P\left(t\right)dt=E_{dr}-E_0=E_{dr}-{\mathrm{SOC}}_0\&CenterDot;E$

Wherein, P (t) represents the charge power of electric automobile, and E is the specified electric quantity of battery, E_drRepresent traveling demand electricity；E₀Table Show that charging starts front battery initial quantity of electricity；Charge power P (t) of described electric automobile meets following constraints:

0≤P(t)≤P_max

$\underset{0}{\overset{t}{\&Integral;}}P\left(t\right)dt\&le;{\mathrm{SOC}}_{max}\&CenterDot;E$

P (t)=0, t electric automobile is in uncharged state

0≤E_dr≤E

Wherein, P_maxRepresenting battery maximum charge power, E is the specified electric quantity of battery；

For described User Defined charging modes, User Defined charging function uses below equation:

$\underset{0}{\overset{t}{\&Integral;}}P\left(t\right)dt=E_{dr}+E_{re}-E_0=E_{dr}+E_{re}-{\mathrm{SOC}}_0\&CenterDot;E$

Wherein, E_drRepresent traveling demand electricity, E_reRepresent the charge capacity that user reserves, E₀Represent that charging starts front battery initial Electricity, the charge capacity E that user reserves_reMeet following constraints:

0≤E_re≤E

Wherein, E is the specified electric quantity of battery.

The method of a kind of multiple flexible resource multimode risk assessment the most according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: described Heat pump schedulable potential value analysis and assessment model specifically include: according to room stay area area calculate obtain room specific heat Hold C_hAnd total surface area Surf (area) (area)；By specific heat capacity C_h(area) calculate obtain with total surface area Surf (area) The heat transfer coefficient HT of object in room；Calculate obtain room further according to heat transfer coefficient HT and the heat flow direction of object in room In heat；Analyze room temperature situation over time under the effect of air-conditioning and external environment, then according to room temperature The situation of change of degree utilizes room heat balance Equation for Calculating to obtain heating or refrigerating capacity of heat pump, and then calculates acquisition heat pump Schedulable potential value.

The method of a kind of multiple flexible resource multimode risk assessment the most according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: described Air-conditioning schedulable potential value analysis and assessment model include room air temperature function over time and room wall temperature Function over time, calculates respectively and obtains space air to the heat of room body of wall and space air to the heat of external environment Amount, then the heat balance equation according to air-conditioning obtains the schedulable potential value of air-conditioning.

The method of a kind of multiple flexible resource multimode risk assessment the most according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: institute The distributed power source schedulable potential value analysis and assessment model stated, distributed power source employing wind-powered electricity generation power supply or sun-generated electric power:

For wind-powered electricity generation power supply, set up multimode Wind speed model according to seasonal effect in time series prediction, specifically use below equation:

Wherein, t express time, V (t) represents wind speed, q, a_q、b_qIt is respectively first, second, third parameter of time model, For white noise；

Then Wind turbines schedulable potential value mould is obtained according to multimode Wind speed model, wind speed with the mapping relations of wind power Type, uses below equation to represent:

$WP\left(t\right)=\left\{\begin{array}{c}0,0\&le;V\left(t\right)\&le;V^{cut-in}\\ (a+b\&times;V(t)+c\&times;V{\left(t\right)}^2)\&CenterDot;P_{rated-power},V^{cut-in}\&le;V\left(t\right)\&le;V^{rated}\\ P_r,V^{rated}\&le;V\left(t\right)\&le;V^{cut-out}\\ 0,V\left(t\right)\&GreaterEqual;V^{cut-out}\end{array}\right.$

Wherein, WP (t) represents the schedulable potential value of Wind turbines, V^cut-in、V^rated、V^cut-outRepresent the incision of blower fan respectively Wind speed, rated wind speed and cut-out wind speed, P_rated-powerFor the rated power of Wind turbines, a, b, c represent different blower fan respectively Wind power and first, second, third parameter of wind speed mapping relations；

For sun-generated electric power, set up distributed solar power supply schedulable potential value model, use the mould that below equation represents Type calculates the schedulable potential value of acquisition solar panel:

SP (t)=SI (t) SV (t) K ξ

Wherein, SP (t), SI (t), SV (t), K, ξ are respectively the work electricity of the schedulable potential value of solar panels, solar panels Stream, the running voltage of solar panels, the quantity of solar panels, the loss of solar panels.