CN106022663A - Risk assessment system for mountain fires approaching to transmission lines - Google Patents

Abstract

The present invention discloses a risk assessment system for mountain fires approaching to transmission lines, which comprises an information acquisition device, a storage device, a risk assessment device and an alarm device. All the components mentioned above are connected in sequence, and the risk assessment device is used for calculating the risk extent of a transmission line affected by all fire points and according to the risk extent, an early warning on the level of the mountain fire risk can be determined. When the early warning on the level of the mountain fire risk is higher than 40%, the alarm device performs alarming and displays the position of the transmission line affected by all fire points. According to the invention, it is possible to carry out risk assessment on the transmission line affected by the fire points and determine the risk level of the transmission line affected by the fire points so that maintenance personnel can maintain the relevant transmission line in time, thus ensuring the safe operation of the transmission line.

Description

The mountain fire of a kind of transmission line-oriented closes on risk evaluating system

Technical field

The present invention relates to power system security technical field, the mountain fire being specifically related to a kind of transmission line-oriented closes on risk Assessment system.

Background technology

In correlation technique, during the information such as meteorological department is issuing various places mountain fire early warning information, forest fire danger class scattergram, Above-mentioned information is all broad-brush, and coverage is relatively big, and time precision is not enough, and can not meet power industry transmission line of electricity fortune The assessment demand with early warning that becomes more meticulous mountain fire risk of row attendant, power industry transmission line of electricity operation maintenance personnel need badly One can be analyzed mountain fire in time after mountain fire occurs and be estimated circuit risk and pre-warning system, it is possible to instruct O&M people Member is to having selection when mountain fire occurs intensive, transmission line of electricity taking protective measure with having emphasis, thus by mountain fire to power transmission line The destruction on road and impact are reduced to minimum.

Summary of the invention

For the problems referred to above, the present invention provides the mountain fire of a kind of transmission line-oriented to close on risk evaluating system.

The purpose of the present invention realizes by the following technical solutions:

The mountain fire of a kind of transmission line-oriented closes on risk evaluating system, including the information collecting device being sequentially connected with, deposits Storage equipment, risk assessment device and warning device, described information collecting device connects satellite-based mountain fire by network interface Monitoring system, Automatic meteorology monitoring station and generalized information system, believe for gathering mountain fire from satellite-based forest fire monitoring system Breath, gather ignition point from Automatic meteorology monitoring station and the real time meteorological data near position occurs and to obtain electric power from generalized information system defeated Electric line information；Described storage device is for the information data that collected by information collecting device of storage true according to information data The fixed electric power transmission line affected by ignition point；Described risk assessment device is affected by ignition point all for calculating mountain fire The risk of electric power transmission line, and the mountain fire early warning risk class of this mountain fire event is judged according to risk；Described warning Equipment carries out reporting to the police and show all electric power transmission lines affected by ignition point when mountain fire early warning risk is higher than 40% Position.

Wherein, described mountain fire generation information includes that fire point occurs the geographical position of position, latitude and longitude coordinates and ground surface type.

Wherein, described real time meteorological data includes wind speed and direction.

Wherein, described risk assessment device includes:

(1) risk assessment index system generation module, for generating the electric power transmission line being directed to be affected by ignition point Risk assessment index system, described risk assessment index system includes destination layer, rule layer and indicator layer, and described destination layer is fixed Justice is the to be assessed electric power transmission line affected by ignition point, and described rule layer includes the power transmission line affected by ignition point The probability that breaks down in road, the electric power transmission line affected by ignition point break down after influence degree and uncontrollability three Female index, described indicator layer includes the every sub-index corresponding to female index, wherein considers that system is taken safety measures or plan Slightly abatement and the control action to risk, definition uncontrollability is to make after the electric power transmission line affected by ignition point breaks down The ability characteristics of strategy fails；

(2) evaluation grade system generation module, for generating the evaluation grade system corresponding to risk assessment index system, Described evaluation grade system is formulated by expert group, and it includes multiple evaluation grade, the corresponding grade mould of each evaluation grade Stick with paste subset；

(3) quantification of targets module, for gathering described every sub-index and according to the impact on corresponding female index of the sub-index Degree quantifies；

(4) index weights computing module, calculates female index and the weight vectors of sub-index for reference level fractional analysis；

(5) subordinated-degree matrix builds module, for according to described evaluation index system, calculates female index respectively to described etc. The degree of membership of level fuzzy subset, builds the subordinated-degree matrix of female index；

(6) Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result computing module, for according to subordinated-degree matrix and weight vector computation fuzzy synthesis Assessment result；

(7) risk evaluation module, for calculating the wind of destination layer according to weight vectors and Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result vector Danger degree also divides risk class based on risk, and risk is divided into 5 grades, each grade risk institute by described risk evaluation module Belong to interval be respectively (0,20%], (20%, 40%], (40%, 60%], (60%, 80%], (80%, 1], represent wind respectively Danger grade is negligible, slight, serious, danger, disaster.

Wherein, specifically perform during the running of described quantification of targets module:

If P, D, C represent probability that the electric power transmission line affected by ignition point breaks down respectively, are affected by ignition point Electric power transmission line break down after influence degree and uncontrollability, expert group's amount to the sub-index of x-th of female index y Change value carries out n time evaluating the set of quantized obtainedY=P, D, C, the sub-index of x-th of female index y Final quantization value is:

${I_x^y}^{\′}=\frac{{\mathrm{\Σ}}_i^n{I}_{xi}^y}{n},{I_x^y}^{\′}\∈\[0,1\]$

Wherein, described subordinated-degree matrix builds module when calculating female index to the degree of membership of described grade fuzzy subset, tool Body operates below performing:

Definition grade fuzzy subset is { v_j, j=1,2 ..., 5}, and define the influence degree equity for describing female index The membership function of the degree of membership of level fuzzy subset:

Wherein, ρ is the final quantization value of the sub-index of x-th of the female index y determined by expert group,Obscure for grade Subset { v_j, j=1,2 ..., standard value corresponding for 5},μ is that the expert group of assessment power communication device is to institute State the certainty factor of final quantization value；

According to described membership function, construct P, the subordinated-degree matrix R of tri-female indexs of D, C respectively_P,R_D,R_C:

$R_P=\left\{\begin{array}{cccc}{f}_{v_1}\left({I_1^P}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_1^P}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_1^P}^{\′}\right)\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_2^P}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_2^P}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_2^P}^{\′}\right)\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_{N_P}^P}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_{N_P}^P}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_{N_P}^P}^{\′}\right)\end{array}\right.$

$R_D=\left\{\begin{array}{cccc}{f}_{v_1}\left({I_1^D}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_1^D}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_1^D}^{\′}\right)\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_2^D}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_2^D}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_2^D}^{\′}\right)\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_{N_D}^D}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_{N_D}^D}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_{N_D}^D}^{\′}\right)\end{array}\right.$

$R_C=\left\{\begin{array}{cccc}{f}_{v_1}\left({I_1^C}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_1^C}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_1^C}^{\′}\right)\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_2^C}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_2^C}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_2^C}^{\′}\right)\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_{N_C}^C}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_{N_C}^C}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_{N_C}^C}^{\′}\right)\end{array}\right.$

Wherein, N_PRepresent the sub-index number that female index P comprises, N_DRepresent the sub-index number that female index D comprises, N_CTable Show the sub-index number that female index C comprises；

Wherein, the computing formula of described Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result computing module calculating Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result M is:

$M=W*\left(\begin{array}{c}{m}_P*R_P\\ m_D*R_D\\ m_C*R_C\end{array}\right)=(L_1,L_2,...,L_5)$

Wherein, if the weight fuzzy subset corresponding to female index P obtained according to weight vectors, D, C is W={w_P,w_D, w_C, the weight fuzzy subset corresponding to sub-index set under female index P of obtaining according to weight vectors, D, C is respectively m_P、m_D、 m_C, * represents that generalized fuzzy synthesizes computing；

Wherein, when calculating described risk, if grade corresponding to grade fuzzy subset is entered as { H_j, j=1,2 .., 5 }, I.e. grade v_jCorresponding numerical value H_j, and grade v_jFrom low paramount time described H_jValue is incremented by, and the computing formula of described risk is:

The invention have the benefit that

(1) system solves the problem that transmission line of electricity venture influence is difficult to quantify and assess by mountain fire, passes through fuzzy matrix And the application that analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is in risk assessment, can be to the various uncertain factors occurred in risk assessment processes, index It is analyzed；

(2) carry out risk assessment by risk assessment device, determine the risk class of the transmission line of electricity affected by ignition point, It is easy to attendant in time relevant power circuit is safeguarded, thus ensures the safe operation of transmission line of electricity；

(3) membership function of the degree of membership of influence degree In Grade fuzzy subset for describing female index is defined, and Utilize described membership function to carry out subordinated-degree matrix structure, calculated degree of membership Normal Distribution, more conformed to reality, kept away Exempt from the impact of artificial subjective factor, enhance the objectivity of assessment result；

(4) proposing the computing formula of Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result and risk, this computing formula is examined the most all sidedly Consider the factor affecting risk, highlighted the impact of safety measure Usefulness Pair systematic risk degree, it is achieved that to by ignition point shadow The after-action review of the transmission line of electricity rung, improves system evaluation precision.

Accompanying drawing explanation

The invention will be further described to utilize accompanying drawing, but the embodiment in accompanying drawing does not constitute any limit to the present invention System, for those of ordinary skill in the art, on the premise of not paying creative work, it is also possible to obtain according to the following drawings Other accompanying drawing.

Fig. 1 is the structure connection diagram of the present invention；

Fig. 2 is the structural representation of risk assessment index system of the present invention.

Reference:

Information collecting device 10, storage device 20, risk assessment device 30, warning device 40.

Detailed description of the invention

The invention will be further described with the following Examples.

Embodiment 1

Seeing Fig. 1, Fig. 2, the mountain fire of the present embodiment transmission line-oriented closes on what risk evaluating system included being sequentially connected with Information collecting device 10, storage device 20, risk assessment device 30 and warning device 40, described information collecting device 10 passes through net Network interface connects satellite-based forest fire monitoring system, Automatic meteorology monitoring station and generalized information system, for from satellite-based mountain fire Monitor system acquisition mountain fire generation information, gather the real time meteorological data near ignition point generation position from Automatic meteorology monitoring station Electric power transmission line information is obtained with from generalized information system；Described storage device 20 is collected by information collecting device 10 for storage Information data and determine the electric power transmission line affected by ignition point according to information data；Described risk assessment device 30 is used for Calculate the mountain fire risk on all electric power transmission lines affected by ignition point, and judge this mountain fire event according to risk Mountain fire early warning risk class；Described warning device carries out reporting to the police and show all being subject to when mountain fire early warning risk is higher than 40% The position of the electric power transmission line of ignition point impact.

Wherein, described mountain fire generation information includes that fire point occurs the geographical position of position, latitude and longitude coordinates and ground surface type.

Wherein, described real time meteorological data includes wind speed and direction.

Wherein, described risk assessment device 30 includes:

(1) risk assessment index system generation module, for generating the electric power transmission line being directed to be affected by ignition point Risk assessment index system, described risk assessment index system includes destination layer, rule layer and indicator layer, and described destination layer is fixed Justice is the to be assessed electric power transmission line affected by ignition point, and described rule layer includes the power transmission line affected by ignition point The probability that breaks down in road, the electric power transmission line affected by ignition point break down after influence degree and uncontrollability three Female index, described indicator layer includes the every sub-index corresponding to female index, wherein considers that system is taken safety measures or plan Slightly abatement and the control action to risk, definition uncontrollability is to make after the electric power transmission line affected by ignition point breaks down The ability characteristics of strategy fails；

(2) evaluation grade system generation module, for generating the evaluation grade system corresponding to risk assessment index system, Described evaluation grade system is formulated by expert group, and it includes multiple evaluation grade, the corresponding grade mould of each evaluation grade Stick with paste subset；

(3) quantification of targets module, for gathering described every sub-index and according to the impact on corresponding female index of the sub-index Degree quantifies；

(4) index weights computing module, calculates female index and the weight vectors of sub-index for reference level fractional analysis；

(5) subordinated-degree matrix builds module, for according to described evaluation index system, calculates female index respectively to described etc. The degree of membership of level fuzzy subset, builds the subordinated-degree matrix of female index；

(6) Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result computing module, for according to subordinated-degree matrix and weight vector computation fuzzy synthesis Assessment result；

(7) risk evaluation module, for calculating the wind of destination layer according to weight vectors and Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result vector Danger degree also divides risk class based on risk.

The present embodiment passes through fuzzy matrix and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) application in risk assessment, can be to risk assessment processes The various uncertain factors of middle appearance, index are analyzed, and carry out risk assessment by risk assessment device, determine by ignition point The risk class of the transmission line of electricity of impact, it is simple to relevant power circuit is safeguarded by attendant in time, thus ensures transmission of electricity The safe operation of circuit.

Embodiment 2

Seeing Fig. 1, Fig. 2, the mountain fire of the present embodiment transmission line-oriented closes on what risk evaluating system included being sequentially connected with Information collecting device 10, storage device 20, risk assessment device 30 and warning device 40, described information collecting device 10 passes through net Network interface connects satellite-based forest fire monitoring system, Automatic meteorology monitoring station and generalized information system, for from satellite-based mountain fire Monitor system acquisition mountain fire generation information, gather the real time meteorological data near ignition point generation position from Automatic meteorology monitoring station Electric power transmission line information is obtained with from generalized information system；Described storage device 20 is collected by information collecting device 10 for storage Information data and determine the electric power transmission line affected by ignition point according to information data；Described risk assessment device 30 is used for Calculate the mountain fire risk on all electric power transmission lines affected by ignition point, and judge this mountain fire event according to risk Mountain fire early warning risk class；Described warning device carries out reporting to the police and show all being subject to when mountain fire early warning risk is higher than 40% The position of the electric power transmission line of ignition point impact.

Wherein, described mountain fire generation information includes that fire point occurs the geographical position of position, latitude and longitude coordinates and ground surface type.

Wherein, described real time meteorological data includes wind speed and direction.

Wherein, described risk assessment device 30 includes:

(1) risk assessment index system generation module, for generating the electric power transmission line being directed to be affected by ignition point Risk assessment index system, described risk assessment index system includes destination layer, rule layer and indicator layer, and described destination layer is fixed Justice is the to be assessed electric power transmission line affected by ignition point, and described rule layer includes the power transmission line affected by ignition point The probability that breaks down in road, the electric power transmission line affected by ignition point break down after influence degree and uncontrollability three Female index, described indicator layer includes the every sub-index corresponding to female index, wherein considers that system is taken safety measures or plan Slightly abatement and the control action to risk, definition uncontrollability is to make after the electric power transmission line affected by ignition point breaks down The ability characteristics of strategy fails；

(2) evaluation grade system generation module, for generating the evaluation grade system corresponding to risk assessment index system, Described evaluation grade system is formulated by expert group, and it includes multiple evaluation grade, the corresponding grade mould of each evaluation grade Stick with paste subset；

(3) quantification of targets module, for gathering described every sub-index and according to the impact on corresponding female index of the sub-index Degree quantifies；

(4) index weights computing module, calculates female index and the weight vectors of sub-index for reference level fractional analysis；

(5) subordinated-degree matrix builds module, for according to described evaluation index system, calculates female index respectively to described etc. The degree of membership of level fuzzy subset, builds the subordinated-degree matrix of female index；

(6) Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result computing module, for according to subordinated-degree matrix and weight vector computation fuzzy synthesis Assessment result；

(7) risk evaluation module, for calculating the wind of destination layer according to weight vectors and Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result vector Danger degree also divides risk class based on risk, and risk is divided into 5 grades, each grade risk by wherein said risk evaluation module Interval belonging to degree be respectively (0,20%], (20%, 40%], (40%, 60%], (60%, 80%], (80%, 1], table respectively Show that risk class is negligible, slight, serious, danger, disaster

The present embodiment defines risk class and divides, it is simple to the assessment of risk.

Embodiment 3

Seeing Fig. 1, Fig. 2, the mountain fire of the present embodiment transmission line-oriented closes on what risk evaluating system included being sequentially connected with Information collecting device 10, storage device 20, risk assessment device 30 and warning device 40, described information collecting device 10 passes through net Network interface connects satellite-based forest fire monitoring system, Automatic meteorology monitoring station and generalized information system, for from satellite-based mountain fire Monitor system acquisition mountain fire generation information, gather the real time meteorological data near ignition point generation position from Automatic meteorology monitoring station Electric power transmission line information is obtained with from generalized information system；Described storage device 20 is collected by information collecting device 10 for storage Information data and determine the electric power transmission line affected by ignition point according to information data；Described risk assessment device 30 is used for Calculate the mountain fire risk on all electric power transmission lines affected by ignition point, and judge this mountain fire event according to risk Mountain fire early warning risk class；Described warning device carries out reporting to the police and show all being subject to when mountain fire early warning risk is higher than 40% The position of the electric power transmission line of ignition point impact.

Wherein, described mountain fire generation information includes that fire point occurs the geographical position of position, latitude and longitude coordinates and ground surface type.

Wherein, described real time meteorological data includes wind speed and direction.

Wherein, described risk assessment device 30 includes:

(1) risk assessment index system generation module, for generating the electric power transmission line being directed to be affected by ignition point Risk assessment index system, described risk assessment index system includes destination layer, rule layer and indicator layer, and described destination layer is fixed Justice is the to be assessed electric power transmission line affected by ignition point, and described rule layer includes the power transmission line affected by ignition point The probability that breaks down in road, the electric power transmission line affected by ignition point break down after influence degree and uncontrollability three Female index, described indicator layer includes the every sub-index corresponding to female index, wherein considers that system is taken safety measures or plan Slightly abatement and the control action to risk, definition uncontrollability is to make after the electric power transmission line affected by ignition point breaks down The ability characteristics of strategy fails；

(2) evaluation grade system generation module, for generating the evaluation grade system corresponding to risk assessment index system, Described evaluation grade system is formulated by expert group, and it includes multiple evaluation grade, the corresponding grade mould of each evaluation grade Stick with paste subset；

(3) quantification of targets module, for gathering described every sub-index and according to the impact on corresponding female index of the sub-index Degree quantifies；

(4) index weights computing module, calculates female index and the weight vectors of sub-index for reference level fractional analysis；

(5) subordinated-degree matrix builds module, for according to described evaluation index system, calculates female index respectively to described etc. The degree of membership of level fuzzy subset, builds the subordinated-degree matrix of female index；

(6) Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result computing module, for according to subordinated-degree matrix and weight vector computation fuzzy synthesis Assessment result；

(7) risk evaluation module, for calculating the wind of destination layer according to weight vectors and Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result vector Danger degree also divides risk class based on risk.

Wherein, specifically perform during the running of described quantification of targets module:

If P, D, C represent probability that the electric power transmission line affected by ignition point breaks down respectively, are affected by ignition point Electric power transmission line break down after influence degree and uncontrollability, expert group's amount to the sub-index of x-th of female index y Change value carries out n time evaluating the set of quantized obtainedY=P, D, C, the sub-index of x-th of female index y Final quantization value is:

${I_x^y}^{\′}=\frac{{\mathrm{\Σ}}_i^n{I}_{xi}^y}{n},{I_x^y}^{\′}\∈\[0,1\]$

The present embodiment defines the quantitative formula of each sub-index, reduces the complexity that information data is processed by system, carries High assessment efficiency.

Embodiment 4

Seeing Fig. 1, Fig. 2, the mountain fire of the present embodiment transmission line-oriented closes on what risk evaluating system included being sequentially connected with Information collecting device 10, storage device 20, risk assessment device 30 and warning device 40, described information collecting device 10 passes through net Network interface connects satellite-based forest fire monitoring system, Automatic meteorology monitoring station and generalized information system, for from satellite-based mountain fire Monitor system acquisition mountain fire generation information, gather the real time meteorological data near ignition point generation position from Automatic meteorology monitoring station Electric power transmission line information is obtained with from generalized information system；Described storage device 20 is collected by information collecting device 10 for storage Information data and determine the electric power transmission line affected by ignition point according to information data；Described risk assessment device 30 is used for Calculate the mountain fire risk on all electric power transmission lines affected by ignition point, and judge this mountain fire event according to risk Mountain fire early warning risk class；Described warning device carries out reporting to the police and show all being subject to when mountain fire early warning risk is higher than 40% The position of the electric power transmission line of ignition point impact.

Wherein, described mountain fire generation information includes that fire point occurs the geographical position of position, latitude and longitude coordinates and ground surface type.

Wherein, described real time meteorological data includes wind speed and direction.

Wherein, described risk assessment device 30 includes:

(1) risk assessment index system generation module, for generating the electric power transmission line being directed to be affected by ignition point Risk assessment index system, described risk assessment index system includes destination layer, rule layer and indicator layer, and described destination layer is fixed Justice is the to be assessed electric power transmission line affected by ignition point, and described rule layer includes the power transmission line affected by ignition point The probability that breaks down in road, the electric power transmission line affected by ignition point break down after influence degree and uncontrollability three Female index, described indicator layer includes the every sub-index corresponding to female index, wherein considers that system is taken safety measures or plan Slightly abatement and the control action to risk, definition uncontrollability is to make after the electric power transmission line affected by ignition point breaks down The ability characteristics of strategy fails；

(2) evaluation grade system generation module, for generating the evaluation grade system corresponding to risk assessment index system, Described evaluation grade system is formulated by expert group, and it includes multiple evaluation grade, the corresponding grade mould of each evaluation grade Stick with paste subset；

(3) quantification of targets module, for gathering described every sub-index and according to the impact on corresponding female index of the sub-index Degree quantifies；

(4) index weights computing module, calculates female index and the weight vectors of sub-index for reference level fractional analysis；

(5) subordinated-degree matrix builds module, for according to described evaluation index system, calculates female index respectively to described etc. The degree of membership of level fuzzy subset, builds the subordinated-degree matrix of female index；

(6) Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result computing module, for according to subordinated-degree matrix and weight vector computation fuzzy synthesis Assessment result；

(7) risk evaluation module, for calculating the wind of destination layer according to weight vectors and Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result vector Danger degree also divides risk class based on risk.

Wherein, described subordinated-degree matrix builds module when calculating female index to the degree of membership of described grade fuzzy subset, tool Body operates below performing:

Definition grade fuzzy subset is { v_j, j=1,2 ..., 5}, and define the influence degree equity for describing female index The membership function of the degree of membership of level fuzzy subset:

Wherein, ρ is the final quantization value of the sub-index of x-th of the female index y determined by expert group,Obscure for grade Subset { v_j, j=1,2 ..., standard value corresponding for 5},μ is that the expert group of assessment power communication device is to institute State the certainty factor of final quantization value；

According to described membership function, construct P, the subordinated-degree matrix R of tri-female indexs of D, C respectively_P,R_D,R_C:

$R_P=\left\{\begin{array}{cccc}{f}_{v_1}\left({I_1^P}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_1^P}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_1^P}^{\′}\right)\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_2^P}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_2^P}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_2^P}^{\′}\right)\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_{N_P}^P}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_{N_P}^P}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_{N_P}^P}^{\′}\right)\end{array}\right.$

$R_D=\left\{\begin{array}{cccc}{f}_{v_1}\left({I_1^D}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_1^D}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_1^D}^{\′}\right)\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_2^D}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_2^D}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_2^D}^{\′}\right)\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_{N_D}^D}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_{N_D}^D}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_{N_D}^D}^{\′}\right)\end{array}\right.$

$R_C=\left\{\begin{array}{cccc}{f}_{v_1}\left({I_1^C}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_1^C}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_1^C}^{\′}\right)\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_2^C}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_2^C}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_2^C}^{\′}\right)\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_{N_C}^C}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_{N_C}^C}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_{N_C}^C}^{\′}\right)\end{array}\right.$

Wherein, N_PRepresent the sub-index number that female index P comprises, N_DRepresent the sub-index number that female index D comprises, N_CTable Show the sub-index number that female index C comprises.

What the present embodiment defined the degree of membership of the influence degree In Grade fuzzy subset for describing female index is subordinate to letter Number, and utilize described membership function to carry out subordinated-degree matrix structure, calculate degree of membership Normal Distribution, more conform to reality Border, it is to avoid the impact of artificial subjective factor, enhances the objectivity of assessment result.

Embodiment 5

Seeing Fig. 1, Fig. 2, the mountain fire of the present embodiment transmission line-oriented closes on what risk evaluating system included being sequentially connected with Information collecting device, storage device, risk assessment device and warning device, described information collecting device is connected by network interface Satellite-based forest fire monitoring system, Automatic meteorology monitoring station and generalized information system, for adopting from satellite-based forest fire monitoring system Collect mountain fire generation information, gather the real time meteorological data near ignition point generation position from Automatic meteorology monitoring station and from GIS system System obtains electric power transmission line information；Described storage device is for storing the information data root collected by information collecting device The electric power transmission line affected by ignition point is determined according to information data；Described risk assessment device is used for calculating mountain fire to be subject to all The risk of the electric power transmission line of ignition point impact, and the mountain fire early warning risk etc. of this mountain fire event is judged according to risk Level；Described warning device carries out reporting to the police and show all electric power affected by ignition point when mountain fire early warning risk is higher than 40% The position of transmission line of electricity.

Wherein, described mountain fire generation information includes that fire point occurs the geographical position of position, latitude and longitude coordinates and ground surface type.

Wherein, described real time meteorological data includes wind speed and direction.

Wherein, described risk assessment device includes:

(1) risk assessment index system generation module, for generating the electric power transmission line being directed to be affected by ignition point Risk assessment index system, described risk assessment index system includes destination layer, rule layer and indicator layer, and described destination layer is fixed Justice is the to be assessed electric power transmission line affected by ignition point, and described rule layer includes the power transmission line affected by ignition point The probability that breaks down in road, the electric power transmission line affected by ignition point break down after influence degree and uncontrollability three Female index, described indicator layer includes the every sub-index corresponding to female index, wherein considers that system is taken safety measures or plan Slightly abatement and the control action to risk, definition uncontrollability is to make after the electric power transmission line affected by ignition point breaks down The ability characteristics of strategy fails；

(2) evaluation grade system generation module, for generating the evaluation grade system corresponding to risk assessment index system, Described evaluation grade system is formulated by expert group, and it includes multiple evaluation grade, the corresponding grade mould of each evaluation grade Stick with paste subset；

(3) quantification of targets module, for gathering described every sub-index and according to the impact on corresponding female index of the sub-index Degree quantifies；

(4) index weights computing module, calculates female index and the weight vectors of sub-index for reference level fractional analysis；

(5) subordinated-degree matrix builds module, for according to described evaluation index system, calculates female index respectively to described etc. The degree of membership of level fuzzy subset, builds the subordinated-degree matrix of female index；

(6) Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result computing module, for according to subordinated-degree matrix and weight vector computation fuzzy synthesis Assessment result；

(7) risk evaluation module, for calculating the wind of destination layer according to weight vectors and Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result vector Danger degree also divides risk class based on risk, and risk is divided into 5 grades, each grade risk institute by described risk evaluation module Belong to interval be respectively (0,20%], (20%, 40%], (40%, 60%], (60%, 80%], (80%, 1], represent wind respectively Danger grade is negligible, slight, serious, danger, disaster.

Wherein, specifically perform during the running of described quantification of targets module:

If P, D, C represent probability that the electric power transmission line affected by ignition point breaks down respectively, are affected by ignition point Electric power transmission line break down after influence degree and uncontrollability, expert group's amount to the sub-index of x-th of female index y Change value carries out n time evaluating the set of quantized obtainedY=P, D, C, the sub-index of x-th of female index y Final quantization value is:

${I_x^y}^{\′}=\frac{{\mathrm{\Σ}}_i^n{I}_{xi}^y}{n},{I_x^y}^{\′}\∈\[0,1\]$

Wherein, described subordinated-degree matrix builds module when calculating female index to the degree of membership of described grade fuzzy subset, tool Body operates below performing:

Definition grade fuzzy subset is { v_j, j=1,2 ..., 5}, and define the influence degree equity for describing female index The membership function of the degree of membership of level fuzzy subset:

Wherein, ρ is the final quantization value of the sub-index of x-th of the female index y determined by expert group,Obscure for grade Subset { v_j, j=1,2 ..., standard value corresponding for 5},μ is that the expert group of assessment power communication device is to institute State the certainty factor of final quantization value；

According to described membership function, construct P, the subordinated-degree matrix R of tri-female indexs of D, C respectively_P,R_D,R_C:

$R_P=\left\{\begin{array}{cccc}{f}_{v_1}\left({I_1^P}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_1^P}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_1^P}^{\′}\right)\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_2^P}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_2^P}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_2^P}^{\′}\right)\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_{N_P}^P}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_{N_P}^P}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_{N_P}^P}^{\′}\right)\end{array}\right.$

$R_D=\left\{\begin{array}{cccc}{f}_{v_1}\left({I_1^D}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_1^D}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_1^D}^{\′}\right)\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_2^D}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_2^D}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_2^D}^{\′}\right)\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_{N_D}^D}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_{N_D}^D}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_{N_D}^D}^{\′}\right)\end{array}\right.$

$R_C=\left\{\begin{array}{cccc}{f}_{v_1}\left({I_1^C}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_1^C}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_1^C}^{\′}\right)\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_2^C}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_2^C}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_2^C}^{\′}\right)\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ .& .& & .\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_{N_C}^C}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_{N_C}^C}^{\′}\right)& \mathrm{...}& f_{v_5}\left({I_{N_C}^C}^{\′}\right)\end{array}\right.$

Wherein, N_PRepresent the sub-index number that female index P comprises, N_DRepresent the sub-index number that female index D comprises, N_CTable Show the sub-index number that female index C comprises；

Wherein, the computing formula of described Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result computing module calculating Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result M is:

$M=W*\left(\begin{array}{c}{m}_P*R_P\\ m_D*R_D\\ m_C*R_C\end{array}\right)=(L_1,L_2,...,L_5)$

Wherein, if the weight fuzzy subset corresponding to female index P obtained according to weight vectors, D, C is W={w_P,w_D, w_C, the weight fuzzy subset corresponding to sub-index set under female index P of obtaining according to weight vectors, D, C is respectively m_P、m_D、 m_C, * represents that generalized fuzzy synthesizes computing；

Wherein, when calculating described risk, if grade corresponding to grade fuzzy subset is entered as { H_j, j=1,2 .., 5}, I.e. grade v_jCorresponding numerical value H_j, and grade v_jFrom low paramount time described H_jValue is incremented by, and the computing formula of described risk is:

On the basis of the present embodiment is based on above-described embodiment, it is proposed that the calculating of Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result and risk is public Formula, this computing formula considers the factor affecting risk the most all sidedly, highlights safety measure Usefulness Pair system risk The impact of degree, it is achieved that the after-action review on the transmission line of electricity affected by ignition point, improves system evaluation precision.

Last it should be noted that, above example is only in order to illustrate technical scheme, rather than the present invention is protected Protecting the restriction of scope, although having made to explain to the present invention with reference to preferred embodiment, those of ordinary skill in the art should Work as understanding, technical scheme can be modified or equivalent, without deviating from the reality of technical solution of the present invention Matter and scope.

Claims (8)

1. the mountain fire of a transmission line-oriented closes on risk evaluating system, it is characterised in that include that the information being sequentially connected with is adopted Collection equipment, storage device, risk assessment device and warning device, described information collecting device is connected based on defending by network interface The forest fire monitoring system of star, Automatic meteorology monitoring station and generalized information system, for gathering mountain fire from satellite-based forest fire monitoring system Generation information, gather ignition point from Automatic meteorology monitoring station and the real time meteorological data near position occurs and obtains from generalized information system Electric power transmission line information；Described storage device is for storing the information data collected by information collecting device and according to information Data determine the electric power transmission line affected by ignition point；Described risk assessment device is used for calculating mountain fire to all by ignition point The risk of the electric power transmission line of impact, and the mountain fire early warning risk class of this mountain fire event is judged according to risk；Institute State warning device to carry out reporting to the police and show all electric power transmissions affected by ignition point when mountain fire early warning risk is higher than 40% The position of circuit.

The mountain fire of a kind of transmission line-oriented the most according to claim 1 closes on risk evaluating system, it is characterised in that institute State mountain fire generation information and include that fire point occurs the geographical position of position, latitude and longitude coordinates and ground surface type.

The mountain fire of a kind of transmission line-oriented the most according to claim 1 closes on risk evaluating system, it is characterised in that institute State real time meteorological data and include wind speed and direction.

The mountain fire of a kind of transmission line-oriented the most according to claim 1 closes on risk evaluating system, it is characterised in that institute State risk assessment device to include:

(1) risk assessment index system generation module, is directed to the wind of the electric power transmission line affected by ignition point for generation Danger evaluation index system, described risk assessment index system includes that destination layer, rule layer and indicator layer, described destination layer are defined as The to be assessed electric power transmission line affected by ignition point, described rule layer includes that the electric power transmission line affected by ignition point is sent out The probability of raw fault, the electric power transmission line affected by ignition point break down after influence degree and three mothers of uncontrollability refer to Mark, described indicator layer includes the every sub-index corresponding to female index, wherein considers that system is taken safety measures or strategy is right The abatement of risk and control action, definition uncontrollability is to make strategy after the electric power transmission line affected by ignition point breaks down The ability characteristics lost efficacy；

(2) evaluation grade system generation module, for generating the evaluation grade system corresponding to risk assessment index system, described Evaluation grade system is formulated by expert group, and it includes multiple evaluation grade, the fuzzy son of the corresponding grade of each evaluation grade Collection；

(3) quantification of targets module, for gathering described every sub-index and according to the sub-index influence degree to corresponding female index Quantify；

(4) index weights computing module, calculates female index and the weight vectors of sub-index for reference level fractional analysis；

(5) subordinated-degree matrix builds module, for according to described evaluation index system, calculates female index respectively to described grade mould Stick with paste the degree of membership of subset, build the subordinated-degree matrix of female index；

(6) Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result computing module, for according to subordinated-degree matrix and weight vector computation Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation Result；

(7) risk evaluation module, for calculating the risk of destination layer according to weight vectors and Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result vector And dividing risk class based on risk, risk is divided into 5 grades by described risk evaluation module, district belonging to each grade risk Between be respectively (0,20%], (20%, 40%], (40%, 60%], (60%, 80%], (80%, 1], represent risk etc. respectively Level is negligible, slight, serious, danger, disaster.

The mountain fire of a kind of transmission line-oriented the most according to claim 1 closes on risk evaluating system, it is characterised in that institute Specifically perform when stating the running of quantification of targets module:

If P, D, C represent the probability that the electric power transmission line affected by ignition point breaks down, the electricity affected by ignition point respectively Power transmission line of electricity break down after influence degree and uncontrollability, expert group's quantized value to the sub-index of x-th of female index y Carry out n time evaluating the set of quantized obtained and beY=P, D, C, the sub-index of x-th of female index y final Quantized value is:

${I_x^y}^{\′}=\frac{{\mathrm{\Σ}}_i^n{I}_{xi}^y}{n},{I_x^y}^{\′}\∈\[0,1\]$

The mountain fire of a kind of transmission line-oriented the most according to claim 5 closes on risk evaluating system, it is characterised in that institute State subordinated-degree matrix and build module when calculating female index to the degree of membership of described grade fuzzy subset, concrete perform following operation:

Definition grade fuzzy subset is { v_j, j=1,2 ..., 5}, and define the influence degree In Grade mould for describing female index The membership function of the degree of membership of paste subset:

Wherein, ρ is the final quantization value of the sub-index of x-th of the female index y determined by expert group,For grade fuzzy subset {v_j, j=1,2 ..., standard value corresponding for 5},μ be assessment power communication device expert group to described The certainty factor of whole quantized value；

According to described membership function, construct P, the subordinated-degree matrix R of tri-female indexs of D, C respectively_P,R_D,R_C:

$R_P=\left\{\begin{array}{cccc}{f}_{v_1}\left({I_1^P}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_1^P}^{\′}\right)& ...& f_{v_5}\left({I_1^P}^{\′}\right)\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_2^P}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_2^P}^{\′}\right)& ...& f_{v_5}\left({I_2^P}^{\′}\right)\\ \begin{array}{c}.\\ .\\ .\end{array}& \begin{array}{c}.\\ .\\ .\end{array}& \begin{array}{c}\\ \\ \end{array}& \begin{array}{c}.\\ .\\ .\end{array}\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_{N_P}^P}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_{N_P}^P}^{\′}\right)& ...& f_{v_5}\left({I_{N_P}^P}^{\′}\right)\end{array}\right.$

$R_D=\left\{\begin{array}{cccc}{f}_{v_1}\left({I_1^D}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_1^D}^{\′}\right)& ...& f_{v_5}\left({I_1^D}^{\′}\right)\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_2^D}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_2^D}^{\′}\right)& ...& f_{v_5}\left({I_2^D}^{\′}\right)\\ \begin{array}{c}.\\ .\\ .\end{array}& \begin{array}{c}.\\ .\\ .\end{array}& \begin{array}{c}\\ \\ \end{array}& \begin{array}{c}.\\ .\\ .\end{array}\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_{N_D}^D}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_{N_D}^D}^{\′}\right)& ...& f_{v_5}\left({I_{N_D}^D}^{\′}\right)\end{array}\right.$

$R_C=\left\{\begin{array}{cccc}{f}_{v_1}\left({I_1^C}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_1^C}^{\′}\right)& ...& f_{v_5}\left({I_1^C}^{\′}\right)\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_2^C}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_2^C}^{\′}\right)& ...& f_{v_5}\left({I_2^C}^{\′}\right)\\ \begin{array}{c}.\\ .\\ .\end{array}& \begin{array}{c}.\\ .\\ .\end{array}& \begin{array}{c}\\ \\ \end{array}& \begin{array}{c}.\\ .\\ .\end{array}\\ f_{v_1}\left({I_{N_C}^C}^{\′}\right)& f_{v_2}\left({I_{N_C}^C}^{\′}\right)& ...& f_{v_5}\left({I_{N_C}^C}^{\′}\right)\end{array}\right.$

Wherein, N_PRepresent the sub-index number that female index P comprises, N_DRepresent the sub-index number that female index D comprises, N_CRepresent mother The sub-index number that index C comprises；

The mountain fire of a kind of transmission line-oriented the most according to claim 6 closes on risk evaluating system, it is characterised in that institute The computing formula stating Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result computing module calculating Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result M is:

$M=W*\left(\begin{array}{c}{m}_P*R_P\\ m_D*R_D\\ m_C*R_C\end{array}\right)=(L_1,L_2,...,L_5)$

Wherein, if the weight fuzzy subset corresponding to female index P obtained according to weight vectors, D, C is W={w_P,w_D,w_C, root The weight fuzzy subset corresponding to sub-index set under female index P of obtaining according to weight vectors, D, C is respectively m_P、m_D、m_C, * table Show that generalized fuzzy synthesizes computing；

The mountain fire of a kind of transmission line-oriented the most according to claim 7 closes on risk evaluating system, it is characterised in that meter When calculating described risk, if grade corresponding to grade fuzzy subset is entered as { H_j, j=1,2 .., 5}, i.e. grade v_jCorresponding numerical value H_j, and grade v_jFrom low paramount time described H_jValue is incremented by, and the computing formula of described risk is: