CN105975770A - Method for constructing power generation carbon emission quota distribution model under inter-provincial carbon trading mechanism - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention relates to a method for constructing a power generation carbon emission quota distribution model under an inter-provincial carbon trading mechanism, belonging to the technical field of low-carbon electricity of power systems. The method comprises the following steps of: constructing a first-stage distribution model for inter-provincial quota distribution, wherein the first-stage distribution model is composed of two links including an initial distribution model and a re-adjusted model for the result of the initial distribution model, and, by taking the result of the first-stage distribution model as the boundary condition, constructing a second-stage distribution model for distributing carbon emission quota distribution results of various provinces obtained by the first-stage distribution model among various power plants in the province; and, according to the two-stage distribution models, obtaining an inter-provincial distribution scheme for power generation carbon emission quota distribution and the power generation carbon emission quota of various power plants in the province under the inter-provincial carbon trading mechanism. According to the method disclosed by the invention, on the basis of the existing carbon trading experimental unit in the province, power generation carbon emission quota distribution under the inter-provincial carbon emission trading mechanism is researched in combination with characteristics of the power industry; due to the method disclosed by the invention, low-carbon development can be realized; excessive consumption of fossil energy can be reduced; and the purpose of effectively reducing carbon emission can be achieved.

Description

Transprovincially carbon transaction mechanism in district's issues the construction method of electrical carbon emission allowance distribution model

Technical field

The invention belongs to power system low-carbon electric power technical field, particularly to sending out under a kind of district transprovincially carbon transaction mechanism Electrical carbon emission allowance distribution model.

Background technology

Along with energy problem protrudes day by day with climate change problem, it is achieved low carbon development, reduce excessively the disappearing of fossil energy Consumption is increasingly becoming the common objective of human society.The core of low carbon development is the change of technological innovation, system innovation and the view of development, This will relate to production model, life style, the readjusting of values, closely related with country rights and interests.

Carbon emissions trading is as a kind of marketized tools that can effectively reduce carbon emission, and obtain the most in the world is wide General carries out.Carbon transaction refers under the guidance and supervision of environmental protection subjectivity department, discharger by market mechanism according to method of correlation Laws & Regulations, in line with the principle that equality is voluntary, the residue index after being reduced discharging is sold with compensation, realizes temperature with relatively low cost The effect that room gas total emission volumn reduces discharging.The basic thought of carbon transaction is: on the premise of environment allows, and gives special body and closes The carbon emission right of method, and allow main body can buy in or sell this right as dealing commodity, control carbon with this Discharge.

At present, the research of inter-provincial allocation of quota of concluding the business carbon emission is relatively fewer, and some are studied from hereditary rule principle, put down Set about carrying out the distribution of inter-provincial quota etc. doctrine principle and ability to pay principle.Wang Wenju, Li Feng etc. are then from global quota The fairness doctrine analysis of distribution method is started with, and compares the China under distinct principle and unifies inter-provincial the allocation of quota in carbon market. But, existing research the most do not links closely the feature of power industry, do not design a set of take into account fair and inter-provincial between difference Generating carbon emission quota allotment approach.

On carbon emission quota allotment approach inside the province, existing original allocation mode mainly has " grandfather's method " and " benchmark Collimation method " two kinds." grandfather's method " is allocated according to the discharge capacity of the historical years of existing a certain enterprise, the obtained quota of enterprise with It is proportional in the discharge capacity of this historical years." reference line method " is then allocated according to reality yield level or discharge capacity, pipe Should office according to total quantity index and anticipated yield level, calculate the allowable emission of specific yield, in this, as enterprise Discharge standard.

Above two distribution method is respectively arranged with certain reason, but all there is certain unjustness.Under " grandfather's method ", discharge Measure high power plant and can obtain more quota of discharge, and low the obtained quota in power plant of current emissions amount is less, this point Method of completing the square to a certain extent, is the protection to maximum discharge power plant, and is unfavorable for driving the positive of power plant's development emission-reduction technology Property, there is the effect of a certain degree of " encouraging to fall behind, urge on progress ", there is certain unfairness in the power plant for low emission. " reference line method " then performs identical standard, the problem that there is clean cut to all of enterprise, has greatly reduced maximum discharge The profit space of power plant.

Summary of the invention

The purpose of the present invention is the weak point overcoming prior art, proposes one district's carbon transaction mechanism transprovincially and issues electrical carbon The building method of emission allowance distribution model, the advantage that the present invention can take into account each method, it is achieved carbon emission allocation of quota relative Fair, it is achieved low carbon development, to reduce consuming excessively of fossil energy, reach effectively to reduce the purpose of carbon emission.

A kind of district transprovincially carbon transaction mechanism that the present invention proposes issues the construction method of electrical carbon emission allowance distribution model, its Being characterised by, the method includes building one-level distribution model and building secondary distribution model, specifically comprises the following steps that

1) build by original allocation model and adjust what two links of model formed again for original allocation model result The one-level distribution model of inter-provincial allocation of quota: original allocation model is so that " each regional aim year per GDP accumulation carbon emission becomes With " it is target, then adjust model and according to each province's energy natural endowment difference and transregional exchange of electric power, the result of original allocation model is entered Row sum-equal matrix；Through two links, determine inter-provincial allocation of quota scheme, obtain the generating carbon emission quota of each province；Specifically include:

1-1) build original allocation model；Assuming there be n region to be allocated, standard year is j, and target year is T, j+ 1 ..., T is the time to be allocated；Original allocation model is made up of object function and constraints:

1-1-1) build original allocation model objective function:

min CCE_max-CCE_min (1)

In formula (1), CCE_max、CCE_minRepresent that the target year unit gross national product GDP carbon emission in each region is tired out respectively Maximum in Ji and minima；Object function is the extreme difference of the target year per GDP accumulation carbon emission amount minimizing each region, The target year each territorial unit GDP accumulation carbon emission i.e. realizing n region to be allocated is convergent；

Original allocation model constraints 1-1-2) is set:

Carbon emission quota total amount retrains:

$\begin{array}{cc}\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}{E}_{i,t,\mathrm{int}}=E_t& t=j+1,j+2,\mathrm{...},T\end{array}---\left(2\right)$

In formula (2), E_i,t,intRepresenting the initial quota of carbon emission that t region i is obtained, i.e. t region i's is initial Allocation result；E_tRepresent the total carbon emissions quota of t；This constraint shows, annual the obtained carbon emission quota in all regions it And it is equal with the total carbon emissions quota of this year；

The accumulation carbon emission value constraint of target year each territorial unit GDP:

${\mathrm{CCE}}_i=\underset{t=j}{\overset{T}{\Σ}}{E}_{i,t,\mathrm{int}}/{\mathrm{GDP}}_{i,T}---\left(3\right)$

In formula (3), CCE_iRepresent the target year per GDP accumulation carbon emission of region i, GDP_i,tRepresent t region i's GDP, this constraint is actually the computing formula of per GDP accumulation carbon emission；

Target year per GDP accumulation carbon emission maximum, minima retrain:

CCE_i≥CCE_min (4)

CCE_i≤CCE_max (5)

In formula (4), CCE_minRepresent the minima in each regional aim year per GDP accumulation carbon emission；In formula (5), CCE_maxRepresent the maximum in the target year per GDP accumulation carbon emission in each region；

Per GDP carbon emission declines constraint year by year:

E_i,t+1,int/GDP_i,t+1≤E_i,t,int/GDP_i,tI=1,2 ... n；T=j+1 ..., T-1 (6)

This constraints shows, during allocation of quota, and the per GDP carbon row in each region in each forcasted years to be allocated Decline the most year by year；

1-2) build and adjust model again for original allocation model result；Adjust model again to original allocation model Result be adjusted after model, including modulation of quotas model based on each provinces and regions energy natural endowment difference and hand over based on transregional electric power The modulation of quotas model changed；

1-2-1) build modulation of quotas model based on each provinces and regions energy natural endowment difference；

Assuming under low carbon development target, each province undertakes identical non-fossil energy installation ratio, then region i is due to non-fossil The energy lacks and the fossil energy installed capacity of required increase is:

W_i,Δf,t=W_i,tW_c,t/W_Σ,t-W_i,c,t (7)

In formula (7): W_i,tRepresent the total installation of generating capacity of t region i, W_c,t、W_Σ,tRepresent the non-fossil of the t whole district respectively Energy installed capacity and whole district's total installation of generating capacity, W_i,c,tRepresent the non-fossil energy installed capacity of t region i, W_i,Δf,tTable Show the non-fossil energy installation vacancy of t region i；

If W_i,f,t＞ 0, represents that the non-fossil energy of region i is deficient, then compensates the carbon quota of region i accordingly； If W_i,Δf,t＜ 0, represents that the non-fossil energy of region i is enriched, then reduces the carbon quota of region i accordingly；

Work as W_i,Δf,tDuring ＞ 0, the carbon quota of region i is compensated accordingly, inter-provincial carbon emission modulation of quotas component E_i,t,prcAs shown in formula (8):

E_i,t,prc=W_i,Δf,tH_i,f,te_i,f,t (8)

In formula (8), E_i,t,prcRepresent the modulation of quotas component based on energy natural endowment difference of t region i, H_i,f,t、 e_i,f,tRepresent the fossil energy average gas-to electricity hourage of t region i and the carbon intensity that averagely generates electricity respectively；This formula table Show, owing to the non-fossil energy of region i is deficient, employing fossil energy is generated electricity, therefore this part of fossil energy is drawn The generating carbon emission amount risen compensates；

Work as W_i,Δf,tDuring ＜ 0, the carbon quota of region i is reduced accordingly, modulation of quotas based on energy natural endowment difference Component E_i,t,prcAs shown in formula (9):

$E_{i,t,prc}=-\frac{W_{i,\mathrm{\Δ}f,t}}{\underset{i\∈N^{-}}{\Σ}{W}_{i,\mathrm{\Δ}f,t}}\underset{i\∈N^{+}}{\Σ}{W}_{i,\mathrm{\Δ}f,t}{H}_{i,f,t}{e}_{i,f,t}---\left(9\right)$

In formula (9): N⁺Represent the area set that non-fossil energy is deficient, i.e. W_i,Δf,tThe area set of ＞ 0；N^-Represent non- The area set that fossil energy is sufficient, i.e. W_i,Δf,tThe area set of ＜ 0；This formula represents, for the province that non-fossil energy is more than needed Part, reduce corresponding carbon emission quota according to the installation ratio that it remains non-fossil energy, thus ensure these electric power saving industries Total quota constant；

1-2-2) build modulation of quotas model based on transregional exchange of electric power；

Assuming to exist between region i and region j exchange of electric power, exchange electricity is Q_ij；Quota based on transregional exchange of electric power Adjustment model is:

ΔE_i,t=Q_ij,te_∑,t,ΔE_j,t=-Q_ij,te_∑,t (10)

In formula (10), Δ E_i,t、ΔE_j,tRepresent region i and the modulation of quotas amount of region j t, e respectively_∑,tRepresent t The carbon intensity that averagely generates electricity of year target, its calculation expression is:

e_∑,t=E_t/Q_Σ,t (11)

In formula (11), E_tRepresent total quota in t area to be allocated, i.e. allow carbon emission amount；Q_Σ,tRepresent to be allocatedly The gross generation of district t；

Therefore, modulation of quotas component based on transregional exchange of electric power is:

${\mathrm{\ΔE}}_{i,t}=\underset{j\∈N_i}{\Σ}{Q}_{ij,t}{e}_{\Σ,t}---\left(12\right)$

In formula (12), Δ E_i,tRepresent t region i modulation of quotas based on transregional exchange of electric power component, N_iRepresent and district The regional ensemble of exchange of electric power, Q is there is between the i of territory_ij,tRepresent exchange electricity, Q between t region i and region j_ij＞ 0 represents Region i is to region j power transmission, otherwise then represents by region j to region i power transmission；

1-3) first order calculation distribution model result；

By the result of calculated original allocation model and the result summation that adjusts model again, obtain the carbon row of each provinces and regions Put allocation of quota result, as the allocation result of the one-level distribution model of inter-provincial quota, as shown in formula (13):

E_i,t=E_i,t,int+E_i,t,prc+ΔE_i,t(13)

In formula, E_i,tRepresent the total carbon emissions quota of t region i, E_i,t,int、E_i,t,prc、ΔE_i,tRepresent t respectively The original allocation result of region i, modulation of quotas component based on energy natural endowment difference and quota based on transregional exchange of electric power are adjusted Whole component；

2) build with one-level distribution model result as boundary condition, one-level is distributed each province's carbon emission quota that model obtains The secondary distribution model that allocation result is distributed between the most each power plant；Secondary distribution model is based on fair allocat rule structure Build, as shown in formula (14):

$\begin{array}{c}\begin{array}{cc}{E}_{g,t}\frac{E_{g0}}{1+e_{g0}^p}\mathrm{\η}=\frac{e_{g0}{G}_{g0}}{1+e_{g0}^p}\mathrm{\η}& p\∈(0,1)\end{array}\\ \underset{g}{\Σ}{E}_{g,t}=E_{i,t}\end{array}---\left(14\right)$

In formula (14), E_g,tRepresent the carbon emission quota that t power plant g is obtained, e_g0Represent standard year power plant g's Carbon intensity；η is the arithmetic number less than 1, represents the reduction degree of carbon emission, and η is the least, and degree of cutting down is the biggest, E_i,tIt it is step 1-3) calculated one-level distribution model result, i.e. all power plant in the total carbon emissions quota of t region i, that is region i Carbon emission quota sum；

Being solved to of second-level model: according to standard year carbon intensity and the generating value in each power plant, by degree η of reduction Represent quota E in each power plant_g,t, then solve in second formula according to formula (14) and obtain the value of reduction degree η, finally First formula according to formula (14), obtains quota E in each power plant_g,t；

3) distribute model according to two-stage, obtain inter-provincial of generating carbon emission allocation of quota under transprovincially district's carbon transaction mechanism The generating carbon emission quota of allocative decision and the most each power plant.

Beneficial effects of the present invention:

The present invention, on the basis of the existing pilot experience of carbon transaction inside the province, fully combines the spy of district's carbon emission transaction transprovincially Point, it is proposed that the generating carbon emission allocation of quota model under a kind of district transprovincially carbon emission mechanism of exchange.The present invention includes two fraction Join model: one-level distribution model is inter-provincial allocation of quota, and first this model considers economic development principle and historic responsibility Principle, establishes at the beginning of inter-provincial generating carbon emission quota so that target year each territorial unit GDP accumulation carbon emission is convergent for principle Begin distribution model, is saved then in conjunction with the difference of each provinces and regions generation assets distribution situation and the carbon transfer of transregional exchange of electric power Between border, allocation of quota adjusts again；Secondary distribution model is allocation of quota inside the province, have studied the allocation of quota in the most each power plant Method.The generating carbon emission allocation of quota model of the present invention, based on fair allocat rule, the advantage that can take into account each method, it is achieved The fair relatively of carbon emission allocation of quota, transprovincially district's carbon transaction market access initial stage be easier to accepted by each side, can be across The generating initial quota of carbon emission quota under the carbon transaction mechanism of provinces and regions provides technological guidance, it is achieved low carbon development, minimizing fossil energy Consuming excessively of source, reaches effectively to reduce the purpose of carbon emission.

Detailed description of the invention

A kind of district transprovincially carbon transaction mechanism that the present invention proposes issues the construction method of electrical carbon emission allowance distribution model, under Face further describes as follows in conjunction with specific embodiments.

A kind of district transprovincially carbon transaction mechanism that the present invention proposes issues the construction method of electrical carbon emission allowance distribution model, bag Include structure one-level distribution model and build secondary distribution model, specifically comprising the following steps that

1) build by original allocation model and adjust what two links of model formed again for original allocation model result The one-level distribution model of inter-provincial allocation of quota: original allocation model is so that " each regional aim year per GDP accumulation carbon emission becomes With " it is target, then adjust model and according to each province's energy natural endowment difference and transregional exchange of electric power, the result of original allocation model is entered Row sum-equal matrix；Through two links, determine inter-provincial allocation of quota scheme, obtain the generating carbon emission quota of each province；Specifically include:

1-1) build original allocation model；Assuming there be n region to be allocated, standard year is j, and target year is T, j+ 1 ..., T is the time to be allocated；Original allocation model is with " target year per GDP accumulation carbon emission is convergent " target, by target Function and constraints are constituted:

1-1-1) build original allocation model objective function:

min CCE_max-CCE_min (1)

In formula (1), CCE_max、CCE_minRepresent that the target year unit gross national product GDP carbon emission in each region is tired out respectively Maximum in Ji and minima；Object function is the extreme difference of the target year per GDP accumulation carbon emission amount minimizing each region, The target year each territorial unit GDP accumulation carbon emission i.e. realizing n region to be allocated is convergent；

Original allocation model constraints 1-1-2) is set:

Carbon emission quota total amount retrains:

$\begin{array}{cc}\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}{E}_{i,t,\mathrm{int}}=E_t& t=j+1,j+2,\mathrm{...},T\end{array}---\left(2\right)$

In formula (2), E_i,t,intRepresenting the initial quota of carbon emission that t region i is obtained, i.e. t region i's is initial Allocation result；E_tRepresent the total carbon emissions quota of t；This constraint shows, annual the obtained carbon emission quota in all regions it And it is equal with the total carbon emissions quota of this year；

The accumulation carbon emission value constraint of target year each territorial unit GDP:

${\mathrm{CCE}}_i=\underset{t=j}{\overset{T}{\Σ}}{E}_{i,t,\mathrm{int}}/{\mathrm{GDP}}_{i,T}---\left(3\right)$

In formula (3), CCE_iRepresent the target year unit gross national product GDP accumulation carbon emission of region i, GDP_i,tRepresent The GDP of t region i, this constraint is actually the computing formula of per GDP accumulation carbon emission；

Target year per GDP accumulation carbon emission maximum, minima retrain:

CCE_i≥CCE_min (4)

CCE_i≤CCE_max (5)

In formula (4), CCE_minRepresent the minima in each regional aim year per GDP accumulation carbon emission；In formula (5), CCE_maxRepresent the maximum in the target year per GDP accumulation carbon emission in each region；

Per GDP carbon emission declines constraint year by year:

E_i,t+1,int/GDP_i,t+1≤E_i,t,int/GDP_i,tI=1,2 ... n；T=j+1 ..., T-1 (6)

This constraints shows, during allocation of quota, each forcasted years to be allocated (i.e. needs to carry out allocation of quota The coming years) in the per GDP carbon emission amount in each region decline year by year, meet the actual of power system energy-saving and emission-reduction and tell Ask, make allocation of quota scheme be consistent with practical situation；

Formula (1)～formula (6) collectively form the original allocation model of inter-provincial quota, and this model is linear programming model, can Directly invoke Cplex software kit to solve.

1-2) build and adjust model again for original allocation model result；Adjust model again to original allocation model Result be adjusted after model, including modulation of quotas model based on each provinces and regions energy natural endowment difference and hand over based on transregional electric power The modulation of quotas model changed；

1-2-1) build modulation of quotas model based on each provinces and regions energy natural endowment difference；

(for power industry, the generating carbon intensity in a certain area is more depending on the generating of this area Resource distribution situation, posteriori Technology effort degree is extremely limited.Accordingly, it would be desirable to according to the generation assets distribution situation of each department Carry out corresponding modulation of quotas.)

Assuming under low carbon development target, each province undertakes identical non-fossil energy installation ratio, then region i is due to non-fossil The energy lacks and the fossil energy installed capacity of required increase is:

W_i,Δf,t=W_i,tW_c,t/W_Σ,t-W_i,c,t (7)

In formula (7), W_i,tRepresent the total installation of generating capacity of t region i, W_c,t、W_Σ,tRepresent the non-fossil of the t whole district respectively Energy installed capacity and whole district's total installation of generating capacity, W_i,c,tRepresent the non-fossil energy installed capacity of t region i, W_i,Δf,tTable Show the non-fossil energy installation vacancy of t region i；

If W_i,f,t＞ 0, represents that the non-fossil energy of region i is deficient, then compensates the carbon quota of region i accordingly； If W_i,Δf,t＜ 0, represents that the non-fossil energy of region i is enriched, then reduces the carbon quota of region i accordingly；

Work as W_i,Δf,tDuring ＞ 0, the carbon quota of region i is compensated accordingly, inter-provincial carbon emission modulation of quotas component E_i,t,prcAs shown in formula (8):

E_i,t,prc=W_i,Δf,tH_i,f,te_i,f,t (8)

In formula (8), E_i,t,prcRepresent the modulation of quotas component based on energy natural endowment difference of t region i, H_i,f,t、 e_i,f,tRepresent the fossil energy average gas-to electricity hourage of t region i and the carbon intensity that averagely generates electricity respectively；This formula table Show, owing to the non-fossil energy of region i is deficient, employing fossil energy is generated electricity, therefore this part of fossil energy is drawn The generating carbon emission amount risen compensates；

Work as W_i,Δf,tDuring ＜ 0, the carbon quota of region i is reduced accordingly, modulation of quotas based on energy natural endowment difference Component E_i,t,prcAs shown in formula (9):

$E_{i,t,prc}=-\frac{W_{i,\mathrm{\Δ}f,t}}{\underset{i\∈N^{-}}{\Σ}{W}_{i,\mathrm{\Δ}f,t}}\underset{i\∈N^{+}}{\Σ}{W}_{i,\mathrm{\Δ}f,t}{H}_{i,f,t}{e}_{i,f,t}---\left(9\right)$

In formula (9): N⁺Represent area set (the i.e. W that non-fossil energy is deficient_i,Δf,tThe area set of ＞ 0), N^-Represent non- Area set (the i.e. W that fossil energy is sufficient_i,Δf,tThe area set of ＜ 0)；This formula represents, for the province that non-fossil energy is more than needed Part, reduce corresponding carbon emission quota according to the installation ratio that it remains non-fossil energy, thus ensure these electric power saving industries Total quota constant；

1-2-2) build modulation of quotas model based on transregional exchange of electric power；

(each provinces and regions of China are in geographical distribution, resource general layout.There is larger difference in the aspects such as the industrial structure so that area Between there is the flowing of substantial amounts of products & services, thus also make the carbon emission lying in Commodity Flow carry out between each department Complicated transfer.For power industry, along with the expansion of China's Grid scale, the exchange of electric power between region is more Come the most frequent, the implicit carbon emission transfer that transregional exchange of electric power is caused, need to adjust in the allocation of quota of inter-provincial Whole.)

Assuming to exist between region i and region j exchange of electric power, exchange electricity is Q_ij(Q_ij＞ 0 represents that region i is to region j Power transmission, otherwise then represent by region j to region i power transmission)；Modulation of quotas model based on transregional exchange of electric power is:

ΔE_i,t=Q_ij,te_Σ,t,ΔE_j,t=-Q_ij,te_Σ,t (10)

In formula (10), Δ E_i,t、ΔE_j,tRepresent region i and the modulation of quotas amount of region j t, e respectively_Σ,tRepresent t The carbon intensity that averagely generates electricity of year target, its calculation expression is:

e_Σ,t=E_t/Q_Σ,t (11)

In formula (11), E_tRepresent total quota in t area to be allocated, i.e. allow carbon emission amount；Q_Σ,tRepresent to be allocatedly The gross generation of district t；

Therefore, modulation of quotas component based on transregional exchange of electric power is:

${\mathrm{\ΔE}}_{i,t}=\underset{j\∈N_i}{\Σ}{Q}_{ij,t}{e}_{\Σ,t}---\left(12\right)$

In formula (12), Δ E_i,tRepresent t region i modulation of quotas based on transregional exchange of electric power component, N_iRepresent and district The regional ensemble of exchange of electric power, Q is there is between the i of territory_ij,tRepresent exchange electricity, Q between t region i and region j_ij＞ 0 represents Region i is to region j power transmission, otherwise then represents by region j to region i power transmission；

1-3) first order calculation distribution model result；

By the result of calculated original allocation model and the result summation that adjusts model again, obtain the carbon row of each provinces and regions Put allocation of quota result, as the allocation result of the one-level distribution model of inter-provincial quota, as shown in formula (13):

E_i,t=E_i,t,int+E_i,t,prc+ΔE_i,t (13)

In formula, E_i,tRepresent the total carbon emissions quota of t region i, E_i,t,int、E_i,t,prc、ΔE_i,tRepresent t respectively The original allocation result of region i, modulation of quotas component based on energy natural endowment difference and quota based on transregional exchange of electric power are adjusted Whole component；

2) build with one-level distribution model result as boundary condition, one-level is distributed each province's carbon emission quota that model obtains The secondary distribution model that allocation result is distributed between the most each power plant: secondary distribution model is based on fair allocat rule structure Build；

Fair allocat rule specifically includes:

. the carbon emission reduction rate of each power plant becomes positive correlation with its carbon intensity, the power plant that carbon intensity is high, and reduction of discharging rate is the most more High；

. the carbon emission quota that each power plant is assigned to is proportionate with its carbon intensity；

. the carbon emission that each power plant is assigned to is joined and should be proportionate with Criterion emission amount；

Build shown in secondary distribution model such as formula (14) according to above-mentioned fair allocat principle:

$\begin{array}{c}\begin{array}{cc}{E}_{g,t}\frac{E_{g0}}{1+e_{g0}^p}\mathrm{\η}=\frac{e_{g0}{G}_{g0}}{1+e_{g0}^p}\mathrm{\η}& p\∈(0,1)\end{array}\\ \underset{g}{\Σ}{E}_{g,t}=E_{i,t}\end{array}---\left(14\right)$

In formula (14), E_g,tRepresent the carbon emission quota that t power plant g is obtained, e_g0Represent standard year power plant g's Carbon intensity；η represents the reduction degree of carbon emission, and η is the least, cuts down degree the biggest (span of η is 0～1), E_i,tIt is Step 1-3) calculated one-level distribution model result, i.e. all in the total carbon emissions quota of t region i, that is region i The carbon emission quota sum of power plant.

Being solved to of second-level model: according to standard year carbon intensity and the generating value in each power plant, by degree η of reduction Represent quota E in each power plant_g,t, then solve in second formula according to formula (14) and obtain the value of reduction degree η, finally First formula according to formula (14) obtains the quota in each power plant；

3) distribute model according to two-stage, obtain inter-provincial of generating carbon emission allocation of quota under transprovincially district's carbon transaction mechanism The generating carbon emission quota of allocative decision and the most each power plant.

The inventive method has taken into full account the general fairness doctrine, takes into account the difference between each province simultaneously, is public affairs relatively Flat scheme, can realize low carbon development, reduce the consuming excessively of fossil energy, reach effectively to reduce the purpose of carbon emission, for across Generating carbon emission allocation of quota under the carbon transaction mechanism of provinces and regions provides a kind of new method and technological guidance.

Claims (1)

1. one kind transprovincially district's carbon transaction mechanism issue the construction method of electrical carbon emission allowance distribution model, it is characterised in that the party Method includes building one-level distribution model and building secondary distribution model, specifically comprises the following steps that

1) build by original allocation model and for original allocation model result adjust that two links of model form again inter-provincial Between allocation of quota one-level distribution model: original allocation model with " each regional aim year per GDP accumulation carbon emission is convergent " is Target, then adjust model and according to each province's energy natural endowment difference and transregional exchange of electric power, the result of original allocation model is adjusted Whole；Through two links, determine inter-provincial allocation of quota scheme, obtain the generating carbon emission quota of each province；Specifically include:

1-1) build original allocation model；Assuming there be n region to be allocated, standard year is j, and target year is T, j+1 ..., T For the time to be allocated；Original allocation model is made up of object function and constraints:

1-1-1) build original allocation model objective function:

min CCE_max-CCE_min (1)

In formula (1), CCE_max、CCE_minRepresent respectively in the target year unit gross national product GDP carbon emission accumulation in each region Maximum and minima；Object function is the extreme difference of the target year per GDP accumulation carbon emission amount minimizing each region, the most in fact The target year each territorial unit GDP accumulation carbon emission in existing n region to be allocated is convergent；

Original allocation model constraints 1-1-2) is set:

Carbon emission quota total amount retrains:

$\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}{E}_{i,t,\mathrm{int}}=E_t,t=j+1,j+2,...,T---\left(2\right)$

In formula (2), E_i,t,intRepresent the initial quota of carbon emission that t region i is obtained, the i.e. original allocation of t region i Result；E_tRepresent the total carbon emissions quota of t；This constraint shows, annual the obtained carbon emission quota sum in all regions and The total carbon emissions quota of this year is equal；

The accumulation carbon emission value constraint of target year each territorial unit GDP:

${\mathrm{CCE}}_i=\underset{t=j}{\overset{T}{\Σ}}{E}_{i,t,\mathrm{int}}/{\mathrm{GDP}}_{i,T}---\left(3\right)$

In formula (3), CCE_iRepresent the target year per GDP accumulation carbon emission of region i, GDP_i,tRepresent the GDP of t region i, should Constraint is actually the computing formula of per GDP accumulation carbon emission；

Target year per GDP accumulation carbon emission maximum, minima retrain:

CCE_i≥CCE_min (4)

CCE_i≤CCE_max (5)

In formula (4), CCE_minRepresent the minima in each regional aim year per GDP accumulation carbon emission；In formula (5), CCE_maxTable Show the maximum in the target year per GDP accumulation carbon emission in each region；

Per GDP carbon emission declines constraint year by year:

E_i,t+1,int/GDP_i,t+1≤E_i,t,int/GDP_i,tI=1,2 ... n；T=j+1 ..., T-1 (6)

This constraints shows, during allocation of quota, and the per GDP carbon emission amount in each region in each forcasted years to be allocated Decline year by year；

1-2) build and adjust model again for original allocation model result；Adjusting model again is the result to original allocation model Model after being adjusted, including modulation of quotas model based on each provinces and regions energy natural endowment difference and based on transregional exchange of electric power Modulation of quotas model；

1-2-1) build modulation of quotas model based on each provinces and regions energy natural endowment difference；

Assuming under low carbon development target, each province undertakes identical non-fossil energy installation ratio, then region i is due to non-fossil energy Lack and the fossil energy installed capacity of required increase is:

W_i,Δf,t=W_i,tW_c,t/W_∑,t-W_i,c,t (7)

In formula (7), W_i,tRepresent the total installation of generating capacity of t region i, W_c,t、W_∑,tRepresent the non-fossil energy of the t whole district respectively Installed capacity and whole district's total installation of generating capacity, W_i,c,tRepresent the non-fossil energy installed capacity of t region i, W_i,Δf,tRepresent t The non-fossil energy installation vacancy in year region i；

If W_i,f,t＞ 0, represents that the non-fossil energy of region i is deficient, then compensates the carbon quota of region i accordingly；If W_i,Δf,t＜ 0, represents that the non-fossil energy of region i is enriched, then reduces the carbon quota of region i accordingly；

Work as W_i,Δf,tDuring ＞ 0, the carbon quota of region i is compensated accordingly, inter-provincial carbon emission modulation of quotas component E_i,t,prc As shown in formula (8):

E_i,t,prc=W_i,Δf,tH_i,f,te_i,f,t (8)

In formula (8), E_i,t,prcRepresent the modulation of quotas component based on energy natural endowment difference of t region i, H_i,f,t、e_i,f,tPoint Do not represent the fossil energy average gas-to electricity hourage of t region i and the carbon intensity that averagely generates electricity；This formula represents, by Deficient in the non-fossil energy of region i, employing fossil energy is generated electricity, therefore cause this part of fossil energy sends out Electrical carbon discharge capacity compensates；

Work as W_i,Δf,tDuring ＜ 0, the carbon quota of region i is reduced accordingly, modulation of quotas component based on energy natural endowment difference E_i,t,prcAs shown in formula (9):

$E_{i,t,prc}=-\frac{W_{i,\mathrm{\Δ}f,t}}{\underset{i\∈N^{-}}{\Σ}{W}_{i,\mathrm{\Δ}f,t}}\underset{i\∈N^{+}}{\Σ}{W}_{i,\mathrm{\Δ}f,t}{H}_{i,f,t}{e}_{i,f,t}---\left(9\right)$

In formula (9), N⁺Represent the area set that non-fossil energy is deficient, i.e. W_i,Δf,tThe area set of ＞ 0；N^-Represent non-fossil energy The area set that source is sufficient, i.e. W_i,Δf,tThe area set of ＜ 0；This formula represents, the province having more than needed for non-fossil energy, according to Its installation ratio remaining non-fossil energy reduces corresponding carbon emission quota, thus total quota of these electric power saving industries is not Become；

1-2-2) build modulation of quotas model based on transregional exchange of electric power；

Assuming to exist between region i and region j exchange of electric power, exchange electricity is Q_ij；Modulation of quotas based on transregional exchange of electric power Model is:

ΔE_i,t=Q_ij,te_∑,t,ΔE_j,t=-Q_ij,te_∑,t (10)

In formula (10), Δ E_i,t、ΔE_j,tRepresent region i and the modulation of quotas amount of region j t, e respectively_∑,tRepresent t mesh Target averagely generates electricity carbon intensity, and its calculation expression is:

e_∑,t=E_t/Q_∑,t (11)

In formula (11), E_tRepresent total quota in t area to be allocated, i.e. allow carbon emission amount；Q_∑,tRepresent to be allocated regional The gross generation of t；

Therefore, modulation of quotas component based on transregional exchange of electric power is:

${\mathrm{\ΔE}}_{i,t}=\underset{j\∈N_i}{\Σ}{Q}_{ij,t}{e}_{\mathrm{\Σ},t}---\left(12\right)$

In formula (12), Δ E_i,tRepresent t region i modulation of quotas based on transregional exchange of electric power component, N_iRepresent with region i it Between there is the regional ensemble of exchange of electric power, Q_ij,tRepresent exchange electricity, Q between t region i and region j_ij＞ 0 represents region i To region j power transmission, otherwise then represent by region j to region i power transmission；

1-3) first order calculation distribution model result；

By the result of calculated original allocation model and the result summation that adjusts model again, the carbon emission obtaining each provinces and regions is joined Volume allocation result, as the allocation result of the one-level distribution model of inter-provincial quota, as shown in formula (13):

E_i,t=E_i,t,int+E_i,t,prc+ΔE_i,t (13)

In formula, E_i,tRepresent the total carbon emissions quota of t region i, E_i,t,int、E_i,t,prc、ΔE_i,tRepresent t region i respectively Original allocation result, modulation of quotas component based on energy natural endowment difference and modulation of quotas based on transregional exchange of electric power divide Amount；

2) build with one-level distribution model result as boundary condition, one-level is distributed each province's carbon emission allocation of quota that model obtains The secondary distribution model that result is distributed between the most each power plant；Secondary distribution model builds based on fair allocat rule, as Shown in formula (14):

$\begin{array}{cc}{E}_{g,t}=\frac{E_{g0}}{1+e_{g0}^p}\mathrm{\η}=\frac{e_{g0}{G}_{g0}}{1+e_{g0}^p}\mathrm{\η}& p\∈(0,1)\\ \underset{g}{\mathrm{\Σ}}{E}_{g,t}=E_{i,t}& \end{array}---\left(14\right)$

In formula (14), E_g,tRepresent the carbon emission quota that t power plant g is obtained, e_g0Represent the carbon row of standard year power plant g Put intensity；The span of η is 0～1, E_i,tIt is step 1-3) calculated one-level distribution model result, i.e. t region i Total carbon emissions quota, that is the carbon emission quota sum of all power plant in the i of region；

Being solved to of second-level model: according to standard year carbon intensity and the generating value in each power plant, represent by degree η of reduction Quota E in each power plant_g,t, then solve in second formula according to formula (14) and obtain the value of reduction degree η, finally according to First formula of formula (14), obtains quota E in each power plant_g,t；

3) distribute model according to two-stage, obtain inter-provincial distribution of generating carbon emission allocation of quota under transprovincially district's carbon transaction mechanism The generating carbon emission quota of scheme and the most each power plant.