CN105894200A - First industry user loss assessment method under blackout - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention provides a first industry user loss assessment method under a blackout, and belongs to the technical field of electric power system reliability. The method comprises the steps of: combined with the production characteristics of typical users of the first industry and the blackout characteristics, analyzing that the economic loss of the unit load and the blackout time length meet an S curve, and utilizing a logistic function to establish a first industry user blackout loss assessment model; utilizing a user investigation method to obtain blackout loss data of the typical users, utilizing a MATLAB program software to obtain a blackout loss curve by means of fitting, verifying the loss model established before, and obtaining specific parameters; and by the organic combination of a construction function method and the user investigation method, obtaining a specific blackout loss assessment model applicable to first industry users. According to the invention, the specific blackout loss model is established, the defect that only the utilization of the user investigation method has is not convincing is also overcome, and the combination of the construction function method and the user investigation method ensures that the economic loss of first industry users caused by the blackout accident can be accurately calculated.

Description

One is had a power failure on a large scale lower primary industry user's loss appraisal method

Technical field

The invention belongs to Power System Reliability technical field, in particular, provide one to have a power failure on a large scale lower primary industry user's loss appraisal method, it is applied to Economic loss evaluation when primary industry user burst is had a power failure on a large scale, primary industry loss of outage assessment models is drawn by comprehensive Custom interruption cost characteristic of analyzing, then user investigation method is taked to obtain different regions, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery typical user loss of outage data of the factors such as different scales of operation, MATLAB program software is used to simulate the loss of outage value relation curve with the persistent period, and then determine design parameter while loss of outage assessment models is verified.To sum up both construct the concrete loss of outage assessment models of applicable primary industry user, to improving primary industry electric network reliability and realizing loss of outage assessment and have very important realistic meaning.

Background technology

Present stage, along with society's every profession and trade intensification to electric power degree of dependence, electric network reliability problem causes to be paid much attention to for both sides, the most also along with the contradictory problems powered between reliable seriality and system performance driving economy.Power consumer intentionally gets safe and reliable, the supply of electric power of economy, high-quality, but it practice, system can be caused electricity shortage or interruption by the interference of extraneous factor, thus cause huge economic loss and bad social influence；For power supply department, power supply reliability to be improved, being necessary for increasing additional investment, how high-efficiency and economic implements power grid construction and operation, provides optimum power supply to be Utilities Electric Co.'s difficult problem urgently to be resolved hurrily with minimum putting into.

At present, research worker processes the equilibrium relation between Power System Reliability and economy by combination technology and economic means, and wherein reliability benefit assessment is the important component part of research.Reliability benefit refers to the loss of outage that the benefit making power customer obtain because electric network reliability level reach a certain height, i.e. power customer reduce.Therefore in Practical Project, the economic loss (i.e. loss of outage) that estimation supply of electric power interrupts bringing society is the conventional effective means of reliability benefit assessment, can go out, with direct reaction, the economic loss caused owing to Power System Reliability is not enough, be widely used in power network planning scheme choose than choosing, electrical equipment spare capacity, the aspect such as power grid asset whole-life cycle fee and power supply enterprise's Efficacy Profile evaluation.Therefore, research Custom interruption cost is to assessment and optimizes Power System Reliability, power network development of making rational planning for, and has important practical significance.

When so-called loss of outage refers to cause power failure when supply of electric power is not enough or interrupts, society the whole economic losses undertaken, including power supply department economic loss and power consumer economic loss two parts.The electricity charge loss that the former mainly cannot cause to area under one's jurisdiction customer power supply because having a power failure, is easier to calculate；The latter is affected by class of subscriber, the many factors such as moment, power failure frequency, interruption duration occur that have a power failure directly facing different types of power consumer, loss of outage, is calculated complexity.This patent object of study is primary industry user, and as the infrastructural industries of national economy, actual from theory or engineering, the research of its loss of outage seldom relates to.As large agricultural country, China is engaged in the population of the primary industry and is in the great majority, and comparatively speaking, the extension of rural power grids is delayed, and operation and management level is low, power supply quality and poor reliability, serious restriction primary industry power consumption and the quick growth of production value.Rural power grids significantly take on a new look in recent years, but to electric network reliability optimized evaluation still in the primary stage, study and set up the loss of outage appraisal procedure being suitable for primary industry user, have initiative meaning for improving rural power grids reliability.

For the appraisal procedure of loss of outage, mainly use average electricity price conversion method of multiplicity in China, produce electricity than method and total owning.Average electricity price conversion method of multiplicity refers to that the interruption cost caused because Power System Reliability is low can be multiplied by conversion multiple with average electricity price at that time and estimate, 20 to 50 times of domestic employing average electricity price appropriate.In product electricity refers to certain period than method, usually 1 year, the gross national product in somewhere and the ratio of power consumption, unit was unit/kWh, can be from macroscopic perspective approximate evaluation loss of outage.Total owning refer to the initial outlay of certain engineering and use during because of the failure costs sum that causes of power failure, can always have expense result select different investment and the scheme of different reliability levels by calculating.The analysis found that these several appraisal procedures are partial to the qualitative analysis stage, can only obtain roughly loss of outage result, lack definite scientific evidence.In recent years, along with loss of outage research is goed deep into, it is widely recognized as by the research method that user investigation method gets based on loss of outage data.Bai Jian flies etc., in " loss of outage investigation and estimation ", industry and commerce and the resident of China's Xi'an region to be used the method filling in questionnaire face to face, it is thus achieved that more satisfied survey result, and sums up the loss of outage appraisal procedure of this area with this；It is the Custom interruption cost investigation method being suitable for China's feature that superfine " Customer Interruption Costs Investigation Method for China " delivered of king proposes questionnaire method, and introduces the important step carrying out questionnaire survey work.But at user, the result of investigation has subjectivity, and region difference causes data acquisition to lack universality, therefore, takes merely user investigation method assessment loss of outage not have cogency.It addition, use tectonic implication to set up the specific load loss function relevant with power off time, and combine power failure payload and power off time calculates loss of outage.Chen Xiao etc. with urban distribution network as object of study, provide the method estimating loss of outage in " urban distribution network Custom interruption cost and the research of evaluation method thereof " by structuring user's loss of outage function, and with the feasibility of case verification method；Liu Huaidong etc. propose with reference to other area loss of outage function in " a kind of power consumer loss of outage function evaluation method ", consume the loss of outage of the average benefit estimation this area of 1kWh further according to institute's research area's power consumer；Zhang Yongjuns etc. propose, according to year power consumption and the statistical data of total output value, to use regression analysis and parameter estimation principle, draw sorted users unit loss of outage function in " determination of sorted users unit loss of outage function and application ".But, loss of outage assessment is affected by interruption duration, the loss many factors such as loading, user type, and function representation method is difficult to reflect practical situation comprehensively.It addition, existing loss of outage function representation is the most directly perceived, although obtain loss of outage data by inquiry and simulate the relation curve of Subscriber Unit loss of outage value and interruption duration, but be the absence of general concrete loss of outage model.

Summary of the invention

It is an object of the invention to provide one to have a power failure on a large scale lower primary industry user's loss appraisal method, the method combines the industry characteristics of primary industry typical user and power failure specificity analysis goes out the economic loss of its specific load and meets " S " curve with interruption duration, and Logistic function can be used to set up primary industry Custom interruption cost assessment models；Different geographical, managemental type and the primary industry typical user loss of outage data of scale of operation are obtained by user investigation method, use MATLAB program software matching to obtain loss of outage curve, verified with the loss model set up before and obtain design parameter；By the combination of tectonic implication Yu user investigation method, obtain being applicable to the concrete loss of outage assessment models of primary industry user.The method had not only achieved and has set up concrete loss of outage model but also overcome the shortcoming taking merely user investigation method not have cogency, and both complement each other more can accurately calculate primary industry user's economic loss that large-scale blackout causes.

Owing to premise of the present invention is the direct economic loss under assessment primary industry user has a power failure on a large scale, the prior notice that has a power failure with power failure frequency, user is unrelated, considers class of subscriber, interruption duration and three kinds of important factor in order of loss loading.Lower primary industry user's loss appraisal method of having a power failure on a large scale specifically comprises the steps of

(1) according to " industrial sectors of national economy classification " (GB/T 4754-2011), the primary industry includes the big class of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery four.The electric load that wherein desirable load consumes when including being engaged in various proportion of crop planting activity, the cultivation of forest, the electric load planted, foster, fell, consume in transportation；The electric load consumed in the animal feeding activity being engaged in for obtaining various poultry；In ocean, inland waters cultivation and the electric load consumed when fishing for activity and the electric load consumed time agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries production activity is carried out various Support services.

(2) comprehensive analysis agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery electricity consumption draws loss of outage assessment models with loss of outage characteristic.1) agricultural: farming power mainly includes crop irrigation and drainage electricity consumption, agricultural production electricity consumption, agricultural byproducts processing electricity consumption etc., wherein maximum with irrigation and drainage electricity consumption accounting, primary study crop irrigation and drainage loss of outage.Major part crop is strong at irrigation electricity consumption collection metabolism in mid-term, water requirement is many, stand and resist arid ability weak, crop is also in fast growing period, supply of electric power is once interrupt just cannot irrigating, having a strong impact on the normal growth of crop, if power off time was up to several days, long-term cropping is faced with the danger of the withered underproduction.Under same case, industrial crops loss of outage is bigger than cereal crops, and drought-enduring plant is less than not drought-enduring plant loss of outage.For same crop, identical power off time, different growth stage, the loss caused is the most different, but is in the loss maximum that critical period of water need power failure causes, so going out loss of outage according to long-term cropping critical demand irrigation specificity analysis to be divided into for three stages: the stage one is loss initial period, the crop being in critical period of water need still has certain drought-resistant ability, recovering supply of electric power again after short time power failure to irrigate, crop is substantially unaffected, and economic loss is less；Stage two is for losing the quick rise period, the long-term cropping experience long period of critical period of water need has a power failure, because (southern area cannot be irrigated in time, rainwater is relatively many and can not get draining flooded fields in time) have a strong impact on the normal growth of crop, economic loss quickly increases with the prolongation of interruption duration.Stage three is the loss period of saturation, has a power failure even more long-time more than one day, and large area crop cannot be irrigated withered death occurs, and economic loss reaches maximum, and loss of outage curve tends towards stability.2) forestry: large-scale forest farm electricity consumption Regional Dispersion, load density is little, and electricity consumption is in periodically, and power factor is low, and after power failure, timber cannot cut down, transport, and the economic loss caused is the least, the loss of outage in primary study breeding, raising seedling base.Breeding, raising seedling base requires height to power supply reliability, and supply water in base, drip irrigation, and except disease, worm, crop smothering, dense fog cooling, is incubated and the auxiliary facility such as fertilising all relies on electric power and completes.Especially indoor temperature, humidity and illuminance, it is necessary to rely on electricity control and regulate.If it occur that power outage, in the short time, seedling still can be born, and having a power failure for a long time causes indoor environment significant change, and seedling is difficult in adapt to withered death phenomenon occur, causes base economic loss huge.To sum up analyze and be divided into three phases according to the loss of outage of interruption duration breeding, raising seedling industry: lose the starting stage, the breeding, raising seedling base short time has a power failure, the indexs such as indoor temperature, humidity and illuminance are in allowed band, and seedling self has certain resistivity, so stage one breeding, raising seedling base loss of outage is little；Loss Fast growth phase, has a power failure the long period, and in base, the index such as temperature, humidity and illuminance is out of hand, growth of seedling environment runs down and occurs that large area is withered, along with continuing of power off time, the mortality rate of seedling promotes rapidly, and economic loss the most quickly increases.Loss saturation stage, power off time exceedes certain time limit, even if seedling the most all death that survival ability is strong, economic loss reaches maximum, and loss of outage curve tends towards stability.3) animal husbandry: animal husbandry electricity consumption is mainly reflected in raising and the prevention and cure of pollution electricity consumption of large-scale plant.Power failure can cause animal husbandry by-products to produce, gather and milk product cannot cold preservation and processing, cause because having a power failure poultry to environmental change is uncomfortable the dead economic loss produced, additionally have a power failure and tremendous economic loss also resulted in for incubator base of.In sum, the loss of outage curve of animal husbandry is divided into three phases: the loss starting stage, short time power failure, poultry and the incubator base of of raising are unaffected, and some milk products are the most fresh-keeping after power recovery.Loss Fast growth phase, has a power failure the long period, and poultry needs feeding, feeds water and except excrement, the mechanized equipment such as feeding, drinking-water cannot work.Particularly torridity summer or cold winter, environmental control equipment cannot work, and poultry occurs being not suitable with symptom, and along with the continuity of power off time, poultry cannot stand high temperature or cold and large area occurs that pathological changes, economic loss increase sharply.Loss saturation stage, large-scale plant experience has a power failure for one day the most for a long time, raises and death occurs in the poultry hatched, and milk product can not get fresh-keeping etc., and economic loss reaches maximum, and loss of outage curve tends towards stability.4) fishery: electricity consumption includes sea water, freshwater aquiculture and fishes for electricity consumption, the storage electricity consumption etc. of aquatic products.Aquatic products Large Scale Death can be caused if it occur that have a power failure on a large scale, bring huge economic loss；Aquatic products for storing with refrigerator-freezer, freezer there will be rotten because having a power failure for a long time；Additionally fishery normally fish for the most power failure influence.Fish farm basic electricity equipment includes feeding apparatus, aerator, water level detecting equipment and water temperature control equipment etc., must assure that reliable persistence is powered, because once having a power failure, aerator quits work at once, the aquatic products raised there will be anoxia and dead, and for fishery, consequence is the most serious.Raising characteristic according to aquatic products to obtain fishery loss of outage and be divided into for three stages: the loss starting stage, fish farm meets with suddenly power failure, house generator starts at once and guarantees that aerator normally works or alleviates Fish anoxic conditions to pouring oxygenation agent into.So fish farm economic loss is less in the short time；Loss Fast growth phase, along with continuing of power off time, fishing ground emergency generator's unit is ineffective, and Fish start anoxia and death occur, and the aquatic products simultaneously fished for gradually addle, and economic loss increases sharply；The loss period of saturation, having a power failure more than ten several hours, large quantities of Fish are death by suffocation because of anoxia, and fish farm suffers huge economic loss, loss of outage value to reach maximum, and loss curve tends towards stability.

To sum up analyze, although agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery are different by electrical characteristics, different types of crop, poultry and aquatic products also have bigger difference to power failure reaction sensitivity, but economic loss is the most consistent with the relation curve of power off time, all present " S " type, so using Logistic function to set up primary industry Custom interruption cost assessment models such as following formula:

$L\left(t\right)=\frac{K}{1+\frac{K-C_0}{C_0}Exp(-bt)}$

In formula: L (t) is respectively agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery specific load loss of outage value；T is interruption duration；K is loss of outage saturation value；C₀For power failure initial abstraction value；B is loss growth potential index.

(3) design of primary industry typical user loss of outage application form.Using crop-planting garden, breeding, raising seedling base, large-scale fowl and livestock farm and aquatic products raising base etc. as respondent, each manage the difference design loss of outage application form of the aspect such as rule, power failure characteristic according to typical user.Content mainly includes Subscriber Unit title, industry belonging to user, the year power consumption (kWh) of user, year peak load (kW), the loss of outage initial data (first) of (30min, 1h, 2h, 4h, 8h, 12h, 16h, 24h etc.) under the year total output value (first) of user and typical time.

(4) acquisition of loss of outage data, process.For each typical user of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, take user investigation method to reclaim through after a period of time and obtain a large amount of damage survey result.First questionnaire is carried out classified statistic according to industry difference, by the loss of outage initial data of the four each typical users of class industry normalized on the basis of year peak load, obtain specific load loss of outage value (unit/kW)；Then utilize curve fit mathematics method to draw the loss of outage curve that each typical user is corresponding, a large amount of for substantial deviation scatterplot concentrated areas distortion data is removed and obtains accurate loss of outage value；Finally year total output value and year power consumption two factor proportion in affiliated industry in conjunction with each user are weighted averagely suing for peace, and respectively obtain the economic loss value that farming, forestry, husbandary and fishing four class industry is relevant with power off time.

(5) determination of loss of outage assessment models design parameter.Result according to step (4), MATLAB program software is used to simulate the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery loss of outage value relation curve with interruption duration, verify relation curve in " S " type according to a large amount of survey results, finally determine loss of outage assessment models design parameter K, b, C₀Numerical value.

(6) according to the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery loss of outage assessment models set up, specific load economic loss value under any time can be obtained, and combine Custom interruption cost loading, primary industry user's economic loss value that finally calculating has a power failure on a large scale causes.

The invention have the advantages that 1) present invention sets up the loss evaluation model of the serpentine formula that unit loss of outage changes with interruption duration according to mechanism such as primary industry electricity consumption, power failure characteristics.2) present invention not only achieves the structure of concrete loss of outage model but also overcomes the shortcoming taking merely user investigation method not have cogency, and both complement each other more accurately calculates primary industry user's economic loss that large-scale blackout causes.3) present invention designs the loss of outage questionnaire of correspondence according to the difference of the aspects such as primary industry typical user production and operation rule, power failure characteristic.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is primary industry Custom interruption cost estimation flow figure.

Fig. 2 is user investigation method flow chart of steps.

Fig. 3 is that unit load loss value is with interruption duration variation relation curve.

Detailed description of the invention

Have a power failure on a large scale primary industry user's concrete application flow of Economic loss evaluation method as it is shown in figure 1, combine flow chart and this patent is described further.

Step 1: the loss of outage questionnaire corresponding for designs such as primary industry user's production and operation rule, power failure characteristics is as follows:

Primary industry Custom interruption cost questionnaire

Unit of survey's title:

Your unit industry type:

The investigation date:

Your unit peak load:

Your in unit year power consumption:

Your unit year total output value:

User's concrete loss of outage application form

Other direct economic losses caused because of power failure:1 、 2 、 3 、

Step 2: choose the crop-planting garden in certain region, breeding, raising seedling base, large-scale animal farm, aquaculture field as respondent, takes user investigation method to obtain a large amount of loss of outage initial datas, and the step of user investigation method is as shown in Figure 2.

Step 3: the analyzing and processing of loss of outage data.By the loss of outage initial data of each for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery typical user normalized on the basis of respective year peak load, obtaining specific load loss of outage value (unit/kW), concrete formula is shown below:

$L_{ij}\left(t\right)=\frac{C_{ij}\left(t\right)}{P_{ij}}$

C in formula_ij(t)、L_ij(t)、P_ijIt is respectively the i-th class industry jth typical user's loss of outage data (first), specific load loss of outage value (unit/kW), year peak load (kW)；I takes 1～4, represents farming, forestry, husbandary and fishing four class industry.Year total output value and year power consumption two factor proportion in affiliated industry in conjunction with each user are weighted averagely suing for peace, and respectively obtain the specific load penalty values that farming, forestry, husbandary and fishing four class industry is relevant with power off time.Concrete formula is as follows:

$K_{ij}=\frac{E_{ij}}{\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}{E}_{ij}}$

$K_{ij}=\frac{G_{ij}}{\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}{G}_{ij}}$

$L_i\left(t\right)=\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\Σ}}{L}_{ij}\left(t\right)\left(\frac{K_{ij}+K_{ij}}{2}\right)$

In formula: G_ij、E_ijIt is respectively year peak load (kW) of jth user, year total output value (first), year power consumption (kWh)；K_ij、K_ijRepresent that jth user's year power consumption, year total output value are at the proportion of affiliated industry respectively；L_iT () represents the i-th class industry specific load loss of outage value (unit/kW)；M is the number of the i-th class industry jth typical user.

Step 4: obtain the specific load penalty values of farming, forestry, husbandary and fishing four class industry after loss of outage primary data analysis is processed, the economic loss value using MATLAB program software (detailed process is shown in program 1) to simulate correspondence is similar to as shown in Figure 3 with the relation curve of interruption duration, and obtain corresponding loss of outage model design parameter, and then determine the loss of outage assessment models that four class industries are concrete.

Step 5: according to the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery loss of outage assessment models set up, can obtain specific load economic loss value under any time, in conjunction with four class industry typical user loss of outage loading, finally calculates the economic loss value caused that has a power failure.

Program 1:

Claims (1)

1. lower primary industry user's loss appraisal method of having a power failure on a large scale, it is characterised in that comprise the steps of

(1) primary industry includes the big class of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery four: wherein desirable load includes being engaged in various proportion of crop planting The electric load consumed time movable, the cultivation of forest, the electric power planted, foster, fell, consume in transportation Load；The electric load consumed in the animal feeding activity being engaged in for obtaining various poultry；In ocean, internal water Territory cultivation and the electric load consumed when fishing for activity and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries production activity is carried out various The electric load consumed when holding sex service；

(2) comprehensive analysis agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery electricity consumption draws loss of outage assessment models with loss of outage characteristic

Although agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery are different by electrical characteristics, different types of crop, poultry and aquatic products are to the reaction spirit that has a power failure Sensitivity also has bigger difference, but economic loss is the most consistent with the relation curve of power off time, all presents " S " type, So using Logistic function to set up primary industry Custom interruption cost assessment models such as following formula:

$L\left(t\right)=\frac{K}{1+\frac{K-C_0}{C_0}\exp (-bt)}$

In formula: L (t) is respectively agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery specific load loss of outage value；T is interruption duration；K is for having a power failure Loss saturation value；C₀For power failure initial abstraction value；B is loss growth potential index；

(3) design of primary industry typical user loss of outage application form

Using crop-planting garden, breeding, raising seedling base, large-scale fowl and livestock farm and aquatic products raising base etc. as adjusting Check as, each manage according to typical user the aspect such as rule, power failure characteristic difference design loss of outage application form； Content mainly includes Subscriber Unit title, industry belonging to user, the year power consumption (kWh) of user, year peak load (kW), The year total output value of user；And under typical time: 30min, 1h, 2h, 4h, 8h, 12h, 16h, 24h, Loss of outage initial data；

(4) acquisition of loss of outage data, process

For each typical user of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, take user investigation method to reclaim through after a period of time and damaged in a large number Lose survey result.First questionnaire is carried out classified statistic according to industry difference, by the four each typical users of class industry Loss of outage initial data normalized on the basis of year peak load, obtain specific load loss of outage value unit/kW； Then curve fit mathematics method is utilized to draw the loss of outage curve that each typical user is corresponding, by substantial deviation scatterplot A large amount of concentrated areas distortion data is removed and is obtained accurate loss of outage value；Finally the year in conjunction with each user is raw Produce total value and year power consumption two factor proportion in affiliated industry is weighted averagely suing for peace, respectively obtain Agriculture, forestry And Animal Husbandry The economic loss value that fishing four class industry is relevant with power off time；

(5) determination of loss of outage assessment models design parameter

According to the result of step (4), use MATLAB program software simulate agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery loss of outage value with The relation curve of interruption duration, verifies relation curve in " S " type according to a large amount of survey results, finally determines Go out loss of outage assessment models design parameter K, b, C₀Numerical value；

(6) according to the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery loss of outage assessment models set up, specific load warp under any time can be obtained Ji penalty values, and combine Custom interruption cost loading, primary industry user's warp that finally calculating has a power failure on a large scale causes Ji penalty values.