CN105760703B - A kind of Flood Forecasting Method that the simulation that discharges water is stored based on polymerization reservoir - Google Patents
A kind of Flood Forecasting Method that the simulation that discharges water is stored based on polymerization reservoir Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of Flood Forecasting Method that the simulation that discharges water is stored based on polymerization reservoir, and this method comprises the following steps：1) the natural phase TOPMODEL model parameters of calibration；2) hydraulic engineering in basin is aggregated into a reservoir, calculates it and polymerize storage capacity, it is determined that initial store full rate；3) storage for formulating polymerization reservoir discharges water simulation drawing；4) on the basis of native state drag parameter, flood is made according to actual measurement play flood rate pre-polymerization pondage parameter B, P occursmax, Pmin, τ and polymerization reservoir store and put simulation graph parameter A, m, n, and carry out flood forecasting.The Flood Forecasting Method has taken into full account hydraulic engineering storage capacity information, influence of the hydraulic engineering to flood forecasting is incorporated into TOPMODEL models by the way of polymerization reservoir stores the simulation drawing that discharges water, real time correction influence of the hydraulic engineering to flood forecasting, so as to reduce the uncertainty of flood forecasting result, the precision of flood forecasting scheme is improved.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to flood forecasting technical field, is related to a kind of flood forecasting that the simulation that discharges water is stored based on polymerization reservoir
Method.
Background technology
The problem of having turned into getting worse in the world due to the sharp increase of population and social productive forces, the problem of water it
One.In order to alleviate flood control and emerging sharp contradiction, many various types of Hydraulic and Hydro-Power Engineerings have been built in basin.These engineerings make
The formation condition of confluxing in miscarriage city is changed, so that hydrologic forecast or the hydrology calculate and all has to take into account that them
Influence.The flood forecasting for being presently considered Influence of Water Conservancy Projects mainly has two methods：First kind method is analysis Flood Tendency
Property change, mainly the hydrological data before and after by Influence of Water Conservancy Projects is analyzed, typically uses tendency method and correlation
Analytic approach.But this method is only applicable to the hydraulic engineering construction time than more uniform basin, and lacks mechanism manufacturing basis, can only
The hydrologic effect of hydraulic engineering is briefly described.Second class method is to add to consider Influence of Water Conservancy Projects in hydrological model
The factor, such as Cheng Chuntian (Cheng Chuntian, Wang Bende consider the effect of human activity Watershed Hydrologic Models parameter determination [J]
Journal of Dalian University of Technology Total, 1995,3:Influence of Water Conservancy Projects 400-404.) is included to the determination process of Watershed Hydrologic Models parameter
In；Guo Shenglian etc. (Guo Shenglian, Wang Jinxing, Peng Hui, waits to consider Fengman Reservoir flood forecasting scheme [J] of the effect of human activity
HYDROELECTRIC ENERGY science, 2000,2:14-17.) on the basis of the water source Runoff Model of the Xinanjiang River three and corresponding Confluence Model, propose
Consider that hydraulic engineering is confluxed the flood forecasting scheme of mechanism influence on production.
But the studies above method mainly determines maximum effect amount of the hydraulic engineering to magnanimity on the whole, it is difficult to reflect water
The influence process of sharp engineering, and the influence amount of Civil Engineering engineering storage capacity information real time correction hydraulic engineering can not be utilized, so as to
Make result of calculation that there is larger uncertainty.
The content of the invention
In view of the shortcomings of the prior art, the present invention provides a kind of flood forecasting side that the simulation that discharges water is stored based on polymerization reservoir
Method.
The technical scheme is that：
A kind of Flood Forecasting Method that the simulation that discharges water is stored based on polymerization reservoir, specifically includes following steps：
The first step, utilize natural phase play Flood Information calibration TOPMODEL model parameters；The described natural phase is not build
Hydraulic engineering or hydraulic engineering seldom period；
Second step, based on the thought of polymerization reservoir, numerous hydraulic engineerings in basin are aggregated into a reservoir, calculate polymerization
The storage capacity V of reservoir, it is determined that the full rate δ of the initial storage of polymerization reservoir0；
2.1 calculate polymerization reservoir capacity V
First, the hydraulic engineering such as large, medium and small reservoir and dyke in statistical analysis basin, using following rules calculate it is big,
Storage capacity when Small Reservoir and dyke polymerize：
(1) large reservoir：The storage capacity when utilizable capacity of large reservoir is as polymerization.
(2) medium and small reservoirs：The analysis existing operational data of reservoir show that storage capacity in actual motion accounts for the ratio of aggregate storage capacity, and
Storage capacity when polymerizeing is used as with the product of medium and small reservoirs aggregate storage capacity using the ratio.
(3) dyke：The storage capacity when aggregate storage capacity of dyke is as polymerization.
Described large reservoir has clear and definite scheduling rule, can have the obvious effect of retaining to flood in low water level, in master
Flood season level is likely to be greater than flood season limit level, but water level maintains essentially in the hydraulic engineering of flood season limit level at the end of flood；It is described
Medium and small reservoirs there is no clear and definite scheduling rule, storage capacity in actual motion can be drawn according to the analysis of reservoir existing operational data；
Scheduling rule is not present in described dyke, substantially belong in peb process have much storage capacity just store how much, manual control energy
Power is poor.
Secondly, large, medium and small reservoir and dyke in basin are aggregated into a reservoir, with each auto polymerization obtained by above-mentioned calculating
When polymerization storage capacity V of the storage capacity sum as the polymerization reservoir.
2.2 determine the full rate δ of initial storage of polymerization reservoir0
Soil saturation degree χ0The discrepancy situation of recent soil moisture can be weighed, determines the upper strata storage capacity of polymerization reservoir
Change, full rate is stored to polymerization reservoir a non-linear effects, and prophase programming factor ρ0Determine the product of hydraulic engineering water early stage
Tired, storing full rate to polymerization reservoir has direct linear effect, the storage of hydraulic engineering full situation when the two joint effect flood occurs,
Using soil saturation degree χ0Prophase programming factor ρ when occurring with flood0To calculate the full rate δ of the initial storage of reservoir0：
δ0=B χ0 τ+(1-B)ρ0 (1)
In formula,P77 days total rainfalls before occurring for flood, χ0For certain in peb process
One moment soil saturation degree, parameter B, Pmax、Pmin, τ all by optimization obtain, 0<δ0<1
3rd step, discharged water simulation drawing according to the storage of the law formulation polymerization reservoir of regulating and storing substantially of hydraulic engineering, determine water conservancy
Effects on Engineering amount；Described rule of regulating and storing substantially retains for hydraulic engineering, releases rule；
The effect of retaining and flood scale when influence of the hydraulic engineering to flood is mainly shown as that flood scale is smaller is larger
When release effect, and consider that most of medium and small hydraulic engineering is all no gate, it is hereby assumed that being fixed when storing full rate less than certain
Influence of the hydraulic engineering to flood shows as the effect of retaining when value A, water conservancy work when storing full rate and being more than certain fixed value A
Influence of the journey to flood shows as releasing effect.Accordingly, the storage of foundation polymerization reservoir discharges water, and (see Fig. 1, transverse axis t is field to simulation drawing
Each moment of flood events, transverse axis k are that period net rainfall stores rate of putting, and longitudinal axis δ is that reservoir stores full rate), wherein, curve I is one
The reservoir of field flood stores the change procedure of full rate, and curve II is that period net rainfall releases the change procedure that rate stores completely rate with reservoir, right
The curve form answered is k1=[(A- δ)/A]m, curve III is that period net rainfall retains the change procedure that rate stores full rate with reservoir, right
The curve form answered is k2=[(δ-A)/(1-A)]n.Wherein, parameter A, m, n needs to obtain by optimization.
As shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3, Q is the flood mistake of master mould simulation to flood simulation process before and after consideration Influence of Water Conservancy Projects
Journey；Q ' is to consider the peb process simulated after Influence of Water Conservancy Projects, RtFor period runoff yield；△RtFor period Influence of Water Conservancy Projects
Amount, then：
(1) δ is worked ast<During A, hydraulic engineering is retained, the period amount of retaining △ R1,t=k1,tRt；
(2) δ is worked ast>During A, hydraulic engineering releases, the period amount of releasing △ R2,t=k2,tRt。
Wherein, parameter A, m, n is obtained by optimization；k1,tAnd k2,tSimulation drawing is put by polymerization reservoir storage to obtain, k1,tTo discharge water
Rate, k2,tFor the rate of retaining；RtFor period runoff yield；△R1,t、△R2,tFor period Influence of Water Conservancy Projects amount；
4th step, using the TOPMODEL model parameters of first step calibration as simulation without Influence of Water Conservancy Projects or hydraulic engineering
The underlying parameter of flow anomaly situation in the case of influence is smaller；According to actual measurement play Flood Information, hydraulic engineering is taken into consideration
The Calculation of Flood process of influence, rate make flood and pre-polymerization pondage parameter B, P occurmax、Pmin, τ and polymerization reservoir
Storage, which discharges water, simulates graph parameter A, m, n, carries out flood forecasting.
The Calculation of Flood of described consideration Influence of Water Conservancy Projects is：
4.1) natural forecast result R is obtained by the TOPMODEL model parameters of first step calibrationt；
4.2) the full rate δ of initial storage obtained according to second step0With the storage capacity V of polymerization reservoir, the initial of polymerization reservoir is calculated
Storage capacity v0=δ0V；
4.3) the day part Influence of Water Conservancy Projects amount of retaining △ R are calculated1,tOr the amount of releasing △ R2,t；
Initialization period t=1, according to δ0Simulation drawing, which is put, with the polymerization reservoir storage of the 3rd step obtains period Influence of Water Conservancy Projects
The amount of retaining △ R1,1Or the amount of releasing △ R2,1, and calculate the period end storage capacity v of polymerization reservoir1And the period of reservoir stores full rate δ1
=v1/ V, wherein v1=v0+△R1,1Or v1=v0-△R2,1。
Period t=t+1 is made, according to δt-1Store to put simulation drawing and obtain period runoff with the polymerization reservoir of the 3rd step and discharge water rate k1,t
Or retain rate k2,t, so as to obtain the period Influence of Water Conservancy Projects amount of retaining △ R1,tOr the amount of releasing △ R2,t, and calculate polymerization reservoir
Period end storage capacity vtAnd the period of reservoir stores full rate δt=vt/ V, wherein vt=vt-1+△R1,tOr vt=vt-1-△R2,t。
4.4) the Influence of Water Conservancy Projects amount of the retaining △ R according to obtained by step 4.3)1,tOr the amount of releasing △ R2,tCorrect Rt, obtain
Period runoff yield R ' under Influence of Water Conservancy Projectst；
4.5) the period runoff yield R ' obtained according to step 4.4)t, obtain the play flood simulation under Influence of Water Conservancy Projects
As a result Q 't。
Beneficial effects of the present invention are：The Flood Forecasting Method has taken into full account hydraulic engineering storage capacity information, using polymerization
Reservoir stores the mode of the simulation drawing that discharges water and influence of the hydraulic engineering to flood forecasting incorporated into TOPMODEL models, real time correction water
Influence of the sharp engineering to flood forecasting, so as to reduce the uncertainty of flood forecasting result, improve flood forecasting scheme essence
Degree.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is that polymerization reservoir storage puts simulation drawing；
Fig. 2 is that hydraulic engineering releases flood simulation process before and after function influence；
Fig. 3 is that flood simulation process before and after function influence is retained in hydraulic engineering；
In figure：Curve I is the change procedure that the reservoir of a flood stores full rate；Curve II is that period net rainfall releases rate with water
Storehouse stores the change procedure of full rate；Curve III is that period net rainfall retains the change procedure that rate stores full rate with reservoir.
Embodiment
The present invention considers influence of the hydraulic engineering to flood forecasting, and hydraulic engineering is polymerized into a reservoir, it is proposed that
A kind of Flood Forecasting Method that the simulation that discharges water is stored based on polymerization reservoir.
Below by embodiment, and with reference to accompanying drawing, the present invention will be further described.
Fengman Reservoir is located on the Second Songhua River of the Jilin Province southeast, water catching area 42500km2, flood forecasting
When whole Fengman Reservoir basin be divided into three areas：More than Fengman Reservoir water reserve (I areas), five ditches (II areas) and white scenery with hills and waters storehouse
Above (III areas), wherein the control area of II areas reservoir and dyke accounts for the ratio maximum of corresponding drainage area, is 63.98%, right
It is big to produce the influence confluxed, carries out flood forecasting by example of the area, comprises the following steps that：
The first step, utilize natural phase play Flood Information calibration TOPMODEL model parameters；
Understand that basin hydraulic engineering in the past in 1956 is less by counting the distribution of basin reservoir age, it is believed that 1956
The production that preceding flood meets under native state is confluxed mechanism, for calibration native state drag parameter.Due to before 1956
Have that the play flood of complete field data is less, so 4 floods only chosen between 1953~nineteen fifty-five carry out parameter calibration, 2
Field flood is tested.Calculated using particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO)
Method carries out Model Parameter Optimization, and parameter calibration phase and checking phase analog result are as shown in table 1,2.
Model calibration result under the native state of table 1
Model the result under the native state of table 2
6 floods are all qualified in table 1,2, thus using this set parameter as simulation without Influence of Water Conservancy Projects or hydraulic engineering compared with
The underlying parameter of flow anomaly situation in the case of few.Choose basin 1956~2010 years by the Influence of Water Conservancy Projects phase 26 go through
History storm flood, simulated with native state drag parameter, according to《Hydrological Information and Forecasting specification SL250-2000》To mould
Plan result precision, which carries out evaluation, to be drawn, magnanimity simulation is underproof in 26 floods 7, and simulation precision is only 73%.
This is primarily due to hydraulic engineering has large effect to flood forecasting, show as flood just, flood end water conservation, surpass analog quantity
Cross actual measured amount and major flood season and actively release alleviation pressure of flood, particularly small reservoir dyke even the non-artificial aerial drainage feelings that break down occurs
Condition, runoff simulation is set to be less than measuring runoff.
Second step, based on the thought of polymerization reservoir, numerous hydraulic engineerings in basin are aggregated into a reservoir calculate it and gather
Close the storage capacity V and full rate δ of initial storage0；
2.1 calculate polymerization reservoir capacity V
The flood in same year generation uses same polymeric reservoir capacity, according to hydraulic engineering polymerize reservoir capacity computation model and
Each age all types of hydraulic engineering storage capacity statistical results obtain each age polymerization reservoir capacity, and each age polymerization reservoir capacity calculates
It the results are shown in Table 3.
Each age hydraulic engineering maximum effect amount statistical form in the ditch above basin of table 3 five
2.2 determine that polymerization reservoir initially stores full rate δ0, specific steps refer to the content of the invention.
3rd step, according to the rule of regulating and storing substantially of hydraulic engineering, (rule of regulating and storing substantially refers to that hydraulic engineering is retained, released
Rule) storage of formulating polymerization reservoir discharges water simulation drawing, Influence of Water Conservancy Projects amount is determined, specific steps refer to the content of the invention；
4th step, using the TOPMODEL model parameters of first step calibration as simulation without Influence of Water Conservancy Projects or hydraulic engineering
The underlying parameter of flow anomaly situation in the case of influence is smaller；According to actual measurement play Flood Information, hydraulic engineering is taken into consideration
The Calculation of Flood process of influence, rate make flood and pre-polymerization pondage parameter B, P occurmax、Pmin, τ and polymerization reservoir
Storage, which discharges water, simulates graph parameter A, m, n, carries out flood forecasting.The Calculation of Flood flow of the consideration Influence of Water Conservancy Projects is referred in invention
Hold 4.1) -4.5).
On the basis of native state drag parameter, flood is made according to observed flood rate pre-polymerization reservoir filling occurs
Measure parameter B=0.7, Pmax=90, Pmin=20, τ=0.5；Polymerization reservoir, which stores, puts simulation graph parameter A=0.7, m=1.1, n=
0.5.1956~2010 years 26 history storm floods by the Influence of Water Conservancy Projects phase of parameter simulation set using above-mentioned rate, mould
Intend precision to be improved largely, production flows unqualified play and is reduced to 0 by 7, and qualification rate rises to 100% by 73%.This says
The bright present invention considers influence of the hydraulic engineering to flood forecasting, effectively reduces the uncertainty of flood forecasting result, improves
Precision of Flood Forecast.
Claims (2)
1. a kind of Flood Forecasting Method that the simulation that discharges water is stored based on polymerization reservoir, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
The first step, utilize natural phase play Flood Information calibration TOPMODEL model parameters；The described natural phase is not build water conservancy
Engineering or hydraulic engineering seldom period；
Second step, numerous hydraulic engineerings in basin are aggregated into a polymerization reservoir, calculate the storage capacity V of polymerization reservoir, it is determined that poly-
The full rate δ of the initial storage in Heshui storehouse0：
δ0=B χ0 τ+(1-B)ρ0 (1)
Wherein,P77 days total rainfalls before occurring for flood, χ0For certain in peb process for the moment
Carve soil saturation degree, parameter B, Pmax、Pmin, τ all by optimization obtain, 0<δ0<1；
3rd step, discharged water simulation drawing according to the retaining of hydraulic engineering, the storage for releasing law formulation polymerization reservoir, determine hydraulic engineering
Influence amount；The storage of described polymerization reservoir discharge water simulation drawing can represent the reservoir of flood store full rate change procedure, when
Section net rainfall releases rate and retains change procedure of the rate with the full rate of reservoir storage with the change procedure and period net rainfall of the full rate of reservoir storage；
It is k that described period net rainfall, which releases rate to store completely curve corresponding to the change procedure of rate with reservoir,1=[(A- δ)/A]m；It is described
Period net rainfall retain rate with reservoir store the change procedure of full rate corresponding to curve be k2=[(δ-A)/(1-A)]n；Hydraulic engineering
Influence amount is：
(1) δ is worked ast<During A, the period amount of retaining △ R1,t=k1,t Rt；
(2) δ is worked ast>During A, the period amount of releasing △ R2,t=k2,t Rt；
Wherein, parameter A, m, n is obtained by optimization；k1,tAnd k2,tSimulation drawing is put by polymerization reservoir storage to obtain, k1,tFor the rate of discharging water,
k2,tFor the rate of retaining；RtFor period runoff yield；△R1,t、△R2,tFor period Influence of Water Conservancy Projects amount；
4th step, using the TOPMODEL model parameters of first step calibration as simulation without Influence of Water Conservancy Projects or Influence of Water Conservancy Projects
The underlying parameter of flow anomaly situation in the case of smaller；According to actual measurement play Flood Information, Influence of Water Conservancy Projects is taken into consideration
Calculation of Flood process, rate make flood occur pre-polymerization pondage parameter B, Pmax、Pmin, τ and polymerize reservoir storage put
Fluid Dynamics graph parameter A, m, n, carry out flood forecasting；
The Calculation of Flood of described consideration Influence of Water Conservancy Projects is：
4.1) natural forecast result R is obtained by the TOPMODEL model parameters of first step calibrationt；
4.2) the full rate δ of initial storage of the polymerization reservoir obtained according to second step0With storage capacity V, the initial storage v for polymerizeing reservoir is calculated0
=δ0V；
4.3) the day part Influence of Water Conservancy Projects amount of retaining △ R are calculated1,tOr the amount of releasing △ R2,t；
Initialization period t=1, according to δ0Store to put simulation drawing and obtain period Influence of Water Conservancy Projects with the polymerization reservoir of the 3rd step and retain
Measure △ R1,1Or the amount of releasing △ R2,1, and calculate the period end storage capacity v of polymerization reservoir1And the period of reservoir stores full rate δ1=v1/
V, wherein v1=v0+△R1,1Or v1=v0-△R2,1；
Period t=t+1 is made, according to δt-1Store to put simulation drawing and obtain period runoff with the polymerization reservoir of the 3rd step and discharge water rate k1,tOr block
Storage rate k2,t, so as to obtain the period Influence of Water Conservancy Projects amount of retaining △ R1,tOr the amount of releasing △ R2,t, and calculate the period of polymerization reservoir
Last storage capacity vtAnd the period of reservoir stores full rate δt=vt/ V, wherein vt=vt-1+△R1,tOr vt=vt-1-△R2,t；
4.4) the Influence of Water Conservancy Projects amount of the retaining △ R according to obtained by step 4.3)1,tOr the amount of releasing △ R2,tCorrect Rt, obtain water conservancy
Period runoff yield R ' under Effects on Engineeringt；
4.5) the period runoff yield R ' obtained according to step 4.4)t, obtain the play flood simulation result under Influence of Water Conservancy Projects
Q’t。
A kind of 2. Flood Forecasting Method that the simulation that discharges water is stored based on polymerization reservoir according to claim 1, it is characterised in that
Described second step calculates polymerization reservoir capacity V steps：Calculate in basin big, medium and small reservoirs and dyke hydraulic engineering each
Storage capacity during polymerization；Big, Small Reservoir and dyke in basin are aggregated into a polymerization reservoir, with big, medium and small reservoirs and the pool
Polymerization storage capacity of the storage capacity sum as polymerization reservoir during each auto polymerization in dam；Greatly, medium and small reservoirs and dyke hydraulic engineering are each
Storage capacity during auto polymerization, it is respectively：
(1) large reservoir：The storage capacity when utilizable capacity of large reservoir is polymerize；
(2) medium and small reservoirs：The analysis existing operational data of reservoir show that storage capacity in actual motion accounts for the ratio of aggregate storage capacity, and with this
Ratio is with the product of medium and small reservoirs aggregate storage capacity as storage capacity when polymerizeing；
(3) dyke：The storage capacity when aggregate storage capacity of dyke is as polymerization.
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| CN106803131B (en) * | 2016-12-23 | 2018-03-20 | 华中科技大学 | A kind of river flood forecasting procedure based on discrete generalized Nash Confluence Models |
| CN106682355B (en) * | 2017-01-12 | 2018-12-21 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | A kind of Hydro-Model Parameter Calibration Technology rating method based on PSO-GA hybrid algorithm |
| CN107944627A (en) * | 2017-11-27 | 2018-04-20 | 珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院 | A kind of river basin flood forecasting procedure |
| CN109948220B (en) * | 2019-03-12 | 2020-06-26 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 | Gate dam multi-target leakage flow estimation method and system |
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