CN105760703A - Flood forecasting method based on simulation of water storage and release of aggregated reservoir - Google Patents
Flood forecasting method based on simulation of water storage and release of aggregated reservoir Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a flood forecasting method based on simulation of water storage and release of an aggregated reservoir. The flood forecasting method comprises the following steps: (1) calibrating parameters of a TOPMODEL model in a natural period; (2) aggregating water conservancy projects in a drainage basin into a reservoir, calculating the capacity of the aggregated reservoir, and determining an initial full storage rate; (3) preparing a water storage and release simulation graph of the aggregated reservoir; (4) on the basis of the model parameters under a natural state, determining water storage parameters B, Pmax, Pmin, t and parameters A, m and n of the storage and release simulation graph of the aggregated reservoir before a flood occurs according to an actually measured separate flood frequency, and performing flood forecasting. According to the flood forecasting method, the reservoir capacity information of the water conservancy projects is fully considered; the influence of the water conservancy projects on flood forecasting is fused into the TOPMODEL model by adopting the water storage and release simulation graph of the aggregated reservoir, so that the influence of the water conservancy projects on flood forecasting is corrected in real time; therefore, uncertainty of a flood forecasting result is reduced, and the precision of a flood forecasting plan is improved.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to flood forecasting technical field, relate to a kind of Flood Forecasting Method storing the simulation that discharges water based on polymerization reservoir.
Background technology
Due to the sharp increase of population and social productive forces, the problem of water has become one of problem day by day serious in the world.In order to alleviate the contradiction of flood control and emerging profit, many various types of Hydraulic and Hydro-Power Engineerings in basin, are built.These engineerings make the formation condition of confluxing in miscarriage city there occurs change, to such an extent as to hydrologic forecast or hydrology calculating all have to take into account that their impact.The flood forecasting being presently considered Influence of Water Conservancy Projects mainly has two kinds of methods: first kind method is to analyze Flood Tendency change, is mainly analyzed by the hydrological data before and after Influence of Water Conservancy Projects, is generally adopted tendency method and correlational analysis method.But the method is only applicable to the hydraulic engineering construction time than more uniform basin, and lack mechanism manufacturing basis, the hydrologic effect of hydraulic engineering can only be briefly described.Equations of The Second Kind method is to add the factor considering Influence of Water Conservancy Projects in hydrological model, such as (Cheng Chuntian such as Cheng Chuntian, Wang Bende. consider the determination [J] of the Watershed Hydrologic Models parameter of the effect of human activity. Journal of Dalian University of Technology Total, 1995,3:400-404.) Influence of Water Conservancy Projects is included in the determination process of Watershed Hydrologic Models parameter；(the Guo Shenglian such as Guo Shenglian, Wang Jinxing, Peng Hui, Deng. consider Fengman Reservoir flood forecasting scheme [J] of the effect of human activity. HYDROELECTRIC ENERGY science, 2000,2:14-17.) on the basis of the Xinanjiang River three water source Runoff Model and corresponding Confluence Model, it is proposed that consider the hydraulic engineering flood forecasting scheme on producing mechanism impact of confluxing.
But the studies above method mainly determines hydraulic engineering maximum effect amount to magnanimity on the whole, it is difficult to the influence process of reflection hydraulic engineering, and the influence amount of Civil Engineering engineering storage capacity information real time correction hydraulic engineering can not be utilized, so that result of calculation has bigger uncertainty.
Summary of the invention
For the deficiencies in the prior art, the present invention provides a kind of Flood Forecasting Method storing the simulation that discharges water based on polymerization reservoir.
The technical scheme is that
A kind of Flood Forecasting Method storing the simulation that discharges water based on polymerization reservoir, specifically includes following steps:
The first step, utilizes natural phase play Flood Information calibration TOPMODEL model parameter；The described natural phase is do not build hydraulic engineering or hydraulic engineering little period；
Hydraulic engineerings numerous in basin based on the thought of polymerization reservoir, are aggregated into a reservoir, calculate the storage capacity V of polymerization reservoir by second step, it is determined that the initial of polymerization reservoir stores full rate δ0；
2.1 calculate polymerization reservoir capacity V
First, the hydraulic engineering such as large, medium and small reservoir in statistical analysis basin and dyke, storage capacity when adopting following rule to calculate big, Small Reservoir and dyke polymerization:
(1) large reservoir: the storage capacity when utilizable capacity of large reservoir is as polymerization.
(2) medium and small reservoirs: analyze the existing operational data of reservoir and show in actual motion that storage capacity accounts for the ratio of aggregate storage capacity, and using the product of this ratio and medium and small reservoirs aggregate storage capacity as storage capacity when being polymerized.
(3) dyke: the storage capacity when aggregate storage capacity of dyke is as polymerization.
Described large reservoir has clear and definite scheduling rule, flood can have when low water level effect of substantially retaining, be likely to be greater than flood season limit level at major flood season water level, but when flood terminates, water level maintains essentially in the hydraulic engineering of flood season limit level；Described medium and small reservoirs does not have clear and definite scheduling rule, can draw storage capacity in actual motion according to the existing operational data analysis of reservoir；Described dyke is absent from scheduling rule, and substantially belonging in peb process has how much much storage capacity just stores, and Artificial Control ability is poor.
Secondly, reservoir large, medium and small in basin and dyke being aggregated into a reservoir, storage capacity sum during using each auto polymerization of above-mentioned calculating gained is as the polymerization storage capacity V of this polymerization reservoir.
2.2 determine that the initial of polymerization reservoir stores full rate δ0
Soil saturation degree χ0Can weighing the discrepancy situation of recent soil moisture, determine the upper strata storage capacity change of polymerization reservoir, polymerization reservoir stores full rate a non-linear effects, and prophase programming factor ρ0Determining the accumulation of the hydraulic engineering early stage water yield, polymerization reservoir is stored full rate direct linear effect, and when the two joint effect flood occurs, the full situation of the storage of hydraulic engineering, adopts soil saturation degree χ0Prophase programming factor ρ when occurring with flood0Calculate the initial of reservoir and store full rate δ0:
δ0=B χ0 τ+(1-B)ρ0(1)
In formula,P7First 7 days total rainfalls, χ is there is for flood0For moment soil saturation degree a certain in peb process, parameter B, Pmax、Pmin, τ all obtained by optimization, 0 < δ0<1
3rd step, discharges water simulation drawing according to the storage of the law formulation polymerization reservoir of substantially regulating and storing of hydraulic engineering, it is determined that Influence of Water Conservancy Projects amount；Described rule of substantially regulating and storing be hydraulic engineering retain, rule of releasing；
Hydraulic engineering on flood affect main manifestations be flood scale less time retain effect and flood scale bigger time the effect of releasing, and consider that most of medium and small hydraulic engineering is all without gate, it is hereby assumed that the impact of flood is shown as the effect of retaining by hydraulic engineering in time storing full rate less than certain fixed value A, in time storing full rate more than certain fixed value A, the impact of flood is shown as the effect of releasing by hydraulic engineering.Accordingly, the storage setting up polymerization reservoir discharges water simulation drawing (see Fig. 1, transverse axis t is each moment of play peb process, transverse axis k is that period net rainfall storage puts rate, longitudinal axis δ is that reservoir stores full rate), wherein, curve I is the change procedure of the full rate of reservoir storage of a flood, curve II is that period net rainfall rate of releasing stores the change procedure of full rate with reservoir, and corresponding curve form is k1=[(A-δ)/A]m, curve III is that period net rainfall retains the rate change procedure with the full rate of reservoir storage, and corresponding curve form is k2=[(δ-A)/(1-A)]n.Wherein, parameter A, m, n require over optimization and obtain.
Considering the flood simulation process before and after Influence of Water Conservancy Projects as shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3, Q is the peb process of master mould simulation；The Q ' the peb process for simulating after considering Influence of Water Conservancy Projects, RtFor period runoff yield；△RtFor period Influence of Water Conservancy Projects amount, then:
(1) δ is worked ast< during A, hydraulic engineering is retained, the period amount of retaining △ R1,t=k1,tRt；
(2) δ is worked ast> A time, hydraulic engineering is released, the period amount of releasing △ R2,t=k2,tRt。
Wherein, parameter A, m, n are obtained by optimization；k1,tAnd k2,tPut simulation drawing by polymerization reservoir storage to obtain, k1,tFor the rate of discharging water, k2,tFor the rate of retaining；RtFor period runoff yield；△R1,t、△R2,tFor period Influence of Water Conservancy Projects amount；
4th step, using the TOPMODEL model parameter of first step calibration as simulating the underlying parameter without the flow anomaly situation in the less situation of Influence of Water Conservancy Projects or Influence of Water Conservancy Projects；According to actual measurement play Flood Information, taking the Calculation of Flood process of Influence of Water Conservancy Projects into consideration, rate makes flood generation pre-polymerization pondage parameter B, Pmax、Pmin, τ and polymerization reservoir storage discharge water simulation drawing parameter A, m, n, carry out flood forecasting.
The described Calculation of Flood considering Influence of Water Conservancy Projects is:
4.1) natural forecast result R is obtained by the TOPMODEL model parameter of first step calibrationt；
4.2) the full rate δ of initial storage obtained according to second step0With the storage capacity V of polymerization reservoir, the initial storage v of calculating polymerization reservoir0=δ0V；
4.3) the day part Influence of Water Conservancy Projects amount of retaining △ R is calculated1,tOr the amount of releasing △ R2,t；
Initialization period t=1, according to δ0Put simulation drawing with the polymerization reservoir of the 3rd step storage and obtain the period Influence of Water Conservancy Projects amount of retaining △ R1,1Or the amount of releasing △ R2,1, and calculate this period end storage capacity v of polymerization reservoir1And this period of reservoir stores full rate δ1=v1/ V, wherein v1=v0+△R1,1Or v1=v0-△R2,1。
Make period t=t+1, according to δt-1Store with the polymerization reservoir of the 3rd step and put simulation drawing and obtain period runoff and discharge water rate k1,tOr retain rate k2,t, thus obtaining the period Influence of Water Conservancy Projects amount of retaining △ R1,tOr the amount of releasing △ R2,t, and calculate the period end storage capacity v of polymerization reservoirtAnd the period of reservoir stores full rate δt=vt/ V, wherein vt=vt-1+△R1,tOr vt=vt-1-△R2,t。
4.4) according to step 4.3) the Influence of Water Conservancy Projects amount of the retaining △ R of gained1,tOr the amount of releasing △ R2,tCorrection Rt, obtain the period runoff yield R ' under Influence of Water Conservancy Projectst；
4.5) according to step 4.4) the period runoff yield R ' that obtainst, obtain the play flood simulation result Q ' under Influence of Water Conservancy Projectst。
The invention have the benefit that this Flood Forecasting Method has taken into full account hydraulic engineering storage capacity information, adopt the mode that polymerization reservoir stores the simulation drawing that discharges water that on the impact of flood forecasting, hydraulic engineering is incorporated TOPMODEL model, the real time correction hydraulic engineering impact on flood forecasting, thus decreasing the uncertainty of flood forecasting result, improve flood forecasting scheme precision.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is that polymerization reservoir storage puts simulation drawing；
Fig. 2 is that hydraulic engineering is released flood simulation process before and after function influence；
Fig. 3 is that flood simulation process before and after function influence is retained in hydraulic engineering；
In figure: curve I is the change procedure of the full rate of reservoir storage of a flood；Curve II is that period net rainfall rate of releasing stores the change procedure of full rate with reservoir；Curve III is that period net rainfall retains the rate change procedure with the full rate of reservoir storage.
Detailed description of the invention
The present invention considers the hydraulic engineering impact on flood forecasting, and hydraulic engineering is polymerized to a reservoir, it is proposed that a kind of Flood Forecasting Method storing the simulation that discharges water based on polymerization reservoir.
By the examples below, and in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the present invention will be further described.
Fengman Reservoir is positioned on the Second Songhua River of the southeast, Jilin Province, water catching area 42500km2During flood forecasting, whole Fengman Reservoir basin is divided into three districts: more than Fengman Reservoir water reserve (I district), five road ditches (II district) and more than white scenery with hills and waters storehouse (III district), wherein II district reservoir is maximum to the ratio that the control area of dyke accounts for corresponding drainage area, it is 63.98%, on producing, the impact confluxed is big, carry out flood forecasting with this district for example, specifically comprise the following steps that
The first step, utilizes natural phase play Flood Information calibration TOPMODEL model parameter；
Less by hydraulic engineering before adding up the basin reservoir age and being distributed known basin 1956, it is believed that front flood in 1956 meets the product under native state and confluxes mechanism, for calibration native state drag parameter.Owing to the play flood having complete field data for 1956 in the past is less, so only choose between 1953～nineteen fifty-five 4 floods carry out parameter calibration, 2 floods are tested.Particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) is adopted to calculate
Method carries out Model Parameter Optimization, parameter calibration phase and checking phase analog result such as shown in table 1,2.
Model calibration result under table 1 native state
Modelling verification result under table 2 native state
In table 1,2,6 floods are all qualified, therefore this overlap parameter as simulating the underlying parameter without the flow anomaly situation in the less situation of Influence of Water Conservancy Projects or hydraulic engineering.Choose 1956～2010 years 26 the history storm floods by the Influence of Water Conservancy Projects phase in basin, it is simulated by native state drag parameter, according to " Hydrological Information and Forecasting specification SL250-2000 ", analog result precision is carried out evaluation can draw, in 26 floods, magnanimity simulation is underproof 7, and simulation precision is only 73%.This is primarily due to hydraulic engineering has large effect to flood forecasting, show as flood just, flood end water conservation, make analog quantity exceed actual measured amount and major flood season is actively released alleviation pressure of flood, particularly even there is the non-artificial earial drainage situation that breaks down in little reservoir dyke, and makes runoff simulation less than measuring runoff.
Hydraulic engineerings numerous in basin, based on the thought of polymerization reservoir, are aggregated into a reservoir and calculate its polymerization storage capacity V and the full rate δ of initial storage by second step0；
2.1 calculate polymerization reservoir capacity V
The flood in same year generation adopts same polymeric reservoir capacity, is polymerized reservoir capacity computation model according to hydraulic engineering and all types of hydraulic engineering storage capacity statistical result of each age obtains polymerization of each age reservoir capacity, and polymerization of each age reservoir capacity result of calculation is in Table 3.
The table 3 five road each age hydraulic engineering in the above basin of ditch maximum effect amount statistical table
2.2 determine that polymerization reservoir initially stores full rate δ0, concrete steps refer to summary of the invention.
3rd step, according to the rule of substantially regulating and storing of hydraulic engineering (rule of substantially regulating and storing refer to hydraulic engineering retain, rule of releasing) formulate the storage of polymerization reservoir and discharge water simulation drawing, it is determined that Influence of Water Conservancy Projects amount, concrete steps refer to summary of the invention；
4th step, using the TOPMODEL model parameter of first step calibration as simulating the underlying parameter without the flow anomaly situation in the less situation of Influence of Water Conservancy Projects or Influence of Water Conservancy Projects；According to actual measurement play Flood Information, taking the Calculation of Flood process of Influence of Water Conservancy Projects into consideration, rate makes flood generation pre-polymerization pondage parameter B, Pmax、Pmin, τ and polymerization reservoir storage discharge water simulation drawing parameter A, m, n, carry out flood forecasting.The Calculation of Flood flow process of this consideration Influence of Water Conservancy Projects refers to summary of the invention 4.1)-4.5).
On the basis of native state drag parameter, make flood generation pre-polymerization pondage parameter B=0.7, P according to observed flood ratemax=90, Pmin=20, τ=0.5；Polymerization reservoir stores puts simulation drawing parameter A=0.7, m=1.1, n=0.5.Adopting 1956～2010 years 26 history storm floods by the Influence of Water Conservancy Projects phase of parameter simulation that above-mentioned rate is reserved, simulation precision is improved largely, and the defective play of runoff yield is reduced to 0 by 7, and qualification rate is risen to 100% by 73%.This illustrates that the present invention considers the hydraulic engineering impact on flood forecasting, effectively reduces the uncertainty of flood forecasting result, improves Precision of Flood Forecast.
Claims (2)
1. the Flood Forecasting Method storing the simulation that discharges water based on polymerization reservoir, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps:
The first step, utilizes natural phase play Flood Information calibration TOPMODEL model parameter；The described natural phase is do not build hydraulic engineering or hydraulic engineering little period；
Hydraulic engineerings numerous in basin are aggregated into a polymerization reservoir by second step, calculate the storage capacity V of polymerization reservoir, it is determined that the initial of polymerization reservoir stores full rate δ0:
δ0=B χ0 τ+(1-B)ρ0(1)
Wherein,P7First 7 days total rainfalls, χ is there is for flood0For moment soil saturation degree a certain in peb process, parameter B, Pmax、Pmin, τ all obtained by optimization, 0 < δ0<1；
3rd step, discharges water simulation drawing according to the storage of the retaining of hydraulic engineering, law formulation of releasing polymerization reservoir, it is determined that Influence of Water Conservancy Projects amount；The storage of the described polymerization reservoir simulation drawing that discharges water can represent that the reservoir of a flood stores the full change procedure of rate, period net rainfall rate of releasing stores the change procedure of full rate with reservoir and period net rainfall is retained rate and stored the change procedure of full rate with reservoir；
The described period net rainfall curve that rate stores the change procedure of full rate corresponding with reservoir of releasing is k1=[(A-δ)/A]m；It is k that described period net rainfall retains rate with the curve that the change procedure of the full rate of reservoir storage is corresponding2=[(δ-A)/(1-A)]n；Influence of Water Conservancy Projects amount is:
(1) δ is worked ast< during A, the period amount of retaining △ R1,t=k1,tRt；
(2) δ is worked ast> A time, the period amount of releasing △ R2,t=k2,tRt；
Wherein, parameter A, m, n are obtained by optimization；k1,tAnd k2,tPut simulation drawing by polymerization reservoir storage to obtain, k1,tFor the rate of discharging water, k2,tFor the rate of retaining；RtFor period runoff yield；△R1,t、△R2,tFor period Influence of Water Conservancy Projects amount；
4th step, using the TOPMODEL model parameter of first step calibration as simulating the underlying parameter without the flow anomaly situation in the less situation of Influence of Water Conservancy Projects or Influence of Water Conservancy Projects；According to actual measurement play Flood Information, taking the Calculation of Flood process of Influence of Water Conservancy Projects into consideration, rate makes flood generation pre-polymerization pondage parameter B, Pmax、Pmin, τ and polymerization reservoir storage discharge water simulation drawing parameter A, m, n, carry out flood forecasting；
The described Calculation of Flood considering Influence of Water Conservancy Projects is:
4.1) natural forecast result R is obtained by the TOPMODEL model parameter of first step calibrationt；
4.2) the initial of the polymerization reservoir obtained according to second step stores full rate δ0With storage capacity V, the initial storage v of calculating polymerization reservoir0=δ0V；
4.3) the day part Influence of Water Conservancy Projects amount of retaining △ R is calculated1,tOr the amount of releasing △ R2,t；
Initialization period t=1, according to δ0Put simulation drawing with the polymerization reservoir of the 3rd step storage and obtain the period Influence of Water Conservancy Projects amount of retaining △ R1,1Or the amount of releasing △ R2,1, and calculate this period end storage capacity v of polymerization reservoir1And this period of reservoir stores full rate δ1=v1/ V, wherein v1=v0+△R1,1Or v1=v0-△R2,1；
Make period t=t+1, according to δt-1Store with the polymerization reservoir of the 3rd step and put simulation drawing and obtain period runoff and discharge water rate k1,tOr retain rate k2,t, thus obtaining the period Influence of Water Conservancy Projects amount of retaining △ R1,tOr the amount of releasing △ R2,t, and calculate the period end storage capacity v of polymerization reservoirtAnd the period of reservoir stores full rate δt=vt/ V, wherein vt=vt-1+△R1,tOr vt=vt-1-△R2,t；
4.4) according to step 4.3) the Influence of Water Conservancy Projects amount of the retaining △ R of gained1,tOr the amount of releasing △ R2,tCorrection Rt, obtain the period runoff yield R ' under Influence of Water Conservancy Projectst；
4.5) according to step 4.4) the period runoff yield R ' that obtainst, obtain the play flood simulation result Q ' under Influence of Water Conservancy Projectst。
2. a kind of Flood Forecasting Method storing the simulation that discharges water based on polymerization reservoir according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described second step calculates polymerization reservoir capacity V step and is: calculate storage capacity when big in basin, medium and small reservoirs and each auto polymerization of dyke hydraulic engineering；Big in basin, Small Reservoir and dyke are aggregated into a polymerization reservoir, and storage capacity sum during auto polymerization each using big, medium and small reservoirs and dyke is as the polymerization storage capacity of this polymerization reservoir；Storage capacity when described large, medium and small reservoir and each auto polymerization of dyke hydraulic engineering, is respectively as follows:
(1) large reservoir: the utilizable capacity of large reservoir is storage capacity during polymerization；
(2) medium and small reservoirs: analyze the existing operational data of reservoir and show in actual motion that storage capacity accounts for the ratio of aggregate storage capacity, and using the product of this ratio and medium and small reservoirs aggregate storage capacity as storage capacity when being polymerized；
(3) dyke: the storage capacity when aggregate storage capacity of dyke is as polymerization.
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| CN109948220A (en) * | 2019-03-12 | 2019-06-28 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 | Gate dam multiple target aerial drainage evaluation method and system |
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