CN105760575B - The defeated method for building up for moving, extending Numerical Prediction System of Bohai Sea marine oil overflow - Google Patents
The defeated method for building up for moving, extending Numerical Prediction System of Bohai Sea marine oil overflow Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of defeated shiftings of Bohai Sea marine oil overflow, extension Numerical Prediction System, after oil spilling can occurring to Bohai Sea sea point source and continuous source, sea product, oil spilling, oil film thickness, are swept to land or time for arriving at sensitizing range etc. is predicted at spreading range in the defeated shifting track of oil film, and prediction result can intuitive on the computer screen, Dynamically Announce.Situations such as according to the mode of prediction result selection spill response action, ship type, quantity and being laid with the oil fence or use detergent, so that oil spilling harm be mitigated or eliminated, reaches purpose of preventing and reducing natural disasters.It by the anti-tracking traced to the source Bohai Offshore oil spilling, is combined with finger-print and satellite remote sensing, finds out the source of marine oil overflow, so that it is determined that troublemaker.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to marine environment science, are related to marine oil overflow disperse and transport Fast Prediction technology, and in particular to a kind of
The defeated method for building up for moving, extending Numerical Prediction System of Bohai Sea marine oil overflow.
Background technique
It is estimated that about 10,000,000 tons of petroleum enter ocean every year in the whole world at present, account for about whole world petroleum total output
5%, incredible amount.It is most important the reason is that since oil carrier hits a submerged reef, touches although the reason of causing offshore oil pollution is various
Exploitation, oil well accident and the oil depot explosion of oil plant of petroleum and offshore oil field etc. for hitting accident etc. into ocean flow into sea
The petroleum in ocean, such accident oil spilling is the most serious, maximum to marine eco-environment destructive power, the most to living marine resources damage
Seriously, human health is endangered, anti-to hinder Activities of Ocean, especially in Nearshore Shallow Sea oil spilling, this influence is particularly acute.China
The Bohai Sea belongs to sanidal shallow sea area, in recent years since the development and utilization to the Bohai Sea is increasing, especially oil field development
Rapid development, in Bohai Sea, Bo Nan, Bo Xi and Liaodong Bay have offshore oil platform, submarine transport oil pipeline is even more time
Frequent marine transportation is added in cloth seabed, and make platform oil spilling, submerged pipeline rupture and oil carrier hits a submerged reef the accidents such as collision not
It is disconnected to occur.Oil spilling once enters ocean, experiencings complicated physics, chemistry and bioprocess, oil spilling is defeated to be moved, spread by it is a variety of because
The comprehensive interaction of element, the waters passed through, greasy dirt have a direct impact marine organisms and the marine eco-environment, and oil spilling is to land
Intertidal organism group can be seriously affected again, drastically influence the sustainable development of Bohai Sea resource.Therefore, research oil spilling exists
The defeated shifting at sea, flooding mechanism develop oil spilling Predicting Technique quickly and precisely, develop Bohai Offshore marine oil overflow numerical forecast
Mode, the afloat change procedure of Exact Forecast oil spilling mitigate marine oil overflow and cause environment and warp to adopting an effective measure in time
Ji loss, seawater quality and littoral aquaculture to the protection Bohai Sea marine eco-environment and the Bohai Sea, the Implement of sustainable development strategy
It is of great significance.For forecast, predict the disaster in the Bohai Sea and its littoral sea and take precautions against natural calamities, mitigation provides scientific theory foundation and grinds
Study carefully method.On the evaluation that the marine eco-environment influences, formulation of administrative department's contingency response system etc. is worth with important practical.
The software is mainly used in the fields such as anti-spill response action and the maritime affairs judicial expertise at spill response center.
Analysis and prediction for oil spilling diffusion are basis and the foundation of oil spilling processing and decision.American-European countries is from last century
Start the sixties to begin to predict marine oil overflow.Wherein the extension formula of the three-stage theory of Fay is still generally answered
With, but the hypothesis of Fay theory highlights oil in the extension on static sea, and ignore seawater internal turbulence and other factors (steaming
Hair, emulsification etc.) influence, applied to practical bay modeling have certain limitation, approximation is too big.Some researchers, which utilize, to be had
It limits difference method and solves convective-diffusive equation, oil spilling is considered as source item, establishes oil spilling numerical model, by solving convection current-expansion
Dissipate equation, numerical simulation oil spilling disperse and transport, but the method is limited in that the influence that cannot consider turbulent flow well, cannot
The detailed process of simulation oil defeated shifting and extension, cannot especially simulate the process at oil spilling initial stage, cannot be well by physics and change
Process combines, and the stream of single partial tide can only be also considered for trend, and accuracy is poor, cannot form Forecast Mode.
The theoretical research for being applied to marine oil spill Forecast Mode by more and more researchers of current particle STOCHASTIC DIFFUSION, establishes ocean
Oil spilling forecasting model, but in these researchs, often only consider certain single process or separate defeated shifting with diffusion process, foundation is overflow
Oily forecasting model, reports result thereafter and actual observation result is to meet in trend preferably, and gap is too big on magnitude, this is because
Elaioleucite as the particle of size constancy of volume, the chemistry, bioprocess such as evaporation, emulsification, dissolution are not considered.The U.S. adds and takes
Greatly, " oil spilling influences model application system (SIMAP and OiIMAP) " that the states such as Australia are generally using, oil spilling influences
The model part of numerical forecast, though the method that Monte Carlo particles track is utilized, it is defeated in ocean space to oil spilling
Not enough, dynamic process is not suitable for the Bohai Sea for shifting, diffusion mechanism research, and to be applied to the Bohai Sea need to develop again.
The current country is mainly full power oil film motion value mode to the research of offshore spilled oil Forecast Mode, though preferably
The process of marine instantaneous oil spilling is embodied, but the deficiency of this mode has been the assumption that oil film nothing in variation and motion process is torn
Phenomenon is split, this does not meet marine actual conditions, furthermore, it is more difficult to simulation enters the oil of water body, and (this is for the marine eco-environment
It is extremely important) and the case where marine continuous oil spilling, this is the limitation of method；Big mutually responsible institute, National Bureau of Oceanography and Billy
Shi Beihai and the cooperation of Escaut mouth mathematical model administrative office, utilize " elaioleucite " concept to establish simulation marine oil overflow behavior
Three-dimension Numerical Model avoids pseudo- diffusion effect caused by advection-diffusion conventional numeric method, but the mode not can solve oil
Evaporation, emulsification and dissolution physical chemistry interaction process to oil extension, it is defeated migrate for combined influence, cannot quantitatively provide
The key parameters such as oil concentration in oily residual quantity, oil film thickness and water body, there are the problem of be still by elaioleucite as oil
Measure the particle of constancy of volume.
Particle is represented to certain oil mass, the physics, change such as the afloat defeated shifting of oil spilling, extension and evaporation, emulsification, dissolution
Process, binding kinetics equation, with the movement of tracking random particles and loss and particle oil content (body with random particles
Product density) variation come numerical simulation marine oil overflow after each process, study marine oil overflow after multi-mechanism, establish the Bohai Sea overflow
Oily comprehensive forecasting mode, this is with current research similar both at home and abroad, the comprehensive comparison of similar technique in Bohai Sea field is leading.
Summary of the invention
To solve the above problems, the present invention provides a kind of defeated shifting of Bohai Sea marine oil overflow, extending building for Numerical Prediction System
Cube method.
To achieve the above object, the technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows:
The defeated method for building up for moving, extending Numerical Prediction System of Bohai Sea marine oil overflow, includes the following steps:
S1, building include the three-dimensional flow field of trend and wind current；
S11, trend field model is established:
Based on FV COM model foundation Bohai Sea tidal current field Forecast Mode, governing equation includes continuity equation and momentum side
Journey:
Continuity equation:
The X-direction equation of momentum:
The Y-direction equation of momentum:
Wherein: g is acceleration of gravity；F=2 Ω sin φ is Ke Shi parameter；Ω is ground tarnsition velocity；φ is geographic latitude；
ζ is the height of water level counted from still water；H is the depth of water counted from still water；D=h+ ζ；U, v, w are flow velocity, and p is pressure
By force, ρ is density of sea water；
S12, wind current model is established:
Using MM5 for wind current calculating provide by when wind field, using FVCOM forecast wind current, MM5 pass through three layers of nesting,
Realize 60h computational domain wind field data by when forecast；By cressman interpolation technique, obtain calculating on the sea in grid element
Square 10m wind force vector W10, when calculating wind current, mode input wind field is the east of wind speed W10, north component at 10m above sea,
Sea surface wind stress τ is converted to by following equations:
Wherein:
ρaFor atmospheric density, CDFor wind-stress coefficient, formula is determined are as follows:
θ is wind speed northeast component angle；
S13, trend and wind current prediction result are intercoupled, constitutes the three-dimensional flow field including trend and wind current；.
S2, the evaporation of building oil, the emulsification under wave action and dissolution physical and chemical process and Monte Carlo random theory
The theoretical model combined；
S3, building Monte Carlo particles track three dimensional non-linear couple dynamic model；
S4, building Bohai Sea three-dimensional oil spilling random motion numerical forecast model；
S5, existing oil spill for Bohai Sea data and the marine oily experimental data of practical throwing, verifying model are utilized；
S6, software of forecasting is established under GIS GIS-Geographic Information System.
The invention has the following advantages:
Based on the method for Monte Carlo particles track, construct Nonlinear Dynamical Model, by emulsification, evaporation and the dissolution of oil and
The influence of Three Dimensional Tidal Forecast Mode and wind, wave to oily behavior combines, and prediction Bohai Sea marine oil overflow is defeated to be moved, extends and return
Place, and software of forecasting is ultimately formed, sudden marine oil spill is accurately and fast forecast.The software of forecasting can be to Bo Haihai
After oil spilling occurs for area sea point source and continuous source, the defeated shifting track of oil film, spreading range, oil film thickness, sweep sea product, oil spilling supports
Bank or the time etc. for arriving at sensitizing range are predicted that prediction result can intuitive on the computer screen, Dynamically Announce.According to prediction
As a result situations such as selecting mode, ship type, quantity and the laying oil fence of spill response action or using detergent, to subtract
Light or elimination oil spilling harm, reaches purpose of preventing and reducing natural disasters.By the anti-tracking traced to the source Bohai Offshore oil spilling, with finger-print and
Satellite remote sensing combines, and finds out the source of marine oil overflow, so that it is determined that troublemaker.By sweeping the prediction of sea product etc. to oil film,
Living resources loss is assessed in conjunction with the investigation of living resources.Grid resolution 100m × the 100m of this software, trajectory predictions 10h
Interior error is no more than 2km.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the defeated method for building up for moving, extending Numerical Prediction System of the Bohai Sea of embodiment of the present invention marine oil overflow.
Fig. 2 is the heat balance schematic diagram of oil film.
Fig. 3 is oil film drift absolute fix curve and predicted position curve when throwing oil
Fig. 4 is that shipwreck is taken turns in the prediction result signal of 2004.7.8. days 7:30-23:30 in golden Jiangxi 6 in the embodiment of the present invention
Figure.
Fig. 5 is that shipwreck is taken turns in the prediction result of 06:00-11 days 2004.7.10 days 23:00 in golden Jiangxi 6 " in the embodiment of the present invention
Schematic diagram.
Specific embodiment
In order to which objects and advantages of the present invention are more clearly understood, the present invention is carried out with reference to embodiments further
It is described in detail.It should be appreciated that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the present invention, it is not used to limit this hair
It is bright.
As shown in Figure 1, the embodiment of the invention provides a kind of defeated shifting of Bohai Sea marine oil overflow, extending building for Numerical Prediction System
Cube method includes the following steps:
S1, building include the three-dimensional flow field of trend and wind current；
S11, trend field model is established:
Based on FV COM model foundation Bohai Sea tidal current field Forecast Mode, governing equation includes continuity equation and momentum side
Journey:
Continuity equation:
The X-direction equation of momentum:
The Y-direction equation of momentum:
Wherein: g is acceleration of gravity；F=2 Ω sin φ is Ke Shi parameter；Ω is ground tarnsition velocity；φ is geographic latitude；
ζ is the height of water level counted from still water；H is the depth of water counted from still water；D=h+ ζ；U, v, w are flow velocity, and p is pressure
By force, ρ is density of sea water；
S12, wind current model is established:
Using MM5 for wind current calculating provide by when wind field, using FVCOM forecast wind current, MM5 pass through three layers of nesting,
Realize 60h computational domain wind field data by when forecast；By cressman interpolation technique, obtain calculating on the sea in grid element
Square 10m wind force vector W10, when calculating wind current, mode input wind field is the east of wind speed W10, north component at 10m above sea,
Sea surface wind stress τ is converted to by following equations:
Wherein:
ρaFor atmospheric density, CDFor wind-stress coefficient, formula is determined are as follows:
θ is wind speed northeast component angle；
S13, trend and wind current prediction result are intercoupled, constitutes the three-dimensional flow field including trend and wind current；.
S2, the evaporation of building oil, the emulsification under wave action and dissolution physical and chemical process and Monte Carlo random theory
The theoretical model combined；
1) it evaporates
Shadow of the fuel film vaporization by the factors such as oil, temperature and water temperature, oil spill area, wind speed, solar radiation and oil film thickness
It rings.It is assumed that:
Unrestricted (temperature is substantially such higher than 0 DEG C and when oil film thickness is lower than 5-10cm) is spread inside oil film；
Oil film is thoroughly mixed；
The partial pressure of oil ingredient in an atmosphere can be neglected compared with vapour pressure.
Evaporation rate can be expressed from the next:
Wherein N is evaporation rate；Ke is the defeated shifting coefficient of substance；PSAT is vapour pressure；R is gas constant；T is temperature；M is point
Son amount；ρ is the density of oil ingredient；I is various oil ingredients.Kei is estimated by following formula:
Wherein k is evaporation coefficient；Sci is the steam Schmidts number of component i.
2) it emulsifies
1. forming emulsion oil-in-water process
Movement mechanism of the oil into water body includes dissolution, diffusion, precipitating etc..Diffusion is after oil spilling occurs initially in several weeks
Most important process.Diffusion is a kind of mechanical process, and the turbulent energy of water flow tears oil film at oil droplet, forms oil-in-water cream
Change.These emulsions can be stablized by surfactant, prevent oil droplet back to oil film.It is most important under severe weather conditions
Diffusion power is wave breaking, and most important diffusion is transported as the stretching, extension compression that stress is oil film under tranquil weather conditions
It is dynamic.The loss of oil composition amount in from oil slick's pervasion to water body calculates:
D=Da·Db
Wherein Da is into the component of water body；Db does not have the component returned after being into water body:
Wherein μoilFor the viscosity of oil；γowFor oil-water interfacial tension.
Oil droplet return oil film rate be；
2. forming water-in-oil emulsification process
The variation of Water in oil rate can be indicated by following formula equilibrium equation:
R1 and R2 is respectively the absorption rate and release rate of water, is given by.
WhereinFor maximum moisture content；ywFor practical moisture content；As is oily Asphalt Content (weight ratio)；Wax is in oil
Paraffin content (weight ratio)；K1, K2 are respectively absorption coefficient, release coefficient.
3) it dissolves
Dissolution rate is indicated with following formula:
WhereinFor the solubility of component i；For the molar fraction of component i；Mi is the molal weight of component i；Ksi
For dissolution mass tranfer coefficient, estimated by following formula:
Ksl=2.3610-6ei
Wherein:
4) Heat Migration
Vapour pressure is affected by temperature with viscosity, and observes the atmosphere and water for finding that the temperature of usual oil film is higher than surrounding
Body, Fig. 2 are the thermal balance schematic diagram of oil film.Wherein:
Diabatic process between 1=atmosphere and oil film；
Heat radiation process between 2=atmosphere and oil film；
3=solar radiation；
4=evaporative heat loss；
Heat Migration between 5=oil film and water body；
The heat radiation for distributing and receiving between 6=oil film and water body.
1. the Heat Migration between oil film and atmosphere
Heat Migration between oil film and atmosphere can be expressed as:
Wherein Toil is oil film temperature；Tair is atmospheric temperature；ρaFor atmospheric density；Cpa is the thermal capacity of atmosphere；Pr is
Atmosphere Prandtl number:
When evaporation is negligible,It can simply be calculated with following formula:
2. solar radiation
The solar radiation that oil film receives depends on many factors, and most important one is oil spilling position, date, moment, cloud
Water, dust, ozone content in thickness degree and atmosphere.Solar radiation variations in one day can be assumed that as sine curve:
Wherein tsunrise is sunrise moment (late night to morning number of seconds)；Tsunset is sunset moment (late night to morning number of seconds)；Td is
Day is long, it may be assumed that
tsunset=tsunrise+Td
Td is calculated by following formula:
Wherein φ is latitude；ζ be sun tilt angle (sun at noon when and equatorial plane angle)
For the interstellar radiation at high noon:
Wherein Isc is solar constant (1.353W/m)；N is number of days in 1 year.ω s is the hour angle of sunrise, when high noon
It is 0, is equal to 15 (are positive in the morning) per hour；Kt is coefficient, and Kt=0.75 when fine day is reduced as cloud thickness increases.Very
The solar radiation of big a part is reflected when reaching ground, therefore net heat inputs are as follows:
(1-a)·H(t)
Wherein a is diffusion coefficient (albedo).
3. evaporative heat loss
Evaporation will cause oil film thermal loss:
Wherein Δ HviFor the heat of vaporization of component i.The total dynamic thermal balance of oil film has comprehensively considered above-mentioned various factors:
4. the Heat Migration between oil film and water body
Heat Migration between oil film and atmosphere can be expressed as:
Wherein Cpw is the thermal capacity of water.Prw is the Prandtl number of water:
Re is characterized Reynolds number:
Wherein vrel is the kinematic coefficient of viscosity of oil film.
(5) reflect and receive radiation
Oil film will lose and receive long-wave radiation.Net receiving amount is calculated by Stefan-Boltzman formula:
Wherein, σ is Stefan-Boltzman constant [5.72108W/ (m2K)]；Lair, Iwater, Ioil are respectively
The radiance of big gas and water and oil.
S3, building Monte Carlo particles track three dimensional non-linear couple dynamic model；
The afloat diffusion process of oil spilling is actually a disperse process of turbulent flow, and the randomness of turbulent dispersion, can
It is properly described with Monte Carlo method.It is that certain event occurs when the problem of required solution
When probability or some expectation of a random variable, the method that they can be tested by certain is obtained this
The average value of probability or this random variable that event occurs, and use them as the solution of problem.
When solving diffusion problem, using the randomness of diffusion phenomena, by giving turbulence intensity, time scale and particle
Number, while giving random number, acquires the diffusion of particle.Diffusion random number used, there are two types of methods to generate, i.e., uniformly with
The method of the method and normal random number of machine number.
1) hypothesis a, the uniform random number of b, c between (- 0.5~0.5), then:
A=a (a2+b2+c2)1/2；
B=b (a2+b2+c2)1/2；
C=c (a2+b2+c2)1/2
The mean value of expression is zero, because having discrete 1/3 distribution.Dispersion variance σ 2 and diffusion coefficient it
Between relationship are as follows: (the 2 Δ t) of k=σ 2/.Then the x equivalent with particle Particle diffusion, y, the direction z particle it is mobile away from
From lx, ly, lz are as follows:
lx=A (6 Δ tKx)1/2
ly=B (6 Δ tKy)1/2
lz=C (6 Δ tKz)1/2
2) assume a, the normal random number of b, c between (0~1), a, b, c mean value is zero, take (0,1) normal distribution, then:
lx=a (2 Δ tKx)1/2
ly=b (2 Δ tKy)1/2
lz=c (2 Δ tKz)1/2
Oil concentration calculates, and N number of particle in t=0, if x=y=z=0, in t=t, with entering, particle in grid is a
Number is converted into concentration.The concentration acquired in this way, when number of particles is few, concentration value will be at sixes and sevens, needs to make
It is appropriate smooth, for example, around 27 grid carry out average (using 9 grid when two-dimentional), it is irregular to can inhibit distribution in this way
Extremum.
GS4, building Bohai Sea three-dimensional oil spilling random motion numerical forecast model；
1) oil film trajectory predictions
On the basis of the environmental forces parameter that environmental forces model provides, using Euler -- Lagrangian method for tracing,
Carry out the prediction of oil film centrode.Oil film center excursD speed depends on ocean surface wind speed and subsurface runoff, is room and time
Function, speed interpolation where value oil film central point on three mesh points of grid and obtain, the speed net on mesh point
The speed interpolation of Order Triangular Elements central point is got around lattice point.The component velocity on the direction xy on each grid node in space is in some time
It carves are as follows:
Wherein Vrx、VryFor the xy durection component of mesh point upper epidermis flow velocity, be tidal current field is superimposed with wind current；Vwind
Forecast wind speed on mesh point, a are wind factor, θ0For wind direction, θ is drift drift angle of the elaioleucite by wind effect.
The value of θ and the size of wind speed are related, formula are as follows:
Elaioleucite drift orbit calculation formula are as follows:
Wherein: S0For initial time, S is oil film central point position, Vl(x (t), y (t), t) is Lagrange tracking
Speed,
2) the defeated shifting prediction of oil slick spread
Diffusion process caused by shearing flow and turbulent flow belongs to random motion, and available random method of walking about realizes simulation.Due to each
The random motion of particle and lead to diffusion process of the entire particle cloud cluster in water body.It can for water surface Stochastic Model
It is described with following formula:
ra'=R (6kaΔt)1/2
Wherein: ra' for the turbulence diffusion length on α=direction (x, y, z)；R uniform random number between [- 1,1].ka
For the turbulent diffusivity on the direction α, Δ t is time step.
The drift of oil spilling is advection process, diffusion process, the coefficient result of wind.
Displacement of i-th of particle within the Δ t period may be expressed as:
xi=uiΔt+rx′
yi=viΔt+ry′
Wherein: ui=uStream+uWind；vi=vStream+vWind；
rx', ry' it is the random movement distance on x, the direction y
uStream, uWind, vStream, vWind, all found out by environmental dynamics model.
Since each particle represents certain oil mass, position and representative oil mass where mark particle can be calculated
The expanding area and oil film thickness of oil spilling.
S5, existing oil spill for Bohai Sea data and the marine oily experimental data of practical throwing, verifying model are utilized
55 divide Chinese Marine University and Yantai spill response center at (122 ° of Yantai off-lying sea point when 17 days 4 May in 2001
14 ' 48 " E, 38 ° 00 ' 35 " N) at combine and carried out throwing oil test, line trace of going forward side by side positioning.Fig. 3 is that oil film drift is real when throwing oil
Survey position curve and predicted position curve, it is known that measured value and predicted value are coincide substantially.
S6, software of forecasting is established under GIS GIS-Geographic Information System；
Oil spilling prediction and warning visualization system includes three parts task: Functional mould design, map datum processing and number
It is built according to library, GIS visualization system secondary development design.
1) Functional mould design
Tidal current field forecasting model, wind current prediction model and oil spilling model are programmed by Fortran language
And dynamic link library (Dynamic Link Library, DLL) file is generated, the program module debugged is generated
DLL.Dll file encapsulates all functions of modules, in system development, by GIS platform, generalized information system part is allowed to reserve phase
The dll file of the Fortran language generation of each module is embedded in by the open interface answered, and carries out two in conjunction with ArcEngine component
Secondary exploitation, certain order controls on visualization interface are improved in exploitation as requested, complete correlometer to call DLL model
It calculates, the function of providing core for visualization system supports that finally the results are shown on interface.
2) map datum processing and database establishment
Library is built according to the various data that the module design stage needs, the GIS map data of foundation can be by it from content
It is divided into spatial data and its corresponding attribute data.Spatial data is divided into raster data and vector data again, including various
Gradient map and thematic map.
3) secondary development of GIS visualization system designs
GIS visualization system secondary development design is after keying in corresponding functional module, in the base of GIS database system
On plinth, the various predictions of items of cost exploitation are collected using GIS-Geographic Information System tool software and visual programming technique, finally
It realizes the displaying of relevant information and provides useful information with aid decision.Wherein, system designs and develops the selection of language platform
Visual Basic.net2005、ArcEngine9.2。
This specific implementation is for the first time with the imperial lattice with fourth-order accuracy -- and library tower method solves elaioleucite advection process, this method
Euler's method precision than single order and second order is high, and the prediction of oil spilling is made more to meet reality；It is first with Monte Carlo particles track method
It is secondary to realize the efflorescences such as dynamic process combination evaporation, emulsification in the Bohai Sea, with the movement of elaioleucite and volume change and loss
It is comprehensive to solve.
Wherein, the Runge-Kutta methods of fourth-order accuracy solve elaioleucite advection process are as follows:
After oil spilling occurs, oil film issues life shifting movement in wind, subsurface runoff effect, this is substantially oil film cutting in wind
Lagrangian Drift Process under the environmental forces effect that stress, subsurface runoff synthesize.Lagrangian particle tracing model can be right
The traveling locus of coastal waters oil spilling is described, thus problem is converted to the solution to the Lagrangian model equation.Glug is bright
Day, particles track track was based on following vector equation:
X in formulaiFor particle coordinate, vaFor the advection speed of coordinate i, the value in discrete time is determined by hydrodynamic model,
vdFor random velocity.
Runge-Kutta methods solve a kind of technology for substantially using Taylor series indirectly, and each step needs No. 4 meters
Functional value is calculated, truncated error is 0 (h5), differential equation Runge-Kutta methods solution can indicate are as follows:
Above-mentioned Runge-Kutta methods need to ask the velocity amplitude of intermediate time, and intermediate time speed is acquired with interpolation method,
Quadravalence interpolation speed are as follows:
N+1, n, n-1, the flow speed value at n-2 moment have been used in formula.
Embodiment
Morning on July 8th, 2004, S.Korean nationality merchant ship " SAEHA NACAXY " wheel and a Chinese merchant ship " golden Jiangxi
6 " wheel 121 ° 23 ' 17 of waters in the middle part of Bohai Haixia ", 38 ° 21 ' 51 " place crashes, and " golden Jiangxi 6 " wheel sinks immediately, ship
Upper shared 90 tons of fuel oil, occurs oil spilling spill and leakage immediately.Using the software, to this oil spill accident carried out spilled oil drift track and
DIFFUSION PREDICTION (prognostic chart shape is as shown in Figure 4, Figure 5), Fig. 1 are as follows: " golden Jiangxi 6 " wheel shipwreck oil spilling prediction place: 121 ° 23 ' 17 ",
38°21′51″；Predicted time: 2004.7.8. days 7:30-23:30 predicted time intervals: 1h, prediction of wind speed, wind direction: northeaster
2m/s；Fig. 2 is " golden Jiangxi 6 " wheel shipwreck oil spilling prediction place: 121 ° 23 ' 17 ", 38 ° 21 ' 51 ", predicted time: 2004.7.10 days
06:00-11 days 23:00 predicted time intervals: 3h, prediction of wind speed, wind direction: southeaster turns northeaster 8m/s, continuous oil spilling 0.1
Ton/hour
Due to lacking after oil spilling to the monitoring data data of oil film, it is difficult to judge the accuracy and precision of prediction result,
But according to the description for the operating personnel that rushes to the scene, trajectory predictions on the 8th have accurately predicted the specific location of oil, and model expanded on 9th
It dissipates prediction result and at sea finds that the place of oil spilling band and time coincide with Field Force；The result and discovery oil film of prediction on the 12
Position also substantially coincide.
The above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, it is noted that for the ordinary skill people of the art
For member, without departing from the principle of the present invention, it can also make several improvements and retouch, these improvements and modifications are also answered
It is considered as protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (1)
1. the defeated method for building up for moving, extending Numerical Prediction System of Bohai Sea marine oil overflow, which comprises the steps of:
S1, building include the three-dimensional flow field of trend and wind current；
S11, trend field model is established:
Based on FV COM model foundation Bohai Sea tidal current field Forecast Mode, governing equation includes continuity equation and the equation of momentum:
Continuity equation:
The X-direction equation of momentum:
The Y-direction equation of momentum:
Wherein: g is acceleration of gravity；F=2 Ω sin φ is Ke Shi parameter；Ω is ground tarnsition velocity；φ is geographic latitude；ζ is
The height of water level counted from still water；H is the depth of water counted from still water；D=h+ ζ；U, v, w are flow velocity, and p is pressure, p
For density of sea water；
S12, wind current model is established:
Using MM5 for wind current calculating provide by when wind field, using FVCOM forecast wind current, MM5 pass through three layers of nesting, realize
60h computational domain wind field data by when forecast；By cressman interpolation technique, obtain calculating above the sea in grid element
10m wind force vector W10, when calculating wind current, mode input wind field is the east of wind speed W10, north component at 10m above sea, is led to
It crosses following equation and is converted to sea surface wind stress τs:
Wherein:
ρaFor atmospheric density, CDFor wind-stress coefficient, formula is determined are as follows:
θ is wind speed northeast component angle；
S13, trend and wind current prediction result are intercoupled, constitutes the three-dimensional flow field including trend and wind current；
S2, the evaporation of building oil, the emulsification under wave action and dissolution physical and chemical process are mutually tied with Monte Carlo random theory
The theoretical model of conjunction；
S3, building Monte Carlo particles track three dimensional non-linear couple dynamic model；
S4, building Bohai Sea three-dimensional oil spilling random motion numerical forecast model；
S5, existing oil spill for Bohai Sea data and the marine oily experimental data of practical throwing, verifying model are utilized；
S6, software of forecasting is established under GIS GIS-Geographic Information System.
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| CN117422685B (en) * | 2023-10-30 | 2024-06-11 | 天津东泉石油技术开发有限公司 | Offshore platform oil spill surrounding control method, system, electronic equipment and storage medium |
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