CN105740615A - Method for tracking infection sources and predicting trends of infectious diseases by utilizing mobile phone tracks - Google Patents

Method for tracking infection sources and predicting trends of infectious diseases by utilizing mobile phone tracks Download PDF

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Publication number
CN105740615A
CN105740615A CN201610060508.XA CN201610060508A CN105740615A CN 105740615 A CN105740615 A CN 105740615A CN 201610060508 A CN201610060508 A CN 201610060508A CN 105740615 A CN105740615 A CN 105740615A
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mobile phone
data
infection
track
new infections
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CN105740615B (en
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陆家海
刘荣飞
杜依蔓
宋征
张珂艺
李泽纯
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Guangzhou Yixianjian Technology Co.,Ltd.
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Sun Yat Sen University
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    • HELECTRICITY
    • H04ELECTRIC COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE
    • H04WWIRELESS COMMUNICATION NETWORKS
    • H04W4/00Services specially adapted for wireless communication networks; Facilities therefor
    • H04W4/02Services making use of location information
    • H04W4/029Location-based management or tracking services
    • GPHYSICS
    • G16INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR SPECIFIC APPLICATION FIELDS
    • G16HHEALTHCARE INFORMATICS, i.e. INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR THE HANDLING OR PROCESSING OF MEDICAL OR HEALTHCARE DATA
    • G16H50/00ICT specially adapted for medical diagnosis, medical simulation or medical data mining; ICT specially adapted for detecting, monitoring or modelling epidemics or pandemics
    • G16H50/80ICT specially adapted for medical diagnosis, medical simulation or medical data mining; ICT specially adapted for detecting, monitoring or modelling epidemics or pandemics for detecting, monitoring or modelling epidemics or pandemics, e.g. flu
    • HELECTRICITY
    • H04ELECTRIC COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE
    • H04LTRANSMISSION OF DIGITAL INFORMATION, e.g. TELEGRAPHIC COMMUNICATION
    • H04L67/00Network arrangements or protocols for supporting network services or applications
    • H04L67/01Protocols
    • H04L67/12Protocols specially adapted for proprietary or special-purpose networking environments, e.g. medical networks, sensor networks, networks in vehicles or remote metering networks
    • YGENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y02TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02ATECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02A90/00Technologies having an indirect contribution to adaptation to climate change
    • Y02A90/10Information and communication technologies [ICT] supporting adaptation to climate change, e.g. for weather forecasting or climate simulation

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  • Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
  • Public Health (AREA)
  • Medical Informatics (AREA)
  • Computer Networks & Wireless Communication (AREA)
  • Signal Processing (AREA)
  • General Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
  • Biomedical Technology (AREA)
  • Computing Systems (AREA)
  • Data Mining & Analysis (AREA)
  • Databases & Information Systems (AREA)
  • Pathology (AREA)
  • Epidemiology (AREA)
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  • Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
  • Telephonic Communication Services (AREA)

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for tracking infection sources and predicting trends of infectious diseases by utilizing mobile phone tracks. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring new infected person data from a disease control and prevention center to obtain new infected persons; acquiring mobile phone traffic data and related base station data of the new infected persons in periods of time before and after the attack; carrying out track visualized analysis on the mobile phone traffic data and the related base station data of the new infected persons on a geographic information system platform; and analyzing the high-danger areas and crowds with infectious disease transmission, and predicting the trends of the infectious diseases. According to the method disclosed in the invention, the mobile phone tracks of the new infected persons and the geographic information system are combined, so that the regions through which the infection sources pass and the environmental conditions of the regions can be rapidly and correctly judged, the high-danger areas and crowds can be determined and prevention and control measures can be adopted in time.

Description

Utilize the mobile phone trajectory track source of infection and the method for prediction disease transmission trend
Technical field
The present invention relates to the prevention of infectious disease and control field, particularly relate to a kind of method utilizing the mobile phone trajectory track source of infection and prediction disease transmission trend.
Background technology
At present, China is mainly focused on the isolation etc. to the control suffering from patient and high-risk group for " remedial " measure of emerging infectious disease, but some disease is because the feature of spread path, and potential high-risk group is widely distributed, and the source of disease of infectious disease determines that the prediction with fashion trend is comparatively difficult.In the past for the judgement of infectious disease transmission mode, by clinical symptoms and Epidemiological study, have tunnel vision, process is complicated, the used time is longer, and be likely to not study result.
GIS-Geographic Information System (GIS) is a kind of specific system, refer to that computer is under hardware and software are supported, the relevant geographic distribution data in earth surface (including atmosphere) space all or in part is acquired, stores, manages, computing, analyze, be shown and described and the technological system of aid decision.The process of GIS-Geographic Information System, management to as if multiple geospatial entity data and relation thereof, including space orientation data, graph data, remote sensing image data, attribute data etc., for analyzing and process various phenomenons and the process of distribution in certain geographic area, solve the planning of complexity, decision-making and problem of management.
GIS is widely used in the research in multiple field due to its powerful function, and reaps in abundant.GIS is applied to field of public health abroad very early, also begins to obtain using the such as CDC such as Hangzhou and Jinan to be assembled with GIS for control and prevention of disease widely at China's field of public health in recent years.Current GIS has been applied to the many aspects such as pandemic preparedness control, disease surveillance, Health Resource, health need, health education, community sanitary evaluation, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment and has achieved good effect.
The ArcGIS commercial GIS platform of research and development (U.S. environment system research institute): ArcGIS product line provide the user one telescopic, comprehensive GIS platform.ArcObjects contains substantial amounts of programmable component, it is extremely wide that object (such as mutual with existing ArcMap document map object) from fine-grained object (such as single geometric object) to coarseness relates to face, and these objects are integrated with comprehensive GIS function for developer.Each uses the ArcObjects ArcGIS product built up to provide the container of an application and development for developer, including desktop GIS (ArcGISDesktop), Embedded GIS (ArcGISEngine) and service end GIS (ArcGISServer).
Apriori algorithm is the algorithm of the most influential a kind of Mining Boolean Association Rules frequent item set.Its core is based on two benches frequency and collects the recursive algorithm of thought.This correlation rule belongs to one-dimensional, monolayer, Boolean Association Rules in classification.Here, all supports are called frequent item set more than the item collection of minimum support, are called for short frequency collection.
At present, China mobile phone user has reached 900,000,000 more than, the prosperity of the universal and modern cell phones location technology of mobile communication, mobile phone signal is collected thus analyzing useful information for us, track is visualized, for us, mobile phone signal is applied to area of infectious disease as location instrument, the health and fitness information of the positional information of user Yu user is connected, provide a kind of new method for the prevention of infectious disease and control.
Summary of the invention
Present situation that combined handset communication of the present invention is universal and modern cell phones location technology, utilize GIS-Geographic Information System that the propagation of the source of infection and infectious disease carries out quickly location and following the trail of, by modern cell phones communication first Application to on the tracking of infectious disease and controlling.
The present invention proposes a kind of method utilizing the mobile phone trajectory track source of infection and prediction disease transmission trend, including step:
S1: from Disease Control and Prevention Center's person's data that obtain new infections, it is determined that described new infections person is the source of infection;
S2: the mobile phone traffic data in a period of time and associated base stations data thereof after obtaining described new infections person's premorbid and falling ill;
S3: described mobile phone traffic data and associated base stations data are carried out in GIS platform the track visual analyzing of new infections person;
S4: analyze high risk zone and the crowd of disease transmission, it was predicted that disease transmission trend.
Further, a period of time described in step S2 is one week to two weeks.
Further, the mobile phone traffic data of new infections person described in step S2 includes the time of user's trigger traffic, user communication business type and ID users;Described associated base stations data include the base station location region recognition number relevant to described mobile phone traffic data and base station section station location marker number.
Further, GIS platform described in step S3 is ArcGIS Visualization Platform.
Further, step S3 includes step: adopt Apriori algorithm that described mobile phone traffic data and associated base stations data carry out the track visual analyzing of new infections person on ArcGIS Visualization Platform.
Further, step S3 includes step:
S31: track characteristic extracts, and mobile phone traffic data and associated base stations data are carried out pretreatment, the trip feature of the person that draws new infections and dwell point thereof;
Pretreated data are inputted described GIS platform by S32: visual analyzing, carry out new infections person and go on a journey the visual analyzing of track data.
Closer, step S32 includes the semantization of location data, and the semantization of location data includes step:
S321: the semantization of track data geographic location;
S322: dwell point is extracted and track semantization.
Further, step S4 includes step: infer its infection time and place according to the mobile phone track of single new infections person, is learnt possible plague area and the initial source of infection by the mobile phone track similitude of different new infections persons.
Further, predicting the fashion trend of infectious disease described in described step S4, its method includes but not limited to single-population method, compound population method and the one in microscopic individual method or its combination.
The beneficial effects of the present invention is, the present invention utilizes the mobile phone trajectory track source of infection and the method for prediction disease transmission trend, by the mobile phone track combining geographic information system of new infections person, area and the environmental aspect of source of infection process can be judged quickly and accurately, be conducive to determining high risk zone and crowd, take prevention and control measure in time.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the method flow diagram of the present invention.
Detailed description of the invention
Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawing in the embodiment of the present invention, the technical scheme in the embodiment of the present invention is clearly and completely described, it is clear that described embodiment is only a part of embodiment of the present invention, rather than whole embodiments.Based on the embodiment in the present invention, the every other embodiment that those of ordinary skill in the art obtain under not making creative work premise, broadly fall into the scope of protection of the invention.
Referring to Fig. 1, the present invention utilizes the mobile phone trajectory track source of infection and the method for prediction disease transmission trend, including step:
S1: from Disease Control and Prevention Center's person's data that obtain new infections, it is determined that described new infections person is the source of infection;
S2: obtain after described new infections person's premorbid and morbidity in a period of time mobile phone traffic data and associated base stations data;
S3: described mobile phone traffic data and associated base stations data are carried out in GIS platform the track visual analyzing of new infections person;
S4: analyze high risk zone and the crowd of disease transmission, it was predicted that disease transmission trend.
In step s 2, linked up by common carrier such as China Mobile, CHINAUNICOM and China Telecom etc., after the person's premorbid that can obtain new infections and morbidity, a period of time is such as the mobile phone traffic data in a week to two week, and the mobile phone traffic data of described new infections person includes the time of user's trigger traffic, user communication business type and ID users;Described associated base stations data include the base station location region recognition number relevant to described mobile phone traffic data and base station section station location marker number.
In step s3, described GIS platform can adopt ArcGIS Visualization Platform, and adopts Apriori algorithm that described mobile phone traffic data and associated base stations data are carried out the track visual analyzing of new infections person on ArcGIS Visualization Platform.
Step S3 includes step S31 and step S32.
Step S31: track characteristic extracts, and mobile phone traffic data and associated base stations data thereof are carried out pretreatment, the trip feature of the person that draws new infections and dwell point thereof.Use the clustering algorithm of room and time, mobile phone traffic data and associated base stations data thereof are carried out pretreatment, the dwell point that new infections person is had Special Significance can be extracted, the resident user of being often referred to stops the region exceeding certain time at certain geospatial area, new infections person is often had special meaning by such region, so also referred to as point of interest or region-of-interest.
Pretreated data are inputted described GIS platform by step S32: visual analyzing, carry out new infections person and go on a journey the visual analyzing of track data.For ArcGIS visual analyzing platform, unified for pretreated data input Access data base's unified management, it is achieved new infections person goes on a journey the visual analyzing of track data.Then position the semantization (semantic track: comprise people and move reason and mobile approach relevant information) of data, provide abundant Information base for further digging user track
Wherein, step S32 includes the semantization of location data, and the semantization of location data includes step S321 and step S322.
Step S321: the semantization of track data geographic location.Carry out semantization based on POI data geographical position: from map datum manufacturer, such as high moral map etc., obtain POI keyword either directly through buying.Select all geographical position relevant with the infectious disease source of infection and propagation model in region, such as birds trade market, slaughterhouse, zoo, agriculture and animal husbandry field etc., shown by spaces union with the application data (social economy's level, population mobility, social mores feature etc.) and environmental geography background data (climate characteristic, animal distribution, water source distribution etc.) with realistic meaning, it is achieved geographical position semantic makes label substance and infectious disease closely related.
Step S322: dwell point is extracted and track semantization.Extract track dwell point, the starting point of prominent new infections person trip and destination, obtain the resident position of new infections person, it is achieved data compression, reduce hash amount.Time threshold is set and capacity-threshold extracts dwell point, then extract the geographical semantics information obtaining the centre of location, infer the trip rule of this new infections person.
In step s 4, area and the environmental aspect of its process can be inferred according to the mobile phone track of single new infections person, learn possible plague area and the initial source of infection by the mobile phone track similitude of different new infections persons.The method being predicted the fashion trend of infectious disease for different types of infectious disease includes but not limited to single-population method, compound population method and the one in microscopic individual method or its combination.Utilize these existing achievements in research, propagation model can be set up, it was predicted that its fashion trend.
By the visual analyzing of mobile phone track data as a result, it is possible to the source of infection to be accomplished early discovery, early isolation, early treatment, cut off route of transmission, protect Susceptible population, breaking out of control infectious disease.The method that the outburst of control infectious disease can be taked includes the resident place on environment ArcMap (providing geographic information data visualization interface and data analysing method in ArcMap:ArcGIS) is carried out dissipation, slaughters and eliminates the animal that there is the risk that spreads disease;Determine Susceptible population, carry out early intervention (mode such as vaccination, health monitoring, communication and education);Analyze the source of infection and the route of transmission of emerging infectious disease, provide instruction for epidemic prevention and control.
Disease transmission is the process of one occurred in crowd complicated diffusion, from finding disease, determine pathogen, determining route of transmission and spread path, it is controlled to disease, it is a very long process at present, traditional method, after finding the source of infection, generally carries out questionnaire survey, analyzes the place that patient went, so expending a large amount of manpowers, use duration, result inaccurate, this stage has often missed the good opportunity of many control diseases.And the technical approach of the present invention is the data gone on a journey by mobile phone, can fast and effeciently recognize trip feature and the route of primary infection person, in particular cases the source of infection can also be carried out Real-time and Dynamic tracking, timely and effectively its people contacted and ground are carried out Disease Intervention, not only accurately facilitate, also save substantial amounts of a large amount of manpower, material resources and financial resources.
In prior art to the source of infection follow the trail of the hand data collection adopted, the subjective judgment of the individual that may adulterate in being described by the interview of respondent or forgotten memory etc. so that the data of collection are not accurate enough, not comprehensively, subjective not.And technical scheme directly can obtain data from data set provider third party, and then data are analyzed, so substantially increase the credibility of data.Meanwhile, in traditional method, staff generally requires disease scene remove real-time investigation when gathering data, is exposed under disease settings, the close contact source of infection and add risk of catching an illness.And technical scheme makes staff directly third party can be provided to intercept data in the data of cooperation, this has ensured the safety of staff.
The above is the preferred embodiment of the present invention; it should be pointed out that, for those skilled in the art, under the premise without departing from the principles of the invention; can also making some improvements and modifications, these improvements and modifications are also considered as protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (9)

1. utilize the mobile phone trajectory track source of infection and the method for prediction disease transmission trend, it is characterised in that include step:
S1: from Disease Control and Prevention Center's person's data that obtain new infections, it is determined that described new infections person is the source of infection;
S2: the mobile phone traffic data in a period of time and associated base stations data thereof after obtaining described new infections person's premorbid and falling ill;
S3: described mobile phone traffic data and associated base stations data are carried out in GIS platform the track visual analyzing of new infections person;
S4: analyze high risk zone and the crowd of disease transmission, it was predicted that disease transmission trend.
2. utilize the mobile phone trajectory track source of infection and the method for prediction disease transmission trend as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that a period of time described in step S2 is one week to two weeks.
3. utilize the mobile phone trajectory track source of infection and the method for prediction disease transmission trend as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that, the mobile phone traffic data of new infections person described in step S2 includes the time of user's trigger traffic, user communication business type and ID users;Described associated base stations data include the base station location region recognition number relevant to described mobile phone traffic data and base station section station location marker number.
4. utilize the mobile phone trajectory track source of infection and the method for prediction disease transmission trend as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that GIS platform described in step S3 is ArcGIS Visualization Platform.
5. utilize the mobile phone trajectory track source of infection and the method for prediction disease transmission trend as claimed in claim 4, it is characterized in that, step S3 includes step: adopt Apriori algorithm that described mobile phone traffic data and associated base stations data carry out the track visual analyzing of new infections person on ArcGIS Visualization Platform.
6. utilize the mobile phone trajectory track source of infection and the method for prediction disease transmission trend as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that step S3 comprises the following steps:
S31: track characteristic extracts, and mobile phone traffic data and associated base stations data are carried out pretreatment, the trip feature of the person that draws new infections and dwell point thereof;
Pretreated data are inputted described GIS platform by S32: visual analyzing, carry out new infections person and go on a journey the visual analyzing of track data.
7. utilize the mobile phone trajectory track source of infection and the method for prediction disease transmission trend as claimed in claim 6, it is characterised in that step S32 includes the semantization of location data, and the semantization of location data includes step:
S321: the semantization of track data geographic location;
S322: dwell point is extracted and track semantization.
8. utilize the mobile phone trajectory track source of infection and the method for prediction disease transmission trend as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that, step S4 includes step: infer its infection time and place according to the mobile phone track of single new infections person, is learnt possible plague area and the initial source of infection by the mobile phone track similitude of different new infections persons.
9. utilize the mobile phone trajectory track source of infection and the method for prediction disease transmission trend as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that, predicting the fashion trend of infectious disease described in described step S4, its method includes but not limited to the one in single-population method, compound population method and microscopic individual method or its combination.
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