CN105719020B - Method for determining year-end water storage level of multi-year regulation reservoir - Google Patents
Method for determining year-end water storage level of multi-year regulation reservoir Download PDFInfo
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- CN105719020B CN105719020B CN201610039927.5A CN201610039927A CN105719020B CN 105719020 B CN105719020 B CN 105719020B CN 201610039927 A CN201610039927 A CN 201610039927A CN 105719020 B CN105719020 B CN 105719020B
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for determining an optimal year-end water storage level of a multi-year regulation reservoir, which comprises the following steps of firstly dispersing the water storage state of the reservoir according to the precision requirement; secondly, calculating the expected annual average generated energy of each water storage state at the end of the year under the condition of multi-year operation of the reservoir by utilizing a reservoir scheduling rule; then, calculating the optimal annual power generation capacity by taking the reservoir water level at the beginning of the faced time interval, the forecast warehousing water-coming process from the faced time interval to the end of the year and the water storage water level at the end of each year as initial and boundary conditions; finally, the annual power generation amount corresponding to each year end water storage state and the expected annual average power generation amount are added to obtain the total power generation amount corresponding to each year end water storage state, and the water level corresponding to the year end water storage state corresponding to the maximum total power generation value is the optimal year end water storage level of the current year; the invention provides a method for determining the optimal year-end water storage level of a multi-year regulation reservoir, which combines random simulation and deterministic optimization and can be selected by a scheduling rule and an optimization calculation method, and the discrete precision of the year-end water storage level determined by the method is controllable.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of reservoir scheduling, and particularly relates to a determination method for adjusting the water storage level of a reservoir at the end of a year.
Background
The determination of regulating the annual end storage level of a reservoir for many years is a complicated problem and is the key for ensuring the long-term normal operation of the reservoir (group). The purpose of regulating reservoir dispatching for many years is to store excess water in the water reservoir for the rich water year so as to supplement the insufficient water in the dry water year. Therefore, the adjustment of the operation of the reservoir for many years not only affects the benefit of the current year, but also affects the benefit of a plurality of years later, and the key of reservoir scheduling is how to scientifically and reasonably control the water storage level at the end of the year, so that the sum of the power generation amount (benefit) of the hydropower station in the current year and the power generation amount (benefit) of the reservoir in the future reaches the optimum. The method not only has great influence on the reservoir itself, but also on the operation of reservoir groups connected with water conservancy, electric power and the like. Unfortunately, the current research on this problem is not extensive and, in summary, there are two main approaches:
1) deterministic optimization method
The method is characterized in that an optimized dispatching model is established by taking the maximum sum of the annual generated energy (benefit) and the annual terminal reservoir stored energy (benefit) of the reservoir as an objective function, and the annual terminal water storage level is optimized, so that the method is relatively comprehensive in consideration of problems. The terminal-of-year reservoir energy storage (benefit) aims to consider the long-term influence of the regulation of reservoir scheduling for many years on the later period, and currently, the commonly adopted method is to calculate the corresponding reservoir energy storage through the terminal-of-year water storage level.
2) Hidden random optimization method
And screening influence factors according to the long series optimization scheduling result of the reservoir (or reservoir group), and establishing a correlation between the end-of-year water storage level and the influence factors to serve as a control rule of the end-of-year water storage level. The key of the idea is the selection of the influence factors and the determination of the relevant relationship form. The regulation of the annual terminal water storage level of the reservoir for many years is not only related to the water level and the warehousing water quantity of the reservoir at the beginning of the year, but also possibly related to the coming water of the next few years, the regulation modes of other power stations in the reservoir group, the water use conditions of main branches and branch streams and the like, and a plurality of influence factors exist, and at present, the factors are mainly screened by a gradual regression method.
However, both of the above methods have disadvantages: for the deterministic method, the reservoir energy storage amount corresponding to the water storage level at the end of the year is usually calculated statically, and if the reservoir energy storage amount is divided by the corresponding power generation water consumption rate, the energy can be given full play in the future scheduling, and whether the energy is in line with the reality or not has a greater question; in the hidden random optimization method, the stepwise regression method lacks mechanism support due to the complexity of the scheduling process and the nonlinear effect. Therefore, a more rational and simple method is always the goal pursued.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects of the methods, the invention provides a novel method for combining the theories of the two methods. The invention aims to provide a method for determining an optimal storage level for regulating the year end of a reservoir for many years.
The technical scheme is as follows: a method for determining an optimal year-end water storage level of a multi-year regulation reservoir mainly comprises the following steps:
first, dispersion of reservoir storage state (water level or reservoir capacity):
dispersing the water storage state (water level or storage capacity) under the condition of normal operation of the reservoir according to the precision requirement;
secondly, calculating the expected annual average power generation amount in each water storage state at the end of the year:
taking the corresponding water level of a certain water storage state in the first step as the initial water level of the reservoir, applying long series warehousing runoff data of the reservoir, adopting a reservoir scheduling rule to carry out reservoir scheduling calculation year by year to obtain the power generation amount of each year, and further calculating the average power generation amount of many years to be used as the expected annual average power generation amount in the state; the same calculation is carried out on all the dispersed reservoir water storage states to obtain the expected annual average power generation amount of each reservoir water storage state;
thirdly, determining the optimal power generation amount in the current year:
under the condition that the initial water level (current water level) of the faced time interval is known and the warehousing flow of each time interval from the faced time interval to the end of the year is obtained by prediction or prediction, the optimal power generation amount of the year is calculated by applying an optimization algorithm to the water storage state at the end of each year;
fourthly, determining the optimal water storage level at the end of the year:
and calculating the sum of the annual optimal power generation capacity and the expected annual average power generation capacity of each year-end water storage state as the total power generation capacity, wherein the water level corresponding to the year-end water storage state corresponding to the maximum total power generation value is the annual optimal year-end water storage level.
Preferably, the number of the discrete points in the reservoir water storage state is controllable, and the characteristic of randomly adjusting the number of the discrete points according to the precision requirement is provided.
Preferably, the optimization algorithm is a dynamic programming algorithm with characteristics of obtaining a globally optimal solution with corresponding precision and an improved algorithm thereof.
Preferably, the optimization algorithm is an evolutionary algorithm such as a genetic algorithm and a particle swarm algorithm which have the characteristic of rapidly obtaining an approximate global optimal solution.
Preferably, the expected annual average power generation of the water level at the end of each year can be represented by the average value of annual average power generation taking the year as a calculation period by replacing the future water supply process with the historical long series warehousing runoff data.
Preferably, the reservoir dispatching rule is a conventional dispatching diagram dispatching method with the common application characteristic of each reservoir.
Preferably, the reservoir dispatching rule is an optimization function dispatching method with the optimization characteristics of all the reservoirs on the basis of optimization dispatching research.
Preferably, the reservoir dispatching rule is a guaranteed output mode dispatching method which is convenient for calculating the hydropower station power generation guarantee rate.
Preferably, the reservoir dispatching rule is a normal water supply mode dispatching method with the characteristic of being convenient for calculating the guarantee rate of normal water supply of the hydropower station.
The method of the invention has the following remarkable characteristics:
1. the discrete parts of the reservoir water storage state can be determined according to actual needs or precision requirements, and the controllability is strong.
2. The expected annual average generating capacity of the reservoir in the water storage state interval at the end of each year is calculated year by applying long series runoff data, and the possible future generating benefit of the state interval can be well reflected.
3. The invention provides a theoretical framework: the reservoir dispatching rule can adopt a conventional dispatching graph method, a dispatching function method, an equal output dispatching method or an equal flow dispatching method and the like; the optimization calculation from the current time interval to the end of the year can be performed by using traditional optimization methods such as a dynamic programming method, a discrete differential dynamic programming method and the like or modern intelligent algorithms such as a genetic algorithm, a particle swarm algorithm and the like. Easy to understand and implement.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram illustrating the variation of the water storage state (water level) of a reservoir;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of calculation of annual average generated energy in a water storage state (water level) of an initial reservoir of a certain year;
fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of reservoir optimization scheduling in the current year.
Detailed Description
The invention mainly comprises two parts: firstly, calculating the expected annual average power generation amount in each water storage state at the end of the year; the actual measurement year warehousing runoff data of the reservoir is assumed to be an independent random sequence, the year-end water storage state is taken as the water storage state at the beginning of the year, the year-by-year scheduling calculation is carried out on each year-beginning state by using a reservoir power generation scheduling rule, the average power generation amount of each year is obtained through statistics, the average value of the year-average power generation amount is taken as the expected year-average power generation amount corresponding to the year-beginning water storage state, and the expected year-average power generation amount of each water storage state at the end of the corresponding year is obtained. And secondly, determining the optimal power generation amount in the current year. Under the condition that the current water level is known and the warehousing flow rate of each time interval from the time interval to the end of the year is known through prediction or prediction, the optimal power generation amount of the year is calculated for each water storage state at the end of the year by applying optimization algorithms such as dynamic programming and the like; and thirdly, determining the optimal water storage level at the end of the year. And calculating the sum of the annual power generation capacity and the expected annual average power generation capacity of each water storage state at the end of the year to serve as the total power generation capacity, wherein the water level corresponding to the annual end water storage state of the reservoir corresponding to the maximum total power generation capacity value is the required optimal annual end water storage level.
The calculation steps of the invention comprise the following steps:
1) dispersion of reservoir storage state (water level or storage capacity)
For the convenience of numerical operation, the water storage state (water level or reservoir capacity) of the reservoir must be discretized into several compartments as shown in fig. 1. Taking a water level discrete interval delta Z as a unit, and dispersing the water level discrete interval delta Z into m states from a dead water level Zs to a normal high water level Zz, wherein the lower boundary state value is Zs, and the corresponding value domain is less than or equal to Zs and indicates that the water level is at or below the dead water level. Similarly, the upper boundary state value is Zz, and the corresponding numerical value domain is greater than or equal to the normal high water level, which indicates that the water level is at or above the normal high water level, and the water abandon should be considered to maintain the reservoir in the full storage state. The expressions for all the state value fields are shown in table 1.
TABLE 1 State values and numerical field calculations thereof
| State number i | 1 | 1＜i＜m | m |
| State value Z | Zs | Zs+(2i-3)·ΔZ/2 | Zz |
| Numerical field of states | X(1)≤Zs | (i-2)ΔZ+Zs＜x(i)＜(i-1)ΔZ+Zs | X(m)≥Zz |
2) Calculation of expected annual average power generation
Taking the certain state value obtained in the step 1) as the initial water level of the reservoir, applying years of historical actual measurement year-to-year storage runoff data of the reservoir, adopting reservoir scheduling rules (such as conventional scheduling) to perform year-by-year reservoir scheduling calculation to obtain the power generation amount of each year, and further calculating the average power generation amount of each year as shown in a figure 2 to be used as the expected year-by-year power generation amount in the state. And performing the same calculation on all the dispersed reservoir water storage states to obtain the expected annual average power generation amount of each reservoir water storage state.
3) Calculation of the optimal power generation amount in the same year
Under the condition that the initial water level (current water level) of the faced time interval is known and the warehousing flow of each faced time interval to the end of the year is obtained through prediction or prediction, the optimal power generation amount of the year is calculated by applying optimization algorithms such as dynamic programming and the like to each water storage state at the end of the year, as shown in fig. 3.
4) Determination of optimal end-of-year water storage level
And calculating the optimal power generation amount from the facing time interval to the end of the year for each year-end water storage state of the reservoir, and adding the optimal power generation amount to the expected annual average power generation amount in the water storage state to obtain a total power generation amount value. And adjusting the optimal year end water storage level of the reservoir in the year for the year corresponding to the year end water storage state corresponding to the maximum total power generation value.
Claims (5)
1. A method for determining an optimal year-end water storage level of a multi-year regulation reservoir mainly comprises the following steps:
first, dispersion of reservoir water storage state:
dispersing the water storage state under the normal operation condition of the reservoir according to the precision requirement, wherein the water storage state of the reservoir refers to the water level or the reservoir capacity of the reservoir;
secondly, calculating the expected annual average power generation amount in each water storage state at the end of the year:
respectively taking the water level corresponding to each water storage state after dispersion in the first step as the initial water level of the reservoir, applying long series warehousing runoff data of the reservoir, and adopting a reservoir scheduling rule to carry out year-by-year reservoir scheduling calculation to be used as the expected annual average power generation amount under the initial water level of the reservoir corresponding to the water storage state; the water levels corresponding to all the dispersed reservoir water storage states are calculated in the same way, and the expected annual average power generation amount under the water levels corresponding to all the reservoir water storage states is obtained;
thirdly, determining the optimal power generation amount in the current year:
under the condition that the initial water level of the faced time interval is known and the warehousing flow of the faced time interval to each time interval at the end of the year is obtained through prediction or prediction, the optimal power generation amount of the year is calculated by applying an optimization algorithm to the water storage state at the end of each year;
fourthly, determining the optimal water storage level at the end of the year:
calculating the sum of the annual optimal power generation capacity and the expected annual average power generation capacity of each year-end water storage state as the total power generation capacity, wherein the water level corresponding to the annual-end water storage state corresponding to the maximum total power generation value is the annual optimal annual-end water storage level;
the quantity of the discrete points in the reservoir water storage state is controllable, and the quantity of the discrete points can be adjusted randomly according to the precision requirement;
the optimization algorithm adopts a dynamic programming and improved algorithm with the characteristic of obtaining a global optimal solution; or, the optimization algorithm is a genetic algorithm and a particle swarm algorithm evolutionary algorithm which have the characteristic of rapidly obtaining an approximate global optimal solution;
the reservoir dispatching rule is a conventional dispatching diagram dispatching method with the common application characteristic of each reservoir.
2. The method of claim 1 for determining an optimal year end storage level of a multi-year regulated reservoir, wherein: the expected annual average power generation of the water level at the end of each year can be represented by the average value of annual average power generation taking the year as a calculation period by replacing the future water supply process with historical long series warehousing runoff data.
3. The method of claim 1 for determining an optimal year end storage level of a multi-year regulated reservoir, wherein: the reservoir dispatching rule can also be a dispatching function dispatching method for obtaining optimized characteristics of each reservoir on the basis of optimized dispatching research.
4. The method of claim 1 for determining an optimal year end storage level of a multi-year regulated reservoir, wherein: the reservoir dispatching rule can also be a guaranteed output mode dispatching method which is convenient for calculating the hydropower station power generation guarantee rate.
5. The method of claim 1 for determining an optimal year end storage level of a multi-year regulated reservoir, wherein: the reservoir dispatching rule can also be a normal water supply mode dispatching method with the characteristic of conveniently calculating the guarantee rate of normal water supply of the hydropower station.
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