CN105631771A - Variable weight function-based multi-parameter cable state evaluation method - Google Patents
Variable weight function-based multi-parameter cable state evaluation method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a variable weight function-based multi-parameter cable state evaluation method. The method comprises steps: a cable state evaluation index set is built; a judgment matrix A is built; normalization processing is carried out on evaluation indexes; a comment set for fuzzy evaluation is built; a membership function corresponding to the evaluation state is set, and a fuzzy judgment matrix R is obtained; an evaluation index variable weight vector W is built; a local variable weight function S is built; and a high-voltage crosslinked cable line comprehensive state evaluation model is built for evaluating the cable state. According to the method of the invention, the index weight changes along with changes of the index value, the problem that the constant weight evaluation method can not present influences on an evaluation target by deterioration of a small weight value state amount can be effectively solved, and the evaluation result is more in line with the actual production and operation state of the cable and even the power grid equipment state.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to electrical equipment fault Detection and diagnosis technical field, in particular to a kind of cable method for evaluating state.
Background technology
Along with Economic development, electrical network load is growing, by the restriction of the factor such as line corridor and electromagnetic environment, the requirement of reliability of should powering and urban beautification, power cable is as the important equipment in urban distribution network, tempo is extremely fast, the cable fault accompanied with development also increases sharply, the development of economic society is brought tremendous influence, cable line leads to working gangway, wear pipe, the mode such as directly bury is laid in underground, in daily running maintenance, it is difficult to directly be maked an inspection tour by visual inspection etc., measure, its running status is difficult to Inspect and control, therefore strengthen cable line monitoring running state and evaluation technique are carried out systematic study, the parameters of comprehensive analysis and characterization cable running status, multiparameter cable line evaluation method based on scientific approach is proposed, set up cable state evaluation model, for accurately grasping cable running status, find latent defect and all kinds of external hidden danger early, avoid the generation of cable fault, guarantee that security of system steady running has important practical significance.
From the general status of domestic and international cable state evaluation research, although cable state evaluation has some investigation and application at home and abroad, but with transformer, the grid equipments such as switch compare research less, lack comprehensively for the parameter characterizing cable running status at present, systematic Study, analyze from some cable faults in recent year, except the quality of cable body, load electric current, outside the environmental factors of temperature and cable gallery, extraneous electrical network factor is such as mains by harmonics, single-phase fault reclosing modes etc. are also very big on the impact of cable running status, can not be ignored when carrying out state evaluation.
At present that the determination technique study of index weight in cable state evaluation is less, model is often weighed in the many employings of each state parameter, but the actual motion state of high-pressure cross-linking cable circuit obviously has " wooden barrel character ", the i.e. abundant few water of wooden barrel energy, do not depend on the mean length of all planks, but depend on that the shortest block plank. When the very high situation of certain project degradation occurs in cable, namely its integrated operation state also may reach severe conditions. Such as, value in extremely indivedual index weight relatively event (being assumed to be the fire risk coefficient of passage) reaches " severe conditions " value, and big multi objective is also in good order and condition, the result evaluating cable by normal power comprehensive evaluation theory is still provide " well " or " health " state evaluation result, but now cable gallery is once presence of fire, consequence is very serious, and evaluation result now just obviously can be runed counter to reality and work on the spot experience. Therefore, in cable line state comprehensive evaluation, in addition it is also necessary to " wooden barrel character " that the equipment oneself state of considering has, state evaluation index is often weighed weight results and makes change power correction.
Summary of the invention
It is an object of the invention to provide a kind of multiparameter cable method for evaluating state based on variable weight function, to solve in current cable evaluation method deterioration that normal power evaluation model can not embody little weighted value quantity of state to the impact of evaluation objective so that the problem of the unreasonable distribution of weight coefficient. The present invention by introducing change power method on the basis of the fuzzy hierarchy analytical method of routine, by research variable weight vector, structure local variable weight function, determine the parameter of variable weight function, realize index weight to change with the change of index amount, the extreme deterioration of the especially sensitive little weight index of reflection is on the impact of overall evaluation result, thus realizes objective, scientific evaluation to cable state.
In order to realize above-mentioned purpose, the present invention adopts following technical scheme:
Based on a multiparameter cable method for evaluating state for variable weight function, comprise the following steps:
(1) cable state evaluation index collection { P is built1,P2,��,Pn;
(2) development of judgment matrix A;
(3) evaluation index is normalized;
(4) the Comment gathers V={V of fuzzy evaluation is set up1,V2,V3,V4;
(5) set the corresponding membership function of evaluation state, draw fuzzy matrix for assessment R;
(6) evaluation index variable weight vector W is constructed;
(7) structure local variable weight function S;
(8) set up high-pressure cross-linking cable circuit comprehensive state evaluation model cable state to be evaluated.
Further, P in step (1)iRepresent evaluation index, i=1,2,3 ... n, n are index sum, n=20; Evaluation indice comprises: run the time limit, failure record, defect record, major insulation resistance, ac voltage withstanding, oversheath volts DS, shelf depreciation, load electric current, cable surface temperature, temperature of cable junction, grounding current, shelf depreciation, temperature, humidity, water level, gas content, well lid state, fire risk, single-phase fault processing mode and mains by harmonics.
Further, judgment matrix A is:
Wherein, aijIt is the importance ratio of i-th evaluation index and jth evaluation index;
aijFor value adopt following table:
| Scale | aijExplanation | aij |
| 1 | Represent PiWith PjImportant relatively on an equal basis | 1 |
| 3 | Represent PiCompare PjImportant a little | 1/3 |
| 5 | Represent PiCompare PjObviously important | 1/5 |
| 7 | Represent PiCompare PjExtremely important | 1/7 |
| 9 | Represent PiCompare PjDefinitely important | 1/9 |
| 2��4��6��8 | Represent that important degree is between two numbers |
Use the proportion quotiety method of 1-9 to calculate weight vectors, obtain the normal weight vector W of each index0��
Further, adopt following table evaluation index to be normalized:
Further, V={V in step (4)1,V2,V3,V4}={ " severe conditions ", " error state (ERST) ", " attention state ", " standard state " }.
Further, step (5) specifically comprises:
The membership function of cable evaluation state " severe conditions ", " error state (ERST) ", " attention state " and " standard state " is respectively:
Wherein, x is the score value drawn after evaluation index carries out nondimensionalization in step (3); (v1,v2,v3,v4,v5) for equipment four kinds evaluate state classification threshold value, v1,v2,v3,v4,v5Value be respectively 0,0.4,0.7,0.9,1; c1, c2, c3, c4It is evaluation interval (v respectively1,v2), (v2,v3), (v3,v4), (v4,v5) mid point; Calculated the degree of being subordinate to of each evaluation index by membership function, the degree of being subordinate to of each evaluation index comprises (��1(x), ��2(x), ��3(x), ��4(x));
Draw fuzzy matrix for assessment:
Wherein Ri={ ri1,ri2,ri3,ri4Be i-th evaluation index single factor test fuzzy judge vector, i.e. the degree of being subordinate to of this index;
By fuzzy for whole single factor test judge vector combination, constitute the fuzzy matrix for assessment R for full factor of evaluation.
Further, step (6) specifically comprises:
Structure evaluation index variable weight vector,
Wherein, j=1,2,3 ... .n, n is total number of evaluation index;
W0The normal weight vector of evaluation index,
W (X)-evaluation index variable weight vector,
S (X)-state variable weight vector.
Further, step (7) specifically comprises:
Structure local variable weight function:
Wherein, ��=0.3, ��=0.4, ��=0.7, ��=0.9, C=0.4, c11=0.5, c21=0.8.
Further, step (8) voltage of middle-high pressure crosslinking cable circuit comprehensive state evaluation model is:
B=W R=(b1,b2,b3,b4)
B is variable synthesis evaluation of estimate.
Further, b1,b2,b3,b4In which numerical value maximum, corresponding judge that cable is as " severe conditions ", " error state (ERST) ", " attention state " or " standard state ".
Relative to prior art, the present invention has following useful effect: front 5 steps of the present invention are the standard step of fuzzy hierarchy analytical method, step (6)-(8), introduces variable weight function, it is achieved based on the cable state evaluation of variable weight function; The present invention, when building factor of evaluation collection, considers mains by harmonics and single-phase fault processing mode first on the impact of cable running status, obtains normal weight vector W in employing fuzzy hierarchy analytical method0After fuzzy matrix R, build variable weight vector W, local variable weight function S (xj), and determine S (x by calculatingj) key parameter, finally set up cable variable synthesis state evaluation model. The inventive method achieves index weight to change with the change of desired value, effectively make up the problem deteriorating the impact on evaluation objective that normal power evaluation method can not embody little weighted value quantity of state, it is the production run virtual condition that evaluation result accords with cable and even grid equipment state more.
1, when setting up factor of evaluation collection, consider mains by harmonics and single-phase fault processing mode first to the impact of cable running status, the state evaluation of cable is produced reality more.
2, construct local variable weight vector, it is determined that key parameter, make variable weight function punishment amplitude be far longer than excitation amplitude, reflect emphatically that the extreme deterioration of little weight index is on the impact of overall evaluation result.
3, by introducing variable weight function on the basis of fuzzy hierarchy analytical method, compensate for the deficiency of conventional fuzzy hierarchy analytical method.
4, with the use of the fuzzy hierarchy analytical method based on variable weight function, actual motion cable being carried out state evaluation analysis, more often power method is more objective for evaluation result, it is possible to method is applied to other grid equipments.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the factor of evaluation collection of the present invention;
Fig. 2 is Membership Function Distribution figure;
Fig. 3 is punishment-excitation type state variable weight function curve;
Fig. 4 is punishment-excitation type state variable weight function curve that the present invention determines parameter;
The variable synthesis that Fig. 5 is the inventive method evaluates overall flow figure.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with embodiment, the present invention is described in detail.
Referring to shown in Fig. 1 to Fig. 5, a kind of multiparameter cable method for evaluating state based on variable weight function of the present invention, comprises the following steps:
(1) cable state evaluation index collection { P is built1,P2,��,Pn, considering mains by harmonics and single-phase fault processing mode first to the impact of cable running status, evaluation indice is shown in Fig. 1. Cable state evaluation index collection comprises: running the time limit, failure record, defect record, major insulation resistance, ac voltage withstanding, oversheath volts DS, shelf depreciation, load electric current, cable surface temperature, temperature of cable junction, grounding current, shelf depreciation, temperature, humidity, water level, gas content, well lid state, fire risk, single-phase fault processing mode and mains by harmonics, index expression is Pi, i=1,2,3 ... n, n are index sum, n=20.
(2) development of judgment matrix A:
Wherein, aijIt is importance ratio (table 1) of i-th evaluation index and jth evaluation index; And the proportion quotiety method using 1-9 calculates weight vectors, obtains the normal weight vector W of each index0; A lower attached normal weight vector W0Example, in normal weight vector all vector sum be 1:
The implication of table 1 analytical hierarchy process 1-9 scale
| Scale | aijExplanation | aij |
| 1 | Represent PiWith PjImportant relatively on an equal basis | 1 |
| 3 | Represent PiCompare PjImportant a little | 1/3 |
| 5 | Represent PiCompare PjObviously important | 1/5 |
| 7 | Represent PiCompare PjExtremely important | 1/7 7 --> |
| 9 | Represent PiCompare PjDefinitely important | 1/9 |
| 2��4��6��8 | Represent that important degree is between two numbers |
(3) desired value being normalized classification: evaluation index is divided into quantitative target and qualitative index, quantitative target is divided into again large index (the more big cable state of numerical value is more good), minimum type index (the more little cable state of numerical value is more good), osculant index (oxygen content in air content). Adopt half trapezoidal function and trapezoidal function that all evaluation indexes are carried out nondimensionalization process, wherein, large index (the more big cable state of numerical value is more good) adopts and rises half trapezoidal function, minimum type index (the more little cable state of numerical value is more good) adopts lower semi-trapezoid function, and osculant index (oxygen content in air content) adopts trapezoidal function. The type of each evaluation index and judgment mode are such as table 2:
Table 2 cable pointer type and judgment mode
(4) to division four grades of equipment index factor state grade in foundation State Grid Corporation of China promulgates " cable line state evaluation is led then " (Q/GDW456-2010), the Comment gathers setting up fuzzy evaluation is as follows:
V={V1,V2,V3,V4}={ " severe conditions ", " error state (ERST) ", " attention state ", " standard state " }
(5) consider that the zone iimit of adjacent state should have certain common factor, so the present invention has selected trapezoidal with half trapezoidal membership function comparatively intuitively, then cable evaluate state " severe conditions ", " error state (ERST) ", " attention state " and " standard state " membership function be respectively:
Wherein, x is the score value drawn after evaluation index carries out nondimensionalization in step (3); (v1,v2,v3,v4,v5) for equipment four kinds evaluate state classification threshold value, v1,v2,v3,v4,v5Value be respectively 0,0.4,0.7,0.9,1; c1, c2, c3, c4It is evaluation interval (v respectively1,v2), (v2,v3), (v3,v4), (v4,v5) mid point. Calculated the degree of being subordinate to of each evaluation index by membership function, the degree of being subordinate to of each evaluation index comprises (��1(x), ��2(x), ��3(x), ��4(x));
Draw fuzzy matrix for assessment:
Wherein Ri={ ri1,ri2,ri3,ri4Be i-th evaluation index single factor test fuzzy judge vector, i.e. the degree of being subordinate to of this index, obtain namely according to by fuzzy for whole single factor test judges vector combine, namely constitute the fuzzy matrix for assessment R for full factor of evaluation. How to obtain: actual is exactly that the degree of being subordinate to of 20 indexs is calculated, and puts together.
(6) evaluation index variable weight vector is constructed,
Wherein, j=1,2,3 ... .n, n is total number of evaluation index;
W0The normal weight vector of-evaluation index,
W (X)-evaluation index variable weight vector,
S (X)-state variable weight vector
By upper formula it will be seen that variable weight vector is normal weight vector W0With state variable weight vector S (X) (normalization method) Hardarmard product. The product of the two correspondence position (the Hardarmard product be defined as)
(7) structure local variable weight function, function curve is shown in Fig. 3.
In order to reflect " the wooden barrel character " of cable line, strengthen the relative sensitivity that height is deteriorated index item reaction, for the weight that the poor factor that is evaluated is in addition stronger, in variable synthesis evaluation, punishment dynamics arranges and should be greater than excitation dynamics, and it is as follows that variable synthesis evaluates respective explanations:
(1) sub-goal evaluates PiEvaluation of estimate xj�� (0,1), stimulation level �� are near 1, and namely excited target interval (��, 1) is narrower, and the state value in this interval is subject to strong excitation and changes rapidly;
(2) punishing that level and stimulation level are very near, namely qualified district (��, ��) is very narrow, and this interval state value can not be subject to excitation punishment;
(3) by punishment interval (0, ��) wider, the just punishment stage (�� can be divided into, ��), punish the stage by force (��, ��], spy punish the stage by force (0, ��] 3 stages, the punishment that wherein index item was subject in the first punishment stage is very weak, the punishment that the strong punishment stage is subject to is comparatively strong, and punishes that by force the stage increases rapidly to being worth weighted value shared by too low sub-goal item spy so that the comprehensive evaluation value of the overall state of cable line sharply declines. According to cable line variable synthesis state evaluation feature, the first punishment stage can be set as para-curve, the strong punishment stage is straight line, special strong punishment stage and excitation phase are logarithmic curve, and the straight line in strong punishment stage and spy punish that by force the curve in stage is tangential on point (��, ��) and (��, b).
Considering high-pressure cross-linking cable circuit device characteristics, function punishment amplitude need to be established to be far longer than excitation range parameter, by repeatedly calculating, each parameter value of function is taken as ��=0.3, ��=0.4, ��=0.7, ��=0.9, C=0.4, c respectively11=0.5, c21=0.8, function curve now is shown in Fig. 4.
(8) high-pressure cross-linking cable circuit comprehensive state evaluation model is set up:
B=W R=(b1,b2,b3,b4)
B is variable synthesis evaluation of estimate; Be exactly each index variable weight vector with degree of being subordinate to be multiplied, then all often row be added obtain, b1,b2,b3,b4In which numerical value maximum, corresponding judge that cable is as " severe conditions ", " error state (ERST) ", " attention state " and " standard state ". During variable synthesis is evaluated, state variable weight function S (X), by producing corresponding variation for the change of each factor index, thus drives each factor weight also to change thereupon, finally causes the variation of comprehensive evaluation result.
Claims (10)
1. the multiparameter cable method for evaluating state based on variable weight function, it is characterised in that, comprise the following steps:
(1) cable state evaluation index collection { P is built1,P2,��,Pn;
(2) development of judgment matrix A;
(3) evaluation index is normalized;
(4) the Comment gathers V={V of fuzzy evaluation is set up1,V2,V3,V4;
(5) set the corresponding membership function of evaluation state, draw fuzzy matrix for assessment R;
(6) evaluation index variable weight vector W is constructed;
(7) structure local variable weight function S;
(8) set up high-pressure cross-linking cable circuit comprehensive state evaluation model cable state to be evaluated.
2. a kind of multiparameter cable method for evaluating state based on variable weight function according to claim 1, it is characterised in that, P in step (1)iRepresent evaluation index, i=1,2,3 ... n, n are index sum, n=20; Evaluation indice comprises: run the time limit, failure record, defect record, major insulation resistance, ac voltage withstanding, oversheath volts DS, shelf depreciation, load electric current, cable surface temperature, temperature of cable junction, grounding current, shelf depreciation, temperature, humidity, water level, gas content, well lid state, fire risk, single-phase fault processing mode and mains by harmonics.
3. a kind of multiparameter cable method for evaluating state based on variable weight function according to claim 2, it is characterised in that, judgment matrix A is:
Wherein, aijIt is the importance ratio of i-th evaluation index and jth evaluation index;
aijFor value adopt following table:
Use the proportion quotiety method of 1-9 to calculate weight vectors, obtain the normal weight vector W of each index0��
4. a kind of multiparameter cable method for evaluating state based on variable weight function according to claim 3, it is characterised in that, adopt following table evaluation index to be normalized:
5. a kind of multiparameter cable method for evaluating state based on variable weight function according to claim 4, it is characterised in that, V={V in step (4)1,V2,V3,V4}={ " severe conditions ", " error state (ERST) ", " attention state ", " standard state " }.
6. a kind of multiparameter cable method for evaluating state based on variable weight function according to claim 5, it is characterised in that, step (5) specifically comprises:
The membership function of cable evaluation state " severe conditions ", " error state (ERST) ", " attention state " and " standard state " is respectively:
Wherein, x is the score value drawn after evaluation index carries out nondimensionalization in step (3); (v1,v2,v3,v4,v5) for equipment four kinds evaluate state classification threshold value, v1,v2,v3,v4,v5Value be respectively 0,0.4,0.7,0.9,1; c1, c2, c3, c4It is evaluation interval (v respectively1,v2), (v2,v3), (v3,v4), (v4,v5) mid point; Calculated the degree of being subordinate to of each evaluation index by membership function, the degree of being subordinate to of each evaluation index comprises (��1(x), ��2(x), ��3(x), ��4(x));
Draw fuzzy matrix for assessment:
Wherein Ri={ ri1,ri2,ri3,ri4} is the fuzzy judge vector of the single factor test of i-th evaluation index, i.e. the degree of being subordinate to of this index; By fuzzy for whole single factor test judge vector combination, constitute the fuzzy matrix for assessment R for full factor of evaluation.
7. a kind of multiparameter cable method for evaluating state based on variable weight function according to claim 6, it is characterised in that, step (6) specifically comprises:
Structure evaluation index variable weight vector,
Wherein, j=1,2,3 ... .n, n is total number of evaluation index;
W0The normal weight vector of-evaluation index,
W (X)-evaluation index variable weight vector,
S (X)-state variable weight vector.
8. a kind of multiparameter cable method for evaluating state based on variable weight function according to claim 7, it is characterised in that, step (7) specifically comprises:
Structure local variable weight function:
Wherein, ��=0.3, ��=0.4, ��=0.7, ��=0.9, C=0.4, c11=0.5, c21=0.8.
9. a kind of multiparameter cable method for evaluating state based on variable weight function according to claim 8, it is characterised in that, step (8) voltage of middle-high pressure crosslinking cable circuit comprehensive state evaluation model is:
B=W R=(b1,b2,b3,b4)
B is variable synthesis evaluation of estimate.
10. a kind of multiparameter cable method for evaluating state based on variable weight function according to claim 9, it is characterised in that, b1,b2,b3,b4In which numerical value maximum, corresponding judge that cable is as " severe conditions ", " error state (ERST) ", " attention state " or " standard state ".
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2016
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