CN105550944B - Method for determining guaranteed output and annual average generated energy of perennial regulation reservoir - Google Patents
Method for determining guaranteed output and annual average generated energy of perennial regulation reservoir Download PDFInfo
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- CN105550944B CN105550944B CN201610039999.XA CN201610039999A CN105550944B CN 105550944 B CN105550944 B CN 105550944B CN 201610039999 A CN201610039999 A CN 201610039999A CN 105550944 B CN105550944 B CN 105550944B
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for determining the guaranteed output and the annual average generated energy of a perennial regulation reservoir, which comprises the following steps of firstly, dispersing the water storage state under the normal operation condition of the reservoir according to the precision requirement; secondly, assuming a certain output, calculating by taking the water levels corresponding to the state values of different water storage states as initial water levels and taking years as calculation periods, and counting the probability of each water storage interval of the annual average power generation amount and the annual terminal water level to obtain a reservoir water storage state probability transfer matrix and calculating the stable water storage probability of the reservoir; thirdly, calculating the expected power generation guarantee rate and the expected annual average generated energy of the hydropower station; comparing whether the expected guarantee rate meets the precision requirement of the design guarantee rate, and if so, obtaining the guaranteed output and the annual average generated energy; if the measured value does not meet the requirement, returning to the second step, the method for regulating the output and the annual average power generation of the reservoir for many years, which is determined by the invention, creates a calculation method combining deterministic simulation and random statistics, and has clear concept and comprehensive consideration.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of reservoir planning and scheduling, and particularly relates to a method for determining the guaranteed output and the annual average generated energy of a multi-year-adjusted reservoir.
Background
The determination of the guaranteed output and the annual average generated energy of the reservoir regulated for many years is a very complicated problem, and is the key to whether river water energy resources and hydro-junction engineering can be fully utilized or not. The purpose of regulating the reservoir for many years is to store the excess water of the full water year in the reservoir so as to supplement the insufficient water of the dry water year. Therefore, the regulation of the operation of the reservoir for many years not only affects the current year, but also affects a plurality of years later, and the key of the full utilization of the water energy resource is how to scientifically and reasonably determine the guaranteed output of the reservoir and the average generating capacity for many years, so that the generating benefit of the hydropower station reaches the optimal value. The method has great influence on the operation of the reservoir, the reservoir group connected with water conservancy, electric power and the like, particularly the step reservoir group using the multi-year regulating reservoir as a leading head. Unfortunately, the current research on this problem is not deep enough, and as a summary, there are two main approaches:
1. design of period of representation
Selecting a design representative period (generally a continuous dry year group) in long series of data according to a design representative period selection method, then taking a normal water storage level of a reservoir as an initial water level, taking a dead water level as a final water level, and applying an equal-output method to sequentially calculate the output of each time period in the representative period, so that the output value when the final water level just reaches the dead water level is the guaranteed output.
2. Long series process
According to the long series runoff data of the reservoir, the equal output regulation calculation is carried out according to a certain output, the guarantee rate of the whole calculation period and the average generated energy of many years are counted, and the output value of which the guarantee rate is just equal to the design guarantee rate is the required guarantee output.
However, both of the above methods have disadvantages: for the design representative period method, because the hydrologic data series is shorter, and the series is shorter when the dry year group is taken as a period, the representativeness of the selected design representative period is insufficient; in the long series method, calculation is carried out according to an equal output adjustment mode, the existing runoff data is fully utilized, certain representativeness is achieved, however, only once output calculation is carried out by the existing runoff series, and the reliability of the obtained result is poor. Therefore, a more reasonable and reliable method is needed to calculate the guaranteed output and the annual average power generation of the multi-year regulated reservoir.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects of the method, the invention provides a new method for combining a deterministic theory and a stochastic theory under the condition of considering the randomness of the runoff and considering the water storage state of the reservoir as much as possible. The invention aims to provide a novel method for determining the guaranteed output and the annual average generated energy of a multi-year regulation reservoir.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows:
a method for determining the guaranteed output and the annual average generated energy of a perennial regulated reservoir mainly comprises the following steps:
firstly, dispersing a water storage state (water level or storage capacity) under the condition of normal operation of a reservoir according to precision requirements;
secondly, assuming that under a certain output, performing multi-year simulated dispatching according to equal output rules by taking the water levels corresponding to state values of different water storage states as initial water levels and taking years as calculation periods, and counting the power generation guarantee rate and multi-year average power generation amount in each water storage state and the probability of each water storage state interval in which the water storage state at the end of the year is located, so as to obtain a probability transfer matrix of the water storage state of the reservoir, and then utilizing the probability transfer matrix to calculate the stable water storage probability of the multi-year regulation reservoir;
calculating expected power generation guarantee rate of the hydropower station by using the stable water storage probability and the power generation guarantee rate in each water storage state, and calculating expected annual average power generation amount of the hydropower station by using the stable water storage probability and the average power generation amount over years in each water storage state;
comparing whether the difference between the expected guarantee rate and the design guarantee rate of the hydropower station meets the precision requirement, if so, determining the assumed output of the second step as the guaranteed output; the expected generating capacity obtained in the fourth step is the annual average generating capacity of the multi-year regulation reservoir; if not, returning to the second step, and re-assuming the force to repeat the calculation.
Preferably, when the state of water storage (water level or storage capacity) in the case of normal operation of the reservoir is dispersed, the lower limit and the upper limit of the state of water storage are considered.
Preferably, the discrete point number of the reservoir water storage state is controllable, and the characteristic of randomly adjusting the discrete point number according to the precision requirement is provided.
Preferably, the reservoir power generation dispatching calculation adopts an equal output method with output stability characteristics.
Preferably, the reservoir water storage state adopts a stable water storage probability method with the multi-year operation statistical characteristic of the reservoir.
Preferably, the reservoir guaranteed output is obtained by an iterative method, wherein the obtained result meets the precision requirement.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
1. the discrete parts of the water storage state (water level or storage capacity) of the reservoir can be determined according to the actual needs or the precision requirements, and the flexibility is strong.
2. The year-end stable water storage probability under the condition of long-term power generation operation of the reservoir regulated for many years is calculated year by applying the long-series runoff data in each water storage state, and the statistical characteristic of simulating the long-term operation environment of the reservoir is achieved.
3. The annual (or monthly or ten-day) expected power generation guarantee rate and annual average generated energy of the reservoir are adjusted by years according to the stable water storage probability at the end of the year under the condition that the reservoir operates for many years, so that the randomness characteristic of the runoff process is better met.
4. The guaranteed output of the multi-year regulation reservoir calculated by the method can reflect the multi-year regulation performance of the hydropower station reservoir, and the obtained result can reflect the characteristic of long-term operation of the reservoir.
5. The annual average generated energy of the initial water storage state of each year obtained by calculation can be used as the annual average generated energy of the corresponding final water storage state of each year, namely the possible future power generation benefit of the reservoir can be adjusted for many years under the state.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram illustrating the variation of the water storage state (water level) of a reservoir;
fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of calculation of annual average generated energy in a water storage state (water level) of a reservoir at the beginning of a certain year.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the attached drawings, and all other embodiments obtained by a person of ordinary skill in the art based on the embodiments of the present invention without any inventive work belong to the protection scope of the present invention.
The invention mainly comprises four parts: firstly, dispersing a water storage state (water level or storage capacity) under the condition of normal operation of a reservoir according to precision requirements; and secondly, assuming that under a certain output, carrying out multi-year simulated dispatching by taking the water levels corresponding to the state values of different water storage states as initial water levels, taking years as calculation periods and according to equal output rules, and counting the power generation guarantee rate and the multi-year average power generation amount in each water storage state and the probability of each water storage interval in which the water level is positioned at the end of the year, thereby obtaining a probability transfer matrix of the water storage state of the reservoir, and then utilizing the probability transfer matrix to calculate the stable water storage probability of the reservoir for many years. And thirdly, calculating the expected power generation guarantee rate of the hydropower station by using the stable water storage probability and the power generation guarantee rate in each water storage state, and calculating the expected annual average power generation amount of the hydropower station by using the stable water storage probability and the average power generation amount over years in each water storage state. Comparing whether the difference between the expected guarantee rate and the design guarantee rate of the hydropower station meets the precision requirement, if so, determining that the assumed output is the guaranteed output, and determining that the expected generated energy obtained in the fourth step is the annual average generated energy of the multi-year regulation reservoir; if not, returning to the second step, and re-assuming the force to repeat the calculation. The method for determining the guaranteed output and the annual average generated energy of the perennial adjustment reservoir, which is determined by the invention, creates a calculation method combining deterministic simulation and stochastic theory, obtains the guaranteed output and the annual average generated energy of the perennial adjustment reservoir with statistical significance, and has clear concept and comprehensive consideration.
The calculation steps of the invention comprise the following steps:
1. dispersion of reservoir storage state (water level or storage capacity)
For the convenience of numerical operation, the water storage state (water level or reservoir capacity) of the reservoir must be discretized into a plurality of sections, and the discretized water level is as shown in fig. 1. Taking a water level discrete interval delta Z as a unit, and taking the water level discrete interval delta Z as a unit from a dead water level ZsTo a normal high water level ZzDiscretizing into m states, wherein the lower boundary state value is ZsWith a corresponding numerical field less than or equal to ZsIt is shown at the dead water level and below. Similarly, the upper bound state value is ZzAnd the corresponding numerical value field is greater than or equal to the normal high water level, which indicates that the water level is at or above the normal high water level, and the water abandoning is considered to maintain the reservoir in a full state. The expressions for all the state value fields are shown in table 1.
TABLE 1 State values and numerical field calculations thereof
| State sequence number I | 1 | 1＜i＜m | m |
| State value S | Zs | Zs+(2i-3)·ΔZ/2 | Zz |
| Numerical field of states | x(1)≤Zs | (i-2)ΔZ+Zs＜x(i)＜(i-1)ΔZ+Zs | x(m)≥Zz |
2. Estimation of annual transfer probability matrix and power generation guarantee probability of reservoir
Taking a certain specified initial year water storage state value S (1) as a starting point, calculating year by year according to measured runoff data of a plurality of years by adopting an equal output scheduling rule, and thereby deducing the water storage change process of each year of the reservoir in the initial year water storage state and the water storage state interval of the reservoir at the end of each year, as shown in figure 2. Then, the annual (or monthly or ten-day) power generation guarantee probability and the annual average power generation amount under the initial water storage state are counted
And the occurrence frequency of the water storage state at the end of each year.
The same calculation statistics as above are performed one by one on the early-year water storage states s (i), i ═ 2 and 3 … … m, so that a year transition probability matrix Q of the water storage states of the reservoir and year (or month and ten day) power generation guarantee probabilities P corresponding to the early-year water storage states can be obtainediAnnual average power generation amount EiThereby obtainingAnd obtaining the power generation guarantee rate P and the annual average power generation amount E vector under all water storage states.
3. Estimation of reservoir stable water storage probability distribution
And (4) applying the solved state transition probability matrix and adopting an iteration method to calculate the stable water storage probability distribution of the reservoir. The specific method comprises the following steps: first, an initial probability pi is assumedtQ, let t equal to 0, then use the probability matrix Q of impoundment, according to pit+1＝ΠtQ is gradually iterated until pit+1＝ΠtQ, obtaining the stable water storage probability distribution pi.
4. Calculation of expected annual average power generation amount and expected power generation guarantee rate
According to the stable water storage probability distribution pi obtained above and the annual average generated energy N of each water storage state discrete interval, the formula E is adoptedN＝∏*ETCalculating expected annual average generated energy for regulating long-term operation of the reservoir for many years; according to the stable water storage probability distribution pi obtained above and the annual (or monthly or ten-day) power generation guarantee probability in each water storage state, the formula P is usedN＝∏*PTAnd calculating the annual (or monthly or ten-day) expected power generation guarantee rate for regulating the long-term operation of the reservoir for many years.
5. Determination of guaranteed output and annual average power generation
Judging whether the difference between the annual (or monthly or ten-day) expected power generation guarantee rate obtained in the step 4 and the set hydropower station power generation guarantee rate meets the precision requirement, if so, determining the assumed output in the second step as the guaranteed output, and determining the expected annual average power generation amount obtained in the fourth step as the annual average power generation amount of the perennial regulation reservoir; if not, the calculation is repeated again assuming the output force returns to the second step.
Claims (6)
1. A method for determining the guaranteed output and the annual average generated energy of a perennial regulated reservoir mainly comprises the following steps:
dispersing a water storage state under the condition of normal operation of a reservoir according to precision requirements, wherein the water storage state comprises a water level or a reservoir capacity;
secondly, assuming that under a certain output, performing multi-year simulated dispatching according to equal output rules by taking the water levels corresponding to state values of different water storage states as initial water levels and taking years as calculation periods, and counting the power generation guarantee rate and multi-year average power generation amount in each water storage state and the probability of each water storage state interval in which the water storage state at the end of the year is located, so as to obtain a probability transfer matrix of the water storage state of the reservoir, and then utilizing the probability transfer matrix to calculate the stable water storage probability of the multi-year regulation reservoir;
calculating expected power generation guarantee rate of the hydropower station by using the stable water storage probability and the power generation guarantee rate in each water storage state, and calculating expected annual average power generation amount of the hydropower station by using the stable water storage probability and the average power generation amount over years in each water level;
comparing whether the difference between the expected power generation guarantee rate and the designed power generation guarantee rate of the hydropower station meets the precision requirement, if so, determining the assumed output of the second step as the guaranteed output; the expected annual average power generation obtained in the third step is the annual average power generation of the multi-year regulation reservoir; if not, returning to the second step, and supposing the output again to repeat the calculation from the second step to the fourth step.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the lower and upper limits of the water storage state are considered when the water storage state of the reservoir is discrete under normal operation conditions.
3. The method for determining the guaranteed output and the annual energy production of the multi-year regulation reservoir of claim 1, wherein the discrete point number of the water storage state is controllable, and the method has the characteristic that the discrete point number can be adjusted freely according to the precision requirement.
4. The method of claim 1, wherein the calculation of the power generation schedule of the reservoir uses an equal-output method with a steady output characteristic.
5. The method of claim 1, wherein the storage status of the reservoir is determined by a probability of stable storage with statistical characteristics of the multi-year operation of the reservoir.
6. The method of claim 1, wherein the guaranteed output of the reservoir is obtained by an iterative method with results meeting accuracy requirements.
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN102682409A (en) * | 2012-05-10 | 2012-09-19 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Optimal scheduling method of nonlinear-programming cascade reservoir group based on GAMS (general algebraic modeling system) |
| CN102855524A (en) * | 2012-08-14 | 2013-01-02 | 贵州乌江水电开发有限责任公司 | Carry-over storage year-end fluctuating level prediction method and system |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN102682409A (en) * | 2012-05-10 | 2012-09-19 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Optimal scheduling method of nonlinear-programming cascade reservoir group based on GAMS (general algebraic modeling system) |
| CN102855524A (en) * | 2012-08-14 | 2013-01-02 | 贵州乌江水电开发有限责任公司 | Carry-over storage year-end fluctuating level prediction method and system |
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| 用状态转移概率矩阵计算水库兴利库容的探讨;张丹林;《新疆大学学报》;19950228;第12卷(第1期);第91-95页 * |
| 综合利用水库兴利调度的二次优化法;王双银;《水力发电学报》;20070630;第26卷(第3期);第11-16页 * |
| 考虑发电风险率的水库优化调度图编制;刘攀;《水力发电学报》;20130930;第32卷(第4期);第252-259页 * |
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