CN105550769A - Dynamic prediction method for residual gas content distribution after coal seam pre-pumping - Google Patents
Dynamic prediction method for residual gas content distribution after coal seam pre-pumping Download PDFInfo
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- CN105550769A CN105550769A CN201510900103.8A CN201510900103A CN105550769A CN 105550769 A CN105550769 A CN 105550769A CN 201510900103 A CN201510900103 A CN 201510900103A CN 105550769 A CN105550769 A CN 105550769A
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
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Abstract
The invention discloses a dynamic prediction method for residual gas content after coal seam pre-drainage, which comprises the following steps: dividing the prediction units according to different pre-extraction methods; determining main prediction indexes of residual gas content of the coal seam in the same prediction unit; establishing a prediction model of the residual gas content of the coal bed by taking the prediction index as an independent variable and taking the residual content of the coal bed as a dependent variable; and dynamically predicting the residual gas content according to the model, and drawing a dynamic prediction graph of residual gas content distribution. The method can realize dynamic prediction of the residual gas content of the coal seam after pre-extraction, can draw the residual gas content distribution map of the coal seam after pre-extraction, realizes dynamic update and visualization of the prediction process and the prediction result, improves the reliability of the prediction result, improves the efficiency of the residual gas content of the coal seam after pre-extraction and the scientificity of decision, is easily and quickly mastered by common engineering technicians of the coal mine, and has low prediction cost.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to field of coal mine safety, particularly relate to a kind of coal seam and take out rear gas remainder quantity distribution dynamic Forecasting Methodology in advance.
Background technology
Coal seam gas-bearing capacity is the amount of gas volume (being scaled standard state) contained in unit mass coal.Gas remainder quantity refers to coal sample remaining gas amount in coal after down-hole desorb a period of time, because its mensuration purposes and each ore deposit condition differ, is difficult to the standard of agreeing.The remaining gas amount mensuration of coal is an important step in gas preventing and control technology, and be the pith of getting working face Forecast of Gas Emission, it directly affects the precision of getting working face Forecast of Gas Emission.In China, remaining gas amount is one of important indicator in coal and gas outburst prominent controlling, is also the important component part of natural gas reserves assessment simultaneously.
Coal seam is after taking out in advance, gas bearing capacity significantly reduces, but owing to finding time in advance, the lack of uniformity of the factor such as original gas bearing and extraction borehole distribution, cause the gas remainder quantity after extraction spatially upper in uneven distribution with the time, so that local gas extraction is not up to standard, has a strong impact on mine safety High-efficient Production.
Down-hole actual measurement gas remainder quantity is the important indicator that inspection coal-bed gas takes out effect in advance, but because borehole throw when down-hole check borehole is constructed is difficult to avoid and the error of method of testing and instrument, Obtaining Accurate to design the true residual gas bearing capacity of check point very difficult.And gas remainder quantity affects very large by length of finding time in advance, be a dynamic value with change of finding time in advance, down-hole measurement method staticly can only obtain current remaining gas amount, can not grasp workplace gas remainder quantity dynamic change situation in time comprehensively.Therefore, realize face of adopting take out in advance rear gas remainder quantity distribution performance prediction tool be of great significance.The research of taking out in advance in the prediction of rear gas remainder quantity distribution dynamic about coal seam is both at home and abroad less, there is no corresponding method of testing.
Summary of the invention
A kind of coal seam is the object of the present invention is to provide to take out rear gas remainder quantity distribution dynamic Forecasting Methodology in advance, the method takes out the major prognostic index of rear gas remainder quantity in advance for affecting coal seam, set up coal seam and take out rear residual content forecast model in advance, can performance prediction coal seam gas remainder quantity, prediction accuracy is high.
Object of the present invention and solve its technical problem underlying and realize by the following technical solutions: rear gas remainder quantity distribution dynamic Forecasting Methodology is taken out in a kind of coal seam in advance, it is characterized in that: comprise the steps:
S1010, division predicting unit: take out method in advance according to difference, divide predicting unit;
S1020, determine major prognostic index: in same predicting unit, determine to affect the leading indicator that the prediction of rear gas remainder quantity is taken out in coal seam in advance;
S1030, set up coal seam gas remainder quantity forecast model: set up with above-mentioned major prognostic index for independent variable, take out with coal seam the forecast model that rear gas remainder quantity is dependent variable in advance;
S1040, performance prediction gas remainder quantity: take out rear gas remainder quantity in advance according to above-mentioned model performance prediction coal seam;
S1050, drafting gas remainder quantity distribution dynamic prognostic chart: take out rear gas remainder quantity and coordinate position drafting gas remainder quantity distribution dynamic prognostic chart in advance according to the coal seam of above-mentioned prediction.
In step S1020, in same predicting unit, the major prognostic index that rear gas remainder quantity is taken out in wherein said coal seam is in advance extraction duration and effective extraction borehole degree of uniformity.
In step S1030, described coal seam is taken out rear gas remainder quantity forecast model in advance and is adopted linear model, exponential model or neural network model.
In step S1030, the foundation of rear gas remainder quantity forecast model is taken out in described coal seam in advance, comprises the steps:
A, choice variable: with described major prognostic index for independent variable, take out rear gas remainder quantity for dependent variable in advance with coal seam;
B, compile major prognostic achievement data: collect the supplemental characteristic relevant with effective extraction borehole degree of uniformity to hole pumping and mining duration;
C, compile coal seam and take out rear gas remainder quantity data in advance: effective gas remainder quantity of surveying in predicting unit takes out rear gas remainder quantity data in advance as coal seam;
Particularly:
Choose forecast model and determine its parameter: choosing a kind of forecast model, solving the parameter of described forecast model with the described major prognostic index compiled and coal seam gas remainder quantity data;
Forecast model efficiency assessment: carry out statistical test to determined model, the validity of judgment models, if this model has invalid, needs to redefine forecast model.
Wherein extraction duration can calculate according to boring time of completion.
Wherein effective extraction borehole degree of uniformity evaluation is as follows:
S2010, division statistic unit: described statistic unit radius should be between effective extraction radius and the shortest these two range indexs of the extraction radius of influence of taking out the phase in advance of boring;
S2020, calculate the ton coal borer hole amount of each statistic unit: according to the above-mentioned Statistical Radius determined, calculate for base map carries out a ton coal borer hole gauge with face gas extraction borehole as-constructed drawing, and the good corresponding coordinate position of record;
S2030, ton coal borer hole, drawing face amount isogram: utilize the Software on Drawing ton coal borer hole amount isograms such as Sufer or MapGIS according to the ton coal borer hole amount of above-mentioned calculating and the coordinate position of correspondence;
Wherein ton coal borer hole amount refers to effective mash gas pumping drilling length of workplace average ton coal.
When wherein utilizing face gas extraction borehole as-constructed drawing to calculate ton coal borer hole amount, consider the impact of seam inclination, first boring as-constructed drawing and horizontal projection are converted to front elevation.
Wherein ton coal borer hole gauge comprises the steps:
Grid division unit: according to above-mentioned statistic unit radius grid division unit on front elevation;
Calculate the mash gas pumping drilling total length in each statistic unit: gas effective extraction borehole length sum is as mash gas pumping drilling total length in statistic unit;
Average ton coal borer hole amount in computing unit: represent with the ratio of mash gas pumping drilling total length and ature of coal amount in statistic unit;
Wherein in statistic unit, ature of coal amount is the product of the unit weight of the thick and coal of cellar area, coal.
Patent of the present invention compared with prior art has obvious advantage and beneficial effect.From above technical scheme, the present invention can realize the performance prediction to taking out rear coal seam gas remainder quantity in advance, and can draw out and take out rear coal seam gas remainder quantity distribution plan in advance, achieve forecasting process and predict the outcome dynamically update with visual, not only increase the reliability predicted the outcome, but also improve and take out the efficiency of rear coal seam gas remainder quantity and the science of decision-making in advance, easily grasped rapidly by colliery general engineering technology personnel, and forecast cost is low.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is that rear gas remainder quantity distribution dynamic prediction steps block diagram is taken out in coal seam of the present invention in advance;
Fig. 2 is boring degree of uniformity evaluation procedure block diagram of the present invention;
Fig. 3 is that rear gas remainder quantity forecast model step block diagram is taken out in coal seam of the present invention in advance.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing and preferred embodiment, rear gas remainder quantity distribution dynamic Forecasting Methodology embodiment, feature and effect thereof are taken out in advance to a kind of coal seam proposed according to patent of the present invention, is described in detail as follows.
Fig. 1 shows coal seam of the present invention and takes out rear gas remainder quantity distribution dynamic prediction steps in advance; First need completing steps S1010, carry out predicting unit division.
In the process dividing predicting unit, should be taken into account the difference reducing the geologic agents such as buried depth, ature of coal, country rock, texture of coal, structure, reduce the difference that original gas reserves produces because of each geologic agent in predicting unit, and will according to difference in advance the method for taking out carry out zoning.
Then, in step S1020, determine to affect the major prognostic index that rear gas remainder quantity is taken out in coal seam in advance.In same unit, affect the unbalanced factor of gas pumping effect and significantly reduce, and effectively the impact of the space factor of extraction borehole distribution and the Spatio-temporal factors of extraction time length shows more direct.
Wherein, extraction duration can calculate according to boring time of completion, and effectively extraction borehole degree of uniformity space distribution is qualitative index, needs further quantitatively evaluating.
After determining major prognostic index, carry out step S1030, set up coal seam and take out rear gas remainder quantity forecast model in advance.
According to selected prediction index, analyze the contribution of each index, adopt multi objective Forecasting Methodology to set up multiple predictors.
Then, in step S1040, use the coal seam set up to take out rear gas remainder quantity forecast model in advance, estimation range gas remainder quantity is predicted.
Finally, in step S1050, according to gas remainder quantity and the respective coordinates position of prediction, draw out gas remainder quantity distribution dynamic prognostic chart.
Fig. 2 shows the step that boring degree of uniformity is evaluated.In order to realize the degree of uniformity evaluation of holing, first carrying out step S2010, dividing statistic unit.Wherein statistic unit radius should be between effective extraction radius and the shortest these two range indexs of the extraction radius of influence of taking out the phase in advance of boring.Meanwhile, the extraction radius of influence is the function of time, and statistic unit radius should be no more than the shortest extraction radius of influence taking out the phase in advance of evaluation unit internal drilling, considers ocurrence of coal seam difference, also should leave more than needed.
After above-mentioned steps S2010 divides statistic unit, carry out step S2020, calculate the ton coal borer hole amount of each statistic unit, that is, in statistic unit, the ratio of mash gas pumping drilling total length and ature of coal amount is that ton coal borer hole is measured.Wherein in statistic unit, ature of coal amount is the product of the unit weight of the thick and coal of cellar area, coal.
In order to the degree of uniformity of analytical work face drilling-draining intuitively, ensuing in step S2030, calculate the ton coal borer hole amount of each statistic unit and corresponding coordinate with above-mentioned steps S2020, utilize the Software on Drawing workplace ton coal borer hole amount isoline such as Sufer or MapGIS.
Fig. 3 shows the step of taking out rear gas remainder quantity distribution dynamic forecast model according to coal seam of the present invention in advance.
For determining that rear gas remainder quantity distribution dynamic forecast model is taken out in coal seam in advance, first perform step S3010, the variable of preference pattern, that is, the major prognostic index described in selection, as independent variable, selects coal seam to take out rear gas remainder quantity in advance as dependent variable.
Then, in step S3020, compile major prognostic achievement data, these data can be obtained by boring as-constructed drawing.
Afterwards, perform step S3030, compile coal seam and take out rear gas remainder quantity data in advance, effective gas remainder quantity of surveying in predicting unit takes out rear gas remainder quantity data in advance as coal seam.
After collection and having prepared above-mentioned data, in step S3040, need to choose forecast model and Confirming model parameter.
In the present embodiment, have chosen power function as forecast model.And take out with the above-mentioned major prognostic index compiled and coal seam the parameter that rear gas remainder quantity data determine described mathematical model in advance.
Forecast model obtained above is not always effective, thus, needs to carry out forecast model efficiency assessment in S3050.
In the present embodiment, in order to assess above-mentioned forecast model validity, statistical test is carried out to determined model.Namely adopt F method of inspection to assess, calculate F statistic with method of analysis of variance, and look into F distribution table under certain level of significance: if above-mentioned F statistic is more than or equal to critical value, so model is effective; Otherwise model is invalid.
The present invention can realize the performance prediction to taking out rear coal seam gas remainder quantity in advance, and can draw out and take out rear coal seam gas remainder quantity distribution plan in advance, achieve forecasting process and predict the outcome dynamically update with visual, not only increase the reliability predicted the outcome, but also improve and take out the efficiency of rear coal seam gas remainder quantity and the science of decision-making in advance, easily grasped rapidly by colliery general engineering technology personnel, and forecast cost is low.
The above, it is only preferred embodiment of the present invention, not any pro forma restriction is done to the present invention, anyly do not depart from technical solution of the present invention content, the any simple modification done above embodiment according to technical spirit of the present invention, equivalent variations and modification, all still belong in the scope of technical solution of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. a rear gas remainder quantity distribution dynamic Forecasting Methodology is taken out in coal seam in advance, it is characterized in that: comprise the steps:
S1010, division predicting unit: take out method in advance according to difference, divide predicting unit;
S1020, determine major prognostic index: in same predicting unit, determine to affect the leading indicator that the prediction of rear gas remainder quantity is taken out in coal seam in advance;
S1030, set up coal seam gas remainder quantity forecast model: set up with above-mentioned major prognostic index for independent variable, take out with coal seam the forecast model that rear gas remainder quantity is dependent variable in advance;
S1040, performance prediction gas remainder quantity: take out rear gas remainder quantity in advance according to above-mentioned model performance prediction coal seam;
S1050, drafting gas remainder quantity distribution dynamic prognostic chart: take out rear gas remainder quantity and coordinate position drafting gas remainder quantity distribution dynamic prognostic chart in advance according to the coal seam of above-mentioned prediction;
In step S1020, in same predicting unit, the major prognostic index that rear gas remainder quantity is taken out in wherein said coal seam is in advance extraction duration and effective extraction borehole degree of uniformity.
2. rear gas remainder quantity distribution dynamic Forecasting Methodology is taken out in a kind of coal seam according to claim 1 in advance, it is characterized in that: in step S1030, described coal seam is taken out rear gas remainder quantity forecast model in advance and is adopted linear model, exponential model or neural network model.
3. rear gas remainder quantity distribution dynamic Forecasting Methodology is taken out in a kind of coal seam according to claim 1 and 2 in advance, it is characterized in that: in step S1030, and the foundation of rear gas remainder quantity forecast model is taken out in described coal seam in advance, comprises the steps:
A, choice variable: with described major prognostic index for independent variable, take out rear gas remainder quantity for dependent variable in advance with coal seam;
B, compile major prognostic achievement data: collect the supplemental characteristic relevant with effective extraction borehole degree of uniformity to hole pumping and mining duration;
C, compile coal seam and take out rear gas remainder quantity data in advance: effective gas remainder quantity of surveying in predicting unit takes out rear gas remainder quantity data in advance as coal seam;
Particularly:
Choose forecast model and determine its parameter: choosing a kind of forecast model, solving the parameter of described forecast model with the described major prognostic index compiled and coal seam gas remainder quantity data;
Forecast model efficiency assessment: carry out statistical test to determined model, the validity of judgment models, if this model has invalid, needs to redefine forecast model.
4. rear gas remainder quantity distribution dynamic Forecasting Methodology is taken out in a kind of coal seam according to claim 3 in advance, it is characterized in that: wherein extraction duration can calculate according to boring time of completion.
5. rear gas remainder quantity distribution dynamic Forecasting Methodology is taken out in a kind of coal seam according to claim 3 in advance, it is characterized in that: wherein effective extraction borehole degree of uniformity evaluation is as follows:
S2010, division statistic unit: described statistic unit radius should be between effective extraction radius and the shortest these two range indexs of the extraction radius of influence of taking out the phase in advance of boring;
S2020, calculate the ton coal borer hole amount of each statistic unit: according to the above-mentioned Statistical Radius determined, calculate for base map carries out a ton coal borer hole gauge with face gas extraction borehole as-constructed drawing, and the good corresponding coordinate position of record;
S2030, ton coal borer hole, drawing face amount isogram: utilize the Software on Drawing ton coal borer hole amount isograms such as Sufer or MapGIS according to the ton coal borer hole amount of above-mentioned calculating and the coordinate position of correspondence;
Wherein ton coal borer hole amount refers to effective mash gas pumping drilling length of workplace average ton coal.
6. rear gas remainder quantity distribution dynamic Forecasting Methodology is taken out in a kind of coal seam according to claim 5 in advance, it is characterized in that: when wherein utilizing face gas extraction borehole as-constructed drawing to calculate ton coal borer hole amount, consider the impact of seam inclination, first boring as-constructed drawing and horizontal projection are converted to front elevation.
7. rear gas remainder quantity distribution dynamic Forecasting Methodology is taken out in a kind of coal seam according to claim 5 or 6 in advance, it is characterized in that: wherein ton coal borer hole gauge comprises the steps:
Grid division unit: according to above-mentioned statistic unit radius grid division unit on front elevation;
Calculate the mash gas pumping drilling total length in each statistic unit: gas effective extraction borehole length sum is as mash gas pumping drilling total length in statistic unit;
Average ton coal borer hole amount in computing unit: represent with the ratio of mash gas pumping drilling total length and ature of coal amount in statistic unit;
Wherein in statistic unit, ature of coal amount is the product of the unit weight of the thick and coal of cellar area, coal.
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