CN105514988B - A kind of micro-capacitance sensor power source planning Scheme Optimum Seeking Methods of meter and dynamic characters - Google Patents
A kind of micro-capacitance sensor power source planning Scheme Optimum Seeking Methods of meter and dynamic characters Download PDFInfo
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- H—ELECTRICITY
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Abstract
The present invention relates to the micro-capacitance sensor power source planning Scheme Optimum Seeking Methods of a kind of energy meter and dynamic characters.Random process model is initially set up to describe the dynamic characters in micro-capacitance sensor power source planning, time-varying parameter is added in economic index based on Real Option Theory, proposes energy prices relative risk index.And a kind of power benefit index is introduced, to describe the complementary benefit of a variety of intermittent power supply cogenerations.Finally, using the economic index of the clear and definite power source planning scheme of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), reliability index, complementary performance indicator, the weight of environmental protection index, overall merit and preferably is made to the power source planning scheme of the micro-capacitance sensor of different space-time characteristics.Planning problem of the present invention for " when the starting micro-capacitance sensor investment project " of independent micro-capacitance sensor, scheme is to micro-capacitance sensor Life cycle economy, reliability, various energy resources cogeneration are complementary, feature of environmental protection influence, so as to carry out evaluation and preferably to micro-capacitance sensor power source planning scheme.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of power source planning Scheme Optimum Seeking Methods, more particularly, to it is a kind of can meter and dynamic characters
Micro-capacitance sensor power source planning Scheme Optimum Seeking Methods.
Background technology
How assessment indicator system is established to the power source planning scheme of micro-capacitance sensor, provide decision-making preferably foundation, turn into one
The problem of there is an urgent need to study.Current a small amount of program evaluation research suitable for micro-capacitance sensor, reliability, warp are mainly given
Ji property, environmentally friendly evaluation index.
But the dynamic characters of investment are all planned in these assessment indicator systems without meter and micro-capacitance sensor.Micro-capacitance sensor is advised
The dynamic characters of investment are drawn, including financial cost is not known caused by the cycle of planned project originates in not the same year
Property feature, while be also included within during the production run of micro-capacitance sensor, because different energy sources form is in the time and geographically natural
With very strong complementary characteristic.
First, if the starting year of the planned project of somewhere micro-capacitance sensor is not when the year before last, but future is delayed
A certain year is developed, due to the Construction of Unit cost and the uncertainty of fuel cost in its economy cost, so as to cause
Economic index dyscalculia, so as to be returned to the problem of " when starting electric generation investment project " in power source planning
Answer.
Further, since different energy sources form is natural in the time and geographically to have a very strong complementarity, it is different types of can
Renewable sources of energy cogeneration, the loss that respective energy intermittence is brought can be made up mutually, improve power network to intermittent renewable
The consumption degree of the energy.When to selection micro-capacitance sensor power source planning scheme, the profit using various energy resources form complemental power-generation is assessed
Seem very necessary with value.
Also lack in existing index study without meter and performance indicator to the mutual of different type intermittence power supply cogeneration
Mend the index that benefit is evaluated.
Therefore, the programme of micro-capacitance sensor preferably needs to consider following Railway Project：
1) to intend project the technical progress rate in starting planning year to be predicted, particularly new energy unit such as photovoltaic is sent out
Electricity, the unit uncertainty of cost of wind-power electricity generation have quantitative description.
2) the fuel price fluctuation in micro-capacitance sensor operation life cycle, the economy for investing power source planning to be taken into full account
Index can more reflect truth.
If 3) there are a variety of different types of power supplys in micro-capacitance sensor, need to different type intermittence power supply cogeneration
Complementary benefit assessed.
The content of the invention
The present invention mainly solves the technical problem present in prior art；It is proposed that one kind can be counted and dynamic space-time is special first
The micro-capacitance sensor power source planning Scheme Optimum Seeking Methods of sign.Random process model is initially set up to describe in the dynamic of micro-capacitance sensor power source planning
State space-time characteristic, time-varying parameter is added in economic index based on Real Option Theory, propose that energy prices relative risk refers to
Mark.And a kind of power benefit index is introduced, to describe the complementary benefit of a variety of intermittent power supply cogenerations.Finally, using layer
The economic index of the clear and definite power source planning scheme of fractional analysis, reliability index, complementary performance indicator, the weight of environmental protection index,
Overall merit and preferably is made to the power source planning scheme of the micro-capacitance sensor of different space-time characteristics.
The above-mentioned technical problem of the present invention is mainly what is be addressed by following technical proposals：
A kind of micro-capacitance sensor power source planning Scheme Optimum Seeking Methods of meter and dynamic characters, it is characterised in that
Step 1：The programme for treating selection establishes characterization technique progress and the probabilistic random process of fuel price
Model, if the starting year of certain power source planning scheme is t, by adjusting random process model, calculating simulation goes out t units
The desired value I of construction costt, and programme starts the fuel cost desired value P of latter 1 yeart+n。
Step 2：With Monte Carlo Method of Stochastic, the equilibrium data of the micro-capacitance sensor calculated by hour, then
Calculate year short of electricity probability and it is expected that LOLP, year lack delivery and it is expected that LOLE, year short of electricity frequency it is expected LOLF, mean hours short of electricity amount
It is expected EENS as reliability evaluation index；Calculate the financial cost C of the Life cycle of micro-capacitance sensorCF, each power supply operation
And fuel cost Oti；Calculate energy prices risk cost Crisk。
Step 3：For the micro-grid system containing a variety of intermittent energy electricity generation systems, according to the result of production simulation, meter
The complementary performance indicator of a variety of intermittent energies is calculated, such as complementary gain capacity Cm, complementary gain degree λun, generation of electricity by new energy accounting
KN, abandon resource accounting KA, energy storage device utilization rate Ks, and environmental protection index high-carbon generate electricity compare KcarbonWith year pollutant discharge amount
Ep。
Step 4：The power source planning scheme that selection is treated based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) carries out overall merit, it is necessary to which to calculate its each
Refer to target value, then the index of different schemes is compared, is normalized, form an index coefficient matrix μ (xw)。
Step 5：After policymaker to the importance two-by-two between index set by carrying out com-parison and analysis, structure suitably refers to
Weight matrix and judgment matrix are marked, calculates its eigenvalue of maximum and characteristic vector, it is determined that rational weight matrix Wk。
Step 6：Finally, the comprehensive evaluation value T of micro-capacitance sensor power source planning scheme to be selected is calculated by linear weighted function summation,
Cost performance preferred plan is selected from all optional programs.
In the micro-capacitance sensor power source planning Scheme Optimum Seeking Methods of above-mentioned a kind of meter and dynamic characters, described step 1
In, the desired value E [I of unit costt] with the expression formula changed with time t be：
E[It]=I0e-λt(1-φ)=I0e-γt
In formula, I0T=0 Construction of Unit cost is represented, if λ t recording techniques innovation number, φ ∈ [0,1) it is table skill
Art levies the constant of innovation degree.Parameter lambda is technological innovation rate.In formula, γ=λ t (1- φ).
Then the fuel price desired value at certain following moment is：
E[Pt]=P0eμt
In formula, μ represents the drift rate of Brownian motion process, P0Represent t=0 fuel cost.
In the micro-capacitance sensor power source planning Scheme Optimum Seeking Methods of above-mentioned a kind of meter and dynamic characters, described step 2
In, the financial cost mathematic(al) representation of Life cycle is：
In formula, N represents power supply type number, xiFor the number of i-th kind of power supply, J represents the project life cycle from J
Begin,Construction cost, C are originated for the project period of i-th kind of power supplyptiFor the carbon emission punishment cost of i-th kind of power supply, T is Life Cycle
The phase time limit, OtiFor i-th kind of power supply T when operating cost,Maintenance cost is represented, r is discount rate.In formula, unit is in t
The construction cost I in yeartReferring to the Construction of Unit cost E [I in step 1t]。
The operation of each power supply and fuel cost expression formula are：
In formula,It is the fuel cost proportionality coefficient of each high-carbon energy, EtiFor i-th kind of power supply t generated energy.
PtFor the price of t in international crude petroleum, referring to the fuel price in step 1 t desired value E [Pt]。
Change procedure of the energy prices in future obeys random process, is a variable changed at random, if in power supply
Planning does not have meter and this change initial stage, then program results has deviation, and it is this inclined to characterize to define energy prices risk cost
Difference：
In formula, OvarFor meter and following annual energy price volatility when, the fuel cost in the Life cycle of planned project
With OconFor fuel cost when it is assumed that future source of energy price is constant.PconIt is assumed that constant energy prices, it is general by planning
The fuel cost of starting year, which substitutes into, to be calculated.
In the micro-capacitance sensor power source planning Scheme Optimum Seeking Methods of above-mentioned a kind of meter and dynamic characters, described step 3
In, defining wind-light combined power generation system complementary gain capacity is
Cm=Cun-Cwind-CPV
In formula, CunIt is the credible capacity of the wind-light combined power generation system, CwindIt is the credible capacity of wind-powered electricity generation, C in systemPVIt is to be
The credible capacity of photovoltaic generation in system.
It is complementary gain capacity C to define complementary gain degreemWith the credible capacity C of wind-light combined power generation systemunRatio：
The ratio that definition generation of electricity by new energy amount accounts for year total capacity requirement is generation of electricity by new energy accounting：
In formula, ∑ ENFor the year effective output of all new energy units of micro-capacitance sensor, ∑ EloadNeeded for micro-capacitance sensor year total load
Seek electricity.
Definition abandons resource accounting index to be abandoned generated energy and the ratio of new energy gross generation, and calculating formula is as follows：
In formula, ∑ ENATo meet situation and when energy storage does not have remaining active volume due to load, new energy abandons generated energy,
∑ENAFor the year effective output of all new energy units of micro-capacitance sensor.
The utilization rate for defining energy storage device is as follows：
In formula, ∑ EexWhen being used for the accumulative annual electricity generating capacity sent of support load by energy storage device, ∑ EeaseFor energy storage
Add up available generated energy the year of equipment.
Therefore, the invention has the advantages that：A kind of micro-capacitance sensor power supply of energy meter and dynamic characters is proposed first
Programme method for optimizing.Random process model is initially set up to describe the dynamic characters in micro-capacitance sensor power source planning, base
Time-varying parameter is added in economic index in Real Option Theory, proposes energy prices relative risk index.And introduce one kind
Power benefit index, to describe the complementary benefit of a variety of intermittent power supply cogenerations.Finally, it is clearly electric using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
The economic index of source programme, reliability index, complementary performance indicator, the weight of environmental protection index, can be special to different space-times
The power source planning scheme of the micro-capacitance sensor of sign make overall merit and preferably.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the micro-capacitance sensor power source planning index system in the present invention.
Fig. 2 is the schematic flow sheet of micro-capacitance sensor power source planning index method for optimizing in the present invention.
Fig. 3 is the micro-capacitance sensor Life cycle cost that different year originates in the present embodiment.
Fig. 4 is the micro-capacitance sensor overall merit (balance scene) that different year originates in the present embodiment.
Fig. 5 is the micro-capacitance sensor overall merit (high-carbon scene) that different year originates in the present embodiment.
Embodiment
Below by embodiment, and with reference to accompanying drawing, technical scheme is described in further detail.
Embodiment：
Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, technical scheme is described in further detail：
The present invention considers economic indicator, reliability index, performance indicator, environmental protection index and come to micro-capacitance sensor capital project
Carry out preferably (accompanying drawing 1).The random process model of technological progress and fuel price in future time is initially set up, to describe
The dynamic space-time characteristic of micro-capacitance sensor investment.The time-varying parameter of correlation is added in the economic index of micro-capacitance sensor, and introduces one kind
Power benefit index, to describe the complementary benefit of a variety of intermittent power supply cogenerations.Then using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to the above
Index carries out overall merit, never with taking optimal case in the power source planning scheme of the micro-capacitance sensor of space-time characteristic.
1. the economic index calculating process of meter and dynamic characters is as follows：
It is assumed that the starting year of certain power source planning project is t, improved in t production technologies, then the project
It is I that Construction of Unit expense, which need to be undertaken,t, then this departmental cost is the cost of investment of the whole project of technology then.Technological progress is into
The external cause of this reduction, the progress process of changing with time of technology is random, it is assumed that during t ＞ 0, the construction cost of unit is：
In formula, I0Represent t=0 Construction of Unit cost, NtIt is Poisson stochastic variable, if λ t recording techniques reform number,
φ ∈ [0,1) it is the constant that table technology levies innovation degree.Parameter lambda is the rate of technological innovation.Obviously, the desired value I of unit costt
There is exponential relationship with time t：
E[It]=I0e-λt(1-φ)=I0e-γt
In formula, γ=λ t (1- φ).Therefore, if adjusting parameter λ or φ, such as the arrival rate λ's of increase technological innovation is same
When reduce technology sign innovation degree φ, then variable λ (1- φ) may be constant.In addition, adjusting parameter λ or φ, can change following machine
The probability distribution of group construction cost, ItVariance it is as follows：
As can be seen from the above equation, when λ levels off to infinity, φ level off to 1 when, variance Var [It] close to zero, that is, increase
λ and φ can make the uncertain reduction of technological progress.On the other hand, adjustment φ level off to 0 when, the uncertainty of technological progress
It is maximum.That is, can be with the degree of uncertainty of adjustment technology progress by adjusting λ and φ.
In micro-capacitance sensor, traditional high-carbon unit such as gas turbine, diesel engine need to generate electricity by fossil fuel, therefore fuel
Price directly influence the operating cost of conventional rack.Herein, project t fuel cost PtIn the variation in future
Process is assumed that to meet geometric Brownian motion process：
In formula, μ and σ represent the drift rate and fluctuation parameters of this Brownian motion process respectively, and dz is standard Brownian movement
The often step variation of journey.
It is assumed that 0≤μ ＜ r, wherein r are discount rates.According to the mathematical characteristic of geometric Brownian motion process, then certain following moment
Fuel price desired value be：
E[Pt]=P0eμt
Then the uncertainty of fuel price can be adjusted by parameter σ, can be learnt by above formula, and parameter σ adjustment is not
The motion path of Brownian motion process can be changed.
The economic mathematical model of the Life cycle of micro-capacitance sensor is described as follows：
In formula, N represents power supply type number, xiFor the number of i-th kind of power supply, J represents the project life cycle from J
Begin,Construction cost, C are originated for the project period of i-th kind of power supplyptiFor the carbon emission punishment cost of i-th kind of power supply, T is Life Cycle
The phase time limit, OtiFor i-th kind of power supply T when operating cost,Maintenance cost is represented, r is discount rate.In formula, unit is in t
The construction cost I in yeartReferring to the Construction of Unit cost E [I in random process model used abovet]。
To high-carbon energy, annual operation and fuel cost are proportional to International Crude Oil then.
In formula,It is the fuel cost proportionality coefficient of each high-carbon energy, EtiFor i-th kind of power supply t generated energy.
PtFor the price of t in international crude petroleum, referring to the desired value in fuel price random process model used above in t
E[Pt]。
Due to the complementarity of wind-resources and light resource in the time and geographically, make honourable cogeneration than wind-force is used alone
Generate electricity or photovoltaic generation more can overcome the disadvantages that the loss brought due to energy intermittence.Complementary gain capacity is defined herein and complementary degree comes
Weigh this benefit.
2. performance indicator calculating process is as follows：
If wind-light combined power generation system complementary gain capacity is：
Cm=Cun-Cwind-CPV
In formula, CunIt is the credible capacity of the wind-light combined power generation system, CwindIt is the credible capacity of wind-powered electricity generation, C in systemPVIt is to be
The credible capacity of photovoltaic generation in system.From definition, if complementary gain capacity CmMore than 0, then system benefits from complementary spy
Property, CmBigger, complementary characteristic is better.
It is complementary gain capacity C to define complementary gain degreemWith the credible capacity C of wind-light combined power generation systemunRatio：
λ in formulaunFor the complementary gain degree of wind-light combined power generation system.From definition, if complementary gain degree λunMore
Greatly, system complementary characteristic is better.
The ratio that definition generation of electricity by new energy amount accounts for year total capacity requirement is generation of electricity by new energy accounting：
In formula, ∑ ENFor the year effective output of all new energy units of micro-capacitance sensor, ∑ EloadNeeded for micro-capacitance sensor year total load
Seek electricity.
If the active volume of energy storage is less than when being imbued with output of this moment new energy source machine group, it will " abandoning wind " occurs and " abandons
The situation of light ".Definition abandons resource accounting index to be abandoned generated energy and the ratio of new energy gross generation herein, and calculating formula is as follows：
In formula, ∑ ENATo meet situation and when energy storage does not have remaining active volume due to load, new energy abandons generated energy,
∑ENAFor the year effective output of all new energy units of micro-capacitance sensor.
The remaining active volume of energy storage device is fluctuated as distributed power source is different with the match condition of load, and energy storage is set
Standby charge-discharge electric power is the power that energy storage and power supply or load exchange.The utilization rate for defining energy storage device is as follows：
In formula, ∑ EexWhen being used for the accumulative annual electricity generating capacity sent of support load by energy storage device, ∑ EeaseFor energy storage
Add up available generated energy the year of equipment.
Change procedure of the energy prices in future obeys random process, is a variable changed at random, if in power supply
Planning does not have meter and this change initial stage, then program results has deviation, defines energy prices risk cost herein to characterize this
Kind deviation：
In formula, OvarFor meter and following annual energy price volatility when, the fuel cost in the Life cycle of planned project
With OconFor fuel cost when it is assumed that future source of energy price is constant.PconIt is assumed that constant energy prices, it is general by planning
The fuel cost of starting year, which substitutes into, to be calculated.
After the indices for having calculated all planning capital projects for treating selection, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) need to be based on to not Tongfang
The index of case does Integrated comparative.
3. the preferred calculating process of scheme based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is as follows：
Index is ranked up according to importance, construction judges weight ratio matrix, and then Judgement Matricies B, and counts
Calculate its eigenvalue of maximum λmax, and corresponding characteristic vector is such as：
X=[x1, x2, x3... xn]T
The uniformity of test and judge matrix, the metric matrix B degree of consistency are expressed asAs C (B)
When≤0.1, it is believed that judgment matrix B compatibility is preferable, the eigenvalue of maximum λ of matrix BmaxCorresponding characteristic vector is x=[x1,
x2, x3... xn]TIt is exactly weight vectors W=[w1, w2, w3... wn]T。
Because characteristic vector is generally not unique corresponding to characteristic value, so carrying out the normalization of characteristic vector.Normalization is public
Formula is as follows, for the factor of evaluation being the bigger the better：
For the smaller the better factor of evaluation：
Bring gained Combining weights into formula, the synthesis of micro-capacitance sensor power source planning scheme is calculated by linear weighted function summation
Evaluation of estimate：
In formula：μ(xw) be actual index normalized value, WkTo wait to seek the weighted value of each index；
4. in order to verify the beneficial effect of the inventive method, following emulation experiment has been carried out：
Exemplified by certain actual Island power network using addition wind-light storage electricity generation system.The distributed power source class studied herein
Type has blower fan, photovoltaic cell, 3 kinds of miniature gas turbine.
4 kinds of crew qiting schemes for meeting the micro-capacitance sensor power supply reliability in document [20] are with reference to, are shown in Table 1.This 4 kinds of sides
Case has all made the short of electricity hour in year of present case micro-capacitance sensor in required scope.
Table 1
Allocation plan (the unit of the distributed power source unit of table 1：MW)
New energy installation wherein in scheme 1 is minimum, and high-carbon machine kludge is most, without battery；Scheme 2 then on the contrary,
It is an installation scheme for being partial to new energy；Scheme 3 and scheme 4 are two kinds of compromises in new energy and traditional high-carbon energy
Scheme.
Assuming that the planning starting year of the micro-capacitance sensor since 2014, it is as shown in table 2 to the attribute decision table of 4 kinds of schemes：
Table 2
The scheme attribute decision table of table 2
Weight vector W can be obtained by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) corresponding to its index, i.e.,
W=(W1, W2... w20)=(0.0822,0.0822,0.1643,
0.0548,0.1643,0.0822,0.0235,0.0183,
0.0235,0.0235,0.0274,0.0183,0.0205,
0.0411,0.0235,0.0041,0.0088,0.0044,
0.0044,0.0044)
Summed according to Weight, the index comprehensive assessed value for finally giving 4 kinds of schemes is
T1=0.451, T2=0.520, T3=0.789, T4=0.467
Such scheme, which is ranked up, according to assessed value size to obtain：
T3＞ T2＞ T4＞ T1
As a result show, it is comprehensive after meter and the dynamic characters of evaluation index in this island microgrid plans example
Consider reliability, economy and environmental protection index, it is optimal using scheme 3.
In order to illustrate the dynamic characters in micro-capacitance sensor power source planning scheme, it is assumed that micro-capacitance sensor was planned from the different times
Starting, more extreme without battery to the scheme 1 in table 1, hereafter Main Analysis scheme 2 arrives scheme 4.
Accompanying drawing 3 is the Life cycle cost from the micro-capacitance sensor programme of the different following not the same year startings：
Simulation result shows, for the micro-capacitance sensor in this example, since 2014 during planning construction, using power configuration side
The Life cycle cost highest of case 2；But since 2022 when locally planning micro-capacitance sensor, using power configuration scheme 2
Life cycle cost most save.
According to american energy Information Management Bureau and Mo Te MacDonalds company to WeiLai Technology Progress Rate and international energy valency
The prediction of lattice, space-time characteristic can be divided into low-carbon scene, balance scene and high-carbon scene.Skill is adjusted by adjusting λ and φ
The degree of uncertainty of art progress, adjusting parameter σ adjust the uncertainty of fuel price, respectively to balance scene and high-carbon field
Scape is simulated.
Based on both scenes, respectively in emulation table 1 after 3 kinds of programmes the execution starting year be respectively 2011,
2012, until the situations of 2039.
It balances the overall target changing trend diagram of 3 kinds of programmes of future that the emulation of scene obtains as shown in Figure 4：
High-carbon scene simulation obtains the overall target changing trend diagram such as accompanying drawing 5 of following 3 kinds of programmes.
Emulation can see more than, and after meter and multi-space characteristic, the comprehensive evaluation index of scheme 2 exceedes commenting for scheme 3
Valency index is following trend.In scene is balanced, scheme 2 exceeded scheme 3 in 2021, and in high-carbon scene, scheme 2 is then
It is deferred to 2032 and exceedes scheme 3.Because the investment construction cost and fuel price of unit in high-carbon scene have it is smaller
Uncertainty, and generation of electricity by new energy accounting is higher in scheme 2, will benefit from this uncertainty.Scientific and technological progress and policy are helped
Holding can accelerate high-carbon scene generation of electricity by new energy is had more cost performance to balance scene conversion.
Specific embodiment described in the present invention is only to spirit explanation for example of the invention.Technology belonging to the present invention
The technical staff in field can make various modifications or supplement to described specific embodiment or using similar mode
Substitute, but without departing from the spiritual of the present invention or surmount scope defined in appended claims.
Claims (4)
- A kind of 1. micro-capacitance sensor power source planning Scheme Optimum Seeking Methods of meter and dynamic characters, it is characterised in thatStep 1：The programme for treating selection establishes characterization technique progress and the probabilistic random process model of fuel price, If the starting year of certain power source planning scheme is t, by adjusting random process model, calculating simulation goes out t Construction of Unit The desired value I of costt, and programme starts the fuel cost desired value P of latter 1 yeart+n；Step 2：With Monte Carlo Method of Stochastic, the equilibrium data of the micro-capacitance sensor calculated by hour, then calculate Go out year short of electricity probability and it is expected that LOLP, year lack delivery and it is expected that LOLE, year short of electricity frequency it is expected that LOLF, mean hours short of electricity amount it is expected EENS is as reliability evaluation index；Calculate the financial cost C of the Life cycle of micro-capacitance sensorCF, each power supply operation and combustion Expect cost Oti；Step 3：For the micro-grid system containing a variety of intermittent energy electricity generation systems, according to the result of production simulation, calculate The complementary performance indicator of a variety of intermittent energies, such as complementary gain capacity Cm, complementary gain degree λun, generation of electricity by new energy accounting KN、 Abandon resource accounting KA, energy storage device utilization rate Ks, energy prices risk cost Crisk, and environmental protection index high-carbon generating ratio KcarbonWith year pollutant discharge amount Ep；Step 4：The power source planning scheme that selection is treated based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP) carries out overall merit, it is necessary to calculate its each index Value, then the index of different schemes is compared, is normalized, formed an index coefficient matrix μ (xw)；Step 5：After policymaker to the importance two-by-two between index set by carrying out com-parison and analysis, suitable index power is built Weight matrix and judgment matrix, the eigenvalue of maximum and characteristic vector of judgment matrix are calculated, it is determined that rational weight matrix Wk；Step 6：Finally, the comprehensive evaluation value T of micro-capacitance sensor power source planning scheme to be selected is calculated by linear weighted function summation, from institute There is selection cost performance preferred plan in optional program.
- 2. the micro-capacitance sensor power source planning Scheme Optimum Seeking Methods of a kind of meter according to claim 1 and dynamic characters, its It is characterised by, in described step 1, the desired value E [I of unit costt] with the expression formula changed with time t be：E[It]=I0e-λt(1-φ)=I0e-γtIn formula, I0T=0 Construction of Unit cost is represented, if λ t recording techniques innovation number, φ ∈ [0,1) it is characterization technique leather The constant of new degree, parameter lambda are technological innovation rates, in formula, γ=λ t (1- φ)；Then the fuel price desired value at certain following moment is：e[Pt]=P0eμtIn formula, μ represents the drift rate of Brownian motion process, P0Represent t=0 fuel cost.
- 3. the micro-capacitance sensor power source planning Scheme Optimum Seeking Methods of a kind of meter according to claim 1 and dynamic characters, its It is characterised by, in described step 2, the financial cost mathematic(al) representation of Life cycle is：<mrow> <msub> <mi>C</mi> <mrow> <mi>C</mi> <mi>F</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <munderover> <mi>&Sigma;</mi> <mrow> <mi>t</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mi>j</mi> </mrow> <mrow> <mi>T</mi> <mo>+</mo> <mi>j</mi> </mrow> </munderover> <munderover> <mo>&Sigma;</mo> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> <mi>N</mi> </munderover> <mfrac> <mrow> <msub> <mi>x</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <msub> <mi>C</mi> <mrow> <msub> <mi>pt</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> </mrow> </msub> <mo>+</mo> <msub> <mi>x</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <msub> <mi>I</mi> <msub> <mi>t</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> </msub> <mo>+</mo> <msub> <mi>x</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <msub> <mi>O</mi> <msub> <mi>t</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> </msub> <mo>+</mo> <msub> <mi>x</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> <msub> <mi>M</mi> <msub> <mi>t</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> </msub> </mrow> <msup> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>+</mo> <mi>r</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mi>t</mi> </msup> </mfrac> </mrow>In formula, N represents power supply type number, xiFor the number of i-th kind of power supply, J represents the project life cycle and originated from J, Construction cost, C are originated for the project period of i-th kind of power supplyptiFor the carbon emission punishment cost of i-th kind of power supply, T is life cycle year Limit, OtiFor i-th kind of power supply T when operating cost,Represent maintenance cost, r is discount rate, and in formula, unit is t's Construction cost ItReferring to the Construction of Unit cost E [I in step 1t]；The operation of each power supply and fuel cost expression formula are：<mrow> <msub> <mi>O</mi> <mi>ti</mi> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <msub> <mi>K</mi> <msub> <mi>FC</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> </msub> <msub> <mi>E</mi> <mi>ti</mi> </msub> <msub> <mi>P</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msub> </mrow>In formula,It is the fuel cost proportionality coefficient of each high-carbon energy, EtiIt is i-th kind of power supply in t generated energy, PtFor T price in international crude petroleum, referring to the fuel price in step 1 t desired value E [Pt]。
- 4. the micro-capacitance sensor power source planning Scheme Optimum Seeking Methods of a kind of meter according to claim 1 and dynamic characters, its It is characterised by, in described step 3, defining wind-light combined power generation system complementary gain capacity isCm=Cun-Cwind-CPVIn formula, CunIt is the credible capacity of the wind-light combined power generation system, CwindIt is the credible capacity of wind-powered electricity generation, C in systemPVIt is in system The credible capacity of photovoltaic generation；It is complementary gain capacity C to define complementary gain degreemWith the credible capacity C of wind-light combined power generation systemunRatio：<mrow> <msub> <mi>&lambda;</mi> <mrow> <mi>u</mi> <mi>n</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <mfrac> <msub> <mi>C</mi> <mi>m</mi> </msub> <msub> <mi>C</mi> <mrow> <mi>u</mi> <mi>n</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mfrac> </mrow>The ratio that definition generation of electricity by new energy amount accounts for year total capacity requirement is generation of electricity by new energy accounting：<mrow> <msub> <mi>K</mi> <mi>N</mi> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <mfrac> <mrow> <msub> <mi>&Sigma;E</mi> <mi>N</mi> </msub> </mrow> <mrow> <msub> <mi>&Sigma;E</mi> <mrow> <mi>l</mi> <mi>o</mi> <mi>a</mi> <mi>d</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mrow> </mfrac> </mrow>In formula, ∑ ENFor the year effective output of all new energy units of micro-capacitance sensor, ∑ EloadFor micro-capacitance sensor year total capacity requirement electricity Amount；Definition abandons resource accounting index to be abandoned generated energy and the ratio of new energy gross generation, and calculating formula is as follows：<mrow> <msub> <mi>K</mi> <mi>A</mi> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <mfrac> <mrow> <msub> <mi>&Sigma;E</mi> <mrow> <mi>N</mi> <mi>A</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mrow> <mrow> <msub> <mi>&Sigma;E</mi> <mi>N</mi> </msub> </mrow> </mfrac> </mrow>In formula, ∑ ENATo meet situation and when energy storage does not have remaining active volume due to load, new energy abandons generated energy, ∑ ENA For the year effective output of all new energy units of micro-capacitance sensor；The utilization rate for defining energy storage device is as follows：<mrow> <msub> <mi>K</mi> <mi>s</mi> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <mfrac> <mrow> <msub> <mi>&Sigma;E</mi> <mrow> <mi>e</mi> <mi>x</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mrow> <mrow> <msub> <mi>&Sigma;E</mi> <mrow> <mi>e</mi> <mi>a</mi> <mi>s</mi> <mi>e</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mrow> </mfrac> <mo>-</mo> <mo>-</mo> <mo>-</mo> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mn>16</mn> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> </mrow>In formula, ∑ EexWhen being used for the accumulative annual electricity generating capacity sent of support load by energy storage device, ∑ EeaseFor energy storage device Year accumulative available generated energy；Change procedure of the energy prices in future obeys random process, is a variable changed at random, if in power source planning Initial stage does not count and this change, then program results has deviation, defines energy prices risk cost to characterize this deviation：<mrow> <msub> <mi>C</mi> <mrow> <mi>r</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>s</mi> <mi>k</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo>=</mo> <mfrac> <mrow> <msub> <mi>O</mi> <mi>var</mi> </msub> <mo>-</mo> <msub> <mi>O</mi> <mrow> <mi>c</mi> <mi>o</mi> <mi>n</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mrow> <mrow> <msub> <mi>C</mi> <mrow> <msub> <mi>CF</mi> <mi>j</mi> </msub> </mrow> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>x</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> </mrow> </mfrac> <mo>=</mo> <mfrac> <mrow> <munderover> <mo>&Sigma;</mo> <mrow> <mi>t</mi> <mo>=</mo> <msub> <mi>t</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> </mrow> <mi>t</mi> </munderover> <msub> <mi>K</mi> <mrow> <msub> <mi>FC</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> </mrow> </msub> <msub> <mi>E</mi> <mrow> <mi>t</mi> <mi>i</mi> </mrow> </msub> <msub> <mi>P</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msub> <mo>-</mo> <munderover> <mo>&Sigma;</mo> <mrow> <mi>t</mi> <mo>=</mo> <msub> <mi>t</mi> <mi>o</mi> </msub> </mrow> <mi>t</mi> </munderover> <msub> <mi>K</mi> <mrow> <msub> <mi>FC</mi> <mi>i</mi> </msub> </mrow> </msub> <msub> <mi>E</mi> <mrow> <mi>t</mi> <mi>i</mi> </mrow> </msub> <msub> <mi>P</mi> <mrow> <mi>c</mi> <mi>o</mi> <mi>n</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mrow> <mrow> <msub> <mi>C</mi> <mrow> <msub> <mi>CF</mi> <mi>j</mi> </msub> </mrow> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>x</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> </mrow> </mfrac> </mrow>In formula, OvarFor meter and following annual energy price volatility when, the fuel cost in the Life cycle of planned project, Ocon For fuel cost when it is assumed that future source of energy price is constant；PconIt is assumed that constant energy prices, it is general by the planning starting year Fuel cost substitute into calculate.
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