CN105512797A - Pollution risk traceablility and risk degree display methods of control section - Google Patents
Pollution risk traceablility and risk degree display methods of control section Download PDFInfo
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- CN105512797A CN105512797A CN201510833728.7A CN201510833728A CN105512797A CN 105512797 A CN105512797 A CN 105512797A CN 201510833728 A CN201510833728 A CN 201510833728A CN 105512797 A CN105512797 A CN 105512797A
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Abstract
The invention discloses pollution risk traceablility method of a control section. The method comprises: a hydrological analysis is carried out on a target drainage basin and sub drainage basin division is carried out; according to a factor influencing a water environment quality, an integrated index system is constructed by using an analytic hierarchy process and influence grade division and scoring are carried out on all indexes; according to influence degrees of all indexes on a target pollutant in a water environment, weighing coefficients are set; for a target control section, all index values of each sub drainage basin relative to the control section are calculated in practical investigation; scores of the index values are calculated, integrated evaluation is carried out based on the index scores and the weighing coefficients, and thus integrated risk scores of the sub drainage basins on the control section are obtained; and the scores are used as the basis for determining the pollution influence degrees of the target control section by the sub drainage basins as well as self-defined colored tape displaying in GIS. With the pollution risk traceablility method, the number of investigated sub drainage basin can be substantially reduced by using a few resources; and the efficiency of the pollution source traceablility is also substantially improved.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to Water Basin Water Pollution control field, be specifically related to a kind of control section pollution risk and trace to the source and degree of risk methods of exhibiting.
Background technology
In recent years, water contamination accident takes place frequently stimulates the nerve of compatriots, and as pollute move back towards mechanism pollution source trace to the source, move back towards mechanism appoint so well do not set up.Trace it to its cause, the imperfection of tracing technology causes the main cause of reviewing difficulty.When current water pollution control technology, mainly there is various places environmental monitoring department to set up monitoring section in main river course, carry out long-term monitoring water quality to carry out.And monitor that section can be divided into that state is controlled usually, province's control, city's control, the following several large class of Kong Ji county of county control, have each place to monitor department liable respectively.When monitoring monitoring section and occurring that water quality is abnormal, need to carry out comprehensive sampling to the different river cross-sections of monitoring section upstream and downstream, and these water samples carry out, and detection is analyzed, comparison, constantly reduces suspicious scope, until finally find source, realize investigation and tracking mechanism.But, developed regions intensive in part industry, if the suspicious blowdown enterprise of upstream is more, then will certainly causes polluting the workload of tracing to the source large, the time energy of at substantial, can not carry out pollution source investigation, work of tracing to the source timely and effectively.Therefore, usually can cause having found there is contamination phenomenon, but the situation of ending up with nothing definite because cannot source be found, effective earthquake cannot be formed to illegal blowdown and fear.
The basic demand of tracing to the source is the scope reducing suspicious object place as much as possible.And in security fields, Risk Measurement Method is a kind of comparatively ripe method describing risk possibility occurrence in a probabilistic manner.But when being applied to environmental area, due to the shortage of statistical data in practical application, calculating becomes very complicated sometimes and is even difficult to calculating, also reduces the confidence level of risk simultaneously.Blur method describes probabilistic impact with fuzzy parameter, compensate for the deficiency of probability theory method to a great extent.Risk is the concept of a Relative Fuzzy, and every choosing of judging quota standard also has ambiguity, and the method for sticking with paste degree of membership in mathematics being applied to risk class differentiation has ideal.Meanwhile, the type of risk is different, and its harm form is also different, and the tolerance weighing hazard analysis and HACCP has multiple characterization method, as casualties, and loss on work day, property loss, ecological disruption etc.In order to carry out risk assessment, needing can the index of quantitative description hazard analysis and HACCP, and this index can be unified to weigh various hazard analysis and HACCP of different nature.The many employings of linear module " death/year " of current risk, there is the obstacle of quantization signifying in actual applications in this measure being referred from security fields, be difficult to set up corresponding quantitative relationship in the application in water environment field, exist in practice and quantize corresponding and conversion disorder.Therefore, need to set up a kind of succinct index method intuitively and carry out the sign of result, be convenient to carrying out of Water environments simulation management.
Summary of the invention
The object of the invention is to solve the deficiencies in the prior art, and provide a kind of control section pollution risk source tracing method, concrete technical scheme is as follows:
A kind of control section pollution risk source tracing method, comprises the steps:
1) hydrological analysis is carried out in target basin, be divided into several sub basin;
2) according to the factor affecting quality of water environment, adopt analytical hierarchy process to build pollutant comprehensive index system, pollutant is COD, NH
3in-N, TN and TP any one;
3) for step 2) in the comprehensive index system that obtains carry out affecting grade classification on each index, determine the highest and lowest threshold affecting grade, and tax point carried out to different brackets; Simultaneously according to the influence degree setting weight coefficient I of each index to target contaminant in water environment
i;
4) for target control section, on factual survey basis, each sub basin is calculated respectively relative to desired values all in the comprehensive index system of this control section;
5) by step 4) each desired value of obtaining and step 3) in the threshold value affecting grade compare, if desired value falls within the scope of the highest and lowest threshold of a certain grade of impact, then divide the score P as this index using the tax that this grade is preset
i;
6) for target control section, carry out comprehensive evaluation according to index score and weight coefficient, obtain the risk integrative score value M of each sub basin to control section, computing formula is
in formula, n is index number in comprehensive index system;
7) using the risk integrative score value M of each sub basin as judgement this sub basin to the foundation of target control section pollution effect degree, M value size and influence degree positive correlation, thus determine that different sub basin affects the probability of this target control section, reach object of tracing to the source.
As preferably, index in described comprehensive index system comprises: the Dominant Industry residing for sub basin Nei Dian source emission enterprise, point source quantity of wastewater effluent in sub basin, the water quality complexity of point source sewage effluent in sub basin, the technological level of sub basin Nei Dian source emission enterprise, nitrogen application intensity in sub basin, phosphate fertilizer intensity in sub basin, livestock and poultry cultivation quantity in sub basin, sanitary sewage adapter rate in sub basin, target monitoring control of section classification, sub basin is to the river course of target monitoring section along journey distance, target monitoring section water quality, the target water quality of sub basin location water environmental function zone, target monitoring section flow, described target contaminant is COD, NH
3in-N, TN, TP any one.
As preferably, the tax affecting grade classification and each grade that in described comprehensive index system, each index is carried out divides as shown in the table:
Wherein in sub basin, the concrete judgment criteria of the water quality complexity of point source sewage effluent is:
Complicated: pollutant type number >=3; Or only need predict water quality parameter number >=10 of its concentration containing 2 pollutants;
Medium: pollutant type number=the 2 and water quality parameter number < 10 of its concentration need be predicted; Or only need predict water quality parameter number >=7 of its concentration containing 1 pollutant;
Simple: pollutant type number=1 and water quality parameter number < 7 of its concentration need be predicted;
The technological level of described sub basin Nei Dian source emission enterprise is determined according to employer's organization's database or adopts expert point rating method to determine.
As preferably, in described comprehensive index system, the weight coefficient of each index is as shown in the table:
Based on above-mentioned source tracing method, present invention also offers a kind of control section pollution risk degree methods of exhibiting, based on the risk integrative score value M of each sub basin obtained according to claim 1 in GIS, the Show Color of self-defined colour band to each sub basin is played up, and shows the pollution risk degree of different sub basin to target control section with the color depth.M value is larger, and color is darker, intuitively represents the height of risk with this.
The present invention establish one simply, control section pollution risk source tracing method effectively, object of comparatively accurately tracing to the source can be reached by less data.And required basic data comparatively easily obtains concerning environmental monitoring department.In addition, the control section pollution risk degree methods of exhibiting that the present invention sets up clearly expresses the degree of this sub basin to target control section pollution risk with colour band, thus for environmental management department provide a kind of can directly perceived, clear displaying preferentially investigate area instrument, substantially increase the efficiency that pollution source are reviewed.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 be in embodiment 1 1# sub basin to the risk integrative score value of different control section;
Fig. 2 is the position distribution of different sub basin in embodiment 1.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with embodiment, the present invention will be further described.
A kind of control section pollution risk source tracing method, comprises the steps:
1) hydrological analysis is carried out in target basin, be divided into several sub basin;
2) according to the factor affecting quality of water environment, adopt analytical hierarchy process to build pollutant comprehensive index system, pollutant is COD, NH
3in-N, TN and TP any one;
3) for step 2) in the comprehensive index system that obtains carry out affecting grade classification on each index, determine the highest and lowest threshold affecting grade, and tax point carried out to different brackets; Simultaneously according to the influence degree setting weight coefficient I of each index to target contaminant in water environment
i;
4) for target control section, on factual survey basis, all desired values of each sub basin relative to this control section are calculated respectively;
5) by step 4) each desired value of obtaining and step 3) in the threshold value affecting grade compare, if desired value falls within the scope of the highest and lowest threshold of a certain grade of impact, then divide the score P as this index using the tax that this grade is preset
i;
6) for target control section, carry out comprehensive evaluation according to index score and weight coefficient, obtain the risk integrative score value M of each sub basin to control section, computing formula is
in formula, n is index number in comprehensive index system;
7) using the risk integrative score value M of each sub basin as judgement this sub basin to the foundation of target control section pollution effect degree, M value size and influence degree positive correlation, thus determine that different sub basin affects the probability of this target control section, reach object of tracing to the source.
Index in described comprehensive index system comprises: the Dominant Industry residing for sub basin Nei Dian source emission enterprise, point source quantity of wastewater effluent in sub basin, the water quality complexity of point source sewage effluent in sub basin, the technological level of sub basin Nei Dian source emission enterprise, nitrogen application intensity in sub basin, phosphate fertilizer intensity in sub basin, livestock and poultry cultivation quantity in sub basin, sanitary sewage adapter rate in sub basin, target monitoring control of section classification, sub basin is to the river course of target monitoring section along journey distance, target monitoring section water quality, the target water quality of sub basin location water environmental function zone, target monitoring section flow, described target contaminant is COD, NH
3in-N, TN, TP any one.
The tax affecting grade classification and each grade that in described comprehensive index system, each index is carried out divides as shown in the table:
In upper table, the Dominant Industry one hurdle different industries residing for sub basin Nei Dian source emission enterprise separates with comma.The threshold value of target monitoring section water quality and grade and pollutant type closely related, COD, NH
3-N, TN and TP get respectively its be expert at record grade and threshold value.
In upper table neutron basin, the concrete judgment criteria of the water quality complexity of point source sewage effluent is:
Complicated: pollutant type number >=3; Or only need predict water quality parameter number >=10 of its concentration containing 2 pollutants;
Medium: pollutant type number=the 2 and water quality parameter number < 10 of its concentration need be predicted; Or only need predict water quality parameter number >=7 of its concentration containing 1 pollutant;
Simple: pollutant type number=1 and water quality parameter number < 7 of its concentration need be predicted;
In the technological level of described sub basin Nei Dian source emission enterprise: IV grade, III grade, II grade, I grade represents domestic backwardness, domestic average, domestic advanced person, international most advanced level generally respectively.This evaluation of estimate can be determined according to employer's organization's database or adopt expert point rating method to determine.The leading fresh water (FW) of general employer's organization to industry Nei Ge enterprise on average has corresponding database to carry out record, can with reference to relevant record when evaluating.When this shortage of data, the method that expert group can be adopted to appraise through discussion is determined, and selection expert as much as possible evaluates, and draws the conclusion and suggestion that substantially tally with the actual situation.
In described comprehensive index system, the weight coefficient of each index is as shown in the table:
Respective value during upper table the 2 ~ 5 arranges represents this numerical value respectively and to be expert at the first lattice middle finger target weight.Numerical value as this form three row two row is 0.14, and represent in the comprehensive index system of COD, the weight of index " in sub basin point source quantity of wastewater effluent " is 0.14.
Above-mentioned comprehensive index system, affect grade threshold, grade composes point and weight coefficient is all analyze to draw in applicant to affect risk many decades Monitoring Data on area source, what in weight determining procedure, also combine expert's group appraises suggestion through discussion simultaneously, therefore there is science and preciseness, meet the natural law of regional water pollutions risk.
Embodiment 1
For Jiashan city of Zhejiang Province, carry out monitoring section risk and trace to the source.Based on the lot of research of applicant about the risk assessment of water environment cumulative bad, in conjunction with expert opinion and Hangjiahu Plain network of waterways feature, mainly carry out assessment from the main aspect such as risk source and risk receptor, wherein risk receptor and water environment itself, comprise the water quality of river course and section, the water yield, function zoning etc., belong to direct evaluation index type; Risk source is divided into point source and Deng Liang aspect, source, face, comprise discharged volume of industrial waste water, farmland fertilizer use situation, factor that livestock and poultry cultivation situation, sanitary sewage emission behaviour etc. affect water environment situation, by analyzing these factors, prediction and evaluation Water environments simulation, belongs to Indirect evaluation pointer type.
(1) Index system framework
Index system framework adopts analytical hierarchy process to determine, comprises three levels: first class index layer, two-level index layer and factor layer.
The risk assessment of water environment cumulative bad is carried out respectively by COD, ammonia nitrogen, these 4 factors of TN, TP, and corresponding index system specific targets System Framework is in table 1.
Table 1 assessment indicator system framework
The explanation of specific targets System Framework
A, water environment evaluation index
Water quality assessment in water environment evaluation is with fastest developing speed, a progressive maximum branch in China's environmental quality assessment, and method is a lot, has quality evaluation method in two, 30 to be widely adopted at home and abroad.Wherein apply and more severally comprise single pollution assessment method, composite index law, Polluter Pay, Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment, Grey evaluation model etc.According to the water-quality guideline value that " water environment quality standard " (GB3838-2002) different quality classification is corresponding, in conjunction with information such as water environmental function zone, control section information, the water yields, water environment situation is evaluated.
B, risk source evaluation index
Affect in the factor of quality of water environment, pollution source are the background gactors paid close attention to the most, can be divided into point source and source, face by distribution character, by sources can be divided into industrial source, life source, agricultural sources.First class index---the risk source of water environment cumulative bad risk assessment, its two-level index layer comprises point source and source, face, factor layer contains industry, agricultural, life three aspect, point source mainly considers the factor such as industry type, discharge of wastewater, waste water quality complexity, production technology level of industrial source, and the factors such as the emission behaviour of chemical fertilizer application situation, livestock and poultry cultivation situation, sanitary sewage are considered in source, face.Risk source evaluation index in this project, stresses point factorial pollution source and discharges for a long time, affects the cumulative bad of receiving water body water quality.
(2) metrics evaluation grade classification
Metrics evaluation standard and tax divide in table 2.
Table 2 metrics evaluation standard and a tax point situation
The determination principle of item discriminant criterion standard is as follows:
1) water environment evaluation index
The main monitoring section in river course has corresponding control of section type, provides the different score values that control of section classification is corresponding accordingly, and the rank of state's control section is the highest, economizes control secondly, moreover is city's control, county's control and minimum below.
The small watershed in cumulative bad risk assessment region is exported to the distance of section; certain influence can be produced to the change of water quality of section; decay according to the analog computation of one-dimensional stable water quality model; with reference to the division etc. of water environmental function zone intake upstream and downstream guard space, provide the Distance evaluation threshold value that small watershed is exported to control section.
The water quality standard value that in section water-quality guideline standard value reference " water environment quality standard " (GB3838-2002), different quality classification is corresponding.
The indicators standard value of section function zoning target water quality is with reference to " Water Functional Zone, Zhejiang Province, water environmental function zone offshoot program ".
The evaluation criterion value of river discharge divides the division with reference to large, medium and small stream channel pattern in water conservancy industry standard " waters water environment capacity calculates code " (SL348-2006).
2) risk source evaluation index
4 evaluation indexes of point source are consistent with seminar.Dominant Industry Type division is with reference to " industrial sectors of national economy classification " (GB/T4754-2011), Environmental Protection Department general office letter " notice about printing and distributing " trade classification management register is verified in listed company's environmental protection " " (ring does No. [2008] 373, letter), in conjunction with expert opinion, consider that every profession and trade is to the pollution effect degree of water environment, divides index grade belonging to industry; Quantity of wastewater effluent is with reference to basin point source discharge of wastewater situation; By the feature water quality parameter table of trade classification and the decision method of water quality complexity type in sewage quality complexity reference ground water environment Environmental assessment technology directive/guide; Dominant Industry technological level is with reference to industry related process development.
The nitrogen application intensity in source, face and phosphate fertilizer intensity evaluation indicators standard value, with reference to " explanation of chemical fertilizer application Environmental security fire protection technology " and international nitrogen application situation, comprehensive Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou area farmland fertilization situation provides; It is that applicable scale division table in conjunction with the intensive culture district of Zhejiang Province's provincial standard and national standard provides that livestock and poultry cultivation quantitative assessment scale divides, and the translation method of livestock and poultry cultivation kind blowdown is with reference to " Zhejiang Province's livestock and poultry breeding industry pollutant emission standard " (DB33-593-2005); Sanitary sewage adapter rate is with reference to sanitary sewage adapter disposition in survey region.
(3) judging quota weight is determined
In the assessment indicator system that many index is formed, due to the unbalancedness of things development itself, some index significance levels are higher, some index significance levels are then lower, in order to represent the influence degree of different index to evaluation result, need evaluation index to be weighted process, the size of weight coefficient indicates the potentially danger of index and the importance of its safety.This research is determined risk indicator weight with the method for analytical hierarchy process and Experts Group protocol, and indices weight is in table 3
Table 3 Risk Evaluation Model Weight value
(4) risk assessment
On the DEM data base of demonstration area, use D8 hydrology algorithm, divide and calculate sub basin, evaluate the degree of risk of each sub basin to the domestic major control section in demonstration area.Sub basin position as shown in Figure 2.
In index system, the Data Source of each factor is in table 4.
Table 4 evaluating data source instruction card
Calculate sub basin (1# sub basin) to divide certain that formed, it sees Fig. 1 to the risk class that phoenix paulownia bridge, Chi Jia hydrometric station, red flag pool dam, red flag pool bridge, maple south bridge, Luo Xing aquatic products, Wei Tang sell 13 sections such as fish bridge, democracy hydrometric station, Xia Dian mausoleum bridge, land Xie Tangbei, south, the oblique pool, land, plain boiled water Tang Qiao, Tai Pu river intake.1# calculates larger front 4 sections of sub basin impact, is Tai Pu river intake, Chi Jia hydrometric station, red flag pool dam, maple south bridge successively respectively.Binding analysis calculates sub basin position, 1# calculates the relative position of sub basin and 13 control sections: Tai Pu river intake is positioned at 1# and calculates sub basin, secondly Chi Jia hydrometric station is nearer, red flag pool dam again, democracy hydrometric station, Xia Dian mausoleum bridge, red flag pool bridge, maple south bridge are similar, and phoenix paulownia bridge, land Xie Tangbei, land Xie Tangnan, Luo Xing aquatic products, Wei Tang sells fish bridge, plain boiled water pool bridge is all distant; That is, generally, distance section is nearer, calculates the risk class of sub basin to it higher; But also there is exception, such as maple south bridge, illustrate that other factors impact in assessment indicator system except distance is obvious.
Identical with 1# sub basin, calculate different sub basin successively and M value is affected on target control section, carry out again sorting and just can obtain different sub basin affects risk sequence on this control section, thus can investigate different sub basin according to this sequence, reach object of tracing to the source.
Based on above-mentioned source tracing method, a kind of control section pollution risk degree methods of exhibiting can be built in GIS environment, be specially: based on the risk integrative score value M of each sub basin obtained according to claim 1 in GIS, the Show Color of self-defined colour band to each sub basin is played up, the pollution risk degree of different sub basin to target control section is shown with the color depth, namely M value is larger, and color is darker.As can be seen here, source tracing method of the present invention clearly reflects the size of each sub basin to monitoring section pollution risk.And in the actual application of this method, be also repeatedly traceable to the source of Environment Pollution Event exactly.Therefore, method of the present invention has important application value in actual water environment traces to the source field.
Claims (6)
1. a control section pollution risk source tracing method, is characterized in that, comprises the steps:
1) hydrological analysis is carried out in target basin, be divided into several sub basin;
2) according to the factor affecting quality of water environment, analytical hierarchy process is adopted to build pollutant comprehensive index system;
3) for step 2) in the comprehensive index system that obtains carry out affecting grade classification on each index, determine the highest and lowest threshold affecting grade, and tax point carried out to different brackets; Simultaneously according to the influence degree setting weight coefficient I of each index to target contaminant in water environment
i;
4) for target control section, on factual survey basis, all desired values of each sub basin relative to this control section are calculated respectively;
5) by step 4) each desired value of obtaining and step 3) in the threshold value affecting grade compare, if desired value falls within the scope of the highest and lowest threshold of a certain grade of impact, then divide the score P as this index using the tax that this grade is preset
i;
6) for target control section, carry out comprehensive evaluation according to index score and weight coefficient, obtain the risk integrative score value M of each sub basin to control section, computing formula is
in formula, n is index number in comprehensive index system;
7) using the risk integrative score value M of each sub basin as judgement this sub basin to the foundation of target control section pollution effect degree, M value size and influence degree positive correlation, thus determine that different sub basin affects the probability of this target control section, reach object of tracing to the source.
2. control section pollution risk source tracing method as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that, described pollutant is COD, NH
3in-N, TN and TP any one.
3. control section pollution risk source tracing method as claimed in claim 1, it is characterized in that, index in described comprehensive index system comprises: the Dominant Industry residing for sub basin Nei Dian source emission enterprise, point source quantity of wastewater effluent in sub basin, the water quality complexity of point source sewage effluent in sub basin, the technological level of sub basin Nei Dian source emission enterprise, nitrogen application intensity in sub basin, phosphate fertilizer intensity in sub basin, livestock and poultry cultivation quantity in sub basin, sanitary sewage adapter rate in sub basin, target monitoring control of section classification, sub basin is to the river course of target monitoring section along journey distance, target monitoring section water quality, the target water quality of sub basin location water environmental function zone, target monitoring section flow, described target contaminant is COD, NH
3in-N, TN, TP any one.
4. control section pollution risk source tracing method as claimed in claim 3, it is characterized in that, the tax affecting grade classification and each grade that in described comprehensive index system, each index is carried out divides as shown in the table:
Wherein in sub basin, the concrete judgment criteria of the water quality complexity of point source sewage effluent is:
Complicated: pollutant type number >=3; Or only need predict water quality parameter number >=10 of its concentration containing 2 pollutants;
Medium: pollutant type number=the 2 and water quality parameter number < 10 of its concentration need be predicted; Or only need predict water quality parameter number >=7 of its concentration containing 1 pollutant;
Simple: pollutant type number=1 and water quality parameter number < 7 of its concentration need be predicted.
5. control section pollution risk source tracing method as claimed in claim 4, it is characterized in that, in described comprehensive index system, the weight coefficient of each index is as shown in the table:
6. a control section pollution risk degree methods of exhibiting, it is characterized in that, based on the risk integrative score value M of each sub basin obtained according to claim 1 in GIS, the Show Color of self-defined colour band to each sub basin is played up, and shows the pollution risk degree of different sub basin to target control section with the color depth.
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| CN114066037A (en) * | 2021-11-10 | 2022-02-18 | 北京师范大学 | Drainage basin pollution source tracing prediction method and device based on artificial intelligence |
| CN114595964A (en) * | 2022-03-08 | 2022-06-07 | 中国环境科学研究院 | Surface water section data processing method, condition access method and related device |
| CN114595964B (en) * | 2022-03-08 | 2022-10-28 | 中国环境科学研究院 | Surface water section data processing method, condition access method and related device |
| CN117151557A (en) * | 2023-11-01 | 2023-12-01 | 甘肃蓝曦环保科技有限公司 | Quality monitoring method and system based on industrial wastewater monitoring data |
| CN117151557B (en) * | 2023-11-01 | 2024-01-09 | 甘肃蓝曦环保科技有限公司 | Quality monitoring method and system based on industrial wastewater monitoring data |
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