CN114742464A - Method for constructing alpine grassland ecological system health assessment and early warning platform - Google Patents
Method for constructing alpine grassland ecological system health assessment and early warning platform Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for constructing a alpine grassland ecological system health assessment and early warning platform, which comprises the following steps: evaluating the health of a fragile ecosystem of a high-cold grassland; constructing future scenes of a fragile ecosystem of a high-cold grassland and simulating main ecological elements; and constructing a health assessment and early warning platform of the fragile alpine grassland ecological system of the alpine grassland. The invention realizes the health assessment and early warning of the ecological system, thereby providing scientific and reasonable decision support to make targeted precise intervention measures, and leading the overall scheme and the countermeasure measures of the comprehensive ecological environment management to be more scientific, regionalized and specific.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to an ecosystem technology, in particular to a construction method of a health assessment and early warning platform of a typical fragile alpine grassland ecosystem.
Background
Different regions have respective unique ecological characteristics and main ecological environment problems, and how to scientifically screen out early warning indexes of typical fragile ecological systems in the regions and accurately judge the threshold values is a main problem faced by safety early warning of the ecological systems in the regions at present.
At present, a great deal of research is carried out at home and abroad on the basic principle and method of ecological safety early warning, the ecological system health concept and evaluation method, the risk evaluation application of the ecological system, the early warning characteristic and the like, the trend of multidisciplinary intersection is presented, and contents such as ecological system service modeling, an ecological compensation system, an ecological red line and the like are added. However, the difference between the internal structure and the process of different ecosystems is large, so that the difference between the evaluation mode and the evaluation system is large, and the problems of difficult popularization and difficult copying exist generally. In addition, in the evaluation of the ecosystem, certain divergence exists in index selection and quantization and weight assignment, and the problems of strong subjectivity, complex index system and the like exist, so that the research result from theory to application is difficult to realize.
The south-China alpine grassland is one of the most typical fragile ecosystems in Gansu, is also an important water source supply area of the yellow river and an important branch origination area of the Yangtze river, the Liaoning natural grassland is a huge natural barrier for protecting the ecological safety of the yellow river and the Yangtze river drainage basin, and the natural grassland is 2.73 km2 and occupies about 70 percent of the total land area. In recent years, the deterioration trend of the original ecological environment of the alpine grasses in the south of the Yangtze province is restrained to a certain extent through the implementation of a plurality of grassland ecological protection and construction key projects and policy measures such as natural grassland pastoral herb return project, grassland rat damage comprehensive prevention project, desertification grassland (black soil beach) comprehensive treatment project, grassland reward supplement policy and the like. However, the ecological stubborn disease of degeneration of alpine grassland in south-south China is not completely cured, the livestock overloading rate is close to 20%, the problem of unbalance of the grassland and the livestock is still outstanding, and even the degeneration problems mainly marked by grassland desertification, black soil beaches, water and soil loss, wetland resource atrophy, biological diversity reduction and the like occur. The water source conservation and carbon sink functions of the original ecological system of the alpine herb in south China are seriously weakened, and the implementation of the important strategy which can directly influence the upstream ecological protection and high-quality development of the yellow river basin is possible. Therefore, research on health evaluation and early warning technology research and demonstration of a vulnerable ecosystem of a south-south alpine grassland needs to be carried out urgently, prejudgment is made on reverse succession and degradation of the ecosystem, risk early warning is issued in advance, a health evaluation and early warning platform of the ecosystem is constructed, and scientific support is provided for protection management of a typical vulnerable ecosystem of Gansu and establishment of a targeted intervention measure.
In the past, a large amount of research is carried out on the construction method of the alpine grassland ecosystem health assessment and early warning platform, but the research field related to the subject of ecosystem health research is wide, the content is more, factors influencing the maintenance and development of the ecosystem and the interrelation of the factors are complex, and the internal structure and the process difference of different ecosystems are large. Most of the existing researches on the health of the ecological system focus on the current analysis, the change trend and early warning research of the ecological system are weak, the ecological system health assessment and risk early warning are still in the experimental and searching stages, and a set of mature methods are not formed. The method for evaluating the health of the existing ecological system and the early warning technology are systematically combed, and the main technical methods, intellectual property rights and technical standards related to the health evaluation and risk early warning of the existing ecological system are comprehensively analyzed, so that the problems of the technologies and standards still exist in the application of the vulnerable ecological system in Gansu province: the evaluation modes and evaluation systems of different ecosystems have great differences. Although many achievements exist in the aspects of related patent authorization and standard establishment, the problems of difficult popularization and difficult copying exist generally; from the achievement, the evaluation on the health of the ecological system has strong subjectivity and is difficult to continuously track and predict; there is a certain divergence in the selection and quantization of the indexes and the assignment of the weights. Under the background of dual influences of climate change and human activities, for Gannan alpine grassland and fragile ecological systems, the advantages of related technologies and intellectual property rights should be fully drawn, the health evaluation technology systems of the ecological systems are perfected, a distributed risk early warning model and a comprehensive prediction early warning system are developed, and the active evaluation and early warning of the health level of the typical fragile ecological system in Gansu province are real technical requirements which need to be solved urgently in the process of optimizing and improving the intelligent management and sustainable development of the regional ecological system.
The overloading rate of the livestock in the alpine grassland of south China is close to 20%, the unbalance problem of the livestock is still outstanding, and even the degradation problems of desertification of the grassland, black soil beaches, water and soil loss, wetland resource atrophy, reduction of biodiversity and the like serving as main marks occur. Therefore, aiming at the sensitivity and instability of the vulnerable ecosystem of the Gannan alpine grassland and the current and future new ecological environment problems, the development of the research of the health evaluation and prediction early warning system of the vulnerable ecosystem is urgently needed, the system and balance relationship among the service functions of the ecosystem is recognized, the evolution process reappearance, the current situation evaluation, the change prediction and the ecological early warning simulator of the typical vulnerable ecosystem are researched and developed, the prediction is made on the reverse succession and the degradation of the ecosystem, the risk alarm is issued in advance, the space-time range and the hazard degree of the abnormal health condition are predicted, the health evaluation and the early warning of the ecosystem are realized, scientific and reasonable decision support is provided to make targeted and accurate intervention measures, and the overall scheme and the measures of comprehensive ecological environment management are more scientific, regionalized and specified.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention mainly aims to provide a construction method of a typical fragile alpine grassland ecological system health assessment and early warning platform, which is used for carrying out health assessment and early warning research and judgment on the fragile ecological system of the alpine grassland in China, forming an ecological system change prediction early warning system, researching and developing a network-based early warning platform, realizing dynamic evolution of key elements of the fragile ecological system, visualization of multi-dimensional early warning information, automatic identification of disasters and risks of the ecological system in long, medium and short periods and issuing of warnings, providing theoretical basis for restoration and management of the typical fragile ecological system in mountainous regions in China, and promoting ecological civilization construction and sustainable development in the alpine mountainous regions in China.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows: a method for constructing a health assessment and early warning platform of a alpine grassland ecological system comprises the following steps: evaluating the health of a fragile ecosystem of a high-cold grassland; constructing future scenes of a fragile ecosystem of a high-cold grassland and simulating main ecological elements; and constructing a health assessment and early warning platform of the fragile alpine grassland ecological system of the alpine grassland.
Further, the alpine grassland fragile ecosystem health assessment comprises: based on data such as topography, climate, soil, vegetation, land utilization conditions, social economy and the like of the south-south alpine grassland and data such as field sample plot investigation, positioning monitoring and the like, the expert classifier criteria of the alpine grassland are researched by using software such as ArcGIS and ENVI, and the space-time distribution and evolution characteristics of the ecosystem are contrastively analyzed; based on scientific, representative, operability and systematic principles, key risk factors are selected from four aspects of ecological system structure, function, environment and service as indexes for ecological system health risk diagnosis, a comprehensive index method and an efficacy coefficient method are adopted to construct a Gannan alpine grassland ecological system health diagnosis mode and a health risk discrimination model, and the spatial distribution current situation and the dynamic change situation of the health risk of a typical vulnerable ecological system in Gansu in recent years are systematically analyzed; aiming at the natural environment, social economy and ecological conditions of an original ecological system of alpine grasses in Gannan, selecting human influence risk sources such as water and soil loss, grassland degradation, rat damage, soil erosion, transition grazing and grazing bearing capacity by utilizing multivariate data, evaluating the influence of different risk sources on the ecological system by adopting a probability loss degree model, revealing the main risk sources of the health risk of the ecological system, and determining the importance degree and the threshold value of each risk source; the influence of human activities and climate change on the health of the ecosystem is quantified, and key driving factors of the health risk of the ecosystem are clarified.
Furthermore, the construction and the simulation of the main ecological elements of the fragile ecosystem of alpine grassland for the future situation comprise:
the future climate and human activity scenes of a typical fragile ecological area are constructed: according to the social and economic development and greenhouse gas emission situations, a nested global climate mode-a high-resolution regional climate mode is driven, and a high-resolution future climate situation of a typical ecological fragile area is constructed; the method comprises the steps of taking a global weather forecast mode as a background field, utilizing a WRF mode to dynamically reduce the scale and fusing real-time weather data to generate high-resolution medium-term and short-term weather scenes in a protected area, and integrating weather forecast methods of three scales to form a construction technology of long, medium and short-term weather scenes in an ecologically vulnerable area; based on the human activities and the current situation of an ecosystem in a typical fragile ecological area, judging corresponding development types and levels of human activity intensity by utilizing a big data analysis technology, constructing a quantitative model of the constraint of natural conditions on the human activity development and the influence of the human activities on ground surface basic elements, and forming the climate change and human activity situations of the fragile ecological area; research on evolution mechanism of typical fragile ecosystem: ground and remote sensing monitoring are carried out aiming at a alpine grassland ecological system, and a basic data set for mechanism exploration, scale effect analysis and ecological system early warning model construction is formed through measures such as field observation investigation, remote sensing data analysis, historical document arrangement, comparative analysis research, data mining and data assimilation; on the basis, according to the earth surface condition and the human activity scene, the development trend of the ecological system and the main control factors thereof is simulated and analyzed by utilizing the constructed long-term climate scene, and the state of the ecological system and the potential threats faced by the service are identified; simulating the occurrence and development of main control factors of the ecological system and real-time system monitoring by using the medium-term meteorological scene, and estimating seasonal scale ecological environment deterioration and disaster risks; the method comprises the steps of predicting sudden disasters such as land degradation, water and soil loss, grassland fire and the like induced by extreme weather by using real-time system monitoring and short-term weather forecast; the method realizes the space-time simulation prediction of key elements of the long, medium and short term typical fragile ecosystem based on a process model; an ecological bearing capacity evaluation index system based on the health of an ecological system is constructed by adopting a spatial state evaluation method on the basis of historical background and current situation analysis, each index weight is determined by utilizing an analytic hierarchy process, the ecological elasticity, the resource bearing index and the social influence in a region are evaluated in a grading way, the ecological bearing capacity index in the region is quantized, the spatial characteristics of the ecological bearing capacity index are determined, and the regional water-carbon balance relation under the influence of the resource utilization and the protection strategy of the alpine steppe of south of China is clarified; aiming at an ecological hydrological process-ecological system service coupling dynamic model developed by an ecological system, establishing an ecological system water-soil-gas-biological element space-time dynamic simulation prediction technology based on physical process coupling by combining constructed long, medium and short term climate weather and human activity scenes, and clarifying the evolution trend and main control factors of the ecological system service function; typical fragile ecosystem change early warning model and algorithm: selecting the most representative and sensitive factors of the ecological environment condition and the ecological system service in the fragile area by using an entropy method; taking health risks and disasters of an ecological system as key points, based on historical disaster situation data and basic ecological environment data, utilizing machine learning to clarify the relation between a disaster situation index and natural environment and human interference factors, and identifying main disaster causing factors; developing a multidimensional and multi-time span early warning system and an early warning model based on ecosystem monitoring and physical process simulation, such as the quality of a vulnerable area ecosystem, ecosystem service, ecological disasters and the like, synthesizing sensitive factors and main disaster causing factors of the ecosystem to form early warning indexes, determining the types and weights of the indexes, and establishing a risk early warning index system; determining a threshold value of an early warning index according to ecological function positioning, an environmental quality standard and a disaster risk level, setting a corresponding warning line, and setting an early warning mode; on the basis of system monitoring, model simulation and integrated analysis, establishing an early warning level according to an early warning index and a warning line, and judging the disaster risk degree of the ecological system; and (3) integrating the early warning indexes, the index warning lines, the early warning modes and the early warning levels, and constructing a typical fragile ecosystem change early warning system based on an ecological vulnerability evaluation conceptual model framework.
Furthermore, the construction of the fragile alpine grassland ecological system health assessment and early warning platform for alpine grasslands comprises the following steps: on the basis of potential risk identification and health evaluation index system determination of a alpine grassy original ecological system, establishing a typical ecological problem evaluation model of a research area, positioning according to national relevant standards and regional ecological functions, respectively setting respective early warning indexes, early warning values and warning lines aiming at typical ecological problems, and establishing a distributed early warning model based on objects; in a future situation, according to the medium-long term prediction result of the salient ecological problems of the fragile ecological system, warning condition judgment is carried out by using a warning model, and the time, the place and the frequency of different warning conditions of each ecological problem are identified; the system overall framework follows a J2EE architecture and a network service development mode, and structurally adopts a browser/server development architecture mode; the system consists of 5 layers including a user layer, an application service layer, a service supporting layer, a data resource layer and a basic platform layer, and has the main functions of monitoring the comprehensive management of data, the comprehensive service of early warning information and the prediction and early warning of future situations; the system design takes the prediction and early warning of the potential health risks of the fragile ecosystem of the alpine grassland in the south of China as a guide, comprehensively utilizes the technologies such as WebGIS, space database management, space data visualization, problem-oriented programming framework, future scene prediction and simulation technology, system integration and the like, and constructs a network-based early warning platform with the characteristics of universality, multifunctionality, expandability, practicability and the like; and integrating long-term and short-term climate situation and human activity situation databases, basic ecological environment databases, key ecological problem monitoring and health evaluation indexes in the fragile ecological system and a distributed early warning model construction technology, and constructing a network-based early warning platform of the fragile ecological system of the southeast alpine grassland.
The invention has the advantages that:
aiming at the sensitivity and instability of a fragile ecosystem of a high and cold grassland and the current and future new ecological environment problems, the invention needs to develop health assessment and prediction early warning system research of the fragile ecosystem, recognize the system and balance relationship among the service functions of the ecosystem, research and develop typical evolution process reappearance, current situation assessment, change prediction and ecological early warning simulator of the fragile ecosystem, make prejudgment on the reverse succession and degradation of the ecosystem, issue a risk alarm in advance, predict the space-time range and the hazard degree of abnormal health conditions, realize the health assessment and early warning of the ecosystem, provide scientific and reasonable decision support to make targeted precise intervention measures, and enable the overall scheme and the strategy of comprehensive ecological environment management to be more scientific, regionalized and specific.
In addition to the objects, features and advantages described above, other objects, features and advantages of the present invention are also provided. The present invention will be described in further detail below with reference to the drawings.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this application, illustrate embodiments of the invention and, together with the description, serve to explain the invention and not to limit the invention.
FIG. 1 is a frame diagram of the construction method of the alpine grassland ecological system health assessment and early warning platform of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention is described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the invention and are not intended to limit the invention.
Referring to fig. 1, a specific experimental scheme of a typical fragile alpine grassland ecosystem health assessment and early warning platform construction method:
1. health assessment of fragile ecological system of Gannan alpine grassland
Firstly, on the basis of data such as terrain, climate, soil, vegetation, land utilization conditions, socioeconomic and the like of the alpine grassland in the south of. Secondly, based on scientific, representative, operability and systematic principles, key risk factors are selected from four aspects of ecological system structure, function, environment and service to serve as indexes of ecological system health risk diagnosis, a Gannan alpine grassland ecological system health diagnosis mode and a health risk discrimination model are constructed by adopting a comprehensive index method and an efficacy coefficient method, and the current situation of spatial distribution and the dynamic change situation of health risks of typical vulnerable ecological systems in Gansu in recent years are systematically analyzed. Finally, aiming at the natural environment, social economy and ecological conditions of the original ecological system of the alpine grasses in the south of the Gannan province, selecting human influence risk sources such as water and soil loss, grassland degradation (black beach), rat damage, soil erosion, transition grazing and grazing bearing capacity and the like by utilizing multivariate data, evaluating the influence of different risk sources on the ecological system by adopting a probability loss degree model, revealing the main risk sources of the health risk of the ecological system, and determining the importance degree and the threshold value of each risk source; the influence of human activities and climate change on the health of the ecosystem is quantified, and key driving factors of the health risk of the ecosystem are clarified.
On the basis of identifying the temporal-spatial change characteristics and the potential risks of the fragile ecosystem of the southeast south alpine grassland, according to the ecological functions and the characteristics of fragility of the southeast grassland and according to the mutual supplement and improvement principle among all indexes, a set of comprehensive evaluation health evaluation indexes comprising resistance, restoring force/elasticity, vitality, tissue strength, productivity, biological diversity, integrity, buffering capacity, carbon sink capacity, water conservation capacity, biological supply capacity and the like are selected preliminarily. On the basis of a currently common biological model for evaluating the health of a vitality-organization-elasticity (VOR) ecological system, the influence of the process change of the ecological system on the ecological function is reflected by introducing a system component of an ecological service function, the model construction and debugging are completed, and a method is provided for comprehensively reflecting and quantifying the current health situation of the original ecological system of the Gannan alpine grasses. In order to fully consider the influence of human activities (particularly the development of agriculture and animal husbandry) and rat damage on the health and stability of the ecological system of the southeast alpine grassland, a pressure-state-response (PSR) model of the southeast grassland area is constructed and debugged, and the influence of climate change, human activities and environmental stress on the evolution rule of the health condition of the ecological system of the southeast grassland is comprehensively considered, so that the health status level and the maintenance mechanism of the ecological system of the southeast grassland are searched.
2. Construction of south-south alpine-grassland fragile ecosystem future scene and simulation of main ecological elements
The future climate and human activity scenes of a typical fragile ecological area are constructed: driving a nested Global Climate Mode (GCM) -high-resolution Regional Climate Mode (RCM) according to social and economic development and greenhouse gas emission scenarios to construct a high-resolution future climate scenario of a typical ecological vulnerable area; taking a global weather forecasting model (GFS) as a background field, utilizing the WRF model to dynamically reduce the scale and fuse real-time weather data to generate high-resolution medium-term (month-to-year) and short-term (day-to-week) weather scenes in a protected area; the climate and weather forecasting methods of three scales are integrated to form a long, medium and short term climate and weather scene construction technology in the ecological fragile area. Based on human activities and ecosystem current situations in a typical fragile ecological area, a big data analysis technology is utilized to judge corresponding development types and human activity intensity levels, a quantitative model of the constraint of natural conditions (climate and terrain) on the human activity development and the influence of human activities on ground surface basic elements (land utilization structure, hydrological connectivity and the like) is constructed, and the climate change and human activity situations in the fragile ecological area are formed.
Research on evolution mechanism of typical fragile ecosystem: ground and remote sensing monitoring is carried out aiming at a Gannan alpine grassland ecological system, and a basic data set for mechanism exploration, scale effect analysis and ecological system early warning model construction is formed through measures such as field observation and investigation, remote sensing data analysis, historical document arrangement, comparative analysis and research, data mining and data assimilation. On the basis, according to the earth surface condition and the human activity scene, the development trend of the ecological system and the main control factors thereof is simulated and analyzed by utilizing the constructed long-term (more than 10 years) climate scene, and the state of the ecological system and the potential threats faced by the service are identified; simulating the occurrence and development of the main control factors of the ecological system and real-time system monitoring by using the medium-term meteorological scene, and estimating seasonal scale ecological environment deterioration and disaster risks; the method comprises the following steps of (1) predicting sudden disasters such as land degradation, water and soil loss, grassland fire and the like induced by extreme weather (strong rainfall, strong wind, drought and the like) by utilizing real-time system monitoring and short-term weather forecast; the method realizes the space-time simulation prediction of key elements of the typical fragile ecosystem in long, medium and short periods based on a process model, and develops the evolution mechanism research of the ecosystem.
By adopting a spatial state evaluation method, on the basis of historical background and current situation analysis, an ecological bearing capacity evaluation index system based on ecological system health is constructed, an analytic hierarchy process is utilized to determine each index weight, regional ecological elasticity, resource bearing index and social influence are evaluated in a grading manner, regional ecological bearing capacity index is quantized, spatial characteristics of the regional ecological bearing capacity index are determined, and regional water-carbon balance relation under the influence of Gannan alpine grassland resource utilization and protection strategies (grazing, grazing forbidding and the like) is clarified. On the basis of a clear ecosystem evolution mechanism, an ecosystem water-soil-gas-generating element space-time dynamic simulation prediction technology based on physical process coupling is further established by aiming at an ecosystem development ecological hydrological process-ecosystem service coupling dynamic model and combining the constructed long-term, medium-term and short-term climate weather and human activity scenes, and the evolution trend and the main control factors of ecosystem service functions are clarified.
Typical vulnerable ecosystem change early warning model and algorithm: selecting the most representative and sensitive factors of the ecological environment condition and the ecological system service in the fragile area by using an entropy method; taking health risks and disasters of an ecological system as key points, based on historical disaster situation data and basic ecological environment data, utilizing machine learning to clarify the relation between a disaster situation index and natural environment and human interference factors, and identifying main disaster causing factors; and researching and developing a multidimensional and multi-time span early warning system and an early warning model based on ecosystem monitoring and physical process simulation, such as the quality of an ecosystem, ecosystem service, ecological disasters and the like, synthesizing sensitive factors and main disaster causing factors of the ecosystem to form early warning indexes, determining the types (positive or negative evolution) and the weights of the indexes, and establishing a risk early warning index system. According to ecological function positioning, environmental quality standards and disaster risk levels, determining a threshold value of an early warning index, setting a corresponding warning line, and setting an early warning mode (such as vulnerability index, catastrophe risk, deterioration trend, deterioration speed and the like); on the basis of system monitoring, model simulation and integrated analysis, establishing early warning levels (blue, yellow, orange and red) according to early warning indexes and warning lines, and judging the disaster risk degree of the ecological system; and (3) comprehensively early warning indexes, index warning lines, early warning modes and early warning levels, and constructing a typical fragile ecosystem change early warning system based on a sensitivity-resilience-pressure degree ecological vulnerability evaluation conceptual model framework. And in aspects of system fusion, database construction, GIS technology integration and the like, an object-based distributed early warning model and an object-based distributed early warning algorithm are researched and developed.
3. Health assessment and early warning platform construction for fragile alpine grassland ecological system of south China alpine grassland
On the basis of potential risk identification and health assessment index system determination of an original ecological system of alpine-alpine grasses in Gannan, a typical ecological problem (such as grassland desertification, water and soil loss, water conservation and the like) assessment model of a research area is established, positioning is carried out according to national relevant standards and regional ecological functions, respective early warning indexes, early warning values and warning lines are set for the typical ecological problems respectively, and an object-based distributed early warning model is established. In the future situation, according to the medium-long term prediction result of the salient ecological problems of the fragile ecological system, the warning model is used for judging the warning situations, the time, the place and the frequency of the different warning situations of the ecological problems are identified, and medium-long term prediction and early warning of the ecological problems of the south-south grassland are realized.
The system overall framework follows the J2EE architecture and the web service development mode, and structurally adopts the development architecture mode of a browser/server (B/S). The system consists of 5 layers including a user layer, an application service layer, a service supporting layer, a data resource layer and a basic platform layer, and has the main functions of monitoring the comprehensive management of data, the comprehensive service of early warning information and the prediction and early warning of future situations. The system design takes the forecasting and early warning of the potential health risks of the fragile ecosystem of the alpine steppe as a guide, technologies such as WebGIS, spatial database management, spatial data visualization, problem-oriented programming framework, future scene forecasting and simulation technology, system integration and the like are comprehensively applied, and a network-based early warning platform with the characteristics of universality, multifunctionality, expandability, practicability and the like is constructed. The method integrates long-term and short-term climate situation and human activity situation databases, basic ecological environment databases and key ecological problem monitoring and health assessment indexes in the fragile ecological system and a distributed early warning model construction technology, builds a south-south alpine grassland fragile ecological system network base early warning platform, and realizes long-term and short-term prediction and analysis of meteorological data, long-term prediction of ecological environment space-time evolution, result analysis, graphic display and alarm judgment of south-south alpine grassland.
The above description is only for the purpose of illustrating the preferred embodiments of the present invention and is not to be construed as limiting the invention, and any modifications, equivalents, improvements and the like that fall within the spirit and principle of the present invention are intended to be included therein.
Claims (4)
1. A method for constructing a health assessment and early warning platform of a alpine grassland ecological system is characterized by comprising the following steps: evaluating the health of a fragile ecosystem of a high-cold grassland; constructing future scenes of a fragile ecosystem of a high-cold grassland and simulating main ecological elements; and constructing a health assessment and early warning platform of the fragile alpine grassland ecological system of the alpine grassland.
2. The alpine grassland ecosystem health assessment and early warning platform construction method according to claim 1, wherein the alpine grassland fragile ecosystem health assessment comprises: based on data such as terrain, climate, soil, vegetation, land utilization condition, social economy and the like of the alpine grassland of the south-south China and data such as field sample plot investigation, positioning monitoring and the like, the expert classifier criteria of the alpine grassland are researched by utilizing software such as ArcGIS and ENVI, and the space-time distribution and evolution characteristics of the ecosystem are contrastively analyzed; based on scientific, representative, operable and systematic principles, key risk factors are selected from four aspects of ecological system structure, function, environment and service to serve as indexes of ecological system health risk diagnosis, a comprehensive index method and an efficacy coefficient method are adopted to construct a Gannan alpine grassland ecological system health diagnosis mode and a health risk discrimination model, and the system analyzes the space distribution status and the dynamic change condition of the health risk of a typical vulnerable ecological system in Gansu in recent years; aiming at the natural environment, social economy and ecological conditions of an original ecological system of alpine grasses in Gannan, selecting human influence risk sources such as water and soil loss, grassland degradation, rat damage, soil erosion, transition grazing and grazing bearing capacity by utilizing multivariate data, evaluating the influence of different risk sources on the ecological system by adopting a probability loss degree model, revealing the main risk sources of the health risk of the ecological system, and determining the importance degree and the threshold value of each risk source; the influence of human activities and climate change on the health of the ecosystem is quantified, and key driving factors of the health risk of the ecosystem are clarified.
3. The method for constructing the health assessment and early warning platform of alpine grassland ecosystem, according to claim 1, wherein the construction of the fragile ecosystem of alpine grassland future situation and the simulation of the main ecological elements comprise: the future climate and human activity scenes of a typical fragile ecological area are constructed: according to the social and economic development and greenhouse gas emission situations, a nested global climate mode-a high-resolution regional climate mode is driven, and a high-resolution future climate situation of a typical ecological fragile area is constructed; taking a global weather forecast mode as a background field, utilizing a WRF mode power to reduce the scale and fusing real-time weather data to generate high-resolution medium-term and short-term weather scenes in a protected area, and integrating three scales of weather forecast methods to form a long-term, medium-term and short-term weather scene construction technology in an ecological fragile area; based on human activities and the current situation of an ecosystem in a typical fragile ecological area, judging corresponding development types and human activity intensity levels by utilizing a big data analysis technology, constructing a constraint of natural conditions on human activity development and a quantitative model of influence of the human activities on basic elements of the earth surface, and forming climate change and human activity scenes in the fragile ecological area; research on evolution mechanism of typical fragile ecosystem: ground and remote sensing monitoring is carried out aiming at a alpine grassland ecological system, and a basic data set for mechanism exploration, scale effect analysis and ecological system early warning model construction is formed through measures such as field observation investigation, remote sensing data analysis, historical document arrangement, comparative analysis research, data mining and data assimilation; on the basis, according to the earth surface condition and the human activity scene, the development trend of the ecological system and the main control factors thereof is simulated and analyzed by utilizing the constructed long-term climate scene, and the state of the ecological system and the potential threats faced by the service are identified; simulating the occurrence and development of the main control factors of the ecological system and real-time system monitoring by using the medium-term meteorological scene, and estimating seasonal scale ecological environment deterioration and disaster risks; forecasting sudden disasters such as land degradation, water and soil loss, grassland fire and the like induced by extreme weather by using real-time system monitoring and short-term weather forecast; the method realizes the space-time simulation prediction of key elements of the long, medium and short term typical fragile ecosystem based on a process model; an ecological bearing capacity evaluation index system based on the health of an ecological system is constructed on the basis of historical background and current situation analysis by adopting a spatial state evaluation method, each index weight is determined by utilizing an analytic hierarchy process, the ecological elasticity, the resource bearing index and the social influence of a region are evaluated in a grading way, the ecological bearing capacity index of the region is quantized, the spatial characteristics of the regional ecological bearing capacity index are determined, and the regional water-carbon balance relation under the influence of the resource utilization and the protection strategy of the alpine steppe of south China is clarified; aiming at an ecological hydrological process-ecological system service coupling dynamic model developed by an ecological system, establishing an ecological system water-soil-gas-biological element space-time dynamic simulation prediction technology based on physical process coupling by combining constructed long, medium and short term climate weather and human activity scenes, and clarifying the evolution trend and main control factors of the ecological system service function; typical fragile ecosystem change early warning model and algorithm: selecting the most representative and sensitive factors of the ecological environment condition and the ecological system service in the fragile area by using an entropy method; taking health risks and disasters of an ecological system as key points, based on historical disaster situation data and basic ecological environment data, utilizing machine learning to clarify the relation between a disaster situation index and natural environment and human interference factors, and identifying main disaster causing factors; developing a multidimensional and multi-time span early warning system and an early warning model based on ecosystem monitoring and physical process simulation, such as the quality of a vulnerable area ecosystem, ecosystem service, ecological disasters and the like, synthesizing sensitive factors and main disaster causing factors of the ecosystem to form early warning indexes, determining the types and weights of the indexes, and establishing a risk early warning index system; determining a threshold value of an early warning index according to ecological function positioning, an environmental quality standard and a disaster risk level, setting a corresponding warning line, and setting an early warning mode; on the basis of system monitoring, model simulation and integrated analysis, establishing an early warning level according to an early warning index and a warning line, and judging the disaster risk degree of the ecological system; and (3) integrating the early warning indexes, the index warning lines, the early warning modes and the early warning levels, and constructing a typical fragile ecosystem change early warning system based on an ecological vulnerability evaluation conceptual model framework.
4. The alpine grassland ecosystem health assessment and early warning platform construction method according to claim 1, wherein the alpine grassland fragile alpine grassland ecosystem health assessment and early warning platform construction comprises: on the basis of potential risk identification and health evaluation index system determination of a alpine grassy original ecological system, establishing a typical ecological problem evaluation model of a research area, positioning according to national relevant standards and regional ecological functions, respectively setting respective early warning indexes, early warning values and warning lines aiming at typical ecological problems, and establishing a distributed early warning model based on objects; in the future situation, according to the medium-long term prediction result of the vulnerable ecological system highlighting ecological problems, warning condition judgment is carried out by using a warning model, and the time, the place and the frequency of different warning conditions of each ecological problem are identified; the system overall framework follows a J2EE architecture and a network service development mode, and structurally adopts a browser/server development architecture mode; the system consists of 5 layers including a user layer, an application service layer, a service supporting layer, a data resource layer and a basic platform layer, and has the main functions of monitoring the comprehensive management of data, the comprehensive service of early warning information and the prediction and early warning of future situations; the system design takes the prediction and early warning of the potential health risks of the fragile ecosystem of the alpine grassland in the south of China as a guide, comprehensively utilizes the technologies such as WebGIS, space database management, space data visualization, problem-oriented programming framework, future scene prediction and simulation technology, system integration and the like, and constructs a network-based early warning platform with the characteristics of universality, multifunctionality, expandability, practicability and the like; and integrating long-term and short-term climate situation and human activity situation databases, basic ecological environment databases, key ecological problem monitoring and health evaluation indexes in the fragile ecological system and a distributed early warning model construction technology, and constructing a network-based early warning platform of the fragile ecological system of the southeast alpine grassland.
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| CN115983522A (en) * | 2022-11-10 | 2023-04-18 | 东南大学 | Rural habitat quality evaluation and prediction method |
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