CN105335560B - Photovoltaic generation power fluctuation and its Automatic Generation Control stand-by requirement calculation method - Google Patents
Photovoltaic generation power fluctuation and its Automatic Generation Control stand-by requirement calculation method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention belongs to parallel network power generation technology fields, more particularly to a kind of photovoltaic generation power fluctuation and its Automatic Generation Control stand-by requirement calculation method based on autoregression model, it is emulated to obtain the power output of photovoltaic array using meteorological data, and goes out force data using photovoltaic array and the photovoltaic power generation wave characteristic of different time scales and different spaces scale is analyzed；It is proposed that going out force data to photovoltaic power generation using autoregression model carries out spectrum analysis, obtains the material time scale that photovoltaic power generation goes out fluctuation；The component of material time scale is separated using the method for average is rolled, it demonstrates and is worked well using its probability distribution of t fitting of distribution, and exemplary AGC capacity requirement is calculated, concrete operation method is provided for quantitative analysis photovoltaic power generation fluctuation, to intermittent new energy consumption is promoted, guarantee that the research of power network safety operation has certain reference significance.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to parallel network power generation technology field more particularly to a kind of photovoltaic power generation function based on autoregression model
Rate fluctuation and its Automatic Generation Control stand-by requirement calculation method.
Background technique
Current traditional fossil energy shortage status and develop low-carbon economy overall background under, solar energy power generating with
Its cleaning, feature renewable, reserves are very big, become one of the renewable energy industry that development prospect is most expected.Working as
Under the status of modern energy shortage, each state has all stepped up to develop the paces of photovoltaic, and Japan, which proposes, reaches the light of 28GW in the year two thousand twenty
Volt power generation total amount, European photovoltaic association propose " set for2020 " planning, and planning accomplishes business by photovoltaic power generation in the year two thousand twenty
Change competition.In China, by the end of the year 2013, the whole nation is accumulative to be incorporated into the power networks 19,420,000 kilowatts of Photovoltaic generation installed capacity.It expects
2015, the photovoltaic plant installed capacity in China was up to 10GW.
However, solar energy power generating is influenced by factors such as intensity of solar radiation, weather, environment temperatures, power output has
Very strong fluctuation will bring detrimental effect to the safety and stability of power grid.Study solar energy power generating power waves
Dynamic characteristic simultaneously rationally determines AGC (Automatic Generation Control) spare capacity, to intermittent new energy consumption is promoted, guarantees the peace of power grid
Row for the national games has important meaning.
Summary of the invention
For Accurate Analysis photovoltaic generation power fluctuation, the safety and stability of operation of power networks is improved, the present invention mentions
A kind of photovoltaic generation power fluctuation based on autoregression model and its Automatic Generation Control stand-by requirement calculation method, packet are gone out
It includes:
Step 1, the solar global irradiance that photovoltaic panel is calculated by acquisition meteorological data；
Step 2 calculates photovoltaic generation power according to the solar global irradiance of photovoltaic panel；
Step 3 obtains the Cumulative Distribution Function of photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity under different time scales according to weather data analysis；
Step 4, analyze photovoltaic array different location photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity data, obtain different time scales under and not
The Cumulative Distribution Function of photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity under isospace scale；
Step 5 carries out spectrum analysis to photovoltaic generation power sequence using autoregression model, finds out main week in sequence
Phase component；
Step 6 separates the wave component under material time scale using the rolling method of average, obtains and load amplitude
Sample the adjusting load component at each moment corresponding with the storage period；
Step 7, using probability density function, determine automatic generation control caused by large-scale photovoltaic power station access power grid
Spare capacity needs processed；
Step 8 is that the second power swing of grade is balanced by primary frequency modulation for time scale, for time second grade or more ruler
The power swing of degree then passes through adjusting unit output and is adjusted.
The calculation formula of the solar global irradiance of photovoltaic panel in the step 1 are as follows:
G=Gb cosθ+Gd(1+cosβ)/2+ρGh(1-cosβ)/2
In formula: G indicates the solar global irradiance of photovoltaic panel, unit W/m2；GhFor the solar global irradiance on horizontal plane, unit W/m2；
Gb、GdRespectively direct irradiation level and scattering irradiance, unit W/m2；ρ is ground surface reflectance, and β is that the installation of photovoltaic panel is inclined
Angle；Wherein, Gh=Gb cosθz+Gd, θ, θzThe respectively sunlight incidence angle that is incident on photovoltaic panel and horizontal plane.
The calculation formula of photovoltaic generation power in the step 2 are as follows:
Pmpp=UmppImpp
In formula, Pmpp、UmppAnd ImppRespectively maximum power point power, the maximum power point voltage of photovoltaic panel output
With maximum power point electric current, a, b, rs、vocFor the intermediate variable for calculating definition；Uoc、IscRespectively in current irradiation level and work
At a temperature of photovoltaic panel open-circuit voltage and short circuit current.
The method of average is rolled in the step 6 to roll by the forward and backward number of segment value to each data on photovoltaic power curve P
It is dynamic to be averaging, thus to obtain a smooth photovoltaic power curve Pr, calculate original power curve P and obtained smooth power output
Curve PrDifference, the wave component of relative time scale, calculation formula can be obtained are as follows:
In formula, PrThe power generating value of t at the time of to be obtained after rolling the method for average and smoothly contributing；PtFor original power curve
The power generating value of upper moment t；2M is to make to roll the average number for going out force data, depending on rolling average Period Length.
Probability density function is t location-scale distribution function in the step 7.
The beneficial effects of the present invention are: it is emulated to obtain the power output of photovoltaic array using meteorological data, and utilizes light
Photovoltaic array goes out force data and studies the photovoltaic power generation wave characteristic of different time scales and different spaces scale；It proposes to use
Autoregression model goes out force data to photovoltaic power generation and carries out spectrum analysis, obtains the material time scale that photovoltaic power generation goes out fluctuation；
The component of material time scale is separated using the method for average is rolled, is demonstrated using its probability distribution effect of t fitting of distribution
Well, and exemplary AGC capacity requirement is calculated, provides concrete operation method for quantitative analysis photovoltaic power generation fluctuation,
To intermittent new energy consumption is promoted, guarantee that the research of power network safety operation has certain reference significance.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is that photovoltaic generation power fluctuation and its Automatic Generation Control proposed by the present invention based on autoregression model are standby
With demand calculation method flow chart；
Fig. 2 is solar global irradiance curve；
Fig. 3 is photovoltaic generation power curve；
Fig. 4 is the Cumulative Distribution Function of photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity under 1min and 5min time scale；
Fig. 5 is that the photovoltaic array of different weather condition is contributed；
Fig. 6 is the Cumulative Distribution Function of solar global irradiance under 1min and 5min time scale, photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity；
Fig. 7 is the Cumulative Distribution Function of different location photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity under 1min scale；
Fig. 8 is the Cumulative Distribution Function of different location photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity under 5min scale；
Fig. 9 is the spectrum analysis of photovoltaic power output；
Figure 10 is the 5min wave component of photovoltaic power output；
Figure 11 is the probability-distribution function of 5min wave component；
Specific embodiment
With reference to the accompanying drawing, it elaborates to embodiment.
The photovoltaic generation power fluctuation and its Automatic Generation Control that the invention proposes a kind of based on autoregression model are standby
With demand calculation method, as shown in Figure 1, comprising:
Step 1, the solar global irradiance that photovoltaic panel is calculated by acquisition meteorological data；
Step 2 calculates photovoltaic generation power according to the solar global irradiance of photovoltaic panel；
Step 3 obtains the Cumulative Distribution Function of photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity under different time scales according to weather data analysis；
Step 4, analyze photovoltaic array different location photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity data, obtain different time scales under and not
The Cumulative Distribution Function of photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity under isospace scale；
Step 5 carries out spectrum analysis to photovoltaic generation power sequence using autoregression model, finds out main week in sequence
Phase component；
Step 6 separates the wave component under time scale using the rolling method of average, obtains and load amplitude samples
The adjusting load component at each moment corresponding with the storage period；
Step 7, using probability density function, determine automatic generation control caused by large-scale photovoltaic power station access power grid
Spare capacity needs processed；
Step 8 is that the second power swing of grade is balanced by primary frequency modulation for time scale, for time second grade or more ruler
The power swing of degree then passes through adjusting unit output and is adjusted.
For step 1, the present embodiment is using the mountain U.S. Ya Li that state OASIS (deriving from the laboratory NREL) resolution ratio
The Practical Meteorological Requirements data of 1min obtain solar global irradiance size per minute on photovoltaic array by Rabl model, and according to photovoltaic
Array received solar global irradiance and photovoltaic array power output relationship, simulation obtain the output power curve of photovoltaic array.
The formula that the solar global irradiance G on photovoltaic panel is obtained by meteorological data is as follows:
G=Gb cosθ+Gd(1+cosβ)/2+ρGh(1-cosβ)/2 (1)
In formula: the solar global irradiance (W/m of G expression photovoltaic panel2)；GhFor the solar global irradiance (W/m on horizontal plane2)；Gb、GdPoint
It Wei not direct irradiation level and scattering irradiance (W/m2)；ρ is ground surface reflectance (%), and β is the mounted angle (°) of photovoltaic panel.
Wherein, parameter Gb、GdMeteorogical phenomena database from OASIS, GhIt can be calculated by formula (2):
Gh=Gb cosθz+Gd (2)
θ、θzThe incidence angle (°) of photovoltaic panel and horizontal plane is incident on for sunlight, this two parameters and the sun and the earth
Relative motion it is related.
For step 2, photovoltaic array output calculation
The solar global irradiance of photovoltaic panel can be calculated by above-mentioned.Assuming that in photovoltaic array, all photovoltaic panels all works
Make in maximum power point, according to the maximum power P of the solar global irradiance G of the obtained photovoltaic panel photovoltaic panel being calculatedmpp's
Formula is as follows:
Pmpp=UmppImpp (3)
In formula, Pmpp、UmppAnd ImppRespectively maximum power point power, the maximum power point voltage of photovoltaic panel output
With maximum power point electric current, a, b, rs、vocFor the intermediate variable for calculating definition；Uoc、IscRespectively current irradiation level and work temperature
Under degree, the open-circuit voltage and short circuit current of photovoltaic panel, the parameter size is related with G.a,b,rs、voc、Uoc、IscThis several ginsengs
Several circulars is calculated with reference to Lorenzo model.
The present embodiment chooses the meteorological data (data come from NREL) on October 7th, 2014, and record time of data is from 4:
00 starts, and terminates in 20:00.It is emulated according to photovoltaic array of the real time meteorological data to a 1MW, available photovoltaic battle array
The solar global irradiance curve and photovoltaic generation power curve for being listed on October 7th, 2014 are respectively such as Fig. 2 and Fig. 3.
From Fig. 2 and Fig. 3 as can be seen that photovoltaic array the generated output of received solar global irradiance and photovoltaic array wave
Dynamic property is essentially identical；It is obvious that photovoltaic array received solar global irradiance be influence photovoltaic array power generation watt level it is main
Factor.
The photovoltaic power generation wave characteristic analysis of step 3, different time scales
Photovoltaic power generation wave characteristic mainly influences the frequency stabilization of power grid, and the photovoltaic power generation wave of 1min is defined in the present embodiment
Momentum is n+1 moment photovoltaic generation power and (resolution ratio that photovoltaic power generation goes out force data is the difference of n moment photovoltaic generation power
1min), it may be assumed that
ΔP1min,n=(Pn+1-Pn)/PN× 100%, n ∈ N+ (6)
Similarly, the photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity of 5min is defined are as follows:
Wherein, PNIndicate the total installation of generating capacity of corresponding photovoltaic array；ΔP1min,nWith Δ P5min,nRespectively 1min and 5min
Photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity, indicated using percentage；Pn、Pn+1And Pn+iRespectively indicate the photovoltaic generation power value of different moments.
The photovoltaic power generation wave that the present embodiment is obtained according to meteorological data (data the come from NREL) emulation on October 7th, 2014
Momentum data make Cumulative Distribution Function figure, as shown in Figure 4.
Figure 4, it is seen that 90% photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity is less than 10%, photovoltaic under the time scale of 1min
The maximum value of power generation undulate quantity reaches 47%；Under the time scale of 5min, about 70% photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity less than 10%,
90% photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity is less than 24%.It is available:
1) photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity size is related with selected time scale, and time scale is longer, photovoltaic power generation fluctuation
Measure length and non-linear relation bigger, but select with time scale；
2) photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity may be in 1 minute more than 40%.Correlative study shows that the undulate quantity of photovoltaic power generation can
60% or more can be reached in tens of seconds.
Available from above analysis, the power output of photovoltaic array is mainly by the received solar global irradiance shadow of photovoltaic array institute
It rings, and weather conditions (cloud layer, sand and dust, temperature, wind speed etc.) are the principal elements for influencing solar global irradiance.The present embodiment is from OASIS
The meteorological data of four typical weather days (fine day, cloudy day, broken sky, sleet sky) of the same observation point is selected in meteorogical phenomena database
Carry out the emulation of photovoltaic array power output, light under the conditions of 4 kinds of fine day as shown in Figure 5, cloudy day, broken sky, sleet sky different weathers
Photovoltaic array power curve, it can be seen that the fluctuating level that weather contributes to photovoltaic array has significant impact: photovoltaic goes out when fine day
Power is steady, and it is small that photovoltaic array goes out fluctuation；When broken sky and cloudy day, due to being influenced by cloud cover, photovoltaic power output undulate quantity
Greatly, undulate quantity is more than the 60% of installed capacity in the short time；In rain and snow, due to the received solar irradiance of photovoltaic array
Low, photovoltaic array power output significantly reduces.
Under the conditions of table 1 and table 2 summarize different weather, under 1min and 5min time scale photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity be less than etc.
Probability P (P (x≤a)) corresponding to a:
Cumulative Distribution Function value under 1 1min time scale of table
Cumulative Distribution Function value under 2 5min time scale of table
Photovoltaic power generation fluctuation under the conditions of comparison different weather can be seen that, in fine day and sleet sky, the light of 1min and 5min
Volt power generation undulate quantity is not above 10%, small to AGC stand-by requirement；And in cloudy day and cloudy weather, photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity is aobvious
It writes and increases；In broken sky, the 5min photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity there are about 15% is more than 20%.The fluctuation of photovoltaic power generation requires power grid
There are enough AGC spare capacities to alleviate influence of the photovoltaic power generation fluctuation to power grid, therefore it is necessary to generate electricity to access to large-scale photovoltaic
AGC requirement forecasting caused by power grid utmostly dissolves intermittent energy source under the premise of guaranteeing power grid security reliability service.
The photovoltaic power generation wave characteristic analysis of step 4, different spaces scale
Experimental observed data shows that the power output of photovoltaic plant similar in geographical location has very high similitude.From wind-powered electricity generation with
It is found in the research of machine, the scale of the distance between wind power plant and wind power plant all has centainly the fluctuation of wind power output
It influences, the fluctuation for showing as different location wind-resources in specific region is cancelled out each other, so that wind-powered electricity generation total ripple in region
Property weaken, referred to as smoothing effect.Photovoltaic power generation power output and wind power output have the characteristics that on wave characteristic it is similar, it is similar
The photovoltaic power generation wave characteristic under different spaces scale is studied on ground.
The occupied area of most photo-voltaic power generation stations at 0.08~0.3 square kilometre, and cloud layer, air humidity, temperature,
Pace of change is quickly in small range region for the various factors such as Changes in weather.The photovoltaic hair of different spaces scale in order to obtain
Electric wave dynamic characteristic, the present embodiment have chosen five irradiance measurement points for being in different location, the longitudes of five positions, latitude,
Height above sea level is as shown in table 3:
The geography information of the different measurement points of table 3
Wherein, SRRL choose two measurement points (CM22 and CM3) distance be 600m, SRRL and NWTC M2, RSR with
And the distance of tri- measurement points of TAC is respectively 12km, 38km and 48km.
Analyze the smoothing effect of photovoltaic power output
The fluctuation of solar global irradiance and photovoltaic power generation of the present embodiment first to single photovoltaic array (CM22 measurement point) into
Row research.According to the definition of photovoltaic generation power variable quantity, the solar global irradiance undulate quantity for defining 1min is total irradiation at n+1 moment
The difference (resolution ratio of solar global irradiance data is 1min) of degree and the solar global irradiance at n moment,
That is:
ΔG1minn=(Gn+1-Gn)/Gs× 100%, n ∈ N+ (8)
Similarly, the solar global irradiance undulate quantity for defining 5min is
Wherein, GsIt is 1000W/m for the reference value of solar global irradiance2；ΔG1minnWith Δ G5minnRespectively 1min's and 5min
Solar global irradiance undulate quantity, is indicated using percentage；Gn、Gn+1And Gn+iRespectively indicate the solar global irradiance value of different moments.
Fig. 6 is the Cumulative Distribution Function of solar global irradiance and photovoltaic power generation under 1min and 5min time scale.By comparing 1MW
The photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity of photovoltaic array and the region solar global irradiance variable quantity (CM22 measurement point of the data from SRRL), can be with
Find out, even if there is also smoothing effects in a photovoltaic array: under the time scale of 1min and 5min, the wave of photovoltaic power generation
Traverse degree is both less than the degree of fluctuation of the region solar global irradiance.
If Fig. 7 and Fig. 8 is to choose the wherein photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity data of 2 measurement points and 5 measurement point summations, obtain
1min and 5min time scale under photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity Cumulative Distribution Function.
The summation of the photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity and 5 measurement point photovoltaic power generation undulate quantities of choosing 2 measurement points is analyzed,
It can be concluded that
1) the photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity of different location is different, and distance is remoter, and the correlation of photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity is lower.
The related coefficient contributed at a distance of two measurement points (CM22 and CM3) photovoltaic array of 600m reaches the light of 0.923, CM22 measurement point
The photovoltaic of photovoltaic array power output and NWTC M2 (distance 12km), RSR (distance 38km) and three measurement points of TAC (distance 48km)
Array power output related coefficient is respectively 0.537,0.446 and 0.275.
2) the photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity of different location offsets each other, and the fluctuation integrally contributed shows smooth effect.
Compared to the photovoltaic power generation fluctuation of each measurement point, the fluctuation integrally contributed is reduced；P value be 90% when, 1min and
The undulate quantity of 5min integrally contributed reduces 47% He compared to the photovoltaic power output undulate quantity mean value of each measurement point respectively
28%.
Analytic explanation, large-scale photovoltaic power station is grid-connected to be helped to reduce photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity, and as scale increases,
Smoothing effect is more and more significant.But the grid-connected bring fluctuation of large-scale photovoltaic power station is spare there is still a need for certain AGC is matched
Capacity making frequency adjustment.
The spectrum analysis of step 5, photovoltaic power generation
Time Series are the component of different frequency by spectrum analysis, it is believed that time series is the superposition of different frequency component
Result.Spectral Analysis Method is sufficiently probed into the frequency domain characteristic of time series, can be used for by the mechanical periodicity of each component of research
The fluctuation characteristic of search time sequence major cycle.And power Spectral Estimation is then the utilisable energy for the signal of power limited
Spectrum analysis, performance be in per unit band signal power with the change situation of frequency.
Realize that power Spectral Estimation is that the process x (n) of extended stationary is expressed as to list entries μ (n) excitation linear system
The output of system H (z), by known sequence x (n) or its auto-correlation function rx(m) to estimate the parameter of H (z), then estimated by H (z)
Count the power spectrum of x (n).
The present embodiment carries out power Spectral Estimation to photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity data using autoregression model (AR model), uses
Burg algorithm solves the model.In photovoltaic generation power sequence at the corresponding frequency of each periodic component, the vibration of component
Width is higher, influences on whole power output bigger.Therefore by carrying out spectrum analysis to photovoltaic generation power sequence, can find out in sequence
Main periodic component.
Using in July, 2013 in NREL database, into September, the typical day meteorological data of 5 different measurement points emulates to obtain
Photovoltaic power generation goes out force data and is studied, and it is as shown in Figure 9 to obtain photovoltaic power output spectrum analysis.
It can be seen in figure 9 that photovoltaic power generation fluctuation is concentrated mainly in the time scale of 5min, and the photovoltaic of this part
Power generation undulate quantity is mainly adjusted by AGC unit；Time scale is that the second power swing of grade is balanced by primary frequency modulation, longer
The power swing of time scale needs scheduling institution to be overregulated unit output etc. to be adjusted.
The AGC stand-by requirement prediction technique that step 6, photovoltaic power generation access system cause
As previously mentioned, photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity is larger, if large-scale photovoltaic, which is generated electricity, accesses power grid, system frequency will lead to
Fluctuation with area control error increases, this to influence increasingly show with the increase of the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation grid-connecting
It writes；It is also referred in aforementioned research, with popularization, it is also desirable to consider photovoltaic plant spatial distribution and smoothing effect.
The wave component of separation key time scale
The system frequency stable problem caused with the spare reply photovoltaic power generation grid-connecting of AGC is firstly the need of to material time ruler
The wave component of degree is separated, and the method for segregational load component, which has, rolls the method for average and the period method of average[17]。
It rolls the method for average and averaging is rolled by the forward and backward number of segment value to each data on photovoltaic power curve P, by
This obtains a smooth photovoltaic power curve Pr.The smooth power curve P for calculating original power curve P and obtainingrDifference
Value, can be obtained the wave component of relative time scale.
Compared with the period method of average, rolling the method for average, treated that curve is more smooth, more meets duration load curve
Feature.Therefore the present embodiment is chosen and rolls the wave component that the method for average carrys out separation key time scale.
The calculating step for rolling the method for average can be expressed as follows:
Wherein, PrThe power generating value of t at the time of to be obtained after rolling the method for average and smoothly contributing；PtFor original power curve
The power generating value of upper moment t；2M is to make to roll the average number for going out force data, depending on rolling average Period Length.
The statistical analysis of step 7, AGC spare capacity needs
By using the rolling method of average available each moment corresponding with the sampling of load amplitude and storage period
Adjust load component.It is possible thereby to determine the AGC spare capacity needs after large-scale photovoltaic power station access system.Use difference
The load component maximum value that method is separated needs the maximum of AGC spare capacity after indicating large-scale photovoltaic power station access system
It asks.But if determining the AGC spare capacity of system according to greatest requirements, it is easy to cause AGC spare capacity superfluous.From 1 He of table
Table 2 is as can be seen that in the case where most, and photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity is much smaller than maximum value, with photovoltaic fluctuation component maximum value
It determines AGC spare capacity, whether to the security and stability of Operation of Electric Systems or economy, there is detrimental effect, therefore
Photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity is analyzed using statistical analysis technique.
According to statistical research, in the time scale of 2~60min, t location-scale distribution goes out Reeb to photovoltaic
Dynamic probability density fitting effect is best；And t location-scale distribution is the t containing scale parameter and location parameter points
Cloth, if it is μ that x, which obeys location parameter, scale parameter σ, the t location-scale that form parameter is υ are distributed, then have (x-
μ)/σ obeys the t that form parameter is υ and is distributed.
The probability density expression formula of t location-scale distribution are as follows:
Wherein, μ is location parameter, and σ is scale parameter, and υ is form parameter.
According to the statistical distribution numerical tabular (GB4086.3-83) of the parameter query t distribution of t distribution, available difference is set
Confidence interval under reliability.Using the size of confidence interval, the spare appearance of AGC caused by large-scale photovoltaic power station access power grid is determined
Amount demand.
According to embodiment simulation result, available photovoltaic power generation fluctuation is concentrated mainly on 5min.Using roll the method for average,
The photovoltaic generation power wave component under 5min time scale is separated, and studies the time scale photovoltaic generation power wave component
Probability distribution, and then realize to large-scale photovoltaic generate electricity access power grid when AGC spare capacity predict.
Average period elongation is rolled, the load component region of variation persistently changed is gentle, the wave component of minute grade
Amplitude of variation increases, and increases the demand that system adjusts AGC；Average Period Length is rolled conversely, shortening, then mitigates system
Demand to AGC condition.Therefore, it is necessary to be selected to roll average Period Length according to the wave characteristic of load.Rule of thumb,
The Period Length averaged is rolled in the present embodiment is selected as 15min.When with cloudy weather, the gas of SRRL CM22 measurement point
The photovoltaic power generation power output data instance (photovoltaic plant installed capacity is 22.5MW) that image data emulates, by rolling the method for average
After processing, the wave component of isolated 5min is as shown in Figure 10:
The 5min wave component data instance of photovoltaic power output described above, it is assumed that the photovoltaic power output wave component of 5min is obeyed
T distribution, is fitted, such as Figure 11 using probability-distribution function of the maximum likelihood estimate to this group of data.It is fitted obtained pair
Number likelihood function value (- 2log likelihood) is 30.5645, illustrates that fitting effect is good.Be fitted obtain location parameter,
Scale parameter and form parameter and its standard deviation are shown in Table 4.
According to fit parameter values, freedom degree parameter is rounded, consults the statistical distribution numerical tabular (GB4086.3- of t distribution
83) and after carrying out relevant calculation, available: to be ± 7.3125MW in the wave component that confidence level is 90%, 5min；I.e. (-
7.3125,7.3125) amplitude section can cover the wave component of 5min grades of photovoltaic array power output with 90% probability, will
It is as the AGC capacity requirement because of the grid-connected initiation of this photovoltaic array.
4 fitting parameter of table
This embodiment is merely preferred embodiments of the present invention, but scope of protection of the present invention is not limited thereto,
In the technical scope disclosed by the present invention, any changes or substitutions that can be easily thought of by anyone skilled in the art,
It should be covered by the protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, protection scope of the present invention should be with scope of protection of the claims
Subject to.
Claims (5)
1. a kind of photovoltaic generation power fluctuation and its Automatic Generation Control stand-by requirement calculation method based on autoregression model,
It is characterised by comprising:
Step 1, the solar global irradiance that photovoltaic panel is calculated by acquisition meteorological data；
Step 2 calculates photovoltaic generation power according to the solar global irradiance of photovoltaic panel；
Step 3 obtains the Cumulative Distribution Function of photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity under different time scales according to weather data analysis；
Step 4, analyze photovoltaic array different location photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity data, obtain different time scales under and different skies
Between under scale photovoltaic power generation undulate quantity Cumulative Distribution Function；
Step 5 carries out spectrum analysis to photovoltaic generation power sequence using autoregression model, finds out the main period point in sequence
Amount；
Step 6 separates the wave component under material time scale using the rolling method of average, obtains and load amplitude samples
The adjusting load component at each moment corresponding with the storage period；
Step 7, using probability density function, determine that Automatic Generation Control caused by large-scale photovoltaic power station access power grid is standby
Use capacity requirement；
Step 8 is that the second power swing of grade is balanced by primary frequency modulation for time scale, for second grade or more time scale
Power swing then passes through adjusting unit output and is adjusted.
2. method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the calculating of the solar global irradiance of photovoltaic panel is public in the step 1
Formula are as follows:
G=Gbcosθ+Gd(1+cosβ)/2+ρGh(1-cosβ)/2
In formula: G indicates the solar global irradiance of photovoltaic panel, unit W/m2；GhFor the solar global irradiance on horizontal plane, unit W/m2；Gb、Gd
Respectively direct irradiation level and scattering irradiance, unit W/m2；ρ is ground surface reflectance, and β is the mounted angle of photovoltaic panel；Its
In, Gh=Gbcosθz+Gd, θ, θzThe respectively sunlight incidence angle that is incident on photovoltaic panel and horizontal plane.
3. method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the calculation formula of photovoltaic generation power in the step 2 are as follows:
Pmpp=UmppImpp
In formula, Pmpp、UmppAnd ImppRespectively maximum power point power, the maximum power point voltage and most of photovoltaic panel output
High-power electric current, a, b, rs、vocFor the intermediate variable for calculating definition；Uoc、IscRespectively in current irradiation level and operating temperature
Under photovoltaic panel open-circuit voltage and short circuit current.
4. method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that it is bent by contributing to photovoltaic to roll the method for average in the step 6
The forward and backward number of segment value of each data, which rolls, on line P is averaging, thus to obtain a smooth photovoltaic power curve Pr, meter
The smooth photovoltaic power curve P for calculating original power curve P and obtainingrDifference, the fluctuation of relative time scale can be obtained
Component, calculation formula are as follows:
In formula, PrFor smooth photovoltaic power curve；PtFor the power generating value of moment t on original power curve；2M is to make to roll averagely
The number for going out force data, depending on rolling average Period Length.
5. method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that probability density function is t in the step 7
Location-scale distribution function.
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| CN107134807B (en) * | 2017-06-29 | 2020-06-23 | 中国南方电网有限责任公司电网技术研究中心 | Control method and device of photovoltaic power generation system, computer equipment and storage medium |
| CN110808594B (en) * | 2019-10-29 | 2021-04-06 | 大唐可再生能源试验研究院有限公司 | Energy storage-based hierarchical energy storage method for frequency modulation of photovoltaic power station |
| CN111159902B (en) * | 2019-12-30 | 2022-03-18 | 清华大学 | Method and device for determining power of photovoltaic station and computer equipment |
| CN112257938B (en) * | 2020-10-28 | 2022-07-08 | 广州发展新能源股份有限公司 | Photovoltaic power generation power prediction method and device |
| CN112418614B (en) * | 2020-11-04 | 2024-01-30 | 华北电力大学 | Method and system for determining adjustable resource construction scheme of power system |
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