CN105229893A - Management devices, device management method, management system - Google Patents

Management devices, device management method, management system Download PDF

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Publication number
CN105229893A
CN105229893A CN201480027349.2A CN201480027349A CN105229893A CN 105229893 A CN105229893 A CN 105229893A CN 201480027349 A CN201480027349 A CN 201480027349A CN 105229893 A CN105229893 A CN 105229893A
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China
Prior art keywords
operation mode
threshold
predicted value
value
equipment
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CN201480027349.2A
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CN105229893B (en
Inventor
张毅波
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Panasonic Intellectual Property Management Co Ltd
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Panasonic Intellectual Property Management Co Ltd
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    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
    • H02J3/003—Load forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future load demand
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
    • H02J3/12—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks for adjusting voltage in ac networks by changing a characteristic of the network load
    • H02J3/14—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks for adjusting voltage in ac networks by changing a characteristic of the network load by switching loads on to, or off from, network, e.g. progressively balanced loading
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J2310/00—The network for supplying or distributing electric power characterised by its spatial reach or by the load
    • H02J2310/10—The network having a local or delimited stationary reach
    • H02J2310/12—The local stationary network supplying a household or a building
    • H02J2310/16—The load or loads being an Information and Communication Technology [ICT] facility
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02B—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO BUILDINGS, e.g. HOUSING, HOUSE APPLIANCES OR RELATED END-USER APPLICATIONS
    • Y02B70/00—Technologies for an efficient end-user side electric power management and consumption
    • Y02B70/30—Systems integrating technologies related to power network operation and communication or information technologies for improving the carbon footprint of the management of residential or tertiary loads, i.e. smart grids as climate change mitigation technology in the buildings sector, including also the last stages of power distribution and the control, monitoring or operating management systems at local level
    • Y02B70/3225—Demand response systems, e.g. load shedding, peak shaving
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
    • Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
    • Y04S20/00—Management or operation of end-user stationary applications or the last stages of power distribution; Controlling, monitoring or operating thereof
    • Y04S20/20—End-user application control systems
    • Y04S20/222—Demand response systems, e.g. load shedding, peak shaving

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  • Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • Power Engineering (AREA)
  • Remote Monitoring And Control Of Power-Distribution Networks (AREA)
  • Supply And Distribution Of Alternating Current (AREA)
  • Power Sources (AREA)

Abstract

The object of the invention is to, in management devices, device management method, management system, while guaranteeing the comfortableness of user, obtain the reduction effect of the power consumption in equipment.Management devices (1) possesses: storage part (11), and it stores the multiple operation mode for equipment; And prediction section (12), it uses the actual value of the power consumption in the equipment measured by measuring appliance (3), the accumulated value of the power consumption in the equipment within the prediction first period second phase shorter than first period.In addition, described management devices (1) possesses selection portion (13), this selection portion (13) when the predicted value of described prediction section (12) exceedes first threshold, to make described predicted value be that the mode of below the first feasible value selects operation mode from multiple operation mode relative to the rate that exceedes of first threshold in units of the second phase.Further, described management devices (1) possesses control part (14), and this control part (14) carrys out control appliance according to the operation mode selected by described selection portion (13).

Description

Management devices, device management method, management system
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of with management devices, device management method, the management system of the mode management equipment making the power consumption in equipment be inhibited.
Background technology
In the past, propose following (electric power) management devices: prediction uses amount of power, carry out the action (such as with reference to Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No 2012-19579 (hereinafter referred to as " document 1 ")) of control appliance (power consumption apparatus) based on set target.
Management devices described in document 1 based on use the detection history record of electric power calculate from when detecting consumptions (use) electric power to the prediction use amount of power at the end of during the target predetermined.The target use amount of power that this management devices uses amount of power based on calculated prediction and predetermines, calculate from when detecting consumption (use) electric power to the predetermined use electric power terminated during target, when current use electric power exceedes predetermined use electric power, the power mode of equipment is controlled to the action of limiting device.The predetermined electric power that uses represents the maximum power reaching target and use amount of power to use by the unit interval.
In addition, also describe in document 1: the target that management devices sets multiple ladder uses amount of power, the upper limit in during this target uses amount of power to be target uses amount of power.Such as during target in units of 1 month, management devices setting makes the use amount of power of in same month, 1 be multiplied by 0.9 and the standard target that obtains and make standard target be multiplied by 0.9 and the effort target that obtains.In this case, management devices at first using not readily accessible effort target as current target, make great efforts the time point of target knowing to reach, target be reset to standard target.
But, in the management devices described in document 1, if current consumption (use) electric power exceedes and predetermined uses electric power, with regard to the action of limiting device, under such circumstances also can the action of limiting device even if therefore temporarily increase in power consumption.Thus, exceedingly limit the action of equipment, thus the possibility that the comfortableness that there is user is impaired.
In addition, this management devices is knowing that cannot reach the time point of making great efforts target reduces target, therefore once be judged as reaching effort target, even if also can target be reduced when retrieving,, there is the possibility of the reduction effect of the power consumption that cannot obtain fully in equipment in its result.
Summary of the invention
The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of management devices, device management method, management system of reduction effect of the power consumption obtained while guaranteeing the comfortableness of user in equipment.
The feature of management devices of the present invention is to possess: storage part, and it stores the multiple operation mode for equipment; Prediction section, it uses the actual value of the power consumption in the described equipment measured by measuring appliance, the accumulated value of the power consumption in the described equipment within the prediction first period second phase, and wherein, the described second phase is shorter than described first period; Selection portion, it is when the predicted value of described prediction section exceedes first threshold, to make this predicted value be that the mode of below the first feasible value selects operation mode from described multiple operation mode relative to the probability that rate or this predicted value exceed described first threshold of exceeding of described first threshold in units of the described second phase; And control part, its according to the described operation mode selected by described selection portion to control described equipment.
The feature of device management method of the present invention is, have: forecasting process, use the actual value of the power consumption in the equipment measured by measuring appliance, the accumulated value of the power consumption in the described equipment within the prediction first period second phase, wherein, the described second phase is shorter than described first period; Selection course, when the predicted value of described forecasting process exceedes first threshold, to make this predicted value be that the mode of below the first feasible value selects operation mode from the multiple operation mode of described equipment relative to the probability that rate or this predicted value exceed described first threshold of exceeding of described first threshold in units of the described second phase; And control procedure, control described equipment according to the described operation mode selected by described selection course.
The feature of management system of the present invention is to possess: multiple equipment; Measuring appliance, it measures the power consumption in described equipment; And management devices, it controls described equipment, and wherein, described management devices has: storage part, and it stores the multiple operation mode for described equipment; Prediction section, it uses the actual value of the power consumption in the described equipment measured by described measuring appliance, the accumulated value of the power consumption in the described equipment within the prediction first period second phase, and wherein, the described second phase is shorter than described first period; Selection portion, it is when the predicted value of described prediction section exceedes first threshold, to make this predicted value be that the mode of below the first feasible value selects operation mode from described multiple operation mode relative to the probability that rate or this predicted value exceed described first threshold of exceeding of described first threshold in units of the described second phase; And control part, its according to the described operation mode selected by described selection portion to control described equipment.
The present invention when predicted value exceedes first threshold, to make predicted value exceed relative to first threshold the way selection operation mode that probability that rate or predicted value exceed first threshold is below the first feasible value in units of the second phase.Thus, while allowing that predicted value exceedes first threshold, obtain the reduction effect of the power consumption in equipment, therefore there is following advantage: the reduction effect obtaining the power consumption in equipment while guaranteeing the comfortableness of user.
Accompanying drawing explanation
In further detail the preferred embodiment of the present invention is described.Then better other features and advantages of the present invention can be understood in conjunction with the following detailed description and accompanying drawing.
Fig. 1 is the general block diagram of the management system involved by execution mode 1 and 2.
Fig. 2 is the key diagram of electricity charge unit price.
Fig. 3 is the key diagram of the distribution of the predicted value of the prediction section represented involved by execution mode 2.
Embodiment
The management system illustrated in following execution mode is the system that mode that the power consumption in equipment is inhibited manages equipment.Below, be described using following situation: use management system in the detached house as electricity needs person (facility).
At this, electricity needs person and carrying out as use management system generate electricity and power transmission Utilities Electric Co. or replace Utilities Electric Co. to carry out an example of the contract between the service provider of electrical management, adopt the staged electricity charge of stepped rising along with the increase of electricity usage amount of electricity charge unit price.In this example embodiment, electricity charge unit price determines according to the electricity usage amount of electricity needs person within the first period of each regulation.Specifically, if electricity usage amount is below first threshold, apply the first ladder expense, if electricity usage amount is greater than first threshold and for below Second Threshold, applies the second ladder expense (> first ladder expense), if electricity usage amount is greater than Second Threshold, apply the 3rd ladder expense (> second ladder expense).In addition, Second Threshold is set to be greater than first threshold.
Such as when first period is this 1 year 1 ~ December 31 of January, as shown in Figure 2, at the time point in August, the accumulated value (electricity usage amount) of the power consumption from January in the same year exceedes first threshold E1, and electricity charge unit price changes the second ladder expense R2 into from the first ladder expense R1 thus.And, at the time point in October, the accumulated value (electricity usage amount) of the power consumption from January in the same year exceedes Second Threshold E2 (>E1), and electricity charge unit price changes the 3rd ladder expense R3 into from the second ladder expense R2 thus.In addition, in fig. 2, transverse axis represents the electricity usage amount in first period, and the longitudinal axis represents electricity charge unit price, and the area in oblique line portion is equivalent to the electricity charge.
Therefore, power consumption in the equipment that management system suppresses electricity needs person to locate in order to electricity charge unit price electricity needs person located is pressed low, the desired value (first threshold, Second Threshold) the use amount of power of each first period being no more than preset.Wherein, management system is not limited to for detached house, also may be used for the electricity needs person such as each resident family, office, shop of such as collective residence.
In addition, Fig. 2 is only used as the demonstration case for illustration of the staged electricity charge exemplified with the electricity charge of certain electricity needs person, and its aim does not also lie in the situation limiting use management system, and first period is also not limited to 1 year, such as, also can be 30 minutes, 1 month etc.In addition, about the contract between the electricity needs person of use management system and Utilities Electric Co. or service provider, the above-mentioned staged electricity charge are an example only, also can adopt other expenditure mode.
As shown in Figure 1, management system 10 possesses multiple equipment 21,22,23,24 ... the measuring appliance 3 of power consumption in (following, to be generically and collectively referred to as time not distinguishable from one another " equipment 2 "), measuring equipment 2 and the management devices 1 of control appliance 2.
Management devices 1 possesses storage part 11 and prediction section 12.Storage part 11 stores the multiple operation mode for equipment 2.Prediction section 12 uses the actual value of the power consumption in the equipment 2 measured by measuring appliance 3, and every the accumulated value than the power consumption in the equipment 2 in the prediction first period second phase, wherein, this second phase is shorter than first period.Further, management devices 1 possesses selection portion 13.Selection portion 13 when the predicted value of prediction section 12 exceedes first threshold, to make predicted value be that the mode of below the first feasible value selects operation mode from multiple operation mode relative to the probability that rate or predicted value exceed first threshold of exceeding of first threshold in units of the second phase.Further, management devices 1 possesses control part 14.Control part 14 carrys out control appliance 2 according to the operation mode selected by selection portion 13.
In addition, preferably, when do not exist meet make the predicted value of prediction section 12 relative to first threshold to exceed probability that rate or predicted value exceed first threshold be the operation mode of this condition of below the first feasible value, selection portion 13 selects operation mode as follows.Namely, preferably, when there is not the operation mode meeting above-mentioned condition in multiple operation mode, selection portion 13 in units of the second phase to make predicted value select operation mode for the mode below Second Threshold from multiple operation mode, wherein, Second Threshold is greater than first threshold.
Further, preferably, when do not exist meet make the predicted value of prediction section 12 be the operation mode of this condition of below Second Threshold, selection portion 13 selects operation mode as follows.Namely, preferably, when there is not the operation mode meeting above-mentioned condition in multiple operation mode, selection portion 13 exceedes relative to Second Threshold the way selection operation mode that probability that rate or predicted value exceed Second Threshold is below the second feasible value to make predicted value.In this case, preferably, selection portion 13 selects operation mode in units of the second phase from multiple operation mode.
In addition, preferably, do not exist in multiple operation mode meet make predicted value relative to Second Threshold to exceed probability that rate or predicted value exceed Second Threshold be the operation mode of this condition of below the second feasible value, selection portion 13 carries out action as following.That is, preferably, selection portion 13 changes at least one operation mode in the multiple operation mode stored in storage part 11.Or, preferably, do not exist in multiple operation mode meet make predicted value relative to Second Threshold to exceed probability that rate or predicted value exceed Second Threshold be the operation mode of this condition of below the second feasible value, selection portion 13 carries out action as following.That is, preferably, selection portion 13 is configured to change Second Threshold.
Further, preferably, prediction section 12 is configured to the specification information of use equipment 2 and the accumulated value showing the power consumption in predict device 2 duration of runs of equipment 2.
In addition, preferably, management devices 1 also possesses the acquisition unit 15 obtaining meteorological data, and prediction section 12 is configured to use the meteorological data got by acquisition unit 15 to carry out the accumulated value of the power consumption in predict device 2.
(execution mode 1)
In the management system 10 involved by present embodiment, multiple equipment 2 is the various home appliances, equipment machine etc. of locating use electricity needs person, comprises air conditioner (aircondition) 21, electric heater 22, refrigerator 23 and miscellaneous equipment 24 etc. in the example in fig 1.As miscellaneous equipment 24, there are IH electromagnetic oven, electric cooker, microwave oven, air purifier, total-heat exchanger, ligthing paraphernalia etc.
At this, each equipment 2 is configured at least to switch between the smaller energy saver mode of consumed energy and larger these two operation modes of normal mode of consumed energy.That is, the operation mode of each equipment 2 is not a kind of, and each equipment 2 is configured to switch between the catabiotic plural operation mode varied in size.
Such as, the design temperature of air conditioner 21 when cooling operation lower than design temperature when set point of temperature or warming operation higher than being normal mode during set point of temperature, the design temperature when cooling operation higher than design temperature when set point of temperature or warming operation lower than being energy saver mode during set point of temperature.If electric heater 22, if then boiling hot water amount is normal mode more than the words of ormal weight, if the words that boiling hot water amount is less than ormal weight are energy saver mode.About refrigerator 23, if the design temperature in refrigerator is lower than set point of temperature, being normal mode, if the design temperature in refrigerator is higher than set point of temperature, is energy saver mode.
Electricity needs person place is provided with the distribution board 4 be connected with the lead-in of system power supply (source power supply) 41.Main breaker (not shown) and branch circuit breaker (not shown) is accommodated with in distribution board 4, this main breaker is inserted into the trunk system be connected with system power supply 41, and this branch circuit breaker is inserted into each branch system of multiple branch systems of the primary side branch from main breaker.
Measuring appliance 3 is arranged in distribution board 4, measures the actual value of the power consumption in each equipment 2 and measurement result is sent to management devices 1.Measuring appliance 3 is measured respectively and is flowed to the current value of trunk system and each branch system and the magnitude of voltage of trunk system, obtains carry out by the measurement point of the assigned position place setting of trunk system and each branch system the power value (instant electrical power) that supplies based on these current values and magnitude of voltage.Further, measuring appliance 3 carries out the accumulated process of power value, not only calculates instant electrical power and also calculates amount of power (cumulative power).
Measuring appliance 3 has the Department of Communication Force (not shown) carrying out communicating between management devices 1, sends measurement result (instant electrical power and cumulative power) with regular form or in response to the form of the request from management devices 1 from Department of Communication Force to management devices 1.In addition, measuring appliance 3 is incorporated in distribution board 4 together with other internal unit (main breaker, branch circuit breaker), but is not limited to this structure, also can arrange in parallel with distribution board 4.In addition, as long as measuring appliance 3 has the actual value of the power consumption measured in each equipment 2 and measurement result outputted to the function of management devices 1, such as, also can be that there is the checking meter with instrument, the smart jack etc. with measurement function and communication function of communication function as intelligent instrument.
In the present embodiment, display terminal 5 is used as the various information of display or accepts the user interface that the operation from user inputs by management devices 1.Therefore, management devices 1 is the structure himself not having display part, accept the operation inputting part that the operation from user inputs, but also himself can arrange display part, operation inputting part.Display terminal 5 adopts touch panel display, shows the information that gets from management devices 1 or export to management devices 1 to input corresponding signal to the operation of user.Management devices 1 also can be the structure replacing special display terminal 5 and tablet terminal, smart phone, personal computer, television receiver etc. are used as user interface.
In addition, management devices 1 is connected to the networks such as internet 61 via router 6.Sent-received message between the server 7 that management devices 1 is configured to can and to be connected to network 61.
The structure > of < management devices
Management devices 1 possesses storage part 11, prediction section 12, selection portion 13 and control part 14 as described above, also possesses acquisition unit 15 and display control unit 16 in the present embodiment.In addition, management devices 1 also possess with the first Department of Communication Force 111 carrying out communicating between multiple equipment 2 and display terminal 5 with carry out the second communication portion 112 communicated and the third communication portion 113 being connected to router 6 between measuring appliance 3.
At this, the first Department of Communication Force 111 and second communication portion 112 bidirectionally communicate with between communication counterpart each via radio communication electric wave being used as transmission medium, third communication portion 113 and router 6 wired connection.As communication, such as, apply the mode such as the specific low-power wireless of 400MHz frequency band, the specific low-power wireless of 900MHz frequency band, Wi-Fi (registered trade mark), Bluetooth (registered trade mark).But the communication separately and between communication counterpart of the first Department of Communication Force 111 and second communication portion 112 is not limited to radio communication, and also can be wire communication, can also be the communication via repeater in addition.
In the present embodiment, management devices 1 for main structure, realizes the function in each portion with microcomputer (microcomputer) by the regulated procedure stored in execute store (not shown).
As the basic function of the management devices 1 in present embodiment, this management devices 1 has following functions: controlled by control part 14 pairs of equipment 2; And make display terminal 5 show the display information of the actual value based on the power consumption in the equipment 2 got from measuring appliance 3 by display control unit 16.
In a word, management devices 1 as HEMS (HomeEnergyManagementSystem: home energy source management system) controller and play function, equipment 2 is controlled or makes the power consumption in equipment 2 visual (visualization).Therefore, management system 10 according to the present embodiment, can manage the consumption situation of the electric power in equipment 2, thus can unnecessary power consumption in suppression equipment 2.
Specifically, management devices 1 is configured to: communicated with each equipment 2 by the first Department of Communication Force 111, and communicated with measuring appliance 3 by second communication portion 112, automatically each equipment 2 is controlled by control part 14 based on the measurement result in measuring appliance 3 thus.Further, management devices 1 also has following functions: according to by user in the fixed operation of the enterprising professional etiquette of display terminal 5 and the operational order produced, the equipment 2 becoming object is controlled.That is, management devices 1 is communicated with display terminal 5 by the first Department of Communication Force 111, obtain operational order from display terminal 5 thus, from the first Department of Communication Force 111, the control command corresponding with this operational order is sent to the equipment 2 becoming object, perform the control of this equipment 2.
In addition, management devices 1 is configured to: communicated with display terminal 5 by the first Department of Communication Force 111, makes display terminal 5 show display information based on the measurement result in measuring appliance 3 thus by display control unit 16.Management devices 1 such as using the power consumption of the power consumption (electric power of trunk system) in all devices 2 of the electricity needs person as the measurement result in measuring appliance 3 and each branch system as display information, will represent that the transmission data of this display information are sent to display terminal 5.At this, management devices 1, when each measuring appliance 3 upgrades measurement result (power consumption) with Fixed Time Interval (such as 5 seconds intervals), sends transmission data to upgrade the display information shown by display terminal 5.
In addition, can by operating the display information switching display on display terminal 5 to display terminal 5, user the power consumption of the power consumption in all devices 2 of electricity needs person and each branch system can be made to switch show, or instant electrical power and cumulative power are switched show.
Then, the details in each portion of the management devices 1 involved by present embodiment are described.
Storage part 11 stores the multiple operation mode for equipment 2.Multiple equipment 21,22,23,24 is represented at this said operation mode ... the combination of operate condition.That is, for an operation mode, to the combination of operate condition that should have multiple equipment 2.But be not limited thereto, also can for an operation mode only to the operate condition that should have an equipment 2.Operate condition comprises operation mode during difference and the running of running (the work)/stopping of each equipment 2.Therefore, as an example of the operation mode of air conditioner 21, electric heater 22, refrigerator 23, have that air conditioner 21 is normal mode, electric heater 22 is energy saver mode, combination that refrigerator 23 is the such operate condition of normal mode.Further, operation mode also can comprise and such as makes equipment 2 operate as " 1 day running (work) to 6 hours ", " only in period running (work) of 20 point ~ 24 " so the temporal restriction of (work).Storage part 11 is previously stored with this multiple operation mode for equipment 2.
Arbitrary operation mode is selected in the multiple operation mode that selection portion 13 stores from storage part 11.Control part 14 carrys out control appliance 2 according to the operation mode selected by selection portion 13.In the present embodiment, selection portion 13 acquiescence selects the operation mode of all devices 2 to be the such operation mode of normal mode.But, also display terminal 5 can be used at random to set selection portion 13 by user and give tacit consent to the operation mode of selection and this operation mode is stored in advance in storage part 11.
Prediction section 12 is configured to: the actual value using the power consumption in the equipment 2 measured by measuring appliance 3, the accumulated value of the power consumption in the equipment 2 within the prediction first period second phase shorter than first period.At this, the accumulated value of the power consumption in equipment 2 is the accumulated value of the power consumption (electric power of trunk system) in all devices 2 of electricity needs person.In the present embodiment, as an example, suppose that first period is this 1 year 1 ~ December 31 of January, the second phase is 0:00 ~ 24:00 these 24 hours (1 day).
That is, prediction section 12 uses the measurement result of measuring appliance 3 to predict the accumulated value of the power consumption in all devices 2 in 1 ~ December 31 January then every day.In addition, prediction section 12 is configured to the accumulated value of the power consumption of every day in determined moment (such as 0:00) prediction all devices 2 then.
Specifically, when current point in time being such as set to the moment 0:00 on April 1, during January 1 to March 31 (the previous day of current point in time) for then in (1 ~ December 31 January), there is the actual value of the power consumption amount measured by measuring appliance 3.Therefore, prediction section 12, for during the current point in time (April 1) to December 31 in then, inferred power consumption amount in units of 1 day.Now, prediction section 12 uses and infers power consumption amount during current point in time then to December 31 by the operation mode of the current selection of selection portion 13.Prediction section 12 by make the power consumption amount (actual value) during 1 day to current point in time January with infer that the power consumption amount (guess value) in each sky that the current point in time that is later is added, predict the accumulated value of the power consumption in all devices 2 then.
At this, the table duration of runs of specification information and equipment 2 that the prediction section 12 in present embodiment is configured to use equipment 2 carrys out the accumulated value of the power consumption in predict device 2.That is, prediction section 12 is except using the measurement result of measuring appliance 3, also use the rated electrical of each operation mode, stand-by electric etc. represent the specification information of the specification of each equipment 2 and represent weekly the table duration of runs that the running of the equipment 2 of several, each period is predetermined, predict the accumulated value of power consumption then.
About specification information, the duration of runs table, management devices 1 both can be obtained from server 7 via network 61 based on the identifier (model etc.) of equipment 2 by third communication portion 113, the information that user also can be used to pass through display terminal 5 input.In addition, the measurement result of measuring appliance 3 also can be stored in storage part 11 by management devices 1 at any time, Corpus--based Method data obtain specification information, the duration of runs table.
Further, the prediction section 12 of present embodiment is configured to use acquisition unit 15 to carry out the accumulated value of the power consumption predict device 2 from the meteorological data that server 7 obtains.Acquisition unit 15 is configured to obtain the meteorological datas such as seasonal forecasting via network 61 from server 7 by third communication portion 113, in prediction section 12, this meteorological data is used in the prediction of the accumulated value of power consumption.
At this, the estimation method of the power consumption amount in each sky that current point in time is later is also different from the classification of equipment 2, and the estimation method for representational equipment 2 is as follows.
Such as the air conditioner 21 during warming operation, prediction section 12 passes through A 11(Δ T) 2+ A 12(Δ T)+A 13p 11estimate power consumption amount.At this, A 11, A 12, A 13be coefficient, Δ T is design temperature-outside atmosphere temperature, P 11the rated consumption electric power of the air conditioner 21 when being warming operation.For the air conditioner 21 during cooling operation, prediction section 12 passes through A 14(Δ T) 2+ A 15(Δ T)+A 16p 12estimate power consumption amount.At this, A 14, A 15, A 16be coefficient, Δ T is outside atmosphere temperature-design temperature, P 12the rated consumption electric power of the air conditioner 21 when being cooling operation.
For electric heater 22, prediction section 12 passes through A 21(Δ T) 2+ A 22(Δ T)+A 23p 2estimate power consumption amount.At this, A 21, A 22, A 23be coefficient, Δ T is design temperature-water supply (running water) temperature, P 2the rated consumption electric power of electric heater 22.For refrigerator 23, prediction section 12 passes through A 31(Δ T) 2+ A 32(Δ T)+A 33p 3estimate power consumption amount.At this, A 31, A 32, A 33be coefficient, Δ T is indoor temperature-design temperature, P 3the rated consumption electric power of refrigerator 23.
For IH electromagnetic oven, prediction section 12 passes through A 41t+A 42p 4estimate power consumption amount.At this, A 41, A 42be coefficient, T is design temperature, P 4the rated consumption electric power of IH electromagnetic oven.For temperature independent miscellaneous equipment 2, prediction section 12 passes through A 51p 5estimate power consumption amount.At this, A 51coefficient, P 5the rated consumption electric power of equipment 2.
In addition, Corpus--based Method data predetermine the initial value of above-mentioned each coefficient, by each electricity needs person, revise above-mentioned each coefficient based on actual value at any time by regression analysis method etc.
Below, the accumulated value of the power consumption in the equipment 2 then doped by prediction section 12 is called " predicted value ".
When the predicted value of prediction section 12 exceedes first threshold, selection portion 13 in units of the second phase to make predicted value exceed relative to first threshold the way selection operation mode that rate is below the first feasible value.Namely, the first threshold of the predicted value (predicted value of the accumulated value of the power consumption in the equipment 2 in first period) of prediction section 12 with regulation compares by selection portion 13, according to its result, in units of the second phase, select the operation mode of equipment 2.
At this, first threshold is the electricity usage amount switching to the second ladder expense in the staged electricity charge from the first ladder expense as described above, is stored in advance in storage part 11 after using display terminal 5 to set by user.First feasible value is such as the value of user's arbitrarily setting in the scope of 0 ~ 100 (%), after using display terminal 5 to set by user and first threshold be stored in advance in groups in storage part 11.
If the predicted value of prediction section 12 is below first threshold, then selection portion 13 continues to select current selected operation mode.That is, if predicted value is below first threshold, then selection portion 13 does not change operation mode.On the other hand, if the predicted value of prediction section 12 exceedes first threshold, then selection portion 13 in units of the second phase to make predicted value exceed relative to first threshold the way selection operation mode that rate is below the first feasible value.
Specifically, when predicted value exceedes first threshold, the emulation that selection portion 13 makes prediction section 12 carry out when have selected the operation mode beyond the current selection in the multiple operation modes in storage part 11, compares the predicted value in this situation and first threshold.Its result, selection portion 13 selects to make predicted value to be the such operation mode of below the first feasible value relative to the rate that exceedes of first threshold in units of the second phase.If exist multiple make predicted value relative to first threshold exceed the operation mode that rate is below the first feasible value, then selection portion 13 select the predicted value in the plurality of operation mode maximum, namely the action of equipment 2 limit the operation mode relaxed most.
At this, as below, computational prediction value exceedes rate relative to first threshold.
That is, rate is exceeded by making predicted value carry out computational prediction value relative to the amount of exceeding of first threshold divided by first threshold relative to first threshold.That is, predicted value is represented as exceedes rate=(predicted value-first threshold)/(first threshold) × 100 (%) relative to the rate that exceedes of first threshold, if such as predicted value is 1.1 times of first threshold, exceedes rate for " 10% ".
What management devices 1 was selected to make predicted value relative to first threshold as described above exceedes the operation mode that rate is below the first feasible value, therefore allows that the wide-ultra that predicted value is determining with the first feasible value set by user is crossing first threshold.That is, select operation mode as described above by selection portion 13, allow that predicted value exceedes first threshold to a certain extent, obtain the reduction effect of the power consumption in the equipment 2 in first period simultaneously fully.
In addition, also likely in storage part 11 store multiple operation modes in do not exist meet make predicted value relative to first threshold exceed the operation mode that rate is this condition of below the first feasible value.Therefore, in the present embodiment, when do not exist make predicted value relative to first threshold to exceed rate be the operation mode of below the first feasible value, selection portion 13 in units of the second phase with make predicted value be greater than first threshold Second Threshold below way selection operation mode.
At this, Second Threshold is greater than first threshold, is the electricity usage amount switching to the 3rd ladder expense as described above in the staged electricity charge from the second ladder expense, is stored in advance in storage part 11 after using display terminal 5 to set by user.
Specifically, if there is no the operation mode of above-mentioned condition is met, then selection portion 13 carries out when have selected the operation mode beyond the current selection in the multiple operation modes in storage part 11 by prediction section 12 emulation, the predicted value in this situation and Second Threshold is compared.Its result, selection portion 13 is selected to make predicted value for operation mode such below Second Threshold in units of the second phase.If there is multiple predicted value that makes is the operation mode of below Second Threshold, then selection portion 13 select the predicted value in the plurality of operation mode maximum, namely the action of equipment 2 limit the operation mode relaxed most.
In addition, not existing in the multiple operation modes also likely stored in storage part 11 to meet makes the predicted value of prediction section 12 be the operation mode of this condition of below Second Threshold.Therefore, in the present embodiment, when to there is not the predicted value making prediction section 12 be the operation mode of below Second Threshold, selection portion 13 in units of the second phase to make predicted value exceed relative to Second Threshold the way selection operation mode that rate is below the second feasible value.
At this, the second feasible value is such as the value of user's arbitrarily setting in the scope of 0 ~ 100 (%), after using display terminal 5 to set by user and Second Threshold be stored in advance in groups in storage part 11.
Specifically, if there is no the operation mode of above-mentioned condition is met, then selection portion 13 carries out when have selected the operation mode beyond the current selection in the multiple operation modes in storage part 11 by prediction section 12 emulation, the predicted value in this situation and Second Threshold is compared.Its result, selection portion 13 selects to make predicted value to be the such operation mode of below the second feasible value relative to the rate that exceedes of Second Threshold in units of the second phase.If exist multiple make predicted value relative to Second Threshold exceed the operation mode that rate is below the second feasible value, selection portion 13 select the predicted value in the plurality of operation mode maximum, namely the action of equipment 2 limit the operation mode relaxed most.
Further, also likely in storage part 11 store multiple operation modes in do not exist meet make predicted value relative to Second Threshold exceed the operation mode that rate is this condition of below the second feasible value.Therefore, in the present embodiment, selection portion 13 is configured to: when do not exist make predicted value relative to Second Threshold to exceed rate be the operation mode of below the second feasible value, change at least one operation mode in the multiple operation mode stored in storage part 11.
Specifically, if there is no meet the operation mode of above-mentioned condition, then selection portion 13 changes the operation mode in storage part 11 in the mode of the power consumption in reduction equipment 2.For existing operation mode, selection portion 13 such as increases the equipment 2 of stopping, or add and equipment 2 is operated the temporal restriction of (work) as " 1 day running (work) to 6 hours ", " only operating (work) in the period of 20 point ~ 24 ", change operation mode thus.That is, the content (operate condition of equipment 2) set in an operation mode in the existing multiple operation mode in selection portion 13 pairs of storage parts 11 itself changes.Selection portion 13, by selecting the operation mode after changing, can make predicted value be below the second feasible value relative to the rate that exceedes of Second Threshold.In addition, when changing plural operation mode, selection portion 13 carries out using the emulation of plural operation mode after changing by prediction section 12, select the predicted value in this plural operation mode maximum, namely the action of equipment 2 limit the operation mode relaxed most.
Or selection portion 13 also can be configured to: when do not exist make the predicted value of prediction section 12 relative to Second Threshold to exceed rate be the operation mode of below the second feasible value, change Second Threshold.
Specifically, if there is no meet the operation mode of above-mentioned condition, then selection portion 13 changes Second Threshold in storage part 11 to make Second Threshold become large mode.Now, selection portion 13 both can change Second Threshold automatically, also can change Second Threshold by making user set new Second Threshold.Second Threshold after prediction section 12 is changed by application, can make predicted value be below the second feasible value relative to the rate that exceedes of Second Threshold.
The action > of < management devices
Then, the action of the management devices 1 involved by present embodiment is described, namely uses the device management method of management devices 1.At this, be described for the situation that first threshold is set to 3600kWh, Second Threshold is set to 5400kWh.In addition, the first feasible value at random sets by electricity needs person, supposes to be set to 100% at the first electricity needs person place, is set to 70%, is set to 0% at the 3rd electricity needs person place at the second electricity needs person place.Second feasible value at random sets by electricity needs person, supposes to be set to 80% at the first electricity needs person place, is set to 10%, is set to 0% at the 3rd electricity needs person place at the second electricity needs person place.
First management devices 1 uses the actual value of the power consumption in the equipment 2 measured by measuring appliance 3, the accumulated value (forecasting process) of the power consumption in the equipment 2 within the prediction first period second phase shorter than first period.
When predicted value exceedes first threshold, management devices 1 in units of the second phase to make predicted value be that the mode of below the first feasible value selects operation mode (selection course) from the multiple operation mode of equipment 2 relative to the rate that exceedes of first threshold.That is, when predicted value is more than 3600kWh, management devices 1 is that the mode of below the first feasible value selects operation mode from the multiple operation mode of equipment 2 to make predicted value relative to the rate that exceedes of 3600kWh.
At this, locating the first feasible value the first electricity needs person is 100%, therefore select to make predicted value relative to 3600kWh exceed rate be less than 100%, namely predicted value be the operation mode of below 7200kWh.Locating the first feasible value the second electricity needs person is 70%, therefore select to make predicted value relative to 3600kWh exceed rate be less than 70%, namely predicted value be the operation mode of below 6120kWh.Locating the first feasible value the 3rd electricity needs person is 0%, therefore select to make predicted value relative to 3600kWh exceed rate be 0%, namely predicted value be the operation mode of below 3600kWh.
Afterwards, management devices 1 carrys out control appliance 2 (control procedure) according to the operation mode selected by selection course.
In addition, in the selection process, when do not exist make predicted value relative to first threshold to exceed rate be the operation mode of below the first feasible value, management devices 1 in units of the second phase to make predicted value for the way selection operation mode below Second Threshold.Further, when do not exist make predicted value be the operation mode of below Second Threshold, management devices 1 in units of the second phase to make predicted value exceed relative to Second Threshold the way selection operation mode that rate is below the second feasible value.
At this, locating the second feasible value the first electricity needs person is 80%, therefore select to make predicted value relative to 5400kWh exceed rate be less than 80%, namely predicted value be the operation mode of below 9720kWh.Locating the second feasible value the second electricity needs person is 10%, therefore select to make predicted value relative to 5400kWh exceed rate be less than 10%, namely predicted value be the operation mode of below 5940kWh.Locating the second feasible value the 3rd electricity needs person is 0%, therefore select to make predicted value relative to 5400kWh exceed rate be 0%, namely predicted value be the operation mode of below 5400kWh.
The effect > of < present embodiment
According to the management system 10 of present embodiment described above, when the predicted value of prediction section 12 exceedes first threshold, selection portion 13 in units of the second phase to make predicted value exceed relative to first threshold the way selection operation mode that rate is below the first feasible value.Thus, allow that predicted value exceedes first threshold, obtain the reduction effect of the power consumption in equipment 2, therefore there is following advantage in management system 10 simultaneously: the reduction effect obtaining the power consumption in equipment 2 while guaranteeing the comfortableness of user.
In addition, when do not exist make the predicted value of prediction section 12 relative to first threshold to exceed rate be the operation mode of below the first feasible value, selection portion 13 in units of the second phase to make predicted value for the way selection operation mode below Second Threshold.Thus, even if when do not exist make predicted value relative to first threshold to exceed rate be the operation mode of below the first feasible value, target also can be reduced to Second Threshold to obtain the reduction effect of the power consumption equipment 2 from first threshold by management system 10.
Further, when to there is not the predicted value making prediction section 12 be the operation mode of below Second Threshold, selection portion 13 in units of the second phase to make predicted value exceed relative to Second Threshold the way selection operation mode that rate is below the second feasible value.Thus, though when do not exist make predicted value be the operation mode of below Second Threshold, management system 10 also can allow that predicted value exceedes Second Threshold to a certain extent, and fully obtains the reduction effect of the power consumption in equipment 2.
In addition, when do not exist make predicted value relative to Second Threshold to exceed rate be the operation mode of below the second feasible value, selection portion 13 changes at least one operation mode in the multiple operation mode stored in storage part 11.Thus, though when do not exist make predicted value relative to Second Threshold to exceed rate be the operation mode of below the second feasible value, management system 10 also can change operation mode to obtain the reduction effect of the power consumption in equipment 2.
Or, when do not exist make the predicted value of prediction section 12 relative to Second Threshold to exceed rate be the operation mode of below the second feasible value, selection portion 13 changes Second Threshold.Thus, though when do not exist make predicted value relative to Second Threshold to exceed rate be the operation mode of below the second feasible value, management system 10 also can change Second Threshold to obtain the reduction effect of the power consumption in equipment 2.
And, the table duration of runs of specification information and equipment 2 that prediction section 12 is configured to use equipment 2 carrys out the accumulated value of the power consumption in predict device 2, therefore with do not use specification information, compared with situation that the duration of runs is shown, the precision of prediction of the accumulated value of the power consumption in equipment 2 uprises.
In addition, prediction section 12 uses the meteorological data got by acquisition unit 15 to carry out the accumulated value of the power consumption in predict device 2, and therefore compared with not using the situation of meteorological data, the precision of prediction of the accumulated value of the power consumption in equipment 2 uprises.
(execution mode 2)
The management system 10 of present embodiment is different from the management system 10 of execution mode 1 in the following areas: when the predicted value of prediction section 12 exceedes first threshold, and selection portion 13 is the way selection operation mode of below the first feasible value with the probability making predicted value exceed first threshold in units of the second phase.Below, common mark is marked to the structure identical with execution mode 1, suitably omits the description.
That is, in execution mode 1, when predicted value exceedes first threshold, selection portion 13 exceedes relative to first threshold the way selection operation mode that rate is below the first feasible value to make predicted value.On the other hand, in the present embodiment, when predicted value exceedes first threshold, selection portion 13 is the way selection operation mode of below the first feasible value with the probability making predicted value and exceed first threshold.
At this, as below, computational prediction value exceedes the probability of first threshold.
That is, probability density function is as shown in Figure 3 used to represent that predicted value exceedes the probability of first threshold.As its prerequisite, predicted value is not the value determined, and can adopt various value according to the uncertain key element such as the life pattern of user, meteorological data.At this, suppose that predicted value is normal distribution.
Therefore, in the present embodiment, μ+3 σ represented and first threshold E1 compared by average value mu and the standard deviation of predicted value, the predicted value situation of μ+3 σ >E1 being defined as prediction section 12 exceedes the situation of first threshold.In a word, when μ+3 σ >E1, selection portion 13 is the way selection operation mode of below the first feasible value with the probability making predicted value exceed first threshold in units of the second phase.
Represent that predicted value exceedes the probability of first threshold by the area (area of the oblique line portion of Fig. 3) × 100 (%) exceeding the probability density function of the scope of first threshold E1.If the mean value of such as predicted value is first threshold E1, then predicted value exceedes the probability of first threshold for " 50% ".
In addition, do not exist in the multiple operation modes yet likely stored in storage part 11 and meet the operation mode that the probability making predicted value exceed first threshold is this condition of below the first feasible value.Therefore, in the present embodiment, when to there is not the probability making predicted value exceed first threshold be the operation mode of below the first feasible value, selection portion 13 in units of the second phase to make predicted value for the way selection operation mode below Second Threshold.
In addition, in the present embodiment, when to there is not the predicted value making prediction section 12 be the operation mode of below Second Threshold, selection portion 13 is the way selection operation mode of below the second feasible value with the probability making predicted value exceed Second Threshold in units of the second phase.
Further, in the present embodiment, selection portion 13 is configured to: when to there is not the probability making predicted value exceed Second Threshold be the operation mode of below the second feasible value, changes the operation mode stored in storage part 11.Or selection portion 13 also can be following structure: when to there is not the probability making predicted value exceed Second Threshold be the operation mode of below the second feasible value, change Second Threshold.
The effect > of < present embodiment
According to the management system 10 of present embodiment described above, when the predicted value of prediction section 12 exceedes first threshold, selection portion 13 is the way selection operation mode of below the first feasible value with the probability making predicted value exceed first threshold in units of the second phase.Thus, allow that predicted value exceedes first threshold, obtain the reduction effect of the power consumption in equipment 2, therefore there is following advantage in management system 10 simultaneously: the reduction effect obtaining the power consumption in equipment 2 while guaranteeing the comfortableness of user.
In addition, when to there is not the probability making the predicted value of prediction section 12 exceed first threshold be the operation mode of below the first feasible value, selection portion 13 in units of the second phase to make predicted value for the way selection operation mode below Second Threshold.Thus, even if when to there is not the probability making predicted value exceed first threshold be the operation mode of below the first feasible value, target also can be reduced to Second Threshold to obtain the reduction effect of the power consumption equipment 2 from first threshold by management system 10.
Further, when to there is not the predicted value making prediction section 12 be the operation mode of below Second Threshold, selection portion 13 is the way selection operation mode of below the second feasible value with the probability making predicted value exceed Second Threshold in units of the second phase.Thus, though when do not exist make predicted value be the operation mode of below Second Threshold, management system 10 also can allow that predicted value exceedes Second Threshold to a certain extent, and obtains the reduction effect of the power consumption in equipment 2 fully.
In addition, when to there is not the probability making predicted value exceed Second Threshold be the operation mode of below the second feasible value, selection portion 13 changes at least one operation mode in the multiple operation mode stored in storage part 11.Thus, even if when to there is not the probability making predicted value exceed Second Threshold be the operation mode of below the second feasible value, management system 10 also can change operation mode to obtain the reduction effect of the power consumption in equipment 2.
Or when to there is not the probability making the predicted value of prediction section 12 exceed Second Threshold be the operation mode of below the second feasible value, selection portion 13 changes Second Threshold.Thus, even if when to there is not the probability making predicted value exceed Second Threshold be the operation mode of below the second feasible value, management system 10 also can change Second Threshold to obtain the reduction effect of the power consumption in equipment 2.
Other 26S Proteasome Structure and Function is identical with execution mode 1.
In addition, in execution mode 1, selection portion 13 exceedes relative to first threshold the way selection operation mode that rate is below the first feasible value to make predicted value, in addition, exceedes the way selection operation mode that rate is below the second feasible value to make predicted value relative to Second Threshold.That is, in execution mode 1, selection portion 13 for first threshold and Second Threshold all to make predicted value exceed rate for feasible value (the first feasible value or the second feasible value) way selection operation mode below relative to threshold value.
On the other hand, in execution mode 2, selection portion 13 is the way selection operation mode of below the first feasible value with the probability making predicted value and exceed first threshold, in addition, take the probability making predicted value exceed Second Threshold as the way selection operation mode of below the second feasible value.That is, in execution mode 2, selection portion 13 for first threshold and Second Threshold all to make predicted value exceed the probability of threshold value for feasible value (the first feasible value or the second feasible value) way selection operation mode below.
But, be not limited to above-mentioned example, also can by appropriately combined for the structure of the structure of execution mode 1 and execution mode 2.Namely, selection portion 13 also can select operation mode as follows: for the side in first threshold and Second Threshold, predicted value is made to be below feasible value relative to the rate that exceedes of threshold value, for the opposing party in first threshold and Second Threshold, the probability making predicted value exceed threshold value is below feasible value.
Describe the present invention by several preferred implementations, but those skilled in the art carry out various amendment and distortion with can not departing from the present invention spirit and scope, i.e. claims originally.

Claims (9)

1. a management devices, is characterized in that, possesses:
Storage part, it stores the multiple operation mode for equipment;
Prediction section, it uses the actual value of the power consumption in the described equipment measured by measuring appliance, the accumulated value of the power consumption in the described equipment within the prediction first period second phase, and wherein, the described second phase is shorter than described first period;
Selection portion, it is when the predicted value of described prediction section exceedes first threshold, to make this predicted value be that the mode of below the first feasible value selects operation mode from described multiple operation mode relative to the probability that rate or this predicted value exceed described first threshold of exceeding of described first threshold in units of the described second phase; And
Control part, its according to the described operation mode selected by described selection portion to control described equipment.
2. management devices according to claim 1, is characterized in that,
Described selection portion is configured to: do not exist in described multiple operation mode make the predicted value of described prediction section relative to described first threshold to exceed probability that rate or this predicted value exceed described first threshold be the operation mode of below the first feasible value, to make this predicted value select operation mode for the mode below Second Threshold from described multiple operation mode in units of the described second phase, wherein, described Second Threshold is greater than described first threshold.
3. management devices according to claim 2, is characterized in that,
Described selection portion is configured to: do not exist when making the predicted value of described prediction section be the operation mode of below described Second Threshold in described multiple operation mode, to make this predicted value be that the mode of below the second feasible value selects operation mode from described multiple operation mode relative to the probability that rate or this predicted value exceed described Second Threshold of exceeding of described Second Threshold in units of the described second phase.
4. management devices according to claim 3, is characterized in that,
Described selection portion is configured to: do not exist in described multiple operation mode make the predicted value of described prediction section relative to described Second Threshold to exceed probability that rate or this predicted value exceed described Second Threshold be the operation mode of below the second feasible value, change in described storage part at least one operation mode in the described multiple operation mode stored.
5. management devices according to claim 3, is characterized in that,
Described selection portion is configured to: do not exist in described multiple operation mode make the predicted value of described prediction section relative to described Second Threshold to exceed probability that rate or this predicted value exceed described Second Threshold be the operation mode of below the second feasible value, change described Second Threshold.
6. the management devices according to any one in Claims 1 to 5, is characterized in that,
Described prediction section is configured to: use show the accumulated value of the power consumption predicted in described equipment the duration of runs of the specification information of described equipment and described equipment.
7. the management devices according to any one in claim 1 ~ 6, is characterized in that,
Also possess the acquisition unit obtaining meteorological data,
Described prediction section is configured to: use the described meteorological data got by described acquisition unit to predict the accumulated value of the power consumption in described equipment.
8. a device management method, is characterized in that, has:
Forecasting process, uses the actual value of the power consumption in the equipment measured by measuring appliance, the accumulated value of the power consumption in the described equipment within the prediction first period second phase, and wherein, the described second phase is shorter than described first period;
Selection course, when the predicted value of described forecasting process exceedes first threshold, to make this predicted value be that the mode of below the first feasible value selects operation mode from the multiple operation mode of described equipment relative to the probability that rate or this predicted value exceed described first threshold of exceeding of described first threshold in units of the described second phase; And
Control procedure, controls described equipment according to the described operation mode selected by described selection course.
9. a management system, is characterized in that, possesses:
Multiple equipment;
Measuring appliance, it measures the power consumption in described equipment; And
Management devices, it controls described equipment,
Wherein, described management devices has:
Storage part, it stores the multiple operation mode for described equipment;
Prediction section, it uses the actual value of the power consumption in the described equipment measured by described measuring appliance, the accumulated value of the power consumption in the described equipment within the prediction first period second phase, and wherein, the described second phase is shorter than described first period;
Selection portion, it is when the predicted value of described prediction section exceedes first threshold, to make this predicted value be that the mode of below the first feasible value selects operation mode from described multiple operation mode relative to the probability that rate or this predicted value exceed described first threshold of exceeding of described first threshold in units of the described second phase; And
Control part, its according to the described operation mode selected by described selection portion to control described equipment.
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