CN105184656A - Key device identification method for integrated device and power grid operation risks - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a key device identification method for integrated device operation risks and power grid operation safety risks, and belongs to the electric power system and automation technology field. According to a state of a power transmission and transformation device and a power grid plan operation condition, combined with predicted operation environment information, the failure probability of the power transmission and transformation device in a future appointed period is analyzed and determined; combined with a device failure asset loss rate, the asset loss risk caused by device failure is calculated; combined with influences of device failure on the power grid topology structure, a typical operation mode after device failure is formed, and through safe and stable analysis calculation, the prevention control cost risk of power grid operation safety is obtained; the integrated device and power grid operation safety risk is calculated and obtained, and therefore the key device in the period is identified. Through the method, a risk of the power transmission and transformation device state to the device self and power grid operation safety can be considered comprehensively, requirements of comprehensive assessment of power transmission and transformation device importance are met, the method lays the technical foundation for optimization and coordination of power transmission and transformation device maintenance and the power grid operation mode, and therefore the overall benefit of the power transmission and transformation device and power grid operation is raised.

Description

The key equipment recognition methods of package and operation of power networks risk

Technical field

The invention belongs to Power System and its Automation technical field, the present invention relates to the key equipment recognition methods of package and operation of power networks risk more precisely.

Background technology

Power transmission and transformation equipment state monitoring technology obtains tremendous development, is reached its maturity by the technology of assessment apparatus state analysis determination equipment failure rate, and thus repair based on condition of component to a certain degree can substitute prophylactic repair.At present, the power transmission and transforming equipment turnaround plan research based on risk is also in the starting stage, only takes into account the asset of equipments damaed cordition that equipment failure causes.In safe operation of electric network risk, relevant disaster causes the probability assessment of equipment failure and defends disaster on the impact of power network safety operation, in theoretical research and engineer applied, all achieve a lot of achievement.

Equipment catastrophic failure not only causes damage to himself, and is one of key factor of harm power network safety operation.Consider the impact of equipment failure on equipment self and power network safety operation, identify key equipment, reasonable arrangement overhauls, and can effectively prevent equipment deficiency to be evolved into equipment failure, thus at utmost reduces the harmful effect that equipment operation problem causes.

Summary of the invention

The object of the invention is: consider the significance level of equipment failure to the impact evaluation equipment of himself loss of assets risk and power network safety operation risk as a whole, the key equipment recognition methods of a kind of package and operation of power networks risk is provided.

Specifically, the present invention takes following technical scheme to realize, and comprises the following steps:

1) for the candidate device that will identify and period Δ T, obtain grid equipment virtual condition information and annual probability of malfunction, prediction running environment information and asset of equipments present worth information, obtain operation of power networks plan work information and model and the parameter of carrying out security and stability analysis needs;

2) to each equipment i needing to identify, the mean failure rate probability λ taking into account running environment impact in period Δ T is calculated _i.

Described λ _icalculating be divided into two steps:

The first step is, based on its annual probability of malfunction λ Y _i, be calculated as follows the mean failure rate probability λ T of equipment i in period Δ T _i.

$\mathrm{\λ}{T}_i=\frac{\mathrm{NT}*\mathrm{\λ}{Y}_i}{365}$

Wherein NT is the calendar number of days of period Δ T.

Second step is, in conjunction with the running environment information of prediction, is calculated as follows the mean failure rate probability λ taking into account running environment impact in period Δ T _i;

λ _i＝λT _i*α _i

Wherein α _ifor equipment failure running environment correlation factor, according to running environment to equipment failure influence degree value, usual home value is 1.0, and abnormal environment value is 1.2, and extreme environment value is 2.0.

3) to each equipment i needing to identify, according to the mean failure rate probability λ of equipment i in period Δ T _i, asset of equipments present worth A _iwith the asset of equipments loss percentage F that fault causes _i, be calculated as follows the loss of assets value-at-risk RE of equipment i in period Δ T _i;

RE _i＝λ _i*F _i*A _i

4) to each equipment i needing to identify, analyze its fault and situation is affected on topological structure of electric, if its fault can not cause any circuit, main transformer and reactive-load compensation equipment in electrical network to be stopped transport, then determine that its fault does not affect topological structure of electric, and by safe operation of electric network value-at-risk RP that equipment i causes at period Δ T internal fault _ibe set to 0, then go to step 6); If its fault will cause arbitrary circuit, main transformer or reactive-load compensation equipment in electrical network to be stopped transport, then determine that its fault has impact to topological structure of electric, follow-up execution step 5);

5) to the equipment i of fault effects topological structure of electric, the safe operation of electric network value-at-risk RP that its fault causes is calculated _i.

Described RP _icomputing method be described below:

In conjunction with operation of power networks plan work information in period Δ T, form the typical operation modes of plan every day; Bonding apparatus fault on the impact of topological structure of electric, the typical operation modes of every day after forming device i fault; Calculate based on security and stability analysis, after obtaining equipment i fault, under typical way, meet the prevention and control cost that " guiding rules of power system safety and stability " one-level safety and stability standard (hereinafter referred to as directive/guide primary standard) requires; According to the mean failure rate probability λ of equipment i in period Δ T _i, the safe operation of electric network value-at-risk RP that computing equipment i causes at period Δ T internal fault _i;

6) to each equipment i needing to identify, according to the equipment operation risk value RE of equipment i in period Δ T _ithe safe operation of electric network value-at-risk RP caused with its fault _i, be calculated as follows the integrated risk value RT taking into account equipment operation risk and operation of power networks risk _i;

RT _i＝RE _i+RP _i

7) to equipment complex value-at-risk RT _i, by from sorting to little greatly, the N that equipment complex value-at-risk is maximum _cindividual equipment is the key equipment in period Δ T.

Further, the safe operation of electric network value-at-risk RP that causes of described equipment failure _ibe calculated as follows

$R{P}_i={\mathrm{\λ}}_i*{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{j=1}^{\mathrm{NT}}{C}_{\mathrm{ij}}$

Described C _ijjth sky in period Δ T, after equipment i fault for meeting the power network safety operation prevention and control cost of directive/guide primary standard requirement.

Further, described prevention and control cost C _ijcalculating consider limited load cost, adjust and increase generated output cost and adjust and reduce generated output cost, be calculated as follows

C _ij＝CPL _j*EPL _ij+CPAG _j*EPAG _ij+CPDG _j*EPDG _ij

Described CPL _jfor regulation and control limited load electricity price, EPL _ijjth sky in period Δ T, after equipment i fault for meeting power network safety operation regulation and control limited load electricity (hereinafter referred to as limited load electricity) of directive/guide primary standard requirement; CPAG _jgenerated output electricity price is increased, EPAG for adjusting _ijbe jth sky in period Δ T, adjust for the power network safety operation meeting the requirement of directive/guide primary standard after equipment i fault and increase generated output electricity (hereinafter referred to as increasing generated output electricity); CPDG _jfor adjusting and reducing generated output electricity price, EPDG _ijjth sky in period Δ T, after equipment i fault for the power network safety operation meeting the requirement of directive/guide primary standard adjusts and reduce generated output electricity (hereinafter referred to as subtracting generated output electricity).

Further, the limited load electricity EPL in described period Δ T after jth sky, equipment i fault _ij, increase generated output electricity EPAG _ijwith subtract generated output electricity EPDG _ijcalculating, by day peak and low ebb two kinds of typical operation modes under prevention and control limited load, increase generated output and subtract based on generated output situation, 24 hours grid operating conditions equivalences are converted as peak load operation mode period hourage and low ebb method of operation period hourage, is calculated as follows

$\left\{\begin{array}{c}\mathrm{EP}{L}_{\mathrm{ij}}=\mathrm{TM}{A}_j*\mathrm{PMA}{L}_{\mathrm{ij}}+\mathrm{TM}{I}_j*\mathrm{PMI}{L}_{\mathrm{ij}}\\ \mathrm{EPG}{A}_{\mathrm{ij}}=\mathrm{TM}{A}_j*\mathrm{PMAG}{A}_{\mathrm{ij}}+\mathrm{TM}{I}_j*\mathrm{PMIG}{A}_{\mathrm{ij}}\\ \mathrm{EPG}{D}_{\mathrm{ij}}=\mathrm{TM}{A}_j*\mathrm{PMAG}{D}_{\mathrm{ij}}+\mathrm{TM}{I}_j*\mathrm{PMIG}{D}_{\mathrm{ij}}\end{array}\right.$

Wherein PMAL _ij, PMAGA _ijand PMAGD _ijunder the mode of peak, meet the power network safety operation prevention and control limited load power (hereinafter referred to as peak limited load power) of directive/guide primary standard requirement, increasing generated output power (hereinafter referred to as peak additional issue electric power) after being respectively jth sky in period Δ T, equipment i fault and subtract generated output power (subtracting generated output hereinafter referred to as peak); PMIL _ij, PMIGA _ijand PMIGD _ijunder base load, meet the power network safety operation prevention and control limited load power (hereinafter referred to as low ebb limited load power) of directive/guide primary standard requirement, increasing generated output power (hereinafter referred to as low ebb additional issue electric power) after being respectively jth sky in period Δ T, equipment i fault and subtract generated output power (subtracting generated output hereinafter referred to as low ebb); TMA _jand TMI _jfor the conversion of the 24 hours grid operating conditions in jth sky in period Δ T equivalence for peak mode runs hourage and the hourage of base load operation period of period.

Further, in described period Δ T after jth sky, equipment i fault under peak (low ebb) method of operation peak (low ebb) limited load power P MAL _ij(PMIL _ij), peak (low ebb) issue additional electrical power P MAGA _ij(PMIGA _ij) and peak (low ebb) subtract generated output PMAGD _ij(PMIGD _ij) computing method be described below:

Based on peak (low ebb) method of operation of jth sky plan in period Δ T, take into account equipment i fault to the impact of topological structure of electric, form new height (new low ebb) method of operation; By the requirement of directive/guide primary standard, respectively safety and stability evaluation is carried out to new height (low ebb) method of operation, if safety and stability level meets the demands under new height (new low ebb) mode, then peak (low ebb) limited load power, peak (low ebb) are issued additional electric power and peak (low ebb) and subtract generated output and be set to 0; If safety and stability level can not meet the demands under new height (new low ebb) mode, then carry out Control Measure calculating, obtain peak (low ebb) limited load power, peak (low ebb) issues additional electric power and peak (low ebb) subtracts generated output.

Beneficial effect of the present invention is as follows:

The present invention is according to power transmission and transformation equipment state and electrical network plan operating condition information, in conjunction with prediction running environment information, the asset of equipments loss risk that in the following set period of analysis and evaluation, power transmission and transforming equipment fault causes and the prevention and control cost risk of safe operation of electric network, calculate the risk of package self and safe operation of electric network, the significance level of assessment apparatus, thus identify the key equipment in this period.The present invention can consider the risk of power transmission and transforming equipment fault to equipment self and safe operation of electric network, adapt to the requirement of Comprehensive assessment apparatus importance, for optimization coordination power transmission and transforming equipment maintenance and power system operating mode establish technical foundation, thus can effectively prevent equipment deficiency to be evolved into equipment failure, at utmost reduce the harmful effect that equipment operation problem causes, improve the whole synthesis benefit of power transmission and transforming equipment self and operation of power networks.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram of the inventive method.

Fig. 2 is the detail flowchart of step 5 in the inventive method.

Embodiment

Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing 1 and accompanying drawing 2, the inventive method is described in detail.

The step 1 described in Fig. 1 obtains period information to be assessed, facility information, environmental information and operation of power networks information.Wherein, period information to be assessed refer to according to from date and Close Date during this period of time in situation identification key equipment; Facility information comprises the loss of assets rate that the virtual condition of equipment and corresponding annual probability of malfunction, asset of equipments present worth and equipment failure cause; Environmental information comprises the physical environment condition information that the equipment that affects runs; Operation of power networks information comprises plan peak load operation mode and the low ebb method of operation of every day in the period to be assessed, and carries out the model and parameter that security and stability analysis calculates needs.

To each candidate's identification equipment, the step 2 implementing respectively to describe in Fig. 1, to step 6, calculates the integrated risk value that it takes into account equipment Risk and operation of power networks risk.

The step 2 described in Fig. 1 is the annual probabilities of malfunction based on reflection equipment i virtual condition, and in conjunction with the running environment information of prediction, computing equipment i is mean failure rate probability λ in period Δ T _i.Described λ _icalculating be divided into two steps:

The first step is, based on its annual probability of malfunction λ Y _i, be calculated as follows the mean failure rate probability λ T of equipment i in period Δ T _i.

$\mathrm{\λ}{T}_i=\frac{\mathrm{NT}*\mathrm{\λ}{Y}_i}{365}$

Wherein NT is the calendar number of days of period Δ T.

Second step is, in conjunction with the running environment information of prediction, is calculated as follows the mean failure rate probability λ taking into account running environment impact in period Δ T _i;

λ _i＝λT _i*α _i

Described α _ifor equipment failure running environment correlation factor, according to running environment to equipment failure influence degree value, usual home value is 1.0, and abnormal environment value is 1.2, and extreme environment value is 2.0.

The step 3 described in Fig. 1 is asset of equipments loss percentages that mean failure rate probability, cash equivalent value and fault according to equipment i in period Δ T cause, the loss of assets value-at-risk of computing equipment i self.) to each equipment i needing to identify, according to the mean failure rate probability λ of equipment i in period Δ T _i, asset of equipments present worth A _iwith the asset of equipments loss percentage F that fault causes _i, be calculated as follows the loss of assets value-at-risk RE of equipment i in period Δ T _i;

RE _i＝λ _i*F _i*A _i

The step 4 described in Fig. 1 is the impacts on topological structure of electric of analytical equipment fault, and according to analysis result determination subsequent step flow process, and the method for safe operation of electric network value-at-risk that computing equipment fault causes.

To each equipment i needing to identify, analyze its fault and situation is affected on topological structure of electric, if its fault can not cause any circuit, main transformer and reactive-load compensation equipment in electrical network to be stopped transport, then determine that its fault does not affect topological structure of electric, and by safe operation of electric network value-at-risk RP that equipment i causes at period Δ T internal fault _ibe set to 0, then go to step 6; If its fault will cause arbitrary circuit, main transformer or reactive-load compensation equipment in electrical network to be stopped transport, then determine that its fault has impact to topological structure of electric, follow-up execution step 5.

The step 5 described in Fig. 1 be calculate in period Δ T, the safe operation of electric network value-at-risk that causes of equipment i fault.

Basic process is: in conjunction with operation of power networks plan work information in period Δ T, forms typical operation modes every day of plan; Bonding apparatus fault on the impact of topological structure of electric, the typical operation modes of every day after forming device i fault; Calculate based on security and stability analysis, after obtaining equipment i fault, under typical way, meet the prevention and control cost that " guiding rules of power system safety and stability " one-level safety and stability standard (hereinafter referred to as directive/guide primary standard) requires; According to the mean failure rate probability λ of equipment i in period Δ T _i, the safe operation of electric network value-at-risk RP that computing equipment i causes at period Δ T internal fault _i.

Step 5 point is subdivided into 4 steps, introduces the enforcement of step 5 below in conjunction with Fig. 2:

For the every day in period Δ T, perform the step 5-1 to 5-3 in Fig. 2.

The step 5-1 described in Fig. 2 is for the jth sky in period Δ T, based on the electrical network typical operation modes of plan, take into account the impact of equipment failure on topological structure of electric, the limited load power that the prevention and control of analytical calculation electricity net safety stable need, increase generated output power and subtract generated output power.

In described period Δ T after jth sky, equipment i fault under peak (low ebb) method of operation peak (low ebb) limited load power P MAL _ij(PMIL _ij), peak (low ebb) issue additional electrical power P MAGA _ij(PMIGA _ij) and peak (low ebb) subtract generated output PMAGD _ij(PMIGD _ij) computing method be described below:

Based on 2 kinds, peak (low ebb) typical operation modes of jth sky plan in period Δ T, take into account equipment i fault to the impact of topological structure of electric, form the 2 kinds of typical operation modes taking into account equipment failure impact: new height (new low ebb) method of operation; By the requirement of directive/guide primary standard, respectively safety and stability evaluation is carried out to new height (low ebb) method of operation, if safety and stability level meets the demands under new height (new low ebb) mode, then peak (low ebb) limited load power, peak (low ebb) are issued additional electric power and peak (low ebb) and subtract generated output and be set to 0; If safety and stability level can not meet the demands under new height (new low ebb) mode, then carry out Control Measure calculating, obtain peak (low ebb) limited load power, peak (low ebb) issues additional electric power and peak (low ebb) subtracts generated output.

The step 5-2 described in Fig. 2 is for the jth sky in period Δ T, based on peak (low ebb) the limited load power P MAL that step 5-1 obtains _ij(PMIL _ij), peak (low ebb) issue additional electrical power P MAGA _ij(PMIGA _ij) and peak (low ebb) subtract generated output power P MAGD _ij(PMIGD _ij), calculate prevention and control limit power electricity, increase generated output electricity and subtract generated output electricity.

Limited load electricity EPL in described period Δ T after jth sky, equipment i fault _ij, increase generated output electricity EPAG _ijwith subtract generated output electricity EPDG _ijcomputing method be: with day peak and low ebb two kinds of typical operation modes under prevention and control limited load power P MAL _ij(PMIL _ij), increase generated output power P MAGA _ij(PMIGA _ij) and subtract generated output power situation PMAGD _ij(PMIGD _ij) based on, be peak load operation mode period hourage TMA by the conversion of 24 hours grid operating conditions equivalences _jwith low ebb method of operation period hourage TMI _j, be calculated as follows

$\left\{\begin{array}{c}\mathrm{EP}{L}_{\mathrm{ij}}=\mathrm{TM}{A}_j*\mathrm{PMA}{L}_{\mathrm{ij}}+\mathrm{TM}{I}_j*\mathrm{PMI}{L}_{\mathrm{ij}}\\ \mathrm{EPG}{A}_{\mathrm{ij}}=\mathrm{TM}{A}_j*\mathrm{PMAG}{A}_{\mathrm{ij}}+\mathrm{TM}{I}_j*\mathrm{PMIG}{A}_{\mathrm{ij}}\\ \mathrm{EPG}{D}_{\mathrm{ij}}=\mathrm{TM}{A}_j*\mathrm{PMAG}{D}_{\mathrm{ij}}+\mathrm{TM}{I}_j*\mathrm{PMIG}{D}_{\mathrm{ij}}\end{array}\right.$

The step 5-3 described in Fig. 2 is for the jth sky in period Δ T, calculates the electricity net safety stable prevention and control cost considered limited load cost, tune increasing generated output cost and adjust and reduce generated output cost.

Limit power electricity according to the prevention and control that step 5-2 obtains, increase generated output electricity and subtract generated output electricity, in conjunction with electricity price information, be calculated as follows electricity net safety stable prevention and control cost C _ij

C _ij＝CPL _j*EPL _ij+CPAG _j*EPAG _ij+CPDG _j*EPDG _ij

Described CPL _jfor regulation and control limited load electricity price CPAG _jgenerated output electricity price is increased, CPDG for adjusting _jfor adjusting and reducing generated output electricity price.

To every day, all execution of step 5-1 to 5-3 in period Δ T, obtain the electricity net safety stable prevention and control cost C of every day _ijafter, perform subsequent step.

The step 5-4 described in Fig. 2 is the electricity net safety stable prevention and control cost C based on aforementioned every day _ijas a result, the electricity net safety stable prevention and control cost of every day in accumulative period Δ T, bonding apparatus mean failure rate probability, total safe operation of electric network value-at-risk that computing equipment i fault causes.

The safe operation of electric network value-at-risk RP that described equipment failure causes _ibe calculated as follows

$R{P}_i={\mathrm{\λ}}_i*{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{j=1}^{\mathrm{NT}}{C}_{\mathrm{ij}}$

By above-mentioned steps 2 to step 5, after obtaining equipment i fault after its loss of assets value-at-risk and the safe operation of electric network value-at-risk that causes thereof, perform subsequent step.

The step 6 described in Fig. 1 is for equipment i, takes into account the integrated risk value of equipment Risk and safe operation of electric network risk.

The safe operation of electric network value-at-risk that the equipment failure that the asset of equipments loss risk value obtained based on abovementioned steps 3 and step 5 obtain causes, computing equipment i is at the integrated risk value of period Δ T.Described integrated risk value RT _ibe calculated as follows.

RT _i＝RE _i+RP _i

By above-mentioned steps 2 to step 6, after obtaining the integrated risk value of all candidate's identification equipments, perform subsequent step.

The step 7 described in Fig. 1 is the integrated risk value identification key equipments according to all candidate's identification equipments.According to step 6) each candidate's identification equipment of obtaining takes into account the integrated risk value of asset of equipments loss risk and safe operation of electric network risk, by integrated risk value from sorting to little greatly, comes N above _cindividual equipment is the key equipment in period Δ T.Described N _ckey equipment quantity.

In sum, the key equipment recognition methods of a kind of package operation risk of the present invention and safe operation of electric network risk, according to power transmission and transformation equipment state and electrical network plan operating condition, in conjunction with the running environment information of prediction, analyze and determine power transmission and transforming equipment probability of malfunction in following set period; Bonding apparatus fault loss of assets rate, the loss of assets risk that computing equipment fault causes; Bonding apparatus fault affects situation to topological structure of electric, and the typical operation modes after forming device fault, is calculated by security and stability analysis, obtains the prevention and control cost risk of safe operation of electric network; Calculate the risk of package self and safe operation of electric network, thus identify the key equipment in this period.The present invention can consider the risk of power transmission and transformation equipment state to equipment self and safe operation of electric network, adapt to the requirement of comprehensive assessment power transmission and transforming equipment importance, for optimization coordination power transmission and transforming equipment maintenance and power system operating mode establish technical foundation, thus improve the whole synthesis benefit of power transmission and transforming equipment and operation of power networks.

Although the present invention with preferred embodiment openly as above, embodiment is not of the present invention for limiting.Without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, any equivalence change done or retouching, belong to the protection domain of the present invention equally.Therefore the content that protection scope of the present invention should define with the claim of the application is standard.

Claims (5)

1. the key equipment recognition methods of package and operation of power networks risk, is characterized in that, comprise the following steps:

Step 1: for the candidate device that will identify and period Δ T, obtain grid equipment virtual condition information and annual probability of malfunction, prediction running environment information and asset of equipments present worth information, obtain operation of power networks plan work information and model and the parameter of carrying out security and stability analysis needs;

Step 2: to each equipment i needing to identify, calculate the mean failure rate probability λ taking into account running environment impact in period Δ T _i.；

Based on the annual probability of malfunction λ Y of reflection device physical status _i, be calculated as follows the mean failure rate probability λ T of equipment i in period Δ T _i;

${\mathrm{\λT}}_i=\frac{\mathrm{NT}*{\mathrm{\λY}}_i}{365}$

Wherein NT is the calendar number of days of period Δ T;

In conjunction with the running environment information of prediction, be calculated as follows the mean failure rate probability λ taking into account running environment impact in period Δ T _i;

λ _i＝λT _i*α _i

Wherein α _ifor equipment failure running environment correlation factor, according to running environment to equipment failure influence degree value;

Step 3: to each equipment i needing to identify, according to the mean failure rate probability λ of equipment i in period Δ T _i, asset of equipments present worth A _iwith the asset of equipments loss percentage F that fault causes _i, be calculated as follows the operation risk value RE of equipment i in period Δ T _i;

RE _i＝λ _i*F _i*A _i

Step 4: to each equipment i needing to identify, analyze its fault and situation is affected on topological structure of electric, if its fault can not cause any circuit, main transformer and reactive-load compensation equipment in electrical network to be stopped transport, then determine that its fault does not affect topological structure of electric, and by safe operation of electric network value-at-risk RP that equipment i causes at period Δ T internal fault _ibe set to 0, then go to step 6; If its fault will cause arbitrary circuit, main transformer or reactive-load compensation equipment in electrical network to be stopped transport, then determine that its fault has impact to topological structure of electric, follow-up execution step 5;

Step 5: to the equipment i of fault effects topological structure of electric, calculates the safe operation of electric network value-at-risk RP that its fault causes _i;

In conjunction with operation of power networks plan work information in period Δ T, form the typical operation modes of plan every day; Bonding apparatus fault is on the impact of topological structure of electric, the typical operation modes of every day after forming device i fault, calculate based on security and stability analysis, " guiding rules of power system safety and stability " one-level safety and stability standard is met under obtaining these modes, be called for short directive/guide primary standard, the prevention and control cost required, according to the mean failure rate probability λ of equipment i in period Δ T _i, the safe operation of electric network value-at-risk RP that computing equipment i causes at period Δ T internal fault _i;

Step 6: to each equipment i needing to identify, according to the equipment operation risk value RE of equipment i in period Δ T _ithe safe operation of electric network value-at-risk RP caused with its fault _i, be calculated as follows the integrated risk value RT taking into account equipment operation risk and operation of power networks risk _i;

RT _i＝RE _i+RP _i

Step 7: to equipment complex value-at-risk RT _i, from sorting to little greatly, the N that equipment complex value-at-risk is maximum _cindividual equipment is the key equipment in period Δ T.

2. the key equipment recognition methods of package according to claim 1 and operation of power networks risk, is characterized in that:

Be calculated as follows the safe operation of electric network value-at-risk RP that equipment failure causes _i;

${\mathrm{RP}}_i={\mathrm{\λ}}_i*{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{j=1}^{\mathrm{NT}}{C}_{\mathrm{ij}}$

Wherein, C _ijjth sky in period Δ T, after equipment i fault for meeting the power network safety operation prevention and control cost of directive/guide primary standard requirement.

3. the key equipment recognition methods of package according to claim 2 and operation of power networks risk, is characterized in that:

Described prevention and control cost C _ijcalculating consider limited load cost, adjust and increase generated output cost and adjust and reduce generated output cost, be calculated as follows;

C _ij＝CPL _j*EPL _ij+CPAG _j*EPAG _ij+CPDG _j*EPDG _ij

Wherein CPL _jfor regulation and control limited load electricity price, EPL _ijjth sky in period Δ T, after equipment i fault for meeting the power network safety operation regulation and control limited load electricity of directive/guide primary standard requirement, be called for short limited load electricity; CPAG _jgenerated output electricity price is increased, EPAG for adjusting _ijbe jth sky in period Δ T, adjust for the power network safety operation meeting the requirement of directive/guide primary standard after equipment i fault and increase generated output electricity, be called for short and increase generated output electricity; CPDG _jfor adjusting and reducing generated output electricity price, EPDG _ijjth sky in period Δ T, after equipment i fault for the power network safety operation meeting the requirement of directive/guide primary standard adjusts and reduce generated output electricity, be called for short and subtract generated output electricity.

4. the key equipment recognition methods of package according to claim 3 and operation of power networks risk, is characterized in that:

Limited load electricity EPL in described period Δ T after jth sky, equipment i fault _ij, increase generated output electricity EPAG _ijwith subtract generated output electricity EPDG _ijcalculating, by day peak and low ebb two kinds of typical operation modes under prevention and control limited load, increase generated output and subtract based on generated output situation, 24 hours grid operating conditions equivalences are converted as peak load operation mode period hourage and low ebb method of operation period hourage, is calculated as follows;

$\left\{\begin{array}{c}{\mathrm{EPL}}_{\mathrm{ij}}={\mathrm{TMA}}_j*{\mathrm{PMAL}}_{\mathrm{ij}}+{\mathrm{TMI}}_j*{\mathrm{PMIL}}_{\mathrm{ij}}\\ {\mathrm{EPGA}}_{\mathrm{ij}}={\mathrm{TMA}}_j*{\mathrm{PMAGA}}_{\mathrm{ij}}+{\mathrm{TMI}}_j*{\mathrm{PMIGA}}_{\mathrm{ij}}\\ {\mathrm{EPGD}}_{\mathrm{ij}}={\mathrm{TMA}}_j*{\mathrm{PMAGD}}_{\mathrm{ij}}+{\mathrm{TMI}}_j*{\mathrm{PMIGD}}_{\mathrm{ij}}\end{array}\right.$

Wherein PMAL _ij, PMAGA _ijand PMAGD _ijunder the mode of peak, the power network safety operation prevention and control limited load power of directive/guide primary standard requirement is met after being respectively jth sky in period Δ T, equipment i fault, be called for short peak limited load power, increase generated output power, be called for short peak additional issue electric power and subtract generated output power, being called for short peak and subtracting generated output; PMIL _ij, PMIGA _ijand PMIGD _ijunder base load, the power network safety operation prevention and control limited load power of directive/guide primary standard requirement is met after being respectively jth sky in period Δ T, equipment i fault, be called for short low ebb limited load power, increase generated output power, be called for short low ebb additional issue electric power and subtract generated output power, being called for short low ebb and subtracting generated output; TMA _jand TMI _jfor the conversion of the 24 hours grid operating conditions in jth sky in period Δ T equivalence for peak mode runs hourage and the hourage of base load operation period of period.

5. the key equipment recognition methods of package according to claim 4 and operation of power networks risk, is characterized in that:

In described period Δ T after jth sky, equipment i fault under peak load operation mode peak limited load power P MAL _ij, peak additional issue electrical power P MAGA _ijgenerated output PMAGD is subtracted with peak _ijcomputing method be, based on the peak load operation mode of jth sky plan in period Δ T, take into account equipment i fault to the impact of topological structure of electric, form the new height method of operation, by the requirement of directive/guide primary standard, respectively safety and stability evaluation is carried out to the new height method of operation, if safety and stability level meets the demands under new height mode, then peak limited load power, peak additional issue electric power and peak is subtracted generated output and be set to 0; If safety and stability level can not meet the demands under new height mode, then carry out Control Measure calculating, obtain peak limited load power, peak additional issue electric power and peak and subtract generated output;

Or, in described period Δ T after jth sky, equipment i fault under the low ebb method of operation low ebb limited load power P MIL _ij, low ebb additional issue electrical power P MIGA _ijgenerated output PMIGD is subtracted with low ebb _ijcomputing method be, based on the low ebb method of operation of jth sky plan in period Δ T, take into account equipment i fault to the impact of topological structure of electric, form the new low ebb method of operation, by the requirement of directive/guide primary standard, respectively safety and stability evaluation is carried out to the new low ebb method of operation, if safety and stability level meets the demands under new base load, then low ebb limited load power, low ebb additional issue electric power and low ebb is subtracted generated output and be set to 0; If safety and stability level can not meet the demands under new base load, then carry out Control Measure calculating, obtain low ebb limited load power, low ebb additional issue electric power and low ebb and subtract generated output.