CN105184471A - Method and device for online monitoring of project construction period - Google Patents
Method and device for online monitoring of project construction period Download PDFInfo
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- CN105184471A CN105184471A CN201510536669.7A CN201510536669A CN105184471A CN 105184471 A CN105184471 A CN 105184471A CN 201510536669 A CN201510536669 A CN 201510536669A CN 105184471 A CN105184471 A CN 105184471A
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- 238000004519 manufacturing process Methods 0.000 claims description 31
- 238000012216 screening Methods 0.000 claims description 17
- 238000012545 processing Methods 0.000 claims description 11
- 230000008859 change Effects 0.000 claims description 10
- 238000012806 monitoring device Methods 0.000 claims description 6
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
- Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
- Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method and a device for online monitoring of project construction periods, so as to monitor construction periods of power grid construction projects. The method comprises: selecting a plurality of base projects whose voltage classes and project types are the same with those of a to-be-monitored project from a project database, determining construction period of each base project, furthermore, based on the construction period of the base projects and the number of the base projects, establishing a probability density curve based on the construction period of the projects in the voltage classes and project types, and determining a rational construction period of the to-be-monitored project according to the probability density curve, so as to monitor the to-be-monitored project.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the field of project management, in particular to a project construction period online monitoring method and device.
Background
The solution of the existing enterprise operation online monitoring system at home and abroad is usually realized based on a business process monitoring platform (business activity monitor), a business process management platform (business process management) and a data quality management tool (DataQualityCube), and the system provides the functions of enterprise operation analysis, online supervision and inspection and the like, realizes the monitoring, analysis and inspection of enterprise business activities and core business resource activities, develops the operation analysis of the aspects of company comprehensive performance, development capability, competition capability, risk control and the like, and warns and coordinates the problems of abnormal activities and problems existing in the company operation management.
Enterprises can develop corresponding online monitoring systems according to self operating characteristics. However, currently, no monitoring method or system can monitor the project duration of the power grid infrastructure project.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of this, the invention provides an online project period monitoring method and device, so as to monitor the project period of a power grid infrastructure project.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme:
an on-line monitoring method for project construction period comprises the following steps:
acquiring the voltage grade and the project type of a project to be monitored;
screening a plurality of reference items which are the same as the voltage grade and the project type of the project to be monitored from a project database, and determining the construction period of each reference item;
constructing a probability density curve of the construction period based on the construction period of each reference project and the number of the reference projects;
determining a reasonable construction period of the project to be monitored according to the construction period corresponding to the two points with the maximum probability change rate speed increase on the probability density curve;
and monitoring the actual construction period of the project to be monitored by utilizing the reasonable construction period of the project to be monitored.
Preferably, the determining the construction period of each reference project includes:
acquiring actual start-up reports and actual production reports of all projects;
matching and fusing the actual start report and the actual production report according to the project code of each reference project to generate a first data list;
according to a preset data processing rule, eliminating invalid data of the first data list;
and calculating the construction period of each reference project according to the actual start date and the actual production date of each reference project in the first data list.
Preferably, the constructing a probability density curve of the construction period based on the construction period of each reference project and the number of the reference projects includes:
determining a plurality of coordinate points by taking the construction period as an abscissa and the number of items of the reference item as an ordinate;
and fitting the plurality of coordinate points by using a kernel density function to construct a probability density curve of the construction period.
Preferably, the kernel density function is:
wherein,is a gaussian kernel function and h is the optimal window width.
Preferably, the determining a reasonable construction period of the project to be monitored according to the construction period corresponding to the two points with the maximum probability change rate on the probability density curve includes:
determining a probability density function expression of the probability density curve by using a Gaussian function;
performing third-order derivation on the probability density function expression, and solving a first point and a second point of which the third-order derivative of the probability density expression is zero, wherein the construction period corresponding to the first point is a first construction period, and the construction period corresponding to the second point is a second construction period which is greater than the first construction period;
and taking the construction period range which is more than or equal to the first construction period and less than or equal to the second construction period as a reasonable construction period of the project to be monitored.
Preferably, when the project to be monitored is put into production in the monitoring period, the monitoring of the actual construction period of the project to be monitored by using the reasonable construction period of the project to be monitored includes:
if the actual construction period of the project to be monitored is longer than the second construction period, determining that the project to be monitored is a different-action project with an overlong construction period;
and if the actual construction period of the project to be monitored is shorter than the first construction period, determining that the project to be monitored is a different-movement project with too short construction period.
Preferably, when the project to be monitored is not put into production in the monitoring period, the monitoring of the actual construction period of the project to be monitored by using the reasonable construction period of the project to be monitored includes:
and if the sum of the actual construction period of the project to be monitored and the preset time period is greater than the second construction period, determining that the project to be monitored is an early warning project with an overlong construction period.
An on-line monitoring device for project construction period comprises:
the information acquisition unit is used for acquiring the voltage grade and the project type of the project to be monitored;
the screening unit is used for screening a plurality of reference items which are the same as the voltage grade and the project type of the project to be monitored from a project database and determining the construction period of each reference item;
the probability density curve building unit is used for building a probability density curve of the construction period based on the construction period of each reference project and the number of the reference projects;
the reasonable construction period determining unit is used for determining the reasonable construction period of the project to be monitored according to the construction period corresponding to the two points with the maximum probability change rate on the probability density curve;
and the monitoring unit is used for monitoring the actual construction period of the project to be monitored by utilizing the reasonable construction period of the project to be monitored.
Preferably, the screening unit includes: screening a reference project determining subunit of a plurality of reference projects which are the same as the voltage grade and the project type of the project to be monitored from a project database and a construction period determining subunit for determining the construction period of each reference project;
wherein, the construction period determination subunit comprises:
the data acquisition subunit is used for acquiring actual start-up reports and actual production reports of all projects;
the data fusion unit is used for matching and fusing the actual start report and the actual production report according to the project code of each reference project to generate a first data list;
the data processing subunit is used for eliminating the invalid data of the first data list according to a preset data processing rule;
and the calculating subunit is used for calculating the construction period of each reference project according to the actual start date and the actual production date of each reference project in the first data list.
Preferably, the probability density curve constructing unit includes:
a coordinate system establishing subunit, configured to determine a plurality of coordinate points by using the construction period as an abscissa and the number of items of the reference item as an ordinate;
and the linear fitting unit is used for fitting the plurality of coordinate points by utilizing a kernel density function to construct a probability density curve of the construction period.
According to the technical scheme, the invention discloses a project construction period online monitoring method and device, which are used for monitoring the construction period of a power grid infrastructure project. The method includes the steps of selecting a plurality of reference projects corresponding to voltage levels of projects to be monitored and project types from a project database, and determining the construction period of each reference project. And then, based on the construction period of the reference project and the number of projects of the reference project, constructing a probability density curve of the construction period of the project based on the voltage level and the project type, and determining a reasonable construction period of the project to be monitored according to the probability density curve so as to monitor the project to be monitored.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present application or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings needed to be used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below, it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only embodiments of the present application, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to the provided drawings without creative efforts.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a project schedule on-line monitoring method according to an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart illustrating a project data processing method according to another embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of an online project duration monitoring device according to another embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 4 shows a schematic structural diagram of a screening unit of an online project duration monitoring device according to another embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present application, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present application, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present application.
Referring to fig. 1, a flow chart of a project duration online monitoring method disclosed by an embodiment of the invention is shown.
As can be seen from fig. 1, the method includes:
s101: and acquiring the voltage grade and the engineering type of the project to be monitored.
The project types in the power grid infrastructure project comprise a power transformation project, a line project, a power transmission and transformation project and the like, and the voltage grades of different projects may be different. Such as: and (5) newly building a transformer project at 220 kV.
S102: and screening a plurality of reference items which are the same as the voltage grade and the project type of the project to be monitored from a project database, and determining the construction period of each reference item.
The construction period is a time period from the start of a construction project to the entire construction period of a production.
103: and constructing a probability density curve of the construction period based on the construction period of each reference project and the number of the reference projects.
The specific process is as follows:
and determining a plurality of coordinate points by taking the construction period as an abscissa and the number of items of the reference item as an ordinate. Because the construction period data of the power grid infrastructure project approximately obeys unimodal normal distribution, the plurality of coordinate points can be fitted by adopting a kernel density function to construct a probability density curve of the construction period.
It should be noted that the probability density function is one of nonparametric inspection methods for estimating an unknown probability density function in probability theory, can trigger and research the distribution characteristics of data from a data sample, is suitable for solving the problem of curve fitting of the probability density function, and has a kernel function expression as follows:
wherein,is a gaussian kernel function and h is the optimal window width.
104: and determining the reasonable construction period of the project to be monitored according to the construction period corresponding to the two points with the maximum probability change rate speed increase on the probability density curve.
It should be noted that the reasonable construction period refers to a period for which a project construction unit is specified to ensure the safety and quality of engineering construction, improve the construction efficiency and benefit, and integrate the factors such as voltage level, climate conditions, process requirements, external environment, equipment supply and the like, and the unit capital construction project should be developed.
Optionally, after the probability density curve of the construction period is obtained through the kernel function, a large number of points, namely, an array (x) of continuous values and probability values, are extracted from the curvei,yi). Since the construction period data is approximately in a normal distribution form, the data is in an array (x)i,yi) On the basis, a Gaussian function is adoptedThe probability density function expression can be estimated.
On the probability density curve of the unimodal normal distribution state, there are two symmetrical points X1And X2At these two points, the random variable X has the highest rate of increase in probability change rate, that is, the sample falls within the interval formed by the two points with the highest probability, the sample falling outside the interval is the event with the lower probability, and the point X is the event with the lower probability1Corresponding first construction period and point X2Corresponding second construction periodAnd forming a reasonable construction period of the project to be monitored. It should be noted that, for convenience of description, it is defined that the first construction period is smaller than the second construction period, that is, the first construction period is a lower limit of a reasonable period of the project to be detected, and the second construction period is an upper limit of the reasonable period of the project to be monitored.
The geometric meaning of the probability rate of change acceleration is the second derivative, X, of the probability density function1And X2I.e. the maximum point of the second derivative. The maximum point of the second derivative is required, and the slope of the maximum point needs to be solved as zero. Namely, the point of the probability density function with the third derivative of zero is solved, and the optimal construction period interval endpoint can be obtained.
105: and monitoring the actual construction period of the project to be monitored by utilizing the reasonable construction period of the project to be monitored.
When the project to be monitored is produced in the monitoring period, if the actual construction period (actual production time-actual start-up time) of the project to be monitored is greater than the second construction period, determining that the project to be monitored is a different-movement project with an excessively long construction period.
And if the actual construction period (actual production time-actual working time) of the project to be monitored is less than the first construction period, determining that the project to be monitored is a different-movement project with short construction period.
When the project to be monitored is not put into production in the monitoring period, if the sum of the actual construction period of the project to be monitored and the time of a preset time period (the current date-the actual start time + the preset time period) is greater than the second construction period, determining that the project to be monitored is an early warning project with an overlong construction period, and realizing early warning of project transaction.
According to the technical scheme, the invention discloses an online project construction period monitoring method, which is used for monitoring the construction period of a power grid infrastructure project. The method includes the steps of selecting a plurality of reference projects corresponding to voltage levels of projects to be monitored and project types from a project database, and determining the construction period of each reference project. And then, based on the construction period of the reference project and the number of projects of the reference project, constructing a probability density curve of the construction period of the project based on the voltage level and the project type, and determining a reasonable construction period of the project to be monitored according to the probability density curve so as to monitor the project to be monitored.
It should be noted that project data of projects are usually stored in different data lists during actual execution, such as an actual operation list and an actual production list. The data types and data contents contained in the actual start-up list and the actual production list are different from each other, and therefore, in the actual processing, the project data in the lists need to be processed and integrated.
Referring to fig. 2, a flow chart of a project data processing method according to another embodiment of the invention is shown.
As can be seen from fig. 2, in this embodiment, the method includes:
s201: and acquiring actual start-up reports and actual production reports of all projects.
S202: and matching and fusing the actual start report and the actual production report according to the project codes of all the reference projects to generate a first data list.
And fusing project data of the reference project with the same project code (namely the same project) in the actual start-up report and the actual production report to obtain information such as the project name, the voltage level, the project type, the affiliated unit, the actual start-up time, the actual production time and the like of the project.
S203: and according to a preset data processing rule, eliminating invalid data of the first data list.
Alternatively, the clearing and integration of data may be performed according to the following procedure.
1) Using item code, year, month and unit name as main key to remove repeated line record
2) And deleting redundant fields such as planned start time, planned production time, repeatable time of a research lot, approval document numbers and the like.
3) And adjusting information such as project names, affiliated units, voltage levels and the like according to preset specifications.
4) The data quality is screened and processed according to the following rules
S204: and calculating the construction period of each reference project according to the actual start date and the actual production date of each reference project in the first data list.
Referring to fig. 3, a schematic structural diagram of an online project duration monitoring device according to another embodiment of the present invention is shown.
As can be seen from fig. 3, the apparatus includes: the system comprises an information acquisition unit 1, a screening unit 2, a probability density curve construction unit 3, a reasonable construction period determination unit 4 and a monitoring unit 5.
The information acquisition unit is used for acquiring the voltage grade and the project type of a project to be monitored. The screening unit screens a plurality of reference items which are the same as the voltage grade and the project type of the project to be monitored from a project database according to the voltage grade and the project type of the project to be monitored, and determines the construction period of each reference item.
The probability density curve building unit builds a probability density curve of the construction period based on the construction period of each reference project and the number of the reference projects.
And then, the reasonable construction period determining unit determines the reasonable construction period of the project to be monitored according to the construction period corresponding to the two points with the maximum probability change rate speed increase on the probability density curve.
And the monitoring unit monitors the actual construction period of the project to be monitored by utilizing the reasonable construction period of the project to be monitored.
It should be noted that, the specific execution process of each execution unit in the above apparatus and the execution process items in the method embodiments are not described herein again.
It should be noted that, in practical applications, project data needs to be processed because the project data is stored in different data lists, such as an actual operation list and an actual production list.
Referring to fig. 4, a schematic structural diagram of a screening unit of an online project duration monitoring device is shown according to another embodiment of the present invention.
Different from the previous embodiment of the apparatus, in the present embodiment, the screening unit of the apparatus specifically includes: a benchmark item determination subunit 21 and a construction period determination subunit 22.
The reference item determining subunit is used for screening a plurality of reference items which are the same as the voltage level and the project type of the project to be monitored from a project database. The construction period determining subunit is used for determining the construction period of each benchmark project.
Specifically, the construction period determination subunit includes: a data acquisition sub-unit 221, a data fusion sub-unit 222, a data processing sub-unit 223 and a calculation sub-unit 224,
and the data acquisition subunit is used for acquiring the actual start-up report forms and the actual production report forms of all the projects.
And then, the data fusion unit performs matching fusion on the actual start report and the actual production report according to the item code of each reference item to generate a first data list.
And the data processing subunit eliminates the invalid data of the first data list according to a preset data processing rule. And the calculating subunit calculates the construction period of each reference project according to the actual start date and the actual production date of each reference project in the first data list.
Optionally, in another embodiment of the disclosure, the device probability density curve constructing unit includes: the coordinate system establishes a subunit and a linear fitting unit.
And the coordinate system establishing subunit is used for determining a plurality of coordinate points by taking the construction period as an abscissa and the item number of the reference items as an ordinate.
And the linear fitting unit is used for fitting the plurality of coordinate points by utilizing a kernel density function to construct a probability density curve of the construction period.
Finally, it should also be noted that, herein, relational terms such as first and second, and the like may be used solely to distinguish one entity or action from another entity or action without necessarily requiring or implying any actual such relationship or order between such entities or actions. Also, the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus. Without further limitation, an element defined by the phrase "comprising an … …" does not exclude the presence of other identical elements in a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises the element.
The embodiments in the present description are described in a progressive manner, each embodiment focuses on differences from other embodiments, and the same and similar parts among the embodiments are referred to each other.
The previous description of the disclosed embodiments is provided to enable any person skilled in the art to make or use the present application. Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to those skilled in the art, and the generic principles defined herein may be applied to other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the application. Thus, the present application is not intended to be limited to the embodiments shown herein but is to be accorded the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.
Claims (10)
1. An on-line monitoring method for project construction period is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring the voltage grade and the project type of a project to be monitored;
screening a plurality of reference items which are the same as the voltage grade and the project type of the project to be monitored from a project database, and determining the construction period of each reference item;
constructing a probability density curve of the construction period based on the construction period of each reference project and the number of the reference projects;
determining a reasonable construction period of the project to be monitored according to the construction period corresponding to the two points with the maximum probability change rate speed increase on the probability density curve;
and monitoring the actual construction period of the project to be monitored by utilizing the reasonable construction period of the project to be monitored.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein determining a construction period for each benchmark item comprises:
acquiring actual start-up reports and actual production reports of all projects;
matching and fusing the actual start report and the actual production report according to the project code of each reference project to generate a first data list;
according to a preset data processing rule, eliminating invalid data of the first data list;
and calculating the construction period of each reference project according to the actual start date and the actual production date of each reference project in the first data list.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein constructing a probability density curve for a construction period based on the construction period and the number of the benchmark projects for each of the benchmark projects comprises:
determining a plurality of coordinate points by taking the construction period as an abscissa and the number of items of the reference item as an ordinate;
and fitting the plurality of coordinate points by using a kernel density function to construct a probability density curve of the construction period.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein the kernel density function is:
wherein,is a gaussian kernel function and h is the optimal window width.
5. The method according to claim 1, wherein the determining a reasonable construction period of the project to be monitored according to the construction period corresponding to the two points with the highest probability change rate speed increase on the probability density curve comprises:
determining a probability density function expression of the probability density curve by using a Gaussian function;
performing third-order derivation on the probability density function expression, and solving a first point and a second point of which the third-order derivative of the probability density expression is zero, wherein the construction period corresponding to the first point is a first construction period, and the construction period corresponding to the second point is a second construction period which is greater than the first construction period;
and taking the construction period range which is more than or equal to the first construction period and less than or equal to the second construction period as a reasonable construction period of the project to be monitored.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein monitoring the actual construction period of the item to be monitored with the reasonable construction period of the item to be monitored when the item to be monitored is on-stream during the monitoring period comprises:
if the actual construction period of the project to be monitored is longer than the second construction period, determining that the project to be monitored is a different-action project with an overlong construction period;
and if the actual construction period of the project to be monitored is shorter than the first construction period, determining that the project to be monitored is a different-movement project with too short construction period.
7. The method of claim 5, wherein monitoring the actual construction period of the item to be monitored with the reasonable construction period of the item to be monitored when the item to be monitored is not put into production within the monitoring period comprises:
and if the sum of the actual construction period of the project to be monitored and the preset time period is greater than the second construction period, determining that the project to be monitored is an early warning project with an overlong construction period.
8. The utility model provides a project time limit for a project on-line monitoring device which characterized in that includes:
the information acquisition unit is used for acquiring the voltage grade and the project type of the project to be monitored;
the screening unit is used for screening a plurality of reference items which are the same as the voltage grade and the project type of the project to be monitored from a project database and determining the construction period of each reference item;
the probability density curve building unit is used for building a probability density curve of the construction period based on the construction period of each reference project and the number of the reference projects;
the reasonable construction period determining unit is used for determining the reasonable construction period of the project to be monitored according to the construction period corresponding to the two points with the maximum probability change rate on the probability density curve;
and the monitoring unit is used for monitoring the actual construction period of the project to be monitored by utilizing the reasonable construction period of the project to be monitored.
9. The apparatus of claim 8, wherein the screening unit comprises: screening a reference project determining subunit of a plurality of reference projects which are the same as the voltage grade and the project type of the project to be monitored from a project database and a construction period determining subunit for determining the construction period of each reference project;
wherein, the construction period determination subunit comprises:
the data acquisition subunit is used for acquiring actual start-up reports and actual production reports of all projects;
the data fusion unit is used for matching and fusing the actual start report and the actual production report according to the project code of each reference project to generate a first data list;
the data processing subunit is used for eliminating the invalid data of the first data list according to a preset data processing rule;
and the calculating subunit is used for calculating the construction period of each reference project according to the actual start date and the actual production date of each reference project in the first data list.
10. The apparatus of claim 8, wherein the probability density curve constructing unit comprises:
a coordinate system establishing subunit, configured to determine a plurality of coordinate points by using the construction period as an abscissa and the number of items of the reference item as an ordinate;
and the linear fitting unit is used for fitting the plurality of coordinate points by utilizing a kernel density function to construct a probability density curve of the construction period.
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| CN201510536669.7A CN105184471A (en) | 2015-08-27 | 2015-08-27 | Method and device for online monitoring of project construction period |
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| CN201510536669.7A CN105184471A (en) | 2015-08-27 | 2015-08-27 | Method and device for online monitoring of project construction period |
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN107313769A (en) * | 2017-06-30 | 2017-11-03 | 合肥贺财工程项目管理有限公司 | A kind of architectural engineering geological mapping monitoring system |
| CN110363383A (en) * | 2019-06-03 | 2019-10-22 | 华东电力试验研究院有限公司 | A kind of distributed power generation monitoring technology based under digital development |
| CN110969399A (en) * | 2018-09-28 | 2020-04-07 | 北京国双科技有限公司 | Method and device for judging contract settlement progress lag |
-
2015
- 2015-08-27 CN CN201510536669.7A patent/CN105184471A/en active Pending
Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN107313769A (en) * | 2017-06-30 | 2017-11-03 | 合肥贺财工程项目管理有限公司 | A kind of architectural engineering geological mapping monitoring system |
| CN110969399A (en) * | 2018-09-28 | 2020-04-07 | 北京国双科技有限公司 | Method and device for judging contract settlement progress lag |
| CN110363383A (en) * | 2019-06-03 | 2019-10-22 | 华东电力试验研究院有限公司 | A kind of distributed power generation monitoring technology based under digital development |
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