CN105070001A - Forestry fire dynamic-prediction method based on patrolling and protection terminals - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a forestry fire dynamic-prediction method based on patrolling and protection terminals. Forest rangers hold meteorological collection equipment by hands to perform data timing collection, collected data are transmitted to APPs of intelligent mobile phones through Bluetooth to parse the data, and the forest rangers input a phonological phenomenon discrimination coefficient according to a standard; terminal systems send the terminal collected data to a fire danger class prediction system through the internet, boundaries of area management are input in advance on the fire danger class system according to forest rangers' responsibility patrolling areas, terrain-based meteorological element interpolation is performed according to adjacent forest rangers' fire danger meteorological information, a fire danger is predicted according to the designated responsibility areas, a map is marked and drawn, and a fire danger class is issued; and the forest workers are positioned through a GPS, and the fire danger classes of areas where the forest workers are located are issued to the forest ranger terminals. The method enables a fire prevention office to know the meteorological fire danger class of each responsibility area of a managed forestry area well, and a precaution in advance aiming at a fire emergency condition of a high fire danger area can be made.

Description

A kind of risk of forest fire dynamic prediction method based on patrolling terminal

Technical field

The present invention relates to forest fire protection technical field, specifically a kind of risk of forest fire dynamic prediction method based on patrolling terminal.

Background technology

The generation of forest fire, development and meteorological condition are closely related, risk of forest fire is the possibility that forest fire occurs and the one tolerance spreading easy degree, build the effect that forest fire danger class index must take into full account meteorological factor, the work of To Carry Out Forest fire danger prediction be unable to do without real-time monitored meteorological element and forecast meteorological element.It is find the condition of a fire and prediction fire that personnel's major responsibility is patrolled in forest zone, conventionally by forest ranger's micro-judgment, or differentiates the fire size class in forest zone by meteorological small station entirety.

The division of weather grade of forest divides according to LYT1172-95 " national weather grade of forest " industry standard (Ministry of Forestry issues on June nineteen ninety-five 22).This standard considers 5 fire meteorological factors altogether, that is: 1. in forest fire prevention period every day most high air temperature; 2. in forest fire prevention period every day minimum relative humidity; 3. early stage every day or the quantity of precipitation on the same day and subsequent Continuous Non-precipitation number of days in forest fire prevention period; 4. the maximum wind power grade of every day in forest fire prevention period; 5. in forest fire prevention period, index is corrected in the impact of biology and abiotic phenological season; Compare with 1.+2.+3.+4.-numerical value of 5. drawing and weather grade of forest standard value and draw weather grade of forest; Wherein one-level is safe from danger; Secondary low degree of hazard; Three grades of poor risks; Level Four highly dangerous; Pyatyi is in extreme danger.

According to national standard and computing method, prediction of forest fire disaster main at present comprises two kinds, a kind of is the meteorological factor acquisition system having artificial fixed station and automatic weather station based on National Meteorological Bureau, by front-end collection-GPRS Signal transmissions-background process, realize the fire weather forecast of large regions; The second calculates based on the independent acquisition of handheld terminal collecting device and automatic fire, can obtain the fire size class information of terminal position.

There is following shortcoming in current existing prediction of forest fire disaster technology:

1, based on the fire danger prediction of existing meteorological observation and automatic weather station, because the distribution of fixing weather station mountain area is little, mountain area circumstance complication, meteorological factor changes with the position residing for landform, height above sea level, forest, there is no abundant representative weather station monitoring station, and microclimate and research station data vary widely, this prediction can not reflect the fire size class of zone of responsibility, forest ranger place;

2, based on the weather monitoring of handheld terminal, there is many communication blind districts in major forest areas, cause signal to transmit;

3, " 5. in forest fire prevention period, index is corrected in the impact of biology and abiotic phenological season ", equipment cannot judge.

Summary of the invention

The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of risk of forest fire dynamic prediction method based on patrolling terminal, to solve the problem proposed in above-mentioned background technology.

For achieving the above object, the invention provides following technical scheme:

Based on the risk of forest fire dynamic prediction method patrolling terminal, comprise the following steps:

(1) the hand-held meteorological collecting device of forest ranger carries out timing acquiring data, and by the data of collection by the APP resolution data of Bluetooth transmission to smart mobile phone, forest ranger is according to standard typing phenological phenomenon discriminant coefficient simultaneously;

(2) terminal system data are on the one hand with the fire size class of image data terminal computational prediction forest ranger current location, to predict current fire situation in advance;

(3) terminal system sends to fire size class prognoses system data acquisition of terminal by internet on the other hand, the mobile phone of forester and fire size class prognoses system carry out binding to realize uniquely identified two-way communication, fire size class system makes an inspection tour according to the responsibility of forest ranger the boundary that region shifts to an earlier date typing district management, according to the fire weather information of adjacent forest ranger, carry out the meteorological element interpolation based on landform, predict fire according to the zone of responsibility delimited and mark and draw drawing, issuing fire size class;

(4) locate forest zone staff by GPS, issue current region fire size class; Send area of responsibility and tour district, place fire size class to forest ranger's terminal simultaneously.

As the further scheme of the present invention: the data of described collection comprise the temperature of phenology, humidity, rainfall amount, wind speed, phenology parameter coefficient and GPS locating information.

Compared with prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects as follows:

1, because fire is substantially all relevant with human factor, the route that forest ranger advances is substantially all the current path of donkey friend, villager, gathering weather data information to predict the fire size class of mountain region microenvironment in this forest ranger zone of responsibility by forest ranger, is the truest and reliable;

2, forest ranger and zone of responsibility one_to_one corresponding, the fire size class prediction of generation, can mark and draw different fire size class color on electronic chart; Solving prevents fires from doing has at fingertips to the weather fire risk grade of Mei Kuai zone of responsibility, administrative forest zone, for the fire emergency situations of high fire hazardous area, can take precautions against in advance;

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is process flow diagram of the present invention.

Embodiment

Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawing in the embodiment of the present invention, be clearly and completely described the technical scheme in the embodiment of the present invention, obviously, described embodiment is only the present invention's part embodiment, instead of whole embodiments.Based on the embodiment in the present invention, those of ordinary skill in the art, not making the every other embodiment obtained under creative work prerequisite, belong to the scope of protection of the invention.

Refer to Fig. 1, in the embodiment of the present invention, a kind of risk of forest fire dynamic prediction method based on patrolling terminal, comprises the following steps:

(1) the hand-held meteorological collecting device of forest ranger carries out timing acquiring data, the data gathered comprise the temperature of phenology, humidity, rainfall amount, wind speed, phenology parameter coefficient and GPS locating information, by the data of collection by the APP resolution data of Bluetooth transmission to smart mobile phone, forest ranger is according to standard typing phenological phenomenon discriminant coefficient simultaneously;

Data acquisition was carried out gathering and transmitting according to the time of presetting, and was usually set as collection one secondary data per hour;

(2) time data that the data of meteorological collecting device collection, intelligent terminal provide together sends to fire size class prognoses system, terminal system data on the one hand with the fire size class of image data terminal computational prediction forest ranger current location, to predict current fire situation in advance;

Fire size class prognoses system is carried out building fire size class prognoses system and zone of responsibility division and personnel bind;

According to the latitude and longitude information managing and protecting region of each forest ranger in prognoses system, root Ju actual conditions are marked and drawed and are become the zone of responsibility of this forest ranger; The information of the mobile phone of forest ranger binds phone and the MAC Address of this mobile phone on the backstage of prognoses system, download APP authentication registration simultaneously, can bind forest ranger and platform two-way communication, and unique identification;

(3) terminal system sends to fire size class prognoses system data acquisition of terminal by internet on the other hand, fire size class system makes an inspection tour according to the responsibility of forest ranger the boundary that region shifts to an earlier date typing district management, fire size class prognoses system carries out the space interpolation based on DEM according to all forest ranger's reporting informations, obtains the meteorological element space distribution information patrolling region;

According to the computing formula of " national weather grade of forest ", calculate the fire size class of all DEM unit, mark and draw with corresponding fire size class color and be superimposed upon on area of responsibility, form fire size class distribution plan;

(4) locate forest zone staff by GPS, issue current region fire size class; Send area of responsibility and tour district, place fire size class to forest ranger's terminal simultaneously.

Network type multiple spot meteorological element space distribution interpolation

The space interpolation of meteorological element comprises temperature, humidity, wind speed, adopts the method based on PRISM model to utilize moving window technique computes zonule elevation and meteorological element regression relation,

Y＝β ₁X+β ₀；β _1m≤β ₁≤β _1x

Wherein, Y is meteorological element (temperature, humidity), β ₁and β ₀the slope in linear regression and intercept respectively, β _1mand β _1xbe respectively the minimum and maximum slope allowed in regression relation;

(1) moving window algorithm

When carrying out interpolation, first choose a grid at DEM, with this grid for choosing meteorological site from surrounding in the center of circle.The size of window determines according to the distribution of meteorological site, considers the condition such as distance, place slope aspect of meteorological site and grid when meteorological site is chosen.After the number of selected website meets the requirements, in conjunction with the relation of the elevation, distance, slope aspect etc. of meteorological site and grid, calculate the weight of meteorological site, elevation and meteorological regression relation is set up, according to the meteorology value of regression relation computation grid with weather information in conjunction with weight by the elevation of selected website.By each grid in traversal DEM graticule mesh, just can in whole DEM graticule mesh, interpolation obtains the space distribution of meteorological element on study area.

(2) weight of each website

Because the impact of each website on the meteorologic factor of grid is different, each website gives certain weight according on the size of grid impact property, and the main factor considered comprises the impact on grid such as distance, elevation, landform slope aspect.The weight of website is the comprehensive of these weight factors, and computing formula is as follows:

W＝(W(d) ²+W(z) ²) ^1/2.W(f)

Wherein W (d), W (z), W (f) are the weight of distance, elevation, slope aspect respectively;

$W\left(d\right)=\left\{\begin{array}{c}1;d=0\\ \frac{1}{d^a};d>0\end{array}\right.$

D is the horizontal range of website and grid; A is distance weighting index, is usually set to 2, and now formula is similar with conventional inverse distance weighting;

$W\left(z\right)=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\&Delta;z}}_m^b};& \mathrm{\&Delta;z}\&le;{\mathrm{\&Delta;z}}_m\\ \frac{1}{{\mathrm{\&Delta;z}}^b};& {\mathrm{\&Delta;z}}_m<\mathrm{\&Delta;z}<{\mathrm{\&Delta;z}}_x\\ 0;& \mathrm{\&Delta;z}\&GreaterEqual;{\mathrm{\&Delta;z}}_x\end{array}\right.$

Wherein Δ z is the absolute value of the difference of elevation between grid and website, Δ z _m, Δ z _xbe respectively minimum, maximum elevation is poor, b is set to 1 usually, and above formula is just equal to the anti-distance weighting function of one dimension.

$W\left(f\right)=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}1;& \mathrm{\&Delta;f}\&le;1\mathrm{and\; B}=0\\ \frac{1}{{(\mathrm{\&Delta;f}+B)}^c};& \mathrm{\&Delta;f}>1\mathrm{or\; B}>0\end{array}\right.$

Wherein Δ f is website and the absolute value of impact point because of the different generation difference in direction, and B, c are slope aspect weighted index.

To those skilled in the art, obviously the invention is not restricted to the details of above-mentioned one exemplary embodiment, and when not deviating from spirit of the present invention or essential characteristic, the present invention can be realized in other specific forms.Therefore, no matter from which point, all should embodiment be regarded as exemplary, and be nonrestrictive, scope of the present invention is limited by claims instead of above-mentioned explanation, and all changes be therefore intended in the implication of the equivalency by dropping on claim and scope are included in the present invention.Any Reference numeral in claim should be considered as the claim involved by limiting.

Claims (2)

1., based on the risk of forest fire dynamic prediction method patrolling terminal, it is characterized in that, comprise the following steps:

(1) the hand-held meteorological collecting device of forest ranger carries out timing acquiring data, and by the data of collection by the APP resolution data of Bluetooth transmission to smart mobile phone, forest ranger is according to standard typing phenological phenomenon discriminant coefficient simultaneously;

(2) terminal system data are on the one hand with the fire size class of image data terminal computational prediction forest ranger current location, to predict current fire situation in advance;

(3) terminal system sends to fire size class prognoses system data acquisition of terminal by internet on the other hand, the mobile phone of forester and fire size class prognoses system carry out binding to realize uniquely identified two-way communication, fire size class system makes an inspection tour according to the responsibility of forest ranger the boundary that region shifts to an earlier date typing district management, according to the fire weather information of adjacent forest ranger, carry out the meteorological element interpolation based on landform, predict fire according to the zone of responsibility delimited and mark and draw drawing, issuing fire size class;

(4) locate forest zone staff by GPS, issue current region fire size class; Send area of responsibility and tour district, place fire size class to forest ranger's terminal simultaneously.

2. the risk of forest fire dynamic prediction method based on patrolling terminal according to claim 1, is characterized in that, the data of described collection comprise the temperature of phenology, humidity, rainfall amount, wind speed, phenology parameter coefficient and GPS locating information.