CN104991145A - Lightning early warning method based on atmospheric electric field instrument and thunder cloud movement - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention provides a lightning early warning method based on an atmospheric electric field instrument and thunder cloud movement. Radar return locating data are obtained by using a Doppler radar and a thundercloud movement vector is obtained through spatial cross-correlation calculation; with the atmospheric electric field instrument, pre-lightning and post-lightning electric field intensity matrix graphs of a region can be obtained and the electric field matrix graphs of the region are divided into a plurality of zone matrix graphs; the pre-lightning and post-lightning electric field matrix graphs of a zone are extracted and an electric field intensity change value can be obtained through comparison and analysis; based on the thundercloud movement vector, the zone which thundercloud will move to is a lightning early warning zone; the electric field intensity matrixes of the lightning early warning zone can be finally obtained through correlation analysis of the electric field intensity matrixes of the early warning zone and the electric field intensity change value. Thus, the lightning early warning function can be fulfilled.

Description

A kind of Lightning Warning method based on atmospheric electric field detector and thundercloud movement

Technical field

The present invention relates to atmospheric electric field monitoring and Doppler's thunder and lightning technical field, concrete finger one utilizes Doppler radar technique to carry out thundercloud tracking, and predicts the Lightning Warning method of electric field intensity by atmospheric electric field monitoring technology.

Background technology

Along with the development of electrical network, electric power transmission line, equipment, the ratio of shaft tower generation lightning strike accident constantly increases, the requirement that traditional monitoring and early warning pattern and ladder of management cannot meet " make rational planning for, scientific management, good service ".While obtaining development, also there is certain problem in process and the statistics of Lightning Disaster information, is in particular in the following aspects.As: lightning forecasting data publication is not in time; Lightning forecasting data geographic position is inaccurate; Lightning strike accident reports not in time after occurring.The existence of these problems causes very large difficulty to electric power netting safe running, maintenance, and O&M cost remains high; Also affect on the other hand further making rational planning for and building of transmission line of electricity and equipment.

Thunder and lightning causes Yunnan transmission line of electricity tripping operation principal element, as the body supports person of " transferring electricity from the west to the east ", " cloud electricity is sent outside ", the safe and stable operation of Yunnan Power System is sent target to this province clean energy resource and is had positive impetus, and this also has higher requirement to Yunnan Power System lightning monitoring and protective capacities.Compared with traditional Lightning Prevention Technique, Lightning Warning realizes electric network thunderstorm damage initiative defence necessary technology, can realize before thunderstorm arrives, scheduling, emergency preplan is formulated in advance according to early warning information, the duty of reasonable disposition transmission line of electricity, transformer station and generating plant, ensures power grid security and reduces because of the economic loss brought to user that has a power failure.

The object of the invention is, movement for thundercloud realizes the early warning to thunder and lightning, electric field intensity data are obtained by existing atmospheric electric field monitoring technology, research and analyse the transformation matrices that front and back electric field intensity occurs thunder and lightning, analyze radar Doppler Monitoring Data again, determine the mobile vector of thundercloud and infer and Lightning Warning region, just can draw Lightning Warning matrix in conjunction with the electric field intensity data of atmospheric electric field monitoring and electric field intensity transformation matrices.

Technical solution step of the present invention is as follows:

Step 1, obtained the echo reflection data of radar Doppler by meteorological networks, according to space crossed correlation computations, computing formula is as follows:

$R=\frac{{\Σ}_k\[Z_1\left(k\right)*Z_2\left(k\right)\]-\frac{1}{N}{\Σ}_k{Z}_1\left(k\right){\Σ}_k{Z}_2\left(k\right)}{\[({\Σ}_k{Z}_1^2\left(k\right)-N\stackrel{\‾}{Z_1^2})*({\Σ}_k{Z}_2^2\left(k\right)-N\stackrel{\‾}{Z_2^2})\]}$

The related coefficient calculated compares one by one, gets maximum correlation coefficient, as the position of this region at subsequent time, this moment regional center point is connected with subsequent time regional center point, just can draws the mobile vector of lighting location matrix

Step 2, the time before being occurred by thunder and lightning is decided to be t ₀, time during generation is decided to be t ₁, the thunder and lightning time of origin of early warning is t ₂; T is obtained by atmospheric electric field detector monitoring system ₀the electric field intensity data in moment, are made as electric field intensity matrix A; And obtain at t ₁the electric field intensity data in moment, make electric field intensity matrix B;

Step 3, by the portion intercepts of the region of Lightning Warning in matrix A and matrix B out, make thunder and lightning submatrix A1 and thunder and lightning submatrix B1 respectively, by analyzing the electric field intensity value of two thunder and lightning matrixes, obtain the change degree of the electric field intensity before and after lighting location data genaration, carry out correlation analysis with each point in matrix, obtain the matrix F of change degree.Change degree computing formula is as follows:

$F=\frac{B1}{A1}$

Step 4, by conjunction with lighting location matrix and the mobile vector that calculates infer next prewarning area, and in matrix B, obtain the electric field intensity matrix diagram B2 of prewarning area, by electric field intensity transformation matrices F, obtain t ₂the Lightning Warning regional early warning matrix diagram B2` in moment; Lightning Warning Matrix Computation Formulas is as follows:

$B2=B*\stackrel{\→}{V}$

B2`＝B2*F。

Formula letter illustrates:

F: change degree matrix

B1:t ₁the submatrix of the electric field intensity matrix in moment

A1:t ₀the submatrix of the electric field intensity matrix in moment

A:t ₀the electric field intensity data in moment

B:t ₁the electric field intensity data in moment

R: space crossed related coefficient;

K: the mobile number of times of thunder and lightning field

Z ₁: the field, radar return location in t1 moment

Z ₂: the field, radar return location in t2 moment

N: the radar return field areas number marked off

the mobile vector of lighting location matrix

B2`:t ₂the Lightning Warning regional early warning matrix diagram in moment

Advantage of the present invention is:

1. carry out data monitoring and analyze obtaining the mobile vector of thundercloud by radar Doppler, can regulate according to the demand of oneself prediction that thundercloud carries out like this, and do not need weather bureau to the Lightning Warning data of fixed position.

2. obtain electric field intensity by atmospheric electric field detector, finally carrying out the matrix that early warning draws is that electric field intensity matrix is more applicable for network system, and the probability matrix that the thunder and lightning being different from weather bureau and providing produces.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is the overview flow chart of the inventive method.

Embodiment

The present invention is the Lightning Warning method based on atmospheric electric field detector and thundercloud movement.It is characterized in that, by using Doppler's thunder and lightning to obtain radar return data, being drawn the displacement vector of thunder and lightning cloud by space crossed correlation computations; And the region of Lightning Warning is determined according to displacement vector; Collect by atmospheric electric field detector the electric field intensity value that front and back occur thunder and lightning, calculate the changing value that front and back electric field intensity occurs thunder and lightning; Electric field intensity in conjunction with Lightning Warning region can calculate the electric field intensity value during thunder and lightning generation in Lightning Warning region; Thus realize a kind of electric field intensity early warning of thunder and lightning.Process flow diagram as shown in Figure 1.

1) be first collect the echo data being arranged on the radar Doppler of thunder and lightning generation area, adopt crosscorrelation extrapolation algorithm to calculate the displacement vector of thunder and lightning cloud.Crosscorrelation extrapolation algorithm mainly utilizes the method asking optimization space correlation, the best-fit relation of time radar return when setting up different, thus reach and follow the trail of radar return moving characteristic in the past in certain area, then to be extrapolated the position and shape of determining echo future by these features; The core of cross correlation algorithm is exactly the optimal spatial related coefficient by calculating consecutive hours time radar return zones of different, determines echo mobile vector feature in the past.

2) first by the Radar Echo Data interpolation of polar format and be transformed into rule three rectangular coordinate systems in; Secondly, get one deck radar return field that can represent convection current horizontal properties, this two-dimentional echo field is divided into several equal-sized squares " region " by 1KMx1KM, these " regions " all comprise identical data and count; Then, each " region " of the first moment t1 is done space crossed correlation computations with all " region " of subsequent time t2 (t2=t1+ Δ t) respectively, and its related coefficient is designated as R, and computing formula is

$R=\frac{{\Σ}_k\[Z_1\left(k\right)*Z_2\left(k\right)\]-\frac{1}{N}{\Σ}_k{Z}_1\left(k\right){\Σ}_k{Z}_2\left(k\right)}{\[({\Σ}_k{Z}_1^2\left(k\right)-N\stackrel{\‾}{Z_1^2})*({\Σ}_k{Z}_2^2\left(k\right)-N\stackrel{\‾}{Z_2^2})\]}$

The related coefficient calculated compares one by one, gets maximum correlation coefficient, as the position of this region at subsequent time, this moment regional center point is connected with subsequent time regional center point, just obtains the mobile vector of this area echo

3) by being arranged on the atmospheric electric field instrument apparatus in the region that thunder and lightning occurs, thunder and lightning can be obtained and front and back occur, the electric field intensity value in this region.Time before being occurred by thunder and lightning is decided to be t ₀, time during generation is decided to be t ₁, the thunder and lightning time of origin of early warning is t ₂; T is obtained by atmospheric electric field detector monitoring system ₀the electric field intensity data in moment, are made as electric field intensity matrix A; And obtain at t ₁the electric field intensity data in moment, make electric field intensity matrix B;

4) matrix diagram is divided into some pieces of regions, therefrom intercept out the matrix of thunder and lightning generation area part, produce submatrix A1 and B1, by analyzing the electric field intensity value of two thunder and lightning matrixes, obtain the change degree of the electric field intensity before and after lighting location data genaration, carry out correlation analysis with each point in matrix, obtain the matrix F of change degree; Change degree computing formula is as follows:

$F=\frac{B1}{A1}$

5) the matrix diagram B after occurring according to thunder and lightning and generation area B1, in conjunction with the mobile vector calculated the region thunder and lightning cloud and be about to move to can be inferred, and the matrix B 2 finding this region corresponding in matrix B, calculated by electric field intensity transformation matrices F.Lightning Warning Matrix Computation Formulas is as follows:

$B2=B*\stackrel{\→}{V}$

B2`＝B2*F

By this computing formula, just can obtain the Lightning Warning regional early warning matrix diagram B2` in t2 moment, this early warning matrix diagram is current value early warning matrix diagram.

Formula letter illustrates:

F: change degree matrix

B1:t ₁the submatrix of the electric field intensity matrix in moment

A1:t ₀the submatrix of the electric field intensity matrix in moment

A:t ₀the electric field intensity data in moment

B:t ₁the electric field intensity data in moment

R: space crossed related coefficient;

K: the mobile number of times of thunder and lightning field

Z ₁: the field, radar return location in t1 moment

Z ₂: the field, radar return location in t2 moment

N: the radar return field areas number marked off

the mobile vector of lighting location matrix

B2`:t ₂the Lightning Warning regional early warning matrix diagram in moment

Specific embodiment:

Extract several groups of Doppler Radar Datas to analyze:

Doppler data table

List letter illustrates:

PRF: electric field influence value

R _max: the distance of thunder and lightning cloud and estimation range

V _max: the translational speed of wind

By space crossed correlation computations, calculate R value, R is respectively 0.11232,0.3123,0.2541,0.6678,0.3532,0.7985,0.4589, gets R maximum 0.7985, calculates thundercloud moving direction

Extract atmospheric electric field detector data analysis afterwards, draw out electric field matrix diagram A1, B1:

$\left[\begin{array}{cccccc}40.6& 0& 28.2& 0& 0& 32.7\\ 0& 24.3& 0& 0& 31.7& 0\\ 38.9& 0& 18.5& 22.4& 0& 0\\ 0& 0& 0& 0& 0& 35.7\\ 0& 34.9& 0& 0& 0& 34.3\\ 11& 22.2& 0& 17.4& 0& 0\end{array}\right]$

Field intensity matrix A 1 before thunder and lightning occurs

$\left[\begin{array}{cccccc}44.6& 33.2& 68.9& 0& 0& 77.7\\ 0& 24.3& 43.5& 0& 32.7& 0\\ 58.9& 0& 37.5& 26.4& 0& 0\\ 55.9& 0& 88.1& 34.7& 0& 35.7\\ 0& 74.6& 0& 149.9& 0& 44.3\\ 12.5& 44.2& 0& 27.1& 0& 98.2\end{array}\right]$

Field intensity matrix B 1 when thunder and lightning occurs

Change degree matrix F can be calculated according to formula:

$\left[\begin{array}{cccccc}1.1& \left(33.2\right)& 2.4& 0& 0& 2.3\\ 0& 1& \left(43.5\right)& 0& 1& 0\\ 1.5& 0& 2& 1.1& 0& 0\\ \left(55.9\right)& 0& \left(88.1\right)& \left(34.7\right)& 0& 1\\ 0& 2.1& 0& \left(149.9\right)& 0& 1.2\\ 1.1& 1.9& 0& 1.5& 0& \left(98.2\right)\end{array}\right]$

Change degree matrix F

Wherein parenthesis part is 0 for value before change, and changing rear value is not 0, and the value in early warning matrix part bracket replaces the data of correspondence position.Change before and after be all 0 constant time, the value in early warning matrix is not made an amendment.

Determine the region of thunder and lightning cloud movement, obtain the field intensity matrix B 2 in this region:

$\left[\begin{array}{cccccc}22& 35& 22& 0& 0& 12\\ 0& 32& 0& 0& 10& 0\\ 13& 24& 0& 0& 0& 21\\ 0& 0& 0& 0& 0& 0\\ 17& 0& 0& 0& 14& 38\\ 0& 0& 12& 0& 0& 35\end{array}\right]$

Lightning Warning region field intensity matrix B 2

Field intensity matrix B 2` when can show that thunder and lightning occurs is analyzed by change degree matrix F and B2:

$\left[\begin{array}{cccccc}24.2& 33.5& 52.8& 0& 0& 27.6\\ 0& 32& 43.5& 0& 10& 0\\ 19.5& 24& 0& 0& 0& 21\\ 55.9& 0& 88.1& 34.7& 0& 0\\ 17& 0& 0& 149.9& 14& 45.6\\ 0& 0& 12& 0& 0& 98.2\end{array}\right]$

Field intensity matrix B 2` when the thunder and lightning of early warning occurs.

Claims (1)

1., based on a Lightning Warning method for atmospheric electric field detector and thundercloud movement, it is characterized in that, comprise the following steps:

Step 1: the echo reflection data being obtained radar Doppler by meteorological networks, according to space crossed correlation computations, computing formula is as follows:

$R=\frac{{\mathrm{\Σ}}_k\[Z_1\left(k\right)*Z_2-\left(k\right)\]-\frac{1}{N}{\mathrm{\Σ}}_k{Z}_1\left(k\right){\mathrm{\Σ}}_k{Z}_2\left(k\right)}{\[\left({\mathrm{\Σ}}_k{Z}_1^2\right(k)-N\stackrel{\‾}{Z_1^2})*\left({\mathrm{\Σ}}_k{Z}_2^2\right(k)-N\stackrel{\‾}{Z_2^2})\]}$

The wherein space crossed related coefficient of R, Z ₁k () is t ₁the field, radar return location in moment, Z ₂k field, radar return location that () is the t2 moment, k is the mobile number of times of thunder and lightning field, and N is the radar return field areas number marked off; For the related coefficient calculated compares one by one, get maximum correlation coefficient, as the position of this region at subsequent time, this moment regional center point is connected with next time domain central point, just can draws the mobile vector of lighting location matrix

Step 2: the time before being occurred by thunder and lightning is decided to be t ₀, time during generation is decided to be t ₁, the thunder and lightning time of origin of early warning is t ₂.T is obtained by atmospheric electric field detector monitoring system ₀the electric field intensity data in moment, are made as electric field intensity matrix A; And obtain at t ₁the electric field intensity data in moment, make electric field intensity matrix B;

Step 3: by the portion intercepts of the region of Lightning Warning in matrix A and matrix B out, make thunder and lightning submatrix A1 and thunder and lightning submatrix B1 respectively, by analyzing the electric field intensity value of two thunder and lightning matrixes, obtain the change degree of the electric field intensity before and after lighting location data genaration, carry out correlation analysis with each point in matrix, obtain the matrix F of change degree; Change degree computing formula is as follows:

$F=\frac{B1}{A1}$

Step 4: by conjunction with lighting location matrix and the mobile vector that calculates infer next prewarning area, and in matrix B, obtain the electric field intensity matrix diagram B2 of prewarning area, by electric field intensity transformation matrices F, obtain t ₂the Lightning Warning regional early warning matrix diagram B2` in moment; Lightning Warning Matrix Computation Formulas is as follows:

$B2=B*\stackrel{\→}{V}$

B2`＝B2*F。