CN104915541B - The remaining reliability service life-span online Prediction method of relay protection products - Google Patents
The remaining reliability service life-span online Prediction method of relay protection products Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention discloses a kind of remaining reliability service life-span online Prediction method of relay protection products, comprises the following steps：One complete relay protection products is divided into minimal hardware functional unit by S1, and according to the different reliability effect factor of influence setting of the minimal hardware functional unit for the reliability service of relay protection products；S2, the reliability to the minimal hardware functional unit carries out online Prediction;S3, the reliability effect factor that the reliability of all minimal hardware functional units is set according to step S1 is weighted synthesis, obtains the reliability of relay protection products；S4; reliability and the historical variations data of the reliability according to relay product; the reliability service life-span of the relay protection products is estimated; the present invention dynamically estimates the remaining reliability service life-span of the product according to the history run situation of the relay protection products in real time, realizes different processing strategies.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to secondary equipment in power system evaluation areas, and in particular to the remaining reliability service of relay protection products
Life-span online Prediction method.
Background technology
Relay protection products are the important secondary devices of power system, it is necessary to reliably, rapidly carry out breakdown judge, and have
Selective cuts off fault element from power system.With the fast development of large scale integrated circuit technology, it is digital after
Electric protection technology is risen and developed rapidly therewith, and performance, function, the integrated level of relay protection products have obtained great lifting.
And the hardware complexity that the lifting of function necessarily brings relay protection products is greatly improved, the reliable of overall operation result in
Property reduction.
Hardware can be run and function is normally that relay protection products can be with the basis of normal work.Relay protection products
Hardware life cycle management and reliability service life-span, which calculate, to be one and is related to less field, at present only can be with artificial experience
Mode one relay protection products reliability service life-span is estimated.Because the scene that relay protection products are applied is a variety of more
Sample, the operating mode of actual motion is extremely complex, and the operating condition difference of the relay protection products under different scenes is very big, therefore should
The degree of accuracy of estimation is poor, does not have too big actual reference.Therefore, current present situation is more when hardware is weighed
Serious mistake causes after serious consequence, just can passively trigger user and the device that can not normally run is changed, cause
More negative effect.
In the prior art, CN201410666384, a kind of predictor method in server product life-span, it implements process
For：Determine each part in server product, the title of board, quantity；Obtain each part, the redundant fashion of board, redundant digit
The operation temperature that amount, manufacturer provide；Measurement obtains the temperature of current server internal work environment；Determine single part, board
Crash rate in systems；Determine the crash rate of the base part, board in systems；It is determined that the system of whole server product is lost
Efficiency, i.e., the crash rate of all kinds of component plate cards in systems is multiplied by such quantity of component plate card in systems, is then added institute
Obtained sum；Server product life-span MTBF, i.e. server product life-span MTBF=1/ system failure rates are calculated, can be quick
The MTBF values of product are assessed, accurate data is assessed, it is practical.What the invention was calculated only runs work with a certain of actual product
Condition is calculated as typical operating condition, and change of environment and environment of the actual motion of the product etc. is not included
The scope of consideration.So as to which, the life appraisal can not adapt to application site very wide product, such as relay protection products.
One relay protection products may be applied to extremely frigid zones, also may be applied to the torrid zone；Interior be may be applied to air-conditioned
Room, also may be applied under outdoor sun direct projection.And off-line calculation only can according to some or certain some typically should
MTBF calculating is carried out with scene, and then its working life is estimated, but actual application scenarios can not limit so that from
The life prediction of line is constantly present larger deviation.
CN201110275522, the invention discloses a kind of full life cycle management method for relay protection products,
It is characterized in that, comprise the steps of：Relay protection products production, processing, debugging, stock, transport, operation, maintenance process are entered
Row analysis and evaluation；Different weights are set according to the time point of each process and operation conditions；According to the type of relay protection products
Classified；The information of summary step, calculates station level, the expection setting value of system-level interior each relay protection products,
Set up relay protection products station level, system-level management database.Pay close attention to and analysis product was waited in production, processing, debugging, maintenance
Journey, lifecycle management is carried out to relay protection products hardware.Product operation conditions is estimated, it is ensured that product is reliably transported
OK.The invention more biases toward the management of product, the number of days in a series of its flow to relay protection products and each flow
Weight is weighted and contrasted by the weighting work number of days and with a preset value, so as to be notified after preset value is reached
User is changed.Therefore, the preset value in the patent is entirely an empirical value, has no any data theory basis, because
This its error between actual service life will be more uncontrollable.
Therefore, prior art the disadvantage is that, all reliability service life predictions are calculated with offline mode.And it is different
Relay protection products realization operation situation and differ, therefore its actual reliability service life-span is in fact completely not.Cause
This, the offline actual reliability service longevity estimated with relay protection products that this running situation actual with product disconnects completely
Larger difference is there are between life.Moreover, in current technology, estimating for the reliably working life-span is more by manually passing through
Test as reference, therefore different people has larger gap for estimating for the reliably working life-span, so that strong influence
The accuracy estimated.
The content of the invention
The present invention proposes a kind of remaining reliability service life-span online Prediction method of relay protection products, so as to
During relay protection products commencement of commercial operation, the product is dynamically estimated according to the history run situation of the relay protection products in real time
The remaining reliability service life-span, it is possible to which different processing plans are realized according to the demand in the remaining reliability service life-span and reliability
Slightly.
Technical solution of the present invention is as follows：
A kind of remaining reliability service life-span online Prediction method of relay protection products, comprises the following steps：
S1, carries out relay protection products hardware division:One complete relay protection products is divided into a series of event
The minimal hardware functional unit that barrier is independent, reliability services to relay protection products influences are separate, and according to it is described most
It is (i.e. minimum that small hardware function units obtain the different reliability effect factors for the influence of the reliability service of relay protection products
The overall reliability effect factor of the hardware function units for relay protection products)；
S2, the reliability to the minimal hardware functional unit carries out online Prediction；
S3, the reliability effect factor that the reliability of all minimal hardware functional units is obtained according to step S1 is carried out
Weighted comprehensive, obtains the reliability of relay protection products；
S4, according to the reliability and the historical variations data of the reliability of relay product, to the relay protection products
The reliability service life-span estimated.
Step S1 specifically includes following steps,
(101) hardware function units are divided according to relay protection products division principle：
The relay protection products division principle is：Hardware fault when being run between hardware function units is separate；
Each hardware function units there is influence on the reliability service of relay protection products hardware and the influence is independent mutually；
(102) importance of the influence according to each hardware function units to the hardware reliability service of relay protection products, point
Not She Zhi hardware function units to the reliability effect factors of overall relay protection products；
Assuming that a relay protection products mark off N altogether1Individual hardware function units, then the hardware function units be denoted asEach hardware function units are denoted as the reliability effect factor of relay protection products
(103) based on each hardware function units marked off by step (101), according to hardware function units division principle,
Determine whether the hardware function units can be further divided into many sub- hardware function units；
Hardware function units divide principle be：Hardware fault is separate when being run between each sub- hardware function units；
Influence of each sub- hardware function units to the reliability service of the hardware function units corresponding to it is separate；
As hardware function units there are sub- hardware function units, then hardware function units are further divided,
The hardware function units being divided are referred to as father's hardware function units of the sub- hardware function units；
Each sub- hardware function units to marking off divide according to the influence of the reliability service for his father's hardware function units
The sub- hardware function units are not set to the secondary reliability effect factors of father's hardware function units；
It is postulated that in order to obtain the sub- hardware function units of certain one-level has entered m division altogether, marked off altogether when dividing for the m times
NmIndividual sub- hardware function units, the sub- hardware function units marked off are designated asEach sub- hardware function units
The hardware overall reliability factor of influence for relay protection products for the sub- hardware cell for his father's hardware capability list
First secondary reliability effect factor is with his father's hardware function units for the hardware reliability factor of influence of relay protection products
Product；Assuming that sub- hardware function unitsThe relatively reliable influence on system operation factor for father's hardware function units isAnd its
Father's hardware function units are assumed to beFather's hardware function units are for the reliability effect factor of relay protection productsThen sub- hardware function unitsFor the overall reliability factor of influence of relay protection products
(104) repeat step (103) until all hardware function units can not be divided again, and by it is all can not
The hardware function units further divided are referred to as minimal hardware functional unit；
Assuming that having N number of minimal hardware functional unit, then the minimal hardware functional unit is denoted asEach minimal hardware functional unit is denoted as the overall reliability factor of influence of relay protection products
Step S2 specifically includes following steps,
(201) all elements for including the minimal hardware functional unit are enumerated：The element includes semi-conductor electricity
Sub- component, resistance, electric capacity, inductance；The each element of hardware reliability service according to to(for) the minimal hardware functional unit influences
Different allocation elements the reliability effect factor, it is assumed that have M element, each element is designated as En, (n=1 ... M), member
The reliability effect factor of element is designated as Wn, (n=1 ... M)；
(202) in obtaining step (201) all elements mean time between failures MTBFn；Mean is transported
Under row time unification to mutually same humiture, identical electronic radiation level, identical confidential interval；In minimal hardware functional unit
The mean time between failures of each element is denoted as
Mean time between failures uniformly specifically include following steps：
Assuming that the mean time between failures MTBF obtained beforenIt is to be obtained under temperature T, humidity RH by batch testing
The data arrived, then relative to radiation intensityTemperature TUnity, humidity RHUnityUnder, then obtain formula (1)：
In formula (1), k=8.617x 10-5eV/Kelvin are Boltzmann constant, and the unit of all temperature is Kai Er
Text, all humidity are relative humidity.For radiation intensity, determined by the height above sea level where the minimal hardware functional unit,For the mean time between failures after unification.
(203) sensor is set around minimal hardware functional unit, at a certain time interval to minimal hardware function
The working environment humiture of unit is measured；
Because a minimal hardware unit is usually concentrated in together, so that institute in the quite reasonable hypothesis minimal hardware unit
There are the temperature, humidity, radiation intensity all same of element.The all elements of the minimal hardware functional unit are obtained between the same time
Every interior work epidemic disaster；Assuming that the time interval is tstep, the temperature measured is Tmeasure, the humidity measured is
RHmeasure。
(204) assume that the temperature that the element En in minimal hardware functional unit is measured is Tmeasure, the humidity measured is
RHmeasure, time interval is tstep；Normalized radiation intensityTemperature TUnity, humidity RHUnityUnder working timeThe normalization formula is formula (2)：
Element En normalized run time is added up, so as to obtain element En total working duration, is designated asSo as to which now, element En reliability is
(205) step (204), is performed to all elements, so as to obtain all elements of the minimal hardware functional unit
Current reliability, is designated as Rn, (n=1 ... M), now reliability is weighted and, so as to obtain current minimal hardware work(
Can the operational reliability of unit be
Step S3 specifically includes following steps,
(301) step S2 all operations are performed to all minimal hardware functional units, all minimal hardwares are obtained
Functional unitReliability, the minimal hardware functional unitReliability be designated as
(302) according to the overall reliability factor of influence in the step S1 minimal hardware functional units calculatedObtain the reliability of overall relay protection products
(303) according to since operation to current time relay protection products overall reliability R with normalization transport
Row time tUnityChange, the overall reliability R is estimated；
Overall reliability R, which is estimated, specifically includes following steps：The relay protection products that selecting step S2 tests are obtained it is tired
Meter normalization operating time log, it is assumed that X accumulative normalization operating time logs are chosen altogether, during X accumulative normalization operations
Between be designated asIt is respectively R in each accumulative corresponding reliability of run time that normalizesx(x=1 ... X)；When
The reliability at preceding moment is Rc, acceptable least reliability is Rt, then the residual life of current time overall relay protection products
Estimate tleftObtained using formula (3)：
Acquisition formula (4) is changed to formula (3), relay protection products is calculated and continues to run with after special time, relay
Protect the horizontal R of product reliabilityt, formula (4) is：
T in formula (4)RunFor the time continued to run with.
Compared with prior art, the present invention includes following beneficial effect：
1st, the present invention realizes the online remaining reliability service life prediction of product, is supported based on data and calculation basis,
Reference without artificial experience completely, and it is perfectly correlated with the actual operating mode of product, therefore accurately, the present invention includes reliable
The hardware partition method of relay protection products, this method includes the division operation of progress hardware function units in itself, hardware work(
The division basis for estimation of energy unit, the definition of minimal hardware functional unit, the hardware reliability service influence of each hardware function units
The setting of the factor and computational methods.
2nd, any portion of reliability in time calculating includes the element inside the part in relay protection products
When division, the operation of the design of the hardware reliability service factor of influence of each element, the MTBF of each element normalization operation, each element
Between normalization operation.Also should be in protection domain by certain combination of aforesaid operations.
3rd, relay protection products weight reliability according to it and calculate that remaining life includes adding for relay protection products
Weigh the work of the progress counting statistics of Calculation of Reliability, acceptable least reliability setting, remaining life on different spans
Reliability calculation method after method, different run times.
4th, the different processing plans that data fork goes out are estimated etc. based on the reliability service time that relay protection products are calculated
Slightly i.e. in protection domain.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is a kind of remaining reliability service life-span online Prediction method flow schematic diagram of relay protection products of the invention；
Fig. 2 is the embodiment schematic diagram that minimal hardware functional unit of the present invention is divided.
Embodiment
The present invention is described in further detail with specific embodiment below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
As shown in figure 1, a kind of remaining reliability service life-span online Prediction method of relay protection products, including following step
Suddenly：
S1, carries out relay protection products hardware division:One complete relay protection products is divided into a series of event
The minimal hardware functional unit that barrier is independent, reliability services to relay protection products influences are separate, and according to it is described most
Small hardware function units obtain the different reliability effect factors for the influence of the reliability service of relay protection products；
S2, the reliability to the minimal hardware functional unit carries out online Prediction；
S3, the reliability effect factor that the reliability of all minimal hardware functional units is obtained according to step S1 is carried out
Weighted comprehensive, obtains the reliability of relay protection products；
S4, according to the reliability and the historical variations data of the reliability of relay product, to the relay protection products
The reliability service life-span estimated.
Step S1 specifically includes following steps,
(101) hardware function units are divided according to relay protection products division principle：
The relay protection products division principle is：Hardware fault when being run between hardware function units is separate；
Each hardware function units there is influence on the reliability service of relay protection products hardware and the influence is independent mutually；
(102) importance of the influence according to each hardware function units to the hardware reliability service of relay protection products, point
Not She Zhi hardware function units to the reliability effect factors of overall relay protection products；
Assuming that a relay protection products mark off N altogether1Individual hardware function units, then the hardware function units be denoted asEach hardware function units are denoted as the reliability effect factor of relay protection products
(103) based on each hardware function units marked off by step (101), according to hardware function units division principle,
Determine whether the hardware function units can be further divided into many sub- hardware function units；
Hardware function units divide principle be：Hardware fault is separate when being run between each sub- hardware function units；
Influence of each sub- hardware function units to the reliability service of the hardware function units corresponding to it is separate；
As hardware function units there are sub- hardware function units, then hardware function units are further divided,
The hardware function units being divided are referred to as father's hardware function units of the sub- hardware function units；
Each sub- hardware function units to marking off divide according to the influence of the reliability service for his father's hardware function units
The sub- hardware function units are not set to the secondary reliability effect factors of father's hardware function units；
It is postulated that in order to obtain the sub- hardware function units of certain one-level has entered m division altogether, marked off altogether when dividing for the m times
NmIndividual sub- hardware function units, the sub- hardware function units marked off are designated asEach sub- hardware function units
The hardware overall reliability factor of influence for relay protection products for the sub- hardware cell for his father's hardware capability list
First secondary reliability effect factor is with his father's hardware function units for the hardware reliability factor of influence of relay protection products
Product；Assuming that sub- hardware function unitsThe relatively reliable influence on system operation factor for father's hardware function units isAnd its
Father's hardware function units are assumed to beFather's hardware function units are for the reliability effect factor of relay protection productsThen sub- hardware function unitsFor the overall reliability factor of influence of relay protection products
(104) repeat step (103) until all hardware function units can not be divided again, and by it is all can not
The hardware function units further divided are referred to as minimal hardware functional unit；
Assuming that having N number of minimal hardware functional unit, then the minimal hardware functional unit is denoted as
Each minimal hardware functional unit is denoted as the overall reliability factor of influence of relay protection products
As shown in Fig. 2 the division result of a relay protection products, the relay protection products are first divided into four hardware
Functional unitThe reliability effect factor that each hardware function units correspond to relay protection products is distinguished
ForHardware function unitsFunction division, therefore the two hardware function units can not further be carried out
Also it is minimal hardware functional unit, is designated asIts respective reliability effect factor is respectively
Hardware function unitsIt is further divided into three sub- hardware function unitsThese three sub- hardware function units
Can not further it divide, therefore these three sub- hardware function units are also minimal hardware functional units, are designated as
These three minimal hardware functional units are relative to his father's hardware function unitsRelative reliability factor of influence be respectivelyThese three minimal hardware functional units of the reliability effect factor so as to to(for) protective relaying device is distinguished
ForHardware function unitsIt is further divided into
Two sub- hardware function unitsThe relative reliability factor of influence of the two sub- hardware function units is respectivelySub- hardware function units can not be divided further, therefore this sub- hardware function units is also minimal hardware
Functional unit, is designated asIts relative reliability factor of influence isSo as to its reliability for protective relaying device
Factor of influence isSub- hardware function units are further divided into two sub- hardware function unitsIts relative reliability factor of influence is respectivelyThe two sub- hardware function units can not further be drawn
Point, therefore the two sub- hardware function units are also minimal hardware functional units, are designated asIts relative reliability shadow
Ringing the factor is respectivelyThen it is respectively for the reliability effect factor of protective relaying deviceAccording to the division result, the hardware of the relay protection products can
By property completely by minimal hardware functional unitDetermine, each minimal hardware functional unit is produced for relay protection
The factor of influence of the reliability service of product is respectively
Step S2 specifically includes following steps,
(201) all elements for including the minimal hardware functional unit are enumerated：The element includes semi-conductor electricity
Sub- component, resistance, electric capacity, inductance；The each element of hardware reliability service according to to(for) the minimal hardware functional unit influences
Different allocation elements the reliability effect factor, it is assumed that have M element, each element is designated as En, (n=1 ... M), member
The reliability effect factor of element is designated as Wn, (n=1 ... M)；
(202) in obtaining step (201) mean time between failures (MTBF) of all elements value MTBFn.It is average
Non-failure operation time is obtained by the Chevron Research Company (CRC) of the element according to batch testing.Mean time between failures are unified to phase
Under same humiture, identical electronic radiation level, identical confidential interval；The average nothing of each element in minimal hardware functional unit
The fail operation time is denoted as
Mean time between failures unified approach is as follows：
Assuming that the mean time between failures MTBF of historical datanIt is to be obtained under temperature T, humidity RH by batch testing
The data arrived, then relative to radiation intensityTemperature TUnity, humidity RHUnityUnder, then obtain formula (1)：
In formula (1), k=8.617x 10-5eV/Kelvin are Boltzmann constant, and the unit of all temperature is Kai Er
Text, all humidity are relative humidity.For radiation intensity, determined by the height above sea level where the minimal hardware functional unit.
MTBFnRepresent according to a certain element obtained after batch experiment in a certain epidemic disaster, a certain electron radiation level, a certain
Mean time between failures under confidential interval, are not element failure-free operation in actual relay protection products
Historical data.
(203) sensor is set around minimal hardware functional unit, at a certain time interval to minimal hardware function
The working environment humiture of unit is measured；
Because a minimal hardware unit is usually concentrated in together, so that institute in the quite reasonable hypothesis minimal hardware unit
There are the temperature, humidity, radiation intensity all same of element.The all elements of the minimal hardware functional unit are obtained between the same time
Every interior work epidemic disaster；Assuming that the time interval is tstep, the temperature measured is Tmeasure, the humidity measured is
RHmeasure。
(204) the element E in minimal hardware functional unit is assumednThe temperature measured is Tmeasure, the humidity measured is
RHmeasure, time interval is tstep；Normalized radiation intensityTemperature TUnity, humidity RHUnityUnder working timeThe normalization formula is formula (2)：
By element EnNormalized run time added up, so as to obtain element EnTotal working duration, be designated asSo that now, element EnReliability be
(205) step (204), is performed to all elements, so as to obtain all elements of the minimal hardware functional unit
Current reliability, is designated as Rn, (n=1 ... M), now reliability is weighted and, so as to obtain current minimal hardware work(
Can the operational reliability of unit be
Step S3 specifically includes following steps,
(301) step S2 all operations are performed to all minimal hardware functional units, all minimal hardwares are obtained
Functional unitReliability, the minimal hardware functional unitReliability be designated as
(302) according to the overall reliability factor of influence in the step S1 minimal hardware functional units calculatedObtain the reliability of overall relay protection products
(303) according to since operation to current time relay protection products overall reliability R with normalization transport
Row time tUnityChange, the overall reliability R is estimated；
Overall reliability R, which is estimated, specifically includes following steps：The relay protection products that selecting step S2 tests are obtained it is tired
Meter normalization operating time log, it is assumed that X accumulative normalization operating time logs are chosen altogether, during X accumulative normalization operations
Between be designated asIt is respectively R in each accumulative corresponding reliability of run time that normalizesx(x=1 ... X)；When
The reliability at preceding moment is Rc, acceptable least reliability is Rt, then the residual life of current time overall relay protection products
Estimate tleftObtained using formula (3)：
Acquisition formula (4) is changed to formula (3), relay protection products is calculated and continues to run with after special time, relay
Protect the horizontal R of product reliabilityt, formula (4) is：
T in formula (4)RunFor the time continued to run with.
The present embodiment will respectively be handled according to different product reliability requirements, application side with different strategies.Than
, can be pre- by the remaining reliability service time at present on multiple different spans in real time such as the product of high reliability request
Result is estimated by being sent in data communication, and will run the reliability prediction after the different periods and send, for back-stage management
Program is further processed；For the product of moderate reliability requirement, the current remaining reliability service time sets less than certain
Request is sent on during definite value, judges whether to need to carry out replacement of products for backstage management procedure.Two kinds of strategies above are only for example,
Actually any strategy can be used according to application demand.
Those skilled in the art can to the present invention be modified or modification design but do not depart from the present invention think of
Think and scope.Therefore, if these modifications and variations of the present invention belong to the claims in the present invention and its equivalent technical scope
Within, then the present invention is also intended to comprising including these changes and modification.
Claims (4)
1. a kind of remaining reliability service life-span online Prediction method of relay protection products, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
S1, carries out relay protection products hardware division：One complete relay protection products is divided into a series of failure only
The separate minimal hardware functional unit of the influences of reliability services vertical, to relay protection products, and according to described minimum hard
Part functional unit obtains the different reliability effect factors for the influence of the reliability service of relay protection products；
S2, the reliability to the minimal hardware functional unit carries out online Prediction；
S3, the reliability effect factor that the reliability of all minimal hardware functional units is obtained according to step S1 is weighted
It is comprehensive, obtain the reliability of relay protection products；
S4, according to the reliability and the historical variations data of the reliability of relay product, to the reliable of relay protection products
Service life is estimated；
Step S2 specifically includes following steps,
(201) all elements for including the minimal hardware functional unit are enumerated：The element includes semiconductor electronic member
Device, resistance, electric capacity, inductance；The each element of hardware reliability service according to to(for) the minimal hardware functional unit influences not
With the reliability effect factor of allocation elements, it is assumed that have M element, each element is designated as En, the reliability effect of element
The factor is designated as Wn, wherein n=1 ... M；
(202) in obtaining step (201) all elements mean time between failures MTBFn, by mean time between failures
Under unification to mutually same humiture, identical electronic radiation level, identical confidential interval；Each element in minimal hardware functional unit
Mean time between failures be denoted asWherein n=1 ... M；
(203) sensor is set around minimal hardware functional unit, at a certain time interval to minimal hardware functional unit
Working environment humiture measure；
Obtain work epidemic disaster of all elements of the minimal hardware functional unit in same time interval；Assuming that when described
Between at intervals of tstep, the temperature measured is Tmeasure, the humidity measured is RHmeasure；
(204) assume that the temperature that the element En in minimal hardware functional unit is measured is Tmeasure, the humidity measured is RHmeasure,
Time interval is tstep；Normalized radiation intensityTemperature TUnity, humidity RHUnityUnder working time
The normalization formula is formula (2)：
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By element EnNormalized run time added up, so as to obtain element EnTotal working duration, be designated asSo that now, element EnReliability beK=8.617x10-5EV/Kelvin is glass
The graceful constant of Wurz；
(205) step (204), is performed to all elements, so that all elements for obtaining the minimal hardware functional unit are current
Reliability, be designated as Rn, wherein n=1 ... M, now reliability is weighted and, so as to obtain current minimal hardware function
The operational reliability of unit is
2. a kind of remaining reliability service life-span online Prediction method of relay protection products according to claim 1, it is special
Levy and be, step S1 specifically includes following steps,
(101) hardware function units are divided according to relay protection products division principle：
The relay protection products division principle is：Hardware fault when being run between hardware function units is separate；It is each hard
Part functional unit there is influence on the reliability service of relay protection products hardware and the influence is independent mutually；
(102) importance of the influence according to each hardware function units to the hardware reliability service of relay protection products, sets respectively
Put the reliability effect factor of the hardware function units to overall relay protection products；
Assuming that a relay protection products mark off N altogether1Individual hardware function units, then the hardware function units be denoted asIt is each hard
Part functional unit is denoted as the reliability effect factor of relay protection productsWherein n=1 ... N1；
(103) based on each hardware function units marked off by step (101), according to hardware function units division principle, it is determined that
Whether the hardware function units can be further divided into many sub- hardware function units；
Hardware function units divide principle be：Hardware fault is separate when being run between each sub- hardware function units；Each son
Influence of the hardware function units to the reliability service of the hardware function units corresponding to it is separate；
As hardware function units there are sub- hardware function units, then hardware function units are further divided, drawn
The hardware function units divided are referred to as father's hardware function units of the sub- hardware function units；
Each sub- hardware function units to marking off are set respectively according to the influence of the reliability service for his father's hardware function units
Put the secondary reliability effect factor of the sub- hardware function units to father's hardware function units；
It is postulated that in order to obtain the sub- hardware function units of certain one-level has entered m division altogether, N has been marked off altogether when dividing for the m timesmIt is individual
Sub- hardware function units, the sub- hardware function units marked off are designated asWherein p=1 ... Nm；
The hardware overall reliability factor of influence for relay protection products of each sub- hardware function units is the sub- hardware list
Member is for the secondary reliability effect factor of his father's hardware function units with his father's hardware function units for relay protection products
The product of hardware reliability factor of influence；Assuming that sub- hardware function unitsFor the relatively reliable operation of father's hardware function units
Factor of influence isAnd his father's hardware function units are assumed to beFather's hardware function units are for relay protection products
The reliability effect factor beThen sub- hardware function unitsFor the overall reliability shadow of relay protection products
Ring the factor
(104) repeat step (103) is until all hardware function units can not be divided again, and can not enter one by all
The hardware function units that step is divided are referred to as minimal hardware functional unit；
Assuming that having N number of minimal hardware functional unit, then the minimal hardware functional unit is denoted asEach minimal hardware
Functional unit is denoted as the overall reliability effect factor of relay protection productsWherein j=1 ... N.
3. a kind of remaining reliability service life-span online Prediction method of relay protection products according to claim 1, it is special
Levy and be,
Step (202) mean time between failures uniformly comprise the following steps：
Assuming that the mean time between failures MTBF of historical datanObtained under temperature T, humidity RH by batch testing
Data, then relative to radiation intensityTemperature TUnity, humidity RHUnityUnder, then obtain formula (1)：
<mrow>
<msubsup>
<mi>MTBF</mi>
<mi>n</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>U</mi>
<mi>n</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>t</mi>
<mi>y</mi>
</mrow>
</msubsup>
<mo>=</mo>
<msup>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mfrac>
<mrow>
<mi>R</mi>
<mi>H</mi>
</mrow>
<mrow>
<msup>
<mi>RH</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>U</mi>
<mi>n</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>t</mi>
<mi>y</mi>
</mrow>
</msup>
</mrow>
</mfrac>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
<mn>3</mn>
</msup>
<mo>&CenterDot;</mo>
<msup>
<mi>e</mi>
<mrow>
<mo>&lsqb;</mo>
<mfrac>
<msubsup>
<mi>E</mi>
<mi>a</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>U</mi>
<mi>n</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>t</mi>
<mi>y</mi>
</mrow>
</msubsup>
<mi>k</mi>
</mfrac>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mfrac>
<mn>1</mn>
<msup>
<mi>T</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>U</mi>
<mi>n</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>t</mi>
<mi>y</mi>
</mrow>
</msup>
</mfrac>
<mo>-</mo>
<mfrac>
<mn>1</mn>
<mi>T</mi>
</mfrac>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
<mo>&rsqb;</mo>
</mrow>
</msup>
<mo>&CenterDot;</mo>
<msub>
<mi>MTBF</mi>
<mi>n</mi>
</msub>
<mo>-</mo>
<mo>-</mo>
<mo>-</mo>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
</mrow>
2
In formula (1), k=8.617x10-5EV/Kelvin is Boltzmann constant, and the unit of all temperature is Kelvin, is owned
Humidity is relative humidity；For radiation intensity, determined by the height above sea level where the minimal hardware functional unit.
4. a kind of remaining reliability service life-span online Prediction method of relay protection products according to claim 1, it is special
Levy and be, step S3 specifically includes following steps,
(301) step S2 all operations are performed to all minimal hardware functional units, all minimal hardware functions are obtained
UnitReliability, the minimal hardware functional unitReliability be designated asWherein j=1 ... N；
(302) according to the overall reliability factor of influence in the step S1 minimal hardware functional units calculatedObtain overall
The reliability of relay protection productsWherein j=1 ... N；
(303) according to since operation to current time relay protection products overall reliability R with normalization run when
Between tUnityChange, the overall reliability R is estimated；
Overall reliability R, which is estimated, specifically includes following steps：The accumulative of relay protection products that selecting step S2 tests are obtained returns
One changes operating time log, it is assumed that choose X accumulative normalization operating time logs, X accumulative normalization run time notes altogether
Record is designated asIt is respectively R in each accumulative corresponding reliability of run time that normalizesx, wherein x=1 ... X；Current time
Reliability is Rc, acceptable least reliability is Rt, then the residual life of current time overall relay protection products estimate tleft
Obtained using formula (3)：
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<msub>
<mi>t</mi>
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<mi>f</mi>
<mi>t</mi>
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<mo>=</mo>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mi>ln</mi>
<mi> </mi>
<msub>
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<mi>c</mi>
</msub>
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<mi>ln</mi>
<mi> </mi>
<msub>
<mi>R</mi>
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</mrow>
<mo>&CenterDot;</mo>
<mfrac>
<mrow>
<munderover>
<mo>&Sigma;</mo>
<mrow>
<mi>x</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
</mrow>
<mi>X</mi>
</munderover>
<mo>-</mo>
<mfrac>
<msubsup>
<mi>t</mi>
<mi>x</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>U</mi>
<mi>n</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>t</mi>
<mi>y</mi>
</mrow>
</msubsup>
<mrow>
<mi>ln</mi>
<mi> </mi>
<msub>
<mi>R</mi>
<mi>x</mi>
</msub>
</mrow>
</mfrac>
</mrow>
<mi>X</mi>
</mfrac>
<mo>-</mo>
<mo>-</mo>
<mo>-</mo>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mn>3</mn>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
</mrow>
Acquisition formula (4) is changed to formula (3), relay protection products is calculated and continues to run with after special time, relay protection
The horizontal R of product reliabilityt, formula (4) is：
<mrow>
<msub>
<mi>R</mi>
<mi>t</mi>
</msub>
<mo>=</mo>
<mfrac>
<msub>
<mi>R</mi>
<mi>c</mi>
</msub>
<msup>
<mi>e</mi>
<mfrac>
<mrow>
<msub>
<mi>t</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>R</mi>
<mi>u</mi>
<mi>n</mi>
</mrow>
</msub>
<mo>&CenterDot;</mo>
<mi>X</mi>
</mrow>
<mrow>
<munderover>
<mo>&Sigma;</mo>
<mrow>
<mi>x</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
</mrow>
<mi>X</mi>
</munderover>
<mo>-</mo>
<mfrac>
<msubsup>
<mi>t</mi>
<mi>x</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>U</mi>
<mi>n</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>t</mi>
<mi>y</mi>
</mrow>
</msubsup>
<mrow>
<mi>ln</mi>
<mi> </mi>
<msub>
<mi>R</mi>
<mi>x</mi>
</msub>
</mrow>
</mfrac>
</mrow>
</mfrac>
</msup>
</mfrac>
<mo>-</mo>
<mo>-</mo>
<mo>-</mo>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mn>4</mn>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
</mrow>
T in formula (4)RunFor the time continued to run with.
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| CN102945319A (en) * | 2012-10-26 | 2013-02-27 | 华北电力大学 | Method for calculating optimal repair cycle of relay protection device in view of software and human factors |
| CN103020476A (en) * | 2012-12-28 | 2013-04-03 | 中国南方电网有限责任公司超高压输电公司 | Method and system for assessing relay protection dynamic characteristics of high-voltage direct-current power transmission line |
| CN103488872A (en) * | 2013-08-28 | 2014-01-01 | 广东电网公司电力调度控制中心 | Online early warning method for relay protection constant value |
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| CN103020476A (en) * | 2012-12-28 | 2013-04-03 | 中国南方电网有限责任公司超高压输电公司 | Method and system for assessing relay protection dynamic characteristics of high-voltage direct-current power transmission line |
| CN103488872A (en) * | 2013-08-28 | 2014-01-01 | 广东电网公司电力调度控制中心 | Online early warning method for relay protection constant value |
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