CN104851298B - Prediction traffic and running time - Google Patents

Prediction traffic and running time Download PDF

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CN104851298B
CN104851298B CN201510312501.8A CN201510312501A CN104851298B CN 104851298 B CN104851298 B CN 104851298B CN 201510312501 A CN201510312501 A CN 201510312501A CN 104851298 B CN104851298 B CN 104851298B
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traffic
time
road
segmentation road
segmentation
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CN104851298A (en
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刘光明
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Wu Ping
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G08SIGNALLING
    • G08GTRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
    • G08G1/00Traffic control systems for road vehicles
    • G08G1/01Detecting movement of traffic to be counted or controlled

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  • General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
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Abstract

The present invention relates to predict traffic and running time.Road on map is segmented;Obtain the current traffic condition of each segmentation road and the traffic of time before;Traffic based on current traffic condition with time before, calculates the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road;Current traffic condition and traffic variation tendency based on each segmentation road, estimate the traffic of the future time of each segmentation road;And the traffic of the future time of each segmentation road that will be estimated is presented on map.The present invention can be used to predict running time:Current traffic condition and traffic variation tendency based on each segmentation road, estimate each traffic of segmentation road in the time of estimated arrival, so as to estimate every running time of each segmentation road of candidate's traffic route;Total running time is estimated according to every running time of each segmentation road of candidate's traffic route.

Description

Prediction traffic and running time
Technical field
The present invention relates to map and navigation, more particularly, to prediction traffic and running time.
Background technology
At present, electronic map is widely used in Mobile solution or desktop application.As long as network support, people can be at any time Electronic map is checked everywhere, searches the destination for oneself wanting to know about.Current traffic condition can be shown on electronic map.Example Such as, green represents unimpeded section, and yellow represents low running speed section, red then represent congested link.People drive trip when, The traffic shown on map is may be referred to, on the one hand there can be certain in-mind anticipation to stroke, on the other hand can be Select to a certain extent relatively smoothly route to avoid congestion.
But, people are often that map was seen before trip, to be understood stroke or to be planned.That is, seeing Traffic during map is simultaneously not equal to actual trip to traffic during certain section.
In some electronic navigation applications, a plurality of candidate's traffic route can be provided.For this plurality of alternative route, electronics is led Boat can estimate the time that may be needed, so that people refer to when route is selected.But, the electronic navigation estimated time Typically all it is based on current traffic.Traffic during due to selection route and when being not equal to actual trip to the section Traffic, so the time phase difference that the route is spent when the time for estimating is actually with actual trip is more.
The content of the invention
In view of the situation of the above, it is desirable to add the element of the traffic of prediction future time in map.And, when During people's selection traffic route, can provide to the prediction of future traffic condition so that when more accurately estimating spent driving Between, it is for reference.
According to an aspect of the invention, there is provided a kind of method that prediction traffic is embodied on map, including such as Lower step:Road on map is segmented;Obtain the current traffic condition of each segmentation road and the traffic of time before Situation;Traffic based on current traffic condition with time before, calculates the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road; Current traffic condition and traffic variation tendency based on each segmentation road, estimate the future time of each segmentation road Traffic;And the traffic of the future time of each segmentation road that will be estimated is presented on map.
Preferably, the traffic is passage rate, by by the passage rate of current passage rate and time before It is compared and calculates each traffic variation tendency for being segmented road.
Preferably, the traffic is congestion index, by by the congestion index of cur-rent congestion index and time before It is compared and calculates each traffic variation tendency for being segmented road.
Preferably, except current traffic condition and traffic variation tendency based on each segmentation road, also based on not Carry out the event that will occur on each segmentation road, estimate the traffic of the future time of each segmentation road.
Preferably, the segmentation road on the map with different traffics is presented in different colors.
According to another aspect of the present invention, there is provided a kind of method for predicting running time, comprise the following steps:According to Departure place and destination, identify one or more candidate's traffic route on map;Every candidate's traffic route is divided Section;Obtain the traffic of every current traffic condition of each segmentation road of candidate's traffic route and time before;It is based on Every current traffic condition of each segmentation road of candidate's traffic route and the traffic of time before, calculate every candidate The traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road of traffic route;According to current traffic condition, estimate to be reached in every route The time of each segmentation road;Current traffic condition and traffic variation tendency based on each segmentation road, estimate each Traffic of the segmentation road in the time of estimated arrival;Traffic of the road in the time of estimated arrival is segmented based on each Situation, estimates every running time of each segmentation road of candidate's traffic route;And according to every candidate's traffic route Each is segmented the running time of road and estimates total running time.
Preferably, the traffic is passage rate, by by the passage rate of current passage rate and time before It is compared and calculates each traffic variation tendency for being segmented road.
Preferably, the traffic is congestion index, by by the congestion index of cur-rent congestion index and time before It is compared and calculates each traffic variation tendency for being segmented road.
Preferably, except current traffic condition and traffic variation tendency based on each segmentation road, also based on not Carry out the event that will occur on each segmentation road, estimate the traffic of the future time of each segmentation road.
Preferably, every time is obtained by the way that each running time for being segmented road of every candidate's traffic route is added Select total running time of traffic route.
Brief description of the drawings
Below with reference to the accompanying drawings it is described in conjunction with the embodiments the present invention.In the accompanying drawings:
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the method that prediction traffic is embodied on map according to embodiments of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is the flow chart of the method for prediction running time according to embodiments of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
Specific embodiment of the invention is described more fully below.
Fig. 1 is the flow chart 100 of the method that prediction traffic is embodied on map according to embodiments of the present invention.
According to Fig. 1, in step 101, the road on map is segmented first.Current electronic map is basic Road on map will be segmented, for marking different traffics.For example, the segmentation of road can be based on away from From for example, every 1 kilometer or every 500 meters, 100 meters, 50 meters, 10 meters or any other suitable distances are used as one section;Road point Section can also be based on the setting of traffic lights, and the road for example, each two between (or more) traffic lights is used as one Section;The segmentation of road can also be based on the planning of block, for example, the road between each block, each crossroad is used as one Section.In theory, roadway segment is thinner, and the traffic for being reflected is also more accurate, but simultaneously for the meter of electronic map Calculate also higher with the requirement of storage.Further it should be noted that on same path or on same route, the segmentation of road Standard can with difference, therefore, some sections are 500 meters, 1 kilometer of some sections.
In step 103, the current traffic condition of each segmentation road and the traffic of time before are obtained.
The mode for obtaining the traffic of road has many kinds.For example, investigating the automobile in certain hour by this section Travel speed, in certain hour by the number of end to end automobile in this section etc..According to different modes, reflection is handed over The physical quantity of logical situation can be road speed, or congestion index.For example, using road speed as reflection traffic Physical quantity, speed per hour 40-60 kilometers is regarded as unimpeded, and speed per hour 20-40 kilometers is regarded as low running speed, 20 kilometers of speed per hour with Under be regarded as congestion, be regarded as heavy congestion, etc. below 5 kilometers of speed per hour.In another example, using congestion index as Reflect the physical quantity of traffic, it is, for example possible to use the congestion index of 0-10, congestion index is bigger, shows that traffic is got over Congestion;Conversely, congestion index is smaller, then show that traffic is more unobstructed.Congestion index can be interior by this based on certain hour The travel speed of the automobile in section is obtained, it is also possible to the number based on the end to end automobile for passing through this section in certain hour Etc. obtaining.
In step 103, the open real time data of office's actual measurement can be administered by local transit and obtains Current traffic The passage rate or congestion index of situation, such as section.Meanwhile, the section can be found before according to history big data The traffic of time, for example the section is in passage rate at that time or congestion index.
In the present invention, also refer to for a period of time 5 minutes, 10 minutes, 15 minutes or any other appropriate times Before section.
In step 105, the traffic based on current traffic condition with time before calculates the traffic of each segmentation road Changed condition trend.In one embodiment, current traffic condition is compared with the traffic of time before, to calculate The traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road.
For example, traffic variation tendency can be the variation tendency of speed, will currently passage rate and before time Passage rate be compared.Specifically, by current passage rate and the difference of the passage rate of time and before time before Passage rate compare, the ratio for obtaining be velocity variations Trend index.For example, the current passage rate in a certain section is 50 public In/hour, 15 minutes passage rates before are 40 kilometers/hour, then the velocity variations Trend index in 15 minutes is:(50- 40)/40=+0.25.In another example, the current passage rate in a certain section is 40 kilometers/hour, and 15 minutes before Passage rate is 50 kilometers/hour, then the velocity variations Trend index in 15 minutes is:(40-50)/50=-0.20.Namely Say, the symbol of velocity variations Trend index (+or -) represents that speed is that improving or reduce, and specific numerical value is then change Degree.
Similarly, traffic variation tendency can be congestion index (for example, between 0 to 10, the bigger expression of numerical value is more gathered around It is stifled) variation tendency, will cur-rent congestion index be compared with the congestion index of time before.Specifically, will currently gather around Index is blocked up with the difference of the congestion index of time before compared with the congestion index of time before, the ratio for obtaining is that congestion change becomes Gesture index.For example, it is 4.0 that the cur-rent congestion index in a certain section is 5.0,15 minutes congestion indexes before, then in 15 minutes Congestion variation tendency index be:(5.0-4.0)/4.0=+0.25.In another example, the cur-rent congestion in a certain section refers to Number is 5.0 for 4.0,15 minutes congestion indexes before, then the congestion variation tendency index in 15 minutes is:(4.0-5.0)/ 5.0=-0.20.That is, the symbol (+or -) of congestion variation tendency index represents that congestion is that aggravating or alleviate, and have The numerical value of body is then the degree of change.
Above-mentioned velocity variations Trend index and congestion variation tendency index is all the example of traffic variation tendency.
Additionally, before the traffic of time is probably multiple before the time traffic.Therefore, it can by several The traffic at time point and obtain the curve of traffic variation tendency.
In general, user wishes to predict the traffic of future time, such as 30 minutes traffics afterwards of prediction. If being currently 16:00, user wishes prediction 30 minutes afterwards, i.e., 16:30 traffic.
In step 107, current traffic condition and traffic variation tendency based on each segmentation road estimate each point The traffic of the future time of Duan Daolu.
For example, for a certain segmentation road, 16:16 are predicted when 00:30 traffic, can use 16:00 friendship Logical situation is multiplied by (1+ traffics variation tendency (such as traffic variation tendency) * time scales), thus estimates to have obtained 16: 30 traffic.The process can be calculated as follows:
Speed:30 kilometers/hour of * (1+0.25*30/15)=45 kilometer/hour
Congestion:4.0* (1-0.20*30/15)=2.4
Here, the speed or 4.0 that the example employed in step 105, i.e. current traffic condition are 30 kilometers/hour is continued to use Congestion index, traffic variation tendency in 15 minutes is that velocity variations Trend index+0.25 and congestion variation tendency refer to Number -0.20.
It is noted here that future time should be matched with for calculating the time of variation tendency, for example, after predicting 30 minutes Traffic, can be used the variation tendency in 15 minutes, and should not be using the variation tendency in 5 minutes.Especially, for when Between span it is larger, such as half an hour or more than one hour, (curve matching) should be estimated by the way of change trend curve Count and apply variation tendency.
Except current traffic condition and traffic variation tendency based on each segmentation road, it is also based on following each The event that will occur on individual segmentation road, estimates the traffic of the future time of each segmentation road.
For example, as it is known that certain section is because foreign affairs activity is 16:30 will carry out traffic control (for example, limitation is current).Estimating During the traffic of the future time for counting each segmentation road, it is also contemplated that this case, will based on current traffic condition and The traffic of the future time that traffic variation tendency is estimated further is changed.
In step 109, the traffic of the future time of each segmentation road that will be estimated is presented on map.Pass through The step of above, each segmentation road on map has estimated the traffic of each comfortable future time.Need these The traffic of prediction, is presented on map.Wherein, for the segmentation road that prediction traffic is different, on map Different presentations are carried out respectively.In one embodiment, present in different colors on the map with different prediction traffics Segmentation road.It will be understood by those skilled in the art that presentation mode besides colour, can also be gray scale, texture, shade, Flicker, it might even be possible to be the differentiation presentation in terms of auditory tone cues, voice message, tonal variations, or tactile.
By the method for the flow chart 100 of Fig. 1, people are easier to understand traffic by watching map.For example, with Family can select to check current traffic condition when traffic is checked in selection, it is also possible to selection check following certain time or The prediction traffic of certain period.So, people can have certain in-mind anticipation to following trip, it is also possible to according to pre- Survey to plan or adjust time and the stroke of oneself.
Fig. 2 is the flow chart 200 of the method for prediction running time according to embodiments of the present invention.
According to Fig. 2, in step 201, according to departure place and destination, one or more time is identified on map Select traffic route.Current many electronic maps all have the function of stroke planning or traffic navigation, additionally, automatic navigator is also all Function with stroke planning or traffic navigation.According to the selected destination of user and user current location (departure place) or The departure place that person user specifies, identifies one or several candidate's traffic route on map.For example, identifying route 1, route 2nd, three traffic routes such as route 3.
In step 203, every candidate's traffic route is segmented.In step 205, every candidate's traffic route of acquisition The traffic of the current traffic condition of each segmentation and before time.
Traffic on obtaining every current traffic condition of each segmentation of candidate's traffic route and time before Mode, be referred to the specific discussion of step 103 in the flow chart of Fig. 1.
In step 207, the friendship based on every current traffic condition of each segmentation of candidate's traffic route with time before Logical situation, calculates every traffic variation tendency of each segmentation of candidate's traffic route.In one embodiment, the friendship Logical situation is passage rate, calculates each and is segmented by the way that current passage rate is compared with the passage rate of time before The traffic variation tendency of road.In another embodiment, the traffic is congestion index, by by cur-rent congestion Index is compared with the congestion index of time before and calculates each traffic variation tendency for being segmented road.It is referred to The specific discussion of step 105 in the flow chart of Fig. 1.
It is noted here that future time should be matched with for calculating the time of variation tendency, for example, after predicting 30 minutes Traffic, can be used the variation tendency in 15 minutes, and should not be using the variation tendency in 5 minutes.Especially, for when Between span it is larger, such as half an hour or more than one hour, (curve matching) should be estimated by the way of change trend curve Count and apply variation tendency.
In step 209, according to current traffic condition, estimate to reach each time for being segmented road in every route.It is existing Electronic navigation application be respectively provided with corresponding function.In fact, equivalent to allowing electronic navigation to be counted respectively according to current traffic condition Calculate the time from needed for starting point to each segmentation road.For example, in certain alternative route, one has 10 segmentation roads, then According to each segmentation road current traffic condition calculate respectively from starting point to the 2nd, the 3rd ..., the 10th segmentation road Time needed for road.For example, be respectively necessary for 10 minutes, 20 minutes ..., 70 minutes.
In step 211, current traffic condition and traffic variation tendency based on each segmentation road estimate each point Traffics of the Duan Daolu in the time of estimated arrival.
Still continue to use above have 10 segmentation road examples.Obtained the 1st, the 2nd, the 3rd ... the 10th The current traffic condition of individual segmentation road.For example, current vehicle speed be respectively 40,40,30 ..., 50 kilometers/hour, or work as Preceding congestion index is respectively 4.0,4.0,4.8 ..., 3.0.And the traffic variation tendency of these segmentation roads is respectively 0.0th ,+0.1 (in 5 minutes) ,+0.2 (in 10 minutes) ... ,+0.2 (in 60 minutes) (speed trend) or 0.0, -0.1 (5 points In clock), -0.2 (in 10 minutes) ..., -0.2 (in 60 minutes) (congestion tendency).Therefore, it can estimate that each is segmented as follows Traffic of the road in estimated arrival time:
1st segmentation road:Currently -40 kilometers/hour of speed, congestion index 4.0;
2nd segmentation road:After 10 minutes-and estimate speed 40* (1+0.1*10/5)=48 kilometer/hour, estimate congestion Index 4.0* (1-0.1*10/5)=3.2;
3rd segmentation road:After 20 minutes-and estimate speed 30* (1+0.2*20/10)=42 kilometer/hour, estimate congestion Index 4.8* (1-0.2*10/5)=2.88;
……
10th segmentation road:After 70 minutes-and estimate speed 50* (1+0.2*70/60)=61.7 kilometer/hour, estimate Congestion index 3.0* (1-0.2*70/60)=2.3.
Except current traffic condition and traffic variation tendency based on each segmentation road, it is also based on following each The event that will occur on individual segmentation road, estimates the traffic of the future time of each segmentation road.
For example, as it is known that certain section will carry out traffic control (for example, limitation is current) due to foreign affairs activity after half an hour. When estimating the traffic of future time of each segmentation road, it is also contemplated that this case, will be based on current traffic condition The traffic of the future time estimated with traffic variation tendency is further changed.
In step 213, based on each traffic of segmentation road in the time of estimated arrival, every candidate row is estimated The running time of each segmentation road of bus or train route line.
For example, the time of the estimated arrival estimated in step 213 is respectively divided by with each length for being segmented road Speed, has just obtained the running time of each estimated segmentation road.Or, the length of road is segmented and in step based on each The congestion index of the time of the estimated arrival estimated in rapid 213, when can also obtain the driving of each estimated segmentation road Between.For example, still continue to use above have 10 segmentation road examples, obtain the 1st, the 2nd, the 3rd ..., the 10th Be segmented road running time be respectively 10 minutes, 8 minutes, 9 minutes ..., 5 minutes.
In step 215, when estimating always to drive a vehicle according to every running time of each segmentation road of candidate's traffic route Between.
Obtain every candidate and drive a vehicle by the way that each running time for being segmented road of every candidate's traffic route is added Total running time of route.For example, still continue to use above have 10 segmentation road examples, by the 1st, the 2nd, the 3rd It is individual ..., the running time of the 10th segmentation road be separately summed and obtain N=10+8+9+ ...+5.Every candidate's traffic route Total running time is N minutes.
In some electronic navigation applications, one or more candidate's traffic route can be provided.For this one or more time Routing line, electronic navigation can estimate the time that may be needed, so that people refer to when route is selected.But, electronic navigation The estimated time is typically all based on current traffic.Due to selecting traffic during route and being not equal to reality Go on a journey to the traffic during section, so the time that the route is spent when the time for estimating is actually with actual trip Difference is more.
In view of the situation of the above, the invention enables when people select traffic route, can provide to future transportation shape The prediction of condition is for reference so as to more accurately estimate spent running time.
Embodiments of the invention are described above.But the spirit and scope of the present invention not limited to this.This area skill Art personnel are possible to teaching of the invention and make more applications, and are within the scope of the present invention.

Claims (6)

1. a kind of method that prediction traffic is embodied on map, comprises the following steps:
Road on map is segmented;
Obtain the current traffic condition of each segmentation road and the traffic of time before;
Traffic based on current traffic condition with time before, calculates the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road;
Based on current traffic condition and the traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road, estimate each segmentation road it is following when Between traffic;And
The traffic of the future time of each segmentation road that will be estimated is presented on map,
Wherein, the traffic is passage rate or congestion index, and the traffic variation tendency is that velocity variations become Gesture index or congestion variation tendency index,
By current passage rate with the passage rate of time before difference compared with the passage rate of time before, the ratio for obtaining It is velocity variations Trend index,
By cur-rent congestion index with the congestion index of time before difference compared with the congestion index of time before, the ratio for obtaining It is congestion variation tendency index.
2. method according to claim 1, wherein, the current traffic condition based on each segmentation road becomes with traffic Change trend, estimates the traffic of the future time of each segmentation road, further includes:Except based on each segmentation road Current traffic condition and traffic variation tendency, also based on the event that will occur on following each segmentation road, estimate each The traffic of the future time of individual segmentation road.
3. method according to claim 1, wherein, the traffic of the future time of each segmentation road that will be calculated Being presented on map includes:The segmentation road on the map with different traffics is presented in different colors.
4. a kind of method for predicting running time, comprises the following steps:
According to departure place and destination, one or more candidate's traffic route is identified on map;
Every candidate's traffic route is segmented;
Obtain the traffic of every current traffic condition of each segmentation road of candidate's traffic route and time before;
Based on every current traffic condition of each segmentation road of candidate's traffic route and the traffic of time before, calculate Every traffic variation tendency of each segmentation road of candidate's traffic route;
According to current traffic condition, estimate to reach each time for being segmented road in every route;
Current traffic condition and traffic variation tendency based on each segmentation road, estimate each segmentation road estimated The traffic of the time of arrival;
Based on each traffic of segmentation road in the time of estimated arrival, every each point of candidate's traffic route is estimated The running time of Duan Daolu;And
Total running time is estimated according to every running time of each segmentation road of candidate's traffic route,
Wherein, the traffic is passage rate or congestion index, and the traffic variation tendency is that velocity variations become Gesture index or congestion variation tendency index,
By current passage rate with the passage rate of time before difference compared with the passage rate of time before, the ratio for obtaining It is velocity variations Trend index,
By cur-rent congestion index with the congestion index of time before difference compared with the congestion index of time before, the ratio for obtaining It is congestion variation tendency index.
5. method according to claim 4, wherein, the current traffic condition based on each segmentation road becomes with traffic Change trend, estimates that each segmentation road, in the traffic of the time of estimated arrival, is further included:Except based on each point The current traffic condition of Duan Daolu and traffic variation tendency, also based on the thing that will occur on following each segmentation road Part, estimates the traffic of the future time of each segmentation road.
6. method according to claim 4, wherein, during driving according to every each segmentation road of candidate's traffic route Between and estimating total running time includes:Obtained by the way that each running time for being segmented road of every candidate's traffic route is added To every total running time of candidate's traffic route.
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