CN104627348B - A kind of solar energy dirigible regenerated energy real-time estimate and energy dynamics distribution method - Google Patents
A kind of solar energy dirigible regenerated energy real-time estimate and energy dynamics distribution method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of solar energy dirigible regenerated energy real-time estimate and energy dynamics distribution method, including three methods, method 1.1, method 1.2 and method 1.3. Method 1.1, according to the direct solar radiation value measured in real time, in conjunction with the energy of solar energy dirigible regeneration in solar radiation model prediction following a period of time; Method 1.2, determines task action value according to the dissipative load of dirigible task, possible operation time; Method 1.3, the energy value and the task action value that regenerate in conjunction with dirigible in following certain time period dynamically distribute dirigible energy so that dirigible energy obtains maximally effective utilization. The present invention is capable of the real-time reasonable distribution of dirigible energy.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to stratospheric airship energy dynamics distribution method, be specifically related to a kind of solar energy dirigible regenerated energy real-time estimate and energy dynamics distribution method.
Background technology
High Altitude Platform refers to a platform of distance earth's surface 17 22KM, generally refers to fill Helium Airship. High Altitude Platform generally has inexpensively, it is little to postpone, be prone to the advantages such as deployment nearest decades as the focus of human research, has played critically important effect in Natural calamity monitoring, ground emergency communication and weather monitoring etc.
Particularity due to dirigible local environment, its energy is mainly derived from direct solar radiation, because direct solar radiation is by the impact of the external factor such as time, season, cause that dirigible accepts unstable during energy, limited, so how rationally solve its energy relations of distribution and the operation normally and efficiently of whole system. In existing dirigible energy allocative decision, major part is fuzzyyer, not performing required by task from the continuous dynamic realtime change of dirigible energy sources and dirigible wants the Real-time and Dynamic change of the energy to go to consider, such as Fang Lijuan utilizes finite state machine according to the state assignment energy that can need with the energy at " Optimal Management System of stratospheric airship multiple-energy-source ", do not account for energy a period of time in future can regenerate how many energy, she only considered can need size, without from the viewpoint of the action value tasks carrying of the task importance to dirigible system. " hourly total solar irradiance Predicting Technique research next day based on wavelet network " in such as woods star spring, he solve total solar radiation by time prediction, but do not make full use of in reality the radiation value of sun regenerated in real time as the foundation of real-time estimate.
Summary of the invention
It is an object of the invention to, it is proposed to a kind of solar energy dirigible regenerated energy real-time estimate and energy dynamics distribution method, in order to realize the real-time reasonable distribution of dirigible energy.
To achieve these goals, the technical scheme that the present invention proposes is, a kind of solar energy dirigible regenerated energy real-time estimate and energy dynamics distribution method, it is characterized in that described method includes following three method, method 1.1, method 1.2 and method 1.3:
1.1, the method being produced direct emittance based on the sun in a kind of real-time estimate a period of time in future of solar radiation model, the method is according to the direct solar radiation value measured in real time, and comprehensively utilizes solar radiation model and be predicted;
1.2, the method determining dirigible energy assignment order based on dirigible task action value, the method passes through the dissipative load of dirigible task, possible job start time and end time these three because usually determining task action value;
1.3, dirigible energy dynamics distribution method is set up by real-time estimate solar energy dirigible regenerated energy and task action value.
And method 1.1 comprises the following steps:
Step 1: utilize solar radiation model calculate the sun in a day from sun to sun in the direct radiation value of solar theory that regenerates of each time point, it is fitted returning by method of least square, obtains calculating formula f (the x)=a*x of the direct solar radiation value of this day each time point2+ b*x+c, wherein x is as a following time point, a, b, and c is the coefficient of calculating formula;
Step 2: utilize the direct solar radiation value that a time point is measured in real time to be divided by the ratio produced as correction factor �� with this time point by the theoretical value that polynomial computation goes out, revise a correction factor �� by the method real-time measurement values to a following time point and predictive value every T minute, obtain real-time prediction model g (x)=�� * (ax2+ bx+c);
Step 3: utilize y=(��t*Ap)((1/3at2 3+1/2bt2 2+ct2)-(1/3at1 3+1/2bt1 2+ct1)) the energy value y, wherein t of regeneration in prediction dirigible a period of time in future1, t2Represent beginning and the end of this period of time, ��tRepresent the conversion efficiency of dirigible solaode, ApRepresent the effective radiating area of dirigible.
The method makes full use of the radiation value that each time point measures in real time and the predictive value of next time point is revised in real time can improve predictablity rate, provides excellent basis for the accurate Real-time and Dynamic distribution of dirigible energy.
Method 1.2 comprises the following steps:
Step 21: assume that dirigible set of tasks is T={t1,t2,t3��,tn, each task has three attribute ti=(Si,Fi,Li), wherein SiThe time started of expression task, FiThe end time of task, LiThe load power consumption of task, utilizes Vi=(Fi-Si)*LiObtain task action value Vi;
Step 22: according to the action value V that each task is calculatedi, it is arranged in order size, ViMore big action value is more high-level more big, it is possible to priority allocation is to energy;
The method effectively utilizes the size that system regeneration is worth by tasks carrying to determine the precedence of energy distribution, and on reasonable contemplation dirigible, each task performs the effect to dirigible regeneration.
Step 23: complete required energy value L according to what the load estimation of the estimated time of commencement of task, end time and task was gone out on missions;
Method 1.3 comprises the following steps:
Step 31: for stratospheric airship self energy structural particularity, solar energy is preferentially used when there being direct solar radiation, next to that fuel cell, it is finally as emergent lithium ion battery, fuel cell is preferentially used when there is no solar radiation, next to that lithium ion battery, in order to ensure the service life of battery, lithium ion battery not can exceed that 0.8 and lower than 0.2 respectively in the charge state value charged and discharged;
Step 32: system first checks for the working condition of each energy module before performing system task, if any one energy module does not work, then it is switched to workable module, each energy module is combined as system energy supply as required, if the system detects that system total energy total value less than system total value 15% time, then needing to stop to running or waiting the task energy supply run, this portion of energy to be used for the energy supply in system emergency situation;
Step 33: when task needs to perform time, system detects while first the energy of this required by task being calculated whether system energy can meet the normal operation of this task and whole system while running other tasks, if this task can not be met, need the action value of consideration task, if the task that present system-value degree is relatively low is then stopped the energy supply of this task to meet the task that action value is high by action value high task when being necessary when not influential system safe handling;
Step 34: first predict that this task completes the energy L being likely to need according to step 23, then judge dirigible dump energy whether more than current task to energy requirement, if greater than, then directly distribute, if less than, then the dirigible dump energy after prediction interior generation of following a period of time radiation value, then utilizes dynamic programming method distribution dump energy so that the value maximization that in dirigible, dump energy produces.
What the method was concrete proposes dirigible energy dynamics distribution method, mainly while distributing energy according to the action value of task, adds the real-time estimate to energy so that the distribution of energy becomes more reasonable, real-time.
Beneficial effects of the present invention: first, in the present invention direct solar radiation energy real-time estimate and other Forecasting Methodology the difference is that, make full use of the direct radiation value that in reality, each moment Real-time Collection arrives and carry out the forecast model of real-time regular correction oneself, this interval is approximately in be revised once for about T minute, thus the size of prediction dirigible interior regeneration amount of radiation during this period of time that can be real-time according to the area of effective coverage of solar energy dirigible and the conversion efficiency of solaode, the purpose constantly revised based on actual prediction value improves precision of prediction exactly; Secondly, the present invention combines the real-time estimate to following a period of time regenerated energy size on the basis distributed based on dirigible task action value energy, can reasonably distribute energy more in real time relative to other distribution methods. Therefore the present invention proposes a kind of solar energy dirigible regenerated energy real-time estimate and energy dynamics distribution method.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is solar energy dirigible regenerated energy real-time estimate flow chart
Fig. 2 be 20140322 this day 6:00��18:00 each whole time the theoretical radiation value of time point and matched curve figure
Fig. 3 is that 9:00-10:00 predicted direct solar radiation Regenerated energy value figure every six minutes
Fig. 4 is dirigible energy dynamics distribution method flow chart
Detailed description of the invention
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, principles of the invention and feature being described, example is served only for explaining the present invention, is not intended to limit the scope of the present invention.
Fig. 1 is solar energy dirigible regenerated energy real-time estimate flow chart, and concrete Forecasting Methodology comprises the following steps:
Step 1: utilize solar radiation model calculate the sun in a day from sun to sun in the direct radiation value of solar theory that regenerates of each time point, it is fitted returning by method of least square, obtains calculating formula f (the x)=a*x of the direct solar radiation value of this day each time point2+ b*x+c, wherein x is as a following time point, a, b, and c is the coefficient of calculating formula;
Step 2: utilize the direct solar radiation value that a time point is measured in real time to be divided by the ratio produced as correction factor �� with this time point by the theoretical value that polynomial computation goes out, revise a correction factor �� by the method real-time measurement values to a following time point and predictive value every T minute, obtain real-time prediction model g (x)=�� * (ax2+ bx+c);
Step 3: utilize y=(��t*Ap)((1/3at2 3+1/2bt2 2+ct2)-(1/3at1 3+1/2bt1 2+ct1)) the energy value y, wherein t of regeneration in prediction dirigible a period of time in future1, t2Represent beginning and the end of this period of time, ��tRepresent the conversion efficiency of dirigible solaode, ApRepresent the effective radiating area of dirigible,The wherein incident angle of the B sun, n=L/d, L represents the length of dirigible main shaft, the diameter of d dirigible. In order to guarantee the real-time estimate to direct solar radiation energy, the present invention, by setting up direct solar radiation energy balane model accurately, has considered the factors such as day of year, latitude, the inclination angle of plane, deflection. By calculating north latitude 32 degree, the theoretical radiation value in 20140322 this day each integral point moment, take the radiation value of interior each time point during this period of time in morning 6 at 6 in afternoon, it is fitted returning by method of least square, obtains based on the One-place 2-th Order multinomial y=-39.2944x in this period of time2+ 950.3725x-4365.9691. Fig. 2 is shown in concrete each radiation value and matched curve. The actual value 899.90W of theoretical radiation value 967.644W and measurement acquisition that the present invention takes this moment of 9:00 carries out being divided by and obtains scale factor 0.93, this One-place 2-th Order multinomial y it is multiplied by again, as the model of the radiation value of the next time point of prediction as correction factor. Therefore the present invention is in order to embody real-time estimate, this hour of 9:00��10:00 is divided into ten parts every 6 minutes, correction factor is once revised exactly, then obtains predictive value, and then basis was every the predictive value of 6 minutes, passed throughIt is 94.5400W that this formula calculates 9:00��9:06 amount of radiation regenerated in during this period of time, then goes out, according to the actual area coverage of solar energy film of dirigible surface reality and efficiency calculation, the energy value that dirigible regenerates in during this period of time. In this period of time concrete, within this period of time of prediction of six minutes, the direct solar radiation amount of regeneration is shown in Fig. 3.
Determine the method 1.2 of dirigible energy assignment order based on dirigible task action value, comprise the following steps:
Step 21: assume that dirigible set of tasks is T={t1,t2,t3��,tn, each task has three attribute ti=(Si,Fi,Li), wherein SiThe time started that expression task is estimated, FiThe end time that task is estimated, LiThe load power consumption of task, utilizes formula Vi=(Fi-Si)*LiObtain task action value Vi;
Step 22: according to the action value V that each task is calculatedi, it is arranged in order size, ViMore big action value is more high-level more big, it is possible to priority allocation is to energy;
Step 23: can be evaluated whether that goes out on missions completes required energy value L according to the load of the estimated time of commencement of task, end time and task.
Fig. 4 is dirigible energy dynamics distribution method, and the flow chart of method 1.3 specifically has following four step:
Step 31: for stratospheric airship self energy structural particularity, solar energy is preferentially used when there being direct solar radiation, next to that fuel cell, it is finally as emergent lithium ion battery, fuel cell is preferentially used when there is no solar radiation, next to that lithium ion battery, in order to ensure the service life of battery, lithium ion battery not can exceed that 0.8 and lower than 0.2 respectively in the charge state value charged and discharged;
Step 32: system first checks for the working condition of each energy module before performing system task, if any one energy module does not work, then it is switched to workable module, each energy module is combined as system energy supply as required, if the system detects that system total energy total value less than system total value 15% time, then needing to stop to running or waiting the task energy supply run, this portion of energy to be used for the energy supply in system emergency situation;
Step 33: when task needs to perform time, system detects while first the energy of this required by task being calculated whether system energy can meet the normal operation of this task and whole system while running other tasks, if this task can not be met, need the action value of consideration task, if the task that present system-value degree is relatively low is then stopped the energy supply of this task to meet the task that action value is high by action value high task when being necessary when not influential system safe handling;
Step 34: first predict that this task completes the energy L being likely to need according to step 23, then judge dirigible dump energy whether more than current task to energy requirement, if greater than, then directly distribute, if less than, then the dirigible dump energy after prediction interior generation of following a period of time radiation value, then utilizes dynamic programming method distribution dump energy so that the value maximization that in dirigible, dump energy produces.
The foregoing is only the present invention preferably detailed description of the invention; but protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto; any those familiar with the art is in the technical scope that the invention discloses; the change that can readily occur in or replacement, all should be encompassed in protection scope of the present invention. Therefore, protection scope of the present invention should be as the criterion with the protection domain of claim.
Claims (1)
1. a solar energy dirigible regenerated energy real-time estimate and energy dynamics distribution method, it is characterised in that include method 1.1, method 1.2 and method 1.3:
1.1, the method being produced direct emittance based on the sun in a kind of real-time estimate a period of time in future of solar radiation model, the method is according to the direct solar radiation value measured in real time, and comprehensively utilizes solar radiation model and be predicted;
1.2, the method determining dirigible energy assignment order based on dirigible task action value, the method passes through the dissipative load of dirigible task, possible job start time and end time these three because usually determining task action value;
1.3, according to method 1.1 and method 1.2, dirigible energy dynamics distribution method is set up by real-time estimate solar energy dirigible regenerated energy and task action value;
Described method 1.1 comprises the following steps:
Step 1: utilize solar radiation model calculate the sun in a day from sun to sun in the direct radiation value of solar theory that regenerates of each time point, it is fitted returning by method of least square, obtains calculating formula f (the x)=a*x of the direct solar radiation value of this day each time point2+ b*x+c, wherein x is as a following time point, a, b, and c is the coefficient of calculating formula;
Step 2: utilize the direct solar radiation value that a time point is measured in real time to be divided by the ratio produced as correction factor �� with this time point by the theoretical value that polynomial computation goes out, revise a correction factor �� by the method every T minute, obtain real-time prediction model g (x)=�� * (ax2+ bx+c);
Step 3: utilize y=(�� * ��t*Ap)((1/3at2 3+1/2bt2 2+ct2)-(1/3at1 3+1/2bt1 2+ct1)) the energy value y, wherein t of regeneration in prediction dirigible a period of time in future1, t2Represent beginning and the end of this period of time, ��tRepresent the conversion efficiency of dirigible solaode, ApRepresent the effective radiating area of dirigible;
Described method 1.2 comprises the following steps:
Step 21: assume that dirigible set of tasks is T={t1,t2,t3��,tn, each task has three attribute ti=(Si,Fi,Li), wherein SiThe time started of expression task, FiThe end time of task, LiThe load power consumption of task, utilizes Vi=(Fi-Si)*LiObtain task action value Vi;
Step 22: according to the action value V that each task is calculatedi, it is arranged in order size, ViMore big action value is more high-level more big, it is possible to priority allocation is to energy;
Step 23: complete required energy value L according to what the load estimation of the estimated time of commencement of task, end time and task was gone out on missions;
Described method 1.3 comprises the following steps:
Step 31: for stratospheric airship self energy structural particularity, solar energy is preferentially used when there being direct solar radiation, next to that fuel cell, it is finally as emergent lithium ion battery, fuel cell is preferentially used when there is no solar radiation, next to that lithium ion battery, in order to ensure the service life of battery, lithium ion battery not can exceed that 0.8 and lower than 0.2 respectively in the charge state value charged and discharged;
Step 32: system first checks for the working condition of each energy module before performing system task, if any one energy module does not work, then it is switched to workable module, each energy module is combined as system energy supply as required, if the system detects that system total energy total value less than system total value 15% time, then needing to stop to running or waiting the task energy supply run, this portion of energy to be used for the energy supply in system emergency situation;
Step 33: when task needs to perform time, system detects while first the energy of this required by task being calculated whether system energy can meet the normal operation of this task and whole system while running other tasks, if this task can not be met, needing the action value of consideration task, the task that action value is high can stop the energy supply of the relatively low task of present system-value degree to meet the task that action value is high when not influential system safe handling;
Step 34: first predict that this task completes the energy L being likely to need according to step 23, then judge dirigible dump energy whether more than current task to energy requirement, if greater than, then directly distribute, if less than, then the dirigible dump energy after prediction interior generation of following a period of time radiation value, then utilizes dynamic programming method distribution dump energy so that the value maximization that in dirigible, dump energy produces.
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