CN102281016A - Clear-sky photovoltaic super-short-term power forecast method based on real-time radiation acquisition technology - Google Patents
Clear-sky photovoltaic super-short-term power forecast method based on real-time radiation acquisition technology Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a clear-sky photovoltaic super-short-term power forecast method based on a real-time radiation acquisition technology. In the method, a relation formula between a cutting plane radiation intensity of atmosphere under the clear sky and a ground radiation intensity is used and a real time data of a ground radiation automation environment monitoring station is combined so as to predict a solar radiation intensity of the ground in 0-4 hours. A prediction result, as a parameter, is input into a photoelectric conversion model so as to output generated power of a photovoltaic power station in 0-4 hours. According to the prediction result, a coordinated cooperation between a conventional power supply and the photovoltaic power generation can be overall arranged by grid scheduling; a power grid operation mode can be reasonably arranged; real time scheduling adjustment can be optimized; more photovoltaic power generation can be accepted. Besides, a spinning reserve capacity of an electric power system and operation costs can be reduced so that a solar energy resource can be fully used. Greenhouse gas emission can be reduced so as to obtain more economic benefits and social benefits.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to photovoltaic and be transported to electro-technical field, relate to the method for under a kind of clear sky photovoltaic plant being carried out ultrashort phase power forecast, following 0-4 hour of forecast timeliness, the future position temporal resolution is 15 minutes, per 15 minutes rolling circular predictions.
Background technology
Solar energy power generating is to utilize the photovoltaic effect principle of solar cell solar radiant energy directly to be converted to a kind of forms of electricity generation of electric energy.Under the pressure of global energy anxiety and ecological deterioration, photovoltaic generation is subjected to the attention of countries in the world, and the photovoltaic generation industry is rapidly developed.Along with the enforcement of building photovoltaic subsidy policy and " the golden sun " engineering in 2009, greatly promoted the process of China's photovoltaic generation.Yet because the unsteadiness of solar energy power generating, giving is incorporated into the power networks has brought certain difficulty, in order reasonably to dispose the photovoltaic generation amount in the electrical network, need the energy output of photovoltaic plant be forecast.
For the forecast of photovoltaic generation, at present great majority rely on satellite photoes and meteorological datas, forecast is main rely on for many years the solar radiation historical data and by the prediction of following cloud amount and then the thinking that photovoltaic generation is forecast.The present invention proposes the method for under a kind of clear sky photovoltaic plant being carried out ultrashort phase power forecast.We know that the instantaneous intensity of solar radiation in section, exoatmosphere is only relevant with the intensity of solar radiation and the solar radiation direction in the atmosphere upper bound, and these can obtain by astronomical relevant formula accurate Calculation; If we know the relational expression between the instantaneous intensity of solar radiation in instantaneous intensity of solar radiation near the ground and section, exoatmosphere, just can extrapolate subaerial solar irradiance in real time; In same place, be all under the clear sky weather condition relational expression height correlation of the inevitable and prediction of the relational expression of preceding a couple of days day; And the relational expression of preceding a couple of days we can obtain by historical data statistics.So for ultrashort phase photovoltaic plant power forecast clear sky model, we adopt preferred statistical method that modeling is carried out in the clear sky radiation based on historical radiation data, and in addition in real time radiation data is proofreaied and correct, be equipped with the opto-electronic conversion model again, and then predict following 0-4 hour generated output.
Summary of the invention
The object of the present invention is to provide under a kind of clear sky photovoltaic power station power generation power is carried out the method for forecast of ultrashort phase accurately, improve the photovoltaic generation utilance, ensure electric power netting safe running, reduce greenhouse gas emission.
The power forecasting procedure of ultrashort phase of clear sky photovoltaic that the invention provides based on real-time radiation acquisition technique may further comprise the steps:
1) the historical power data to the historical radiation data of automatic monitor station, photovoltaic plant screens analysis, weeds out irrational data;
2) calculate the instantaneous intensity of solar radiation in historical day section, exoatmosphere recently,, set up the relational expression between the two in conjunction with the historical radiation data of automatic monitor station on the same day;
3) the instantaneous intensity of solar radiation in the section, exoatmosphere of the point of accurate Calculation forecast in real time, the substitution relational expression tentatively obtains terrestrial surface radiation intensity;
4) utilize the real-time Monitoring Data of terrestrial surface radiation that the terrestrial surface radiation intensity that calculates is proofreaied and correct in real time, and then predict following 0-4 hour surface solar radiation intensity comparatively exactly;
5) relational expression between the historical power data of statistical computation photovoltaic plant and the historical radiation data of automatic monitor station on the same day is set up the opto-electronic conversion model;
6) with surface solar radiation prediction of strength value input opto-electronic conversion model, tentatively obtain following 0-4 hour photovoltaic power station power generation power;
7) utilize photovoltaic plant realtime power Monitoring Data that photovoltaic power station power generation power prediction value is proofreaied and correct in real time, and then predict following 0-4 hour photovoltaic power station power generation power comparatively exactly.
Power forecasting procedure of ultrashort phase of clear sky photovoltaic based on real-time radiation acquisition technique provided by the invention, its core is to form effective relational expression and combined ground autoemission monitoring station real-time telemetry technology is carried out ultrashort phase power prediction to photovoltaic plant.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is the algorithm logic flow chart.
Embodiment
Power prediction algorithm of ultrashort phase of photovoltaic of the present invention is made of three links: the radiation relational expression under the clear sky is set up, and the solar radiation prediction reaches in real time proofreaies and correct, photovoltaic plant power prediction and correction in real time, and algorithm flow is as shown in Figure 1.It mainly is to calculate the instantaneous intensity of solar radiation in historical day section, exoatmosphere recently that relational expression under the clear sky is set up, and in conjunction with the historical radiation data of automatic monitor station on the same day, sets up the relational expression between the two; Solar radiation prediction and real-time correction then are the instantaneous intensities of solar radiation in section, real-time accurate Calculation exoatmosphere, with result of calculation substitution relational expression, tentatively obtain terrestrial surface radiation intensity, and utilize the terrestrial surface radiation Monitoring Data over the ground the radiance predicted value proofread and correct in real time; Photovoltaic plant power prediction and real-time correction then are with surface solar radiation predicted value input photovoltaic plant power prediction model, tentatively obtain photovoltaic power station power generation power.Utilize photovoltaic plant realtime power Monitoring Data that the result is proofreaied and correct in real time, and then predict following 0-4 hour photovoltaic power station power generation power.
1. radiation relational expression is set up
Step1: compile near the terrestrial surface radiation monitoring station data of future position, and carry out quality control and remove various pseudo-data, keep reasonable data;
Step2: by the instantaneous intensity of solar radiation in the nearest historical day section, exoatmosphere of astronomical formula accurate Calculation; In conjunction with the historical radiation data of automatic monitor station on the same day, set up relational expression between the two by mathematical method;
2. solar radiation prediction
Step1: the instantaneous intensity of solar radiation in the section, exoatmosphere of the point of accurate Calculation forecast in real time, substitution radiation relational expression tentatively obtains terrestrial surface radiation prediction of strength value;
Step2: by the real-time Monitoring Data of terrestrial surface radiation over the ground the radiance predicted value proofread and correct in real time;
3. photovoltaic plant power prediction
Step1: the relational expression between the historical power data of statistical computation photovoltaic plant and the historical radiation data of automatic monitor station on the same day, set up the opto-electronic conversion model, realize the conversion between the photoelectric power;
Step2: with surface solar radiation prediction of strength value input photovoltaic plant power prediction model, prediction obtains following 0-4 hour photovoltaic power station power generation power.
Step3: by photovoltaic plant realtime power Monitoring Data photovoltaic plant power prediction value is proofreaied and correct in real time, and then accurately predict following 0-4 hour photovoltaic power station power generation power.
Claims (1)
1. based on the power forecasting procedure of ultrashort phase of clear sky photovoltaic of real-time radiation acquisition technique, it is characterized in that may further comprise the steps:
1) the historical power data to the historical radiation data of automatic monitor station, photovoltaic plant screens analysis, weeds out irrational data;
2) calculate the instantaneous intensity of solar radiation in historical day section, exoatmosphere recently,, set up the relational expression between the two in conjunction with the historical radiation data of automatic monitor station on the same day;
3) the instantaneous intensity of solar radiation in the section, exoatmosphere of the point of accurate Calculation forecast in real time, the substitution relational expression tentatively obtains terrestrial surface radiation intensity;
4) utilize the real-time Monitoring Data of terrestrial surface radiation that the terrestrial surface radiation intensity that calculates is proofreaied and correct in real time, and then predict following 0-4 hour surface solar radiation intensity comparatively exactly;
5) relational expression between the historical power data of statistical computation photovoltaic plant and the historical radiation data of automatic monitor station on the same day is set up the opto-electronic conversion model;
6) with surface solar radiation prediction of strength value input opto-electronic conversion model, tentatively obtain following 0-4 hour photovoltaic power station power generation power;
7) utilize photovoltaic plant realtime power Monitoring Data that photovoltaic power station power generation power prediction value is proofreaied and correct in real time, and then predict following 0-4 hour photovoltaic power station power generation power comparatively exactly.
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| CN102722760A (en) * | 2012-05-28 | 2012-10-10 | 中国电力科学研究院 | Regional power prediction method for photovoltaic power station group |
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| CN103337989A (en) * | 2013-03-04 | 2013-10-02 | 中国电力科学研究院 | Maximum power output forecasting method based on clearance model for photovoltaic plant |
| CN104627348A (en) * | 2015-02-27 | 2015-05-20 | 上海海事大学 | Method for realtime prediction and dynamic distribution of regenerated energy of solar airship |
| CN106251023A (en) * | 2016-08-05 | 2016-12-21 | 浙江大学 | A kind of photovoltaic power short term prediction method being applicable to small sample |
| CN112989632A (en) * | 2021-04-20 | 2021-06-18 | 中国气象局公共气象服务中心(国家预警信息发布中心) | Solar energy resource short-term forecasting method based on satellite radiation product |
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| CN102722760A (en) * | 2012-05-28 | 2012-10-10 | 中国电力科学研究院 | Regional power prediction method for photovoltaic power station group |
| CN103337989A (en) * | 2013-03-04 | 2013-10-02 | 中国电力科学研究院 | Maximum power output forecasting method based on clearance model for photovoltaic plant |
| CN103337989B (en) * | 2013-03-04 | 2015-07-08 | 国家电网公司 | Maximum power output forecasting method based on clearance model for photovoltaic plant |
| CN103208029A (en) * | 2013-03-11 | 2013-07-17 | 中国电力科学研究院 | Super-short-term power prediction method based on clearance model for photovoltaic power station |
| CN103208029B (en) * | 2013-03-11 | 2016-08-03 | 中国电力科学研究院 | Photovoltaic plant ultra-short term power forecasting method based on clearance model |
| CN104627348A (en) * | 2015-02-27 | 2015-05-20 | 上海海事大学 | Method for realtime prediction and dynamic distribution of regenerated energy of solar airship |
| CN106251023A (en) * | 2016-08-05 | 2016-12-21 | 浙江大学 | A kind of photovoltaic power short term prediction method being applicable to small sample |
| CN112989632A (en) * | 2021-04-20 | 2021-06-18 | 中国气象局公共气象服务中心(国家预警信息发布中心) | Solar energy resource short-term forecasting method based on satellite radiation product |
| CN112989632B (en) * | 2021-04-20 | 2021-08-24 | 中国气象局公共气象服务中心(国家预警信息发布中心) | Solar energy resource short-term forecasting method based on satellite radiation product |
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