CN104978614A - Photovoltaic power generation forecasting system - Google Patents
Photovoltaic power generation forecasting system Download PDFInfo
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- CN104978614A CN104978614A CN201510459135.9A CN201510459135A CN104978614A CN 104978614 A CN104978614 A CN 104978614A CN 201510459135 A CN201510459135 A CN 201510459135A CN 104978614 A CN104978614 A CN 104978614A
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
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- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
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Abstract
The invention discloses a photovoltaic power generation forecasting system which comprises the components of a photovoltaic power terminal, a photovoltaic power information acquiring module, a weather forecasting module, a weather forecasting analyzing module, a weather station actually measured meteorological data module, a data acquiring platform, a photovoltaic power generation output forecasting module, a forecasting database, an error statistics module and a man-machine interface. The photovoltaic power terminal, the photovoltaic power information acquiring module and the weather forecasting module are successively connected. The weather forecasting module, the weather forecasting analyzing module and the forecasting database are successively connected. The weather station actually measured meteorological data module, the data acquiring platform and the forecasting database are successively connected. The data acquiring platform is connected with the photovoltaic power generation output forecasting module. The forecasting database is connected with the photovoltaic power generation output forecasting module, the error statistics module and the man-machine interface. The error statistics module is connected with the man-machine interface. The photovoltaic power generation forecasting system can realize ultra-short-period photovoltaic power forecasting and short-period photovoltaic power forecasting.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of photovoltaic generation prognoses system.
Background technology
From the development of the current distributed photovoltaic energy resource system of China, the research of distributed photovoltaic energy resource system is also in initial stage.But distributed photovoltaic energy resource system also has application in China, establish the distributed energy resource system of solar electrical energy generation in some backcountry.The application of current China distributed energy resource system, mainly with internal combustion engine drive electrical generators, for emergency condition and spare condition, all in all, develops relatively backward.But there is huge distributed energy resource system development potentiality in China, along with economic development, improving constantly of living standards of the people, will become the major impetus of distribution in China formula energy resource system development with the continuous growth of energy demand.Particularly China implementing strategy to develop western regions, " application for distributed energy resource system is provided huge market by West-east Gas engineering and Urbanization Construction.
At present, the photovoltaic plant that China has been incorporated into the power networks scale of totally installing is less, therefore not yet causes serious negative effect to electricity net safety stable, the power grid accident relevant to photovoltaic generation does not occur yet.But in some areas, also there is the power quality problems such as some harmonic waves.If but the existing electrical network of a large amount of distributed power source generating access, then may bring many-sided impact and impact.Current China photovoltaic generation mainly comprises " extensive concentrating is developed; long-distance sand transport " and " distributed development; on-site elimination " two kinds of forms, along with the continuous growth of distributed power source proportion in electric power supply, himself be different from the generating feature of normal power supplies, make the research of photovoltaic generation prognoses system more urgent.
Summary of the invention
The object of the invention is the defect overcoming prior art, a kind of photovoltaic generation prognoses system is provided, the photovoltaic power prediction of ultra-short term and short-term can be realized.
The technical scheme realizing above-mentioned purpose is: a kind of photovoltaic generation prognoses system, comprise photo-voltaic power supply terminal, photovoltaic power information acquisition module, weather forecast module, weather forecast parsing module, weather station actual measurement weather data module, data acquisition platform, photovoltaic generation exert oneself prediction module, forecast database, error statistics module and man-machine interface, wherein:
Described photo-voltaic power supply terminal, described photovoltaic power information acquisition module are connected successively with described forecast database;
Described weather forecast module, weather forecast parsing module are connected successively with described forecast database;
Described weather station actual measurement weather data module, described data acquisition platform are connected successively with described forecast database;
Described data acquisition platform and described photovoltaic generation prediction module of exerting oneself is connected;
Exert oneself with described photovoltaic generation respectively prediction module, error statistics module of described forecast database is connected with man-machine interface;
Described error statistics module is connected with man-machine interface.
Above-mentioned a kind of photovoltaic generation prognoses system, wherein:
Described photovoltaic power information acquisition module gathers realtime power information and the terminal operating condition information of described photo-voltaic power supply terminal, and realtime power information and terminal operating condition information are sent to described forecast database;
Described weather forecast parsing module resolves the temperature forecast information of described weather forecast module, wind speed and direction forecast information and irradiance forecast information, and temperature forecast information, wind speed and direction forecast information and irradiance forecast information are sent to described forecast database;
Described forecast database receives described temperature forecast information, wind speed and direction forecast information and irradiance forecast information, and described temperature forecast information, wind speed and direction forecast information and irradiance forecast information is sent to described photovoltaic generation to exert oneself prediction module;
The temperature real measured data detected, wind speed and direction real measured data and irradiance real measured data are sent to described data acquisition platform by described weather station actual measurement weather data module;
Described data acquisition platform receives described temperature real measured data, wind speed and direction real measured data and irradiance real measured data, and described temperature real measured data, wind speed and direction real measured data and irradiance real measured data are sent to described forecast database, described temperature real measured data, wind speed and direction real measured data and irradiance real measured data also send to described photovoltaic generation to exert oneself prediction module by described data acquisition platform;
Described photovoltaic generation prediction module of exerting oneself receives from the described temperature forecast information of described forecast database, wind speed and direction forecast information and irradiance forecast information and the temperature real measured data from described data acquisition platform, wind speed and direction real measured data and irradiance real measured data, and according to these information prediction ultra-short term photovoltaic power information and short-term photovoltaic power information, acquisition ultra-short term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome and short-term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome, ultra-short term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome and short-term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome and sends to described forecast database by described photovoltaic generation prediction module of exerting oneself,
Described forecast database is by from the realtime power information of described photovoltaic power information acquisition module and terminal operating condition information, from the temperature forecast information of described weather forecast parsing module, wind speed and direction forecast information and irradiance forecast information, from the temperature real measured data of described data acquisition platform, wind speed and direction real measured data and irradiance real measured data and to predict the outcome and short-term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome and sends to described man-machine interface respectively from the exert oneself ultra-short term photovoltaic power of prediction module of described photovoltaic generation,
Described forecast database to predict the outcome from the realtime power information of described photovoltaic power information acquisition module and terminal operating condition information and from the exert oneself ultra-short term photovoltaic power of prediction module of described photovoltaic generation and short-term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome and sends to described error statistics module respectively;
Described error statistics module add up described realtime power information and described ultra-short term photovoltaic power predict the outcome between error, and add up described realtime power information and described short-term photovoltaic power predict the outcome between error, and error statistics result is sent to described man-machine interface.
Above-mentioned a kind of photovoltaic generation prognoses system, wherein:
Described ultra-short term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome and provides following 0-4 hour, and time resolution is the photovoltaic power generation power prediction result of 15 minutes, and ultra-short term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome to roll for every 15 minutes and transmits messages once;
Described short-term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome the photovoltaic power generation power prediction result provided between next day 9 .-18, and short-term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome and transmits messages once every day.
Photovoltaic generation prognoses system of the present invention, beneficial effect is compared with prior art: be a multimode cooperation platform setting up in a distributed computing environment, can realize the photovoltaic power generation power prediction of ultra-short term and short-term.The prediction of ultra-short term photovoltaic power provides following 0-4 hour, and time resolution is 15 minutes predicting the outcome, and within every 15 minutes, transmits messages once.Short-term forecasting provides the photovoltaic power generation power prediction result between next day 9 .-18, and the every day that predicts the outcome transmits messages once.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the structured flowchart of photovoltaic generation prognoses system of the present invention.
Embodiment
In order to make those skilled in the art can understand technical scheme of the present invention better, below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, its embodiment is described in detail:
Embodiments of the invention: refer to Fig. 1, a kind of photovoltaic generation prognoses system, comprises photo-voltaic power supply terminal 1, photovoltaic power information acquisition module 2, weather forecast module 3, weather forecast parsing module 4, weather station actual measurement weather data module 5, data acquisition platform 6, photovoltaic generation exerts oneself prediction module 7, forecast database 8, error statistics module 9 and man-machine interface 10.
Photo-voltaic power supply terminal 1, photovoltaic power information acquisition module 2 are connected successively with forecast database 8; Weather forecast module 3, weather forecast parsing module 4 are connected successively with forecast database 8; Weather station actual measurement weather data module 5, data acquisition platform 6 are connected successively with forecast database 8; Data acquisition platform 6 and photovoltaic generation prediction module 7 of exerting oneself is connected; Exert oneself with photovoltaic generation respectively prediction module 7, error statistics module 9 of forecast database 8 is connected with man-machine interface 10; Error statistics module 9 is connected with man-machine interface 10.
A kind of photovoltaic generation prognoses system of the present invention, principle of work is:
Photovoltaic power information acquisition module 2 gathers realtime power information and the terminal operating condition information of photo-voltaic power supply terminal 1, and realtime power information and terminal operating condition information are sent to forecast database 8; Weather forecast parsing module 4 resolves the temperature forecast information of weather forecast module 3, wind speed and direction forecast information and irradiance forecast information, and temperature forecast information, wind speed and direction forecast information and irradiance forecast information are sent to forecast database 8; Forecast database 8 receives temperature forecast information, wind speed and direction forecast information and irradiance forecast information, and temperature forecast information, wind speed and direction forecast information and irradiance forecast information is sent to photovoltaic generation to exert oneself prediction module 7; The temperature real measured data detected, wind speed and direction real measured data and irradiance real measured data are sent to data acquisition platform 6 by weather station actual measurement weather data module 5; Data acquisition platform 6 receives temperature real measured data, wind speed and direction real measured data and irradiance real measured data, and temperature real measured data, wind speed and direction real measured data and irradiance real measured data are sent to forecast database 8, temperature real measured data, wind speed and direction real measured data and irradiance real measured data also send to photovoltaic generation to exert oneself prediction module 7 by data acquisition platform 6.
Photovoltaic generation prediction module 7 of exerting oneself receives temperature forecast information from forecast database 8, wind speed and direction forecast information and irradiance forecast information and the temperature real measured data from data acquisition platform 6, wind speed and direction real measured data and irradiance real measured data, and according to these information prediction ultra-short term photovoltaic power information and short-term photovoltaic power information, acquisition ultra-short term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome and short-term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome, ultra-short term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome and short-term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome and sends to forecast database 8 by photovoltaic generation prediction module 7 of exerting oneself.Ultra-short term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome provides following 0-4 hour, and time resolution is the photovoltaic power generation power prediction result of 15 minutes, and ultra-short term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome to roll for every 15 minutes and transmits messages once; Short-term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome the photovoltaic power generation power prediction result provided between next day 9 .-18, and short-term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome and transmits messages once every day.
Forecast database 8 is by from the realtime power information of photovoltaic power information acquisition module 2 and terminal operating condition information, from the temperature forecast information of weather forecast parsing module 4, wind speed and direction forecast information and irradiance forecast information, from the temperature real measured data of data acquisition platform 6, wind speed and direction real measured data and irradiance real measured data and to predict the outcome and short-term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome and sends to man-machine interface 10 respectively from the exert oneself ultra-short term photovoltaic power of prediction module 7 of photovoltaic generation.
Forecast database 8 to predict the outcome from the realtime power information of photovoltaic power information acquisition module 2 and terminal operating condition information and from the exert oneself ultra-short term photovoltaic power of prediction module 7 of photovoltaic generation and short-term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome and sends to error statistics module 9 respectively; Error statistics module 9 add up realtime power information and ultra-short term photovoltaic power predict the outcome between error, and add up realtime power information and short-term photovoltaic power predict the outcome between error, and error statistics result is sent to man-machine interface 10.
Photovoltaic generation prognoses system of the present invention, is a multimode cooperation platform setting up in a distributed computing environment, can realizes the photovoltaic power generation power prediction of ultra-short term and short-term.The prediction of ultra-short term photovoltaic power provides following 0-4 hour, and time resolution is 15 minutes predicting the outcome, and within every 15 minutes, transmits messages once.Short-term forecasting provides the photovoltaic power generation power prediction result between next day 9 .-18, and the every day that predicts the outcome transmits messages once.
Those of ordinary skill in the art will be appreciated that, above embodiment is only used to the present invention is described, and be not used as limitation of the invention, as long as in spirit of the present invention, all will drop in Claims scope of the present invention the change of the above embodiment, modification.
Claims (3)
1. a photovoltaic generation prognoses system, it is characterized in that, comprise photo-voltaic power supply terminal, photovoltaic power information acquisition module, weather forecast module, weather forecast parsing module, weather station actual measurement weather data module, data acquisition platform, photovoltaic generation exert oneself prediction module, forecast database, error statistics module and man-machine interface, wherein:
Described photo-voltaic power supply terminal, described photovoltaic power information acquisition module are connected successively with described forecast database;
Described weather forecast module, weather forecast parsing module are connected successively with described forecast database;
Described weather station actual measurement weather data module, described data acquisition platform are connected successively with described forecast database;
Described data acquisition platform and described photovoltaic generation prediction module of exerting oneself is connected;
Exert oneself with described photovoltaic generation respectively prediction module, error statistics module of described forecast database is connected with man-machine interface;
Described error statistics module is connected with man-machine interface.
2. a kind of photovoltaic generation prognoses system according to claim 1, is characterized in that,
Described photovoltaic power information acquisition module gathers realtime power information and the terminal operating condition information of described photo-voltaic power supply terminal, and realtime power information and terminal operating condition information are sent to described forecast database;
Described weather forecast parsing module resolves the temperature forecast information of described weather forecast module, wind speed and direction forecast information and irradiance forecast information, and temperature forecast information, wind speed and direction forecast information and irradiance forecast information are sent to described forecast database;
Described forecast database receives described temperature forecast information, wind speed and direction forecast information and irradiance forecast information, and described temperature forecast information, wind speed and direction forecast information and irradiance forecast information is sent to described photovoltaic generation to exert oneself prediction module;
The temperature real measured data detected, wind speed and direction real measured data and irradiance real measured data are sent to described data acquisition platform by described weather station actual measurement weather data module;
Described data acquisition platform receives from described temperature real measured data, wind speed and direction real measured data and irradiance real measured data, and described temperature real measured data, wind speed and direction real measured data and irradiance real measured data are sent to described forecast database, described temperature real measured data, wind speed and direction real measured data and irradiance real measured data also send to described photovoltaic generation to exert oneself prediction module by described data acquisition platform;
Described photovoltaic generation prediction module of exerting oneself receives from the described temperature forecast information of described forecast database, wind speed and direction forecast information and irradiance forecast information and the temperature real measured data from described data acquisition platform, wind speed and direction real measured data and irradiance real measured data, and according to these information prediction ultra-short term photovoltaic power information and short-term photovoltaic power information, acquisition ultra-short term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome and short-term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome, ultra-short term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome and short-term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome and sends to described forecast database by described photovoltaic generation prediction module of exerting oneself,
Described forecast database is by from the realtime power information of described photovoltaic power information acquisition module and terminal operating condition information, from the temperature forecast information of described weather forecast parsing module, wind speed and direction forecast information and irradiance forecast information, from the temperature real measured data of described data acquisition platform, wind speed and direction real measured data and irradiance real measured data and to predict the outcome and short-term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome and sends to described man-machine interface respectively from the exert oneself ultra-short term photovoltaic power of prediction module of described photovoltaic generation,
Described forecast database to predict the outcome from the realtime power information of described photovoltaic power information acquisition module and terminal operating condition information and from the exert oneself ultra-short term photovoltaic power of prediction module of described photovoltaic generation and short-term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome and sends to described error statistics module respectively;
Described error statistics module add up described realtime power information and described ultra-short term photovoltaic power predict the outcome between error, and add up described realtime power information and described short-term photovoltaic power predict the outcome between error, and error statistics result is sent to described man-machine interface.
3. a kind of photovoltaic generation prognoses system according to claim 2, is characterized in that,
Described ultra-short term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome and provides following 0-4 hour, and time resolution is the photovoltaic power generation power prediction result of 15 minutes, and ultra-short term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome to roll for every 15 minutes and transmits messages once;
Described short-term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome the photovoltaic power generation power prediction result provided between next day 9 .-18, and short-term photovoltaic power predicts the outcome and transmits messages once every day.
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108256665A (en) * | 2017-12-01 | 2018-07-06 | 武汉华信联创技术工程有限公司 | A kind of new energy power station meteorology integrated service system and method |
| CN110070226A (en) * | 2019-04-24 | 2019-07-30 | 河海大学 | Photovoltaic power prediction technique and system based on convolutional neural networks and meta learning |
| WO2021043180A1 (en) * | 2019-09-02 | 2021-03-11 | 山东大学 | Regional short-term energy power prediction method and system that take weather into consideration |
Citations (1)
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| CN102545707A (en) * | 2012-01-11 | 2012-07-04 | 云南电力试验研究院（集团）有限公司电力研究院 | Power generation power forecasting method and system by taking power generation units as basic prediction units |
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Patent Citations (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN102545707A (en) * | 2012-01-11 | 2012-07-04 | 云南电力试验研究院（集团）有限公司电力研究院 | Power generation power forecasting method and system by taking power generation units as basic prediction units |
Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108256665A (en) * | 2017-12-01 | 2018-07-06 | 武汉华信联创技术工程有限公司 | A kind of new energy power station meteorology integrated service system and method |
| CN110070226A (en) * | 2019-04-24 | 2019-07-30 | 河海大学 | Photovoltaic power prediction technique and system based on convolutional neural networks and meta learning |
| CN110070226B (en) * | 2019-04-24 | 2020-06-16 | 河海大学 | Photovoltaic power prediction method and system based on convolutional neural network and meta-learning |
| WO2021043180A1 (en) * | 2019-09-02 | 2021-03-11 | 山东大学 | Regional short-term energy power prediction method and system that take weather into consideration |
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Application publication date: 20151014 |