CN104616212B - relay protection system reliability analysis method and system - Google Patents
relay protection system reliability analysis method and system Download PDFInfo
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- CN104616212B CN104616212B CN201510064696.9A CN201510064696A CN104616212B CN 104616212 B CN104616212 B CN 104616212B CN 201510064696 A CN201510064696 A CN 201510064696A CN 104616212 B CN104616212 B CN 104616212B
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Abstract
The invention provides a relay protection system reliability analysis method and system. The relay protection system reliability analysis method comprises the steps of determining reference objects and reference indexes corresponding to the reference objects in a relay protection system, adopting a Delphi method to calculate weight values of all reference indexes in the relay protection system, respectively obtaining data of the reference indexes in the relay protection system within preset time, adopting a rank sum comprehensive analysis method to comprehensively analyze the data of the reference indexes and the weight values of the reference indexes, obtaining reliability change tendency of the relay protection system within preset time. In the whole process, the rank sum comprehensive analysis method is adopted to conduct analysis on the reliability of the relay protection system, the rank sum comprehensive analysis method can effectively and comprehensively consider hardware, software and persons to obtain the change tendency with time of the reliability of the relay protection system within a time period, accordingly the safety and reliability of the relay protection system are well mastered, and normal and safety operation of an electric power and power grid system is ensured.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to electric power network technical field, more particularly to relay protection system analysis method for reliability be
System.
Background technology
It is in terms of protection reliability assessment modeling and index solution, system-level similar to Unit Level is adopted thinking, mainly
There is two big class of analytic method and simulation method.
The structure main according to system of analytic method, the function of system and element and logical relation between the two, set up
Reliable probability model, by the accurate solving model of the processes such as recursion or iteration, so that calculate the reliability index of system.It is excellent
Point is that have clearly physical concept, high-precision mathematical model.Have the disadvantage that system scale increase amount of calculation also can increase therewith.
And simulation method is the selection and estimation by sampling probability distribution to carry out state, it is to obtain reliability using statistical method
Property index, has Monte Carlo methods etc..The characteristics of simulation method has comparison directly perceived, its computational accuracy are tight with the time of calculating
It is related.Widely used mainly analytic method, such as Markov model method, Fault Tree, Go methods in protection reliability assessment at present
Deng.
But all there is an obvious defect in existing analysis method for reliability, existing analysis method for reliability reflection
It is the long-term average confidence level of relay protection system, it is difficult to accurately and efficiently reflect the reliability of relay protection system with the time
Change, affect electric power network system normal, safe operation.
The content of the invention
Based on this, it is necessary to for existing relay protection system analysis method for reliability be difficult to accurately and efficiently to reflect after
The reliability of electric protection system over time, affects the normal of electric power network system, the problem of safe operation, there is provided a kind of
It is capable of the accurate and effective reliability for reflecting relay protection system relay protection system analysis method for reliability over time
With system, it is ensured that normal, the safe operation of electric power network system.
A kind of relay protection system analysis method for reliability, including step：
Traversal relay protection system, references object reference corresponding with each references object in determining relay protection system refer to
Mark；
The weighted value of each reference index in relay protection system is calculated using Delphi methods；
The data of each reference index in relay protection system in Preset Time are obtained respectively；
Using sum of ranks than analysis by synthesis method, in comprehensive analysis Preset Time in relay protection system each reference index number
According to the weighted value with each reference index in relay protection system；
Obtain the trend of reliability change in the relay protection system Preset Time.
A kind of relay protection system reliability analysis system, including：
References object and reference index determining module, for traveling through relay protection system, join in determining relay protection system
Examine object and the corresponding reference index of each references object；
Weight module, for calculating the weighted value of each reference index in relay protection system using Delphi methods；
Acquisition module, for obtaining the data of each reference index in relay protection system in Preset Time respectively；
Comprehensive analysis module, for using sum of ranks than analysis by synthesis method, relay protection system in comprehensive analysis Preset Time
In each reference index data and the weighted value of each reference index in relay protection system；
Trend analysiss module, for obtaining the trend of reliability change in the relay protection system Preset Time.
Relay protection system analysis method for reliability of the present invention and system, determine in relay protection system references object and every
The corresponding reference index of individual references object, calculates the weighted value of each reference index in relay protection system using Delphi methods,
The data of each reference index in relay protection system in Preset Time are obtained respectively, it is using sum of ranks than analysis by synthesis method, comprehensive
The data of each reference index and the weighted value of each reference index is analyzed, obtaining can in the relay protection system Preset Time
By the trend of property change.In whole process, relay protection system reliability is analyzed than comprehensive evaluation using sum of ranks, order
With effectively each index comprehensive of hardware, software, personnel can be considered than comprehensive evaluation, draw within a period of time after
The time dependent trend of reliability of electric protection system, so that preferably grasp safety and the reliability of relay protection system
Property, it is ensured that normal, the safe operation of electric power network system.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is relay protection system hardware architecture diagram；
Fig. 2 is the schematic flow sheet of the one of embodiment of relay protection system analysis method for reliability of the present invention；
Fig. 3 is the structural representation of the one of embodiment of relay protection system reliability analysis system of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
In order that the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention become more apparent, it is below according to drawings and Examples, right
The present invention is further elaborated.It should be appreciated that described herein be embodied as only to explain the present invention, not
Limit the present invention.
Conventional Reliability Evaluation Model is the long-term average confidence level of reflection protective relaying device mostly, it is difficult to effectively anti-
Reflect the reliability of relay protection system over time.Sum of ranks can effectively by hardware, software, personnel than comprehensive evaluation
Each index comprehensive consider, finally draw the time dependent trend of reliability of the relay protection system within a period of time,
Each stage integrality of protection system in operation can more intuitively be grasped.Other analysis method for reliability, such as Ma Er
Section's husband's state space method, Fault Tree, GO methods etc., it is also possible to by obtaining the reliability of different time respectively, and then obtain guarantor
Reliability variation tendency of the protecting system within a period of time.But Markov state space law is related to the calculating of matrix, meter
Calculation amount is big, and is not easy to promote；The process of Fault Tree and the modeling of GO methods is more complicated, also has certain limitation.And sum of ranks
Do not have these to limit than overall merit rule, with strong points, it is simple easy to operate, convenient to promote.
Each index comprehensive of hardware, software, personnel effectively can be considered than comprehensive evaluation, finally be drawn by sum of ranks
In the time dependent trend of reliability of a period of time interior relay protection system, relay protection system can be preferably grasped
Safety and reliability.In addition, sum of ranks is more with strong points than comprehensive evaluation, it is simple easy to operate, convenient to promote.Sum of ranks ratio
Comprehensive evaluation ultimate principle is, in a n row m column matrix, to be changed by order, obtains dimensionless statistic RSR (sum of ranks
Than), on this basis, with the concept and method of Parameter statistical analysis, the distribution of RSR is studied, with RSR values to evaluation object
Good and bad directly sequence or grading sorting, so that make overall merit to evaluation object.
As shown in Fig. 2 a kind of relay protection system analysis method for reliability, including step：
S100：Traversal relay protection system, in determining relay protection system, references object is corresponding with each references object
Reference index.
In general, relay protection system references object can include that relay protection system hardware, relay protection system are soft
Part and relay protection system personnel, in relay protection system, reference index is relay protection system hardware availability, relay guarantor
Protecting system software failure rate and relay protection system personnel's crash rate.
For relay protection system hardware availability, can be simulated by hardware failure model, relay protection system
The hardware of system each module composition as shown in Figure 1, whether normal work is related to the whole reliability protected to modules, and which is not
Normal work may cause malfunction or the tripping protected.As shown in figure 1, relay protection system body can typically be classified as 7
Functional module：1st, power supply module PSU；2nd, central processing module CPU；3rd, switching input module DI；4th, output switch parameter
Module DO；5th, Analog Data Acquistion Module AI；6th, external communication interface module CI；7th, human-computer conversation interface module MMI.Wherein
External communication interface module CI and human-machine interface module MMI and the module for realizing defencive function be it is weak contact or without contacting, its mistake
Effect will not cause tripping and malfunction.So the failure and fail-safe analysis of our five functional modules of consideration general.
In order to improve the reliability level of microcomputer protection system, can be using the higher protection element composition system of reliability
System, main means are to adopt fault-toleranr technique, when certain part in system breaks down, can be replaced by the part of redundancy
The part work of failure, to ensure that system completes the function of specifying within the time of regulation.If the life-span of each element obeys
Exponential, i.e.,Then the reliability of each module is respectively
RCPU'=1- (1-REMRCPU)2。
For relay protection system software failure rate is analyzed：Software failure hidden danger will be continuous in test and running
It is excluded, therefore, the trend that the reliability of software is improved；Software is due to the complexity of itself and drawing for software design mistake
Enter so that become not being suitable for representing the non-static existing of software reliability growth or decay etc based on the theory of static process
As.Therefore the crash rate of relay protection software is calculated using second failure-rate models.Use Logarithmic
Model of the exponential models as assessment software reliability, its crash rate is：
λ (t)=λ0e-θt
Wherein：λ0Primary failure rate
θ failures reduce rate coefficient
Add up the mistake for finding in t running softwares.
Software failure will cause microcomputer protecting device malfunction or tripping occur, due to software failure in practice cause it is micro-
The number of times of machine shielding failure is relatively fewer, it is believed that the probability that two kinds of situations of malfunction and tripping occur is identical, respectively accounts for software mistake
The 50% of effect.
Relay protection system personnel's crash rate：The cognitive process of people is that human brain reflects the characteristic of objective things and contacts, and
Disclose the mental activity of meaning of the things to people and the complexity of effect.Cognitive Reliability (HCR) model of people, abbreviation HCR models,
I.e. when human reriability is analyzed, based on cognitive psychology, dynamic cognitive process of the people under emergent scene is studied emphatically,
Including detecting, diagnose, the intentional behavior such as decision-making, probe into the error mechanism of people and set up model.Weibull distribution based on 2 parameters
Function, builds error-response probability λ of the operator in time tPModel is as follows：
λP=exp {-[(t/T1/2)/η]β}
In formula：T response times；
T1/2Personnel complete the Median Time used by a certain operation；
η, β can be drawn by related mathematical method, represents the yardstick and form factor of cognitive behavior model.
Relation between variable is η=1/ (ln2)1/βAnd T1/2=η/(ln2)1/β.As long as understanding to determine η, β by above formula, just
Personnel's crash rate can be obtained.Personnel's failure also leads to protection system and malfunction or tripping occurs, it is believed that both of these case occurs
Probability be identical.
S200：The weighted value of each reference index in relay protection system is calculated using Delphi methods.
Delphi methods (Delphi method) are also referred to as expert survey, are a kind of employing communication modes asking required solution respectively
Topic is individually sent in each expert's hands, consultation, is then reclaimed and is collected whole expertises, and sorts out comprehensive meaning
See.The consensus of opinion and forecasting problem are fed back to into expert again respectively subsequently, again consultation, each expert is according to consensus of opinion
Oneself original suggestion is changed, is then collected again.So repeatedly repeatedly, progressively obtain than the more consistent decision-making party for predicting the outcome
Method.Delphi method by the way of the suggestion that publishes anonymously, i.e., must not be discussed mutually between expert, not sent out according to the program of system
Raw lateral ties, can only be related with investigator, investigate the view asked a question to questionnaire by expert by many rounds, pass through
Seek the opinion of repeatedly, conclude, change, be finally aggregated into the basically identical view of expert, as the result of prediction.This method has wide
General representativeness, more reliably.
S300：The data of each reference index in relay protection system in Preset Time are obtained respectively.
Based on historical empirical data, industry standard data or expert's database data, relay protection system in Preset Time is obtained
The data of each reference index in system.
S400：Using sum of ranks than analysis by synthesis method, in comprehensive analysis Preset Time, in relay protection system, each reference refers to
The weighted value of each reference index in target data and relay protection system.
The data of each index of a period of time are processed than analysis by synthesis method using sum of ranks.Below will be using wherein one
In individual embodiment, the process of explanation step S400 is explained in detail.
Wherein in one embodiment, in the relay protection system, references object has n, and reference index has m, its
In, n and m is positive integer.Step S400 is specifically included：
N references object and m reference index are arranged in into the raw data table that n rows m is arranged, each reference index is compiled out each
The order of references object, wherein, profit evaluation model index compiles order from small to large, and cost type index compiles order, same achievement data from big to small
Identical person compiles average order, and the order matrix for obtaining is designated as R=(Rij)n×m；
According to formulaCalculate sum of ranks ratio, in formula, RSRiFor the sum of ranks ratio of i-th references object；
Reference index weighted value in the sum of ranks ratio and the relay protection system is integrated, weighting sum of ranks ratio is calculated, its meter
Calculating formula isWherein, WRSRiFor the weighting sum of ranks ratio of i-th references object, wjRefer to for j-th
Index weightses,
By sum of ranks ratio or the ascending arrangement of weighting sum of ranks ratio, each class frequency f is listedi, calculate each group cumulative frequency cfi,
Calculate cumulative frequency pi=cfi/ n, in each group, last cumulative frequency presses 1-1/ (4n) calculating, by percentage rate piBe converted to general
Rate unit Probiti, wherein, n includes the number of object, Probit for each groupiFor percentage rate piCorresponding NED
Plus 5；
With cumulative frequency cfiCorresponding probability unit ProbitiAnd sum of ranks ratio or weighting sum of ranks ratio are independent variable, are counted
Calculate linear regression equation；
Calculate corresponding sum of ranks ratio or weighting sum of ranks compared estimate value in relay protection system according to linear regression equation
References object carries out stepping or sequence.
S500：Obtain the trend of reliability change in the relay protection system Preset Time.
Relay protection system analysis method for reliability of the present invention, determines references object and each reference in relay protection system
The corresponding reference index of object, calculates the weighted value of each reference index in relay protection system using Delphi methods, obtains respectively
The data of each reference index in relay protection system in Preset Time are taken, using sum of ranks than analysis by synthesis method, comprehensive analysis is each
The data of individual reference index and the weighted value of each reference index, obtain reliability in the relay protection system Preset Time and become
The trend of change.In whole process, relay protection system reliability is analyzed than comprehensive evaluation using sum of ranks, sum of ranks is than comprehensive
Close assessment method effectively to consider each index comprehensive of hardware, software, personnel, draw the relay protection within a period of time
The time dependent trend of reliability of system, so that preferably grasp the safety and reliability of relay protection system, it is ensured that
Normal, the safe operation of electric power network system.
Wherein in one embodiment, the trend for obtaining reliability change in the relay protection system Preset Time
Specially：
Stepping or ordering scenario are carried out according to references object in relay protection system, the relay protection system is analyzed and is preset
The trend of reliability change in time.
After grading sorting, it is clear that learn in relay protection system that references object reliability within certain time period becomes
These Data Integrations learned are a complete time chain by change situation, and analyzing can in relay protection system Preset Time
By the trend of property change.
Wherein in one embodiment, the trend for obtaining reliability change in the relay protection system Preset Time
There is step afterwards：
According to the trend of reliability change in the relay protection system Preset Time, relay protection system reliability is entered
Row analysis.
In the trend for knowing reliability change in relay protection system Preset Time, we just can be in power system
Relay protection system carries out reliability in time analysis, it is ensured that power system security, normal operation.
Wherein in one embodiment, in the relay protection system, references object is relay protection system hardware, relay
Protection system software and relay protection system personnel, in the relay protection system, reference index can for relay protection system hardware
Expenditure, relay protection system software failure rate and relay protection system personnel's crash rate.
In order to further explain in detail technical scheme and its band of relay protection system analysis method for reliability of the present invention
The beneficial effect come, will carry out detailed explanation using a specific embodiment below.
With reference to element protection operation in power grids statistical result (《State Grid Corporation of China's relay protection dress in 2008
Put ruuning situation》), relevant reliability data is collected, each parameter value is as follows：
1) IC-components applied environment coefficient π in protection equipmente=2.5, device quality coefficient πQ=2.5, device into
Ripe coefficient is πL=1, voltage stress derating number πV=1.
2) each hardware module crash rate such as table 1 can be obtained according to MIL-HDBK-217E models, table 2, shown in table 3
Table 1CPU Module Fail rate models
Table 2DO Module Fail rate models
Table 3PSU Module Fail rate models
Table 4AI Module Fail rate models
Table 5DI Module Fail rate models
Software failure rate data, take λ0=120.0 × 10-6/ h, attenuation quotient θ=0.126；Personnel's crash rate data, take η
=1.204, β=1.973, t/T1/2=4.32.
The availability for drawing modules is：
Software failure rate is λ (t)=λ0e-θt=0.00012e-0.126t, personnel's crash rate is taken as a constant, i.e. λPeople=
3.978×10-6/h.The calculating time period is taken for [0,5000d], time interval is 500d, calculates each time point respectively
The availability and software failure rate of modules, and with sum of ranks than comprehensive evaluation draw protection system in this period can
By property variation tendency.
In table 6, table 7 and table 8, X1 be software failure rate, X2 be OC availabilities, X3 be AI availabilities, X4 be PSU can use
Degree, X5 are D availabilities, and X6 is CPU availabilities, and X7 is EM availabilities, and X8 is personnel's crash rate.Here X1 and X8 refers to for low excellent type
Mark, remaining is high excellent type index.
6 statistical indicator of table and weight coefficient
Table 7 compiles sum of ranks weighting sum of ranks ratio
8 cumulative frequency of table, probability unit and weighting sum of ranks compared estimate value
Drawn by simulation result above, within the time period [0,5000d], protection system reliability is over time
Prolongation and reduce, it is, in general, that this meet reality production in protection system reliability change.
As shown in figure 3, a kind of relay protection system reliability analysis system, including：
References object and reference index determining module 100, for traveling through relay protection system, in determining relay protection system
References object and the corresponding reference index of each references object；
Weight module 200, for calculating the weighted value of each reference index in relay protection system using Delphi methods；
Acquisition module 300, for obtaining the data of each reference index in relay protection system in Preset Time respectively；
Comprehensive analysis module 400, for using sum of ranks than analysis by synthesis method, relay protection system in comprehensive analysis Preset Time
In system in the data and relay protection system of each reference index each reference index weighted value；
Trend analysiss module 500, for obtaining the trend of reliability change in the relay protection system Preset Time.
Relay protection system reliability analysis system of the present invention, references object and reference index determining module 100 determine after
References object and the corresponding reference index of each references object in electric protection system, weight module 200 are calculated using Delphi methods
The weighted value of each reference index in relay protection system, acquisition module 300 obtain relay protection system in Preset Time respectively
In each reference index data, comprehensive analysis module 400 using sum of ranks than analysis by synthesis method, comprehensive analysis each reference index
Data and each reference index weighted value, trend analysiss module 500 is obtained can in the relay protection system Preset Time
By the trend of property change.In whole process, relay protection system reliability is analyzed than comprehensive evaluation using sum of ranks, order
With effectively each index comprehensive of hardware, software, personnel can be considered than comprehensive evaluation, draw within a period of time after
The time dependent trend of reliability of electric protection system, so that preferably grasp safety and the reliability of relay protection system
Property, it is ensured that normal, the safe operation of electric power network system.
Wherein in one embodiment, in the relay protection system, references object has n, and reference index has m, its
In, n and m is positive integer；
The comprehensive analysis module 400 is specifically included：
Order unit is compiled, for n references object and m reference index are arranged in the raw data table that n rows m is arranged, is compiled out
The order of each references object of each reference index, wherein, profit evaluation model index compiles order from small to large, and cost type index is compiled from big to small
Order, the identical person of same achievement data compile average order, and the order matrix for obtaining is designated as R=(Rij)n×m；
Sum of ranks than computing unit, for according to formulaCalculate sum of ranks ratio, in formula, RSRiFor i-th
The sum of ranks ratio of references object；
Sum of ranks is weighted than computing unit, for integrating reference index weight in the sum of ranks ratio and the relay protection system
Value, calculates weighting sum of ranks ratio, and its computing formula isWherein, WRSRiAdding for i-th references object
Power sum of ranks ratio, wjFor j-th reference index weighted value,
Probability calculation unit, for by sum of ranks ratio or the ascending arrangement of weighting sum of ranks ratio, listing each class frequency fi, meter
Calculate each group cumulative frequency cfi, calculate cumulative frequency pi=cfi/ n, in each group, last cumulative frequency presses 1-1/ (4n) calculating,
By percentage rate piBe converted to probability unit Probiti, wherein, n includes the number of object, Probit for each groupiFor percentage rate pi
Corresponding NED adds 5；
Linear regression equation computing unit, for cumulative frequency cfiCorresponding probability unit ProbitiAnd sum of ranks
Than or weighting sum of ranks ratio be independent variable, calculate linear regression equation；
Grading sorting unit, for calculating corresponding sum of ranks ratio or weighting sum of ranks compared estimate value according to linear regression equation
Stepping or sequence are carried out to references object in relay protection system.
Wherein in one embodiment, the trend analysiss module 500 is specifically for referring to according in relay protection system
Object carries out stepping or ordering scenario, analyzes the trend of reliability change in the relay protection system Preset Time.
Wherein in one embodiment, the relay protection system reliability analysis system also includes：
Fail-safe analysis module is for the trend according to reliability change in the relay protection system Preset Time, right
Relay protection system reliability is analyzed.
Wherein in one embodiment, in the relay protection system, references object is relay protection system hardware, relay
Protection system software and relay protection system personnel, in the relay protection system, reference index can for relay protection system hardware
Expenditure, relay protection system software failure rate and relay protection system personnel's crash rate.
Embodiment described above only expresses the several embodiments of the present invention, and its description is more concrete and detailed, but and
Therefore the restriction to the scope of the claims of the present invention can not be interpreted as.It should be pointed out that for one of ordinary skill in the art
For, without departing from the inventive concept of the premise, some deformations and improvement can also be made, these belong to the guarantor of the present invention
Shield scope.Therefore, the protection domain of patent of the present invention should be defined by claims.
Claims (8)
1. a kind of relay protection system analysis method for reliability, it is characterised in that including step：
Traversal relay protection system, determines references object and the corresponding reference index of each references object in relay protection system；
The weighted value of each reference index in relay protection system is calculated using Delphi methods；
The data of each reference index in relay protection system in Preset Time are obtained respectively；
Using sum of ranks than analysis by synthesis method, in comprehensive analysis Preset Time in relay protection system the data of each reference index and
The weighted value of each reference index in relay protection system；
Obtain the trend of reliability change in the relay protection system Preset Time；
In the relay protection system, references object is relay protection system hardware, relay protection system software and relay protection system
System personnel, in the relay protection system, reference index is relay protection system hardware availability, the mistake of relay protection system software
Efficiency and relay protection system personnel's crash rate；
Described acquisition in Preset Time respectively is based on history Jing the step of the data of each reference index in relay protection system
Data, industry standard data or expert's database data is tested, each ginseng in the relay protection system in the acquisition Preset Time
The data of index are examined, wherein, the computing formula of the relay protection system software failure rate in the parameter index is λ (t)
=λ0e-θt, the λ0For primary failure rate, the θ is that failure reduces rate coefficient, and the t is the mistake of accumulative discovery in running software
By mistake.
2. relay protection system analysis method for reliability according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the relay protection system
In system, references object has n, and reference index has m, and wherein, n and m is positive integer, and the reference index includes that profit evaluation model refers to
Mark and cost type index；
The employing sum of ranks than analysis by synthesis method, in comprehensive analysis Preset Time in relay protection system each reference index number
Step is specifically included according to the weighted value with each reference index in relay protection system：
N references object and m reference index are arranged in into the raw data table that n rows m is arranged, each reference index are compiled out and is respectively referred to
The order of object, wherein, profit evaluation model index compiles order from small to large, and cost type index compiles order from big to small, and same achievement data is identical
Person compiles average order, and the order matrix for obtaining is designated as R=(Rij)n×m；
According to formulaCalculate sum of ranks ratio, in formula, RSRiFor the sum of ranks ratio of i-th references object；
Reference index weighted value in the sum of ranks ratio and the relay protection system is integrated, weighting sum of ranks ratio is calculated, which calculates public
Formula isWherein, WRSRiFor the weighting sum of ranks ratio of i-th references object, wjFor j-th reference index power
Weight values,
By sum of ranks ratio or the ascending arrangement of weighting sum of ranks ratio, each class frequency f is listedi, calculate each group cumulative frequency cfi, calculate
Cumulative frequency pi=cfi/ n, in each group, last cumulative frequency presses 1-1/ (4n) calculating, by percentage rate piBe converted to probability list
Position Probiti, wherein, n includes the number of object, Probit for each groupiFor percentage rate piCorresponding NED adds 5；
With cumulative frequency cfiCorresponding probability unit ProbitiAnd sum of ranks ratio or weighting sum of ranks ratio are independent variable, calculate straight
Line regression equation；
Calculate corresponding sum of ranks ratio or weighting sum of ranks compared estimate value to referring in relay protection system according to linear regression equation
Object carries out stepping or sequence.
3. relay protection system analysis method for reliability according to claim 2, it is characterised in that described in the acquisition after
In electric protection system Preset Time, the trend of reliability change is specially：
Stepping or ordering scenario are carried out according to references object in relay protection system, the relay protection system Preset Time is analyzed
The trend of interior reliability change.
4. relay protection system analysis method for reliability according to claim 1 and 2, it is characterised in that the acquisition institute
State in relay protection system Preset Time and also have step after the trend of reliability change：
According to the trend of reliability change in the relay protection system Preset Time, relay protection system reliability is carried out point
Analysis.
5. a kind of relay protection system reliability analysis system, it is characterised in that include：
References object and reference index determining module, for traveling through relay protection system, determine reference pair in relay protection system
As with the corresponding reference index of each references object；
Weight module, for calculating the weighted value of each reference index in relay protection system using Delphi methods；
Acquisition module, for obtaining the data of each reference index in relay protection system in Preset Time respectively；
Comprehensive analysis module, for using sum of ranks than analysis by synthesis method, it is each in relay protection system in comprehensive analysis Preset Time
The weighted value of each reference index in the data and relay protection system of individual reference index；
Trend analysiss module, for obtaining the trend of reliability change in the relay protection system Preset Time；
In the relay protection system, references object is relay protection system hardware, relay protection system software and relay protection system
System personnel, in the relay protection system, reference index is relay protection system hardware availability, the mistake of relay protection system software
Efficiency and relay protection system personnel's crash rate；
The acquisition module is described specifically for based on historical empirical data, industry standard data or expert's database data, obtaining
In Preset Time in the relay protection system each reference index data, wherein, the relay in the parameter index
The computing formula of protection system software failure rate is λ (t)=λ0e-θt, the λ0For primary failure rate, the θ is failure slip
Coefficient, the t are the accumulative mistake for finding in running software.
6. relay protection system reliability analysis system according to claim 5, it is characterised in that the relay protection system
In system, references object has n, and reference index has m, and wherein, n and m is positive integer, and the reference index includes that profit evaluation model refers to
Mark and cost type index；
The comprehensive analysis module is specifically included：
Order unit is compiled, for n references object and m reference index are arranged in the raw data table that n rows m is arranged, each is compiled out
The order of each references object of reference index, wherein, profit evaluation model index compiles order from small to large, and cost type index compiles order from big to small, together
The identical person of one achievement data compiles average order, and the order matrix for obtaining is designated as R=(Rij)n×m；
Sum of ranks than computing unit, for according to formulaCalculate sum of ranks ratio, in formula, RSRiRefer to for i-th
The sum of ranks ratio of object；
Sum of ranks is weighted than computing unit, for integrating reference index weighted value in the sum of ranks ratio and the relay protection system,
Weighting sum of ranks ratio is calculated, its computing formula isWherein, WRSRiFor the weighting order of the references object
With than wjFor j-th reference index weighted value,
Probability calculation unit, for by sum of ranks ratio or the ascending arrangement of weighting sum of ranks ratio, listing each class frequency fi, calculate each
Group cumulative frequency cfi, calculate cumulative frequency pi=cfi/ n, in each group, last cumulative frequency presses 1-1/ (4n) calculating, by hundred
Divide rate piBe converted to probability unit Probiti, wherein, n includes the number of object, Probit for each groupiFor percentage rate piCorrespondence
NED add 5；
Linear regression equation computing unit, for cumulative frequency cfiCorresponding probability unit ProbitiAnd sum of ranks ratio or
Weighting sum of ranks ratio is independent variable, calculates linear regression equation；
Grading sorting unit, for according to linear regression equation calculate corresponding sum of ranks ratio or weighting sum of ranks compared estimate value to after
In electric protection system, references object carries out stepping or sequence.
7. relay protection system reliability analysis system according to claim 6, it is characterised in that the trend analysiss mould
Block analyzes the relay protection system pre- specifically for carrying out stepping or ordering scenario according to references object in relay protection system
If the trend of reliability change in the time.
8. the relay protection system reliability analysis system according to claim 5 or 6, it is characterised in that also include：
Fail-safe analysis module, for the trend according to reliability change in the relay protection system Preset Time, to relay
Protection system reliability is analyzed.
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| CN104915777B (en) * | 2015-06-12 | 2018-11-02 | 北京交通大学 | Relay protection criterion method based on the analysis of dynamic trend degree |
| CN107464571B (en) * | 2016-06-06 | 2020-12-01 | 南京邮电大学 | Data quality assessment method, equipment and system |
| CN106059838B (en) * | 2016-07-29 | 2019-03-12 | 广东工业大学 | A kind of reliability of relay protection calculation method and device |
| CN108182511A (en) * | 2017-12-11 | 2018-06-19 | 上海电力学院 | It is a kind of based on Demand Side Response reserve value assessment method of the sum of ranks than method |
| CN108808672A (en) * | 2018-07-10 | 2018-11-13 | 国网安徽省电力有限公司 | A kind of protective device reliability on-line prediction method and system based on guarantor's letter system |
| CN110516960B (en) * | 2019-08-23 | 2023-03-14 | 国网河北省电力有限公司保定供电分公司 | Reliability index quantitative calculation method for substation relay protection equipment |
| CN111668802B (en) * | 2020-04-16 | 2022-09-09 | 中国电力科学研究院有限公司 | Method and system for determining redundancy number of relay protection device |
| CN112152184A (en) * | 2020-09-08 | 2020-12-29 | 华北电力大学 | Method for determining redundancy quantity of components of relay protection device |
| CN112630645A (en) * | 2020-12-15 | 2021-04-09 | 中国电力科学研究院有限公司 | Method and system for determining defect rate of relay protection equipment |
| CN115902451B (en) * | 2022-10-09 | 2023-09-15 | 国网安徽省电力有限公司滁州供电公司 | Relay protection monitoring system based on intelligent matching |
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