CN104616212A - Relay protection system reliability analysis method and system - Google Patents

Relay protection system reliability analysis method and system Download PDF

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CN104616212A
CN104616212A CN201510064696.9A CN201510064696A CN104616212A CN 104616212 A CN104616212 A CN 104616212A CN 201510064696 A CN201510064696 A CN 201510064696A CN 104616212 A CN104616212 A CN 104616212A
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protection system
relay protection
reliability
reference index
rank sum
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CN104616212B (en
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曾耿晖
黄明辉
陈志光
焦邵麟
张智锐
李一泉
王峰
周淑雄
徐延明
张志东
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Beijing Sifang Automation Co Ltd
Electric Power Dispatch Control Center of Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
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Beijing Sifang Automation Co Ltd
Electric Power Dispatch Control Center of Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention provides a relay protection system reliability analysis method and system. The relay protection system reliability analysis method comprises the steps of determining reference objects and reference indexes corresponding to the reference objects in a relay protection system, adopting a Delphi method to calculate weight values of all reference indexes in the relay protection system, respectively obtaining data of the reference indexes in the relay protection system within preset time, adopting a rank sum comprehensive analysis method to comprehensively analyze the data of the reference indexes and the weight values of the reference indexes, obtaining reliability change tendency of the relay protection system within preset time. In the whole process, the rank sum comprehensive analysis method is adopted to conduct analysis on the reliability of the relay protection system, the rank sum comprehensive analysis method can effectively and comprehensively consider hardware, software and persons to obtain the change tendency with time of the reliability of the relay protection system within a time period, accordingly the safety and reliability of the relay protection system are well mastered, and normal and safety operation of an electric power and power grid system is ensured.

Description

Relay protection system analysis method for reliability and system
Technical field
The present invention relates to electric power network technical field, particularly relate to relay protection system analysis method for reliability and system.
Background technology
In protection reliability assessment modeling and index solve, system-level similar to the thinking that Unit Level adopts, mainly contain analytical method and the large class of simulation two.
Analytical method mainly according to the function of the structure of system, system and element and logical relation between the two, is set up reliable probability model, by the process such as recursion or iteration Exact Solution model, thus is calculated the reliability index of system.Advantage has physical concept clearly, high-precision mathematical model.Shortcoming is that system scale increase calculated amount also can increase thereupon.And simulation is selection and estimation by carrying out state to probability distribution sampling, is utilize statistical method to obtain reliability index, has Monte Carlo method etc.Simulation has feature more intuitively, and its computational accuracy and computing time are closely related.The mainly analytical method extensively adopted in current protection reliability assessment, as Markov model method, Fault Tree, Go method etc.
But all there is an obvious defect in existing analysis method for reliability; what existing analysis method for reliability reflected is the long-term average confidence level of relay protection system; the reliability being difficult to reflect accurately and efficiently relay protection system over time, affects normal, the safe operation of electric power network system.
Summary of the invention
Based on this; be necessary to be difficult to reflect accurately and efficiently the reliability of relay protection system over time for existing relay protection system analysis method for reliability; affect the problem of normal, the safe operation of electric power network system; there is provided a kind of can the reliability relay protection system analysis method for reliability over time of accurate and effective reflection relay protection system and system, guarantee normal, the safe operation of electric power network system.
A kind of relay protection system analysis method for reliability, comprises step:
Traversal relay protection system, determines the reference index that in relay protection system, references object and each references object are corresponding;
Delphi method is adopted to calculate the weighted value of each reference index in relay protection system;
Obtain the data of each reference index in relay protection system in Preset Time respectively;
Adopt rank sum ratio analysis by synthesis method, comprehensive analyze each reference index in relay protection system in Preset Time data and relay protection system in the weighted value of each reference index;
Obtain the trend of reliability change in described relay protection system Preset Time.
A kind of relay protection system reliability analysis system, comprising:
References object and reference index determination module, for traveling through relay protection system, determine the reference index that in relay protection system, references object and each references object are corresponding;
Weight module, for the weighted value adopting Delphi method to calculate each reference index in relay protection system;
Acquisition module, for obtaining the data of each reference index in relay protection system in Preset Time respectively;
Comprehensive analysis module, for adopting rank sum ratio analysis by synthesis method, comprehensive analyze each reference index in relay protection system in Preset Time data and relay protection system in the weighted value of each reference index;
Trend analysis module, for obtaining the trend of reliability change in described relay protection system Preset Time.
Relay protection system analysis method for reliability of the present invention and system; determine the reference index that in relay protection system, references object and each references object are corresponding; Delphi method is adopted to calculate the weighted value of each reference index in relay protection system; obtain the data of each reference index in relay protection system in Preset Time respectively; adopt rank sum ratio analysis by synthesis method; the comprehensive data of each reference index of analysis and the weighted value of each reference index, obtain the trend of reliability change in described relay protection system Preset Time.In whole process; rank sum ratio comprehensive evaluation is adopted to analyze relay protection system reliability; each index comprehensive of hardware, software, personnel can be considered by rank sum ratio comprehensive evaluation effectively; draw the time dependent trend of the reliability of relay protection system within a period of time; thus grasp the safety and reliability of relay protection system better, guarantee normal, the safe operation of electric power network system.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is relay protection system hardware configuration schematic diagram;
Fig. 2 is the schematic flow sheet of one of them embodiment of relay protection system analysis method for reliability of the present invention;
Fig. 3 is the structural representation of one of them embodiment of relay protection system reliability analysis system of the present invention.
Embodiment
In order to make object of the present invention, technical scheme and advantage clearly understand, below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiment, the present invention is further elaborated.Should be appreciated that concrete enforcement described herein is only in order to explain the present invention, does not limit the present invention.
Mostly Reliability Evaluation Model is in the past the long-term average confidence level of reflection protective relaying device, is difficult to effectively to reflect the reliability of relay protection system over time.Each index comprehensive of hardware, software, personnel can be considered by rank sum ratio comprehensive evaluation effectively; finally draw the time dependent trend of the reliability of relay protection system within a period of time, each stage integrality that protection system is being run can be grasped more intuitively.Other analysis method for reliability, as Markov state space law, Fault Tree, GO method etc., also by obtaining the reliability of different time respectively, and then can obtain the reliability variation tendency of protection system within a period of time.But Markov state space law relates to the calculating of matrix, calculated amount is large, and is not easy to promote; The process more complicated of Fault Tree and the modeling of GO method, also has certain limitation.And rank sum ratio comprehensive evaluation rule does not have these to limit, with strong points, operate easily simple, convenient popularization.
Each index comprehensive of hardware, software, personnel can be considered by rank sum ratio comprehensive evaluation effectively; finally draw the time dependent trend of the reliability of relay protection system within a period of time, the safety and reliability of relay protection system can be grasped better.In addition, rank sum ratio comprehensive evaluation is with strong points, operates easily simple, convenient popularization.Rank sum ratio comprehensive evaluation ultimate principle is in a capable m column matrix of n, changed by order, obtain dimensionless statistic RSR (rank sum ratio), on this basis, use concept and the method for Parameter statistical analysis, the distribution of research RSR, directly sorts or grading sorting to the quality of evaluation object with RSR value, thus makes comprehensive evaluation to evaluation object.
As shown in Figure 2, a kind of relay protection system analysis method for reliability, comprises step:
S100: traversal relay protection system, determines the reference index that in relay protection system, references object and each references object are corresponding.
In general; relay protection system references object can comprise relay protection system hardware, relay protection system software and relay protection system personnel, and in relay protection system, reference index is relay protection system hardware availability, relay protection system software failure rate and relay protection system personnel crash rate.
For relay protection system hardware availability; can be simulated by hardware failure model; hardware each module composition as shown in Figure 1 of relay protection system, the whether normal work relationship of modules is to the reliability of whole protection, and its malfunction may cause malfunction or the tripping of protection.As shown in Figure 1, relay protection system body generally can be divided into 7 functional modules: 1, power supply module PSU; 2, central processing module CPU; 3, switching input module DI; 4, switching value output module DO; 5, Analog Data Acquistion Module AI; 6, external communication interface module CI; 7, human-computer conversation interface module MMI.Wherein external communication interface module CI and human-machine interface module MMI and the module realizing defencive function are weak to contact or without contacting, its inefficacy can not cause tripping and malfunction.So generally we only consider inefficacy and the fail-safe analysis of five functional modules.
In order to improve the reliability level of microcomputer protection system; the protection element composition system that reliability can be adopted higher; main means adopt fault-tolerant technique; when certain part in system breaks down; the some work of fault can be replaced, to ensure that system completes the function of regulation in official hour by the part of redundancy.If the life-span obeys index distribution of each element, namely then the fiduciary level of each module is respectively R OC ( t ) = e - λ OC t , R AI ( t ) = e - λ AI t , R D ( t ) = e - λ D t , E EM ( t ) = e - λ EM t , R CPU′=1-(1-R EMR CPU) 2
Relay protection system software failure rate is analyzed: software failure hidden danger will constantly be excluded in test and operational process, therefore, the trend that the reliability of software is improved; The complicacy of software due to self and the introducing of Software for Design mistake, make the theory based on static process become and be not suitable for the non-static phenomenon representing that software reliability increases or decays and so on.Therefore adopt the second failure-rate models to calculate the crash rate of relay protection software.The Bian model of Logarithmic exponential model as assessment software reliability, its crash rate is:
λ(t)=λ 0e -θt
Wherein: λ 0---primary failure rate
θ---inefficacy slip coefficient
T---the accumulative mistake found in running software.
Software failure will cause microcomputer protecting device to occur malfunction or tripping, and the number of times that the Microcomputer Protection caused due to software failure in reality lost efficacy is relatively less, think that the probability that mistake action and rejecting action two kinds of situations occur is identical, respectively account for 50% of software failure.
Relay protection system personnel crash rate: the cognitive process of people is the characteristic of human brain reflection objective things and contacts, and discloses the psychological activity of things to the complexity of the significance & effect of people.Cognitive Reliability (HCR) model of people, be called for short HCR model, namely when analyzing human reriability, based on cognitive psychology, the dynamic cognitive process of research people under emergent sight emphatically, comprise detect, diagnose, the intentional behavior such as decision-making, probe into the error mechanism of people and Modling model.Based on the Weibull Function of 2 parameters, build the error-response probability λ of operator at time t pmodel is as follows:
λ P=exp{-[(t/T 1/2)/η] β}
In formula: t---the response time;
T 1/2---personnel complete a certain operation Median Time used;
η, β can be drawn by relevant mathematical method, represent yardstick and the shape coefficient of cognitive behavior model.
Pass between variable is η=1/ (ln2) 1/ βand T 1/2=η/(ln2) 1/ β.As long as determine η, β by above formula is known, just personnel's crash rate can be obtained.Personnel were lost efficacy and protection system also will be caused to occur malfunction or tripping, thought that the probability that both of these case occurs is identical.
S200: adopt Delphi method to calculate the weighted value of each reference index in relay protection system.
Delphi method (Delphi method) also claims expert survey, is that the problem of required solution is sent to separately in each expert's hand by a kind of communication modes that adopts respectively, consultation, then reclaims and gathers whole expertise, and arrange out consensus of opinion.Subsequently this consensus of opinion and forecasting problem are fed back to expert more respectively, again consultation, each expert according to oneself original suggestion of consensus of opinion amendment, and then gathers.So repeatedly repeatedly, the more consistent decision-making technique predicted the outcome progressively is obtained.Delphi method is according to the program of system, adopt the mode of the suggestion that publishes anonymously, namely must not discuss mutually between expert, there are not lateral ties, can only be related with investigator, the view of being asked a question to questionnaire by many round investigation experts, through repeatedly seeking the opinion of, concluding, revise, finally be aggregated into the view that expert is basically identical, as the result of prediction.This method has representative widely, comparatively reliably.
S300: the data obtaining each reference index in relay protection system in Preset Time respectively.
Based on historical empirical data, industry standard data or experts database data, obtain the data of each reference index in relay protection system in Preset Time.
S400: adopt rank sum ratio analysis by synthesis method, comprehensive analyze each reference index in relay protection system in Preset Time data and relay protection system in the weighted value of each reference index.
Rank sum ratio analysis by synthesis method is adopted the data of each index of a period of time to be processed.To adopt below in one of them embodiment, explain the process of description of step S400 in detail.
Wherein in an embodiment, in described relay protection system, references object has n, and reference index has m, and wherein, n and m is positive integer.Step S400 specifically comprises:
N references object and m reference index are arranged in the raw data table of the capable m row of n, compile out the order of each references object of each reference index, wherein, profit evaluation model index compiles order from small to large, cost type index compiles order from big to small, the identical person of same achievement data compiles average order, and the order matrix obtained is designated as R=(R ij) n × m;
According to formula calculate rank sum ratio, in formula, RSR iit is the rank sum ratio of i-th references object;
Integrate reference index weighted value in described rank sum ratio and described relay protection system, calculate weighting rank sum ratio, its computing formula is wherein, WRSR ibe the weighting rank sum ratio of i-th references object, w jfor a jth reference index weighted value,
By rank sum ratio or the ascending arrangement of weighting sum of ranks ratio, list each class frequency f i, calculate each group of cumulative frequency cf i, calculate cumulative frequency p i=cf i/ n, in each group, last cumulative frequency presses 1-1/ (4n) calculating, by percent p ibe converted to probit Probit i, wherein, n is each group of number comprising object, Probit ifor percent p icorresponding NED adds 5;
With cumulative frequency cf icorresponding probit Probit iand rank sum ratio or weighting rank sum ratio are independent variable, calculated line regression equation;
Rank sum ratio corresponding to calculating according to linear regression equation or weighting rank sum ratio estimated value carry out stepping or sequence to references object in relay protection system.
S500: the trend obtaining reliability change in described relay protection system Preset Time.
Relay protection system analysis method for reliability of the present invention; determine the reference index that in relay protection system, references object and each references object are corresponding; Delphi method is adopted to calculate the weighted value of each reference index in relay protection system; obtain the data of each reference index in relay protection system in Preset Time respectively; adopt rank sum ratio analysis by synthesis method; the comprehensive data of each reference index of analysis and the weighted value of each reference index, obtain the trend of reliability change in described relay protection system Preset Time.In whole process; rank sum ratio comprehensive evaluation is adopted to analyze relay protection system reliability; each index comprehensive of hardware, software, personnel can be considered by rank sum ratio comprehensive evaluation effectively; draw the time dependent trend of the reliability of relay protection system within a period of time; thus grasp the safety and reliability of relay protection system better, guarantee normal, the safe operation of electric power network system.
Wherein in an embodiment, in the described relay protection system Preset Time of described acquisition, the trend of reliability change is specially:
Carry out stepping or ordering scenario according to references object in relay protection system, analyze the trend of reliability change in described relay protection system Preset Time.
After grading sorting; we clearly learn references object reliability situation of change within certain time period in relay protection system; the Data Integration these learned is a complete time chain, analyzes the trend of reliability change in relay protection system Preset Time.
Wherein in an embodiment, after the trend of reliability change in the described relay protection system Preset Time of described acquisition also in steps:
According to the trend of reliability change in described relay protection system Preset Time, relay protection system reliability is analyzed.
Knowing the trend of the change of reliability in relay protection system Preset Time, we just can carry out reliability in time analysis for relay protection system in electric system, guarantee power system security, normally run.
Wherein in an embodiment; in described relay protection system, references object is relay protection system hardware, relay protection system software and relay protection system personnel, and in described relay protection system, reference index is relay protection system hardware availability, relay protection system software failure rate and relay protection system personnel crash rate.
In order to further explain the technical scheme of relay protection system analysis method for reliability of the present invention and the beneficial effect that brings thereof in detail, employing specific embodiment is carried out detailed explanation explanation below.
With reference to the statistics (" Operation Situation of Protective Relayings of State Grid Corporation in 2008 ") of element protection operation in power grids, collect relevant reliability data, each parameter value is as follows:
1) integrated circuit (IC)-components applied environment coefficient π in proterctive equipment e=2.5, device quality coefficient π q=2.5, device mature coefficient is π l=1, voltage stress derating number π v=1.
2) can obtain each hardware module crash rate as table 1 according to MIL-HDBK-217E model, table 2, shown in table 3
Table 1CPU Module Fail rate model
Table 2DO Module Fail rate model
Table 3PSU Module Fail rate model
Table 4AI Module Fail rate model
Table 5DI Module Fail rate model
Software failure rate data, get λ 0=120.0 × 10 -6/ h, attenuation coefficient θ=0.126; Personnel's crash rate data, get η=1.204, β=1.973, t/T 1/2=4.32.
Show that the availability of modules is:
R OC ( t ) = e - λ OC t = e - 22.3844 × 10 - 6 t ;
R AI ( t ) = e - λ AI t = e - 22.562 × 10 - 6 t ;
R D ( t ) = e - λ D t = e - 15.264 × 10 - 6 t ;
R EM ( t ) = e - λ EM t = e - 10.352 × 10 - 6 t ;
R CPU ( t ) = e - λ CPU t = 2 e - 36.738 × 10 - 6 t - e - 73.476 × 10 - 6 t ;
R PSU ( t ) = e - λ PSU t = 2 e - 11.4 × 10 - 6 t - e - 22.8 × 10 - 6 t .
Software failure rate is λ (t)=λ 0e -θ t=0.00012e -0.126t, personnel's crash rate is taken as a constant, i.e. λ people=3.978 × 10 -6/ h.Get computing time section for [0,5000d], the time interval is 500d, calculates availability and the software failure rate of the modules of each time point respectively, and protection system is in reliability variation tendency during this period of time to use rank sum ratio comprehensive evaluation to draw.
In table 6, table 7 and table 8, X1 is software failure rate, and X2 is OC availability, and X3 is AI availability, and X4 is PSU availability, and X5 is D availability, and X6 is CPU availability, and X7 is EM availability, and X8 is personnel's crash rate.Here X1 and X8 is low excellent type index, and all the other are high excellent type index.
Table 6 statistical indicator and weight coefficient
Sum of ranks weighting rank sum ratio compiled by table 7
Table 8 cumulative frequency, probit and weighting rank sum ratio estimated value
Drawn by simulation result above, within the time period [0,5000d], protection system reliability reduces along with the prolongation of time, in general, this meet reality produce in the change of protection system reliability.
As shown in Figure 3, a kind of relay protection system reliability analysis system, comprising:
References object and reference index determination module 100, for traveling through relay protection system, determine the reference index that in relay protection system, references object and each references object are corresponding;
Weight module 200, for the weighted value adopting Delphi method to calculate each reference index in relay protection system;
Acquisition module 300, for obtaining the data of each reference index in relay protection system in Preset Time respectively;
Comprehensive analysis module 400, for adopting rank sum ratio analysis by synthesis method, comprehensive analyze each reference index in relay protection system in Preset Time data and relay protection system in the weighted value of each reference index;
Trend analysis module 500, for obtaining the trend of reliability change in described relay protection system Preset Time.
Relay protection system reliability analysis system of the present invention, references object and reference index determination module 100 determine the reference index that in relay protection system, references object and each references object are corresponding, weight module 200 adopts Delphi method to calculate the weighted value of each reference index in relay protection system, acquisition module 300 obtains the data of each reference index in relay protection system in Preset Time respectively, comprehensive analysis module 400 adopts rank sum ratio analysis by synthesis method, the comprehensive data of each reference index of analysis and the weighted value of each reference index, trend analysis module 500 obtains the trend of reliability change in described relay protection system Preset Time.In whole process; rank sum ratio comprehensive evaluation is adopted to analyze relay protection system reliability; each index comprehensive of hardware, software, personnel can be considered by rank sum ratio comprehensive evaluation effectively; draw the time dependent trend of the reliability of relay protection system within a period of time; thus grasp the safety and reliability of relay protection system better, guarantee normal, the safe operation of electric power network system.
Wherein in an embodiment, in described relay protection system, references object has n, and reference index has m, and wherein, n and m is positive integer;
Described comprehensive analysis module 400 specifically comprises:
Compile order unit, for n references object and m reference index being arranged in the raw data table of the capable m row of n, compile out the order of each references object of each reference index, wherein, profit evaluation model index compiles order from small to large, cost type index compiles order from big to small, and the identical person of same achievement data compiles average order, and the order matrix obtained is designated as R=(R ij) n × m;
Rank sum ratio computing unit, for according to formula calculate rank sum ratio, in formula, RSR iit is the rank sum ratio of i-th references object;
Weighting rank sum ratio computing unit, for integrating reference index weighted value in described rank sum ratio and described relay protection system, calculate weighting rank sum ratio, its computing formula is wherein, WRSR ibe the weighting rank sum ratio of i-th references object, w jfor a jth reference index weighted value,
Probability calculation unit, for by rank sum ratio or the ascending arrangement of weighting sum of ranks ratio, lists each class frequency f i, calculate each group of cumulative frequency cf i, calculate cumulative frequency p i=cf i/ n, in each group, last cumulative frequency presses 1-1/ (4n) calculating, by percent p ibe converted to probit Probit i, wherein, n is each group of number comprising object, Probit ifor percent p icorresponding NED adds 5;
Linear regression equation computing unit, for cumulative frequency cf icorresponding probit Probit iand rank sum ratio or weighting rank sum ratio are independent variable, calculated line regression equation;
Grading sorting unit, carries out stepping or sequence for the rank sum ratio corresponding to linear regression equation reckoning or weighting rank sum ratio estimated value to references object in relay protection system.
Wherein in an embodiment, described trend analysis module 500, specifically for carrying out stepping or ordering scenario according to references object in relay protection system, analyzes the trend of reliability change in described relay protection system Preset Time.
Wherein in an embodiment, described relay protection system reliability analysis system also comprises:
Fail-safe analysis module, for the trend according to reliability change in described relay protection system Preset Time, analyzes relay protection system reliability.
Wherein in an embodiment; in described relay protection system, references object is relay protection system hardware, relay protection system software and relay protection system personnel, and in described relay protection system, reference index is relay protection system hardware availability, relay protection system software failure rate and relay protection system personnel crash rate.
The above embodiment only have expressed several embodiment of the present invention, and it describes comparatively concrete and detailed, but therefore can not be interpreted as the restriction to the scope of the claims of the present invention.It should be pointed out that for the person of ordinary skill of the art, without departing from the inventive concept of the premise, can also make some distortion and improvement, these all belong to protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, the protection domain of patent of the present invention should be as the criterion with claims.

Claims (10)

1. a relay protection system analysis method for reliability, is characterized in that, comprises step:
Traversal relay protection system, determines the reference index that in relay protection system, references object and each references object are corresponding;
Delphi method is adopted to calculate the weighted value of each reference index in relay protection system;
Obtain the data of each reference index in relay protection system in Preset Time respectively;
Adopt rank sum ratio analysis by synthesis method, comprehensive analyze each reference index in relay protection system in Preset Time data and relay protection system in the weighted value of each reference index;
Obtain the trend of reliability change in described relay protection system Preset Time.
2. relay protection system analysis method for reliability according to claim 1, is characterized in that, in described relay protection system, references object has n, reference index has m, wherein, n and m is positive integer, and described reference index comprises profit evaluation model index and cost type index;
Described employing rank sum ratio analysis by synthesis method, comprehensive analyze each reference index in relay protection system in Preset Time data and relay protection system in the weighted value of each reference index specifically comprise step:
N references object and m reference index are arranged in the raw data table of the capable m row of n, compile out the order of each references object of each reference index, wherein, profit evaluation model index compiles order from small to large, cost type index compiles order from big to small, the identical person of same achievement data compiles average order, and the order matrix obtained is designated as R=(R ij) n × m;
According to formula calculate rank sum ratio, in formula, RSR iit is the rank sum ratio of i-th references object;
Integrate reference index weighted value in described rank sum ratio and described relay protection system, calculate weighting rank sum ratio, its computing formula is wherein, WRSR ibe the weighting rank sum ratio of i-th references object, w jfor a jth reference index weighted value,
By rank sum ratio or the ascending arrangement of weighting sum of ranks ratio, list each class frequency f i, calculate each group of cumulative frequency cf i, calculate cumulative frequency p i=cf i/ n, in each group, last cumulative frequency presses 1-1/ (4n) calculating, by percent p ibe converted to probit Probit i, wherein, n is each group of number comprising object, Probit ifor percent p icorresponding NED adds 5;
With cumulative frequency cf icorresponding probit Probit iand rank sum ratio or weighting rank sum ratio are independent variable, calculated line regression equation;
Rank sum ratio corresponding to calculating according to linear regression equation or weighting rank sum ratio estimated value carry out stepping or sequence to references object in relay protection system.
3. relay protection system analysis method for reliability according to claim 2, is characterized in that, in the described relay protection system Preset Time of described acquisition, the trend of reliability change is specially:
Carry out stepping or ordering scenario according to references object in relay protection system, analyze the trend of reliability change in described relay protection system Preset Time.
4. relay protection system analysis method for reliability according to claim 1 and 2, is characterized in that, after the trend of reliability change in the described relay protection system Preset Time of described acquisition also in steps:
According to the trend of reliability change in described relay protection system Preset Time, relay protection system reliability is analyzed.
5. relay protection system analysis method for reliability according to claim 1 and 2; it is characterized in that; in described relay protection system, references object is relay protection system hardware, relay protection system software and relay protection system personnel, and in described relay protection system, reference index is relay protection system hardware availability, relay protection system software failure rate and relay protection system personnel crash rate.
6. a relay protection system reliability analysis system, is characterized in that, comprising:
References object and reference index determination module, for traveling through relay protection system, determine the reference index that in relay protection system, references object and each references object are corresponding;
Weight module, for the weighted value adopting Delphi method to calculate each reference index in relay protection system;
Acquisition module, for obtaining the data of each reference index in relay protection system in Preset Time respectively;
Comprehensive analysis module, for adopting rank sum ratio analysis by synthesis method, comprehensive analyze each reference index in relay protection system in Preset Time data and relay protection system in the weighted value of each reference index;
Trend analysis module, for obtaining the trend of reliability change in described relay protection system Preset Time.
7. relay protection system reliability analysis system according to claim 6, is characterized in that, in described relay protection system, references object has n, reference index has m, wherein, n and m is positive integer, and described reference index comprises profit evaluation model index and cost type index;
Described comprehensive analysis module specifically comprises:
Compile order unit, for n references object and m reference index being arranged in the raw data table of the capable m row of n, compile out the order of each references object of each reference index, wherein, profit evaluation model index compiles order from small to large, cost type index compiles order from big to small, and the identical person of same achievement data compiles average order, and the order matrix obtained is designated as R=(R ij) n × m;
Rank sum ratio computing unit, for according to formula calculate rank sum ratio, in formula, RSR iit is the rank sum ratio of i-th references object;
Weighting rank sum ratio computing unit, for integrating reference index weighted value in described rank sum ratio and described relay protection system, calculate weighting rank sum ratio, its computing formula is wherein, WRSR ibe the weighting rank sum ratio of i-th references object, w jfor a jth reference index weighted value,
Probability calculation unit, for by rank sum ratio or the ascending arrangement of weighting sum of ranks ratio, lists each class frequency f i, calculate each group of cumulative frequency cf i, calculate cumulative frequency p i=cf i/ n, in each group, last cumulative frequency presses 1-1/ (4n) calculating, by percent p ibe converted to probit Probit i, wherein, n is each group of number comprising object, Probit ifor percent p icorresponding NED adds 5;
Linear regression equation computing unit, for cumulative frequency cf icorresponding probit Probit iand rank sum ratio or weighting rank sum ratio are independent variable, calculated line regression equation;
Grading sorting unit, carries out stepping or sequence for the rank sum ratio corresponding to linear regression equation reckoning or weighting rank sum ratio estimated value to references object in relay protection system.
8. relay protection system reliability analysis system according to claim 7; it is characterized in that; described trend analysis module, specifically for carrying out stepping or ordering scenario according to references object in relay protection system, analyzes the trend of reliability change in described relay protection system Preset Time.
9. the relay protection system reliability analysis system according to claim 6 or 7, is characterized in that, also comprise:
Fail-safe analysis module, for the trend according to reliability change in described relay protection system Preset Time, analyzes relay protection system reliability.
10. the relay protection system reliability analysis system according to claim 6 or 7; it is characterized in that; in described relay protection system, references object is relay protection system hardware, relay protection system software and relay protection system personnel, and in described relay protection system, reference index is relay protection system hardware availability, relay protection system software failure rate and relay protection system personnel crash rate.
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CN104915777A (en) * 2015-06-12 2015-09-16 北京交通大学 Relay protection judgment method based on dynamic tendency analysis
CN104915777B (en) * 2015-06-12 2018-11-02 北京交通大学 Relay protection criterion method based on the analysis of dynamic trend degree
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CN108182511A (en) * 2017-12-11 2018-06-19 上海电力学院 It is a kind of based on Demand Side Response reserve value assessment method of the sum of ranks than method
CN108808672A (en) * 2018-07-10 2018-11-13 国网安徽省电力有限公司 A kind of protective device reliability on-line prediction method and system based on guarantor's letter system
CN110516960A (en) * 2019-08-23 2019-11-29 国网河北省电力有限公司保定供电分公司 A kind of reliability index quantitative calculation method of substation relay protection device
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