CN104537450A - Power prediction system of distributed photovoltaic power generation system - Google Patents
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Abstract
本发明公开了一种分布式光伏发电系统的功率预测系统，包括，气象数据处理终端，用于接收并精细化天气数据，得到降尺度的天气数据；分布式光伏监控装置，用于采集光伏发电系统运行数据；功率预测服务器，用于接收所述降尺度的天气数据和所述光伏发电系统运行数据并以所述降尺度的天气数据和所述光伏发电系统运行数据作为参数，对所述光伏发电系统进行功率预测。本发明通过上述的气象数据处理终端、分布式光伏监控装置和功率预测服务器实现本区域内光伏发电系统的功率预测，从而达到保障整个区域电网工作的稳定性和安全性的目的。
The invention discloses a power prediction system of a distributed photovoltaic power generation system, which includes a meteorological data processing terminal for receiving and refining weather data to obtain downscaled weather data; a distributed photovoltaic monitoring device for collecting photovoltaic power generation System operation data; a power prediction server, configured to receive the downscaled weather data and the operation data of the photovoltaic power generation system and use the downscaled weather data and the operation data of the photovoltaic power generation system as parameters to Power generation system for power forecasting. The present invention realizes the power prediction of the photovoltaic power generation system in the region through the above-mentioned meteorological data processing terminal, distributed photovoltaic monitoring device and power prediction server, so as to achieve the purpose of ensuring the stability and safety of the entire regional power grid.
Description
技术领域technical field
本发明涉及分布式光伏电系统电功率预测领域，特别是涉及一种分布式光伏发电系统的功率预测系统。The invention relates to the field of electric power forecasting of a distributed photovoltaic power system, in particular to a power forecasting system of a distributed photovoltaic power generation system.
背景技术Background technique
随着全球自然资源的不断减少，越来越多的国家致力于发展新型清洁能源。目前，我国一些地区开始设置光伏发电系统，利用太阳电池半导体材料的光伏效应，将太阳光辐射能直接转换为电能。With the continuous reduction of global natural resources, more and more countries are committed to the development of new clean energy. At present, some areas of our country have begun to set up photovoltaic power generation systems, which use the photovoltaic effect of solar cell semiconductor materials to directly convert solar radiation energy into electrical energy.
现在大多数的光伏发电系统为集中式光伏电站，并且，在集中式光伏电站，往往部署有发电功率预测系统。但是在一些小规模发电的场合，并不使用集中式光伏发电，而是采取分布式光伏发电系统。Most of the current photovoltaic power generation systems are centralized photovoltaic power plants, and in centralized photovoltaic power plants, power generation prediction systems are often deployed. However, in some small-scale power generation occasions, instead of using centralized photovoltaic power generation, a distributed photovoltaic power generation system is adopted.
分布式光伏发电规模小，往往不设置功率预测系统。但当大量且分散的分布式光伏发电系统接入电网时，会对电网规划产生影响。分布式光伏并入公共电网，加大了其所在区域的负荷预测难度，改变了既有的负荷增长模式。大量的分布式电源的接入，使配电网的改造和管理变得更为复杂。如果不对其进行功率预测，那么将会干扰整个区域电网工作的稳定性和安全性。Distributed photovoltaic power generation is small in scale and often does not have a power forecasting system. However, when a large number of distributed photovoltaic power generation systems are connected to the grid, it will have an impact on grid planning. The integration of distributed photovoltaics into the public power grid increases the difficulty of load forecasting in its area and changes the existing load growth model. The access of a large number of distributed power sources makes the transformation and management of the distribution network more complicated. If power forecasting is not performed on it, it will interfere with the stability and safety of the entire regional power grid.
因此，如何实现分布式光伏发电系统的功率预测，以保障整个区域电网工作的稳定性和安全性是亟待解决的问题。Therefore, how to realize the power prediction of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system to ensure the stability and safety of the entire regional power grid is an urgent problem to be solved.
发明内容Contents of the invention
本发明的目的是提供一种分布式光伏发电系统的功率预测系统，以实现对分布式光伏发电系统的功率预测，进而保障整个区域电网工作的稳定性和安全性。The purpose of the present invention is to provide a power prediction system for a distributed photovoltaic power generation system, so as to realize the power prediction of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system, and then ensure the stability and safety of the entire regional power grid.
一种分布式光伏发电系统的功率预测系统，包括：A power prediction system for a distributed photovoltaic power generation system, comprising:
气象数据处理终端，用于接收并精细化天气数据，得到降尺度的天气数据；Meteorological data processing terminal, used to receive and refine weather data, and obtain downscaled weather data;
分布式光伏监控装置，用于采集光伏发电系统运行数据；和Distributed photovoltaic monitoring device for collecting operating data of photovoltaic power generation system; and
功率预测服务器，用于接收所述降尺度的天气数据和所述光伏发电系统运行数据并以所述降尺度的天气数据和所述光伏发电系统运行数据作为参数，对所述光伏发电系统进行功率预测。a power forecasting server, configured to receive the downscaled weather data and the operation data of the photovoltaic power generation system and use the downscaled weather data and the operation data of the photovoltaic power generation system as parameters to calculate the power of the photovoltaic power generation system predict.
优选地，还包括：Preferably, it also includes:
反向网络隔离装置，用于对所述降尺度的天气数据进行监控，将符合规则的所述降尺度的天气数据传输至所述功率预测服务器。The reverse network isolation device is configured to monitor the downscaled weather data, and transmit the downscaled weather data conforming to the rules to the power prediction server.
优选地，还包括：用户工作站，用于显示所述功率预测系统进行功率预测的结果。Preferably, it further includes: a user workstation, configured to display the power prediction result performed by the power prediction system.
优选地，所述气象数据处理终端包括：Preferably, the meteorological data processing terminal includes:
数值天气预报数据接收模块，用于接收数值天气预报数据；和A numerical weather prediction data receiving module, configured to receive numerical weather prediction data; and
实时气象数据接收模块，用于接收实时气象数据。The real-time meteorological data receiving module is used for receiving real-time meteorological data.
优选地，所述数值天气预报数据包括：辐照度、风速、风向、气压、气温和湿度。Preferably, the numerical weather forecast data includes: irradiance, wind speed, wind direction, air pressure, air temperature and humidity.
优选地，数值天气预报数据接收模块的时间分辨率为：15分钟。Preferably, the time resolution of the numerical weather forecast data receiving module is 15 minutes.
优选地，数值天气预报数据接收模块的时效长度为：168小时。Preferably, the duration of the numerical weather forecast data receiving module is 168 hours.
优选地，所述功率预测系统在光伏发电系统非正常停机的状态下继续进行功率预测。Preferably, the power prediction system continues to perform power prediction when the photovoltaic power generation system is abnormally shut down.
优选地，所述气象数据处理终端、分布式光伏监控装置以及功率预测服务器之间通过局域网通信连接。Preferably, the meteorological data processing terminal, the distributed photovoltaic monitoring device and the power prediction server are connected through a local area network communication.
优选地，所述分布式光伏监控装置设置有防火墙。Preferably, the distributed photovoltaic monitoring device is provided with a firewall.
因此，本发明具有如下有益效果：Therefore, the present invention has following beneficial effect:
本发明提供的功率预测系统包括气象数据处理终端，用于接收并精细化天气数据，得到降尺度的天气数据；分布式光伏监控装置，用于采集光伏发电系统运行数据；功率预测服务器，用于接收所述降尺度的天气数据和所述光伏发电系统运行数据并以所述降尺度的天气数据和所述光伏发电系统运行数据作为参数，对所述光伏发电系统进行功率预测。本发明通过上述的气象数据处理终端、分布式光伏监控装置和功率预测服务器实现本区域内光伏发电系统的功率预测，从而达到保障整个区域电网工作的稳定性和安全性的目的。The power prediction system provided by the present invention includes a meteorological data processing terminal for receiving and refining weather data to obtain downscaled weather data; a distributed photovoltaic monitoring device for collecting operating data of photovoltaic power generation systems; a power prediction server for receiving the downscaled weather data and the operation data of the photovoltaic power generation system and using the downscaled weather data and the operation data of the photovoltaic power generation system as parameters to perform power prediction on the photovoltaic generation system. The present invention realizes the power prediction of the photovoltaic power generation system in the region through the above-mentioned meteorological data processing terminal, distributed photovoltaic monitoring device and power prediction server, so as to achieve the purpose of ensuring the stability and safety of the entire regional power grid.
附图说明Description of drawings
为了更清楚地说明本发明实施例或现有技术中的技术方案，下面将对实施例或现有技术描述中所需要使用的附图作简单地介绍，显而易见地，下面描述中的附图是本发明的一些实施例，对于本领域普通技术人员来讲，在不付出创造性劳动的前提下，还可以根据这些附图获得其他的附图。In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the following will briefly introduce the drawings that need to be used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art. Obviously, the accompanying drawings in the following description are For some embodiments of the present invention, those skilled in the art can also obtain other drawings based on these drawings without creative work.
图1为本发明提供的一种分布式光伏发电系统的功率预测系统的结构示意图；Fig. 1 is a schematic structural diagram of a power prediction system of a distributed photovoltaic power generation system provided by the present invention;
图2为本发明提供的另一种分布式光伏发电系统的功率预测系统的结构示意图。Fig. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of another power prediction system of a distributed photovoltaic power generation system provided by the present invention.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
本发明的核心是提供一种分布式光伏发电系统的功率预测系统。The core of the present invention is to provide a power prediction system of a distributed photovoltaic power generation system.
为了使本技术领域的人员更好地理解本发明的方案，下面结合附图和具体实施方式对本发明作进一步的详细说明。In order to enable those skilled in the art to better understand the solutions of the present invention, the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.
在以下描述中阐述了具体细节以便于充分理解本发明。但是本发明能够以多种不同于在此描述的其它方式来实施，本领域技术人员可以在不违背本发明内涵的情况下做类似推广。因此本发明不受下面公开的具体实施的限制。In the following description, specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the present invention. However, the present invention can be implemented in many other ways than those described here, and those skilled in the art can make similar extensions without departing from the connotation of the present invention. Accordingly, the invention is not limited to the specific implementations disclosed below.
本发明公开了一种分布式光伏发电系统的功率预测系统，参见图1，该实施例包括以下内容：The invention discloses a power prediction system of a distributed photovoltaic power generation system, referring to Fig. 1, the embodiment includes the following contents:
气象数据处理终端10，用于接收并精细化天气数据，得到降尺度的天气数据。The meteorological data processing terminal 10 is used to receive and refine weather data to obtain downscaled weather data.
气象环境数据是决定太阳能发电的重要指标,对太阳能发电质量起着决定性作用。例如，在不同的天气类型下，光伏发电系统的发电功率曲线是完全不同的，不同的天气还会使发电功率曲线的尖峰出现时刻有所不同。因此，在对光伏发电系统进行功率预测时，需要采集当地的天气数据。Meteorological environment data is an important indicator for determining solar power generation, and plays a decisive role in the quality of solar power generation. For example, under different weather types, the power generation curves of photovoltaic power generation systems are completely different, and different weather will also make the peaks of the power generation curves appear at different times. Therefore, it is necessary to collect local weather data when predicting the power of a photovoltaic power generation system.
需要说明的是，气象数据处理终端在接收到天气数据后，进行降尺度处理，使该天气数据细化，从而提高天气预报的精度。It should be noted that after receiving the weather data, the meteorological data processing terminal performs downscaling processing to refine the weather data, thereby improving the accuracy of the weather forecast.
分布式光伏监控装置20，用于采集光伏发电系统运行数据。The distributed photovoltaic monitoring device 20 is used to collect operating data of the photovoltaic power generation system.
具体的，对光伏发电系统的电功率预测，需要该光伏发电系统的发电量的历史数据作为参考，综合天气数据进行光伏发电系统的功率预测。Specifically, for the electric power prediction of the photovoltaic power generation system, the historical data of the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation system is needed as a reference, and the power prediction of the photovoltaic power generation system is performed based on weather data.
功率预测服务器30，用于接收所述降尺度的天气数据和所述光伏发电系统运行数据并以所述降尺度的天气数据和所述光伏发电系统运行数据作为参数，对所述光伏发电系统进行功率预测。The power forecasting server 30 is configured to receive the downscaled weather data and the operation data of the photovoltaic power generation system and use the downscaled weather data and the operation data of the photovoltaic power generation system as parameters to perform an operation on the photovoltaic power generation system power prediction.
本发明通过上述的气象数据处理终端、分布式光伏监控装置和功率预测服务器实现本区域内光伏发电系统的功率预测，从而达到保障整个区域电网工作的稳定性和安全性的目的。The present invention realizes the power prediction of the photovoltaic power generation system in the region through the above-mentioned meteorological data processing terminal, distributed photovoltaic monitoring device and power prediction server, so as to achieve the purpose of ensuring the stability and safety of the entire regional power grid.
本发明还公开了一种分布式光伏发电系统的功率预测系统，参见图2，该实施例包括以下内容：The present invention also discloses a power prediction system of a distributed photovoltaic power generation system, referring to Fig. 2, this embodiment includes the following content:
气象数据处理终端10，用于接收并精细化天气数据，得到降尺度的天气数据。The meteorological data processing terminal 10 is used to receive and refine weather data to obtain downscaled weather data.
在一个具体的实施例中，所述气象数据处理终端包括以下部分：In a specific embodiment, the meteorological data processing terminal includes the following parts:
数值天气预报数据接收模块，用于接收数值天气预报数据。The numerical weather prediction data receiving module is used for receiving numerical weather prediction data.
实时气象数据接收模块，用于接收实时气象数据。The real-time meteorological data receiving module is used for receiving real-time meteorological data.
数值天气预报是用数学物理模式对大气状况进行分析并计算出天气预报的方法，它是目前全世界在广泛应用的一种天气预报方法。它根据描述大气运动规律的流动力学和热力学原理建立方程组，确定某个时刻大气的初始状态后，就可通过数学方法求解，计算出来某个时间大气的状态。在一个具体的实施例中，数值天气预报数据包括：辐照度、风速、风向、气压、气温和湿度。Numerical weather prediction is a method of analyzing atmospheric conditions and calculating weather forecasts with mathematical and physical models. It is a weather forecast method widely used in the world at present. It establishes a system of equations based on the principles of fluid dynamics and thermodynamics that describe the law of atmospheric motion. After determining the initial state of the atmosphere at a certain time, it can be solved by mathematical methods to calculate the state of the atmosphere at a certain time. In a specific embodiment, the numerical weather prediction data includes: irradiance, wind speed, wind direction, air pressure, air temperature and humidity.
在其他的实施例中，数值天气预报数据接收模块的时间分辨率为15分钟。数值天气预报数据接收模块的时效长度为168小时。In other embodiments, the time resolution of the numerical weather forecast data receiving module is 15 minutes. The duration of the numerical weather prediction data receiving module is 168 hours.
由于数值天气预报的数据是影响功率预测精度的主要因素之一，因此，其时间分辨率可以与光伏发电系统实时功率的采集周期相对应，设置相同的时间分辨率。Since the numerical weather prediction data is one of the main factors affecting the power prediction accuracy, its time resolution can correspond to the acquisition period of the real-time power of the photovoltaic power generation system, and the same time resolution can be set.
分布式光伏监控装置20，用于采集光伏发电系统运行数据。The distributed photovoltaic monitoring device 20 is used to collect operating data of the photovoltaic power generation system.
具体的，在一个实施例中，所述分布式光伏监控装置设置有防火墙。设置有防火墙的分布式光伏监控装置能够更安全可靠地传输采集到的光伏发电系统运行数据。Specifically, in one embodiment, the distributed photovoltaic monitoring device is provided with a firewall. The distributed photovoltaic monitoring device equipped with a firewall can more safely and reliably transmit the collected operating data of the photovoltaic power generation system.
在一个应用场景下，分布式光伏监控装置采集对应光伏发电系统的电压、电流及电功率等模拟数据，还可以采集所述光伏发电系统的开关状态、异常信号等状态数据。当然，需要说明的是，在其他的场景下，也可以根据实际情况采集其他数据，本发明在此并不做限制。In one application scenario, the distributed photovoltaic monitoring device collects analog data such as voltage, current, and electric power of the corresponding photovoltaic power generation system, and can also collect state data such as switch status and abnormal signals of the photovoltaic power generation system. Of course, it should be noted that in other scenarios, other data may also be collected according to actual conditions, which is not limited in the present invention.
功率预测服务器30，用于接收所述降尺度的天气数据和所述光伏发电系统运行数据并以所述降尺度的天气数据和所述光伏发电系统运行数据作为参数，对所述光伏发电系统进行功率预测。The power forecasting server 30 is configured to receive the downscaled weather data and the operation data of the photovoltaic power generation system and use the downscaled weather data and the operation data of the photovoltaic power generation system as parameters to perform an operation on the photovoltaic power generation system power prediction.
具体的，功率预测服务器通过计算，预测单个光伏发电系统的输出功率，也可以计算一定区域内多个光伏发电系统的综合输出功率。因此，进一步实现了对本地区电网调度对本区域范围内的分布式光伏发电系统的发电功率的集中预测。Specifically, the power prediction server predicts the output power of a single photovoltaic power generation system through calculation, and can also calculate the comprehensive output power of multiple photovoltaic power generation systems in a certain area. Therefore, the centralized prediction of the power generation of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system within the region for the local grid dispatching is further realized.
反向网络隔离装置40，用于对所述降尺度的天气数据进行监控，将符合规则的所述降尺度的天气数据传输至所述功率预测服务器。The reverse network isolation device 40 is configured to monitor the downscaled weather data, and transmit the downscaled weather data conforming to the rules to the power prediction server.
具体的，为了保障预测系统的安全性，并满足国家电网公司对光伏发电安全性的要求，在功率预测服务器和气象数据处理终端之间设置反向网络隔离装置。反向网络隔离装置在硬件上实现物理上的隔离，在软件上，采用综合过滤、访问控制、应用代理、等技术实现网络隔离。在保证网络透明性的同时，实现了对非法信息的隔离。Specifically, in order to ensure the safety of the forecasting system and meet the requirements of the State Grid Corporation of China for the safety of photovoltaic power generation, a reverse network isolation device is installed between the power forecasting server and the meteorological data processing terminal. The reverse network isolation device implements physical isolation on the hardware, and implements network isolation on the software by using technologies such as comprehensive filtering, access control, and application agents. While ensuring the transparency of the network, the isolation of illegal information is realized.
在其他的实施例中，本发明公开的所述功率预测系统还包括用户工作站，用于显示所述功率预测系统进行功率预测的结果。In other embodiments, the power prediction system disclosed in the present invention further includes a user workstation for displaying the power prediction result of the power prediction system.
在一个具体的应用场景中，用户登录该用户工作站后，可以看到各个光伏发电系统的地理分布情况，以及功率预测系统对各个光伏发电系统的实时功率预测。同时，显示的结果可以根据实际情况，每隔一段时间刷新一次显示页面。具体的，可以将刷新间隔设置为1分钟至5分钟。当然，在本发明中，只是列举了具体的实例，并不是指刷新间隔只能在1分钟至5分钟。另外，可以设置预测功率的刷新周期为15分钟。当然，预测功率的刷新周期与对光伏发电系统实时功率的采集周期有关，因此，可以据此进行设置。In a specific application scenario, after the user logs in to the user workstation, he can see the geographical distribution of each photovoltaic power generation system, as well as the real-time power prediction of each photovoltaic power generation system by the power prediction system. At the same time, the displayed results can be refreshed at regular intervals according to the actual situation. Specifically, the refresh interval may be set to 1 minute to 5 minutes. Of course, in the present invention, only specific examples are listed, and it does not mean that the refresh interval can only be between 1 minute and 5 minutes. In addition, the refresh period of the predicted power can be set to 15 minutes. Of course, the refresh period of the predicted power is related to the collection period of the real-time power of the photovoltaic power generation system, so it can be set accordingly.
当然，显示的方式可以是预测曲线也可以是列表，提供一定时间内的预测数据。一个具体的实例是，用户登录后，显示4天内的预测数据，并可以到处数据列表。Of course, the display method can be a forecast curve or a list, providing forecast data within a certain period of time. A specific example is that after the user logs in, the forecast data within 4 days is displayed, and the data list can be viewed everywhere.
在其他的场景中，根据实际需要，也可以对天气信息进行显示。具体的，例如显示温度曲线、湿度曲线、云量曲线以及天气预报等。其显示方式也可以是报表形式。本发明在此并不做限制。当然，显示的内容还可以包括一些统计信息和报表信息。当然，针对整个预测系统，还可以显示诸如对应的光伏发电系统的技术参数、用户工作站的使用记录等。In other scenarios, weather information may also be displayed according to actual needs. Specifically, for example, temperature curves, humidity curves, cloud cover curves, and weather forecasts are displayed. Its display mode can also be in the form of a report. The present invention is not limited here. Of course, the displayed content may also include some statistical information and report information. Of course, for the entire prediction system, technical parameters of the corresponding photovoltaic power generation system, usage records of user workstations, etc. can also be displayed.
在一个具体的实施例中，所述功率预测系统在光伏发电系统非正常停机的状态下继续进行功率预测。在实际情况中，会出现非正常停机现象，例如光伏发电系统检修或故障，而这些非正常停机现象会影响分布式光伏发电系统的发电能力。因此，在分布式光伏发电系统非正常停机的状态下支持功率预测，准确估算近期的发电功率，以确保整个区域电力系统运行的安全性。In a specific embodiment, the power prediction system continues to perform power prediction when the photovoltaic power generation system is abnormally shut down. In actual situations, there will be abnormal shutdown phenomena, such as photovoltaic power generation system maintenance or failure, and these abnormal shutdown phenomena will affect the power generation capacity of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system. Therefore, it supports power forecasting in the state of abnormal shutdown of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system, and accurately estimates the recent power generation to ensure the safety of the entire regional power system operation.
在一个具体的场景下，所述气象数据处理终端、分布式光伏监控装置以及功率预测服务器之间通过局域网通信连接。In a specific scenario, the meteorological data processing terminal, the distributed photovoltaic monitoring device and the power prediction server are connected through a local area network.
需要说明的是，在本文中，诸如第一和第二等之类的关系术语仅仅用来将一个实体或者操作与另一个实体或操作区分开来，而不一定要求或者暗示这些实体或操作之间存在任何这种实际的关系或者顺序。It should be noted that in this article, relational terms such as first and second are only used to distinguish one entity or operation from another entity or operation, and do not necessarily require or imply that there is a relationship between these entities or operations. There is no such actual relationship or order between them.
以上对本发明所提供的进行了详细介绍。本文中应用了具体个例对本发明的原理及实施方式进行了阐述，以上实施例的说明只是用于帮助理解本发明的原理及其核心思想。应当指出，对于本技术领域的普通技术人员来说，在不脱离本发明原理的前提下，还可以对本发明进行若干改进和修饰，这些改进和修饰也落入本发明权利要求的保护范围内。The details provided by the present invention have been described above. In this paper, specific examples are used to illustrate the principles and implementation modes of the present invention, and the descriptions of the above embodiments are only used to help understand the principles and core ideas of the present invention. It should be pointed out that for those skilled in the art, without departing from the principles of the present invention, some improvements and modifications can be made to the present invention, and these improvements and modifications also fall within the protection scope of the claims of the present invention.
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