CN104537429A - Short-term load forecasting method and device based on data warehouse and data mining technology - Google Patents
Short-term load forecasting method and device based on data warehouse and data mining technology Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a short-term load forecasting method based on a data warehouse and a data mining technology. The method is characterized by including the steps of collecting data, extracting regional load historical data, conducting data handling and cleansing, fitting the curvilinear relationship between related parameters and loads, extracting load forecasting data, forecasting loads, and the like. The invention further provides a short-term load forecasting device based on the data warehouse and the data mining technology. The short-term load forecasting device comprises a regional load data collection device and a short-term load forecasting instrument. The method and the device have the advantages that the method is scientific and reasonable, and the short-term loads of power grids can be rapidly forecasted; the device is reasonable in structure, high in automation degree and the like.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to fields of measurement, specifically, is a kind of short-term load forecasting method based on Data warehouse and data mining technology and device.
Background technology
Short-term electric load prediction mainly refers to the electric load of forecast coming few hours, 1 day to several days, load forecast is the important component part of energy management system, short-term load forecasting not only for electric system safety, economical operation provides safeguard, and is also the basis of layout operation plan under market environment, power supply plan, trading program.Along with electrical production and the consumption marketization day by day, to the accuracy of load prediction, real-time, reliability with intelligently to have higher requirement, therefore, load prediction has become an important research field in modern power industry system cloud gray model and management.
The size of short-term load forecasting effect depends primarily on precision of prediction, and therefore how improving precision of prediction is the emphasis studying short-term load forecasting Theories and methods at present.Research about short-term load forecasting has very long history, and domestic and international many experts and scholar have done a large amount of research work in prediction theory and method, propose a lot of forecast model.But because the factor affecting short term is a lot, precision of prediction and the usable range of a lot of Forecasting Methodology are restricted.
Therefore, adopt complex mathematical algorithm for current short term prediction method majority, complicated mathematical method is carried out to various data and processes, not only at substantial resource, and the load prediction data obtained is very not satisfactory.
At present, due to the fast development of computer calculate, the Data warehouse and data mining technology especially in database technology, makes based on the data mining in mass data and is treated as possibility.The ability of short-term load forecasting to power network safety operation and raising resisting risk will play very crucial and important effect.
Summary of the invention
Concept of the present invention is:
1. load forecast is the historical data according to electric load and its influence factor, sets up relevant model, carries out scientific forecasting to future electrical energy load.Short term has randomness and uncertainty, this uncertainty just making load prediction tool predict the outcome; Because various load prediction is carried out all under specific conditions, there is conditionality; Short-term load forecasting has regular hour scope, has timeliness; Due to the inaccuracy that predicts the outcome and conditionality, so have multi-scheme;
2. load prediction is the historical summary according to the load past, sets up the load of appropriate mathematical model to future and predicts.Therefore, precision of prediction mainly affects by following factor: historical data; Weather condition; Date type; Forecast model; Social event etc.;
3. short term due to by Changes in weather, social activities and red-letter day the various factors such as type impact, time series shows as the stochastic process of non-stationary, but major part has regularity in each factor of influential system load, thus lay a good foundation for realizing effective prediction.Method at present for short-term load forecasting is a lot, can be divided into classical Forecasting Methodology, traditional prediction method and Intelligent Forecasting etc.The key problem of load forecast research how to utilize existing historical data, set up forecast model, predict future time instance or the load value in the time period, therefore, the reliability of historical data information and forecast model are the principal elements affecting short-term load forecasting precision.Along with the progressively foundation of present power system management infosystem, and the raising of weather forecasting level, the various historical data of Obtaining Accurate is difficulty no longer, and therefore, the key problem of short-term load forecasting is the level height of forecast model;
4. this method is excavated and is implied unknown, to the valuable Repository of decision-making process from mass data, and the knowledge of extraction can be expressed as the forms such as concept, rule, rule and pattern.Data mining process comprises data encasement, knowledge extraction, the representation of knowledge and assessment three phases.In the face of the data message amount that electric system increases day by day, for the requirement of system cloud gray model security and economy, it is very favorable for data mining being used for short-term load forecasting, especially under the condition changed greatly in environmental factor and social information etc., data mining technology in complicated huge history number, can reject mistake and useless data, draws the implicit influence factor determining short term in the data, determine the real Changing Pattern of short term, thus improve precision of prediction;
5. the historical data of electrical network mainly will be comprised network load variable, type variable (week, festivals or holidays on date by the present invention, special event), (temperature, humidity, rainfall amount and special weather are as typhoon for Meteorological Change variable, sandstorm, heavy rain, ice damage), be entered into load prediction historical data computing machine after economic class variable (the GDP value of Grid, the size of population) and other social events (burst social event as Hong Kong accounts for medium) data processing, and logically set up the quick indexing of various factors based on load;
6. in data warehouse, set up the quick indexing between load and above characteristic parameter, when needs carry out short-term load forecasting, input the predicted value of above variable, and GDP is revised according to economic data, after correction factor is added to other events, retrieve relevant data in data warehouse, thus quick and precisely predict electrical network short term.
The present invention is based on above design, provide a kind of scientific and reasonable, can the short-term load forecasting method based on Data warehouse and data mining technology of fast prediction electrical network short term.And provide and realize said method, rational in infrastructure, the device that automaticity is high.
One of the technical solution used in the present invention is: a kind of short-term load forecasting device based on Data warehouse and data mining technology, it is characterized in that, it comprises: region load data gathering-device and short-term load forecasting instrument, described region load data gathering-device comprises electrical network and grid control centre monitoring calculation mechatronics, and grid control centre supervisory control comuter is electrically connected with the USB interface of region load collecting computer, wind gage, temperature humidity measuring instrument, rain sensor are electrically connected with data acquisition board respectively, the USB interface that data acquisition board calculates with region load collection is electrically connected, economic data computing machine is electrically connected with the network interface RJ45 of region load collecting computer, region load collecting computer is electrically connected with demand history data computer, and described region load is collected the USB interface of computing machine, data processing software, data warehouse software and display and is electrically connected successively, described short-term load forecasting instrument comprises: weather bureau's weather forecast computing machine is electrically connected with the network interface RJ45 of short-term load forecasting computing machine, economic data computing machine is electrically connected with the network interface RJ45 of short-term load forecasting computing machine, the data warehouse software of a kind of region load data gathering-device is electrically connected with the network interface RJ45 of short-term load forecasting computing machine by network interface RJ45, the network interface RJ45 of short-term load forecasting computing machine is connected with the data warehouse software be arranged on short-term load forecasting computing machine, the data warehouse software be arranged on short-term load forecasting computing machine is connected with the data mining software be arranged on short-term load forecasting computing machine, the data mining software be arranged on short-term load forecasting computing machine is connected with the load prediction software be arranged on short-term load forecasting computing machine, the load prediction software be arranged on short-term load forecasting computing machine is connected with the display of short-term load forecasting computing machine, the demand history data computer of region load data gathering-device is electrically connected with the network interface RJ45 of short-term load forecasting instrument, and the economic data computing machine of region load data gathering-device is electrically connected with the network interface RJ45 of short-term load forecasting instrument.
Two of the technical solution used in the present invention is: a kind of short-term load forecasting method based on Data warehouse and data mining technology, and it is characterized in that, it comprises the following steps:
1) data acquisition: with region load data gathering-device, network load correlation parameter Real-time Collection is entered region load collecting computer, the network load data of concrete memory space have: network load, week, festivals or holidays, time, temperature, humidity, rainfall amount, typhoon, sandstorm, heavy rain and ice damage special weather, whether GDP value, the size of population of Grid have the accident affecting load, and event category delimited and provided the number percent that affects load stored in basic data needed for the load prediction of regional power grid load data;
2) demand history data in region are extracted: with region load data gathering-device, the data of region load collecting computer collection are extracted to send into be arranged in the data warehouse software of region load collecting computer for every 5 minutes automatically and stores, and send into demand history data computer, the network load data of concrete memory space have: network load, week, festivals or holidays, time, temperature, humidity, rainfall amount, typhoon, sandstorm, heavy rain, ice damage special weather, the GDP value of Grid, whether the size of population has the accident affecting load, event category delimit and provide affect load number percent stored in regional power grid load data load prediction historical data,
3) data preparation, cleaning, matching correlation parameter and load curve relation: the data that step 1) is gathered and step 2) data extracted arrange, revise, clean, remove bad data, ensure that data are effective;
4) load prediction data is extracted: extract load prediction desired data with short-term load forecasting instrument, specifically comprise week, festivals or holidays, temperature, humidity, rainfall amount, typhoon, sandstorm, heavy rain, ice damage special weather, the GDP value of Grid, whether the size of population, have the accident affecting load, and event category delimited and provided the percent data affecting load;
5) load prediction: with short-term load forecasting instrument prediction load desired data, at the data record that the data warehouse retrieval storing load prediction basic data is identical with data, and the load data extracting its correspondence is as predicted load, form the load prediction curve that load is corresponding with the time.
Short-term load forecasting method based on Data warehouse and data mining technology of the present invention is scientific and reasonable, can fast prediction electrical network short term.Apparatus structure of the present invention is reasonable, and automaticity is high.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the structural representation of a kind of short-term load forecasting device based on Data warehouse and data mining technology of the present invention;
Fig. 2 predicts the outcome and actual curve comparison diagram.
Embodiment
The invention will be further described to utilize embodiment shown in the drawings below.
With reference to Fig. 1, a kind of short-term load forecasting device based on Data warehouse and data mining technology of the present invention, comprising: region load data gathering-device and short-term load forecasting instrument.Described region load data gathering-device comprises electrical network 1 and is electrically connected with grid control centre supervisory control comuter 5, and grid control centre supervisory control comuter 5 is electrically connected with the USB interface 8 of region load collecting computer 7, wind gage 2, temperature humidity measuring instrument 3, rain sensor 4 are electrically connected with data acquisition board 6 respectively, the USB interface 8 that data acquisition board 6 calculates 7 with region load collection is electrically connected, economic data computing machine 15 is electrically connected with the network interface RJ45 9 of region load collecting computer 7, region load collecting computer 7 is electrically connected with demand history data computer 13, and described region load is collected the USB interface 8 of computing machine 7, data processing software 10, data warehouse software 11 and display 12 and is electrically connected successively, described short-term load forecasting instrument comprises: weather bureau's weather forecast computing machine 14 is electrically connected with the network interface RJ45 17 of short-term load forecasting computing machine 16, economic data computing machine 15 is electrically connected with the network interface RJ45 17 of short-term load forecasting computing machine 16, the network interface RJ45 17 of short-term load forecasting computing machine 16 is connected with the data warehouse software 18 be arranged on short-term load forecasting computing machine, the data warehouse software 18 be arranged on short-term load forecasting computing machine is connected with the data mining software 19 be arranged on short-term load forecasting computing machine, the data mining software 19 be arranged on short-term load forecasting computing machine is connected with the load prediction software 20 be arranged on short-term load forecasting computing machine, be arranged on the load prediction software 20 on short-term load forecasting computing machine to be connected with the display 21 of short-term load forecasting computing machine, the demand history data computer 13 of region load data gathering-device is electrically connected with the network interface RJ45 17 of short-term load forecasting instrument, and the economic data computing machine 15 of region load data gathering-device is electrically connected with the network interface RJ45 17 of short-term load forecasting instrument.
Wind gage, temperature humidity measuring instrument, rain sensor data acquisition unit, computing machine are commercially available prod.Wind gage 2 adopts the precious magnificent AVM-05 wind gage in Taiwan, temperature humidity measuring instrument 3 adopts U.S. fluke Fluke971/F971 temperature humidity measuring instrument, and rain sensor 4 adopts the rain sensor HB333-SL2 of Beijing 1,000,000 electronics, data acquisition board 6 adopts IMP3595 data acquisition system (DAS); Data warehouse software 11 and 19 adopts the PI real-time dataBase system of OSI company of the U.S..
The present invention's data processing software used according to automatic control technology and microcomputer data processing establishment, be those skilled in the art the technology be familiar with.
A kind of short-term load forecasting method based on Data warehouse and data mining technology of the present invention, comprises the following steps:
1) data acquisition: with region load data gathering-device, network load correlation parameter Real-time Collection is entered region load collecting computer, the network load data of concrete memory space have: network load, week, festivals or holidays, time, temperature, humidity, rainfall amount, typhoon, sandstorm, heavy rain and ice damage special weather, whether GDP value, the size of population of Grid have the accident affecting load, event category delimit and provide affect load number percent stored in basic data needed for the load prediction of table 1 regional power grid load data;
Basic data needed for the load prediction of table 1 regional power grid load data
Sequence number | Project | Time (Hour Minute Second ) | Numerical value |
1 | Network load | ||
2 | Week | ||
3 | Festivals or holidays | ||
4 | Temperature | ||
5 | Humidity | ||
6 | Rainfall amount | ||
7 | Special weather | ||
8 | The GDP value of Grid | ||
9 | The size of population | ||
10 | Affect the accident of load |
Region demand history data are extracted: with region load data gathering-device, the data of region load collecting computer collection are extracted to send into be arranged in the data warehouse software of region load collecting computer for every 5 minutes automatically and stores, and send into demand history data computer, the network load data of concrete memory space have: network load, week, festivals or holidays, time, temperature, humidity, rainfall amount, typhoon, sandstorm, heavy rain, ice damage special weather, the GDP value of Grid, whether the size of population has the accident affecting load, event category delimit and provide affect load number percent stored in table 2 regional power grid load data load prediction historical data,
Table 2 regional power grid load data load prediction historical data table
Sequence number | Project | Time (day Hour Minute Second) | Numerical value |
1 | Network load | ||
2 | Week | ||
3 | Festivals or holidays | ||
4 | Temperature | ||
5 | Time | ||
6 | Humidity | ||
7 | Rainfall amount | ||
8 | Special weather | ||
9 | The GDP value of Grid | ||
10 | The size of population | ||
11 | Affect the accident of load |
3) data preparation, cleaning, matching correlation parameter and load curve relation: the data that step 1) is gathered and step 2) data extracted arrange, revise, clean, remove bad data, ensure that data are effective;
4) load prediction data is extracted: use short-term load forecasting instrument, extract load prediction desired data, specifically comprise week according to table 2, festivals or holidays, temperature, humidity, rainfall amount, typhoon, sandstorm, heavy rain, ice damage special weather, the GDP value of Grid, the size of population, whether have the accident affecting load, event category delimited and provided the percent data affecting load;
5) load prediction: use short-term load forecasting instrument, according to table 2 load prediction desired data, at the data record that the data warehouse retrieval storing load prediction basic data is identical with data, and the load data extracting its correspondence is as predicted load, form the load prediction curve that load is corresponding with the time.
With reference to Fig. 2, for certain urban distribution network, include 2 years these urban history data, form fundamentals of forecasting data, line correlation of going forward side by side predicts the outcome.
Claims (2)
1. the short-term load forecasting device based on Data warehouse and data mining technology, it is characterized in that, it comprises: region load data gathering-device and short-term load forecasting instrument, described region load data gathering-device comprises electrical network and grid control centre monitoring calculation mechatronics, and grid control centre supervisory control comuter is electrically connected with the USB interface of region load collecting computer, wind gage, temperature humidity measuring instrument, rain sensor are electrically connected with data acquisition board respectively, the USB interface that data acquisition board calculates with region load collection is electrically connected, economic data computing machine is electrically connected with the network interface RJ45 of region load collecting computer, region load collecting computer is electrically connected with demand history data computer, and described region load is collected the USB interface of computing machine, data processing software, data warehouse software and display and is electrically connected successively, described short-term load forecasting instrument comprises: weather bureau's weather forecast computing machine is electrically connected with the network interface RJ45 of short-term load forecasting computing machine, economic data computing machine is electrically connected with the network interface RJ45 of short-term load forecasting computing machine, the data warehouse software of a kind of region load data gathering-device is electrically connected with the network interface RJ45 of short-term load forecasting computing machine by network interface RJ45, the network interface RJ45 of short-term load forecasting computing machine is connected with the data warehouse software be arranged on short-term load forecasting computing machine, the data warehouse software be arranged on short-term load forecasting computing machine is connected with the data mining software be arranged on short-term load forecasting computing machine, the data mining software be arranged on short-term load forecasting computing machine is connected with the load prediction software be arranged on short-term load forecasting computing machine, the load prediction software be arranged on short-term load forecasting computing machine is connected with the display of short-term load forecasting computing machine, the demand history data computer of region load data gathering-device is electrically connected with the network interface RJ45 of short-term load forecasting instrument, and the economic data computing machine of region load data gathering-device is electrically connected with the network interface RJ45 of short-term load forecasting instrument.
2. based on a short-term load forecasting method for Data warehouse and data mining technology, it is characterized in that, it comprises the following steps:
1) data acquisition: with region load data gathering-device, network load correlation parameter Real-time Collection is entered region load collecting computer, the network load data of concrete memory space have: network load, week, festivals or holidays, time, temperature, humidity, rainfall amount, typhoon, sandstorm, heavy rain and ice damage special weather, whether GDP value, the size of population of Grid have the accident affecting load, and event category delimited and provided the number percent that affects load stored in basic data needed for the load prediction of regional power grid load data;
2) demand history data in region are extracted: with region load data gathering-device, the data of region load collecting computer collection are extracted to send into be arranged in the data warehouse software of region load collecting computer for every 5 minutes automatically and stores, and send into demand history data computer, the network load data of concrete memory space have: network load, week, festivals or holidays, time, temperature, humidity, rainfall amount, typhoon, sandstorm, heavy rain, ice damage special weather, the GDP value of Grid, whether the size of population has the accident affecting load, event category delimit and provide affect load number percent stored in regional power grid load data load prediction historical data,
3) data preparation, cleaning, matching correlation parameter and load curve relation: the data that step 1) is gathered and step 2) data extracted arrange, revise, clean, remove bad data, ensure that data are effective;
4) load prediction data is extracted: extract load prediction desired data with short-term load forecasting instrument, specifically comprise week, festivals or holidays, temperature, humidity, rainfall amount, typhoon, sandstorm, heavy rain, ice damage special weather, the GDP value of Grid, whether the size of population, have the accident affecting load, and event category delimited and provided the percent data affecting load;
5) load prediction: with short-term load forecasting instrument prediction load desired data, at the data record that the data warehouse retrieval storing load prediction basic data is identical with data, and the load data extracting its correspondence is as predicted load, form the load prediction curve that load is corresponding with the time.
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CN107918639A (en) * | 2017-10-19 | 2018-04-17 | 广东电网有限责任公司云浮供电局 | Based on electric power big data main transformer peak load forecasting method and data warehouse |
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