CN104318322B - Festivals or holidays load forecasting method based on lunar date - Google Patents
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Abstract
The present invention relates to a kind of festivals or holidays load forecasting method based on lunar date, belong to power-system short-term load forecasting technical field, the method comprising the steps of：S1：M days working days before n red-letter day and red-letter day are chosen with history of forming data, red-letter day load curve is predicted according to selected historical data, wherein, the working day does not include day off, and the red-letter day is Chinese Traditional Agricultural severe and migratory arthralgia day；S2：Holiday and the holiday of prediction load curve where choosing the non-date in red-letter day related to historical data, wherein, the holiday is the day off connected with red-letter day, and the selection of the holiday is the holiday that the distance red-letter day identical date intervals in history are selected according to the date intervals in holiday to be predicted and red-letter day；S3：Red-letter day load curve and holiday load curve are connected, overlapping region is smoothed, festivals or holidays curve prediction result is obtained.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of festivals or holidays load forecasting method based on lunar date, belong to power-system short-term load pre-
Survey technology field.
Background technology
Modern power network structure is increasingly sophisticated, Power System Interconnection is more and more wider, has gradually formed with remote, heavy load, great Qu
Bulk power grid with the characteristics of networking.Load prediction is an important field of research in modern power systems subject, is meeting society
Extremely important effect has all been played in terms of meeting demand and guarantee power grid security economical operation.With power system reform
Deepen constantly, the whole society increasingly improves to power network and whole power industry safety, the requirement of energy-conservation, economy, Efficient Operation.
Although in the only one day red-letter day of China, can be all adjusted substantially with adjacent weekend, one is formed 3 days or so
Small long holidays, relative to May Day, this Gregorian calendar red-letter day on New Year's Day, the Dragon Boat Festival, mid-autumn etc. China traditional festival there is stronger red-letter day
Lunar calendar attribute, both lunar calendar red-letter day this day where day be often whole holiday during load turning point.
Because Chinese tradition festivals or holidays (are commonly referred to as small long holidays, tradition section of the festivals or holidays comprising the China such as the Dragon Boat Festival, mid-autumn
Day and the day off being connected with the traditional festival, the day off are the holiday connected with traditional festival or formed after taking off
Holiday) social action of the people varies widely relative to normal day, festivals or holidays load level relatively normal day is born
Lotus level typically has decline by a relatively large margin, while shape difference is also very significantly, it is necessary to for festivals or holidays using uniqueness
Forecasting Methodology carries out festivals or holidays prediction, to improve festivals or holidays predictablity rate.
Electric load during festivals or holidays is typically relatively low, and load is easily by various random fluctuation factors and potential interference
The influence of factor so that some are for there is the Forecasting Methodology of good accuracy to be also difficult to the prediction knot being more satisfied with normal day
Really.
Current festivals or holidays Load Forecast Algorithm is mostly employed with reference to historical years holiday load and normal daily load phase
The range of decrease of ratio is come the Forecasting Methodology of the load level for following festivals or holidays of extrapolating, and such a method has two kinds of deficiencies：
1st, the load level before festivals or holidays generally requires manually to select a designated date, when the day is by external factor
When influence has sudden load change, there is into mistake in the load range of decrease for causing to calculate festivals or holidays；
2nd, the unified prediction in each day during traditional festivals or holidays load forecasting method carries out festivals or holidays, not in view of due to adjusting
Whole festivals or holidays load variations trend in the range of festivals or holidays where not caused red-letter day caused by the difference of different times is not
Together, although preferable, each daily load curve change that integral load level is predicted during ultimately resulting in the festivals or holidays for predicting and
Trend is not but right, or even the problems such as load recovers in advance occurs.
The content of the invention
It is an object of the invention to provide a kind of the scientific, intensive of achievable grid dispatching management, lean, and carry
The security of high operation of power networks, realizes the festivals or holidays load forecasting method based on lunar date of significant economic benefit.
To achieve the above object, the present invention is adopted the following technical scheme that：A kind of festivals or holidays load based on lunar date is pre-
Survey method, including step：
S1：M days working days before n red-letter day and red-letter day are chosen with history of forming data, according to selected history number
It is predicted that red-letter day load curve, wherein, the working day does not include day off, and the red-letter day is Chinese Traditional Agricultural severe and migratory arthralgia day；
S2：Holiday and the holiday of prediction load curve where choosing the non-date in red-letter day related to historical data, wherein, it is described
Holiday is the day off connected with red-letter day, and the selection of the holiday is to be gone through according to the selection of the date intervals in holiday to be predicted and red-letter day
The holiday of the distance red-letter day identical date intervals in history；
S3：Red-letter day load curve and holiday load curve are connected, overlapping region is smoothed, festivals or holidays are obtained
Curve prediction result.
Further, the step S1 is specifically included：
Choose m working days evidence before n red-letter day and red-letter day；
Load level before section is calculated, and the load level before section is calculated according to m days annual load levels, by the i-th (i=
1,2 ..., m) each day peak load P of dayimaxAverage, as the load level before section, calculation formula is：
The history red-letter day load level range of decrease is calculated, and calculates the peak load P on the day of the red-letter day in history each yearymaxBefore section
The ratio coefficient of load level is as load range of decrease coefficient, calculation formula：Y=1,2 ...,
n；
History Spring Festival holidays daily load per-unit curve, the load P by n red-letter day per moment pointytWith perunit base value PymaxCompare
Per-unit curve is obtained, calculation formula is：Lyt=Pyt/Pymax, y=1,2 ..., n, t=1,2 ..., b；
Spring Festival holidays preload level calculation is predicted, was calculated according to m days load levels before prediction year (n+1) section before the prediction Spring Festival holidays
Load level, (i=1,2 ..., m) each day peak load P (n+1) imax of day averages, are used as negative before section by i-th
Lotus level, calculation formula is：
Red-letter day load level predicts that the range of decrease system in each year constitutes sequence q1, q2..., qy(y=1,2 ..., n), by this
The red-letter day range of decrease coefficient in the prediction year that sequence is obtained by linear extrapolationAnd range of decrease coefficient and section preload by calculating
The red-letter day load level base value that level is predicted year is calculated, and calculation formula is：
Red-letter day per-unit curve is predicted, n red-letter day load per-unit curve is carried out smooth bent as prediction red-letter day in year perunit
Line, calculation formula is：
α is smoothing factor, can on (0,1) interval value；
Red-letter day load curve forecasting, predicts the outcome according to prediction red-letter day load level and is born with red-letter day per-unit curve prediction red-letter day
Lotus curve, calculation formula is：
Further, the step S2 specifically includes following steps：
S21：Choose holiday and red-letter day in related to historical data place holiday on non-date in red-letter day, rejecting historical law
Date intervals and holiday to be predicted and red-letter day date intervals incongruent time, historical data is reorganized, according to reorganization
Historical data, calculate the load level P of the holiday in non-red-letter day(n+1)maxAnd per-unit curve
S22：Load curve forecasting is carried out to the holiday in above-mentioned non-red-letter day, predicted the outcome and perunit according to prediction load level
Curve prediction holiday load curve, calculation formula is：
Further, the step S21 specifically includes following steps：
S211：Rule is determined during holiday where the non-date in red-letter day
The holiday in non-red-letter day and the day space before in red-letter day are calculated, -1 is designated as if section the previous day, if section one day after
For+1, by that analogy；
S212：Historical law incongruent time is rejected, historical data is reorganized
Rejected in n historical dates the time for not possessing Holiday Dates interval properties to be predicted, according to what is reorganized
Historical data, calculates the load level P of non-holiday in red-letter day(n+1)maxAnd per-unit curve
Further, algorithm is used when carrying out curve perunit and prediction, respectively before b point curves in the step S3
Respectively extend k time point afterwards, form the curve of b+2k point, the curve that predicts the outcome on two adjacent dates just has 2k point to exist
It is to overlap on time dimension；Go the average value of overlapping value to be predicted the outcome for the final of each curve, carry out curve smoothing and linking
To obtain festivals or holidays curve.
Further, the red-letter day load curve and holiday load curve use 96 point curves.
By such scheme, the present invention at least has advantages below：Scheduling unit can be improved by the Forecasting Methodology of the present invention
Door controls the ability of power network, improves the scheduling level of whole power network, realizes the scientific, intensive of grid dispatching management, lean
Change, improve the security of operation of power networks, realize significant economic benefit.
Described above is only the general introduction of technical solution of the present invention, in order to better understand the technological means of the present invention,
And can be practiced according to the content of specification, below with presently preferred embodiments of the present invention and coordinate accompanying drawing describe in detail as after.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the schematic flow sheet of the festivals or holidays load forecasting method of the invention based on lunar date.
Embodiment
With reference to the accompanying drawings and examples, the embodiment to the present invention is described in further detail.Implement below
Example is used to illustrate the present invention, but is not limited to the scope of the present invention.
Fig. 1 is referred to, a kind of festivals or holidays load forecasting method based on lunar date shown in the present embodiment includes step
S1 to S3.
S1：M days working days before n red-letter day and red-letter day are chosen with history of forming data, according to selected history number
It is predicted that red-letter day load curve, wherein, the working day does not include day off, and the red-letter day is the biography of the China such as the Dragon Boat Festival, mid-autumn
Unite lunar calendar red-letter day.Herein it should be noted that：What the day off was formed comprising red-letter day, normal holiday at weekend and after taking off
Holiday and such as May Day, Gregorian calendar red-letter day on New Year's Day, the working day that working day is formed for the normal day of duty or after taking off.The step
Specifically include：
S11：M working days evidence before n lunar calendar red-letter day and lunar calendar red-letter day is chosen, wherein, n, m can be by artificial
Setting.For example, current date is on May 30th, 2014, the Dragon Boat Festival is on June 2nd, 2014 (lunar calendar early May five), and the Dragon Boat Festival has a holiday or vacation
For on May 31st, 2014, on June 1st, 2014, on June 2nd, 2014, wherein, on June 2nd, 2014 is needs the Chinese agriculture chosen
Severe and migratory arthralgia day, on May 31st, 2014, on June 1st, 2014 are holiday, i.e. day off, are not included in selected working day, institute
The working day of selection is a few days ago working day on May 31st, 2014.
S12：Load level before section is calculated
The load level before section is calculated according to annual m days load levels, (i=1,2 ..., m) each day of day is most by i-th
Big load PimaxAverage, as the load level before section, calculation formula is：
S13：The history red-letter day load level range of decrease is calculated
Calculate the peak load P on the day of the red-letter day in history each yearymaxRatio coefficient with the load level before section is as negative
Lotus range of decrease coefficient, calculation formula is：Y=1,2 ..., n；
S14：History Spring Festival holidays daily load per-unit curve
Load P by n red-letter day per moment pointytWith perunit base value Pymax(using history each year in above-mentioned steps S13
Red-letter day on the day of peak load) compared to per-unit curve is obtained, calculation formula is：Lyt=Pyt/Pymax, y=1,2 ..., n, t=
1,2 ..., 96.
S15：Predict Spring Festival holidays preload level calculation
The load level predicted before the Spring Festival holidays is calculated according to m days load levels before prediction year (n+1) section, by i-th (i=1,
2 ..., m) each day peak load P of day(n+1)imaxAverage, as the load level before section, calculation formula is：
S16：Red-letter day load level is predicted
The range of decrease system in each year constitutes sequence q1, q2..., qy(y=1,2 ..., n), linear extrapolation is passed through by the sequence
The red-letter day range of decrease coefficient in the prediction year obtainedAnd the range of decrease coefficient and section preload level by calculating are predicted year
Red-letter day load level base value calculate, calculation formula is：
S17：Red-letter day per-unit curve is predicted
N red-letter day load per-unit curve is carried out smoothly as prediction red-letter day in year per-unit curve, calculation formula is：α is smooth
Coefficient, can on (0,1) interval value；
S18：Red-letter day load curve forecasting
Predicted the outcome according to prediction red-letter day load level and predict red-letter day load curve, calculation formula with red-letter day per-unit curve
For：
In this step S1, the part order between each step can be exchanged, and such as step S17 is placed on before step S15.
S2：Holiday and the holiday of prediction load curve where choosing the non-date in red-letter day related to historical data, wherein, it is described
Holiday is the day off connected with red-letter day, and the selection of the holiday is to be gone through according to the selection of the date intervals in holiday to be predicted and red-letter day
The holiday of the distance red-letter day identical date intervals in history.The step is specifically included：
S21：Choose holiday and red-letter day in related to historical data place holiday on non-date in red-letter day, rejecting historical law
Date intervals and holiday to be predicted and red-letter day date intervals incongruent time, historical data is reorganized, according to reorganization
Historical data, calculate the load level P of non-holiday in red-letter day(n+1)maxAnd per-unit curveStep S21 is in detail：
S211：Rule is determined during holiday where the non-date in red-letter day
The holiday in non-red-letter day and the day space before in red-letter day are calculated, -1 is designated as if section the previous day, if section one day after
Be designated as+1, by that analogy, for example, on June 2nd, 2014 be the Dragon Boat Festival, holiday be on May 31st, 2014, on June 1st, 2014, its
In, it is designated as on May 31st, 2014 being designated as -2 on June 1st, -2,2014；
S212：Historical law incongruent time is rejected, historical data is reorganized
The time for not possessing Holiday Dates interval properties to be predicted is rejected in n historical dates.For example, prediction is included in year
Holiday before one red-letter day, then need to reject in historical years, red-letter day is the historical years of first day, it is the 2nd day to retain red-letter day
Later all times.According to the historical data reorganized, the load level P of non-holiday in red-letter day is calculated(n+1)maxAnd perunit
Curve
S22：Carry out the holiday load curve forecasting in non-red-letter day
Predicted the outcome according to prediction load level and predict holiday load curve with per-unit curve, calculation formula is：
S3：Red-letter day load curve and holiday load curve are connected, overlapping region is smoothed, festivals or holidays are obtained
Curve prediction result.The purpose of this step is：Because the load curve in each day is independent prediction, but load has continuation in itself
And continuity, it is therefore desirable to the progress that predicted the outcome to each day is smooth and is connected.
Algorithm is used when carrying out curve perunit and prediction in the step S4, is respectively extended before and after 96 point curves respectively
At k time point, the curve of 96+2k point is formed, the curve that predicts the outcome on two adjacent dates just has 2k point in time dimension
It is to overlap on degree；Go the average value of overlapping value to be predicted the outcome for the final of each curve, carry out curve smoothing and linking to obtain
Red-letter day curve.
In the present embodiment, the red-letter day load curve and holiday load curve use 96 point curves.Really, at other
In embodiment, in addition to selecting 96 point curves, it is also an option that other curves.
Illustrate the beneficial effect that the method for the present invention is brought with instantiation below.
Carry out load forecast work reduction grid company operating cost and improve before power equipment operational efficiency
Carry；It is that grid company adapts to requirement of the market economy, it is ensured that corporate investment returns and improved the element task of effectiveness of operation.Electric power is needed
Ask and whether accurate predict the outcome, not only have influence on power grid security reliable power supply, and have influence on the production warp of enterprises of managing electric wire netting
Seek decision-making and effectiveness of operation.
In electric power under the big situation of market development, power network short-term load forecasting is not only safe, the economy of power system
Operation provides safeguard, and is also layout operation plan, power supply plan, the basis of trading program under market environment.At the same time, electric power
The introducing in market to the accuracy of load prediction, real-time, reliability and it is intelligent propose higher requirement, current electricity at different levels
Short-term load forecasting is all classified as an important performance assessment criteria of various regions work by net company.
Short-term load forecasting is that power system improves security, the important means of economy.Load prediction is from known
The constraints such as electric load change and meteorology influential on this set out, and explore between power load and major influence factors
Inner link and development and change rule, advance prediction is made to following power load.In order to predict electricity needs exactly.
By taking 129,200,000 kilowatts of load level as an example, load prediction precision improves one percentage point, the direct benefit of generation
It can calculate as follows：
Unit：Wan Yuan, ten thousand kilowatt hours
| Project | Reduce electric quantity loss | Reduce electricity charge loss | Reduce quality loss | Reduce power purchase loss | Save Electricity Investment |
| Ration the power supply | 15504 | 9302 | 155040 | ||
| Investment | 723520 | ||||
| Power purchase | 46512 |
Wherein：Ration the power supply by 20 days, daily 6 hours, electricity price for industrial uses was calculated according to 0.6 yuan/kwh, 10 yuan/kwh of the output value；Investment
Calculated by the 5000 yuan/kw that generates electricity, 600 yuan/kw of power network；Power purchase valency presses 0.3 yuan/kwh, 4 months time, calculates within daily 10 hours.
By above table, from the point of view of direct economic benefit angle, this Forecasting Methodology contributes to grid company more reasonable
Ground arrangement, distribute supply of electric power ability rationally, effectively implement ordered electric, reduce power networks risk, while ensuring to realize enterprise
The maximization of industry, social benefit.
In summary, the ability that power network is controlled by traffic department is improved by above-mentioned Forecasting Methodology, improves whole power network
Scheduling level, can realize the scientific, intensive of grid dispatching management, lean, improve the security of operation of power networks, realize
Significant economic benefit.
Described above is only the preferred embodiment of the present invention, is not intended to limit the invention, it is noted that for this skill
For the those of ordinary skill in art field, without departing from the technical principles of the invention, can also make it is some improvement and
Modification, these improvement and modification also should be regarded as protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. a kind of festivals or holidays load forecasting method based on lunar date, it is characterised in that：Including step：
S1：M days working days before n red-letter day and red-letter day are chosen with history of forming data, it is pre- according to selected historical data
Red-letter day load curve is surveyed, wherein, the working day does not include day off, and the red-letter day is Chinese Traditional Agricultural severe and migratory arthralgia day；
S2：Holiday and the holiday of prediction load curve where choosing the non-date in red-letter day related to historical data, wherein, the holiday
For the day off connected with red-letter day, the selection of the holiday is to be selected according to the date intervals in holiday to be predicted and red-letter day in history
Apart from the holiday of the red-letter day identical date intervals；
S3：Red-letter day load curve and holiday load curve are connected, overlapping region is smoothed, festivals or holidays curve is obtained
Predict the outcome；
The step S1 is specifically included：
Choose m working days evidence before n red-letter day and red-letter day；
Load level before the history Spring Festival holidays is calculated, and the m days load levels annual according to history calculate the load water before the history Spring Festival holidays
It is flat, by the i-th (i=1,2 ..., m) the peak load P of dayimaxAverage, as the load level before the history Spring Festival holidays, calculate public
Formula is：
The history red-letter day load level range of decrease is calculated, and calculates the peak load P on the day of the red-letter day in history each yearymaxWith the load before section
The ratio coefficient of level is as load range of decrease coefficient, calculation formula： Y=1,2 ..., n；
History Spring Festival holidays daily load per-unit curve, by load P of the n red-letter day per moment point tytOn the day of red-letter day in history each year
Peak load PymaxCompared to acquisition per-unit curve, calculation formula is：Lyt=Pyt/Pymax, y=1,2 ..., n, t=1,2 ..., b；b
=96；
Spring Festival holidays preload level calculation is predicted, the load before the prediction Spring Festival holidays is calculated according to m days load levels before the section in prediction year n+1
Level, by the i-th (i=1,2 ..., m) the peak load P of day(n+1)imaxAverage, as the load level before the prediction Spring Festival holidays,
Calculation formula is：
Red-letter day load level predicts that the range of decrease coefficient in each year constitutes sequence q1, q2..., qy(y=1,2 ..., n), the sequence is led to
Cross the red-letter day range of decrease coefficient that linear extrapolation obtains prediction yearAnd the prediction year range of decrease coefficient by calculating and the prediction Spring Festival holidays
The red-letter day load level base value that preload level is predicted year is calculated, and calculation formula is：
Red-letter day per-unit curve is predicted, n red-letter day load per-unit curve is carried out to smooth be used as and predicts red-letter day in year per-unit curve, meter
Calculating formula is： α
For smoothing factor, can on (0,1) interval value；
Red-letter day load curve forecasting, predicts the outcome bent with per-unit curve red-letter day, load prediction red-letter day according to prediction red-letter day load level
Line, calculation formula is：
2. the festivals or holidays load forecasting method according to claim 1 based on lunar date, it is characterised in that：The step
S2 specifically includes following steps：
S21：Holiday where the non-date in red-letter day related to historical data is chosen, the date in holiday and red-letter day in historical law is rejected
Interval and holiday to be predicted and red-letter day date intervals incongruent time, historical data is reorganized, according to going through for reorganizing
History data, calculate the load level Q of the holiday in non-red-letter day(n+1)maxAnd per-unit curve
S22：Load curve forecasting is carried out to the holiday in above-mentioned non-red-letter day, predicted the outcome and per-unit curve according to prediction load level
Holiday load curve is predicted, calculation formula is：
3. the festivals or holidays load forecasting method according to claim 2 based on lunar date, it is characterised in that：The step
S21 specifically includes following steps：
S211：Rule is determined during holiday where the non-date in red-letter day
The holiday in non-red-letter day and the day space before in red-letter day are calculated, -1 is designated as if section the previous day, is+1 one day after if section,
By that analogy；
S212：Historical law incongruent time is rejected, historical data is reorganized
Rejected in n historical dates the time for not possessing Holiday Dates interval properties to be predicted, according to the history reorganized
Data, calculate the load level Q of non-holiday in red-letter day(n+1)maxAnd per-unit curve
4. the festivals or holidays load forecasting method according to claim 1 based on lunar date, it is characterised in that：The step
Algorithm is used when carrying out curve perunit and prediction in S3, respectively the k time point of each extension before and after b point curves, forms b+
The curve of 2k point, the curve that predicts the outcome on two adjacent dates just has 2k point to be coincidence on time dimension；Take weight
The average value of folded value predicts the outcome for the final of each curve, carries out curve smoothing and linking to obtain festivals or holidays curve.
5. the festivals or holidays load forecasting method according to claim 1 based on lunar date, it is characterised in that：The red-letter day
Load curve and holiday load curve use 96 point curves.
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