CN104239971A - Spatial load forecasting error evaluation method based on multi-scale spatial resolution - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a spatial load forecasting error evaluation method based on the multi-scale spatial resolution. The method is characterized by comprising the steps that a power geographic information system is set, two kinds of load cells are generated under power load spatial resolutions of different scales in the power geographic information system, and the load cells are called cells for short; a load density index method is applied to spatial load forecasting of an area to be measured, and a load forecasting error is calculated according to a predicted value and a real value; based on the multi-scale spatial resolution analysis technology, the affiliation membership between the two kinds of cells is judged by defining variables of the cells, and the spatial error influence value is calculated according to the distance of a certain cell and the other cells and the amplitude error of the load predicated value; the predicated error influence value is compared with a difference value between the capacity of corresponding power equipment or facility and the actual load, an error evaluation index is set, and the spatial load forecasting error is evaluated.

Description

A kind of Spatial Load Forecasting error assessment method based on multiscale space resolution

Technical field

The present invention relates to the Spatial Load Forecasting field in urban distribution network planning, is a kind of Spatial Load Forecasting error assessment method based on multiscale space resolution.

Background technology

Spatial Load Forecasting (Spatial Load Forecasting, SLF), as the basis of urban distribution network planning, not only needs the following payload determining Nei Ge community, urban distribution network planning region, also needs the distribution predicting this load.Only be improved the accuracy of Spatial Load Forecasting, construction and the use of transformer station, feeder line, switchgear etc. could be instructed more exactly, make the development of electrical network and run more rationally economical.

Spatial Load Forecasting error refers to the deviation between numerical values recited and space distribution thereof predicting load and actual load, has obvious duality.

Locus, load place is predicted if do not consider, and relative error, absolute error, absolute error mean value (the Average Absolute Value of only computational prediction load amplitude, AAV), absolute error root-mean-square valve (Root Mean Square, RMS) carrys out evaluation and foreca effect is then sufficient not.Because traditional predicated error analysis generally believes that the amplitude error of load prediction results is less, the adverse effect caused Power System Planning is also less; But actual SLF result is also relevant with the space error predicted the outcome on the impact of Power System Planning, by mistake extent and the space distribution thereof of namely predicting the outcome has larger impact to the capacity of power equipment, facility, scale, placement position, the planning of time of putting into operation.

Summary of the invention

The object of the invention is, a kind of methodological science, rationally, a kind of simple, practical Spatial Load Forecasting error assessment method based on multiscale space resolution are provided.

Realizing the technical scheme that the object of the invention adopts is, a kind of Spatial Load Forecasting error assessment method based on multiscale space resolution, and it is characterized in that, it comprises the following steps:

1) GIS for electric power is set up

In GIS platform, the satellite photo in region to be measured is carried out longitude and latitude registration and form base figure, be position and the service area layer thereof that background sets up secondary substation respectively with base figure, 10kV feeder line and service area layer thereof, the service area layer of power supply administration and power supply branch office;

2) electric load spatial resolution

(1) I space-like resolution

The total area of power supply area is S, and the area of each power supply area is respectively S ₁, S ₂..., S _n, n is the total number of power supply area; Make k ₁=S ₁/ S, k ₂=S ₂/ S ..., k _n=S _n/ S, has r _kn={ (1/ (k ₁s), 1/ (k ₂s) ..., 1/ (k _ns)) }, then r is claimed _knfor (k ₁, k ₂..., k _n) metric space resolution; Now r _knbeing an ordered series of numbers, for portraying one group of size, irregular community such as not, and being defined as I space-like resolution;

Wherein: S is the total area of power supply area, S ₁, S ₂..., S _nbe respectively the area of each power supply area, n is the total number of power supply area, k ₁, k ₂..., k _nbe respectively the area of each power supply area and the ratio of the power supply area total area, r _knfor (k ₁, k ₂..., k _n) metric space resolution;

But for the identical power supply area of difference sequence, corresponding I space-like resolution is diverse, and this states inconsistent problem with regard to having occurred to the spatial resolution in same region to be measured; In the process of statement SREL, set up the uniform rules about power supply area sequence: first, obtain the approximate geometric center (x, y) of each power supply area respectively, with the approximate geometric center of power supply area, the lower left corner for initial point, set up rectangular coordinate system for this reason; Then, by (x+y) order from small to large, is sorted in power supply area; If certain several power supply area (x+y) is equal, then by x order from small to large, is sorted in power supply area; Finally, I space-like resolution is asked for by the sequence of gained power supply area; Thisly determine that the method for spatial resolution solves inconsistent problem is stated to the spatial resolution in same region to be measured, be called for short WT-XP method;

Wherein: (x, y) is the latitude and longitude coordinates of each power supply area geometric center in electric power GIS;

(2) II space-like resolution

The total area of power supply area is S, and each power supply area such as is at the regular shape of size, and square, rectangle or hexagon, area is S ₀, make k=S ₀/ S, has r _k=1/ (kS),

$C={\left[\begin{array}{cccc}{r}_k& r_k& \·\·\·& r_k\\ r_k& r_k& \·\·\·& r_k\\ \·\·\·& \·\·\·& \·\·\·& \·\·\·\\ r_k& r_k& \·\·\·& r_k\end{array}\right]}_{m\×n}$

Now r _kbe a numerical value, C is used for portraying the size rule community such as a group, and is defined as II space-like resolution;

Wherein: S is the total area of power supply area, S ₀for the area of the power supply area of the size regular shape such as each, k is the power supply area area of size regular shape and the ratio of the power supply area total area such as each, and m is the line number of matrix, and n is matrix column number;

3) cellular is generated

Divide region to be measured to generate cellular with the service area of power equipment, facility, power supply unit respectively, and the cellular of these sizes such as is not called I class cellular;

According to etc. the regular grid of size divide region to be measured to generate cellular, and these cellulars are called II class cellular;

4) space error is asked for

Use the II class cellular of district load density index method to region to be measured to carry out Spatial Load Forecasting, and ask for space error according to its predicted load and load actual value,

e＝L _y-L _s (1)

Wherein: e is the error of " region to be measured " cellular load prediction results, and L is cellular load, L _sfor the load actual value of region to be measured cellular, the meaning of behalf reality, L _yfor the predicted load of region to be measured cellular, the meaning of y representative prediction;

5) flag variable is set up

In order to judge that certain II class cellular (i, j) belongs to the service area of which secondary substation, setting up flag variable F (i, j), seeing formula (2),

Wherein: (i, j) is the ranks at II class cellular place, and i is the line number at II class cellular place, and j is the columns at II class cellular place,

F (i, j) is to judge that II class cellular (i, j) belongs to the service area of which secondary substation and the flag variable set up;

Consider that some II class cellular is on multiple secondary substation service area boundary, in order to judge that these II class cellulars belong to the service area of which secondary substation, set up corresponding judgment rule: complete the prerequisite of sequence at secondary substation service area under, II class cellular (i, j) crossing with n secondary substation service area, the area of overlapping part is respectively s ₁, s ₂..., s _n, then

(1) at max{s ₁, s ₂..., s _n}=s _itime, this II class cellular belongs to the service area of i-th secondary substation;

(2) at max{s ₁, s ₂..., s _n}=s _i=...=s _jtime, this II class cellular belongs to secondary substation service area and to sort preceding secondary substation service area;

Wherein: s is the area of II class cellular and secondary substation service area overlapping part, s ₁, s ₂..., s _nbe respectively II class cellular (i, j) and the 1st, 2 ..., the area of n secondary substation service area overlapping part, n is the sum of secondary substation,

S _i, s _jbe respectively the area of service area overlapping part of II class cellular (i, j) and i-th, a j secondary substation;

6) membership probability function is built

Judge each II class cellular by which secondary substation is powered respectively according to flag variable, add up the probability whether any two II class cellulars are powered by same secondary substation, utilization index function carries out matching to statistics, and then obtain the membership probability function that any two II class cellulars are powered by same secondary substation, see formula (3);

$p=f\left(d\right)=a\·e^{{-(b\·d)}^2}---\left(3\right)$

Wherein: p is the probability of being powered by same secondary substation of cellular (m, n) and cellular (i, j), f is the function of Probability p about distance d, and a, b are correlation parameter, and d is cellular (m, n) with cellular (i, j) distance between, m, i are respectively cellular (m, n), cellular (i, j) line number at place, n, j are respectively the columns at cellular (m, n), cellular (i, j) place;

7) error effect value is asked for

Space error value according to membership probability function f (d) and each II class cellular can obtain II class cellular (m, n) space error is to any II class cellular (i, j) error effect value E (i, j), any cellular (i, j) error effect value E (i, j) refers to that the error of all II class cellulars is to the impact of cellular (i, j) predicated error;

$E(i,j)=\underset{m=1}{\overset{M}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}\underset{n=1}{\overset{N}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}[f\left(\sqrt{{(m-i)}^2+{(n-j)}^2}\right)\·e(m,n)]/T---\left(4\right)$

$T=\underset{m=1}{\overset{M}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}\underset{n=1}{\overset{N}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}f\left(\sqrt{m^2+n^2}\right)---\left(5\right)$

Wherein: E is Spatial Load Forecasting error effect value, E (i, j) be any II class cellular (i, j) error effect value, e (m, n) is II class cellular (m, n) space error, T is probability function sum, and M is total line number of II class cellular, and N is total columns of II class cellular;

8) based on the Plan mode of error effect value

Under the resolution of II space-like, the specified of secondary substation transformer is gained merit for P _n, actual load maximal value is P _max, the error effect value of i-th I class cellular is E _i, specified difference DELTA P that is meritorious and actual load maximal value is

ΔP＝P _N-P _max (6)

(1) if E _i< Δ P, then illustrate that the error of Spatial Load Forecasting result has exceeded the anti-by ability of secondary substation, the Spatial Load Forecasting resultant error of secondary substation can not have an impact to original planning;

(2) if E _i> Δ P, then illustrate that the error of Spatial Load Forecasting result has exceeded the anti-by ability of secondary substation, the Spatial Load Forecasting resultant error of this secondary substation will produce considerable influence to original planning, needs to reformulate programme;

Wherein: P _nfor the specified of secondary substation transformer is gained merit, P _maxfor actual load maximal value, Δ P is the specified meritorious difference with actual load maximal value of secondary substation transformer, E _ibe the error effect value of i-th I class cellular, i=1,2 ..., n, n are the sum of secondary substation.

A kind of Spatial Load Forecasting error assessment method based on multiscale space resolution of the present invention, by setting up WT-XP rule, achieves the consistance to spatial resolution statement; By definition flag variable, build membership probability function, use multiscale space resolution technique, the quantitative test that the error achieving a cellular has an impact to other cellular load, there is methodological science, rationally, the advantage such as simple, practical.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is I class electric load spatial resolution schematic diagram;

Fig. 2 is each I class cellular and Geometric center coordinates schematic diagram thereof;

Fig. 3 is the II class electric load spatial resolution schematic diagram under large scale;

Fig. 4 is the II class electric load spatial resolution schematic diagram under small scale;

Fig. 5 is membership probability function figure;

Fig. 6 is the space distribution schematic diagram of error effect value in 2009.

Embodiment

The invention will be further described to utilize drawings and Examples below.

With reference to Fig. 1-Fig. 6, in Fig. 1, show Chuanying District, Jilin, according to secondary substation service area, use WT-XP rule statement I space-like resolution: in Fig. 2, show the process realizing WT-XP rule; The yardstick showing II class electric load spatial resolution in Fig. 3 is comparatively large, and resolution is lower; The yardstick showing II class electric load spatial resolution in Fig. 4 is less, and resolution is higher; Fig. 5 give the spacing of two II class cellulars and they be under the jurisdiction of an I cellular simultaneously probability between relation; Under Fig. 6 gives assigned I I space-like resolution, the distribution situation of SLF resultant error influence value in 2009 of Chuanying District, Jilin scope.

A kind of Spatial Load Forecasting error assessment method based on multiscale space resolution of the present invention, comprises the following steps:

1) set up GIS for electric power, its English name is Geographic Information System, GIS

In Geographic Information System (GIS) software platform, the satellite photo of Jilin is carried out longitude and latitude registration and form base figure, be position and the service area layer thereof that background sets up secondary substation respectively with base figure, 10kV feeder line and service area layer thereof, the service area layer of power supply administration and power supply branch office, the powering area of each secondary substation in Chuanying District, Jilin, in table 1;

The powering area of table 1 secondary substation

2) electric load spatial resolution, its English name is Spatial Resolution of Electric Load, SREL

(1) I space-like resolution

First, obtain the approximate geometric center (x, y) of each power supply area respectively, with the approximate geometric center of power supply area, the lower left corner for initial point, set up rectangular coordinate system; Then, by (x+y) order from small to large, is sorted in power supply area; If certain several power supply area (x+y) is equal, then by x order from small to large, is sorted in power supply area; In table 2; Finally, I class SREL is asked for by the sequence of gained power supply area, r _k7={ 1/7.098,1/4.372,1/4.196,1/2.128,1/2.151,1/2.014,1/1.385};

The latitude and longitude coordinates of secondary substation and sequence in table 2 electric power GIS

(2) II space-like resolution

According to the square net of the length of side 0.3km of the sizes such as 792, ask for II class SREL, namely

$C={\left[\begin{array}{cccc}1/0.09& 1/0.09& \&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;& 1/0.09\\ 1/0.09& 1/0.09& \&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;& 1/0.09\\ \&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;& \&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;& \&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;& \&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;\\ 1/0.09& 1/0.09& \&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;& 1/0.09\end{array}\right]}_{33\&times;24}$

3) cellular is generated

Region to be measured is divided to generate I class cellular by the service area of secondary substation;

Region to be measured is divided to generate II class cellular according to the square net of the sizes such as length of side 0.3km;

4) space error is asked for

Use district load density index method to carry out Spatial Load Forecasting to " region to be measured ", and ask for space error according to its predicted load and load actual value;

e＝L _y-L _s (7)

Wherein: e is the error of " region to be measured " cellular load prediction results, and L is cellular load, L _sfor the load actual value of " region to be measured " cellular, the meaning of behalf reality, L _yfor the predicted load of " region to be measured " cellular, the meaning of y representative prediction; Associated loadings data are in table 3 ~ 5;

The load actual value (MW) of table 3 Chuanying District II class cellular in 2009

The predicted load (MW) of table 4 Chuanying District II class cellular in 2009

The space error (MW) of table 5 Chuanying District II class cellular in 2009

5) flag variable is set up

In order to judge that certain II class cellular (i, j) belongs to the service area of which secondary substation, set up flag variable F (i, j):

Wherein: (i, j) is the ranks at II class cellular place, and i is the line number at II class cellular place, and j is the columns at II class cellular place,

F (i, j) is to judge that II class cellular (i, j) belongs to the service area of which secondary substation and the flag variable set up;

Consider that some II class cellular is on multiple secondary substation service area boundary, in order to judge that these II class cellulars belong to the service area of which secondary substation, set up corresponding judgment rule: complete the prerequisite of sequence at secondary substation service area under, arbitrary II class cellular is crossing with n secondary substation service area, and the area of overlapping part is respectively S ₁, S ₂..., S _n, then

(1) at max{S ₁, S ₂..., S _n}=S _itime, this II class cellular belongs to the service area of i-th secondary substation;

(2) at max{S ₁, S ₂..., S _n}=S _i=...=S _jtime, this II class cellular belongs to secondary substation service area and to sort preceding secondary substation service area;

Wherein: s is the area of II class cellular and secondary substation service area overlapping part,

S ₁, s ₂..., s _nbe respectively II class cellular (i, j) and 1,2 ..., the area of n secondary substation service area overlapping part, n is the sum of secondary substation;

6) membership probability function is built

Judge each II class cellular by which secondary substation is powered respectively according to flag variable, add up the probability whether any two II class cellulars are powered by same secondary substation, utilization index function carries out matching to statistics, and then obtain the membership probability function that any two II class cellulars are powered by same secondary substation, see formula (9);

$p=f\left(d\right)=a\&CenterDot;e^{{-(b\&CenterDot;d)}^2}---\left(9\right)$

Wherein: p is the probability of being powered by same secondary substation of cellular (m, n) and cellular (i, j), f is the function of Probability p about distance d, and a, b are correlation parameter, and d is cellular (m, n) with (i, j) distance between, m, i are respectively cellular (m, n), cellular (i, j) line number at place, n, j are respectively the columns at cellular (m, n), cellular (i, j) place;

The correlation parameter of Chuanying District secondary substation probability function in 2009 is in table 6;

The correlation parameter of table 6 probability function

7) error effect value is asked for

Space error value according to membership probability function f (d) and each II class cellular can obtain II class cellular (m, n) space error is to any II class cellular (i, j) II class error effect value E (i, j), any cellular (i, j) error effect value E (i, j) refers to that the error of all II class cellulars is to the impact of cellular (i, j) predicated error;

$E(i,j)=\underset{m=1}{\overset{M}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}\underset{n=1}{\overset{N}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}[f\left(\sqrt{{(m-i)}^2+{(n-j)}^2}\right)\&CenterDot;e(m,n)]/T---\left(10\right)$

$T=\underset{m=1}{\overset{M}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}\underset{n=1}{\overset{N}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}f\left(\sqrt{m^2+n^2}\right)---\left(11\right)$

Wherein: E is Spatial Load Forecasting error effect value, E (i, j) be any II class cellular (i, j) error effect value, e (m, n) is II class cellular (m, n) space error, T is probability function sum, and M is total line number of II class cellular, and N is total columns of II class cellular;

Said method is equally applicable to asking for of 10kV feeder line rank SLF resultant error influence value;

Utilize formula (7) ~ (11) to calculate the error effect value of Chuanying District II class cellular in 2009, the results are shown in Table 7;

The error effect value (MW) of table 7 Chuanying District II class cellular in 2009

8) based on the Plan mode of error effect value

Under the resolution of II space-like, suppose that the specified of secondary substation transformer is gained merit for P _n, actual load maximal value is P _max, the error effect value of i-th I class cellular is E _i, then specified difference DELTA P that is meritorious and actual load maximal value is

ΔP＝P _N-P _max (12)

(1) if E _i< Δ P, then illustrate that the error of Spatial Load Forecasting result has exceeded the anti-by ability of secondary substation, the Spatial Load Forecasting resultant error of secondary substation can not have an impact to original planning;

(2) if E _i> Δ P, then illustrate that the error of Spatial Load Forecasting result has exceeded the anti-by ability of secondary substation, the Spatial Load Forecasting resultant error of this secondary substation will produce considerable influence to original planning, needs to reformulate programme;

Wherein: P _nfor the specified of secondary substation transformer is gained merit, P _maxfor actual load maximal value, Δ P is the specified meritorious difference with actual load maximal value of secondary substation transformer, E _ibe the error effect value of i-th I class cellular, i=1,2 ..., n, n are the sum of secondary substation;

The index of correlation of Chuanying District secondary substation in 2009 is in table 8;

The index of correlation of table 8 Chuanying District secondary substation in 2009

By the interpretation of result of his-and-hers watches 8, the II class error effect value E of arctic change in 2009 can be found _ibe greater than the corresponding specified meritorious difference DELTA P with load actual value, anti-by ability beyond corresponding secondary substation of the Spatial Load Forecasting resultant error of this secondary substation above-mentioned is described, original planning cannot meet the demand of following load.

Specific embodiment of the present invention has made detailed explanation to content of the present invention, but does not limit to the present embodiment, any apparent change that those skilled in the art's enlightenment according to the present invention is done, and all belongs to the scope of rights protection of the present invention.

Claims (1)

1., based on a Spatial Load Forecasting error assessment method for multiscale space resolution, it is characterized in that, it comprises the following steps:

1) GIS for electric power is set up

In GIS platform, the satellite photo in region to be measured is carried out longitude and latitude registration and form base figure, be position and the service area layer thereof that background sets up secondary substation respectively with base figure, 10kV feeder line and service area layer thereof, the service area layer of power supply administration and power supply branch office;

2) electric load spatial resolution

(1) I space-like resolution

The total area of power supply area is S, and the area of each power supply area is respectively S ₁, S ₂..., S _n, n is the total number of power supply area; Make k ₁=S ₁/ S, k ₂=S ₂/ S ..., k _n=S _n/ S, has r _kn={ (1/ (k ₁s), 1/ (k ₂s) ..., 1/ (k _ns)) }, then r is claimed _knfor (k ₁, k ₂..., k _n) metric space resolution; Now r _knbeing an ordered series of numbers, for portraying one group of size, irregular community such as not, and being defined as I space-like resolution;

Wherein: S is the total area of power supply area, S ₁, S ₂..., S _nbe respectively the area of each power supply area, n is the total number of power supply area, k ₁, k ₂..., k _nbe respectively the area of each power supply area and the ratio of the power supply area total area, r _knfor (k ₁, k ₂..., k _n) metric space resolution;

But for the identical power supply area of difference sequence, corresponding I space-like resolution is diverse, and this states inconsistent problem with regard to having occurred to the spatial resolution in same region to be measured; In the process of statement SREL, set up the uniform rules about power supply area sequence: first, obtain the approximate geometric center (x, y) of each power supply area respectively, with the approximate geometric center of power supply area, the lower left corner for initial point, set up rectangular coordinate system for this reason; Then, by (x+y) order from small to large, is sorted in power supply area; If certain several power supply area (x+y) is equal, then by x order from small to large, is sorted in power supply area; Finally, I space-like resolution is asked for by the sequence of gained power supply area; Thisly determine that the method for spatial resolution solves inconsistent problem is stated to the spatial resolution in same region to be measured, be called for short WT-XP method;

Wherein: (x, y) is the latitude and longitude coordinates of each power supply area geometric center in electric power GIS;

(2) II space-like resolution

The total area of power supply area is S, and each power supply area such as is at the regular shape of size, and square, rectangle or hexagon, area is S ₀, make k=S ₀/ S, has r _k=1/ (kS),

$C={\left[\begin{array}{cccc}{r}_k& r_k& \&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;& r_k\\ r_k& r_k& \&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;& r_k\\ \&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;& \&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;& \&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;& \&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;\\ r_k& r_k& \&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;& r_k\end{array}\right]}_{m\&times;n}$

Now r _kbe a numerical value, C is used for portraying the size rule community such as a group, and is defined as II space-like resolution;

Wherein: S is the total area of power supply area, S ₀for the area of the power supply area of the size regular shape such as each, k is the power supply area area of size regular shape and the ratio of the power supply area total area such as each, and m is the line number of matrix, and n is matrix column number;

3) cellular is generated

Divide region to be measured to generate cellular with the service area of power equipment, facility, power supply unit respectively, and the cellular of these sizes such as is not called I class cellular;

According to etc. the regular grid of size divide region to be measured to generate cellular, and these cellulars are called II class cellular;

4) space error is asked for

Use the II class cellular of district load density index method to region to be measured to carry out Spatial Load Forecasting, and ask for space error according to its predicted load and load actual value,

e＝L _y-L _s (1)

Wherein: e is the error of " region to be measured " cellular load prediction results, and L is cellular load, L _sfor the load actual value of region to be measured cellular, the meaning of behalf reality, L _yfor the predicted load of region to be measured cellular, the meaning of y representative prediction;

5) flag variable is set up

In order to judge that certain II class cellular (i, j) belongs to the service area of which secondary substation, setting up flag variable F (i, j), seeing formula (2),

Wherein: (i, j) is the ranks at II class cellular place, and i is the line number at II class cellular place, and j is the columns at II class cellular place,

F (i, j) is to judge that II class cellular (i, j) belongs to the service area of which secondary substation and the flag variable set up;

Consider that some II class cellular is on multiple secondary substation service area boundary, in order to judge that these II class cellulars belong to the service area of which secondary substation, set up corresponding judgment rule: complete the prerequisite of sequence at secondary substation service area under, II class cellular (i, j) crossing with n secondary substation service area, the area of overlapping part is respectively s ₁, s ₂..., s _n, then

(1) at max{s ₁, s ₂..., s _n}=s _itime, this II class cellular belongs to the service area of i-th secondary substation;

(2) at max{s ₁, s ₂..., s _n}=s _i=...=s _jtime, this II class cellular belongs to secondary substation service area and to sort preceding secondary substation service area;

Wherein: s is the area of II class cellular and secondary substation service area overlapping part, s ₁, s ₂..., s _nbe respectively II class cellular (i, j) and the 1st, 2 ..., the area of n secondary substation service area overlapping part, n is the sum of secondary substation,

S _i, s _jbe respectively the area of service area overlapping part of II class cellular (i, j) and i-th, a j secondary substation;

6) membership probability function is built

Judge each II class cellular by which secondary substation is powered respectively according to flag variable, add up the probability whether any two II class cellulars are powered by same secondary substation, utilization index function carries out matching to statistics, and then obtain the membership probability function that any two II class cellulars are powered by same secondary substation, see formula (3);

$p=f\left(d\right)=a\&CenterDot;e^{{-(b\&CenterDot;d)}^2}---\left(3\right)$

Wherein: p is the probability of being powered by same secondary substation of cellular (m, n) and cellular (i, j), f is the function of Probability p about distance d, and a, b are correlation parameter, and d is cellular (m, n) with cellular (i, j) distance between, m, i are respectively cellular (m, n), cellular (i, j) line number at place, n, j are respectively the columns at cellular (m, n), cellular (i, j) place;

7) error effect value is asked for

Space error value according to membership probability function f (d) and each II class cellular can obtain II class cellular (m, n) space error is to any II class cellular (i, j) error effect value E (i, j), any cellular (i, j) error effect value E (i, j) refers to that the error of all II class cellulars is to the impact of cellular (i, j) predicated error;

$E(i,j)=\underset{m=1}{\overset{M}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}\underset{n=1}{\overset{N}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}[f\left(\sqrt{{(m-i)}^2+{(n-j)}^2}\right)\&CenterDot;e(m,n)]/T---\left(4\right)$

$T=\underset{m=1}{\overset{M}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}\underset{n=1}{\overset{N}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}f\left(\sqrt{m^2+n^2}\right)---\left(5\right)$

Wherein: E is Spatial Load Forecasting error effect value, E (i, j) be any II class cellular (i, j) error effect value, e (m, n) is II class cellular (m, n) space error, T is probability function sum, and M is total line number of II class cellular, and N is total columns of II class cellular;

8) based on the Plan mode of error effect value

Under the resolution of II space-like, the specified of secondary substation transformer is gained merit for P _n, actual load maximal value is P _max, the error effect value of i-th I class cellular is E _i, specified difference DELTA P that is meritorious and actual load maximal value is

ΔP＝P _N-P _max (6)

(1) if E _i< Δ P, then illustrate that the error of Spatial Load Forecasting result has exceeded the anti-by ability of secondary substation, the Spatial Load Forecasting resultant error of secondary substation can not have an impact to original planning;

(2) if E _i> Δ P, then illustrate that the error of Spatial Load Forecasting result has exceeded the anti-by ability of secondary substation, the Spatial Load Forecasting resultant error of this secondary substation will produce considerable influence to original planning, needs to reformulate programme;

Wherein: P _nfor the specified of secondary substation transformer is gained merit, P _maxfor actual load maximal value, Δ P is the specified meritorious difference with actual load maximal value of secondary substation transformer, E _ibe the error effect value of i-th I class cellular, i=1,2 ..., n, n are the sum of secondary substation.