CN104217261A - Operating state risk early-warning method for main transformer system - Google Patents
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Abstract
本发明涉及一种基于数据挖掘的主站系统运行状态风险预警方法，该方法包括：根据主站运行状态指标体系实现运行信息的在线采集与存储；基于指标分析模型对海量运行信息进行数据清洗、裁剪和融合，实现多种指标的关联分析；基于数据挖掘总结主站系统运行状态，分析变化规律，形成趋势分析报告；利用知识库对可能发生的异常情况推送预警并提供处理意见。本发明充分利用主站系统运行产生的大量数据，提取有用信息，挖掘系统运行规律，实现系统运行状态的全面感知和运行隐患的提前预警，解决了主站系统运维依赖事后被动监视问题，提高了运维人员应急处置水平，增强了主站系统风险防御能力，进一步保障了电网运行安全性。
The invention relates to a data mining-based risk warning method for the operating status of a master station system. The method includes: realizing online collection and storage of operating information according to the operating status index system of the master station; performing data cleaning on massive operating information based on an index analysis model, Tailoring and fusion to achieve correlation analysis of various indicators; based on data mining, summarize the operating status of the main station system, analyze the changing rules, and form a trend analysis report; use the knowledge base to push early warnings and provide processing suggestions for possible abnormal situations. The present invention makes full use of a large amount of data generated by the operation of the main station system, extracts useful information, excavates system operation rules, realizes comprehensive perception of system operation status and early warning of operational hidden dangers, solves the problem that the operation and maintenance of the main station system relies on post-event passive monitoring, and improves The emergency response level of operation and maintenance personnel has been improved, the risk defense capability of the main station system has been enhanced, and the safety of power grid operation has been further guaranteed.
Description
技术领域technical field
本发明涉及电网调度自动化领域的一种方法，具体讲涉及一种主站系统运行状态风险预警方法。The invention relates to a method in the field of power grid dispatching automation, in particular to a risk early warning method for a master station system operating state.
背景技术Background technique
随着电网的发展，尤其是自愈智能电网的发展，要求连续不断的在线自我评估，以预测电网可能出现的问题，发现已经存在或正在发展的问题并立即采取措施加以控制或纠正，以确保电网的可靠性、安全性、电能质量和效率，调度主站系统重要性逐渐提高。主站系统运行伴随产生大量的包含调度运行和管理的数据，而现有的监控系统仅侧重于实时分析、告警系统运行的断面数据，缺乏对大量历史信息的有效分析评估，无法充分利用电力系统海量的数据资源及时发现系统存在的安全隐患。With the development of power grids, especially the development of self-healing smart grids, continuous online self-assessment is required to predict possible problems in the power grid, find existing or developing problems and take immediate measures to control or correct them, so as to ensure The reliability, security, power quality and efficiency of the power grid, and the importance of the dispatching master station system are gradually increasing. The operation of the main station system is accompanied by a large amount of data including scheduling operation and management, while the existing monitoring system only focuses on real-time analysis and section data of alarm system operation, lacks effective analysis and evaluation of a large amount of historical information, and cannot make full use of the power system. Massive data resources are used to detect potential security risks in the system in a timely manner.
崭露头角的一门新兴学科数据挖掘技术能够利用积累下来的海量数据为研究对象,找出隐藏在这些数据背后有用的知识,从而为科学决策提供有力的依据。A new emerging discipline, data mining technology, can use the accumulated massive data as the research object to find out the useful knowledge hidden behind these data, so as to provide a strong basis for scientific decision-making.
因此，需要提供一种将数据挖掘技术用于主站系统运行产生的海量历史数据挖掘主站系统运行潜在规律，增强调度主站系统运行状态的趋势分析和预警能力，高进和提升主站系统风险防御水平。Therefore, it is necessary to provide a method of using data mining technology for the massive historical data generated by the operation of the master station system to mine the potential laws of the master station system operation, enhance the trend analysis and early warning capabilities of the dispatch master station system's operating status, and advance and upgrade the master station system. Risk defense level.
发明内容Contents of the invention
针对现有技术的不足，本发明的目的是提供一种主站系统运行状态风险预警方法，该方法解决了主站系统运行状态依赖事后被动监视、不能及时发现系统安全隐患的问题，提升了主站系统风险防御水平。Aiming at the deficiencies of the prior art, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a risk early warning method for the operation status of the main station system. The risk defense level of the station system.
本发明的目的是采用下述技术方案实现的：The object of the present invention is to adopt following technical scheme to realize:
本发明提供一种主站系统运行状态风险预警方法，其改进之处在于，所述方法基于数据挖掘，包括下述步骤：The present invention provides a risk early warning method for the operation status of a master station system, the improvement of which is that the method is based on data mining and includes the following steps:
(1)在线采集并存储主站运行信息；(1) Online collection and storage of master station operation information;
(2)对主站运行信息进行汇总整理；(2) Summarize and organize the operation information of the master station;
(3)对主站系统运行状态进行趋势分析与评估；(3) Conduct trend analysis and evaluation on the operating status of the master station system;
(4)对主站系统运行状态进行风险预警。(4) Carry out risk warning for the operation status of the master station system.
进一步地，所述步骤(1)中，根据主站运行状态指标体系在线采集并存储主站运行信息；采集的主站运行信息包括前置信息、系统资源信息、应用状态信息和系统一致性信息，存储的主站运行信息包括实时采集数据和历史告警，采样频度为5分钟/次。Further, in the step (1), the main station operation information is collected and stored online according to the main station operation status index system; the collected main station operation information includes pre-information, system resource information, application status information and system consistency information , the stored master station operation information includes real-time collected data and historical alarms, and the sampling frequency is 5 minutes/time.
进一步地，所述步骤(2)中包括：基于主站运行状态指标分析模型对主站运行信息进行数据分类、清洗、裁剪和融合，实现多种指标的关联定量分析，包括下述子步骤：Further, the step (2) includes: performing data classification, cleaning, cutting and fusion on the operation information of the master station based on the analysis model of the master station operation state index, so as to realize the associated quantitative analysis of various indexes, including the following sub-steps:
(2-1)对采集的主站运行信息进行如下分类：前置工况、误码率统计、前置切换统计、前置控制、多源数据一致性、数据不刷新统计、资源使用率统计、投入率统计、网络工况、网络统计、消息堆积统计、僵尸进程统计、数据库一致性、时钟一致性，变化数据传输时间和数据库统计，并对采集的指标分别设置阈值门槛；(2-1) Classify the collected operating information of the master station as follows: pre-working conditions, bit error rate statistics, pre-switching statistics, pre-control, multi-source data consistency, data non-refresh statistics, resource usage statistics , Input rate statistics, network working conditions, network statistics, message accumulation statistics, zombie process statistics, database consistency, clock consistency, change data transmission time and database statistics, and set thresholds for the collected indicators respectively;
(2-2)按照年、月、日时间维度从历史库中提取历史数据，对无效数据进行清理和剪裁；(2-2) Extract historical data from the historical database according to the time dimensions of year, month, and day, and clean and trim invalid data;
(2-3)按照步骤(2-1)中所述分类对每个采集指标进行时间段计算，统计主站系统对该指标的满足情况；(2-3) According to the classification described in the step (2-1), each collection index is carried out to calculate the time period, and the statistics master station system satisfies the index;
(2-4)运用统计学对运行量进行关联定量分析，计算表示关联程度的运行量与影响因素间的相关系数。(2-4) Use statistics to carry out correlation quantitative analysis on the operation volume, and calculate the correlation coefficient between the operation volume and the influencing factors that represent the degree of correlation.
进一步地，所述步骤(3)包括下述步骤：Further, said step (3) includes the following steps:
(3-1)基于数据挖掘技术从关联定量分析结果中归纳主站运行状态指标变化趋势规律，形成知识库；(3-1) Based on the data mining technology, summarize the changing trend of the main station's operating status indicators from the results of the associated quantitative analysis to form a knowledge base;
(3-2)对主站系统运行状态趋势进行分析，形成分析评估报告。(3-2) Analyze the running status trend of the master station system and form an analysis and evaluation report.
进一步地，所述步骤(4)包括下述步骤：Further, said step (4) includes the following steps:
(4-1)利用知识库总结主站系统运行状态发生的异常情况并推送预警；(4-1) Utilize the knowledge base to summarize the abnormal situation in the operating status of the main station system and push the early warning;
(4-2)针对异常情况提供包括下述信息的处理意见：检查系统相关进程句柄释放情况，检查系统消息总线运行情况，检查相关进程写库的一致性和同步性、检查前置端口连接情况。(4-2) Provide processing advice including the following information for abnormal situations: check the release of system-related process handles, check the operation of the system message bus, check the consistency and synchronization of related processes writing to the library, and check the front-end port connection .
与现有技术比，本发明达到的有益效果是：Compared with prior art, the beneficial effect that the present invention reaches is:
1.本发明提供的基于数据挖掘的主站系统运行状态风险预警方法，有效利用主站系统海量运行数据，实现对主站系统运行规律的统计和趋势分析，实现了主站系统运行隐患的提前预警；1. The data mining-based risk warning method for the operation status of the main station system provided by the present invention effectively utilizes the massive operation data of the main station system to realize the statistics and trend analysis of the operation rules of the main station system, and realizes the early warning of hidden dangers in the operation of the main station system early warning;
2.本发明提供的方法，解决了主站运行依赖事后被动监视问题，增强了主站系统风险防御能力，进一步保障了电网运行安全。2. The method provided by the present invention solves the problem that the operation of the main station depends on post-event passive monitoring, enhances the risk defense capability of the main station system, and further ensures the safety of the power grid operation.
3.本发明提供的方法，利用了主站系统运行产生的海量历史数据挖掘主站系统运行潜在规律，进一步增强了调度主站系统对于已经存在或正在发展的问题并立即采取措施加以控制或纠正，大大提升了电网的可靠性、安全性、电能质量和效率。3. The method provided by the present invention utilizes the massive historical data generated by the operation of the master station system to mine the potential laws of the master station system operation, and further enhances the dispatching master station system to take immediate measures to control or correct existing or developing problems , greatly improving the reliability, security, power quality and efficiency of the power grid.
附图说明Description of drawings
图1是本发明提供的主站系统运行状态风险预警方法示意图。FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of a risk warning method for a master station system operating state provided by the present invention.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
下面结合附图对本发明的具体实施方式作进一步的详细说明。The specific implementation manners of the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
本发明提供的基于数据挖掘的主站系统运行状态风险预警方法示意图如图1所示，包括下述步骤：The schematic diagram of the data mining-based master station system operating state risk early warning method provided by the present invention is shown in Figure 1, including the following steps:
(1)根据主站运行状态指标体系实现运行信息的在线采集与存储：(1) Realize the online collection and storage of operation information according to the operation status index system of the master station:
采集的数据包括前置信息、系统资源信息、应用状态信息和系统一致性信息，存储的数据包括实时采集数据和历史告警，采样频度为5分钟/次。The collected data includes pre-information, system resource information, application status information, and system consistency information. The stored data includes real-time collected data and historical alarms. The sampling frequency is 5 minutes/time.
(2)主站运行状态信息汇总整理：基于指标分析模型对海量运行信息进行数据分类、清洗、裁剪和融合，实现多种指标的关联定量分析，包括下述子步骤：(2) Summary and sorting of master station operation status information: Based on the index analysis model, data classification, cleaning, tailoring and fusion of massive operation information are carried out to realize the associated quantitative analysis of various indicators, including the following sub-steps:
(2-1)对采集的指标进行分类，包括前置工况、误码率统计、前置切换统计、前置控制、多源数据一致性、数据不刷新统计、资源使用率统计、投入率统计、网络工况、网络统计、消息堆积统计、僵尸进程统计、数据库一致性、时钟一致性，变化数据传输时间、数据库统计，分别设置阈值门槛；(2-1) Classify the collected indicators, including pre-working conditions, bit error rate statistics, pre-switching statistics, pre-control, multi-source data consistency, data non-refresh statistics, resource usage statistics, input rate Statistics, network working conditions, network statistics, message accumulation statistics, zombie process statistics, database consistency, clock consistency, change data transmission time, database statistics, respectively set threshold thresholds;
(2-2)按照年、月、日时间维度从历史库中提取历史数据，对无效数据进行清理、剪裁；；(2-2) Extract historical data from the historical database according to the time dimensions of year, month, and day, and clean up and tailor invalid data;
(2-3)按照步骤(2-1)中所述分类对每个采集指标进行时间段计算，统计主站系统对该指标的满足情况。(2-3) Calculate the time period for each collection index according to the classification described in step (2-1), and make statistics on the satisfaction of the index by the master station system.
(2-4)运用统计学方法对任意两个及以上的指标进行关联定量分析，计算运行量与影响因素间的相关系数，用来描述其相关联程度。(2-4) Use statistical methods to conduct quantitative analysis on the correlation between any two or more indicators, and calculate the correlation coefficient between the operation volume and the influencing factors to describe the degree of correlation.
(3)对主站系统运行状态进行趋势分析与评估：基于数据挖掘总结主站系统运行状态，分析变化规律，形成趋势分析报告，包括下述子步骤：(3) Perform trend analysis and evaluation on the operating status of the master station system: summarize the operating status of the master station system based on data mining, analyze the changing rules, and form a trend analysis report, including the following sub-steps:
(3-1)基于数据挖掘技术从关联定量分析结果中归纳主站运行状态指标变化趋势规律，形成知识库；(3-1) Based on the data mining technology, summarize the changing trend of the main station's operating status indicators from the results of the associated quantitative analysis to form a knowledge base;
(3-2)对主站系统运行趋势进行分析，形成分析评估报告。(3-2) Analyze the running trend of the main station system and form an analysis and evaluation report.
(4)利用知识库对可能发生的异常情况推送预警并提供处理意见，包括下述子步骤：(4) Use the knowledge base to push early warnings and provide processing suggestions for possible abnormal situations, including the following sub-steps:
(4-1)利用知识库总结主站系统运行状态可能发生的异常情况并推送预警；(4-1) Use the knowledge base to summarize possible abnormalities in the operating status of the master station system and push early warnings;
(4-2)针对异常情况提供处理意见，所述处理意见包括检查系统相关进程句柄释放情况，检查系统消息总线运行情况，检查相关进程写库的一致性和同步性、检查前置端口连接情况。(4-2) Provide processing opinions for abnormal situations, the processing opinions include checking the release of system-related process handles, checking the operation of the system message bus, checking the consistency and synchronization of related processes writing to the library, and checking the connection status of the front port .
最后应当说明的是：以上实施例仅用以说明本发明的技术方案而非对其限制，尽管参照上述实施例对本发明进行了详细的说明，所属领域的普通技术人员依然可以对本发明的具体实施方式进行修改或者等同替换，这些未脱离本发明精神和范围的任何修改或者等同替换，均在申请待批的本发明的权利要求保护范围之内。Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention and not to limit them. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those of ordinary skill in the art can still implement the present invention Any modification or equivalent replacement that does not deviate from the spirit and scope of the present invention is within the protection scope of the claims of the pending application of the present invention.
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