CN101726568A - Early-warning prediction method for water environment safety - Google Patents
Early-warning prediction method for water environment safety Download PDFInfo
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- CN101726568A CN101726568A CN200910223843A CN200910223843A CN101726568A CN 101726568 A CN101726568 A CN 101726568A CN 200910223843 A CN200910223843 A CN 200910223843A CN 200910223843 A CN200910223843 A CN 200910223843A CN 101726568 A CN101726568 A CN 101726568A
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Abstract
The invention discloses an early-warning prediction method for water environment safety, which comprises the following steps: performing space-time multi-dimensional analysis on monitoring information acquired from a water environment; establishing a hazard rating threshold early-warning index according to the data acquired by the model analysis to form water environment safety early-warning rating and warning-situation comprehensive assessment data; and establishing a water environment safety early-warning basic database and gradient and abrupt early-warning prediction system models of the water environment safety, and establishing a data adapter between the water environment safety early-warning basic database and the early-warning prediction system models so as to visually express the prediction results of the models and implement full-process monitoring for the early-warning evolution of the water environment safety. Aiming at the complexity of the water environment and the multi-source isomerism of the water environment monitoring information, the method establishes an effective environment monitoring multi-source isomeric data fusion technology framework and a method to form an early-warning prediction system of the water environment safety so as to provide important theoretical direction for water environment management, and the method has broad application prospect.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to water environment safety early warning field, particularly a kind of early-warning prediction method for water environment safety that merges based on multi-source heterogeneous monitoring information.
Background technology
Along with the rising of socioeconomic fast development and resource environment pressure, water environment safety has been subjected to serious threat, and unsafe factor of many environment and zone manifest.If the early warning predictive ability does not catch up with, just may when the burst contamination accident occur, be caught unprepared, tackle not properly, bungle the chance of winning a battle, bring serious threat and infringement for people's life and health safety, economic life operation and social stability and Environmental security, even cause great social influence.
Environmental monitoring is as " sentry " and " knowledge " of water environment management, its purpose is to talk clearly regional environmental quality and pollution source discharging present situation, grasps water environment present situation and development trend thereof, accurately early warning unexpected environmental accident, analysis and judgement culprit, harm, initiatively providing decision-making foundation for environmental management, is to carry out water environment safety early warning forecasting techniques research basic technology means.Yet along with the diversification day by day of environmental monitoring means, incident is that Monitoring Data becomes increasingly complex, and the magnanimity Monitoring Data exists redundant, complementary, the also conflicting or competition of possibility, how to handle the Monitoring Data of these redundancies, complementation, seem particularly important for accurate assessment quality of water environment.In the face of the complicacy of water environment and the multi-source heterogeneous property of Monitoring Data, multiple dimensioned and features such as phasic property, ambiguity, inexactness, uncertainty for a long time, traditional water environmental monitoring information fusion method can not satisfy actual demand, therefore how comprehensively, in time, excavate, grasp and handle magnanimity environmental monitoring information exactly and become water environment safety early warning predictive ability and promote the urgent technical barrier that solves.
The purpose of water environment early warning mainly is by the research to the water environment early warning, real-time prediction water environment situation of change, make the decision support of decision-making section according to system, decision water environment developing direction, to avoid occurring serious water pollution, guarantee water safety and environmental health, prevent or alleviate of the influence of following possible pollution source, thereby reach the unification of social benefit, environmental benefit, economic benefit society and biosphere generation.At present, the subject matter that exists of water environment early warning both at home and abroad be the state representation key element owe system, comprehensively and prediction and integrated evaluating method remain further discussion.
Now monitoring water environment information is handled, purpose is to set up mapping relations (model) between multi-source monitoring data and water quality parameter concentration.For the monitoring water environment information of multi-source, there is redundancy, complementary between ground monitoring data and the remote sensing multiband radiation data, therefore, regard the monitoring water environment information processing as a multi-source data fusion treatment process.The monitoring water environment information fusion technology still has the following disadvantages: (1) existing monitoring water environment information fusion technology only has the fusion of one-level or secondary, and the realization of multistage fusion is still waiting research.(2) when facing the practical application of monitoring water environment complexity, may use multiple information fusion algorithm.Therefore, need to use infer or inference technology is handled that system selects only algorithm automatically when running into concrete fusion and ask, handles.(3) real-time of Complex Water Environment monitoring is still waiting to solve, and the knowledge acquisition of complex information still is a bottleneck problem, thereby the expression of knowledge affects the real-time that inference speed influences system.
Summary of the invention
Technical matters to be solved by this invention is the multi-source heterogeneous property at the complicacy of water environment and monitoring water environment information, multiple dimensioned and phasic property for a long time, ambiguity, inexactness, features such as uncertainty, with the environmental monitoring information fusion is research object, set up multi-source heterogeneous data fusion technological frame of effective environmental monitoring and method system, the dynamic early warning forecast model of research and development water environment safety, the early warning technology system of the coupled simulation model investigation and the information processing technology makes up multi-source heterogeneous, multiple dimensioned, visual, dynamic water environment safety early warning prognoses system.
Early-warning prediction method for water environment safety of the present invention is based on the water environment early-warning prediction method of multi-source heterogeneous information fusion, and it may further comprise the steps:
(1) will carry out the space-time multidimensional analysis from the monitoring information of water environment collection, and merge multi-source heterogeneous information and carry out data analysis with this.
(2) data that draw according to described model analysis are set up hazard rating threshold value warning index, adopt the master control key element in the clear and definite water environment risk of the method source of multiple goal support and D_S evidence theory, test and the sensitivity of analyzing different warning indexs form water environment safety early warning classification and alert comprehensive assessment data.
(3) set up the gradual change type of water environment safety early warning basic database and water environment safety and the formula early warning forecast system model that suddenlys change, to reflect the influence of quality of water environment determinacy evolution rule and uncertain factor to its developing state.
(4) set up data adapter unit between water environment safety early warning basic database and the early warning forecast system model, the time dependent rule of Simulated Water environmental quality, with visual expression model prediction result, long dynamically expression of time water environment early warning classification by simulation develops, the different space distributions of degree of risk constantly of water environment safety that show directly perceived, the relevant information of the advanced warning grade of quick clear and definite water environment, feature pollutant and water quality realizes the whole process supervision that the water environment safety early warning develops.
Early-warning prediction method for water environment safety of the present invention, the space-time multidimensional analysis in the step (1) comprise multidimensional analysis method or the statistical study function in the multi-dimensional database or the self-defining function according to demand of section, stripping and slicing; Also can adopt the master control key element in the clear and definite water environment risk of the method source of fuzzy mathematics in the step (2); Step (3) also comprises optimization, sensitivity verification and the adjustment to model parameter; Visualization technique in the step (4) comprises that GIS shows issue, and the mode and the XML technology that adopt online Dynamic Coupling Early-warning Model.
The present invention is from water environment safety early warning forecasting techniques demand and domestic and international present Research, at the complicacy of water environment and the multi-source heterogeneous property of monitoring water environment information, multiple dimensioned and phasic property for a long time, ambiguity, inexactness, features such as uncertainty, with the environmental monitoring information fusion is research object, set up multi-source heterogeneous data fusion technological frame of effective environmental monitoring and method, form water environment safety warning index system, the early warning forecasting techniques of coupled simulation model investigation and information fusion technology, realize that based on GIS Visual Dynamic expression monitoring information merges, early warning prediction achievement, structure possesses early warning information and comprehensively distinguishes with the Visual Dynamic of GIS and pass judgment on, the water environment safety early warning prognoses system of early warning grading function, provide the important theory guidance as the water environment management, had wide practical prospect.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 represents environment monitoring information emerging system structural representation;
Fig. 2 represents early-warning prediction method for water environment safety schematic flow sheet of the present invention;
Specific embodiment
With reference to the accompanying drawings, in conjunction with the embodiments early-warning prediction method for water environment safety provided by the invention is described in detail.
Early-warning prediction method for water environment safety of the present invention is based on the water environment early-warning prediction method of multi-source heterogeneous information fusion, and its overall process may further comprise the steps as shown in Figure 2:
(1) will carry out the space-time multidimensional analysis from the multidimensional analysis method of the monitoring information utilization section of water environment collection, stripping and slicing or the statistical study function the multi-dimensional database or self-defining function according to demand, and merge multi-source heterogeneous information and carry out data analysis with this.The monitoring water environment information fusion system as shown in Figure 1.Thereby obtain incident location and parameter estimation by carrying out pre-service in the information of ground on-line monitoring, remote sensing monitoring, on-the-spot emergency monitoring fast and the manual monitoring in laboratory, it is carried out feature extraction at the data verification interface, and carry out the fusion of original data-centric level, the fusion of feature center and self-organization fusion; Set up knowledge data base by sensor control and management simultaneously, and the data after will merging are carried out the filtering sorting parameter and are estimated that identification is final and arrive fusion results.
(2) data that draw according to described model analysis are set up hazard rating threshold value warning index, adopt the master control key element in the clear and definite water environment risk of the method source of multiple goal support, fuzzy mathematics or D_S evidence theory, test and the sensitivity of analyzing different warning indexs form water environment safety early warning classification and alert comprehensive assessment data.
(3) set up the gradual change type of water environment safety early warning basic database and water environment safety and the formula early warning forecast system model that suddenlys change subsequently, optimization, sensitivity verification and adjustment that model parameter is carried out are with the influence to its developing state of reflection quality of water environment determinacy evolution rule and uncertain factor.
(4) set up data adapter unit between water environment safety early warning basic database and the early warning forecast system model, the time dependent rule of Simulated Water environmental quality, show issue with GIS, and adopt the mode of online Dynamic Coupling Early-warning Model and the visual expression model prediction result of XML technology, long dynamically expression of time water environment early warning classification by simulation develops, the different space distributions of degree of risk constantly of water environment safety that show directly perceived, the advanced warning grade of quick clear and definite water environment, the relevant information of feature pollutant and water quality realizes the whole process supervision that the water environment safety early warning develops.
Claims (5)
1. early-warning prediction method for water environment safety is based on the water environment early-warning prediction method of multi-source heterogeneous information fusion, it is characterized in that: may further comprise the steps:
(1) will carry out the space-time multidimensional analysis from the monitoring information of water environment collection, and merge multi-source heterogeneous information and carry out data analysis with this;
(2) data that draw according to described model analysis are set up hazard rating threshold value warning index, adopt the master control key element in the clear and definite water environment risk of the method source of multiple goal support and D_S evidence theory, test and the sensitivity of analyzing different warning indexs form water environment safety early warning classification and alert comprehensive assessment data;
(3) set up the gradual change type of water environment safety early warning basic database and water environment safety and the formula early warning forecast system model that suddenlys change, to reflect the influence of quality of water environment determinacy evolution rule and uncertain factor to its developing state;
(4) set up data adapter unit between water environment safety early warning basic database and the early warning forecast system model, the time dependent rule of Simulated Water environmental quality, with visual expression model prediction result, long dynamically expression of time water environment early warning classification by simulation develops, the different space distributions of degree of risk constantly of water environment safety that show directly perceived, the relevant information of the advanced warning grade of quick clear and definite water environment, feature pollutant and water quality realizes the whole process supervision that the water environment safety early warning develops.
2. early-warning prediction method for water environment safety according to claim 1 is characterized in that: the space-time multidimensional analysis in the step (1) comprises multidimensional analysis method or the statistical study function in the multi-dimensional database or the self-defining function according to demand of section, stripping and slicing.
3. early-warning prediction method for water environment safety according to claim 1 and 2 is characterized in that: the master control key element that also can adopt the clear and definite water environment risk of the method source of fuzzy mathematics in the step (2).
4. according to claim 1 or 2 or 3 described early-warning prediction method for water environment safety, it is characterized in that: step (3) also comprises optimization, sensitivity verification and the adjustment to model parameter.
5. according to the described early-warning prediction method for water environment safety of claim 1 to 4, it is characterized in that: the visualization technique in the step (4) comprises that GIS shows issue, and the mode and the XML technology that adopt online Dynamic Coupling Early-warning Model.
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| CN102087729A (en) * | 2011-03-18 | 2011-06-08 | 贵州省烟草公司遵义市公司 | Method and system for quality monitoring in whole course of tobacco leaf production |
| CN102298368A (en) * | 2011-06-17 | 2011-12-28 | 中国环境科学研究院 | System for monitoring volatile organic contaminants in water source |
| CN102708520A (en) * | 2012-05-10 | 2012-10-03 | 南京国图信息产业股份有限公司 | Section gradient interpolation technology for water quality multi-index dynamic simulation |
| CN102708452A (en) * | 2012-05-09 | 2012-10-03 | 浙江大学 | Water quality analyzing/calculating service system supporting dynamic compiling |
| CN103439472A (en) * | 2013-06-14 | 2013-12-11 | 北京工商大学 | Lake-reservoir cyanobacteria water bloom recognition method based on remote sensing monitoring and evidence fusion technology improvement |
| CN104899653A (en) * | 2015-06-02 | 2015-09-09 | 北京工商大学 | Lake and reservoir cyanobacterial bloom prediction method based on expert system and cyanobacterial growth mechanism timing model |
| CN105651336A (en) * | 2016-01-25 | 2016-06-08 | 无锡点创科技有限公司 | Pollution source dynamic data monitoring system and method |
| CN106249676A (en) * | 2016-08-05 | 2016-12-21 | 浙江美纳环保科技有限公司 | A kind of water pollution control facility monitoring system based on the Internet and method thereof |
| CN106442908A (en) * | 2016-09-09 | 2017-02-22 | 厦门大学 | Water quality abnormity detection and grading alarm method based on red zebra fish stress behaviors |
| CN106918684A (en) * | 2017-02-17 | 2017-07-04 | 清华大学 | A kind of water quality pollution early warning method |
| CN107563597A (en) * | 2017-08-04 | 2018-01-09 | 南通汇聚软件科技有限公司 | The intelligent early-warning method of gross contamination emission |
| CN107609742A (en) * | 2017-08-14 | 2018-01-19 | 环境保护部华南环境科学研究所 | A kind of water environment early warning comprehensive management platform |
| CN107679665A (en) * | 2017-09-30 | 2018-02-09 | 浙江海洋大学 | A kind of ocean disaster method for early warning based on big data |
| CN109460869A (en) * | 2018-11-06 | 2019-03-12 | 北京英视睿达科技有限公司 | Water environment method for early warning and device |
| CN110716978A (en) * | 2019-08-23 | 2020-01-21 | 生态环境部华南环境科学研究所 | Mountain reservoir type water source intelligent management method |
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| CN102087729A (en) * | 2011-03-18 | 2011-06-08 | 贵州省烟草公司遵义市公司 | Method and system for quality monitoring in whole course of tobacco leaf production |
| CN102298368A (en) * | 2011-06-17 | 2011-12-28 | 中国环境科学研究院 | System for monitoring volatile organic contaminants in water source |
| CN102708452A (en) * | 2012-05-09 | 2012-10-03 | 浙江大学 | Water quality analyzing/calculating service system supporting dynamic compiling |
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| CN104899653A (en) * | 2015-06-02 | 2015-09-09 | 北京工商大学 | Lake and reservoir cyanobacterial bloom prediction method based on expert system and cyanobacterial growth mechanism timing model |
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| CN106442908A (en) * | 2016-09-09 | 2017-02-22 | 厦门大学 | Water quality abnormity detection and grading alarm method based on red zebra fish stress behaviors |
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Application publication date: 20100609 |