CN104200126B - Rapid assessment method for personnel deaths caused by landslides due to earthquake - Google Patents
Rapid assessment method for personnel deaths caused by landslides due to earthquake Download PDFInfo
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- CN104200126B CN104200126B CN201410490298.9A CN201410490298A CN104200126B CN 104200126 B CN104200126 B CN 104200126B CN 201410490298 A CN201410490298 A CN 201410490298A CN 104200126 B CN104200126 B CN 104200126B
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Abstract
Disclosed is a rapid assessment method for personnel deaths caused by landslides due to earthquake. The rapid assessment method includes: firstly, dividing a survey region into different geological areas according to geological categories and then acquiring slope data of the survey region; calculating security coefficient Fs of the geological areas and data of limited acceleration of the geological areas as well as ground motion peak acceleration and landslide risk parameters possibly causing the personnel deaths of the geological areas, and acquiring average risk parameters of the landslides of each county by taking the county as the unit; calculating population vulnerability parameters of each county, calculating reduction coefficient for areas with earthquake intensity larger than or equal to VI or the ground motion peak acceleration larger than or equal to 0.05g in the areas administered by each county, and finally calculating the number of the personnel deaths possibly caused by secondary landslides due to the earthquake. By the rapid assessment method, the situation of the personnel deaths possibly caused by secondary landslide disasters generated by the earthquake can be rapidly assessed.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of method for assessing the loss that earthquake is caused, particularly a kind of to secondary landslide caused by earthquake
The fast evaluation method of the personnel death that disaster is likely to result in.
Background technology
Landslide is the Rock And Soil on slope, under the effect such as gravity and surface water, subsoil water, along certain landslide surface entirety
A kind of phenomenon of slide downward.During violent earthquake, the landslide Secondary Geological Hazards of earthquake-induced, particularly in mountain region, hilly ground
Area, its economic loss and casualties are even also big than what earthquake was directly contributed.In CONTINENTAL AREA OF CHINA, especially landform phase
To complicated mountain area, the landslide that earthquake is caused is most commonly seen and the most strong secondary earthquake disaster of destructive power.
However, the landslide that earthquake is caused has occurs the various feature of unexpected, complicated mechanism, motion morphology, prediction is compared
It is difficult.National governments are to mitigate the landslide disaster that earthquake is caused, and all take active and effective measure.Wherein, in earthquake emergency
In system, it should be particularly mentioned that " defence secondary disaster ", by strengthening secondary disaster monitoring and warning, organizes expert carry out dangerous situation investigation,
The mode such as assessment and reinforcement, improves the emergency command of landslide disaster and rescue ability after government's reply shake, reduces the people's
Life and property loss.
In the landslide emergency commading system caused for earthquake, the landslide disaster rapid evaluation that earthquake is caused is emergent determining
The important foundation and scientific basis of plan system, if it is possible to which rapid Estimation goes out the landslide casualty situations that earthquake is caused, it is possible to be
Emergency resources demand provides reference data；Can also be according to casualties situation, formulating goods and materials medical demand and disaster relief personnel needs
Scheme is sought, the victims of the disaster is succoured and is disposed within the most short time, so that casualties level is preferably minimized.
China establishes model for Fast Seismic Disaster Assessment in the enforcement period of the ninth five-year plan, additionally, in " theory of calamity " magazine 2010 years
In article " seismic casualties rapid evaluation scale-model investigation " (Gao Huiying, Li Qingxia) in October supplementary issue of volume 25, Zuo Zheti
The appraisal procedure of earthquake centre Loss is over the ground gone out.However, the landslide disaster casualties rapid evaluation side caused with regard to earthquake
Method research is very few, in the 10th phase article " earthquake of volume 29 of October in 2010 of " Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering " magazine
Landslide disaster rapid evaluation technology and to meet an urgent need influence research " (Wang Xiuying) in, author also only proposes some Research Thinkings, but
Specific solution is not related to.It can be seen that, in existing appraisal procedure, there is no the evaluation method of landslide secondary hazards caused for earthquake
It is likely to result in effective appraisal procedure of personnel death, the fast evaluation method during being especially suitable for post-earthquake emergency response.
The content of the invention
The technical problem to be solved in the present invention is to provide a kind of earthquake causes quickly commenting for the caused personnel death in landslide
Method is estimated, so that problem noted earlier is reduced or avoided.
To solve above-mentioned technical problem, the invention provides a kind of earthquake causes the quick of caused personnel death of coming down
Appraisal procedure, it is used for after earthquake disaster occurs, may be made by seismic secondary landslide in rapid evaluation survey region
Into personnel death's quantity C, it comprises the steps,
Step A, is divided into different ground by the survey region using existing geologic map by geology classification on computers
Matter region, and obtain cohesiveness c, soil unit weight r and the internal friction angle of each geologic provinceParameter；
Step B, on computers according to 30 meters of resolution datas of DEM, using Arcgis softwares the research area is obtained
The Gradient in domain；
Step C, on computers according to formula
Safety coefficient Fs of each geologic province is obtained, β is the gradient in above formula；
Step D, on computers according to formula
ac=(FS-1)gsinβ
Obtain the limit acceleration a of each geologic provincec；
Step E, will monitor the north-south a that the station is collected during earthquakeEWWith East and West direction aNSTwo peak accelerator data,
Using formulaMeansigma methodss are tried to achieve, interpolation calculation is then carried out, the earthquake motion peak value for obtaining each geologic province adds
Speed amaxData, and obtain each geologic province a using Arcgis softwaresmax-acData；
Step F, calculates on computers the landslide for being likely to result in each geology regional population probability of death according to following equation
Dangerous parameter P1Data,
Work as amax-acWhen >=0, P is tried to achieve1=0.05-0.12 (amax-ac-0.446)2,
As above formula P1During ＜ 0, then P1Value is 0；
Work as amax-acDuring ＜ 0, then P1=0,
According to administrative division data, in units of county, try to achieve each county's Landslide hazard parameter using Arcgis softwares and put down
Average P1i, i represents the i-th county of the survey region；
Step G, calculates according to the following formula the population vulnerability parameter in each county,
P2i=(0.28-0.1Ia)5.4-0.55M, wherein,
In above formula M be magnitude, CaFor 15-59 year size of population of this county, CiFor this county population total number of persons, i represents described
I-th county of survey region；
Step H, in each county region within the jurisdiction earthquake intensity more than or equal to VI or earthquake motion peak acceleration more than etc.
In the region of 0.05g, reduction coefficient S is calculated according to the following formulaFolding：
In above formula, SAlwaysFor county's gross area, SVIFor county's earthquake intensity is more than or equal to VI or earthquake motion peak value accelerates
The area in region of the degree more than or equal to 0.05g；For the i-th county of the survey region, its reduction coefficient is SFolding i；
Step I, the people being likely to result in by seismic secondary landslide in the survey region is calculated according to following equation
Member's The dead quantity C,
A kind of earthquake provided by the present invention causes the fast evaluation method of the personnel death caused by landslide, and it can be on ground
After shake occurs, the position that rapid evaluation may be occurred by the secondary landslide disaster that earthquake causes and the personnel that it is likely to result in are dead
Die situation, be the battalion that policymaker specifies the victims of the disaster to selecting the Emergency response level for starting emergency preplan to have compared with high reference value
Rescue and provide foundation with rehousing programme.
Description of the drawings
The following drawings is only intended in schematic illustration and explanation is done to the present invention, is not delimit the scope of the invention.Wherein,
Fig. 1 is shown to cause the caused people that comes down according to a kind of earthquake of a specific embodiment of the present utility model
The geologic province of the survey region of the dead fast evaluation method of member divides figure；
Fig. 2 is the slope map of the survey region on the basis of Fig. 1；
Fig. 3 is the safety coefficient datagram on the basis of Fig. 2；
Fig. 4 is the limit acceleration figure on the basis of Fig. 3；
Fig. 5 is the earthquake motion peak acceleration figure on the basis of Fig. 1；
Fig. 6 is Fig. 4, a on the basis of 5max-acDifferential chart；
Fig. 7 is that the earthquake on the basis of Fig. 6 causes Landslide hazard Parameter Map；
Fig. 8 is that the earthquake at county level on the basis of Fig. 7 causes Landslide hazard mean parameter datagram.
Specific embodiment
In order to be more clearly understood to the technical characteristic of the present invention, purpose and effect, now illustrate that the present invention's is concrete
Embodiment.
The invention provides a kind of earthquake causes the fast evaluation method of the personnel death caused by landslide, it is used on ground
After earthquake calamity evil occurs, personnel death's quantity C being likely to result in by seismic secondary landslide in rapid evaluation survey region, its
Comprise the steps,
Step A, is divided into different ground by the survey region using existing geologic map by geology classification on computers
Matter region, and obtain cohesiveness c, soil unit weight r and the internal friction angle of each geologic provinceParameter；Different geology classifications pair
The parameter answered is as shown in the table；
| Classification | Cohesiveness (MPa) | Native unit weight (kN/m3) | Internal friction angle (°) |
| Volcanic rock | 0.22 | 27.5 | 40 |
| Metamorphic rock | 0.17 | 26.5 | 33 |
| Clastic rock | 0.1 | 25.5 | 24 |
| Carbonate rock | 0.07 | 23.5 | 16 |
| 4th is rickle | 0.05 | 21.5 | 13 |
Step B, on computers according to 30 meters of data of DEM, using Arcgis softwares the slope of the survey region is obtained
Degrees of data；
" geographical spatial data can be passed through based on 30 meters of DEM digital elevation models (Digital Elevation Model)
The ASTER GDEM of cloud " are obtained, and obtain the Gradient of the survey region using Arcgis softwares,
Step C, on computers according to formula
Safety coefficient Fs of each geologic province is obtained, β is the gradient in above formula；
According to the data that step A, B is obtained, each geology can be calculated according to above-mentioned formula in Arcgis softwares
The resolution in region is safety coefficient Fs of 30 meters of each foundation ground data cell, before the computation, can first by internal friction angle
Same unit is first scaled with gradient β, for example, Arcgis softwares need to be input into number in units of radian when trigonometric function is calculated
According to then can first by internal friction angle before calculatingRadian is scaled with gradient β to be input into.
Step D, on computers according to formula
ac=(FS-1)gsinβ
Obtain the limit acceleration a of each geologic provincec；After the safety coefficient Fs data of step C are calculated, can
The resolution for further calculating each geologic province according to above-mentioned formula in Arcgis softwares is 30 meters of each basis ground
The limit acceleration a of face data cellc。
Step E, will monitor the north-south a that the station is collected during earthquakeEWWith East and West direction aNSTwo peak accelerator data,
Using formulaMeansigma methodss are tried to achieve, interpolation calculation is then carried out, the earthquake motion peak value for obtaining each geologic province adds
Speed amaxData, and obtain each geologic province a using Arcgis softwaresmax-acData；That is, can be
The resolution that each geologic province is further calculated in Arcgis softwares is 30 meters of each foundation ground data cell
amax-acData.
Step F, on computers, the landslide for being likely to result in each geology regional population probability of death is calculated according to following equation
Dangerous parameter P1Data,
Work as amax-acWhen >=0, P is tried to achieve1=0.05-0.12 (amax-ac-0.446)2,
As above formula P1During ＜ 0, then P1Value is 0；
Work as amax-acDuring ＜ 0, then P1=0,
According to administrative division data, in units of county, try to achieve each county's Landslide hazard parameter using Arcgis softwares and put down
Average P1i, i represents the i-th county of the survey region；
The resolution obtained using step E is a of 30 meters of each foundation ground data cellmax-acData, can be with
Human mortality's probability P of each foundation ground data cell is calculated according to above-mentioned formula1Numerical value, then can be by administrative division number
According to Arcgis softwares are imported, the resolution included so as to obtain each county is the people of 30 meters of each foundation ground data cell
Mouth probability of death P1Numerical value, but and further Landslide hazard mean parameter P in each county1i,
Step G, calculates according to the following formula the population vulnerability parameter in each county,
P2i=(0.28-0.1Ia)5.4-0.55M, wherein,
In above formula M be magnitude, Ca be 15-59 year size of population of this county, CiFor this county population total number of persons, i represents institute
State the i-th county of survey region；
Step H, in each county region within the jurisdiction earthquake intensity more than or equal to VI or earthquake motion peak acceleration more than etc.
In the region of 0.05g, reduction coefficient S is calculated according to the following formulaFolding：
In above formula, SAlwaysFor county's gross area, SVIFor county's earthquake intensity is more than or equal to VI or earthquake motion peak value accelerates
The area in region of the degree more than or equal to 0.05g；For the i-th county of the survey region, its reduction coefficient is SFolding i；
Step I, the people being likely to result in by seismic secondary landslide in the survey region is calculated according to following equation
Member's The dead quantity C,
That is to say by formula
Personnel death's quantity C that seismic secondary landslide is likely to result in can be calculated.
Fig. 1 is shown to cause the caused people that comes down according to a kind of earthquake of a specific embodiment of the present utility model
The geologic province of the survey region of the dead fast evaluation method of member divides figure；Fig. 2 is the gradient of the survey region on the basis of Fig. 1
Figure；Fig. 3 is the safety coefficient datagram on the basis of Fig. 2；Fig. 4 is the limit acceleration figure on the basis of Fig. 3；Fig. 5 is on the basis of Fig. 1
Earthquake motion peak acceleration figure；Fig. 6 is Fig. 4, a on the basis of 5max-acDifferential chart；Fig. 7 is that the earthquake on the basis of Fig. 6 causes
Landslide hazard Parameter Map；Fig. 8 is that the earthquake at county level on the basis of Fig. 7 causes Landslide hazard mean parameter datagram.
Referring to shown in Fig. 1-8, illustrate by taking the Minxian County of 07 month Gansu on the 22nd in 2013, Zhang County Ms6.6 earthquakes as an example below
A kind of earthquake provided by the present invention causes the fast evaluation method of the personnel death caused by landslide.
First, as shown in figure 1, will suffer from the survey region of earthquake using existing geologic map on computers by geology classification
Different geologic provinces are divided into, and obtain cohesiveness c, soil unit weight r and the internal friction angle of each geologic provinceParameter；
Then, as shown in Fig. 2 on computers according to 30 meters of data of the DEM in the region, being obtained using Arcgis softwares
Obtain the Gradient of the survey region；
Afterwards, as shown in figure 3, on computers according to formula
Obtain safety coefficient Fs of each geologic province
Afterwards, as shown in figure 4, on computers according to formula
ac=(FS-1)gsinβ
Obtain the limit acceleration a of each geologic provincec；
Afterwards, as shown in Figure 5,6, the north-south a that the station is collected will be monitored during earthquakeEWWith East and West direction aNSTwo peak values
Acceleration information, using formulaMeansigma methodss are tried to achieve, interpolation calculation is then carried out, each geologic province is obtained
Earthquake motion peak acceleration amaxData, and obtain each geologic province a using Arcgis softwaresmax-acData；Namely
Say, the resolution that each geologic province can be further calculated in Arcgis softwares is 30 meters of each foundation ground data sheet
The a of unitmax-acData.
Afterwards, as shown in Figure 7,8, on computers, each geology regional population is likely to result according to following equation calculating dead
Die Landslide hazard parameter P of probability1Data,
Work as amax-acWhen >=0, P is tried to achieve1=0.05-0.12 (amax-ac-0.446)2,
As above formula P1During ＜ 0, then P1Value is 0；
Work as amax-acDuring ＜ 0, then P1=0,
According to administrative division data, in units of county, try to achieve each county's Landslide hazard parameter using Arcgis softwares and put down
Average P1i,
Afterwards, the population vulnerability parameter in each county is calculated according to the following formula,
P2i=(0.28-0.1Ia)5.4-0.55M, wherein,
In above formula M be magnitude, Ca be 15-59 year size of population of this county, CiFor this county population total number of persons, i represents institute
State the i-th county of survey region；
Afterwards, for earthquake intensity is more than or equal to VI or earthquake motion peak acceleration is more than or equal in each county region within the jurisdiction
The region of 0.05g, calculates according to the following formula reduction coefficient SFolding：
In above formula, SAlwaysFor county's gross area, SVIFor county's earthquake intensity is more than or equal to VI or earthquake motion peak value accelerates
Region area of the degree more than or equal to 0.05g；For the i-th county of the survey region, its reduction coefficient is SFolding i；
Finally, the personnel being likely to result in by seismic secondary landslide in the survey region are calculated according to following equation
The dead quantity C,
That is to say by formula
Personnel death's quantity C that seismic secondary landslide is likely to result in can be calculated.
It is as shown in the table after Minxian County, the correlation data calculation of Zhang County in this specific embodiment：
That is to say, a kind of earthquake provided by the present invention causes the rapid evaluation side of the personnel death caused by landslide
Method, can estimate due to this secondary earthquake caused by personnel death's number for being likely to result in of secondary landslide disaster be 67-68 people, and this
Secondary earthquake caused by 57 people that actually cause of secondary landslide disaster, that is to say, that a kind of earthquake provided by the present invention is led
The error of fast evaluation method institute assessment result of the caused personnel death in landslide is caused less than 18%, therefore, the present invention is carried
For a kind of earthquake cause come down caused by personnel death fast evaluation method can be used for Future Earthquakes disaster occur when,
The personnel death that secondary landslide disaster caused by earthquake is likely to result in is estimated.
A kind of earthquake provided by the present invention causes the fast evaluation method of the personnel death caused by landslide, and it can be on ground
After shake occurs, the position that rapid evaluation may be occurred by the secondary landslide disaster that earthquake causes and the personnel that it is likely to result in are dead
Die situation, be the battalion that policymaker specifies the victims of the disaster to selecting the Emergency response level for starting emergency preplan to have compared with high reference value
Rescue and provide foundation with rehousing programme.
It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that although the present invention is described according to the mode of multiple embodiments,
It is that not each embodiment only includes an independent technical scheme.For the sake of so narration is used for the purpose of understanding in description,
Those skilled in the art should be understood description as an entirety, and by technical scheme involved in each embodiment
Regarding as can be mutually combined into the mode of different embodiments to understand protection scope of the present invention.
Schematically specific embodiment of the invention is the foregoing is only, the scope of the present invention is not limited to.It is any
Those skilled in the art, the equivalent variations made on the premise of the design without departing from the present invention and principle, modification and combination,
The scope of protection of the invention all should be belonged to.
Claims (1)
1. a kind of earthquake causes the fast evaluation method of the personnel death caused by landslide, it is characterised in that it is used in earthquake
After disaster occurs, personnel death's quantity C being likely to result in by seismic secondary landslide in rapid evaluation survey region, its bag
Include following steps,
Step A, is divided into different geological provinces by the survey region using existing geologic map by geology classification on computers
Domain, and obtain cohesiveness c, soil unit weight r and the internal friction angle of each geologic provinceParameter；
Step B, on computers according to 30 meters of data of DEM, using Arcgis softwares the slope number of the survey region is obtained
According to；
Step C, on computers according to formula
Safety coefficient Fs of each geologic province is obtained, β is the gradient in above formula；
Step D, on computers according to formula
ac=(FS-1)g sinβ
Obtain the limit acceleration a of each geologic provincec；
Step E, will monitor the north-south a that the station is collected during earthquakeEWWith East and West direction aNSTwo peak accelerator data, using public affairs
FormulaMeansigma methodss are tried to achieve, interpolation calculation is then carried out, the earthquake motion peak acceleration of each geologic province is obtained
amaxData, and obtain each geologic province a using Arcgis softwaresmax-acData；
Step F, calculates on computers the landslide hazard for being likely to result in each geology regional population probability of death according to following equation
Property parameter P1Data,
Work as amax-acWhen >=0, P is tried to achieve1=0.05-0.12 (amax-ac-0.446)2,
As above formula P1During ＜ 0, then P1Value is 0；
Work as amax-acDuring ＜ 0, then P1=0,
According to administrative division data, in units of county, using Arcgis softwares each county's Landslide hazard mean parameter is tried to achieve
P1i, i represents the i-th county of the survey region；
Step G, calculates according to the following formula the population vulnerability parameter in each county,
P2i=(0.28-0.1Ia)5.4-0.55M, wherein,
In above formula M be magnitude, Ca be 15-59 year size of population of this county, CiFor this county population total number of persons, i represents the research
I-th county in region；
Step H, for earthquake intensity is more than or equal to VI or earthquake motion peak acceleration is more than or equal in each county region within the jurisdiction
The region of 0.05g, calculates according to the following formula reduction coefficient SFolding：
In above formula, SAlwaysFor county's gross area, SVIIt is big more than or equal to VI or earthquake motion peak acceleration for county's earthquake intensity
In the area in the region equal to 0.05g；
For the i-th county of the survey region, its reduction coefficient is SFolding i；
Step I, calculates dead by the personnel that seismic secondary landslide is likely to result in the survey region according to following equation
Die quantity C,
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| CN109243145A (en) * | 2018-07-23 | 2019-01-18 | 中国电力科学研究院有限公司 | A kind of the subregion assessment method for early warning and system of transmission line of electricity geological disaster |
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