CN104200126A - Rapid assessment method for personnel deaths caused by landslides due to earthquake - Google Patents
Rapid assessment method for personnel deaths caused by landslides due to earthquake Download PDFInfo
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- CN104200126A CN104200126A CN201410490298.9A CN201410490298A CN104200126A CN 104200126 A CN104200126 A CN 104200126A CN 201410490298 A CN201410490298 A CN 201410490298A CN 104200126 A CN104200126 A CN 104200126A
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Abstract
Disclosed is a rapid assessment method for personnel deaths caused by landslides due to earthquake. The rapid assessment method includes: firstly, dividing a survey region into different geological areas according to geological categories and then acquiring slope data of the survey region; calculating security coefficient Fs of the geological areas and data of limited acceleration of the geological areas as well as ground motion peak acceleration and landslide risk parameters possibly causing the personnel deaths of the geological areas, and acquiring average risk parameters of the landslides of each county by taking the county as the unit; calculating population vulnerability parameters of each county, calculating reduction coefficient for areas with earthquake intensity larger than or equal to VI or the ground motion peak acceleration larger than or equal to 0.05g in the areas administered by each county, and finally calculating the number of the personnel deaths possibly caused by secondary landslides due to the earthquake. By the rapid assessment method, the situation of the personnel deaths possibly caused by secondary landslide disasters generated by the earthquake can be rapidly assessed.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of method of assessing the loss that earthquake causes, the personnel death's that particularly a kind of secondary landslide disaster that earthquake is caused may cause fast evaluation method.
Background technology
Landslide is the Rock And Soil on slope, at gravity and surface water, under the effect such as underground water, along a kind of phenomenon of certain landslide surface entirety down sliding.When violent earthquake, the landslide Secondary Geological Hazards of earthquake-induced, particularly in mountain region, knob, it is also large that its economic loss and casualties even directly cause than earthquake.In CONTINENTAL AREA OF CHINA, the especially mountain area of landform relative complex, the landslide that earthquake causes is secondary earthquake disaster the most common and that destructive power is the strongest.
But, the landslide that earthquake causes have occur suddenly, complicated mechanism, the various feature of motion morphology, predict more difficult.National governments alleviate the landslide disaster that earthquake causes, and have all taked active and effective measure.Wherein, in earthquake emergency system, mention especially " defence secondary disaster ", by strengthening secondary disaster monitoring and warning, organize expert to carry out the modes such as dangerous situation investigation, assessment and reinforcement, the emergency command and the rescue ability that improve the rear landslide disaster of government's reply shake, reduce the people's lives and property loss.
In the landslide emergency commading system causing for earthquake, the landslide disaster rapid evaluation that earthquake causes is important foundation and the scientific basis of Decision System of Emergency, if can rapid Estimation go out the landslide injures and deaths situation that earthquake causes, just can provide reference data for emergency resources demand; Also can, according to casualties situation, formulate goods and materials medical demand and disaster relief personnel demand scheme, within the shortest time, the victims of the disaster succoured and settle, thereby it is minimum that casualties level is dropped to.
China has set up model for Fast Seismic Disaster Assessment in the enforcement period of the ninth five-year plan, in addition, in article " model investigation of seismic casualties rapid evaluation " (Gao Huiying, Li Qingxia) in " theory of calamity " magazine volume supplementary issue October the 25th in 2010, author has proposed the appraisal procedure of earthquake centre Loss over the ground.But, the landslide disaster casualties fast evaluation method research causing about earthquake is very few, the article of " Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering " magazine the 10th phase the 29th volume October in 2010 " Earthquake-landslide Rapid earthquake hazard evaluation technology and on emergent impact research " (Wang Xiuying) in, author has also only proposed some Research Thinkings, does not but relate to concrete solution.Visible, in existing appraisal procedure, there is no the evaluation method of landslide secondary hazards causing for earthquake and may cause personnel death's Efficient Evaluation method, be particularly suitable for the fast evaluation method during post-earthquake emergency response.
Summary of the invention
The technical problem to be solved in the present invention is to provide the fast evaluation method that a kind of earthquake causes the personnel death that causes of landslide, to reduce or to avoid problem noted earlier.
For solving the problems of the technologies described above, the invention provides the fast evaluation method that a kind of earthquake causes the personnel death that causes of landslide, it is for after occurring in earthquake disaster, personnel death's quantity C that may be caused by seismic secondary landslide in rapid evaluation survey region, it comprises the steps
Steps A, utilizes existing geologic map that described survey region is divided into different geologic provinces by geology classification on computers, and obtains the cohesion c of each described geologic province, native unit weight r and angle of internal friction
parameter;
Step B, according to 30 of DEM meters of resolution datas, utilizes Arcgis software to obtain the Gradient of described survey region on computers;
Step C, on computers according to formula
Obtain the safety coefficient Fs of each described geologic province, in above formula, β is the gradient;
Step D, on computers according to formula
a
c＝(F
S-1)gsinβ
Obtain the limit acceleration a of each described geologic province
c;
Step e, monitors the north-south a that the station collects during by earthquake
eWwith East and West direction a
nStwo peak accelerator data, utilize formula
try to achieve mean value, then carry out interpolation calculation, obtain the earthquake motion peak accelerator a of each described geologic province
maxdata, and utilize Arcgis software to obtain each described geologic province a
max-a
cdata;
Step F, calculates the Landslide hazard parameter P that may cause each geology regional population's POD according to following formula on computers
1data,
Work as a
max-a
c, try to achieve P at>=0 o'clock
1=0.05-0.12 (a
max-a
c-0.446)
2,
As above formula P
1when < 0, P
1value is 0;
Work as a
max-a
cwhen < 0, P
1=0,
According to administrative division data, be unit taking county, utilize Arcgis software to try to achieve each county Landslide hazard mean parameter P
1i, i represents the i county of described survey region;
Step G, calculates the population vulnerability parameter in each county according to the following formula,
P
2i=(0.28-0.1I
a)
5.4-0.55M, wherein,
In above formula, M is magnitude of earthquake, C
afor this county 15-59 year size of population, C
ifor this county population total number of persons, i represents the i county of described survey region;
Step H, is more than or equal to for seismic intensity in region within the jurisdiction, each county the region that VI or earthquake motion peak accelerator are more than or equal to 0.05g, calculates according to the following formula reduction coefficient S
folding:
In above formula, S
alwaysfor the described county total area, S
vIfor described county seismic intensity is more than or equal to the area that VI or earthquake motion peak accelerator are more than or equal to the region of 0.05g;
Step I, calculates personnel death's quantity that may be caused by seismic secondary landslide in described survey region according to following formula
A kind of earthquake provided by the present invention causes the personnel death's that causes of landslide fast evaluation method, it can be after the earthquake, the contingent position of secondary landslide disaster that rapid evaluation is caused by earthquake with and personnel death's situation that may cause, the Emergency response level of selecting initiate emergency plan is had to higher reference value, provide foundation for decision maker specifies the victims of the disaster's rescue and rehousing programme.
Brief description of the drawings
The following drawings is only intended to the present invention to schematically illustrate and explain, not delimit the scope of the invention.Wherein,
That Fig. 1 shows is the geologic province division figure that causes the survey region of the personnel death's that causes of landslide fast evaluation method according to a kind of earthquake of a specific embodiment of the present invention;
Fig. 2 is the slope map of the survey region on Fig. 1 basis;
Fig. 3 is the safety coefficient data plot on Fig. 2 basis;
Fig. 4 is the limit acceleration figure on Fig. 3 basis;
Fig. 5 is the earthquake motion peak accelerator figure on Fig. 1 basis;
Fig. 6 is a on Fig. 4,5 bases
max-a
cdifferential chart;
Fig. 7 is that the earthquake on Fig. 6 basis causes Landslide hazard Parameter Map;
Fig. 8 is that the earthquake at county level on Fig. 7 basis causes Landslide hazard mean parameter data plot.
Embodiment
Understand for technical characterictic of the present invention, object and effect being had more clearly, the specific embodiment of the present invention is now described.
The invention provides the fast evaluation method that a kind of earthquake causes the personnel death that causes of landslide, it is for after occurring in earthquake disaster, personnel death's quantity C that may be caused by seismic secondary landslide in rapid evaluation survey region, and it comprises the steps,
Steps A, utilizes existing geologic map that described survey region is divided into different geologic provinces by geology classification on computers, and obtains the cohesion c of each described geologic province, native unit weight r and angle of internal friction
parameter; Parameter corresponding to different geology classifications is as shown in the table;
| Classification | Cohesion (MPa) | Soil unit weight (kN/m 3) | Angle of internal friction (°) |
| Volcanics | 0.22 | 27.5 | 40 |
| Metamorphosed rock | 0.17 | 26.5 | 33 |
| Petroclastic rock | 0.1 | 25.5 | 24 |
| Carbonatite | 0.07 | 23.5 | 16 |
| Quaternary system rickle | 0.05 | 21.5 | 13 |
Step B, according to 30 of DEM meters of data, utilizes Arcgis software to obtain the Gradient of described survey region on computers;
DEM digital elevation model (Digital Elevation Model) based on 30 meters can obtain by the ASTER GDEM of " geographical spatial data cloud ", and utilizes Arcgis software to obtain the Gradient of described survey region,
Step C, on computers according to formula
Obtain the safety coefficient Fs of each described geologic province, in above formula, β is the gradient;
The data that obtain according to steps A, B, the resolution that can be in Arcgis software calculates each described geologic province according to above-mentioned formula is the safety coefficient Fs of each foundation ground data cell of 30 meters, before calculating, can be first by angle of internal friction
first be scaled same unit with gradient β, for example, Arcgis software need to be inputted taking radian as unit data in the time calculating trigonometric function, can be first by angle of internal friction before calculating
all be scaled radian input with gradient β.
Step D, on computers according to formula
a
c＝(F
S-1)g?sinβ
Obtain the limit acceleration a of each described geologic province
c; Calculating after the safety coefficient Fs data of step C, the resolution that can be in Arcgis software further calculates each described geologic province according to above-mentioned formula is the limit acceleration a of each foundation ground data cell of 30 meters
c.
Step e, monitors the north-south a that the station collects during by earthquake
eWwith East and West direction a
nStwo peak accelerator data, utilize formula
try to achieve mean value, then carry out interpolation calculation, obtain the earthquake motion peak accelerator a of each described geologic province
maxdata, and utilize Arcgis software to obtain each described geologic province a
max-a
cdata; That is to say, the resolution that can further calculate each described geologic province in Arcgis software is a of each foundation ground data cell of 30 meters
max-a
cdata.
Step F, on computers, calculates the Landslide hazard parameter P that may cause each geology regional population's POD according to following formula
1data,
Work as a
max-a
c, try to achieve P at 0 o'clock
1=0.05-0.12 (a
max-a
c-0.446)
2,
As above formula P
1when < 0, P
1value is 0;
Work as a
max-a
cwhen < 0, P
1=0,
According to administrative division data, be unit taking county, utilize Arcgis software to try to achieve each county Landslide hazard mean parameter P
1i, i represents the i county of described survey region;
Utilizing the resolution that step e obtains is a of each foundation ground data cell of 30 meters
max-a
cdata, can calculate according to above-mentioned formula human mortality's probability P of each foundation ground data cell
1numerical value, then can be by administrative division data importing Arcgis software, be human mortality's probability P of each foundation ground data cell of 30 meters thereby can obtain the resolution that each county comprises
1numerical value, and Landslide hazard mean parameter P that further can each county
1i,
Step G, calculates the population vulnerability parameter in each county according to the following formula,
P
2i=(0.28-0.1I
a)
5.4-0.55M, wherein,
In above formula, M is magnitude of earthquake, and Ca is this county 15-59 year size of population, C
ifor this county population total number of persons, i represents the i county of described survey region;
Step H, is more than or equal to for seismic intensity in region within the jurisdiction, each county the region that VI or earthquake motion peak accelerator are more than or equal to 0.05g, calculates according to the following formula reduction coefficient S
folding:
In above formula, S
alwaysfor the described county total area, S
vIfor described county seismic intensity is more than or equal to the area that VI or earthquake motion peak accelerator are more than or equal to the region of 0.05g;
Step I, calculates personnel death's quantity C that may be caused by seismic secondary landslide in described survey region according to following formula,
That is to say and pass through formula
Can calculate personnel death's quantity C that may cause on seismic secondary landslide.
That Fig. 1 shows is the geologic province division figure that causes the survey region of the personnel death's that causes of landslide fast evaluation method according to a kind of earthquake of a specific embodiment of the present invention; Fig. 2 is the slope map of the survey region on Fig. 1 basis; Fig. 3 is the safety coefficient data plot on Fig. 2 basis; Fig. 4 is the limit acceleration figure on Fig. 3 basis; Fig. 5 is the earthquake motion peak accelerator figure on Fig. 1 basis; Fig. 6 is a on Fig. 4,5 bases
max-a
cdifferential chart; Fig. 7 is that the earthquake on Fig. 6 basis causes Landslide hazard Parameter Map; Fig. 8 is that the earthquake at county level on Fig. 7 basis causes Landslide hazard mean parameter data plot.
Shown in Fig. 1-8, with Minxian County, 07 month Gansu on the 22nd in 2013, Zhang County Ms6.6 earthquake, for example illustrates, a kind of earthquake provided by the present invention causes the personnel death's that caused of landslide fast evaluation method below.
First, as shown in Figure 1, utilize on computers existing geologic map that the survey region that suffers earthquake is divided into different geologic provinces by geology classification, and obtain the cohesion c of each described geologic province, native unit weight r and angle of internal friction
parameter;
Then, as shown in Figure 2, according to 30 of the DEM in described region meters of data, utilize Arcgis software to obtain the Gradient of described survey region on computers;
Afterwards, as shown in Figure 3, on computers according to formula
Obtain the safety coefficient Fs of each described geologic province
Afterwards, as shown in Figure 4, on computers according to formula
a
c＝(F
S-1)gsinβ
Obtain the limit acceleration a of each described geologic province
c;
Afterwards, as shown in Figure 5,6, during by earthquake, monitor the north-south a that the station collects
eWwith East and West direction a
nStwo peak accelerator data, utilize formula
try to achieve mean value, then carry out interpolation calculation, obtain the earthquake motion peak accelerator a of each described geologic province
maxdata, and utilize Arcgis software to obtain each described geologic province a
max-a
cdata; That is to say, the resolution that can further calculate each described geologic province in Arcgis software is a of each foundation ground data cell of 30 meters
max-a
cdata.
Afterwards, as shown in Figure 7,8, on computers, calculate the Landslide hazard parameter P that may cause each geology regional population's POD according to following formula
1data,
Work as a
max-a
c, try to achieve P at 0 o'clock
1=0.05-0.12 (a
max-a
c-0.446)
2,
As above formula P
1when < 0, P
1value is 0;
Work as a
max-a
cwhen < 0, P
1=0,
According to administrative division data, be unit taking county, utilize Arcgis software to try to achieve each county Landslide hazard mean parameter P
1i,
Afterwards, calculate according to the following formula the population vulnerability parameter in each county,
P
2i=(0.28-0.1I
a)
5.4-0.55M, wherein,
In above formula, M is magnitude of earthquake, and Ca is this county 15-59 year size of population, C
ifor this county population total number of persons, i represents the i county of described survey region;
Afterwards, be more than or equal to for seismic intensity in region within the jurisdiction, each county the region that VI or earthquake motion peak accelerator are more than or equal to 0.05g, calculate according to the following formula reduction coefficient S
folding:
In above formula, S
alwaysfor the described county total area, S
vIfor described county seismic intensity is more than or equal to the region area that VI or earthquake motion peak accelerator are more than or equal to 0.05g;
Finally, calculate personnel death's quantity C that may be caused by seismic secondary landslide in described survey region according to following formula,
That is to say and pass through formula
Can calculate personnel death's quantity C that may cause on seismic secondary landslide.
In this specific embodiment, as shown in the table after the correlation data calculation of Minxian County, Zhang County:
That is to say, cause the personnel death's that causes of landslide fast evaluation method by a kind of earthquake provided by the invention, can estimate personnel death's number that the secondary landslide disaster that causes due to this secondary earthquake may cause is 67-68 people, and actual 57 people that cause of the secondary landslide disaster that this secondary earthquake causes, that is to say, cause the error of the personnel death's that causes of landslide fast evaluation method institute assessment result to be less than 18% by a kind of earthquake provided by the invention, therefore, when a kind of earthquake provided by the present invention causes the personnel death's that causes of landslide fast evaluation method to occur for Future Earthquakes disaster, the personnel death that the secondary landslide disaster that earthquake is caused may cause assesses.
A kind of earthquake provided by the present invention causes the personnel death's that causes of landslide fast evaluation method, it can be after the earthquake, the contingent position of secondary landslide disaster that rapid evaluation is caused by earthquake with and personnel death's situation that may cause, the Emergency response level of selecting initiate emergency plan is had to higher reference value, provide foundation for decision maker specifies the victims of the disaster's rescue and rehousing programme.
Although it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that the present invention is described according to the mode of multiple embodiment, be not that each embodiment only comprises an independently technical scheme.For the purpose of in instructions, so narration is only used to know; those skilled in the art should make instructions as a wholely to be understood, and regard technical scheme related in each embodiment as the mode that can mutually be combined into different embodiment understand protection scope of the present invention.
The foregoing is only the schematic embodiment of the present invention, not in order to limit scope of the present invention.Any those skilled in the art, not departing from equivalent variations, amendment and the combination done under the prerequisite of design of the present invention and principle, all should belong to the scope of protection of the invention.
Claims (1)
1. an earthquake causes the personnel death's that landslide causes fast evaluation method, it is characterized in that, it is for after occurring in earthquake disaster, personnel death's quantity C that may be caused by seismic secondary landslide in rapid evaluation survey region, it comprises the steps
Steps A, utilizes existing geologic map that described survey region is divided into different geologic provinces by geology classification on computers, and obtains the cohesion c of each described geologic province, native unit weight r and angle of internal friction
parameter;
Step B, according to 30 of DEM meters of data, utilizes Arcgis software to obtain the Gradient of described survey region on computers;
Step C, on computers according to formula
Obtain the safety coefficient Fs of each described geologic province, in above formula, β is the gradient;
Step D, on computers according to formula
a
c＝(F
s-1)gsinβ
Obtain the limit acceleration a of each described geologic province
c;
Step e, monitors the north-south a that the station collects during by earthquake
eWwith East and West direction a
nStwo peak accelerator data, utilize formula
try to achieve mean value, then carry out interpolation calculation, obtain the earthquake motion peak accelerator a of each described geologic province
maxdata, and utilize Arcgis software to obtain each described geologic province a
max-a
cdata;
Step F, calculates the Landslide hazard parameter P that may cause each geology regional population's POD according to following formula on computers
1data,
Work as a
max-a
c, try to achieve P at 0 o'clock
1=0.05-0.12 (a
max-a
c-0.446)
2,
As above formula P
1when < 0, P
1value is 0;
Work as a
max-a
cwhen < 0, P
1=0,
According to administrative division data, be unit taking county, utilize Arcgis software to try to achieve each county Landslide hazard mean parameter P
1i, i represents the i county of described survey region;
Step G, calculates the population vulnerability parameter in each county according to the following formula,
P
2i=(0.28-0.1I
a)
5.4-0.55M, wherein,
In above formula, M is magnitude of earthquake, and Ca is this county 15-59 year size of population, C
ifor this county population total number of persons, i represents the i county of described survey region;
Step H, is more than or equal to the VI region of (or earthquake motion peak accelerator is more than or equal to 0.05g) for seismic intensity in region within the jurisdiction, each county, calculates according to the following formula reduction coefficient S
folding:
In above formula, S
alwaysfor the described county total area, S
vIfor described county seismic intensity is more than or equal to the area in the region of VI (or earthquake motion peak accelerator is more than or equal to 0.05g);
Step I, calculates personnel death's quantity that may be caused by seismic secondary landslide in described survey region according to following formula
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| CN104615847A (en) * | 2014-12-24 | 2015-05-13 | 中交天津港湾工程研究院有限公司 | Tsunami dangerousness forecasting method for the South China Sea based on probabilistic method |
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