CN104106436A - Technique to mitigate storms using arrays of wind turbines - Google Patents
Technique to mitigate storms using arrays of wind turbines Download PDFInfo
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- CN104106436A CN104106436A CN201410043922.0A CN201410043922A CN104106436A CN 104106436 A CN104106436 A CN 104106436A CN 201410043922 A CN201410043922 A CN 201410043922A CN 104106436 A CN104106436 A CN 104106436A
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Classifications
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- A—HUMAN NECESSITIES
- A01—AGRICULTURE; FORESTRY; ANIMAL HUSBANDRY; HUNTING; TRAPPING; FISHING
- A01G—HORTICULTURE; CULTIVATION OF VEGETABLES, FLOWERS, RICE, FRUIT, VINES, HOPS OR SEAWEED; FORESTRY; WATERING
- A01G15/00—Devices or methods for influencing weather conditions
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- F—MECHANICAL ENGINEERING; LIGHTING; HEATING; WEAPONS; BLASTING
- F03—MACHINES OR ENGINES FOR LIQUIDS; WIND, SPRING, OR WEIGHT MOTORS; PRODUCING MECHANICAL POWER OR A REACTIVE PROPULSIVE THRUST, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- F03D—WIND MOTORS
- F03D7/00—Controlling wind motors
- F03D7/02—Controlling wind motors the wind motors having rotation axis substantially parallel to the air flow entering the rotor
- F03D7/04—Automatic control; Regulation
- F03D7/042—Automatic control; Regulation by means of an electrical or electronic controller
- F03D7/048—Automatic control; Regulation by means of an electrical or electronic controller controlling wind farms
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- F—MECHANICAL ENGINEERING; LIGHTING; HEATING; WEAPONS; BLASTING
- F03—MACHINES OR ENGINES FOR LIQUIDS; WIND, SPRING, OR WEIGHT MOTORS; PRODUCING MECHANICAL POWER OR A REACTIVE PROPULSIVE THRUST, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- F03D—WIND MOTORS
- F03D80/00—Details, components or accessories not provided for in groups F03D1/00 - F03D17/00
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02E—REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS [GHG] EMISSIONS, RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION
- Y02E10/00—Energy generation through renewable energy sources
- Y02E10/70—Wind energy
- Y02E10/72—Wind turbines with rotation axis in wind direction
Abstract
The application refers to a technique to mitigate storms using arrays of wind turbines, and describes a system whose operation can change the track and intensity of atmospheric storms. The invention uses arrays of wind turbines which are being built for power generation. Using existing atmospheric and storm tracking models, calculations of a storm track may be determined to establish a baseline track calculation. The storm track may then be calculated for a number of permutations where various groups or individual wind turbines are curtailed (e.g., feathered). The optimal storm track may be determined based on damage estimate calculations. Signals may be sent to individual or groups of wind turbines to curtail the turbines to alter the track of the tropical storm.
Description
government's rights and interests statement
Facilitating the research that the present invention develops is to be initiated by national marine and air management office (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory.NOAA is a part for the US Department of Commerce's (part of Federal Government).U.S. government has certain right for the present invention.
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of system, its operation can change track and the intensity of atmosphere storm.In particular, the present invention be directed to and use the wind turbine array building for generating, to change the path of other weather phenomena such as tropical storm and such as severe storm and arid.
Background technology
The present invention comprises a kind of system, and its operation can change track and the intensity of atmosphere storm and other weather phenomenon.The present invention uses the wind turbine array building for generating.In the example of explanation herein, discuss the imagination transformation of hurricane Aileen's (Irene) track.Thereby this storm has attacked eastern united states in August, 2011, coastal to cause exceeding loss and 45 people of 5,000,000,000 dollars wrecked.Estimation described below is that the technology described in the present invention further moves hurricane Aileen's path eastwards may move to east seashore on hurricane Aileen time step by step, thereby keeps the most dangerous wind-force and precipitation away from seashore.
The concept of the large-scale redevelopment of storm is by Huffman (Hoffman) (Hoffman, Luo Si N (Ross N.), 2002: control global weather, meteorology institute of U.S. bulletin (Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.), 83,241 – 248, are incorporated herein by reference) propose.After paper (Hoffman, R.N., JM Martin Henderson (J.M.Henderson), SM Randt receive (S.M.Leidner), C Ge Lasuote (C.Grassott) and T Nellie hole (T.Nehrkorn), 2006: the response of the finite amplitude disturbance of the destruction wind-force of simulation tropical cyclone to different variablees, atmospheric science (Atmos.Sci.), 63 (7), 19241937, also be incorporated herein by reference) in, the susceptibility of the disturbance of tropical cyclone to wind-force and temperature discussed.A rear paper is not described the technology of this type of disturbance of exploitation, but statement: " obvious, in reality, realize control tropical cyclone and have got long long way to go ... "Suppose to be, be described as far exceeding existing mankind's technology by changing storm path and the required energy of intensity.
In prior art, have some references, it is for prediction or control weather.Some in these references are discussed wind turbine impacts on environment, especially in the time that it mixes different air layer.But these are with reference to all not advising that having a mind to control this affects to change the process of weather or change hurricane.
A Bosen S (Aberson, S.) 2001: entirety (1976-2000) (meteorology institute of the U.S. bulletin of the tropical cyclone orbit prediction model in basin, the North Atlantic Ocean, 82,1895 – 1904, are incorporated herein by reference) disclose the forecasting model of tropical cyclone.This is with reference to disclosing forecasting model, but how announcement does not change hurricane track.
Barry D (Barrie, D.), DB Ke Kedai Zevegin Oidov (D.B.Kirk-Davidof), 2010: to weather response (Atmospheric Chemistry and the physics (Atmos.Chem.Phys.) of larger wind turbines array, 10,769-775, is incorporated herein by reference) disclose larger wind turbines array and can how to affect local weather.This is with reference to being correlated with, because it discloses about the imaginary network of cen.am. to change atmospheric energy by how under the level more than initial atmosphere uncertainty, thereby produce, the measurable downstream of large-scale convection layer air-flow is changed.Not teaching or be proposed to be used in and control the algorithm of this array of Barrie and Kirk-Davidoff, they do not advise yet to this phenomenon have a mind to control.
Lorentz lorentz EN (Lorenz, E.N.), 1963: certainty air-flow aperiodic (atmospheric science periodical (J.Atmos.Sci.), 20,130-141, is incorporated herein by reference) discuss the atomic microvariations of current atmospheric condition can be how the time produces larger difference after a while.
Lewis J (Lewis, J.), S clarke rice vara sweat (S.Lakshmivarahan) and S Dao Er (S.Dhall), 2006: dynamic data assimilation: least squares method (Cambridge University Press, the 745th page, be incorporated herein by reference) be assessment, combination and the synthetic textbook about observation data, scientific law and the mathematical model of the state in order to determine complicated physical system, for example, as making the preliminary step about the prediction of system action.
Disclosed No. WO2011/134281A1 open PCT application case on April 28th, 2011 (its No. 2010/10160384.5 Chinese patent application case based on application on April 30th, 2010, both are all incorporated herein by reference) discloses and uses fan that atmosphere is blown to another region from a region.
Be known by using cloud seeding and similar techniques to being controlled in technique of weather, obtained success in various degree.On January 20th, 2005, No. JP2005/013017 open Japanese patent application case open and that be incorporated herein by reference disclosed a kind of for using balloon to carry out the technology of cloud seeding.The 2nd, 756, No. 097 United States Patent (USP) issuing and be incorporated herein by reference the people's such as white orchid degree (Brandau) 24 days July in 1956 discloses about looking which kind of variation has occurred by inserting the liquid in aircrafts exhaust cloud seeding.The 3rd, 284, No. 005 United States Patent (USP) that Keyes does not issue and is incorporated herein by reference the people's such as (Kasemir) 8 days November in 1966 discloses by the electric charge cloud seeding in change cloud variation has occurred.Issue and be incorporated herein by reference the Buddhist nun's of Kodak (Cordani) November 13 calendar year 2001 the 6th, 315, No. 213 United States Patent (USP)s disclose a kind of for using the technology of crosslinked aqueous polymer cloud seeding.The RE29 that issue and be incorporated herein by reference the people's such as handkerchief skin (Papee) 22 days February in 1977, the United States Patent (USP) of again issuing for No. 142 discloses the combustible component for generation of the suspended particulates for cloud transformation.Carry and disclose a kind of for offsetting the technology of high wind by use cloud seeding by people's such as (Tew) No. WO2007/105014 open PCT application case open and that be incorporated herein by reference in 20 days September in 2007.
Also there are some references of discussing the intensity that relaxes hurricane, cyclone or cyclone.Many these references depend on the thermograde of change seawater.Issue and be incorporated herein by reference the 26 days June in 1973 of all meetings gloomy (Van Huisen) the 3741st, No. 480 United States Patent (USP)s disclose smog and the weather control system of the top surface that uses geothermal wells heating water bodys.Issue and be incorporated herein by reference the 12 days October in 2010 of Constantine Nuo Siji (Konstantinovskiy) the 7th, 810, No. 420 United States Patent (USP) discloses a kind of by liquid nitrogen being injected into the method for interrupting cyclone in cyclone.Issue and be incorporated herein by reference the 3 days April in 2012 of lattice rad (Gradle) the 8th, 148, No. 840 United States Patent (USP)s disclose the oceanic winds water pump for storm is deenergized.The water pump of wind power supply takes cold water to surface.Issue and be incorporated herein by reference 11 days September in 2012 of Si Luoweiqi (Sirovich) the 8th, 262, No. 314 United States Patent (USP)s disclose a kind of intensity of tropical storm and methods of frequency of reducing.Water layer is mixed to reduce the thermograde in water.No. 2007/025126 open U.S. patent application case open and that be incorporated herein by reference in 8 days November in 2007 of Ward clarke (Vondracek) discloses a kind of technology that tropical cyclone destroys that relaxes.Again, use suction mix from compared with the colder water of low depth to reduce marine surface temperature.The people's such as Salva (Salva) No. 2010/0072297 open U.S. patent application case open and that be incorporated herein by reference in 25 days March in 2010 discloses a kind of for controlling the method for hurricane.The jet in a large number with afterburner flow in hurricane to produce the less variation of temperature.
Deliver the some popular article that can how to change the theme of weather condition about weather control and wind power plant.The wind power plant of on April 29th, 2012 delivering and being incorporated herein by reference affects local weather (Wind Farms Affect Local Weather, BBC news, science and environment) disclose physioclimate and change the research of delivering in (Nature Climate Change) periodical and how to show that the turbine that is positioned at West Germany state has produced impact to local weather.This is only accumulation reference, because the Barrie that inventor quotes is with reference to also disclosing this fact.The wind power plant of on April 29th, 2012 delivering and being incorporated herein by reference can cause climatic variation (Wind Farms Can Cause Climate Change), find recent studies on (Finds New Study), Daily Telegraph seems to have reported the research identical with BBC article.The large-scale wind power field of on April 30th, 2012 delivering and being incorporated herein by reference increases temperature near the ground (Large Wind Farms Increase Temperatures Near Ground, Wall Street Journal) and has reported with the first two with reference to identical research.
Weather control contest (China Leads Weather Control Race causes in the China that on November 14th, 2007 delivers and be incorporated herein by reference, Wired.com) discuss China in the progress obtaining aspect weather control, this seems to be limited to cloud seeding and similar techniques.Cloud seeding is well-known in technique, but can not change the process of storm, but only causes precipitation (when it is known while working).
These are with reference to all how teaching or suggestion, how with basis is installed changes the track of storm of wind turbine, or do not exert oneself to change other weather phenomenon by the systematicness reduction of this type of turbine array.
Summary of the invention
The present invention utilizes the emerging worldwide trend of wind-power electricity generation, and the invention of new technology, indicates at some in (but not all) situations how to affect storm.The drive energy that storm house of correction needs is the wide geographical network of the similar wind turbine of wind turbine just considered with the present U.S. and other country.The size of these wind-power electricity generation networks and configuration are the requirements based on to national energy system; In general, storm control technology can need large quantity space and energy response.
Described system is utilized many turbines in the geographic region of extending, its can according to the pattern of deriving from the algorithm of inventor exploitation individually, space and time reduction exert oneself.About the use of " reduction is exerted oneself " of term wind turbine, in the present invention, suppose wind turbine can be in the ordinary course of things for changing the momentum in the envelope of characteristic of turbine.The algorithm that is called storm track and intensity controller technology (STRICT) uses a large amount of Atmospheric models series, the reduction of the power generation of its regulation wind turbine pattern of exerting oneself.Probability track and intensity that the transmission of STRICT algorithm is new, it can and be implemented to reduce the negative effect of storm through selection, or strengthens positive influences (for example, bringing rainwater for meeting with arid area).Embodiment comprises lasting 12 hours periods of characteristic that change each turbine in network according to STRICT specification.Conventionally, can recalculate and carry out each follow-up 12 hours period according to STRICT algorithm.Experiment can show that other periodicity transformation (for example,, every 6 hours or 24 hours) can have some advantages.
Generally be appreciated that, the atmosphere storms such as such as tropical storm, in broad regions, bring the low-pressure system of rainwater, snow and wind, and can cause that energy is extremely huge compared with the energy system that cyclone, hail and the thunderstorm that Freshets roar down from the mountains control with the mankind.But, an inherent characteristic (being called buterfly effect) of weather is by Lorentz lorentz EN (Lorenz, E.N.) proposed in 1963: certainty air-flow aperiodic, atmospheric science periodical (J.Atmos.Sci.), 20,130-141, is incorporated herein by reference.Lorenz shows that the minimal perturbation in current atmospheric condition can cause the greatest differences of time after a while.Lorenz used several butterflies time early flutter may become the several months after the example of reason of cyclone of different regions.In the technology of describing herein, the exert oneself momentum that causes of the reduction of managing significantly a hundreds of thousands wind turbine on territory changes and will change atmosphere wave structure, and the size of described change and configuration are according to the nonlinear kinetics of Lorenz elaboration and growth in time.
(the Barrie of research more recently of Barrie and Kirk-Davidoff, D., D.B.Kirk-Davidof, 2010: to the weather response of larger wind turbines array, Atmospheric Chemistry and physics (Atmos.Chem.Phys.), 10,769-775, is incorporated herein by reference) show, imaginary network about cen.am. will change atmospheric energy under the level more than initial atmosphere uncertainty, thereby produce, the measurable downstream of large-scale convection layer air-flow is changed.Because the track of storm and intensity are by the control of large-scale convection layer air-flow, be feasible so use the algorithm control storm of describing in the present invention.
Guiding hurricane is concluded away from expectation and the exploitation of other storm control based on large-scale wind turbine network of U.S.'s seashore.48 examples in abutting connection with the optimum network in U.S. state are described in Fig. 1, and its explanation is in the position of the proposed wind power station of the U.S..This is a kind of possible configuration of the national network of wind turbine, but the cause changing compared with macro-energy that the present invention produces because this turbine array is alternative, is all feasible for any large-scale national array almost.In this customized configuration, there are a large amount of wind turbines that are positioned at cen.am..In this system configuration, there are 240,000 3Mw wind turbines, thereby 52% of U.S.'s electric energy is provided every year on average.Conventionally, this network draws several hundred billion watts of energy from atmospheric boundary layer.The systematicness of wind turbine network is cut down exert oneself (, the disconnection of blade or " feathering connections ", make it not draw energy from air) and can cause the change of the momentum structure above turbine.Atmosphere forecast model provides this type of to change will how downstream (or more precisely, the estimation of propagating in any direction).STRICT algorithm of the present invention produces cuts down the arrangement of exerting oneself, and can produce the probability that the downstream that is subject to be propagated by air-flow changes the storm affecting and sexually revise in the situation that following this arrangement.
As described above, all power in atmosphere, the momentum of agitating a hundreds of thousands wind turbine to turn-off to cause from butterfly's wing changes, and can cause the change of following weather.Invention described herein utilizes two new factors.First, the technical ability of the whole world and Weather Of Area model is in the stable enhancing of many decades recently; The mean orbit error that tropical storm logs in 400 miles from 40 years is reduced to and is of todayly less than 100 miles.The second, the combined effect of hundreds of thousands many megawatts wind turbine is representing than the larger any energy input of the previous energy input of having controlled of the mankind.
Focus is that, if implement large-scale wind turbine network, STRICT algorithm will change storm track towards its direction originally in the non-existent situation of network in general sense so.Can state in another way this concept help understand.Wind turbine compared with macroreticular, the cause of the Chaotic Behavior due to atmosphere is had to remarkable impact to downstream weather.Most of time, these impacts will be relatively little, but sometimes, owing to atmosphere lability, it will be exponential increase in time.The core of the algorithm of author invention be the downstream amplification pointing out to cut down the disturbance of exerting oneself owing to wind turbine when will be in desirable direction moving target storm.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the figure through optimization wind-force and solar energy network that explanation can be supplied approximately 70% American Electric Power.
Fig. 2 is by the figure of three colored boxs in the region of disturbance in the large zone-perturbation technology of explanation conduct.
Fig. 3 is explanation with the exert oneself figure of the estimated transformation to hurricane Aileen track of the reduction of 300,000,000,000 watts on Western Plains.
Fig. 4 is the block diagram of explanation primary clustering of the present invention.
Fig. 5 is the flow chart that the step using in method of the present invention is described.
Embodiment
Fig. 1 is the figure through optimization wind-force and solar energy network that explanation can be supplied approximately 70% American Electric Power.Dark areas in Plain represents the block of approximately 170 sq-kms, and total wind turbine electro-mechanical force has been carried out coloud coding.The typical block of navy blue will have approximately 150 3 megawatt wind turbines.The reduction of wind turbine block is exerted oneself and will be added approximately 450 megawatt wind energies to the row of turbine top.The total generating capacity of the Plain network of showing is about 600,000,000,000 watts.
Fig. 2 is by the figure of three colored boxs in the region of disturbance in the large zone-perturbation technology of explanation conduct.Each region can be cut down completely and exerted oneself or not exclusively cut down and exert oneself, and different may cut down out force mode thereby provide eight kinds.These cut down out force mode and then use to determine together with forecast model the downstream influences of disturbance.Reduction is exerted oneself through selecting to realize the desirable impact of the maximum of storm.
Fig. 3 is explanation with the exert oneself figure of the estimated transformation to hurricane Aileen track of 300,000,000,000 watts of reductions on Western Plains.Under this simple scenario, suppose that wind-force and pressure disturbance were along with 36 hours added doubling time and amplify, thus mobile to promote storm further eastwards away from U.S.'s seashore downstream from wind turbine array.
Fig. 4 is the block diagram of explanation primary clustering of the present invention.The following explanation of STRICT algorithm is described to strengthen the understanding how it is worked in conjunction with particular case.In the case, use the network of wind turbine 406A-DC, it is designed to best wind-force and the solar energy system (illustrating in Fig. 1) in 48 states of the U.S..For purposes of illustration, four wind turbine 406A-D of schematic presentation.These represent one or more networks of wind turbine, as described in conjunction with Fig. 1.The number of effect of the present invention and institute's mounting wind machine is proportional.
Application hurricane Aileen's example illustrates the present invention.Hurricane Aileen is present in from August 20 to the decline phase in its first tenday period of a month in September, affects eastern united states coastal between August 25 and August 29.The importance of STRICT algorithm is nearly within three days, just to have predicted storm by global models before storm forms.
Modem weather forecast model 402 can be made the prediction 403 of following atmospheric condition, and described following atmospheric condition departs from more and more gradually institute's observer state within cycle a couple of days.Global weather forecast model 402 can receive input from various weather sensor data 401, including (but not limited to) satellite image data, temperature and wind-force data, atmospheric pressure data, ocean temperature data etc.The use of all models 402 allows to have by the express possibility envelope of state of multiple predictions 403 of disturbance original state.As an example, be positioned at Caribbean hurricane and can take some different tracks.Multiple Model Series can be shown many tracks, and it is " gathering " (carrying out its prediction and perturbation growth if model is good at) around most probable track conventionally.STRICT404 algorithm uses a model and predicts all piths as its technical foundation of 403.
STRICT algorithm 404 use global weather forecast models 402 are set up the baseline of weather forecasting.For instance, global weather forecast model 402 can be based on normal model parameter generating storm orbital prediction 403.STRICT algorithm can then compare by this baseline model and through change model, wherein stop using or remove and activate (reduction is exerted oneself) various wind turbine 406A-D, and the produced impact on storm track recalculated and compared with original baseline model.Network control system 405 can send signal to electronic controller to automatically shut down (feathering connection) or otherwise stop using or cut down turbine or turbine group and exert oneself.As an alternative or in addition, network control system 405 can send signal to each public utilities and wind turbine operator via internet, thus the turbine of indicating them to cut down the number calculating as STRICT algorithm is exerted oneself.
Fig. 5 is the flow chart that the step using in method of the present invention is described.As illustrated in Figure 5, in step 510, obtain weather sensor data, as previously discussed in conjunction with Fig. 4.In step 520, operation global weather forecast model is to produce the storm track 530 of being predicted.Again, global weather model and storm track generation technology are known in technique, and therefore do not need to describe in detail herein.In step 540, make about whether determining other region of jeopardizing U.S. coastline or pay close attention to of the sudden and violent track of advised wind transmission.If storm turns to maintenance offshore through rule, can not take so further action, and processing turns back to step 510.
System reaches wind turbine and cuts down the best estimate of the room and time sequence of exerting oneself with many model integrations.Exert oneself based on providing in window at 12 hours to cut down every the model integration of operation in 12 hours.Therefore, benefit is calculate fast, to determine as early as possible sequence after the model initialization time.As an example, start with 00UT initial time.If whole assimilations and Model Series can complete in six hours, cutting down so the window of exerting oneself will be after initial time 6 to 18 hours.
Use advanced assimilation, suppose that initialization system has reached all best estimates of original state.For distinguishing all of original state and each multiple predictions all from original state, we are called the former " original state all " (EIS).The cycle that forecast model 530 forward integrations extend, common 7 to 10 days.
In calculating, use two kinds of complementary technologies.The first is large zone-perturbation technology, and it will be described herein.The second is detailed four-dimensional change technique (D4DVT), is below describing.Described technology is complementary because LAPT can be used for determining the fairly large characteristic of storm remodeling method, and detailed can be from D4DVT by turbine specification.LAPT starts with the geographic area compared with peanut.In order to illustrate, we use three regions, as shown in Figure 2.The layout in region will be conventionally based on experience and test, but we have selected north and south to divide in the case.Three regions are considered as block under this simple scenario; Each in regulation region is cut down the same time sequence of exerting oneself by seeking unity of action.Certainly, can use based on experience, test and available computational resource the zone subdivision of any number.
LAPT555 uses multiple model integrations for all each of original state.The first model integration of each member is " members control " 545.This is not have any wind turbine to cut down the series of exerting oneself, as illustrated in step 510-530 in Fig. 5.These steps are set up baseline storm track in the situation that exerting oneself without reduction.Then, carry out one group of extra Model Series for each EIS in step 550-580.In step 550, select turbine area to exert oneself for cutting down.In step 560, operation global weather forecast model, and in step 570, produce the storm track of predicting.In step 580, by new storm track with compare from the baseline storm track of frame 545.Once storm track has improved or optimized, process just completes.If not, process is cut down each combination repetition of exerting oneself for turbine so, as explanation in LAPT frame 555.
The number of the prediction series of each original state (each EIS) can be through selecting as all disturbances of prime area, exists two can enable state-reduction be exerted oneself or does not cut down and exert oneself completely.Also can use other more complicated perturbation motion method, the part of such as turbine is cut down and is exerted oneself etc.Under simple scenario, three zoness of different with binary condition produce eight possible states, or seven, add and control series.Realize eight prediction series for each of EIS, therefore prediction series add up to EIS*NR.Therefore,, if there are 20 original states (EIS=20), must there is so 20*8=160 model prediction series.
The second stage of LAPT is to select to cut down the strategy of exerting oneself based on multiple generic series.For instance, simple strategy (it may not be best after test) be get each disturbance all come to determine which disturbance in required direction the most successfully moving projection with acquisition track and intensity change, as explanation in frame 580.Model prediction series also should comprise turbine and cut down the selection that the some following situation of exerting oneself is exerted oneself to strengthen best current reduction.Compromise due between track and intensity, so certain that can have that this step relates to artificially judges.Various arrangements (original or artificially editor) can then be input to D4DVT, as explanation in step 590.
Detailed four-dimensional change technique (D4DVT) determines by the four-dimensional method that changes assimilation the detailed arrangement that the reduction of each wind turbine is exerted oneself.The subject of four-dimensional assimilate (hereinafter referred to as 4DVAR) has the history of 30 years in atmosphere application, and is used by the pre-measured center of many global weathers.In the case, 4DVAR technology is suitable for searching for best wind turbine and cuts down and exert oneself but not best atmospheric analysis.By using above-described perturbation technique, this convergence of algorithm speed and probability increase.
Destroy the future that D4DVT attempts to minimize from tropical storm.Therefore it depends on the definition of " destruction function ", must for example, from can the affected very first time (, starting 6 hours from initial time) associated with the end of model integration from total destruction of storm.Destroy function 600 and can have a vicissitudinous complexity, comprise wind-force and destroy function and the flood function based on precipitation.Very simple example may be cube (proportional with destructive power) of population in use density and surperficial wind-force.Total destruction can be multiplied by the maximum that wind-force destroys function by affected each national population and be similar to.A computational details is, near region tropical storm must be through sheltering, and only makes the wind-force from tropical storm enter and minimizes; This is similar to the spatial concealment using in conventional 4DVAR, and just it can not weaken with distance.The software of following the tracks of the center of tropical storm in forecast model will be typically used as the center of the radius of influence of hundreds of km.
According to destroying function 600, the best profile of exerting oneself of cutting down is selected in the arrangement that system can then be calculated in step 610 from LAPT frame 555.Corresponding reduction goes out that force signal can then send to cut down indivedual turbines in frame 630 in frame 620 or turbine group exerts oneself.Can realize reduction and exert oneself by using the system of order control operation turbine sending via network to turn-off (feathering connections) indivedual turbines or turbine group.For example, or these signals can be used as communication (, Email etc.) and send to utility company and turbine operator, they can be input to order in its system and connect indivedual turbines or turbine group with feathering again.
Control variables is that the reduction of wind turbine goes out force function.Describedly cut down out force function from 0 to 1 variation, wherein the complete feathering of 0 instruction wind turbine connects, and 1 means under its total power of allowing and operates.Can use simplification, for example, wind turbine is divided into block (for example,, by making all wind turbine coordinate operation in model meshes element).In addition, can enter effect by complicated algorithm although wind turbine is cut down out force function, its momentum transformation that can be converted to by reduction is exerted oneself wind-force in the layer that comprises turbine blade is simplified.Under any circumstance, momentum transformation is converted to it is very important for the accuracy of technology on the impact of forecast model.
Follow conventional 4DVAR method (people such as Lewis (Lewis), 2006), define a function, make to destroy variable to minimize, and forecast model is as strong constraint.By model forward integration, and follow backward integration to obtain the gradient of function with respect to control variables (reduction of each in turbine is exerted oneself).The gradient of cost function is then used together with searching algorithm, and for example steepest descent or conjugate gradient, to determine the minimum configuration that destroys.This is used to specify after initial time the reduction of wind turbine during 6 to 18 hours periods and exerts oneself.The cycle of model prediction may be selected to be at random and finishes.Conventionally,, for raising the efficiency, it will finish in the time that the destruction potential of storm drops to below threshold value.The in the situation that of hurricane Aileen, may be storm in the North Atlantic Ocean, dissipated far after.
Above-described STRICT algorithm not will be worked in each case.Its in the case of storm to be transformed downstream and meteorological condition strongly amplify best effort initial disturbance.In simplified example, use the data from hurricane Aileen, suppose that wind turbine network disturbance is 300,000,000,000 watts.Therefore, boundary layer obtains 300,000,000,000 watts in 12 hours periods, and it is 1.3*1016 Joule energy.This disturbance with approximate center troposphere airflow velocity (for example, 20m/s) propagates down stream and upwards propagate into middle part troposphere in.Under this speed, need 72 hours ability to arrive hurricane region.Suppose the amplification doubling time (many disturbances are amplified quickly) of 36 hours; In the time that disturbance arrives western Atlantic Ocean waters, its gross energy is 5*1016 joule.With rational middle latitude resonance Rossby (Rossby) the radius convergent-divergent disturbance in August, provide the radius of about 800km, corresponding to the horizontal extent of disturbance; Under 20m/s speed, the distance covering in 12 hours is 864km.The energy of supposing system, and is cut apart for the strongest in troposphere, middle part between kinetic energy and potential energy.The hurricane that has two of extremely responsive cycle to have destructive power in the past few decades in the time approaching continental United States is hurricane Andrew in 1992, and the hurricane Sang Di of 2012.These two hurricanes are by the good candidate that is STRICT---will test to determine how described technology will operate in these and other situation.
According to the height in atmosphere in vertical direction distribution energy provide " steering level " (A Busesen (Abserson) of about 700mb, 2001) the intermediate momentum of lower about 1m/s changes, and is similar to the disturbance of finding on the western Atlantic Ocean waters of Barrie and Kirk-Davidoff (2010) description.As illustrated in Fig. 3, hurricane Aileen's track can be by supposing that it further advances and transform to be similar to 1m/s in the time that the wind-force network from shown in Fig. 1 crosses mid-latitude region downstream eastwards.Described storm leap 15GMT25N on August 25 and arrival on August 29 15GMT50N.The total displacement in lower 4 day cycle of 1m/s will be about 345km (216 miles).This example is illustrated by the contrast track of Fig. 3.Light color shade track is shown actual vortex, and it has affected the U.S. from Carolina to the Maine State.Dark-coloured track shows will where to have gone based on above discussion storm.Visible, by storm is moved beyond to 200 miles eastwards, will significantly relax the destruction of eastern united states seashore.
Should mention some aspects of this calculating." movement " of the storm of discussing depended on from the relatively high differential power of wind turbine array generation, and great amplification.In fact, every 12 hours will be that STRICT algorithm is by the chance representing.During some cycles, wind-force will be a little less than, therefore initial disturbance may be only 1.5 hundred billion watts.Similarly, malleation (obtaining energy from the jet being pre-existing in) and (obtaining energy from the temperature contrast) lability of baroclining can cause plus or minus to amplify.STRICT algorithm shows that given wind turbine cuts down the envelope of the tactful possible outcome of exerting oneself, need to be on the impact of storm thereby allow policy development person to determine whether.Due to chance of the existence of every 12 hours (will be 10 chances for the storm of lasting 5 days (being about mean lifetime)), so exist system that many chances of helpful transformation are provided.
Another importance of STRICT technology will be to estimate minimum Damage course with linear programming.The optimal path that guides storm in the time that potential motion exists difference is determined in the geographical distribution of environment that this utilization builds and population position.It has supplemented described technology so that destroy minimum mode.
In the country with larger wind turbines array, invention described herein can give policy development person sometimes affects the chance of weather.Based on the physical equation of describing in the present invention, system will be proved effective this, and there is no question about.
Note, although describe according to change storm track (in particular, tropical storm and hurricane) herein, the present invention can be used for usually changing weather.For instance, global weather forecast model can be combined with STRICT algorithm to determine the impact of turbine on arid, rainfall, cloud amount, strong wind and other weather pattern.Can the iterative computation based on STRICT algorithm optionally cutting down turbine exerts oneself to strengthen weather condition.
Although disclose in detail and described the preferred embodiments of the present invention and various alternate embodiment herein, but those skilled in the art can easily understand, can make therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention the various changes in form and details.
Claims (21)
1. for changing the system of track for storm, it comprises:
Multiple weather data sensors, its Real-time Obtaining weather data,
Climatic modeling calculator, it is coupled to described multiple weather data sensor, and receive in real time described weather data and the weather pattern that comprises storm pattern is carried out to modeling,
Storm orbital prediction calculator, it is coupled to described climatic modeling calculator, receive described storm pattern and calculate potential storm track from described climatic modeling calculator, and with iterative manner, multiple turbines are cut down to the situation combination of exerting oneself and add described climatic modeling calculator to, described turbine is cut down the situation combination of exerting oneself and is described the reduction of the generating wind turbine of the different numbers operation of exerting oneself, described storm orbital prediction computer based is cut down in described multiple wind turbines the situation combination of exerting oneself and is received multiple predicted storm patterns from described climatic modeling calculator, and select the wind turbine that produces the most favourable storm track to cut down the situation of exerting oneself, and
Output network, it is coupled to described storm orbital prediction calculator, receive produce described in the described reduction of the most favourable storm track situation of exerting oneself, and the described reduction situation of exerting oneself is sent to wind turbine network, exerts oneself to cut down described wind turbine by the mode of changing best described storm track.
2. system according to claim 1, wherein said storm track computer based is calculated storms in described multiple predicted storm patterns and is destroyed, and selects to produce reduction that minimum storm the destroys situation of exerting oneself.
3. system according to claim 1, wherein said storm track calculator recalculates potential storm track in time in the past, and in response to cutting down through the potential storm orbit adjusting wind turbine recalculating the situation of exerting oneself.
4. system according to claim 1, wherein said wind turbine is cut down the situation of exerting oneself and is comprised that feathering connects one or more in some indivedual power generating wind power turbines or these operations of generating wind turbine group.
5. system according to claim 1, wherein said output network comprises data network, described storm orbital prediction calculator is coupled to multiple generating wind turbine operators by described data network.
6. a system of predicting the track of storm for exerting oneself in response to the reduction of generating wind turbine, it comprises:
Storm orbital prediction device, it is coupled to climatic modeling system, described climatic modeling system receives in real time weather data and the weather pattern that comprises storm pattern is carried out to modeling, described storm orbital prediction device uses for the reduction of the generating wind turbine of the different numbers some combinations that the wind turbine of operation cuts down the situation of exerting oneself of exerting oneself and calculates potential storm track with iterative manner, described storm orbital prediction calculator selects the wind turbine that produces the most favourable storm track to cut down the situation of exerting oneself, and
Output network, it is coupled to described storm orbital prediction calculator, receive produce described in the described reduction of the most favourable storm track situation of exerting oneself, and the described reduction situation of exerting oneself is sent to wind turbine network, to cut down described wind turbine by the mode of changing best described storm track.
7. system according to claim 6, wherein said storm track computer based is calculated storms in described multiple predicted storm patterns and is destroyed, and selects to produce reduction that minimum storm the destroys situation of exerting oneself.
8. system according to claim 7, wherein to destroy be to be destroyed and estimate calculating and calculate based on predict localization to storm, comprises one or more with respect in the position of storm track of wind-force, flood, coastal floods, storm tide and residential area.
9. system according to claim 6, wherein said storm track calculator recalculates potential storm track in time in the past, and in response to cutting down through the potential storm orbit adjusting wind turbine recalculating the situation of exerting oneself.
10. system according to claim 6, wherein said wind turbine is cut down the situation of exerting oneself and is comprised that feathering connects one or more in indivedual generating wind turbines or these operations of generating wind turbine group.
11. systems according to claim 6, wherein said output network comprises data network, described storm orbital prediction calculator is coupled to multiple generating wind turbine operators by described data network.
12. 1 kinds for changing the method for track of storm, and it comprises the following steps:
With multiple weather data sensor Real-time Obtaining weather datas,
In the climatic modeling calculator that is coupled to described multiple weather data sensor the described weather data of real-time reception, the weather pattern that comprises storm pattern is carried out to modeling,
In the storm orbital prediction calculator that is coupled to described climatic modeling calculator, receive described storm pattern and calculate potential storm track from described climatic modeling calculator,
With iterative manner, multiple turbines are cut down to the situation of exerting oneself and add described climatic modeling calculator to, described multiple turbines are cut down the situation of exerting oneself and are described the reduction of the generating wind turbine of the different numbers operation of exerting oneself,
Described storm orbital prediction computer based is cut down in described multiple wind turbines the situation combination of exerting oneself and is received multiple predicted storm patterns from described climatic modeling calculator, and selects the wind turbine that produces the most favourable storm track to cut down the situation of exerting oneself, and
From be coupled to the reception of described storm orbital prediction calculator produce described in the output network of described reduction situation of the most favourable storm track the described reduction situation of exerting oneself is sent to wind turbine network, exert oneself to cut down described wind turbine by the mode of changing best described storm track.
13. methods according to claim 12, wherein said storm track computer based is calculated storms in described multiple predicted storm patterns and is destroyed, and selects to produce reduction that minimum storm the destroys situation of exerting oneself.
14. methods according to claim 13, wherein to destroy be to be destroyed and estimate calculating and calculate based on predict localization to storm, comprises one or more with respect in the position of storm track of wind-force, flood, coastal floods, storm tide and residential area.
15. methods according to claim 12, wherein said storm track calculator recalculates potential storm track in time in the past, and in response to cutting down through the potential storm orbit adjusting wind turbine recalculating the situation of exerting oneself.
16. methods according to claim 12, wherein said wind turbine is cut down the situation of exerting oneself and is comprised that feathering connects one or more in some indivedual power generating wind power turbines or these operations of generating wind turbine group.
17. methods according to claim 12, wherein said output network comprises data network, described storm orbital prediction calculator is coupled to multiple generating wind turbine operators by described data network.
18. 1 kinds for changing the method for weather, and it comprises the following steps:
With multiple weather data sensor Real-time Obtaining weather datas,
In the climatic modeling calculator that is coupled to described multiple weather data sensor the described weather data of real-time reception, weather pattern is carried out to modeling,
In the weather pattern predictive computer that is coupled to described climatic modeling calculator, receive described weather pattern and calculate potential weather pattern from described climatic modeling calculator,
With iterative manner, multiple turbines are cut down to the situation of exerting oneself and add described climatic modeling calculator to, described multiple turbines are cut down the situation of exerting oneself and are described the reduction of the generating wind turbine of the different numbers operation of exerting oneself,
Described weather pattern predictive computer is cut down based on described multiple wind turbines the situation combination of exerting oneself and is received multiple predicted the weather patterns from described climatic modeling calculator, and the wind turbine of selecting to produce favo(u)rable weather pattern cuts down the situation of exerting oneself, and
From be coupled to the reception of described weather pattern predictive computer produce described in the exert oneself output network of situation of the described reduction of favo(u)rable weather pattern described reduction situation is sent to wind turbine network, exert oneself to cut down described wind turbine by the mode of changing best weather.
19. methods according to claim 18, wherein said weather forecasting calculator recalculates potential weather pattern in time in the past, and cuts down in response to adjusting wind turbine through the potential weather pattern recalculating the situation of exerting oneself.
20. methods according to claim 18, wherein said wind turbine is cut down the situation of exerting oneself and is comprised that feathering connects one or more in some indivedual power generating wind power turbines or these operations of generating wind turbine group.
21. methods according to claim 18, wherein said output network comprises data network, described weather pattern predictive computer is coupled to multiple generating wind turbine operators by described data network.
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| CN113570101A (en) * | 2020-06-19 | 2021-10-29 | 中国气象局上海台风研究所(上海市气象科学研究所) | Typhoon symmetry analysis system and analysis method |
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| WO2018193324A1 (en) * | 2017-03-20 | 2018-10-25 | Sunit Tyagi | Surface modification control stations in a globally distributed array for dynamically adjusting atmospheric, terrestrial and oceanic properties |
| US10888051B2 (en) * | 2017-04-11 | 2021-01-12 | Thomas Peter DeFelice | Intelligent systems for weather modification programs |
| US11381082B2 (en) | 2017-05-11 | 2022-07-05 | Bull Sas | Method of managing electricity providing in a computers cluster |
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