CN104092241A - Wind power consumption ability analysis method considering standby requirement - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention provides a wind power consumption ability analysis method considering the standby requirement. The method includes the following steps that a standby requirement probability distribution model is established after wind power integration is conducted; standby constraint conditions are determined; a production simulation model considering the standby requirement is established; according to the generated simulation model, the wind power consumption ability is analyzed. According to the method, the standby requirement probability distribution model is established after wind power integration is conducted, the optimal required reserve capacity is obtained after wind power integration is conducted so that a start-up mode and a service capacity plan curve of a unit can be optimized, the wind power consumption ability can be improved, and a reference is provided for regional power grid planning.

Description

A kind of wind-powered electricity generation of considering stand-by requirement capability analysis method of dissolving

Technical field

The invention belongs to generation of electricity by new energy planning technology field, be specifically related to a kind of wind-powered electricity generation of considering stand-by requirement capability analysis method of dissolving.

Background technology

China's wind-resources is concentrated, scale is large, but away from load center, is difficult to on-site elimination.And, " three Norths " area that wind-powered electricity generation is concentrated, power supply architecture is single, flexible power supply proportion is low, although grid connection capacity acquires a certain degree, abandons wind serious, the whole nation " abandoning wind " rate in 2012 is about 17%, and wind-powered electricity generation energy output only accounts for 2% of national gross generation, and ratio is also very little.

Along with the fast development of wind-powered electricity generation, system increases day by day to demand for subsequent use, need electric power system other types unit to provide more for subsequent use, and the computational methods for subsequent use of operation are taking Load Forecasting error as main now, do not consider the wind-powered electricity generation predicated error in a large amount of wind-electricity integration situations, therefore due to system do not carry out that alternative plan causes to abandon wind phenomenon more serious.

Electric power system production simulation model can be accomplished the production simulation of annual 8760h, can consider that the part throttle characteristics power system operating mode of different periods, all kinds of power supply operation plan arrange electricity sent outside situation etc., implement unified economic dispatch based on all types of unit marginal costs, calculate wind-powered electricity generation in the space of dissolving of each period, thus complete and accurately weigh wind-powered electricity generation in each period and the annual ability of dissolving.And, carry out by hour production simulation in, meeting under technology and economic dispatch constraints, reduce and abandon wind to greatest extent.Can simulate and change under the various boundary of the utilization of resources, the dissolve maximum capacity of wind-powered electricity generation of system.

Summary of the invention

In order to overcome above-mentioned the deficiencies in the prior art, the invention provides a kind of wind-powered electricity generation of considering stand-by requirement capability analysis method of dissolving, set up the electric power system production simulation model of considering Reserve Constraint condition after stand-by requirement probability Distribution Model after wind-electricity integration and wind-electricity integration, in order to the analytical system wind-powered electricity generation ability of dissolving, guidance system economical operation.

In order to realize foregoing invention object, the present invention takes following technical scheme:

The invention provides a kind of wind-powered electricity generation of considering stand-by requirement capability analysis method of dissolving, said method comprising the steps of:

Step 1: set up the stand-by requirement probability Distribution Model after wind-electricity integration;

Step 2: determine Reserve Constraint condition;

Step 3: set up the production simulation model of considering stand-by requirement;

Step 4: the wind-powered electricity generation ability of dissolving is analyzed according to generating simulation model.

Described step 1 comprises the following steps:

Step 1-1: calculate before wind-electricity integration, Load Probability p is lost in electric power system _lLD;

Before wind-electricity integration, the spinning reserve demand of electric power system comes from the fluctuation of load, roughly Normal Distribution of Load Forecasting error, and near predicted value, the probability of random fluctuation belongs to normal distribution; Near the probability density function f (x) that load fluctuates predicted value μ is:

$f\left(x\right)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\mathrm{\π}}\mathrm{\σ}}\exp (-\frac{{(x-\mathrm{\μ})}^2}{2{\mathrm{\σ}}^2})---\left(1\right)$

Wherein, the variance that σ is normal distribution;

The probability of deficiency for subsequent use is that Load Probability p is lost in electric power system _lLDbe expressed as:

$p_{\mathrm{LLD}}={\∫}_{L_{\mathrm{MW}}+R_1}^{+\∞}\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\mathrm{\π}}{\mathrm{\σ}}_{\mathrm{LOAD}}}\exp (-\frac{{R_1}^2}{2{{\mathrm{\σ}}_{\mathrm{LOAD}}}^2})---\left(2\right)$

Wherein, L _mWfor Forecasting of Power System Load value, R ₁for reserved backed-up value, σ _lOADfor near the variance of loading and fluctuating predicted value;

Step 1-2: calculate the load stand-by requirement R after wind-electricity integration ₂;

The variance of supposing wind-powered electricity generation prediction after wind-electricity integration is σ _wIND, the total variances sigma causing due to Load Forecasting error and wind-powered electricity generation prediction error _tOTALbe expressed as:

${\mathrm{\σ}}_{\mathrm{TOTAL}}=\sqrt{{{\mathrm{\σ}}_{\mathrm{WIND}}}^2+{{\mathrm{\σ}}_{\mathrm{LOAD}}}^2}---\left(3\right)$

Suppose that wind-powered electricity generation grid connection capacity is W _mW, equivalent load meets normal distribution, for maintaining the mistake Load Probability p identical with the electric power system of wind-electricity integration money _lLD, obtain now corresponding equivalent load critical value EQUL according to gaussian distribution table _mWfor:

Wherein, for the inverse function of normal distyribution function;

Stand-by requirement R now loads ₂obtained by following formula:

R ₂＝EQUL _MW-R ₁ (5)

Step 1-3: determine stand-by requirement probability distribution rule;

Step 1-3-1: by the amount of unbalance producing when energy output or load do not conform to load with actual generated output when planning that is defined as for subsequent use, now for the extra power capacity that maintains Power Systems balance is defined as reserve capacity;

Consideration generation amount of unbalance is that the factor of stand-by requirement comprises that Load Forecasting error, wind-powered electricity generation prediction error and conventional unit trip suddenly;

1) the upwards amount of unbalance Imbalance that Load Forecasting error produces ⁺ _loadwith downward amount of unbalance Imbalance ^- _loadbe expressed as:

Imbalance ⁺ _load＝L _forest*Rand(σ) (6)

Imbalance ^- _load＝L _forest*Rand(-σ) (7)

Wherein, L _forestfor Load Forecasting value;

2) the upwards amount of unbalance Imbalance that wind-powered electricity generation prediction error produces ⁺ _windwith downward amount of unbalance Imbalance ^- _windbe expressed as:

Imbalance ⁺ _wind＝W _forest*Rand(σ) (8)

Imbalance ^- _wind＝W _forest*Rand(-σ) (9)

Wherein, W _forestfor wind-powered electricity generation predicted value;

3) the unexpected tripping operation of conventional unit only produces upwards stand-by requirement, total unit capacity C that loses _outfor:

$C_{\mathrm{out}}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{C}_i*x_i---\left(10\right)$

Wherein, total number of units that n is conventional unit, C _ifor the capacity of the conventional unit of i platform in electric power system, x _iit is the probability of the conventional unit tripping of i platform;

Step 1-3-2: by the amount of unbalance of the different periods of above three kinds of factors generation vector addition respectively, obtain the total amount of unbalance of electric power system of day part, have:

$R^{\mathrm{up}}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{C}_i*x_i+{{\mathrm{Imbalance}}^{+}}_{\mathrm{load}}+{{\mathrm{Imbalance}}^{+}}_{\mathrm{wind}}---\left(11\right)$

R ^dn＝Imbalance ^- _load+Imbalance ^- _wind (12)

Wherein, R ^upand R ^dnbe respectively stand-by requirement up and down, by sunykatuib analysis, can obtain the total amount of unbalance of electric power system is stand-by requirement probability distribution rule.

In described step 2, Reserve Constraint condition comprises equality constraint, inequality constraints and Reserve Constraint;

1) equality constraint comprises electric equilibrium constraint and the interior heat balance constraint of electric power system in electric power system;

2) inequality constraints comprises conventional unit output constraint and conventional Unit Combination restrain condition;

Described conventional unit output constraint comprises fired power generating unit units limits and Hydropower Unit units limits;

Described conventional Unit Combination restrain condition comprises conventional unit generation power constraint, the constraint of conventional unit climbing rate and conventional Unit Commitment time-constrain;

3) Reserve Constraint comprises upwards Constraint for subsequent use and downward Constraint for subsequent use.

In described electric power system, electric equilibrium constraint representation is:

$\underset{i\∈I_r}{\mathrm{\Σ}}{P}_{i,t}+\underset{r\∈R}{\mathrm{\Σ}}((1-L_{\mathrm{loss}})\·P_{\mathrm{trans}})=P_{r,t}^{\mathrm{load}}+\underset{i\∈I_{\mathrm{elecsto}}}{\mathrm{\Σ}}{P}_{i,t}^{\mathrm{stoload}},\∀t\∈T,r\∈R---\left(13\right)$

Wherein, in formula equal sign left side for all conventional units in the r of region send power and deduct loss after with the exchange power of exterior domain, right side is load in the r of region and the electric energy storage device power as load, and P _i,tbe the conventional unit of i platform at the generated output in t moment, L _lossfor line loss, P _transfor transmission-line power, for t moment load power in the r of region, for electric energy storage device is as the power of load, I _rfor all participation scheduling units, I _elecstofor all electric energy storage devices are as the quantity of load, R is electric equilibrium district, and T is whole calculation interval;

In described electric power system, heat balance constraint representation is:

$\underset{i\∈I_a}{\mathrm{\Σ}}{H}_{i,t}=H_{a,t}^{\mathrm{load}}+\underset{i\∈I_{\mathrm{heat}\_\mathrm{sto}}}{\mathrm{\Σ}}{H}_{i,t}^{\mathrm{sto}\_\mathrm{load}},\∀t\∈T,a\∈A---\left(14\right)$

Wherein, in formula, exert oneself for all heat energy in regional a in left side and, right side be heat load in regional a with hot energy storage device as the power of loading, H _i,tbe the conventional unit of i platform in the thermal power in t moment, for t moment heat load power in regional a, for hot energy storage device power of t moment in regional a, I _afor all heat supply unit numbers, I _{heat_sto}for hot energy storage device in regional a is as the quantity of heat load, T is whole calculation interval, and A is heat balance district.

In described fired power generating unit units limits, the heat-supply type fired power generating unit in thermal power plant comprises back pressure type thermoelectricity unit and bleeder thermoelectricity unit;

(1) back pressure type thermoelectricity unit operating characteristic is as follows:

$P_{i,t}^{\mathrm{THbp}}=H_{i,t}^{\mathrm{THbp}}\·C_{\mathrm{bi}}^{\mathrm{THbp}}---\left(15\right)$

Wherein, with be respectively i platform back pressure type thermoelectricity unit in generated output and the thermal power in t moment, be the electricity-Re of the i platform back pressure type thermoelectricity unit ratio of exerting oneself;

(2) bleeder thermoelectricity unit operating characteristic is as follows:

$H_{i,t}^{\mathrm{THex}}\·C_{\mathrm{bi}}^{\mathrm{THex}}\≤P_{i,t}^{\mathrm{THex}}\≤P_{i,t}^{\mathrm{THex}}-H_{i,t}^{\mathrm{THex}}\·C_{\mathrm{vi}}^{\mathrm{THex}}---\left(16\right)$

Wherein, with corresponding minimum electrical power added value and the highest electrical power reduction value while being respectively the every increase of i platform bleeder thermoelectricity unit one unit thermal power, with be generated output and the thermal power of i platform bleeder thermoelectricity unit in the t moment;

In described Hydropower Unit units limits, the Hydropower Unit of hydroelectric plant comprises radial-flow type Hydropower Unit and reservoir formula Hydropower Unit;

(1) operating characteristic of radial-flow type Hydropower Unit is as follows:

$P_{i,t}^r\≤S^r\·{\mathrm{FLH}}^r\·\frac{P_{i,t}^{\mathrm{rh}}}{\underset{i,t}{\mathrm{\Σ}}(P_{i,t}^{\mathrm{rh}}\·1)}---\left(17\right)$

Wherein, be i platform radial-flow type Hydropower Unit at the generated output in t moment, S ^rfor the installed capacity of radial-flow type Hydropower Unit, FLH ^rcompletely send out and utilize hourage for water power, be i platform radial-flow type Hydropower Unit at the generated output mean value in t moment, be the energy output of i platform radial-flow type Hydropower Unit in the t moment;

(2) operating characteristic of reservoir formula Hydropower Unit is as follows:

$\begin{array}{c}{W}_s+W_{\mathrm{in}}-\underset{t}{\mathrm{\Σ}}{P}_t^{\mathrm{rese}}\≥W_{s+1}\\ W_{\min }\≤W_s\≤W_{\max }\end{array}---\left(18\right)$

Wherein, W _sfor the energy output that begins at the beginning of reservoir formula Hydropower Unit this week, W _incan energy output for what flow into reservoir formula Hydropower Unit this week, for reservoir formula Hydropower Unit actual power generation this week, W _s+1for the reservoir formula Hydropower Unit energy output that begins early next week, W _maxand W _minfor reservoir formula Hydropower Unit can energy output bound.

Described conventional unit generation power constraint is expressed as:

$P_{i,t}^{\min }\≤P_{i,t}\≤P_{i,t}^{\max }---\left(19\right)$

Wherein, with be respectively the generated output bound of the conventional unit of i platform in the t moment;

Conventional unit climbing rate constraint representation is:

$\mathrm{\Δ}{P}_{i,t}\≤\mathrm{\Δ}{P}_{i,t}^{\max }---\left(20\right)$

Wherein, Δ P _i,tbe the conventional unit of i platform at the generated output changing value in t moment, be that the conventional unit of i platform changes maximum at the generated output in t moment;

Conventional Unit Commitment time-constrain is expressed as:

T ^on≥T ^{min on}，T ^off≥T ^{min off} (21)

Wherein, T ^onand T ^offbe respectively conventional unit starting and dwell time, T ^{min on}and T ^{min off}be respectively conventional unit starting and dwell time lower limit.

Upwards Constraint for subsequent use and downward Constraint for subsequent use are expressed as:

$\mathrm{Cap}{P}_{a,i}\·V{\mathrm{Pon}}_{a,i}-V{P}_{a,i}\≥\underset{i}{\mathrm{\Σ}}V{R}_{a,i}^{\mathrm{up}}---\left(22\right)$

$V{P}_{a,i}-\mathrm{Cap\; P}{\min }_{a,i}\·V{\mathrm{Pon}}_{a,i}\≥\underset{i}{\mathrm{\Σ}}V{R}_{a,i}^{\mathrm{dn}}---\left(23\right)$

Wherein, CapP _a,ibe respectively the unit capacity of the conventional unit of i platform in a region, VPon _a,irepresent that in a region, whether the conventional unit of i platform is online, VP _a,ifor the conventional unit output of i platform in a region, for the available upwards regulated quantity of the conventional unit of i platform in a region, CapP min _a,ifor the minimum load of the conventional unit of i platform in a region, for the available downward regulated quantity of the conventional unit of i platform in a region.

In described step 3, the target function of production simulation model is as follows:

QOBJ＝min{S _obj+Cost} (24)

Wherein, QOBJ is production simulated target value, S _objfor production cost, it is investment cost, taxation total cost, the change of elasticity electric loading expense, elastic hot changing load expense and the infeasible expense sum of punishing of fuel cost, operation and maintenance cost, reservoir formula charges for water and electricity use, transmission cost, generating or the investment cost of store electricity, the newly-built investment expenses of taxation, transmission line, and taxation total cost comprises discharge fee, fuel tax, generating tax and thermoelectricity tax; Cost is stand-by cost, and has:

$\mathrm{Cost}=\underset{i}{\mathrm{\Σ}}{\mathrm{Cost}}_i\·(R_t^{\mathrm{up}.i}-R_t^{\mathrm{dn}.i})\·{\mathrm{Prob}}^i---\left(25\right)$

Wherein, Prob ⁱprovide probability for subsequent use, Cost for the conventional unit of i platform _ifor corresponding to Prob ⁱstand-by cost is provided, with the i platform reserve capacity up and down providing in conventional unit t moment is provided.

In described step 4, according to the production simulation model of considering stand-by requirement after the wind-electricity integration obtaining, by changing the wind-powered electricity generation electric weight in production simulation model, can analyze the different stand-by requirements that produce under different wind-electricity integration capacity, thereby can analyze the impact on stand-by requirement after wind-electricity integration; Calculate the wind-powered electricity generation amount of abandoning under different wind-electricity integration capacity sights by production simulation, and then analyze the impact that wind-powered electricity generation is dissolved for subsequent use.

Compared with prior art, beneficial effect of the present invention is:

The probability Distribution Model of stand-by requirement after the wind-electricity integration that the present invention passes through to set up, obtain required reserve capacity after optimum wind-electricity integration, thereby can optimize start-up mode and the service capacity Plan Curve of unit, reach and improve the dissolve object of ability of wind-powered electricity generation, for the planning of regional power grid wind-powered electricity generation provides reference.

Brief description of the drawings

Fig. 1 is the wind-powered electricity generation of considering stand-by requirement in the embodiment of the present invention capability analysis method flow diagram of dissolving;

Fig. 2 is back pressure type thermoelectricity unit operating characteristic schematic diagram in the embodiment of the present invention;

Fig. 3 is bleeder thermoelectricity unit operating characteristic schematic diagram in the embodiment of the present invention;

Fig. 4 calculates in the embodiment of the present invention with equivalent probability distribution schematic diagram;

Fig. 5 is load stand-by requirement and the unit stand-by requirement schematic diagram causing after wind-electricity integration in the embodiment of the present invention;

Whether Fig. 6 provides under different sights in the embodiment of the present invention under spare condition, to abandon wind-powered electricity generation amount schematic diagram;

Fig. 7 is all types of unit generation amount schematic diagrames under different sights in the embodiment of the present invention;

Fig. 8 is the situation of presence and negative stand-by requirement probability distribution schematic diagram under wind-powered electricity generation sight at high proportion in the embodiment of the present invention;

Fig. 9 is the situation of presence and positive stand-by requirement probability distribution schematic diagram under wind-powered electricity generation sight at high proportion in the embodiment of the present invention;

Figure 10 is all types of units schematic diagram of not exerting oneself in the same time under different sights in the embodiment of the present invention.

Embodiment

Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the present invention is described in further detail.

The fluctuation that wind-powered electricity generation is exerted oneself and unsteadiness, make that large-scale wind power is grid-connected will roll up the spinning reserve demand of system.Do not consider sufficient spinning reserve capacity resource, wind-powered electricity generation is in service by real-time electric power balance and the power network safety operation of serious threat electrical network in actual schedule.Therefore, need to fully expect the wind-powered electricity generation system reserve capacity demand that may cause that fluctuates.The power supply of the certain proportion quick adjustment of need to making overall planning (for example firing machine, hydroelectric station that adjusting function is high), meets the demands such as system level second, minute level, hour level and emergency duty.

Consider the impact of three kinds of factors on reserve capacity demand of tripping suddenly of wind-powered electricity generation prediction error, Load Forecasting error, unit, set up the probabilistic model of Reserve Ancillary Service changes in demand after wind-electricity integration; As Fig. 1, the invention provides a kind of wind-powered electricity generation of considering stand-by requirement capability analysis method of dissolving, said method comprising the steps of:

Step 1: set up the stand-by requirement probability Distribution Model after wind-electricity integration;

Step 2: determine Reserve Constraint condition;

Step 3: set up the production simulation model of considering stand-by requirement;

Step 4: the wind-powered electricity generation ability of dissolving is analyzed according to generating simulation model.

Described step 1 comprises the following steps:

Step 1-1: calculate before wind-electricity integration, Load Probability p is lost in electric power system _lLD;

Before wind-electricity integration, the spinning reserve demand of electric power system comes from the fluctuation of load, roughly Normal Distribution of Load Forecasting error, and near predicted value, the probability of random fluctuation belongs to normal distribution; Near the probability density function f (x) that load fluctuates predicted value μ is:

$f\left(x\right)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\mathrm{\π}}\mathrm{\σ}}\exp (-\frac{{(x-\mathrm{\μ})}^2}{2{\mathrm{\σ}}^2})---\left(1\right)$

Wherein, the variance that σ is normal distribution;

The probability of deficiency for subsequent use is that Load Probability p is lost in electric power system _lLDbe expressed as:

$p_{\mathrm{LLD}}={\∫}_{L_{\mathrm{MW}}+R_1}^{+\∞}\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\mathrm{\π}}{\mathrm{\σ}}_{\mathrm{LOAD}}}\exp (-\frac{{R_1}^2}{2{{\mathrm{\σ}}_{\mathrm{LOAD}}}^2})---\left(2\right)$

Wherein, L _mWfor Forecasting of Power System Load value, R ₁for reserved backed-up value, σ _lOADfor near the variance of loading and fluctuating predicted value;

Step 1-2: calculate the load stand-by requirement R after wind-electricity integration ₂;

The variance of supposing wind-powered electricity generation prediction after wind-electricity integration is σ _wIND, the total variances sigma causing due to Load Forecasting error and wind-powered electricity generation prediction error _tOTALbe expressed as:

${\mathrm{\σ}}_{\mathrm{TOTAL}}=\sqrt{{{\mathrm{\σ}}_{\mathrm{WIND}}}^2+{{\mathrm{\σ}}_{\mathrm{LOAD}}}^2}---\left(3\right)$

Suppose that wind-powered electricity generation grid connection capacity is W _mW, equivalent load meets normal distribution, for maintaining the mistake Load Probability p identical with the electric power system of wind-electricity integration money _lLD, obtain now corresponding equivalent load critical value EQUL according to gaussian distribution table _mWfor:

Wherein, for the inverse function of normal distyribution function;

Stand-by requirement R now loads ₂obtained by following formula:

R ₂＝EQUL _MW-R ₁ (5)

Step 1-3: determine stand-by requirement probability distribution rule;

Step 1-3-1: for Reserve Ancillary Service after carrying out wind-electricity integration is to the impact analysis of dissolving, by the amount of unbalance producing when energy output or load do not conform to load with actual generated output when planning that is defined as for subsequent use, now for the extra power capacity that maintains Power Systems balance is defined as reserve capacity;

Consideration generation amount of unbalance is that the factor of stand-by requirement comprises that Load Forecasting error, wind-powered electricity generation prediction error and conventional unit trip suddenly;

1) the upwards amount of unbalance Imbalance that Load Forecasting error produces ⁺ _loadwith downward amount of unbalance Imbalance ^- _loadbe expressed as:

Imbalance ⁺ _load＝L _forest*Rand(σ) (6)

Imbalance ^- _load＝L _forest*Rand(-σ) (7)

Wherein, L _forestfor Load Forecasting value;

2) the upwards amount of unbalance Imbalance that wind-powered electricity generation prediction error produces ⁺ _windwith downward amount of unbalance Imbalance ^- _windbe expressed as:

Imbalance ⁺ _wind＝W _forest*Rand(σ) (8)

Imbalance ^- _wind＝W _forest*Rand(-σ) (9)

Wherein, W _forestfor wind-powered electricity generation predicted value;

3) the unexpected tripping operation of conventional unit only produces upwards stand-by requirement, total unit capacity C that loses _outfor:

$C_{\mathrm{out}}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{C}_i*x_i---\left(10\right)$

Wherein, total number of units that n is conventional unit, C _ifor the capacity of the conventional unit of i platform in electric power system, x _iit is the probability of the conventional unit tripping of i platform;

Step 1-3-2: by the amount of unbalance of the different periods of above three kinds of factors generation vector addition respectively, obtain the total amount of unbalance of electric power system of day part, have:

$R^{\mathrm{up}}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{C}_i*x_i+{{\mathrm{Imbalance}}^{+}}_{\mathrm{load}}+{{\mathrm{Imbalance}}^{+}}_{\mathrm{wind}}---\left(11\right)$

R ^dn＝Imbalance ^- _load+Imbalance ^- _wind (12)

Wherein, R ^upand R ^dnbe respectively stand-by requirement up and down, by sunykatuib analysis, can obtain the total amount of unbalance of electric power system is stand-by requirement probability distribution rule.

In described step 2, Reserve Constraint condition comprises equality constraint, inequality constraints and Reserve Constraint;

1) equality constraint comprises electric equilibrium constraint and the interior heat balance constraint of electric power system in electric power system;

2) inequality constraints comprises conventional unit output constraint and conventional Unit Combination restrain condition;

Described conventional unit output constraint comprises fired power generating unit units limits and Hydropower Unit units limits;

Described conventional Unit Combination restrain condition comprises conventional unit generation power constraint, the constraint of conventional unit climbing rate and conventional Unit Commitment time-constrain;

3) Reserve Constraint comprises upwards Constraint for subsequent use and downward Constraint for subsequent use.

In described electric power system, electric equilibrium constraint representation is:

$\underset{i\∈I_r}{\mathrm{\Σ}}{P}_{i,t}+\underset{r\∈R}{\mathrm{\Σ}}((1-L_{\mathrm{loss}})\·P_{\mathrm{trans}})=P_{r,t}^{\mathrm{load}}+\underset{i\∈I_{\mathrm{elecsto}}}{\mathrm{\Σ}}{P}_{i,t}^{\mathrm{stoload}},\∀t\∈T,r\∈R---\left(13\right)$

Wherein, in formula equal sign left side for all conventional units in the r of region send power and deduct loss after with the exchange power of exterior domain, right side is load in the r of region and the electric energy storage device power as load, and P _i,tbe the conventional unit of i platform at the generated output in t moment, L _lossfor line loss, P _transfor transmission-line power, for t moment load power in the r of region, for electric energy storage device is as the power of load, I _rfor all participation scheduling units, I _elecstofor all electric energy storage devices are as the quantity of load, R is electric equilibrium district, and T is whole calculation interval;

In described electric power system, heat balance constraint representation is:

$\underset{i\∈I_a}{\mathrm{\Σ}}{H}_{i,t}=H_{a,t}^{\mathrm{load}}+\underset{i\∈I_{\mathrm{heat}\_\mathrm{sto}}}{\mathrm{\Σ}}{H}_{i,t}^{\mathrm{sto}\_\mathrm{load}},\∀t\∈T,a\∈A---\left(14\right)$

Wherein, in formula, exert oneself for all heat energy in regional a in left side and, right side be heat load in regional a with hot energy storage device as the power of loading, H _i,tbe the conventional unit of i platform in the thermal power in t moment, for t moment heat load power in regional a, for hot energy storage device power of t moment in regional a, I _afor all heat supply unit numbers, I _{heat_sto}for hot energy storage device in regional a is as the quantity of heat load, T is whole calculation interval, and A is heat balance district.

In described fired power generating unit units limits, the heat-supply type fired power generating unit in thermal power plant comprises back pressure type thermoelectricity unit and bleeder thermoelectricity unit;

(1), as Fig. 2, back pressure type thermoelectricity unit operating characteristic is as follows:

$P_{i,t}^{\mathrm{THbp}}=H_{i,t}^{\mathrm{THbp}}\·C_{\mathrm{bi}}^{\mathrm{THbp}}---\left(15\right)$

Wherein, with be respectively i platform back pressure type thermoelectricity unit in generated output and the thermal power in t moment, be the electricity-Re of the i platform back pressure type thermoelectricity unit ratio of exerting oneself;

(2), as Fig. 3, bleeder thermoelectricity unit operating characteristic is as follows:

$H_{i,t}^{\mathrm{THex}}\·C_{\mathrm{bi}}^{\mathrm{THex}}\≤P_{i,t}^{\mathrm{THex}}\≤P_{i,t}^{\mathrm{THex}}-H_{i,t}^{\mathrm{THex}}\·C_{\mathrm{vi}}^{\mathrm{THex}}---\left(16\right)$

Wherein, with corresponding minimum electrical power added value and the highest electrical power reduction value while being respectively the every increase of i platform bleeder thermoelectricity unit one unit thermal power, with be generated output and the thermal power of i platform bleeder thermoelectricity unit in the t moment;

In described Hydropower Unit units limits, the Hydropower Unit of hydroelectric plant comprises radial-flow type Hydropower Unit and reservoir formula Hydropower Unit;

(1) operating characteristic of radial-flow type Hydropower Unit is as follows:

$P_{i,t}^r\≤S^r\·{\mathrm{FLH}}^r\·\frac{P_{i,t}^{\mathrm{rh}}}{\underset{i,t}{\mathrm{\Σ}}(P_{i,t}^{\mathrm{rh}}\·1)}---\left(17\right)$

Wherein, be i platform radial-flow type Hydropower Unit at the generated output in t moment, S ^rfor the installed capacity of radial-flow type Hydropower Unit, FLH ^rcompletely send out and utilize hourage for water power, be i platform radial-flow type Hydropower Unit at the generated output mean value in t moment, be the energy output of i platform radial-flow type Hydropower Unit in the t moment;

(2) operating characteristic of reservoir formula Hydropower Unit is as follows:

$\begin{array}{c}{W}_s+W_{\mathrm{in}}-\underset{t}{\mathrm{\Σ}}{P}_t^{\mathrm{rese}}\≥W_{s+1}\\ W_{\min }\≤W_s\≤W_{\max }\end{array}---\left(18\right)$

Wherein, W _sfor the energy output that begins at the beginning of reservoir formula Hydropower Unit this week, W _incan energy output for what flow into reservoir formula Hydropower Unit this week, for reservoir formula Hydropower Unit actual power generation this week, W _s+1for the reservoir formula Hydropower Unit energy output that begins early next week, W _maxand W _minfor reservoir formula Hydropower Unit can energy output bound.

Energy storage device power producing characteristics:

$S_{i,t+1}^{\mathrm{level}}=S_{i,t}^{\mathrm{level}}+P_{i,t}^{\mathrm{stoload}}-P_{i,t}^{\mathrm{sto}}/L_i^{\mathrm{sto}},\∀i\∈I_{\mathrm{elecsto}};t\∈T$

$S_{i,t}^{\mathrm{level}}\≤S_{i,t}^{\mathrm{sto}},\∀i\∈I_{\mathrm{elecsto}};t\∈T$

$P_{i,t}^{\mathrm{stoload}}\≤S_{i,t}^L,\∀i\∈I_{\mathrm{elecsto}};t\∈T$

In formula, first equation is expressed energy storage device and is equaled the generated output/circulation losses energy storage level of t moment energy storage device and the load power of t moment energy storage device and that deduct t moment energy storage device in the energy storage level in t+1 moment; Second inequality represents that the energy storage level of t moment energy storage device is less than or equal to the total capacity of energy storage device; The 3rd inequality represents that the load power of t moment energy storage device is less than or equal to the load capacity of energy storage device.

Described conventional unit generation power constraint is expressed as:

$P_{i,t}^{\min }\≤P_{i,t}\≤P_{i,t}^{\max }---\left(19\right)$

Wherein, with be respectively the generated output bound of the conventional unit of i platform in the t moment;

Conventional unit climbing rate constraint representation is:

$\mathrm{\Δ}{P}_{i,t}\≤\mathrm{\Δ}{P}_{i,t}^{\max }---\left(20\right)$

Wherein, Δ P _i,tbe the conventional unit of i platform at the generated output changing value in t moment, be that the conventional unit of i platform changes maximum at the generated output in t moment;

Conventional Unit Commitment time-constrain is expressed as:

T ^on≥T ^{min on}，T ^off≥T ^{min off} (21)

Wherein, T ^onand T ^offbe respectively conventional unit starting and dwell time, T ^{min on}and T ^{min off}be respectively conventional unit starting and dwell time lower limit.

Upwards Constraint for subsequent use and downward Constraint for subsequent use are expressed as:

$\mathrm{Cap}{P}_{a,i}\·V{\mathrm{Pon}}_{a,i}-V{P}_{a,i}\≥\underset{i}{\mathrm{\Σ}}V{R}_{a,i}^{\mathrm{up}}---\left(22\right)$

$V{P}_{a,i}-\mathrm{Cap\; P}{\min }_{a,i}\·V{\mathrm{Pon}}_{a,i}\≥\underset{i}{\mathrm{\Σ}}V{R}_{a,i}^{\mathrm{dn}}---\left(23\right)$

Wherein, CapP _a,ibe respectively the unit capacity of the conventional unit of i platform in a region, VPon _a,irepresent that in a region, whether the conventional unit of i platform is online, VP _a,ifor the conventional unit output of i platform in a region, for the available upwards regulated quantity of the conventional unit of i platform in a region, CapP min _a,ifor the minimum load of the conventional unit of i platform in a region, for the available downward regulated quantity of the conventional unit of i platform in a region.

For convenience of calculation, become stairstepping as shown in Figure 4 to distribute the probability distribution equivalence obtaining above, wherein dotted line is the probability of error, Q1, Q2, Q3 are the Probability Point (representing probability curve with weighting curve for convenience of calculation) of getting.Replace probability to calculate with weight.Be the total reserve capacity demand of system at the total amount of unbalance of system that can obtain by above calculating producing because above-mentioned three's uncertain factor is common, set up on this basis and take into account wind-powered electricity generation for subsequent use and dissolve and analyze production simulation model.

Therefore, the target function of the production simulation model in step 3 is as follows:

QOBJ＝min{S _obj+Cost} (24)

Wherein, QOBJ is production simulated target value, S _objfor production cost, it is investment cost, taxation total cost, the change of elasticity electric loading expense, elastic hot changing load expense and the infeasible expense sum of punishing of fuel cost, operation and maintenance cost, reservoir formula charges for water and electricity use, transmission cost, generating or the investment cost of store electricity, the newly-built investment expenses of taxation, transmission line, and taxation total cost comprises discharge fee, fuel tax, generating tax and thermoelectricity tax; Cost is stand-by cost, and has:

$\mathrm{Cost}=\underset{i}{\mathrm{\Σ}}{\mathrm{Cost}}_i\·(R_t^{\mathrm{up}.i}-R_t^{\mathrm{dn}.i})\·{\mathrm{Prob}}^i---\left(25\right)$

Wherein, Prob ⁱprovide probability for subsequent use, Cost for the conventional unit of i platform _ifor corresponding to Prob ⁱstand-by cost is provided, with the i platform reserve capacity up and down providing in conventional unit t moment is provided.

In described step 4, according to the production simulation model of considering stand-by requirement after the wind-electricity integration obtaining, by changing the wind-powered electricity generation electric weight in production simulation model, can analyze the different stand-by requirements that produce under different wind-electricity integration capacity, thereby can analyze the impact on stand-by requirement after wind-electricity integration; Calculate the wind-powered electricity generation amount of abandoning under different wind-electricity integration capacity sights by production simulation, and then analyze the impact that wind-powered electricity generation is dissolved for subsequent use.

Finally should be noted that: above embodiment is only in order to illustrate that technical scheme of the present invention is not intended to limit, although the present invention is had been described in detail with reference to above-described embodiment, those of ordinary skill in the field are to be understood that: still can modify or be equal to replacement the specific embodiment of the present invention, and do not depart from any amendment of spirit and scope of the invention or be equal to replacement, it all should be encompassed in the middle of claim scope of the present invention.

Claims (9)

1. the wind-powered electricity generation of the considering stand-by requirement capability analysis method of dissolving, is characterized in that: said method comprising the steps of:

Step 1: set up the stand-by requirement probability Distribution Model after wind-electricity integration;

Step 2: determine Reserve Constraint condition;

Step 3: set up the production simulation model of considering stand-by requirement;

Step 4: the wind-powered electricity generation ability of dissolving is analyzed according to generating simulation model.

2. the wind-powered electricity generation of the consideration stand-by requirement according to claim 1 capability analysis method of dissolving, is characterized in that: described step 1 comprises the following steps:

Step 1-1: calculate before wind-electricity integration, Load Probability p is lost in electric power system _lLD;

Before wind-electricity integration, the spinning reserve demand of electric power system comes from the fluctuation of load, roughly Normal Distribution of Load Forecasting error, and near predicted value, the probability of random fluctuation belongs to normal distribution; Near the probability density function f (x) that load fluctuates predicted value μ is:

$f\left(x\right)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\mathrm{\π}}\mathrm{\σ}}\exp (-\frac{{(x-\mathrm{\μ})}^2}{2{\mathrm{\σ}}^2})---\left(1\right)$

Wherein, the variance that σ is normal distribution;

The probability of deficiency for subsequent use is that Load Probability p is lost in electric power system _lLDbe expressed as:

$p_{\mathrm{LLD}}={\∫}_{L_{\mathrm{MW}}+R_1}^{+\∞}\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\mathrm{\π}}{\mathrm{\σ}}_{\mathrm{LOAD}}}\exp (-\frac{{R_1}^2}{2{{\mathrm{\σ}}_{\mathrm{LOAD}}}^2})---\left(2\right)$

Wherein, L _mWfor Forecasting of Power System Load value, R ₁for reserved backed-up value, σ _lOADfor near the variance of loading and fluctuating predicted value;

Step 1-2: calculate the load stand-by requirement R after wind-electricity integration ₂;

The variance of supposing wind-powered electricity generation prediction after wind-electricity integration is σ _wIND, the total variances sigma causing due to Load Forecasting error and wind-powered electricity generation prediction error _tOTALbe expressed as:

${\mathrm{\σ}}_{\mathrm{TOTAL}}=\sqrt{{{\mathrm{\σ}}_{\mathrm{WIND}}}^2+{{\mathrm{\σ}}_{\mathrm{LOAD}}}^2}---\left(3\right)$

Suppose that wind-powered electricity generation grid connection capacity is W _mW, equivalent load meets normal distribution, for maintaining the mistake Load Probability p identical with the electric power system of wind-electricity integration money _lLD, obtain now corresponding equivalent load critical value EQUL according to gaussian distribution table _mWfor:

Wherein, for the inverse function of normal distyribution function;

Stand-by requirement R now loads ₂obtained by following formula:

R ₂＝EQUL _MW-R ₁ (5)

Step 1-3: determine stand-by requirement probability distribution rule;

Step 1-3-1: by the amount of unbalance producing when energy output or load do not conform to load with actual generated output when planning that is defined as for subsequent use, now for the extra power capacity that maintains Power Systems balance is defined as reserve capacity;

Consideration generation amount of unbalance is that the factor of stand-by requirement comprises that Load Forecasting error, wind-powered electricity generation prediction error and conventional unit trip suddenly;

1) the upwards amount of unbalance Imbalance that Load Forecasting error produces ⁺ _loadwith downward amount of unbalance Imbalance ^- _loadbe expressed as:

Imbalance ⁺ _load＝L _forest*Rand(σ) (6)

Imbalance ^- _load＝L _forest*Rand(-σ) (7)

Wherein, L _forestfor Load Forecasting value;

2) the upwards amount of unbalance Imbalance that wind-powered electricity generation prediction error produces ⁺ _windwith downward amount of unbalance Imbalance ^- _windbe expressed as:

Imbalance ⁺ _wind＝W _forest*Rand(σ) (8)

Imbalance ^- _wind＝W _forest*Rand(-σ) (9)

Wherein, W _forestfor wind-powered electricity generation predicted value;

3) the unexpected tripping operation of conventional unit only produces upwards stand-by requirement, total unit capacity C that loses _outfor:

$C_{\mathrm{out}}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{C}_i*x_i---\left(10\right)$

Wherein, total number of units that n is conventional unit, C _ifor the capacity of the conventional unit of i platform in electric power system, x _iit is the probability of the conventional unit tripping of i platform;

Step 1-3-2: by the amount of unbalance of the different periods of above three kinds of factors generation vector addition respectively, obtain the total amount of unbalance of electric power system of day part, have:

$R^{\mathrm{up}}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{C}_i*x_i+{{\mathrm{Imbalance}}^{+}}_{\mathrm{load}}+{{\mathrm{Imbalance}}^{+}}_{\mathrm{wind}}---\left(11\right)$

R ^dn＝Imbalance ^- _load+Imbalance ^- _wind (12)

Wherein, R ^upand R ^dnbe respectively stand-by requirement up and down, by sunykatuib analysis, can obtain the total amount of unbalance of electric power system is stand-by requirement probability distribution rule.

3. the wind-powered electricity generation of the consideration stand-by requirement according to claim 1 capability analysis method of dissolving, is characterized in that: in described step 2, Reserve Constraint condition comprises equality constraint, inequality constraints and Reserve Constraint;

1) equality constraint comprises electric equilibrium constraint and the interior heat balance constraint of electric power system in electric power system;

2) inequality constraints comprises conventional unit output constraint and conventional Unit Combination restrain condition;

Described conventional unit output constraint comprises fired power generating unit units limits and Hydropower Unit units limits;

Described conventional Unit Combination restrain condition comprises conventional unit generation power constraint, the constraint of conventional unit climbing rate and conventional Unit Commitment time-constrain;

3) Reserve Constraint comprises upwards Constraint for subsequent use and downward Constraint for subsequent use.

4. the wind-powered electricity generation of the consideration stand-by requirement according to claim 3 capability analysis method of dissolving, is characterized in that: in described electric power system, electric equilibrium constraint representation is:

$\underset{i\∈I_r}{\mathrm{\Σ}}{P}_{i,t}+\underset{r\∈R}{\mathrm{\Σ}}((1-L_{\mathrm{loss}})\·P_{\mathrm{trans}})=P_{r,t}^{\mathrm{load}}+\underset{i\∈I_{\mathrm{elecsto}}}{\mathrm{\Σ}}{P}_{i,t}^{\mathrm{stoload}},\∀t\∈T,r\∈R---\left(13\right)$

Wherein, in formula equal sign left side for all conventional units in the r of region send power and deduct loss after with the exchange power of exterior domain, right side is load in the r of region and the electric energy storage device power as load, and P _i,tbe the conventional unit of i platform at the generated output in t moment, L _lossfor line loss, P _transfor transmission-line power, for t moment load power in the r of region, for electric energy storage device is as the power of load, I _rfor all participation scheduling units, I _elecstofor all electric energy storage devices are as the quantity of load, R is electric equilibrium district, and T is whole calculation interval;

In described electric power system, heat balance constraint representation is:

$\underset{i\∈I_a}{\mathrm{\Σ}}{H}_{i,t}=H_{a,t}^{\mathrm{load}}+\underset{i\∈I_{\mathrm{heat}\_\mathrm{sto}}}{\mathrm{\Σ}}{H}_{i,t}^{\mathrm{sto}\_\mathrm{load}},\∀t\∈T,a\∈A---\left(14\right)$

Wherein, in formula, exert oneself for all heat energy in regional a in left side and, right side be heat load in regional a with hot energy storage device as the power of loading, H _i,tbe the conventional unit of i platform in the thermal power in t moment, for t moment heat load power in regional a, for hot energy storage device power of t moment in regional a, I _afor all heat supply unit numbers, I _{heat_sto}for hot energy storage device in regional a is as the quantity of heat load, T is whole calculation interval, and A is heat balance district.

5. the wind-powered electricity generation of the consideration stand-by requirement according to claim 3 capability analysis method of dissolving, is characterized in that: in described fired power generating unit units limits, the heat-supply type fired power generating unit in thermal power plant comprises back pressure type thermoelectricity unit and bleeder thermoelectricity unit;

(1) back pressure type thermoelectricity unit operating characteristic is as follows:

$P_{i,t}^{\mathrm{THbp}}=H_{i,t}^{\mathrm{THbp}}\·C_{\mathrm{bi}}^{\mathrm{THbp}}---\left(15\right)$

Wherein, with be respectively i platform back pressure type thermoelectricity unit in generated output and the thermal power in t moment, be the electricity-Re of the i platform back pressure type thermoelectricity unit ratio of exerting oneself;

(2) bleeder thermoelectricity unit operating characteristic is as follows:

$H_{i,t}^{\mathrm{THex}}\·C_{\mathrm{bi}}^{\mathrm{THex}}\≤P_{i,t}^{\mathrm{THex}}\≤P_{i,t}^{\mathrm{THex}}-H_{i,t}^{\mathrm{THex}}\·C_{\mathrm{vi}}^{\mathrm{THex}}---\left(16\right)$

Wherein, with corresponding minimum electrical power added value and the highest electrical power reduction value while being respectively the every increase of i platform bleeder thermoelectricity unit one unit thermal power, with be generated output and the thermal power of i platform bleeder thermoelectricity unit in the t moment;

In described Hydropower Unit units limits, the Hydropower Unit of hydroelectric plant comprises radial-flow type Hydropower Unit and reservoir formula Hydropower Unit;

(1) operating characteristic of radial-flow type Hydropower Unit is as follows:

$P_{i,t}^r\≤S^r\·{\mathrm{FLH}}^r\·\frac{P_{i,t}^{\mathrm{rh}}}{\underset{i,t}{\mathrm{\Σ}}(P_{i,t}^{\mathrm{rh}}\·1)}---\left(17\right)$

Wherein, be i platform radial-flow type Hydropower Unit at the generated output in t moment, S ^rfor the installed capacity of radial-flow type Hydropower Unit, FLH ^rcompletely send out and utilize hourage for water power, be i platform radial-flow type Hydropower Unit at the generated output mean value in t moment, be the energy output of i platform radial-flow type Hydropower Unit in the t moment;

(2) operating characteristic of reservoir formula Hydropower Unit is as follows:

$\begin{array}{c}{W}_s+W_{\mathrm{in}}-\underset{t}{\mathrm{\Σ}}{P}_t^{\mathrm{rese}}\≥W_{s+1}\\ W_{\min }\≤W_s\≤W_{\max }\end{array}---\left(18\right)$

Wherein, W _sfor the energy output that begins at the beginning of reservoir formula Hydropower Unit this week, W _incan energy output for what flow into reservoir formula Hydropower Unit this week, for reservoir formula Hydropower Unit actual power generation this week, W _s+1for the reservoir formula Hydropower Unit energy output that begins early next week, W _maxand W _minfor reservoir formula Hydropower Unit can energy output bound.

6. the wind-powered electricity generation of the consideration stand-by requirement according to claim 3 capability analysis method of dissolving, is characterized in that: described conventional unit generation power constraint is expressed as:

$P_{i,t}^{\min }\≤P_{i,t}\≤P_{i,t}^{\max }---\left(19\right)$

Wherein, with be respectively the generated output bound of the conventional unit of i platform in the t moment;

Conventional unit climbing rate constraint representation is:

$\mathrm{\Δ}{P}_{i,t}\≤\mathrm{\Δ}{P}_{i,t}^{\max }---\left(20\right)$

Wherein, Δ P _i,tbe the conventional unit of i platform at the generated output changing value in t moment, be that the conventional unit of i platform changes maximum at the generated output in t moment;

Conventional Unit Commitment time-constrain is expressed as:

T ^on≥T ^{min on}，T ^off≥T ^{min off} (21)

Wherein, T ^onand T ^offbe respectively conventional unit starting and dwell time, T ^{min on}and T ^{min off}be respectively conventional unit starting and dwell time lower limit.

7. the wind-powered electricity generation of the consideration stand-by requirement according to claim 3 capability analysis method of dissolving, is characterized in that: upwards Constraint for subsequent use and downward Constraint for subsequent use are expressed as:

$\mathrm{Cap}{P}_{a,i}\·V{\mathrm{Pon}}_{a,i}-V{P}_{a,i}\≥\underset{i}{\mathrm{\Σ}}V{R}_{a,i}^{\mathrm{up}}---\left(22\right)$

$V{P}_{a,i}-\mathrm{Cap\; P}{\min }_{a,i}\·V{\mathrm{Pon}}_{a,i}\≥\underset{i}{\mathrm{\Σ}}V{R}_{a,i}^{\mathrm{dn}}---\left(23\right)$

Wherein, CapP _a,ibe respectively the unit capacity of the conventional unit of i platform in a region, VPon _a,irepresent that in a region, whether the conventional unit of i platform is online, VP _a,ifor the conventional unit output of i platform in a region, for the available upwards regulated quantity of the conventional unit of i platform in a region, CapP min _a,ifor the minimum load of the conventional unit of i platform in a region, for the available downward regulated quantity of the conventional unit of i platform in a region.

8. the wind-powered electricity generation of the consideration stand-by requirement according to claim 1 capability analysis method of dissolving, is characterized in that: in described step 3, the target function of production simulation model is as follows:

QOBJ＝min{S _obj+Cost} (24)

Wherein, QOBJ is production simulated target value, S _objfor production cost, it is investment cost, taxation total cost, the change of elasticity electric loading expense, elastic hot changing load expense and the infeasible expense sum of punishing of fuel cost, operation and maintenance cost, reservoir formula charges for water and electricity use, transmission cost, generating or the investment cost of store electricity, the newly-built investment expenses of taxation, transmission line, and taxation total cost comprises discharge fee, fuel tax, generating tax and thermoelectricity tax; Cost is stand-by cost, and has:

$\mathrm{Cost}=\underset{i}{\mathrm{\Σ}}{\mathrm{Cost}}_i\·(R_t^{\mathrm{up}.i}-R_t^{\mathrm{dn}.i})\·{\mathrm{Prob}}^i---\left(25\right)$

Wherein, Prob ⁱprovide probability for subsequent use, Cost for the conventional unit of i platform _ifor corresponding to Prob ⁱstand-by cost is provided, with the i platform reserve capacity up and down providing in conventional unit t moment is provided.

9. the wind-powered electricity generation of the consideration stand-by requirement according to claim 1 capability analysis method of dissolving, it is characterized in that: in described step 4, according to the production simulation model of considering stand-by requirement after the wind-electricity integration obtaining, by changing the wind-powered electricity generation electric weight in production simulation model, the different stand-by requirements that produce under different wind-electricity integration capacity can be analyzed, thereby the impact on stand-by requirement after wind-electricity integration can be analyzed; Calculate the wind-powered electricity generation amount of abandoning under different wind-electricity integration capacity sights by production simulation, and then analyze the impact that wind-powered electricity generation is dissolved for subsequent use.