CN104091240B - Hydropower station hierarchical scheduling method and system with combination of medium and long term forecasts - Google Patents
Hydropower station hierarchical scheduling method and system with combination of medium and long term forecasts Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a hydropower station hierarchical scheduling method and system with the combination of medium and long term forecasts. The hydropower station hierarchical scheduling method comprises the following steps that (1) a reservoir entry runoff series of guaranteed normal water supply years is divided into a high-flow year set, a median-water year set and a low-flow year set according to annual runoff; (2) hierarchical scheduling graphs are made for the reservoir entry runoff series in terms of the storage period and the delivery period; (3) corresponding reservoir scheduling graphs are selected in combination with qualitative medium and long term hydrologic forecast results and used for guiding operation scheduling of a hydropower station, wherein the high-flow year scheduling graph is selected for the high-flow years, the median-water year scheduling graph is selected for the median-water years, and the low-flow year scheduling graph is selected for the low-flow years. According to the hydropower station hierarchical scheduling method and system with combination of the medium and long term forecasts, the reservoir scheduling graphs are combined with the medium and long term forecasts, guaranteed output areas and increased output areas are divided again on the basis of the conception of output indication during the flood season, the adaptability of the scheduling graphs to different magnitudes of water inflow is improved, and the electricity generation benefits of the hydropower station are improved remarkably.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to the hydropower station dispatching technique in hydraulic engineering field, more particularly, to one kind combines Medium-long Term Prediction
Power station graded dispatching method and system.
Background technology
At present, have the disadvantage that (1) high flow year easily increases according to the reservoir operation method of routine dispactching figure and abandon water
Amount, and then have lost the power benefit of reservoir.Tamper-proof line of the prior art and forced partial outage line are to ensure normal water supply
The two Phase flow series regulating calculation in time takes upper and lower envelope curve to obtain, and the increasing of different year in two Phase flow series is exerted oneself and limited
The rule making power is consistent, is therefore easily caused the increase that the high flow year abandons the water yield, is unfavorable for making full use of of water resource.
(2) do not consider Medium-long Term Prediction.Prior art establishment using be history two Phase flow series materials, pre- for a long time in not considering
The achievement of report, and all accept the achievement of all kinds of hydrometeorological forecasts in the actual traffic control of reservoir.
For above-mentioned deficiency, some scholars have carried out to it studying and improve the volume of the scheduling graph it is proposed that double guarantee is exerted oneself
Method processed.Double guarantees exert oneself scheduling graph by put in storage annual discharge series be divided into flood season and two groups of non-flood period, respectively according to flood season ensure
Exert oneself and the non-flood period regulating calculation that ensures to exert oneself takes the guarantee that upper and lower envelope curve obtains scheduling graph to exert oneself area.Double guarantees are exerted oneself scheduling graph
Although having distinguished the flood season utilization rate carrying out water condition, to a certain extent improve flood season water resource different with non-flood period,
It is to yet suffer from following deficiency: (1) has only differentiated between flood season and the seasonal variation of non-flood period water, fully do not consider to come
Difference in water yield level, power generation in the flood seasons amount still has a certain upgrade space.(2) design dependability cannot be guaranteed, reliability
Poor.According to double guarantees exert oneself scheduling graphic operation when, be easily caused some times due to flood season exert oneself excessive so that at the beginning of delivery period
Cannot store full and become the destruction time.(3) still fail to consider the combination of graph of reservoir operation and Medium-long Term Prediction.
Content of the invention
Goal of the invention: a kind of power station graded dispatching method of combination Medium-long Term Prediction is provided, is deposited with solving prior art
Subproblem, improve power benefit, realize the combination of graph of reservoir operation and Medium-long Term Prediction.
Further objective is that the power station graded dispatching system building a kind of combination Medium-long Term Prediction, to realize above-mentioned side
Method.
Technical scheme: a kind of power station graded dispatching method of combination Medium-long Term Prediction, comprise the steps:
S1, according to annual flow size by ensure the normal water supply time two Phase flow series be divided into rich, flat, withered three groups；
S2, two Phase flow series point water-retention phase and delivery period are made graded dispatching figure；
S3, the result with reference to qualitative mid-and-long term hydrologic forecast, select the graph of reservoir operation being adapted to be used for instructing power station
Traffic control, that is, the high flow year select high flow year group scheduling figure, normal flow year select normal flow year group scheduling figure, the low flow year select low water
Year group scheduling figure.
In a further embodiment, also include:
S0, rejected from long series two Phase flow data according to design dependability and destroy the time, choose and ensure normal water supply
The two Phase flow series in time.
Described step s2 further includes:
To ensure the two Phase flow series in normal water supply time in s21, delivery period, inverse from the end of term of supplying water according to ensureing to exert oneself
Sequential regulating calculation obtains to the upper and lower envelope curve at the beginning of delivery period, taking each year water-retention graph；
S22, calculating flood season indicated output；
S23, in the water-retention phase, tamper-proof line and forced partial outage line calculate respectively according to rich, flat, low flow year group, that is, Yi Feng, flat,
Low flow year group ensures the two Phase flow series in normal water supply time, adjusts meter according to flood season indicated output from water-retention end of term inverse time sequence
Calculate initial to water-retention, take the upper and lower envelope curve of each year water-retention graph to obtain.
Described step s22 includes:
S221, initial to water-retention by period regulating calculation from the water-retention end of term, try to achieve rich, period normal flow year group water-retention phase average
Exert oneself, be designated as respectively:
nai,t, i=1,2,3 ..., na；T=t0, t0+ 1, t0+ 2 ..., t0+t-1；
nbi,t, i=1,2,3 ..., nb；T=t0, t0+ 1, t0+ 2 ..., t0+t-1；
Wherein, naAnd nbRespectively rich, normal flow year group year number, t0For the initial time of water-retention phase, t is the water-retention phase
Segment length when total；
S222, rich, the normal flow year group water-retention phase minimum load na of calculatingiAnd nbi:
nai=min { nai,t/t∈[t0,t+t0- 1] } i=1,2 ..., na
nbi=min { nbi,t/t∈[t0,t+t0- 1] } i=1,2 ..., nb
S223, according to ensureing to store full principle, that is, water level at the beginning of delivery period reaches normal high water level (N.H.W.L.), calculates rich, normal flow year group
Flood season indicated output naAnd nb:
na=α × min { nai/i∈[1,na] 0 ＜ α≤1
nb=β × min { nbi/i∈[1,nb] 0 ＜ β≤1
Wherein, α, β are conversion factor.
A kind of power station graded dispatching system of combination Medium-long Term Prediction, including such as lower module:
First module, for according to annual flow size by ensure the normal water supply time two Phase flow series be divided into rich,
Flat, withered three groups；
Second module, for making graded dispatching figure by two Phase flow series point water-retention phase and delivery period；
Three module, for the result with reference to qualitative mid-and-long term hydrologic forecast, selects the graph of reservoir operation being adapted to be used for
Instruct the traffic control in power station, i.e. selection high flow year, group scheduling figure high flow year, normal flow year selects normal flow year group scheduling figure, low water
Year selects low flow year group scheduling figure.
Also include in a further embodiment:
4th module, destroy the time for rejecting from long series two Phase flow data according to design dependability, choose and protect
The two Phase flow series in card normal water supply time.
Described second module further includes:
To ensure the two Phase flow series in normal water supply time in 21st submodule, delivery period, exert oneself from confession according to guarantee
Inverse time in water end of term sequence regulating calculation obtains to the upper and lower envelope curve at the beginning of delivery period, taking each year water-retention graph；
22nd submodule, it is used for calculating flood season indicated output；
23rd submodule, in the water-retention phase, tamper-proof line and forced partial outage line calculate respectively according to rich, flat, low flow year group, that is,
Yi Feng, flat, low flow year group two Phase flow series, according to flood season indicated output from inverse time in water-retention end of term sequence regulating calculation to water-retention
In the beginning, the upper and lower envelope curve of each year water-retention graph is taken to obtain.
Described 22nd submodule further includes:
221st submodule, for initial to water-retention by period regulating calculation from the water-retention end of term, try to achieve rich, normal flow year group and store
Water phase period average output, is designated as respectively:
nai,t, i=1,2,3 ..., na；T=t0, t0+ 1, t0+ 2 ..., t0+t-1；
nbi,t, i=1,2,3 ..., nb；T=t0, t0+ 1, t0+ 2 ..., t0+t-1；
Wherein, naAnd nbRespectively rich, normal flow year group year number, t0For the initial time of water-retention phase, t is the water-retention phase
Segment length when total；
222nd submodule, for calculating rich, normal flow year group water-retention phase minimum load naiAnd nbi:
nai=min { nai,t/t∈[t0,t+t0- 1] } i=1,2 ..., na
nbi=min { nbi,t/t∈[t0,t+t0- 1] } i=1,2 ..., nb
223rd submodule, for according to ensureing to store full principle, that is, water level at the beginning of delivery period reaches normal high water level (N.H.W.L.), calculates
Rich, normal flow year group flood season indicated output naAnd nb:
na=α × min { nai/i∈[1,na] 0 ＜ α≤1
nb=β × min { nbi/i∈[1,nb] 0 ＜ β≤1
Wherein, α, β are conversion factor.
Beneficial effect: 1, the present invention proposes the concept of flood season indicated output thus it is ensured that the warehouse-in footpath in normal water supply time
Stream series is divided into rich, flat, withered three groups according to the size of annual flow, has again delimited that exerted oneself in area in guarantee and increasing is exerted oneself area, improves
The adaptability to different magnitude waters for the scheduling graph, and significantly improve the power benefit in power station.2nd, the present invention adjusts conventional
On the basis of degree figure, make reservoir graded dispatching figure, and considered the result of qualitative Medium-long Term Prediction, select the reservoir being adapted
Scheduling graph is used for instructing the traffic control in power station it is achieved that the combination of graph of reservoir operation and Medium-long Term Prediction.
Brief description
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the inventive method；
Fig. 2 is the schematic diagram of reservoir graded dispatching figure.
Specific embodiment
A kind of power station graded dispatching method of combination Medium-long Term Prediction, comprises the following steps:
Step 1, determines design dependability p (desirable 90%, 95% etc.), according to the design dependability p drafting from long series
Reject in two Phase flow data and destroy the time (time that water is less than design low flow year), choose and ensure entering of normal water supply time
Storehouse Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series, the foundation making as graded dispatching figure.
Step 2 thus it is ensured that the two Phase flow in normal water supply time series according to the size of annual flow be divided into rich (0% < p≤
30%), put down three groups of (30% < p≤70%), withered (70% < p≤90%).
Step 3, two Phase flow series point water-retention phase and delivery period is made graded dispatching figure, specifically includes following sub-step
Rapid:
(1) for delivery period, tamper-proof line is consistent with routine dispactching figure with the manufacture method of forced partial outage line, to protect
The two Phase flow series in card normal water supply time, according to ensureing to exert oneself from inverse time in the end of term sequence regulating calculation that supplies water at the beginning of delivery period,
The upper and lower envelope curve taking each year water-retention graph obtains.
(2) calculate flood season indicated output:
The making of graded dispatching figure is based on the two Phase flow series ensureing the normal water supply time, and flood season water is typically big
In delivery period, therefore under the precondition not reducing design dependability, rich, flat, low flow year group flood season indicated output should not
Exert oneself less than guarantee.In the present invention, the flood season indicated output of low flow year group card of going bail for is exerted oneself np, expired with the storage reaching at the beginning of delivery period
Require.Rich, normal flow year group should make full use of flood water using the flood season indicated output bigger than low flow year group to reach,
Reducing abandoned water, improves the target of the power benefit in power station, and rich, normal flow year group flood season indicated output can adopt below equation meter
Calculate:
1) initial to water-retention by period regulating calculation from the water-retention end of term, trying to achieve rich, period normal flow year group water-retention phase averages out
Power, is designated as na respectivelyi,t(i=1,2,3 ..., na；T=t0, t0+ 1, t0+ 2 ..., t0+t-1)、nbi,t(i=1,2,3 ..., nb；t
=t0, t0+ 1, t0+ 2 ..., t0+t-1).Wherein, naAnd nbRespectively rich, normal flow year group year number, t0For initiateing of water-retention phase
Moment, t be the water-retention phase total when segment length.
2) rich, normal flow year group water-retention phase minimum load naiAnd nbiCan be calculated using below equation:
nai=min { nai,t/t∈[t0,t+t0- 1] } i=1,2 ..., na(1)
nbi=min { nbi,t/t∈[t0,t+t0- 1] } i=1,2 ..., nb(2)
3) according to ensureing to store full principle, that is, water level at the beginning of delivery period reaches normal high water level (N.H.W.L.), and rich, normal flow year group flood season refers to
Power n is shownaAnd nbCan be calculated using below equation:
na=α × min { nai/i∈[1,na] 0 ＜ α≤1 (3)
nb=β × min { nbi/i∈[1,nb] 0 ＜ β≤1 (4)
Wherein, there is phase-unstable phenomenon due to not considering the loss of flood peak and flood season water in calculating process, because
This adds two conversion factors α, β in formula, may bigger than normal asking to solve rich, normal flow year group flood season indicated output
Topic.
(3) for the water-retention phase, tamper-proof line and forced partial outage line calculate respectively according to rich, flat, low flow year group, that is, with
Rich, flat, low flow year group ensures the two Phase flow series in normal water supply time, according to flood season indicated output from water-retention end of term inverse time sequence
Regulating calculation is initial to water-retention, takes the upper and lower envelope curve of each year water-retention graph to obtain.
Step 4, in conjunction with the result of qualitative Medium-long Term Prediction, selects the graph of reservoir operation being adapted to be used for instructing power station
Traffic control, i.e. selection high flow year, group scheduling figure high flow year, normal flow year selects normal flow year group scheduling figure, and the low flow year selects the low flow year
Group scheduling figure.
The present invention considers water magnitude difference on the basis of scheduling graph is exerted oneself in double guarantees thus it is ensured that the normal water supply time
Two Phase flow series be divided into rich, flat, withered three groups according to the size of annual flow, based on flood season indicated output concept make reservoir
Graded dispatching figure, and combine the result of qualitative Medium-long Term Prediction, select the graph of reservoir operation being adapted to be used for instructing power station
Traffic control.
For realizing said method, build a kind of power station graded dispatching system of combination Medium-long Term Prediction, including following mould
Block:
4th module, destroy the time for rejecting from long series two Phase flow data according to design dependability, choose and protect
The two Phase flow series in card normal water supply time.
First module, for according to annual flow size by ensure the normal water supply time two Phase flow series be divided into rich,
Flat, withered three groups；
Second module, for making graded dispatching figure by two Phase flow series point water-retention phase and delivery period；
Ensure the two Phase flow series in normal water supply time in 21st submodule, delivery period, exert oneself from water supply according to guarantee
Inverse time in end of term sequence regulating calculation obtains to the upper and lower envelope curve at the beginning of delivery period, taking each year water-retention graph；
22nd submodule, it is used for calculating flood season indicated output；
221st submodule, for initial to water-retention by period regulating calculation from the water-retention end of term, try to achieve rich, normal flow year group and store
Water phase period average output, is designated as respectively:
nai,t, i=1,2,3 ..., na；T=t0, t0+ 1, t0+ 2 ..., t0+t-1；
nbi,t, i=1,2,3 ..., nb；T=t0, t0+ 1, t0+ 2 ..., t0+t-1；
Wherein, naAnd nbRespectively rich, normal flow year group year number, t0For the initial time of water-retention phase, t is the water-retention phase
Segment length when total；
222nd submodule, for calculating rich, normal flow year group water-retention phase minimum load naiAnd nbi:
nai=min { nai,t/t∈[t0,t+t0- 1] } i=1,2 ..., na
nbi=min { nbi,t/t∈[t0,t+t0- 1] } i=1,2 ..., nb
223rd submodule, for according to ensureing to store full principle, that is, water level at the beginning of delivery period reaches normal high water level (N.H.W.L.), calculates
Rich, normal flow year group flood season indicated output naAnd nb:
na=α × min { nai/i∈[1,na] 0 ＜ α≤1
nb=β × min { nbi/i∈[1,nb] 0 ＜ β≤1
Wherein, α, β are conversion factor.
23rd submodule, in the water-retention phase, tamper-proof line and forced partial outage line calculate respectively according to rich, flat, low flow year group, that is,
Yi Feng, flat, low flow year group two Phase flow series, according to flood season indicated output from inverse time in water-retention end of term sequence regulating calculation to water-retention
In the beginning, the upper and lower envelope curve of each year water-retention graph is taken to obtain.
Three module, for the result with reference to qualitative mid-and-long term hydrologic forecast, selects the graph of reservoir operation being adapted to be used for
Instruct the traffic control in power station, i.e. selection high flow year, group scheduling figure high flow year, normal flow year selects normal flow year group scheduling figure, low water
Year selects low flow year group scheduling figure.
The preferred embodiment of the present invention described in detail above, but, the present invention is not limited in above-mentioned embodiment
Detail, in the range of the technology design of the present invention, multiple equivalents can be carried out to technical scheme, this
A little equivalents belong to protection scope of the present invention.
It is further to note that each particular technique feature described in above-mentioned specific embodiment, in not lance
In the case of shield, can be combined by any suitable means.In order to avoid unnecessary repetition, the present invention to various can
The compound mode of energy no longer separately illustrates.
Additionally, combination in any can also be carried out between the various different embodiment of the present invention, as long as it is without prejudice to this
The thought of invention, it equally should be considered as content disclosed in this invention.
Claims (4)
1. a kind of power station graded dispatching method of combination Medium-long Term Prediction is it is characterised in that comprise the steps:
S1, according to annual flow size by ensure the normal water supply time two Phase flow series be divided into rich, flat, withered three groups；
S2, two Phase flow series point water-retention phase and delivery period are made graded dispatching figure；
Step s2 further includes:
To ensure the two Phase flow series in normal water supply time in s21, delivery period, exert oneself from inverse time in the end of term sequence that supplies water according to guarantee
Regulating calculation obtains to the upper and lower envelope curve at the beginning of delivery period, taking each year water-retention graph；
S22, calculating flood season indicated output；
S23, in the water-retention phase, tamper-proof line and forced partial outage line calculate respectively according to rich, flat, low flow year group, i.e. Yi Feng, flat, low water
Year group ensure the normal water supply time two Phase flow series, according to flood season indicated output from inverse time in water-retention end of term sequence regulating calculation to
Water-retention is initial, takes the upper and lower envelope curve of each year water-retention graph to obtain；
Wherein, described step s22 includes:
S221, initial to water-retention by period regulating calculation from the water-retention end of term, trying to achieve rich, period normal flow year group water-retention phase averages out
Power, is designated as respectively:
nai,t, i=1,2,3 ..., na；T=t0, t0+ 1, t0+ 2 ..., t0+t-1；
nbi,t, i=1,2,3 ..., nb；T=t0, t0+ 1, t0+ 2 ..., t0+t-1；
Wherein, naAnd nbRespectively rich, normal flow year group year number, t0For the initial time of water-retention phase, t be the water-retention phase total when
Segment length；
S222, rich, the normal flow year group water-retention phase minimum load na of calculatingiAnd nbi:
nai=min { nai,t/t∈[t0,t+t0- 1] } i=1,2 ..., na
nbi=min { nbi,t/t∈[t0,t+t0- 1] } i=1,2 ..., nb
S223, according to ensureing to store full principle, that is, water level at the beginning of delivery period reaches normal high water level (N.H.W.L.), calculates the rich, flood of normal flow year group
Phase indicated output naAnd nb:
na=α × min { nai/i∈[1,na] 0 ＜ α≤1
nb=β × min { nbi/i∈[1,nb] 0 ＜ β≤1
Wherein, α, β are conversion factor；
S3, the result with reference to qualitative mid-and-long term hydrologic forecast, select the graph of reservoir operation being adapted to be used for instructing the fortune in power station
Row scheduling, the high flow year selects high flow year group scheduling figure, and normal flow year selects normal flow year group scheduling figure, and the low flow year selects low flow year group to adjust
Degree figure.
2. the power station graded dispatching method with reference to Medium-long Term Prediction as claimed in claim 1 is it is characterised in that also include:
S0, rejected from long series two Phase flow data according to design dependability and destroy the time, choose and ensure the normal water supply time
Two Phase flow series.
3. a kind of power station graded dispatching system of combination Medium-long Term Prediction is it is characterised in that include as lower module:
First module, rich, flat, withered for being divided into, according to the size of annual flow, the two Phase flow series ensureing the normal water supply time
Three groups；
Second module, for making graded dispatching figure by two Phase flow series point water-retention phase and delivery period；
Described second module further includes:
To ensure the two Phase flow series in normal water supply time in 21st submodule, delivery period, exert oneself from delivery period according to guarantee
Last inverse time sequence regulating calculation obtains to the upper and lower envelope curve at the beginning of delivery period, taking each year water-retention graph；
22nd submodule, it is used for calculating flood season indicated output；
23rd submodule, in the water-retention phase, tamper-proof line and forced partial outage line calculate respectively according to rich, flat, low flow year group, that is, with rich,
Flat, low flow year group ensures the two Phase flow series in normal water supply time, adjusts from water-retention end of term inverse time sequence according to flood season indicated output
Section calculated to the water-retention beginning, took the upper and lower envelope curve of each year water-retention graph to obtain；
Described 22nd submodule further includes:
221st submodule, for initial to water-retention by period regulating calculation from the water-retention end of term, try to achieve rich, the normal flow year group water-retention phase
Period average output, is designated as respectively:
nai,t, i=1,2,3 ..., na；T=t0, t0+ 1, t0+ 2 ..., t0+t-1；
nbi,t, i=1,2,3 ..., nb；T=t0, t0+ 1, t0+ 2 ..., t0+t-1；
Wherein, naAnd nbRespectively rich, normal flow year group year number, t0For the initial time of water-retention phase, t be the water-retention phase total when
Segment length；
222nd submodule, for calculating rich, normal flow year group water-retention phase minimum load naiAnd nbi:
nai=min { nai,t/t∈[t0,t+t0- 1] } i=1,2 ..., na
nbi=min { nbi,t/t∈[t0,t+t0- 1] } i=1,2 ..., nb
223rd submodule, for according to ensureing to store full principle, that is, water level at the beginning of delivery period reaches normal high water level (N.H.W.L.), calculates rich, flat
Water year group flood season indicated output naAnd nb:
na=α × min { nai/i∈[1,na] 0 ＜ α≤1
nb=β × min { nbi/i∈[1,nb] 0 ＜ β≤1
Wherein, α, β are conversion factor；
Three module, for the result with reference to qualitative mid-and-long term hydrologic forecast, selects the graph of reservoir operation being adapted to instruct water power
The traffic control stood, i.e. selection high flow year, group scheduling figure high flow year, normal flow year selects normal flow year group scheduling figure, and the low flow year selects withered
Water year group scheduling figure.
4. the power station graded dispatching system with reference to Medium-long Term Prediction as claimed in claim 3 is it is characterised in that also include:
4th module, destroy the time for rejecting from long series two Phase flow data according to design dependability, choose and just ensure
The often two Phase flow series in water supply time.
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| CN106485346A (en) * | 2016-09-18 | 2017-03-08 | 武汉大学 | A kind of series-parallel connection reservoir impoundment ahead Multiobjective Optimal Operation method |
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