CN104091240A - Hydropower station hierarchical scheduling method and system with combination of medium and long term forecasts - Google Patents
Hydropower station hierarchical scheduling method and system with combination of medium and long term forecasts Download PDFInfo
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- CN104091240A CN104091240A CN201410346377.2A CN201410346377A CN104091240A CN 104091240 A CN104091240 A CN 104091240A CN 201410346377 A CN201410346377 A CN 201410346377A CN 104091240 A CN104091240 A CN 104091240A
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
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Abstract
The invention discloses a hydropower station hierarchical scheduling method and system with the combination of medium and long term forecasts. The hydropower station hierarchical scheduling method comprises the following steps that (1) a reservoir entry runoff series of guaranteed normal water supply years is divided into a high-flow year set, a median-water year set and a low-flow year set according to annual runoff; (2) hierarchical scheduling graphs are made for the reservoir entry runoff series in terms of the storage period and the delivery period; (3) corresponding reservoir scheduling graphs are selected in combination with qualitative medium and long term hydrologic forecast results and used for guiding operation scheduling of a hydropower station, wherein the high-flow year scheduling graph is selected for the high-flow years, the median-water year scheduling graph is selected for the median-water years, and the low-flow year scheduling graph is selected for the low-flow years. According to the hydropower station hierarchical scheduling method and system with combination of the medium and long term forecasts, the reservoir scheduling graphs are combined with the medium and long term forecasts, guaranteed output areas and increased output areas are divided again on the basis of the conception of output indication during the flood season, the adaptability of the scheduling graphs to different magnitudes of water inflow is improved, and the electricity generation benefits of the hydropower station are improved remarkably.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to the hydropower station dispatching technique in hydraulic engineering field, relate in particular to a kind of power station graded dispatching method and system of combination Medium-long Term Prediction.
Background technology
At present, the reservoir operation method according to conventional scheduling graph has the following disadvantages: (1) high flow year easily increases and abandons the water yield, and then has lost the power benefit of reservoir.Tamper-proof line of the prior art and forced partial outage line are that the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series that guarantees the normal water supply time regulate to be calculated and to be got upper and lower envelope curve and obtain, in warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series, to exert oneself with the rule of forced partial outage be consistent for the increasing of different year, therefore easily cause the high flow year to abandon the increase of the water yield, be unfavorable for making full use of of water resource.(2) do not consider Medium-long Term Prediction.The establishment utilization of prior art be historical warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series data, do not consider the achievement of Medium-long Term Prediction, and in the traffic control of reservoir reality, all accept the achievement of all kinds of hydrometeorological forecasts.
For above-mentioned deficiency, some scholars is studied and improves it, has proposed the exert oneself preparation method of scheduling graph of two assurances.Two assurances scheduling graph of exerting oneself is divided into two groups of flood season and non-flood seasons by warehouse-in annual discharge series, regulates respectively to calculate to get assurance that upper and lower envelope curve the obtains scheduling graph district of exerting oneself according to guaranteeing flood season to exert oneself and guarantee non-flood season to exert oneself.Although two assurances are exerted oneself scheduling graph distinguished flood season different with non-flood season carry out water condition, improved to a certain extent the utilization factor of water resource in flood season, but still have the following disadvantages: (1) only distinguished flood season and non-flood season water seasonal variation, do not consider fully the difference in water magnitude, power generation in the flood seasons amount still has certain room for promotion.(2) design dependability cannot be guaranteed, and reliability is poor.While exerting oneself scheduling graph operation according to two assurances, easily cause some times because excessive the making of exerting oneself flood season cannot be held the full destruction time that becomes at the beginning of delivery period.(3) still fail to consider the combination of graph of reservoir operation and Medium-long Term Prediction.
Summary of the invention
Goal of the invention: a kind of power station graded dispatching method of combination Medium-long Term Prediction is provided, and the subproblem existing to solve prior art, improves power benefit, realizes the combination of graph of reservoir operation and Medium-long Term Prediction.
Further object is the power station graded dispatching system that builds a kind of combination Medium-long Term Prediction, to realize said method.
Technical scheme: a kind of power station graded dispatching method of combination Medium-long Term Prediction, comprises the steps:
S1, according to the large young pathbreaker of annual flow, guarantee that the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series in normal water supply time is divided into rich, flat, withered three groups;
S2, will put Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series in storage and divide retaining phase and delivery period to make graded dispatching figure;
S3, in conjunction with the result of qualitative mid-and-long term hydrologic forecast, the graph of reservoir operation of selecting to adapt is used in reference to the traffic control in water guide power station, the high flow year is selected high flow year group scheduling figure, normal flow year is selected normal flow year group scheduling figure, the low flow year is selected low flow year group scheduling figure.
In a further embodiment, also comprise:
S0, according to design dependability, from long series warehouse-in Streamflow Data, reject and destroy the time, choose the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series that guarantees the normal water supply time.
Described step S2 further comprises:
In S21, delivery period, to guarantee the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series in normal water supply time, at the beginning of being calculated to delivery period according to guaranteeing to exert oneself from the adjusting of water supply inverse time in end of term order, the upper and lower envelope curve of getting each year retaining graph obtains;
S22, calculating indicated output in flood season;
In S23, retaining phase, tamper-proof line and forced partial outage line calculate respectively according to rich, flat, low flow year group, be that Yi Feng, flat, low flow year group guarantee the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series in normal water supply time, according to flood season indicated output from inverse time in retaining end of term order, regulate and to be calculated to the retaining beginning, the upper and lower envelope curve of getting each year retaining graph obtains.
Described step S22 comprises:
S221, by the period, regulate and to be calculated to the retaining beginning from the retaining end of term, try to achieve rich, normal flow year group retaining phase period average output, be designated as respectively:
Na
i,t，i＝1,2,3，…，n
a；t＝t
0，t
0+1，t
0+2，…，t
0+T-1；
Nb
i,t，i＝1,2,3，…，n
b；t＝t
0，t
0+1，t
0+2，…，t
0+T-1；
Wherein, n
aand n
bbe respectively year umber rich, normal flow year group, t
0for the initial time of retaining phase, segment length when T is retaining phase total;
S222, calculate rich, normal flow year group retaining phase minimum load Na
iand Nb
i:
Na
i＝min{Na
i,t/t∈[t
0,T+t
0-1]} i＝1,2,…,n
a
Nb
i＝min{Nb
i,t/t∈[t
0,T+t
0-1]} i＝1,2,…,n
b
S223, according to guaranteeing, hold full principle, i.e. at the beginning of delivery period, water level reaches normal high water level (N.H.W.L.), calculates indicated output N in flood season rich, normal flow year group
aand N
b:
N
a＝α×min{Na
i/i∈[1,n
a]} 0＜α≤1
N
b＝β×min{Nb
i/i∈[1,n
b]} 0＜β≤1
Wherein, α, β are conversion factor.
A power station graded dispatching system for combination Medium-long Term Prediction, comprises as lower module:
The first module, for guaranteeing that according to the large young pathbreaker of annual flow the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series in normal water supply time is divided into rich, flat, withered three groups;
The second module, divides retaining phase and delivery period to make graded dispatching figure for putting Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series in storage;
The 3rd module, for the result in conjunction with qualitative mid-and-long term hydrologic forecast, the graph of reservoir operation that selection adapts is used in reference to the traffic control in water guide power station, and the high flow year is selected high flow year group scheduling figure, normal flow year is selected normal flow year group scheduling figure, and the low flow year is selected low flow year group scheduling figure.
Also comprise in a further embodiment:
Four module, for rejecting and destroy the time from long series warehouse-in Streamflow Data according to design dependability, choose the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series that guarantees the normal water supply time.
Described the second module further comprises:
In the 21st submodule, delivery period, to guarantee the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series in normal water supply time, at the beginning of being calculated to delivery period according to guaranteeing to exert oneself from the adjusting of water supply inverse time in end of term order, the upper and lower envelope curve of getting each year retaining graph obtains;
The 22nd submodule, for calculating indicated output in flood season;
The 23rd submodule, in the retaining phase, tamper-proof line and forced partial outage line calculate respectively according to rich, flat, low flow year group, it is the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series of Yi Feng, flat, low flow year group, according to flood season indicated output from inverse time in retaining end of term order, regulate and to be calculated to the retaining beginning, the upper and lower envelope curve of getting each year retaining graph obtains.
Described the 22nd submodule further comprises:
The 221st submodule, for regulating and to be calculated to the retaining beginning by the period from the retaining end of term, try to achieve rich, normal flow year group retaining phase period average output, be designated as respectively:
Na
i,t，i＝1,2,3，…，n
a；t＝t
0，t
0+1，t
0+2，…，t
0+T-1；
Nb
i,t，i＝1,2,3，…，n
b；t＝t
0，t
0+1，t
0+2，…，t
0+T-1；
Wherein, n
aand n
bbe respectively year umber rich, normal flow year group, t
0for the initial time of retaining phase, segment length when T is retaining phase total;
The 222nd submodule,, normal flow year group retaining phase minimum load Na rich for calculating
iand Nb
i:
Na
i＝min{Na
i,t/t∈[t
0,T+t
0-1]} i＝1,2,…,n
a
Nb
i＝min{Nb
i,t/t∈[t
0,T+t
0-1]} i＝1,2,…,n
b
The 223rd submodule, for holding full principle according to guaranteeing, i.e. at the beginning of delivery period, water level reaches normal high water level (N.H.W.L.), calculates indicated output N in flood season rich, normal flow year group
aand N
b:
N
a＝α×min{Na
i/i∈[1,n
a]} 0＜α≤1
N
b＝β×min{Nb
i/i∈[1,n
b]} 0＜β≤1
Wherein, α, β are conversion factor.
Beneficial effect: the concept that 1, the present invention proposes indicated output in flood season, the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series that guarantees the normal water supply time is divided into rich, flat, withered three groups according to the size of annual flow, again delimit guarantee to exert oneself district and the increasing district of exerting oneself, improve the adaptability of scheduling graph to different magnitude waters, and significantly improved the power benefit in power station.2, the present invention is on the basis of conventional scheduling graph, made reservoir graded dispatching figure, and consider the result of qualitative Medium-long Term Prediction, the traffic control that the graph of reservoir operation of selecting to adapt is used in reference to water guide power station, has realized the combination of graph of reservoir operation and Medium-long Term Prediction.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram of the inventive method;
Fig. 2 is the schematic diagram of reservoir graded dispatching figure.
Embodiment
A power station graded dispatching method for combination Medium-long Term Prediction, comprises the following steps:
Step 1, determine design dependability P (desirable 90%, 95% etc.), according to the design dependability P drafting, from long series warehouse-in Streamflow Data, reject and destroy the time (water is less than the time of design low flow year), choose the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series that guarantees the normal water supply time, the foundation of making as graded dispatching figure.
Step 2, is divided into rich (0%<P≤30%), flat (30%<P≤70%), withered (70%<P≤90%) three groups by the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series that guarantees the normal water supply time according to the size of annual flow.
Step 3, will put Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series in storage and divide retaining phase and delivery period to make graded dispatching figure, specifically comprise following sub-step:
(1) for delivery period, the method for making of tamper-proof line and forced partial outage line is consistent with conventional scheduling graph, to guarantee the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series in normal water supply time, at the beginning of being calculated to delivery period according to guaranteeing to exert oneself from the adjusting of water supply inverse time in end of term order, the upper and lower envelope curve of getting each year retaining graph obtains.
(2) calculate indicated output in flood season:
The making of graded dispatching figure is based on the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series that guarantees the normal water supply time, flood season, water was generally greater than delivery period, therefore do not reducing under the precondition of design dependability, indicated output in flood season rich, flat, low flow year group should be not less than and guarantee to exert oneself.In the present invention, the indicated output in flood season of low flow year group is gone bail for and is demonstrate,proved the N that exerts oneself
p, to reach the full requirement of holding at the beginning of delivery period.Rich, normal flow year group should adopt than the larger indicated output in flood season of low flow year group, to reach, makes full use of flood water, reduces and abandons water, improves the target of the power benefit in power station, and rich, normal flow year group indicated output in flood season can adopt following formula to calculate:
1) by the period, regulate and to be calculated to the retaining beginning from the retaining end of term, try to achieve rich, normal flow year group retaining phase period average output, be designated as respectively Na
i,t(i=1,2,3 ..., n
a; T=t
0, t
0+ 1, t
0+ 2 ..., t
0+ T-1), Nb
i,t(i=1,2,3 ..., n
b; T=t
0, t
0+ 1, t
0+ 2 ..., t
0+ T-1).Wherein, n
aand n
bbe respectively year umber rich, normal flow year group, t
0for the initial time of retaining phase, segment length when T is retaining phase total.
2) rich, normal flow year group retaining phase minimum load Na
iand Nb
ican adopt following formula to calculate:
Na
i＝min{Na
i,t/t∈[t
0,T+t
0-1]} i＝1,2,…,n
a (1)
Nb
i＝min{Nb
i,t/t∈[t
0,T+t
0-1]} i＝1,2,…,n
b (2)
3) according to guaranteeing, hold full principle, i.e. at the beginning of delivery period, water level reaches normal high water level (N.H.W.L.), the indicated output N in flood season of rich, normal flow year group
aand N
bcan adopt following formula to calculate:
N
a＝α×min{Na
i/i∈[1,n
a]} 0＜α≤1 (3)
N
b＝β×min{Nb
i/i∈[1,n
b]} 0＜β≤1 (4)
Wherein, due in computation process, do not consider the loss of flood peak and flood season water there is phase-unstable phenomenon, therefore in formula, added two conversion factor α, β, the problem that flood season, indicated output may be bigger than normal of, normal flow year group rich to solve.
(3) for the retaining phase, tamper-proof line and forced partial outage line calculate respectively according to rich, flat, low flow year group, be that Yi Feng, flat, low flow year group guarantee the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series in normal water supply time, according to flood season indicated output from inverse time in retaining end of term order, regulate and to be calculated to the retaining beginning, the upper and lower envelope curve of getting each year retaining graph obtains.
Step 4, in conjunction with the result of qualitative Medium-long Term Prediction, the graph of reservoir operation that selection adapts is used in reference to the traffic control in water guide power station, and the high flow year is selected high flow year group scheduling figure, and normal flow year is selected normal flow year group scheduling figure, and the low flow year is selected low flow year group scheduling figure.
The present invention has considered water magnitude difference on being exerted oneself in the basis of scheduling graph in two assurances, the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series that guarantees the normal water supply time is divided into rich, flat, withered three groups according to the size of annual flow, based on flood season, the concept of indicated output is made reservoir graded dispatching figure, and in conjunction with the result of qualitative Medium-long Term Prediction, the graph of reservoir operation of selecting to adapt is used in reference to the traffic control in water guide power station.
For realizing said method, build a kind of power station graded dispatching system of combination Medium-long Term Prediction, comprise as lower module:
Four module, for rejecting and destroy the time from long series warehouse-in Streamflow Data according to design dependability, choose the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series that guarantees the normal water supply time.
The first module, for guaranteeing that according to the large young pathbreaker of annual flow the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series in normal water supply time is divided into rich, flat, withered three groups;
The second module, divides retaining phase and delivery period to make graded dispatching figure for putting Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series in storage;
In the 21st submodule, delivery period, guarantee the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series in normal water supply time, at the beginning of being calculated to delivery period according to guaranteeing to exert oneself from the adjusting of water supply inverse time in end of term order, the upper and lower envelope curve of getting each year retaining graph obtains;
The 22nd submodule, for calculating indicated output in flood season;
The 221st submodule, for regulating and to be calculated to the retaining beginning by the period from the retaining end of term, try to achieve rich, normal flow year group retaining phase period average output, be designated as respectively:
Na
i,t，i＝1,2,3，…，n
a；t＝t
0，t
0+1，t
0+2，…，t
0+T-1；
Nb
i,t，i＝1,2,3，…，n
b；t＝t
0，t
0+1，t
0+2，…，t
0+T-1；
Wherein, n
aand n
bbe respectively year umber rich, normal flow year group, t
0for the initial time of retaining phase, segment length when T is retaining phase total;
The 222nd submodule,, normal flow year group retaining phase minimum load Na rich for calculating
iand Nb
i:
Na
i＝min{Na
i,t/t∈[t
0,T+t
0-1]} i＝1,2,…,n
a
Nb
i＝min{Nb
i,t/t∈[t
0,T+t
0-1]} i＝1,2,…,n
b
The 223rd submodule, for holding full principle according to guaranteeing, i.e. at the beginning of delivery period, water level reaches normal high water level (N.H.W.L.), calculates indicated output N in flood season rich, normal flow year group
aand N
b:
N
a＝α×min{Na
i/i∈[1,n
a]} 0＜α≤1
N
b＝β×min{Nb
i/i∈[1,n
b]} 0＜β≤1
Wherein, α, β are conversion factor.
The 23rd submodule, in the retaining phase, tamper-proof line and forced partial outage line calculate respectively according to rich, flat, low flow year group, it is the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series of Yi Feng, flat, low flow year group, according to flood season indicated output from inverse time in retaining end of term order, regulate and to be calculated to the retaining beginning, the upper and lower envelope curve of getting each year retaining graph obtains.
The 3rd module, for the result in conjunction with qualitative mid-and-long term hydrologic forecast, the graph of reservoir operation that selection adapts is used in reference to the traffic control in water guide power station, and the high flow year is selected high flow year group scheduling figure, normal flow year is selected normal flow year group scheduling figure, and the low flow year is selected low flow year group scheduling figure.
More than describe the preferred embodiment of the present invention in detail; but the present invention is not limited to the detail in above-mentioned embodiment, within the scope of technical conceive of the present invention; can carry out multiple equivalents to technical scheme of the present invention, these equivalents all belong to protection scope of the present invention.
It should be noted that in addition each the concrete technical characterictic described in above-mentioned embodiment, in reconcilable situation, can combine by any suitable mode.For fear of unnecessary repetition, the present invention is to the explanation no longer separately of various possible array modes.
In addition, between various embodiment of the present invention, also can carry out combination in any, as long as it is without prejudice to thought of the present invention, it should be considered as content disclosed in this invention equally.
Claims (8)
1. in conjunction with a power station graded dispatching method for Medium-long Term Prediction, it is characterized in that, comprise the steps:
S1, according to the large young pathbreaker of annual flow, guarantee that the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series in normal water supply time is divided into rich, flat, withered three groups;
S2, will put Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series in storage and divide retaining phase and delivery period to make graded dispatching figure;
S3, in conjunction with the result of qualitative mid-and-long term hydrologic forecast, the graph of reservoir operation of selecting to adapt is used in reference to the traffic control in water guide power station, the high flow year is selected high flow year group scheduling figure, normal flow year is selected normal flow year group scheduling figure, the low flow year is selected low flow year group scheduling figure.
2. the power station graded dispatching method of combination Medium-long Term Prediction as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, also comprises:
S0, according to design dependability, from long series warehouse-in Streamflow Data, reject and destroy the time, choose the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series that guarantees the normal water supply time.
3. the power station graded dispatching method of combination Medium-long Term Prediction as claimed in claim 1 or 2, is characterized in that, described step S2 further comprises:
In S21, delivery period, to guarantee the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series in normal water supply time, at the beginning of being calculated to delivery period according to guaranteeing to exert oneself from the adjusting of water supply inverse time in end of term order, the upper and lower envelope curve of getting each year retaining graph obtains;
S22, calculating indicated output in flood season;
In S23, retaining phase, tamper-proof line and forced partial outage line calculate respectively according to rich, flat, low flow year group, be that Yi Feng, flat, low flow year group guarantee the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series in normal water supply time, according to flood season indicated output from inverse time in retaining end of term order, regulate and to be calculated to the retaining beginning, the upper and lower envelope curve of getting each year retaining graph obtains.
4. the power station graded dispatching method of combination Medium-long Term Prediction as claimed in claim 3, is characterized in that, described step S22 comprises:
S221, by the period, regulate and to be calculated to the retaining beginning from the retaining end of term, try to achieve rich, normal flow year group retaining phase period average output, be designated as respectively:
Na
i,t，i＝1,2,3，…，n
a；t＝t
0，t
0+1，t
0+2，…，t
0+T-1；
Nb
i,t，i＝1,2,3，…，n
b；t＝t
0，t
0+1，t
0+2，…，t
0+T-1；
Wherein, n
aand n
bbe respectively year umber rich, normal flow year group, t
0for the initial time of retaining phase, segment length when T is retaining phase total;
S222, calculate rich, normal flow year group retaining phase minimum load Na
iand Nb
i:
Na
i＝min{Na
i,t/t∈[t
0,T+t
0-1]} i＝1,2,…,n
a
Nb
i＝min{Nb
i,t/t∈[t
0,T+t
0-1]} i＝1,2,…,n
b
S223, according to guaranteeing, hold full principle, i.e. at the beginning of delivery period, water level reaches normal high water level (N.H.W.L.), calculates indicated output N in flood season rich, normal flow year group
aand N
b:
N
a＝α×min{Na
i/i∈[1,n
a]} 0＜α≤1
N
b＝β×min{Nb
i/i∈[1,n
b]} 0＜β≤1
Wherein, α, β are conversion factor.
5. in conjunction with a power station graded dispatching system for Medium-long Term Prediction, it is characterized in that, comprise as lower module:
The first module, for guaranteeing that according to the large young pathbreaker of annual flow the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series in normal water supply time is divided into rich, flat, withered three groups;
The second module, divides retaining phase and delivery period to make graded dispatching figure for putting Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series in storage;
The 3rd module, for the result in conjunction with qualitative mid-and-long term hydrologic forecast, the graph of reservoir operation that selection adapts instructs the traffic control in power station, and the high flow year is selected high flow year group scheduling figure, normal flow year is selected normal flow year group scheduling figure, and the low flow year is selected low flow year group scheduling figure.
6. the power station graded dispatching system of combination Medium-long Term Prediction as claimed in claim 4, is characterized in that, also comprises:
Four module, for rejecting and destroy the time from long series warehouse-in Streamflow Data according to design dependability, choose the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series that guarantees the normal water supply time.
7. the power station graded dispatching system of the combination Medium-long Term Prediction as described in claim 4 or 5, is characterized in that, described the second module further comprises:
In the 21st submodule, delivery period, to guarantee the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series in normal water supply time, at the beginning of being calculated to delivery period according to guaranteeing to exert oneself from the adjusting of water supply inverse time in end of term order, the upper and lower envelope curve of getting each year retaining graph obtains;
The 22nd submodule, for calculating indicated output in flood season;
The 23rd submodule, in the retaining phase, tamper-proof line and forced partial outage line calculate respectively according to rich, flat, low flow year group, be that Yi Feng, flat, low flow year group guarantee the warehouse-in Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series in normal water supply time, according to flood season indicated output from inverse time in retaining end of term order, regulate and to be calculated to the retaining beginning, the upper and lower envelope curve of getting each year retaining graph obtains.
8. the power station graded dispatching system of combination Medium-long Term Prediction as claimed in claim 7, is characterized in that, described the 22nd submodule further comprises:
The 221st submodule, for regulating and to be calculated to the retaining beginning by the period from the retaining end of term, try to achieve rich, normal flow year group retaining phase period average output, be designated as respectively:
Na
i,t，i＝1,2,3，…，n
a；t＝t
0，t
0+1，t
0+2，…，t
0+T-1；
Nb
i,t，i＝1,2,3，…，n
b；t＝t
0，t
0+1，t
0+2，…，t
0+T-1；
Wherein, n
aand n
bbe respectively year umber rich, normal flow year group, t
0for the initial time of retaining phase, segment length when T is retaining phase total;
The 222nd submodule,, normal flow year group retaining phase minimum load Na rich for calculating
iand Nb
i:
Na
i＝min{Na
i,t/t∈[t
0,T+t
0-1]} i＝1,2,…,n
a
Nb
i＝min{Nb
i,t/t∈[t
0,T+t
0-1]} i＝1,2,…,n
b
The 223rd submodule, for holding full principle according to guaranteeing, i.e. at the beginning of delivery period, water level reaches normal high water level (N.H.W.L.), calculates indicated output N in flood season rich, normal flow year group
aand N
b:
N
a＝α×min{Na
i/i∈[1,n
a]} 0＜α≤1
N
b＝β×min{Nb
i/i∈[1,n
b]} 0＜β≤1
Wherein, α, β are conversion factor.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201410346377.2A CN104091240B (en) | 2014-07-18 | 2014-07-18 | Hydropower station hierarchical scheduling method and system with combination of medium and long term forecasts |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201410346377.2A CN104091240B (en) | 2014-07-18 | 2014-07-18 | Hydropower station hierarchical scheduling method and system with combination of medium and long term forecasts |
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| CN105243438A (en) * | 2015-09-23 | 2016-01-13 | 天津大学 | Multi-year regulating storage reservoir optimal scheduling method considering runoff uncertainty |
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| CN106971237A (en) * | 2017-02-27 | 2017-07-21 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | A kind of Medium-and Long-Term Runoff Forecasting method for optimized algorithm of being looked for food based on bacterium |
| CN106934496B (en) * | 2017-03-08 | 2018-05-11 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Couple power station two dimension scheduling graph drafting and the application method of Runoff Forecast information |
| CN108647425A (en) * | 2018-05-07 | 2018-10-12 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | K-means high flow or low flow time forecasting procedures based on particle group optimizing |
| CN111027825A (en) * | 2019-11-26 | 2020-04-17 | 华中科技大学 | Energy storage scheduling graph drawing method based on typical dry year and output coefficient optimization |
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| CN111862265A (en) * | 2020-06-19 | 2020-10-30 | 中国电建集团昆明勘测设计研究院有限公司 | Hydropower station water storage period scheduling graph compilation method based on water level control and application |
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