CN104091240A - Hydropower station hierarchical scheduling method and system with combination of medium and long term forecasts - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a method and system for hierarchical dispatching of hydropower stations combined with mid- and long-term forecasts. The method includes the following steps: S1. Divide the series of runoff entering the reservoir in a year that guarantees normal water supply into three groups: abundant, flat, and dry according to the size of the annual runoff ; S2. Divide the inflow runoff series into water storage period and water supply period to make a graded scheduling diagram; S3. Combined with the results of qualitative mid- and long-term hydrological forecasting, select a suitable reservoir scheduling diagram to guide the operation and scheduling of hydropower stations. For wet years, select the group scheduling map for normal water years, and for dry years, select the group scheduling map for dry years. The invention realizes the combination of the reservoir dispatching chart and the mid- and long-term forecast, redefines the guaranteed output area and the increased output area based on the concept of indicating output in the flood season, improves the adaptability of the dispatching chart to different magnitudes of incoming water, and significantly improves the Power generation efficiency of hydropower stations.

Description

A hierarchical scheduling method and system for hydropower stations combined with medium and long-term forecasting

technical field

The invention belongs to reservoir power generation scheduling technology in the field of water conservancy engineering, and in particular relates to a hierarchical scheduling method and system for hydropower stations combined with medium and long-term forecasting.

Background technique

At present, the reservoir dispatching method based on the conventional dispatching chart has the following deficiencies: (1) It is easy to increase the amount of discarded water in wet years, thereby losing the power generation benefit of the reservoir. The anti-damage line and limiting output line in the prior art are obtained by taking the upper and lower envelope lines from the adjustment calculation of the inflow runoff series in the year of normal water supply, and the rules of increasing output and limiting output in different years in the inflow runoff series are consistent , so it is easy to lead to an increase in the amount of water discarded in wet years, which is not conducive to the full utilization of water resources. (2) Mid- and long-term forecasts are not considered. The compilation of the prior art utilizes the series data of historical inflow runoff without considering the results of mid- and long-term forecasts, and the results of various hydrometeorological forecasts are accepted in the actual operation and scheduling of the reservoir.

Aiming at the above shortcomings, some scholars have studied and improved it, and proposed a method for compiling the dual-guarantee output dispatching diagram. The double-guaranteed output scheduling diagram divides the annual runoff series into the storage into two groups: flood season and non-flood season, respectively, according to the guaranteed output in the flood season and the guaranteed output in the non-flood season. Although the dual-guarantee output scheduling diagram distinguishes the different water conditions in the flood season and the non-flood season, which improves the utilization rate of water resources in the flood season to a certain extent, it still has the following deficiencies: (1) It only distinguishes the water flow in the flood season and the non-flood season Seasonal differences do not fully take into account the differences in inflow levels, and there is still room for improvement in power generation during flood seasons. (2) The design guarantee rate cannot be guaranteed, and the reliability is poor. When operating according to the dual-guarantee output scheduling chart, it is easy to cause some years to become damage years due to excessive output during the flood season, which makes the water supply unable to be fully stored at the beginning of the period. (3) The combination of reservoir dispatching map and medium and long-term forecast is still not considered.

Contents of the invention

Purpose of the invention: To provide a hierarchical scheduling method for hydropower stations combined with mid- and long-term forecasts to solve some problems in the prior art, improve power generation efficiency, and realize the combination of reservoir scheduling charts and mid- and long-term forecasts.

A further purpose is to construct a hierarchical dispatching system for hydropower stations combined with medium and long-term forecasting to realize the above methods.

Technical solution: a hierarchical scheduling method for hydropower stations combined with medium and long-term forecasting, including the following steps:

S1. According to the size of the annual runoff, the inflow runoff series in the year of normal water supply is divided into three groups: abundant, flat and dry;

S2, divide the inflow runoff series into the water storage period and the water supply period to make a hierarchical scheduling diagram;

S3. Combined with the results of qualitative mid- and long-term hydrological forecasts, select suitable reservoir dispatching charts to guide the operation and dispatching of hydropower stations, that is, select the dispatching charts for wet years in wet years, select the dispatching charts for flat years in normal years, and select the dispatching charts for flat years in dry years. Select the dry year group scheduling map.

In a further embodiment, also includes:

S0. According to the design guarantee rate, the year of damage is removed from the long series of inflow runoff data, and the inflow runoff series in the year with normal water supply is selected.

The step S2 further includes:

S21. During the water supply period, the inflow runoff series in the normal water supply year is calculated according to the inverse sequence adjustment of the guaranteed output from the end of the water supply period to the beginning of the water supply period, and the upper and lower envelopes of the water storage process line of each year are obtained;

S22. Calculating the indicated output during the flood season;

S23. During the water storage period, the anti-damage line and the limit output line are calculated separately according to the groups of wet, flat, and dry years, that is, the runoff series in the normal water supply year is guaranteed according to the groups of wet, flat, and dry years, and the output is calculated according to the instructions of the flood season. From the end of the impoundment period to the beginning of the impoundment period, the reverse time series adjustment calculation is obtained by taking the upper and lower envelopes of the impoundment process line in each year.

Described step S22 comprises:

S221. From the end of the water storage period to the beginning of the water storage period, the average output during the water storage period of the abundant and normal water year groups is obtained, which are respectively recorded as:

Na _i,t , i=1,2,3,...,n _a ; t=t ₀ , t ₀ +1, t ₀ +2,...,t ₀ +T-1;

Nb _i,t , i=1,2,3,..., n _b ; t=t ₀ , t ₀ +1, t ₀ +2,..., t ₀ +T-1;

Among them, n _a and n _b are the number of years of abundant and normal water years respectively, t ₀ is the beginning moment of the water storage period, and T is the total time period of the water storage period;

S222. Calculating the minimum output Na _i and Nb _i during the water storage period of the abundant and flat water year groups:

Na _i =min{Na _i,t /t∈[t ₀ ,T+t ₀ -1]} i=1,2,...,n _a

Nb _i =min{Nb _i,t /t∈[t ₀ ,T+t ₀ -1]} i=1,2,…,n _b

S223. According to the principle of ensuring full storage, that is, the water level at the beginning of the water supply period reaches the normal high water level, calculate the indicated output N _a and N _b in the flood season of the group of abundant and normal water years:

N _a =α×min{Na _i /i∈[1,n _a ]} 0<α≤1

N _b ＝β×min{Nb _i /i∈[1,n _b ]} 0<β≤1

Among them, α and β are conversion coefficients.

A hierarchical scheduling system for hydropower stations combined with medium and long-term forecasting, including the following modules:

The first module is used to divide the inflow runoff series in the year of normal water supply into three groups: abundant, flat and dry according to the size of the annual runoff;

The second module is used to divide the inflow runoff series into water storage period and water supply period to make hierarchical scheduling diagrams;

The third module is used to combine the results of qualitative mid- and long-term hydrological forecasts to select suitable reservoir dispatching charts to guide the operation and dispatching of hydropower stations, that is, select the dispatching charts for wet years in wet years, and select the dispatching charts for flat years in normal years , the dry year selects the group scheduling map for the dry year.

In further embodiments also include:

The fourth module is used to eliminate the damage year from the long series of inflow runoff data according to the design guarantee rate, and select the inflow runoff series in the year that guarantees normal water supply.

The second module further includes:

The 21st sub-module, the inflow runoff series in the year of normal water supply during the water supply period, is calculated according to the inverse sequence adjustment of the guaranteed output from the end of the water supply period to the beginning of the water supply period, and obtained by taking the upper and lower envelopes of the water storage process line in each year;

The 22nd sub-module is used to calculate the indicated output during the flood season;

In the 23rd sub-module, the anti-damage line and the limit output line during the water storage period are calculated separately according to the groups of wet, flat, and dry years, that is, the inflow runoff series of the groups of wet, flat, and dry years is used to calculate the output from the storage according to the instructions of the flood season. The reverse time series adjustment at the end of the water period is calculated to the beginning of the water storage period, and it is obtained by taking the upper and lower envelopes of the water storage process line in each year.

The 22nd submodule further includes:

The 221st sub-module is used to adjust and calculate period by period from the end of the water storage period to the beginning of the water storage period, and obtain the average output during the water storage period of the abundant and normal water year groups, which are respectively recorded as:

Na _i,t , i=1,2,3,...,n _a ; t=t ₀ , t ₀ +1, t ₀ +2,...,t ₀ +T-1;

Nb _i,t , i=1,2,3,..., n _b ; t=t ₀ , t ₀ +1, t ₀ +2,..., t ₀ +T-1;

Among them, n _a and n _b are the number of years of abundant and normal water years respectively, t ₀ is the beginning moment of the water storage period, and T is the total time period of the water storage period;

The 222nd sub-module is used to calculate the minimum output Na _i and Nb _i during the water storage period of the abundant and normal water year groups:

Na _i =min{Na _i,t /t∈[t ₀ ,T+t ₀ -1]} i=1,2,...,n _a

Nb _i =min{Nb _i,t /t∈[t ₀ ,T+t ₀ -1]} i=1,2,…,n _b

The 223rd sub-module is used to calculate the indicated output N _a and N _b in the flood season of the abundant and normal water year groups according to the principle of ensuring full storage, that is, the water level at the beginning of the water supply period reaches the normal high water level:

N _a =α×min{Na _i /i∈[1,n _a ]} 0<α≤1

N _b ＝β×min{Nb _i /i∈[1,n _b ]} 0<β≤1

Among them, α and β are conversion coefficients.

Beneficial effects: 1. The present invention proposes the concept of indicating output during the flood season, and divides the inflow runoff series in the year of normal water supply into three groups according to the size of the annual runoff: abundant, flat, and dry, and redefines the guaranteed output area and increases the output area, improving the adaptability of dispatching charts to different magnitudes of incoming water, and significantly improving the power generation efficiency of hydropower stations. 2. On the basis of conventional dispatching diagrams, the present invention has produced hierarchical reservoir dispatching diagrams, and considered the results of qualitative mid- and long-term forecasts, selected suitable reservoir dispatching diagrams for guiding the operation and scheduling of hydropower stations, and realized reservoir dispatching diagrams and intermediate Combination of long-range forecasts.

Description of drawings

Fig. 1 is the flowchart of the inventive method;

Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of reservoir hierarchical dispatching map.

Detailed ways

A hierarchical scheduling method for hydropower stations combined with medium and long-term forecasts, comprising the following steps:

Step 1. Determine the design guarantee rate P (preferably 90%, 95%, etc.), and remove the damage year (the year in which the incoming water is less than the design dry year) from the long series of inbound runoff data according to the proposed design guarantee rate P, and select the guarantee rate. The inflow runoff series in the normal water supply year is used as the basis for the production of hierarchical scheduling diagrams.

Step 2: Divide the inflow runoff series in years with normal water supply into abundant (0%<P≤30%), flat (30%<P≤70%) and dry (70%<P≤90%) according to the size of annual runoff. )Three groups.

Step 3, divide the inflow runoff series into water storage period and water supply period to make a hierarchical scheduling map, which specifically includes the following sub-steps:

(1) For the water supply period, the production method of the anti-damage line and the limit output line is consistent with the conventional dispatching chart, so as to ensure that the inflow runoff series in the normal water supply year is calculated according to the reverse sequence adjustment of the guaranteed output from the end of the water supply period to the beginning of the water supply period, It is obtained by taking the upper and lower envelopes of the water storage process line in each year.

(2) Calculation of indicated output in flood season:

The production of the graded scheduling chart is based on the inflow runoff series in the normal water supply years. The incoming water in the flood season is generally greater than the water supply period. It should not be less than the guaranteed output. In the present invention, the indicated output in the flood season of the dry year group is the guaranteed output N _P to meet the full storage requirement at the beginning of the water supply period. The indicated output in flood season for the wet and flat year groups should be larger than that of the dry year group to achieve the goal of making full use of the water in the flood season, reducing water abandonment, and improving the power generation efficiency of hydropower stations. The flood season indicated output for the wet and flat year groups can use the following formula calculate:

1) From the end of the water storage period to the beginning of the water storage period, the average output during the water storage period of the abundant and normal water year groups is obtained, which are recorded as Na _i,t (i=1,2,3,...,n _a ; t=t ₀ , t ₀ +1, t ₀ +2,..., t ₀ +T-1), Nb _i,t (i=1,2,3,..., n _b ; t=t ₀ , t ₀ +1, t ₀ +2, ..., t ₀ +T-1). Among them, n _a and n _b are the number of years of abundant and normal water years respectively, t ₀ is the beginning moment of the water storage period, and T is the total time period of the water storage period.

2) The minimum output Na _i and Nb _i during the water storage period of the abundant and normal water year groups can be calculated using the following formula:

Na _i =min{Na _i,t /t∈[t ₀ ,T+t ₀ -1]} i=1,2,...,n _a (1)

Nb _i =min{Nb _i,t /t∈[t ₀ ,T+t ₀ -1]} i=1,2,...,n _b (2)

3) According to the principle of ensuring full storage, that is, the water level at the beginning of the water supply period reaches the normal high water level, the indicated output N _a and N _b of the flood season group in the abundant and normal water years can be calculated by the following formula:

N _a =α×min{Na _i /i∈[1,n _a ]} 0<α≤1 (3)

N _b ＝β×min{Nb _i /i∈[1,n _b ]} 0<β≤1 (4)

Among them, since the loss of water head and the phase instability of incoming water in the flood season are not considered in the calculation process, two conversion coefficients α and β are added to the formula to solve the problem that the indicated output in the flood season may be too large question.

(3) For the water storage period, the anti-damage line and the limit output line are calculated according to the groups of wet, flat, and dry years, that is, the runoff series in the year of normal water supply is guaranteed by the groups of wet, flat, and dry years. In the flood season, the indicated output is adjusted from the end of the water storage period to the beginning of the water storage period, and is obtained by taking the upper and lower envelopes of the water storage process line in each year.

Step 4. Combined with the results of qualitative mid- and long-term forecasts, select suitable reservoir dispatching charts to guide the operation and dispatching of hydropower stations. Select the dry year group scheduling map.

The present invention considers the difference in incoming water magnitude on the basis of the dual-guaranteed output dispatching diagram, and divides the inflow runoff series in the year of normal water supply into three groups according to the size of the annual runoff, and makes reservoirs based on the concept of indicating output in flood seasons Based on the graded scheduling diagram, combined with the results of qualitative medium and long-term forecasting, the appropriate reservoir scheduling diagram is selected to guide the operation and scheduling of hydropower stations.

In order to realize the above method, a hierarchical dispatching system of hydropower stations combined with medium and long-term forecast is constructed, including the following modules:

The fourth module is used to eliminate the damage year from the long series of inflow runoff data according to the design guarantee rate, and select the inflow runoff series in the year that guarantees normal water supply.

The first module is used to divide the inflow runoff series in the year of normal water supply into three groups: abundant, flat and dry according to the size of the annual runoff;

The second module is used to divide the inflow runoff series into water storage period and water supply period to make hierarchical scheduling diagrams;

The 21st sub-module, the inflow runoff series in the year of guaranteed normal water supply during the water supply period, is calculated according to the inverse sequence adjustment of the guaranteed output from the end of the water supply period to the beginning of the water supply period, and obtained by taking the upper and lower envelopes of the water storage process line in each year;

The 22nd sub-module is used to calculate the indicated output during the flood season;

The 221st sub-module is used to adjust and calculate period by period from the end of the water storage period to the beginning of the water storage period, and obtain the average output during the water storage period of the abundant and normal water year groups, which are respectively recorded as:

Na _i,t , i=1,2,3,...,n _a ; t=t ₀ , t ₀ +1, t ₀ +2,...,t ₀ +T-1;

Nb _i,t , i=1,2,3,..., n _b ; t=t ₀ , t ₀ +1, t ₀ +2,..., t ₀ +T-1;

Among them, n _a and n _b are the number of years of abundant and normal water years respectively, t ₀ is the beginning moment of the water storage period, and T is the total time period of the water storage period;

The 222nd sub-module is used to calculate the minimum output Na _i and Nb _i during the water storage period of the abundant and normal water year groups:

Na _i =min{Na _i,t /t∈[t ₀ ,T+t ₀ -1]} i=1,2,...,n _a

Nb _i =min{Nb _i,t /t∈[t ₀ ,T+t ₀ -1]} i=1,2,…,n _b

The 223rd sub-module is used to calculate the indicated output N _a and N _b in the flood season of the abundant and normal water year groups according to the principle of ensuring full storage, that is, the water level at the beginning of the water supply period reaches the normal high water level:

N _a =α×min{Na _i /i∈[1,n _a ]} 0<α≤1

N _b ＝β×min{Nb _i /i∈[1,n _b ]} 0<β≤1

Among them, α and β are conversion coefficients.

In the 23rd sub-module, the anti-damage line and the limit output line during the water storage period are calculated separately according to the groups of wet, flat, and dry years, that is, the inflow runoff series of the groups of wet, flat, and dry years is used to calculate the output from the storage according to the instructions of the flood season. The reverse time series adjustment at the end of the water period is calculated to the beginning of the water storage period, and it is obtained by taking the upper and lower envelopes of the water storage process line in each year.

The third module is used to combine the results of qualitative mid- and long-term hydrological forecasts to select appropriate reservoir dispatching charts to guide the operation and dispatching of hydropower stations, that is, select the dispatching charts for wet years in wet years, and select the dispatching charts for flat years in normal years , the dry year selects the group scheduling map for the dry year.

The preferred embodiments of the present invention have been described in detail above, but the present invention is not limited to the specific details in the above embodiments. Within the scope of the technical concept of the present invention, various equivalent transformations can be carried out to the technical solutions of the present invention. These equivalent transformations All belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

In addition, it should be noted that the various specific technical features described in the above specific implementation manners may be combined in any suitable manner if there is no contradiction. In order to avoid unnecessary repetition, various possible combinations are not further described in the present invention.

In addition, various combinations of different embodiments of the present invention can also be combined arbitrarily, as long as they do not violate the idea of the present invention, they should also be regarded as the disclosed content of the present invention.

Claims (8)

1. a hydropower station hierarchical scheduling method in conjunction with medium and long-term forecasting, is characterized in that, comprises the steps: S1. According to the size of the annual runoff, the inflow runoff series in the year of normal water supply is divided into three groups: abundant, flat and dry; S2, divide the inflow runoff series into the water storage period and the water supply period to make a hierarchical scheduling diagram; S3. Combined with the results of qualitative mid- and long-term hydrological forecasts, select appropriate reservoir dispatching charts to guide the operation and dispatching of hydropower stations. Select the dispatching charts for wet years in wet years, select the dispatching charts for normal years in normal years, and select the dispatching charts for dry years. Dry year group scheduling map. 2. the hydropower station graded scheduling method in conjunction with medium and long-term forecast as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, also comprises: S0. According to the design guarantee rate, the year of damage is removed from the long series of inflow runoff data, and the inflow runoff series in the year with normal water supply is selected. 3. The hierarchical dispatching method for hydropower stations combined with mid- and long-term forecasts as claimed in claim 1 or 2, wherein said step S2 further comprises: S21. During the water supply period, the inflow runoff series in the normal water supply year is calculated according to the inverse sequence adjustment from the end of the water supply period to the beginning of the water supply period according to the guaranteed output, and obtained by taking the upper and lower envelopes of the water storage process line in each year; S22. Calculating the indicated output during the flood season; S23. During the water storage period, the anti-damage line and the limit output line are calculated separately according to the groups of wet, flat, and dry years, that is, the runoff series in the normal water supply year is guaranteed according to the groups of wet, flat, and dry years, and the output is calculated according to the instructions of the flood season. From the end of the impoundment period to the beginning of the impoundment period, the reverse time series adjustment calculation is obtained by taking the upper and lower envelopes of the impoundment process line in each year. 4. The hydropower station hierarchical scheduling method combined with medium and long-term forecast as claimed in claim 3, characterized in that, said step S22 comprises: S221. From the end of the water storage period to the beginning of the water storage period, the average output during the water storage period of the abundant and normal water year groups is obtained, which are respectively recorded as: Na _i,t , i=1,2,3,...,n _a ; t=t ₀ , t ₀ +1, t ₀ +2,...,t ₀ +T-1; Nb _i,t , i=1,2,3,..., n _b ; t=t ₀ , t ₀ +1, t ₀ +2,..., t ₀ +T-1; Among them, n _a and n _b are the number of years of abundant and normal water years respectively, t ₀ is the beginning moment of the water storage period, and T is the total time period of the water storage period; S222. Calculating the minimum output Na _i and Nb _i during the water storage period of the abundant and flat water year groups: Na _i =min{Na _i,t /t∈[t ₀ ,T+t ₀ -1]} i=1,2,...,n _a Nb _i =min{Nb _i,t /t∈[t ₀ ,T+t ₀ -1]} i=1,2,…,n _b S223. According to the principle of ensuring full storage, that is, the water level at the beginning of the water supply period reaches the normal high water level, calculate the indicated output N _a and N _b in the flood season of the group of abundant and normal water years: N _a =α×min{Na _i /i∈[1,n _a ]} 0<α≤1 N _b ＝β×min{Nb _i /i∈[1,n _b ]} 0<β≤1 Among them, α and β are conversion coefficients. 5. A hydropower station hierarchical scheduling system combined with medium and long-term forecasting, characterized in that it includes the following modules: The first module is used to divide the inflow runoff series in the year of normal water supply into three groups: abundant, flat and dry according to the size of the annual runoff; The second module is used to divide the inflow runoff series into water storage period and water supply period to make hierarchical scheduling diagrams; The third module is used to combine the results of qualitative mid- and long-term hydrological forecasts to select appropriate reservoir dispatching charts to guide the operation and dispatching of hydropower stations, that is, select the dispatching charts for wet years in wet years, select the dispatching charts for normal years in normal years, and select the dispatching charts for flat years in dry years. The water year selects the group scheduling map of the dry year. 6. the hydropower station graded scheduling system in conjunction with medium and long-term forecast as claimed in claim 4, is characterized in that, also comprises: The fourth module is used to eliminate the damage year from the long series of inflow runoff data according to the design guarantee rate, and select the inflow runoff series in the year that guarantees normal water supply. 7. as claimed in claim 4 or 5 described in conjunction with the hydropower station hierarchical scheduling system of long-term forecast, it is characterized in that, described second module further comprises: The 21st sub-module, the inflow runoff series in the year of normal water supply during the water supply period, is calculated according to the inverse sequence adjustment of the guaranteed output from the end of the water supply period to the beginning of the water supply period, and obtained by taking the upper and lower envelopes of the water storage process line in each year; The 22nd sub-module is used to calculate the indicated output during the flood season; In the 23rd sub-module, the anti-damage line and the limit output line during the water storage period are calculated separately according to the groups of wet, flat, and dry years, that is, the runoff series in the normal water supply year is guaranteed by the groups of wet, flat, and dry years, and according to the flood season The indicated output is adjusted from the end of the water storage period to the beginning of the water storage period, and is obtained by taking the upper and lower envelopes of the water storage process line in each year. 8. The hydropower station hierarchical scheduling system combined with medium and long-term forecast as claimed in claim 7, wherein the 22nd submodule further comprises: The 221st sub-module is used to adjust and calculate period by period from the end of the water storage period to the beginning of the water storage period, and obtain the average output during the water storage period of the abundant and normal water year groups, which are respectively recorded as: Na _i,t , i=1,2,3,...,n _a ; t=t ₀ , t ₀ +1, t ₀ +2,...,t ₀ +T-1; Nb _i,t , i=1,2,3,..., n _b ; t=t ₀ , t ₀ +1, t ₀ +2,..., t ₀ +T-1; Among them, n _a and n _b are the number of years of abundant and normal water years respectively, t ₀ is the beginning moment of the water storage period, and T is the total time period of the water storage period; The 222nd sub-module is used to calculate the minimum output Na _i and Nb _i during the water storage period of the abundant and normal water year groups: Na _i =min{Na _i,t /t∈[t ₀ ,T+t ₀ -1]} i=1,2,...,n _a Nb _i =min{Nb _i,t /t∈[t ₀ ,T+t ₀ -1]} i=1,2,…,n _b The 223rd sub-module is used to calculate the indicated output N _a and N _b in the flood season of the abundant and normal water year groups according to the principle of ensuring full storage, that is, the water level at the beginning of the water supply period reaches the normal high water level: N _a =α×min{Na _i /i∈[1,n _a ]} 0<α≤1 N _b ＝β×min{Nb _i /i∈[1,n _b ]} 0<β≤1 Among them, α and β are conversion coefficients.