CN104091212A - Method for estimating system equipment cost on basis of whole life cycle - Google Patents
Method for estimating system equipment cost on basis of whole life cycle Download PDFInfo
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- CN104091212A CN104091212A CN201410334581.2A CN201410334581A CN104091212A CN 104091212 A CN104091212 A CN 104091212A CN 201410334581 A CN201410334581 A CN 201410334581A CN 104091212 A CN104091212 A CN 104091212A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for estimating system equipment cost on basis of a whole life cycle, and belongs to the field of economic indicator calculation of comprehensive energy supply systems. The method is characterized in that the whole life cycle of equipment is estimated with purchasing time of the equipment as a time starting point and overhaul time of the equipment as a time ending point, the sum of all expenses for maintaining normal operation of the equipment in the time period is counted, and the value of the sum is the whole life cycle cost of the equipment. According to the method, the following indexes in the whole life cycle cost of the equipment of equipment purchasing and installation cost, equipment maintenance cost, equipment fuel cost and equipment overhaul cost are taken into consideration. Cost of the system equipment is analyzed on the basis of the whole life cycle, and the problem that when system planning is carried out, certain mistakes appear in model selection of the equipment, and consequently obtained benefits cannot recover maintenance cost in the operation process of the equipment can be solved. According to the method, the whole life cycle cost of the system equipment is calculated, and the method has important guidance significance in early planning and scheme selection of the system.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to comprehensive energy supplying system economic target and calculate field, relate in particular to a kind of method of coming optimization system programme and lectotype selection based on analysis of Life Cycle Cost.
Background technology
For maintaining sustainable development, China's economy is in the fast transformation phase to saving type development by extensive style development.In energy industry, because the energy utilization rate of traditional energy supplying system is lower, its economy can not satisfy social needs.Comprehensive energy supplying system has been integrated electricity, heat, cold three large main energy supply demands, and the primary energy ratio of system is brought up to more than 70%.But the equipment scope related due to comprehensive functional system is wide, each unit type of a great variety.So ensureing on the basis of system reliability, the maximization of economic benefit of selecting the equipment of suitable model to realize system becomes the problem that investment decision person is concerned about the most.
The cost estimation value of system equipment is the important references index of the planning of system initial stage and Scheme Choice.From traditional sense, the cost of equipment is only considered the erected cost of buying expenses and the equipment of equipment, and the expenses such as maintenance, fuel and overhaul after operation are not considered.The indicator of costs that this method obtains usually can cause misleading to the type selecting of system equipment.For example, choose equipment that price is lower to reduce equipment cost, but in fact, this model is after operation, the income of acquisition cannot be regained the investment of its operation stage, finally causes the failure of whole system scheme selection, and investor is caused to larger loss.A kind of method based on equipment life cycle management estimating system equipment cost that the present invention proposes, all includes all expenses that drop in equipment life cycle management in consideration category.By the analysis to these expenses, choose suitable unit type, the equipment overall life cycle cost of making reaches reduced levels.The scheme of formulating according to this index can make the economic situation of system in good state.Therefore, the overall life cycle cost of equipment all has guiding significance for initial stage planning and the choosing of scheme of whole system.
Summary of the invention
According to the deficiency of existing scheme, the present invention proposes a kind of method based on life cycle management estimating system equipment cost.The overall life cycle cost model that model equipment is annual, the then cost calculation model of apparatus for establishing in the life cycle management of system.The year overall life cycle cost modeling of equipment is roughly divided into four aspects: the purchasing price C that obtains equipment according to statistics
buy, price C is installed
install; According to the historical data of load side, obtain the annual peak load hours of operation T of equipment
m, in conjunction with fuel price C
fuel, calculate the year fuel cost C of equipment
fi; Adopt the year daily servicing of suitable method minimization device to take C
mi; By judging that statement obtains the year overhaul cost C of equipment
ri.Due to the time value of fund, annual cost is directly added nonsensical, general expenses must be converted between the cost that certain etalon time just makes distinct device and have comparability, makes like this evaluation of economical plan and selects more realistic.
Technical scheme of the present invention is that a kind of method based on life cycle management estimating system equipment cost, comprises the following steps:
Step 1: the purchasing price C of statistics equipment
buy, price C is installed
install.
Step 2: according to the operation time limit n of system, and the specified operation life n of equipment
0j, the equipment of obtaining needs the time of overhaul.
Step 3: the year overall life cycle cost model that builds equipment.Can be divided into three branches builds simultaneously.Each branch model is done and is obtained the year cost model of equipment.
Branch 1: according to the historical data of load side, obtain the annual peak load hours of operation T of equipment
m.Suppose that equipment operates near ratings substantially, and according to the heat consumption rate η calculated fuel consumption G of equipment
f, in conjunction with fuel price C
fuelcalculate a year fuel cost C
fi.
Branch 2: by employing skilled skilled worker, by maintenance cost C daily equipment
mibe compressed to minimum; Salary earner's wage directly counts maintenance expense.
Branch 3: for the equipment of different model, the operation life n of himself
0jdifference, the result judging according to step 2, in time of overhaul by overhaul cost C
ricount the cost of this year.
Step 4: according to the operation time limit n of system, the year value at cost C of equipment in the computing system life-span
i.This method is considered inflation factor, need to be multiplied by corresponding relevant inflation coefficient.Due to the time value of fund, need to by equipment each fraction of the year overall life cycle cost value be scaled present worth, then it is summed up.By the purchasing price C of equipment
buywith installation price C
installcontribute in the total cost of equipment life cycle management simultaneously.
Step 5: by the year overall life cycle cost C of different model equipment
icarry out Output of for ms, compare for different model life cycle management equipment cost, choose value at cost C
sminimum model.
According to technique scheme, a kind of described method based on life cycle management estimating system equipment cost, is characterized in that, in described step 2, reaches the specified operation life n of equipment itself when the accumulated running time of equipment
0jtime, equipment needs overhaul; Meanwhile, after equipment rebuilding, be equivalent to equipment and be updated, again add up (not considering the process time of overhaul) working time from 0.Therefore, need to judge whether a certain year equipment has met the condition of overhaul.If satisfied, need to be by the expense C of equipment rebuilding
ricount the year overall life cycle cost C of equipment
iin.
Suppose equipment rated life time n
0jbe greater than system year running time T
m, judge that the false code of statement is as follows:
Defining variable a, the time between overhaul of equipment in expression system operation life;
Defining variable i, for the operation year number of characterization system;
From system operation First Year (i=1)
According to technique scheme, a kind of described method based on life cycle management estimating system equipment cost, is characterized in that, in described step 3, the year overall life cycle cost model formation of equipment is as follows:
C
i＝C
fi+C
mi+C
ri (1)
Wherein, year fuel cost C
fi, year maintenance cost C
mi, year overhaul cost C
ribe divided into three branches and form this model.
Branch 1: year fuel cost MODEL C
fi
According to the historical data of load side, obtain peak load hours of operation T
m.At all the other time points, the utilization factor of system is not high, therefore according to the system processing that do not put into operation.For guaranteeing the operational efficiency of equipment, when type selecting, choose according to following principle: equipment operates near rated point.Therefore in the time of calculated fuel consumption, just according to the specified fuel flow rate G of equipment
f0calculate.
It is as follows that the specified fuel flow rate of equipment calculates model:
Wherein, ρ represents fuel density; H
urepresent the low heating value of fuel; Q
fthe specified consumption combustion rate of indication equipment.
Based on fuel price C
fuel, finally obtain equipment year fuel cost model:
C
fi＝G
f·C
fuel·T
M (3)
Branch 2: year maintenance cost MODEL C
mi
By employing skilled craftsman, the normal operation of service equipment.Be maintained expense C by statistics
mi.
Branch 3: year overhaul cost C
ri
By the judgement statement of described step 2, obtain needing the time of overhaul, equipment overhaul cost is added and needs the year of overhaul cost C
riin.
According to technique scheme, a kind of described method based on life cycle management estimating system equipment cost, is characterized in that, in described step 4, obtains the year overall life cycle cost C of equipment
iafter, consider inflation factor and be scaled present worth, obtain the equipment year overall life cycle cost after converting:
C
i′＝(C
fi+C
mi+C
ri)·(1+g)
i/(1+d)
i (4)
Wherein, g represents inflation; D represents discount rate.
In system operation time limit n, annual equipment year overall life cycle cost is added and, consider buying expenses and the erected cost of equipment finally to obtain equipment overall life cycle cost C simultaneously
s, formula is as follows:
Effect of the present invention is, by the limit of consideration of equipment cost being extended to the time limit of system operation, has calculated more accurately the equipment cost of system.By adding new cost factor: equipment year fuel cost C
fi, equipment year maintenance cost C
mi, equipment year overhaul cost C
ri, make people in the time of the equipment of selection, no longer stick to the purchasing price of equipment and price is installed, but the cost in system life cycle management is all taken into account by equipment, makes lectotype selection more accurate.Initial stage planning for system has guiding significance with lectotype selection.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is present device overhaul determining program process flow diagram;
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, example is elaborated.Should be emphasized that, following explanation is only exemplary, instead of in order to limit the scope of the invention and to apply.
In this example, for 0.2MW electric load, choose the propulsion system of the gas internal-combustion engine of two electric ratings about 0.1MW as system; This example is analyzed two kinds of gas internal-combustion engine models: Caterpillar G3516BLE (DM5490, DM5492, DM5489, DM5491), comings 1160GQKA.Analyze the overall life cycle cost of these two kinds of model gas internal-combustion engines, and contrast.
Both nominal parameters are as shown in the table:
Table 1 device parameter list
According to investigation, supplement following data:
Existing natural gas price: 2.92 yuan/kg, inflation: 2%, discount rate: 0.17, the low heating value of rock gas: 38231kJ/m
3, natural gas density: 0.7kg/m
3.
The year running time T of initialization system
m=8760h, the operation time limit n of system gets 50 years.
According to the step in described method, the overall life cycle cost model process of apparatus for establishing is as follows:
According to described step 2, according to the specified operation life of equipment and working time in system year, and show that according to the algorithm that judges overhaul two kinds of types need the time of overhaul:
Comings 1160GQKA:[612182430364248]
Caterpillar G3516BLE (DM5490, DM5492, DM5489, DM5491): [8 16 2,432 40 48]
Therefore, the expense of overhaul is counted equipment year overall life cycle cost by the time shown in above.
According to the branch 1 in described step 3, and calculate the specified fuel flow rate G of two kinds of types according to formula (2)
f0
Comings 1160GQKA:189.74kg/h
Caterpillar G3516BLE (DM5490, DM5492, DM5489, DM5491): 180.96kg/h
Calculate a year fuel cost C by formula (3) again
fi:
Ten thousand yuan of comings 1160GQKA:485.34
Caterpillar G3516BLE (DM5490, DM5492, DM5489, DM5491): 462.88 ten thousand yuan
According to operating actual conditions, obtain actual year maintenance cost C of two kinds of types
mi:
Ten thousand yuan of comings 1160GQKA:280
Caterpillar G3516BLE (DM5490, DM5492, DM5489, DM5491): 1,200,000 yuan
According to formula (4), and supplementary inflation, discount rate, obtain the year overall life cycle cost C of equipment
i'; The time response of consideration fund, obtains in the whole system operation time limit overall life cycle cost of two kinds of equipment:
Ten thousand yuan of comings 1160GQKA:6643.618
Caterpillar G3516BLE (DM5490, DM5492, DM5489, DM5491): 5347.912 ten thousand yuan
Known according to the type selecting standard of setting forth in described step 5, choosing Caterpillar G3516BLE (DM5490, DM5492, DM5489, DM5491) is preferred plan.Because, the overall life cycle cost minimum of the gas internal-combustion engine of this model.If according to classic method, be only used for type selecting with reference to the purchase of equipment and mounting cost, can cause misleading to decision-making.From the nominal parameter of table 1, the purchase of comings 1160GQKA and erected cost are far smaller than Caterpillar G3516BLE (DM5490, DM5492, DM5489, DM5491); But the latter's specified operation life is longer, and maintenance cost is less.Therefore, its overall life cycle cost is less than the former.
The above, fully verified that the present invention, in the time of the lectotype selection of comprehensive study energy supplying system and program decisions, considers the overall life cycle cost of equipment, can effectively avoid the misleading of traditional cost index for decision maker.Compare with traditional selection method the blindness that has significantly reduced selected equipment, promoted solution formulation efficiency.
This test macro is only preferably embodiment of the present invention; but protection scope of the present invention is not limited to this; any be familiar with those skilled in the art the present invention disclose technical scope in, the variation that can expect easily or replacement, within all should being encompassed in protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, protection scope of the present invention should be as the criterion with the protection domain of claim.
Claims (5)
1. the method based on life cycle management estimating system equipment cost, described method comprises the following steps:
Step 1: the purchasing price C of statistics equipment
buy, price C is installed
install;
Step 2: according to the operation time limit n of system, and the specified operation life n of equipment
0j, the equipment of obtaining needs the time of overhaul;
Step 3: the year overall life cycle cost MODEL C that builds equipment
i;
Step 4: according to the operation time limit n of system, the year value at cost C of equipment in the computing system life-span
i.This method is considered inflation factor, need to be multiplied by corresponding relevant inflation coefficient.Due to the time value of fund, need to by equipment each fraction of the year overall life cycle cost value be scaled present worth, then it is summed up.By the purchasing price C of equipment
buywith installation price C
installcontribute in the total cost of equipment life cycle management simultaneously;
Step 5: by the year overall life cycle cost C of different model equipment
icarry out Output of for ms, compare for different model life cycle management equipment cost, choose value at cost C
sminimum model.
2. a kind of method based on life cycle management estimating system equipment cost according to claim 1, whether the judgment device in described step 2 needs the logic of overhaul as follows:
Reach the specified operation life n of equipment itself when the accumulated running time of equipment
0jtime, equipment needs overhaul, meanwhile, after equipment rebuilding, is equivalent to equipment and is updated, and again add up working time from 0, therefore, need to judge whether a certain year equipment has met the condition of overhaul, if satisfied, need to be by the expense C of equipment rebuilding
ricount the year overall life cycle cost C of equipment
iin;
Need supposition equipment rated life time n
0jbe greater than system year running time T
m, judge that the false code of statement is as follows:
Defining variable a, the time between overhaul of equipment in expression system operation life;
Defining variable i, for the operation year number of characterization system;
From system operation First Year (i=1)
。
3. a kind of method based on life cycle management estimating system equipment cost according to claim 1, described step 3 on the basis of described step 2, apparatus for establishing year overall life cycle cost model:
C
i＝C
fi+C
mi+C
ri
Wherein, year fuel cost C
fi, year maintenance cost C
mi, year overhaul cost C
ribe divided into three branches and form this model, its particular content is as follows:
Branch 1: year fuel cost MODEL C
fi
According to the historical data of load side, obtain peak load hours of operation T
m, at all the other time points, the utilization factor of system is not high, and therefore, according to the system processing that do not put into operation, for guaranteeing the operational efficiency of equipment, near the principle operating in rated point according to equipment when type selecting is chosen, at calculated fuel consumption G
ftime, just according to the specified fuel flow rate G of equipment
f0calculate, computation model is:
Wherein, ρ represents fuel density, H
urepresent the low heating value of fuel, Q
fthe specified consumption combustion rate of indication equipment, based on fuel price C
fuel, finally obtain equipment year fuel cost model:
C
fi＝G
f·C
fuel·T
M
Branch 2: year maintenance cost MODEL C
mi
By employing skilled craftsman, maintenance cost daily equipment is compressed to minimum, and the normal operation of service equipment, salary earner's wage directly counts maintenance expense, is maintained expense C by statistics
mi;
Branch 3: year overhaul cost C
ri
By the judgement statement of step 2, obtain needing the time of overhaul, equipment overhaul cost is added and needs the year of overhaul cost C
riin.
4. a kind of method based on life cycle management estimating system equipment cost according to claim 1, in described step 4, obtains the year overall life cycle cost C of equipment
iafter, consider inflation factor and be scaled present worth, obtain the equipment year overall life cycle cost after converting:
C
i′＝(C
fi+C
mi+C
ri)·(1+g)
i/(1+d)
i
Wherein, g represents inflation; D represents discount rate.
In system operation time limit n, annual equipment year overall life cycle cost is added and, consider buying expenses and the erected cost of equipment finally to obtain equipment overall life cycle cost C simultaneously
s, formula is as follows:
5. a kind of method based on life cycle management estimating system equipment cost according to claim 1, described step 5 is based on step 3, the year overall life cycle cost of the equipment obtaining, the overall life cycle cost cash flow of forming device, and pass through Output of for ms; Based on step 4, obtain equipment overall life cycle cost simultaneously, the value at cost between distinct device is contrasted, select overall life cycle cost C
sminimum equipment.
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN104680254A (en) * | 2015-02-14 | 2015-06-03 | 浙江大学 | Method for optimizing power grid planning scheme based on comprehensive cost model |
| CN107203837A (en) * | 2017-05-03 | 2017-09-26 | 国网浙江省电力公司 | Region entirety economic life of equipment measuring method based on rate of load condensate and simultaneity factor |
Citations (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102999703A (en) * | 2012-11-29 | 2013-03-27 | 浙江省电力公司 | Calculation method of entire-life-cycle based transformer cost risk |
-
2014
- 2014-07-14 CN CN201410334581.2A patent/CN104091212A/en active Pending
Patent Citations (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102999703A (en) * | 2012-11-29 | 2013-03-27 | 浙江省电力公司 | Calculation method of entire-life-cycle based transformer cost risk |
Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN104680254A (en) * | 2015-02-14 | 2015-06-03 | 浙江大学 | Method for optimizing power grid planning scheme based on comprehensive cost model |
| CN104680254B (en) * | 2015-02-14 | 2017-12-26 | 浙江大学 | A kind of power network planning scheme method for optimizing based on integrated cost model |
| CN107203837A (en) * | 2017-05-03 | 2017-09-26 | 国网浙江省电力公司 | Region entirety economic life of equipment measuring method based on rate of load condensate and simultaneity factor |
| CN107203837B (en) * | 2017-05-03 | 2020-10-27 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司 | Regional overall equipment economic life measuring and calculating method based on load rate and concurrency rate |
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Application publication date: 20141008 |
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