CN104091063A - Method for using regression analysis for determining groundwater control level - Google Patents
Method for using regression analysis for determining groundwater control level Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for using regression analysis for determining an groundwater control level. The method includes the steps that an groundwater water numerical value mode is used for inverting the amount of mined groundwater; the developing and utilizing scheme of the mined groundwater is determined; the relational expression of an groundwater level and the amount of mined groundwater is established; the relational expression of the amount of mined groundwater and the settlement amount is established; the relational expression of the water level and the settlement amount is established; a ground settlement constrain condition and a settlement amount distributing scheme are determined. The method can provide a scientific basis for reasonable developing, utilizing and planning of the groundwater, and practicability is high.
Description
Technical field
The method that the present invention relates to determine Groundwater Control water level specifically, is a kind of method of utilizing regretional analysis to determine Groundwater Control water level.
Background technology
" water level " be significant and effect at Field of Groundwater Study, is that hydrogeology is calculated, the key index of Evaluation of Groundwater Resources, is also the key factor that affects groundwater environment, always as one of main contents of underground water technical work.Along with groundwater management problem is constantly complicated, before and after 2007, there is scholar to propose groundwater level and the water yield " binary management " theory; By 2012; the < < of State Council is about carrying out the suggestion > > (No. [2012] 3, promulgated by the State Council) of the strictest water resources management system; in " strict groundwater management and protection "; clearly propose " strengthening groundwater dynamic monitoring; carry out underground water and take water inventory control and water level control ", indicate that " water level " becomes one of important indicator of groundwater resource management." control water level " concept and definite method thereof are put in face of groundwater resource supvr subsequently, become and need the urgent difficult problem solving.Groundwater Control water level can be defined as " water level value under constraint condition ", refer to the general name of a series of water level values with clear and definite physical concept, the a series of water level values corresponding to the different exploitation states of underground water, corresponding to a series of water level values of the different yields of underground water, available " blue line water level " and " red line water level " describes the management objectives of groundwater resource in other words conj.or perhaps.Traditional study of groundwater field determines that the method for " water level " is a lot, comprise: seepage action of ground water numerical model method, grey forecasting model method, time series forecasting, regression analysis, hydrologic(al) budget method etc., but seldom relate to how to confirm " control water level ", and for different groundwater explo itation and utilization targets, the target of " control water level " is by difference, and the constraint condition that realizes " control water level " is also different.
Summary of the invention
Technical matters to be solved by this invention is, a kind of method that provides science to determine Groundwater Control water level, and rational exploitation and utilization and planning that the method can be local ground watering resource provide reference frame, have easy and practical feature.
In order to solve the problems of the technologies described above, the technical solution used in the present invention is: a kind of method of utilizing regretional analysis to determine Groundwater Control water level, comprises the following steps:
(1) set up underground water numerical model;
(2) utilize the amount of groundwater mining of certain stress phase of underground water numerical model inverting;
(3) set up groundwater level and yield, yield and settling amount and water level and settling amount relational expression;
(4) determine groundwater explo itation and utilization scheme;
(5) determine land subsidence constraint condition and settling amount allocative decision;
(6) utilize water level and yield and water level and settling amount relational expression, according to yield and settling amount, determine respectively and control water level.
Specifically, the present invention adopts following technical proposals:
Step 1: set up underground water numerical model:
Groundwater flow-land subsidence coupling model can be generalized as Unsteady Groundwater and the vertical compression soil model of one dimension of three-dimensional, the heterogeneous body each level same sex, can describe by the solution problem of determining of the following differential equation:
In formula: Ω-the flow domain; The water level elevation of h-ground water regime (m); The horizontal permeation coefficient (m/d) of K-water-bearing media; K
zthe vertical infiltration coefficient of-water-bearing media (m/d); The source sink term in ε-water-bearing zone (1/d); Q-total compression is released the water yield (1/d); q
1the water yield (1/d) is released in the compression of-anhysteretic; h
0the initial water level distribution (m) of-system; Following water-bearing zone, S-free face water storage rate (1/m); Γ
0the coboundary of-the flow domain, the i.e. Free Surface of underground water; The gravity feed degree of μ-table water aquifer on water table; The evaporation of p-water table and precipitation infiltration intensity etc. (m/d); Γ
1one class border of-the flow domain; Γ
2two class borders of-the flow domain; Γ
3three class borders of-the flow domain; Γ
4-anhysteretic compression region, water-bearing zone; Γ
5-hysteresis quality compression clay region; K
nthe infiltration coefficient of-boundary surface normal direction (m/d), the normal direction of n-boundary surface; h
r-tri-class border water level elevations (m); The resistance coefficient (d) on σ-tri-class border; △ b-anhysteretic decrement, b-anhysteretic thickness of compressed layer; S
sk(when water level is lower than early stage during lowest water level, this parameter is S to-skeleton water storage rate (1/m)
skv-non-resilient skeleton water storage rate, when water level is higher than early stage during lowest water level, this parameter is S
ske-elastic skeleton water storage rate); H'-hysteresis viscous soil horizon water level (m); S '
s-hysteresis viscous soil horizon water storage rate (1/m);
the vertical infiltration coefficient of-hysteresis viscous soil horizon (m/d); Δ b
0-initial settlement amount (m).
According to hydrogeological conceptual model, set up the three dimensional fluid flow numerical value of underground water and touch type.Utilize the matching of underground water flow field, the matching of groundwater level dynamic process line, the matching of land subsidence isoline, land subsidence graph matching model of cognition.
Step 2: the amount of groundwater mining that utilizes certain stress phase of underground water numerical model inverting:
When underground water is exploited, the most directly reaction is exactly the variation of water level, so the process that underground water is carried out to inverting is mainly to utilize the relation of water level to carry out.Utilize unified test water level, by GIS, the softwares such as SUFER, can obtain each moisture group, the water level value of each net point, utilizes ACCESS to establish the link, these grids are corresponding one by one with small towns, thus each small towns, each average actual water level of moisture group obtained.The yield of statistics is brought in model as initial yield, after operation, obtain the file that comprises head, utilize program to read the above water level value that has each net point of each layer in unified test water level value time, the mean water value in each small towns of simulation and actual water level value are compared, can obtain a water level difference.When water level out of simulation is during higher than actual water level, illustrate that yield is herein less than normal, need to strengthen exploitation, otherwise, when simulation water level is out during lower than actual water level, illustrating that yield is herein bigger than normal, need to reduce to exploit.The exploitation value that increases or reduce, adopts following formula to calculate.
In formula: Δ Q
ifor the variation of moisture group of yield of a certain small towns i, H
1 ithe mean water of a certain small towns i layer a certain stress phase of calculating for model, H
2 ifor the mean water of a certain small towns i layer a certain stress phase of reality, S
s ibe the coefficient of storage of i layer, the area that A is a certain small towns.
After model debugging checking, the amount of groundwater mining that is added in so each stress phase of each small towns, each district is the amount of groundwater mining of inverting.
Step 3: set up groundwater level and yield, yield and settling amount and water level and settling amount relational expression:
Get the long-time average annual value of model inversion yield, average yield is assigned on each net point of mode input file (being well file) for many years, wherein, between each each layer of district, the distribution of yield accounts for the ratio-dependent of total each district gross recovery according to the actual yield in each district.Respectively by certain stress phase for many years average yield 100%, 90%, 80%, 70%, 60%, 50%, 40%, 30%, 20%, 10%, 5% obtains yield, respectively input model, and keep other source sink term and parameter constant, moving model, each district in export target year each mean water of moisture group in different proportion yield situation, through model aftertreatment, statistics draws each level yield-underground water table, yield-settling amount correlationship during the lunar New Year.According to yield-water level correlationship and yield-settling amount correlationship, the yield by given different weight percentage draws corresponding water level and settling amount, and then sets up water level-settling amount correlationship.
Step 4: determine groundwater explo itation and utilization scheme:
According to local ground watering, develop planning, determine groundwater explo itation and utilization scheme.
Step 5: determine land subsidence constraint condition and settling amount allocative decision:
According to regional land subsidence, control planning, determine ground settlement.
Step 6: utilize water level and yield and water level and settling amount relational expression, determine respectively and control water level according to yield and settling amount.
In conjunction with yield-water level and yield-settling amount relational expression, bring definite groundwater explo itation and utilization amount and ground settlement into, controlled water level.
The invention has the beneficial effects as follows: be the rational Groundwater Control water level of definite area, for the rational exploitation and utilization of local ground watering resource and planning provide the reference frame of science, adopt regretional analysis to determine that Groundwater Control water level has easy and practical feature.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with embodiment, the present invention is described in further detail:
Embodiment: take Efficiency in Buildings in Tianjin Area determines Groundwater Control water level as example adopts the method.
Step 1: set up underground water numerical model:
Groundwater flow-land subsidence coupling model can be generalized as Unsteady Groundwater and the vertical compression soil model of one dimension of three-dimensional, the heterogeneous body each level same sex, can describe by the solution problem of determining of the following differential equation:
In formula: Ω-the flow domain; The water level elevation of h-ground water regime (m); The horizontal permeation coefficient (m/d) of K-water-bearing media; K
zthe vertical infiltration coefficient of-water-bearing media (m/d); The source sink term in ε-water-bearing zone (1/d); Q-total compression is released the water yield (1/d); q
1the water yield (1/d) is released in the compression of-anhysteretic; h
0the initial water level distribution (m) of-system; Following water-bearing zone, S-free face water storage rate (1/m); Γ
0the coboundary of-the flow domain, the i.e. Free Surface of underground water; The gravity feed degree of μ-table water aquifer on water table; The evaporation of p-water table and precipitation infiltration intensity etc. (m/d); Γ
1one class border of-the flow domain; Γ
2two class borders of-the flow domain; Γ
3three class borders of-the flow domain; Γ
4-anhysteretic compression region, water-bearing zone; Γ
5-hysteresis quality compression clay region; K
nthe infiltration coefficient of-boundary surface normal direction (m/d), the normal direction of n-boundary surface; h
r-tri-class border water level elevations (m); The resistance coefficient (d) on σ-tri-class border; △ b-anhysteretic decrement, b-anhysteretic thickness of compressed layer; S
sk(when water level is lower than early stage during lowest water level, this parameter is S to-skeleton water storage rate (1/m)
skv-non-resilient skeleton water storage rate, when water level is higher than early stage during lowest water level, this parameter is S
ske-elastic skeleton water storage rate); H'-hysteresis viscous soil horizon water level (m); S '
s-hysteresis viscous soil horizon water storage rate (1/m);
the vertical infiltration coefficient of-hysteresis viscous soil horizon (m/d); Δ b
0-initial settlement amount (m).
According to the hydrogeological conceptual model of having set up, set up the three dimensional fluid flow numerical value of region of no relief, Tianjin underground water and touch type.By adjusting infiltration coefficient, specific yield-water storage rate and the water-bearing zone yield-compression in each water-bearing zone, release the water yield, last according to calculating underground water flow field and observation port graph and actual measurement contrast, thereby realize, the three dimensional fluid flow numerical model of region of no relief, Tianjin underground water is identified to checking.
Step 2: the amount of groundwater mining that utilizes certain stress phase of underground water numerical model inverting:
When underground water is exploited, the most directly reaction is exactly the variation of water level, so the process that underground water is carried out to inverting is mainly to utilize the relation of water level to carry out.Utilize the unified test water level of existing 2000,2002,2005,2006,2007,2008, pass through GIS, the softwares such as SUFER, can obtain each moisture group, the water level value of each net point, utilize ACCESS to establish the link, these grids are corresponding one by one with small towns, thus obtain each small towns, each average actual water level of moisture group.The yield of statistics is brought in model as initial yield, after operation, obtain the file that comprises head, utilize program to read the above water level value that has each net point of each layer in unified test water level value time, the mean water value in each small towns of simulation and actual water level value are compared, can obtain a water level difference.When water level out of simulation is during higher than actual water level, illustrate that yield is herein less than normal, need to strengthen exploitation, otherwise, when simulation water level is out during lower than actual water level, illustrating that yield is herein bigger than normal, need to reduce to exploit.The exploitation value that increases or reduce, adopts following formula to calculate.
In formula: Δ Q
ifor the variation of moisture group of yield of a certain small towns i, H
1 ithe mean water of a certain small towns i layer a certain stress phase of calculating for model, H
2 ifor the mean water of a certain small towns i layer a certain stress phase of reality, S
s ibe the coefficient of storage of i layer, the area that A is a certain small towns.
After model debugging checking, the amount of groundwater mining that is added in so each stress phase of each small towns, each district is the amount of groundwater mining of inverting.
Step 3: set up groundwater level and yield, yield and settling amount and water level and settling amount relational expression:
1998～2008 years yields that are finally inversed by according to Tianjin groundwater model, the long-time average annual value of yield is drilled in negate, 1998～2008 years average yields for many years, average yield is assigned on each net point of mode input file (being well file) for many years, wherein, between each each layer of district, the distribution of yield accounts for the ratio-dependent of total each district gross recovery according to the actual yield in each district.Respectively by 1998～2008 years for many years average yield 100%, 90%, 80%, 70%, 60%, 50%, 40%, 30%, 20%, 10%, 5% obtains yield, distinguish input model, and keep other source sink term and parameter constant, the stress phase extends to 252, moving model, each mean water of moisture group and the average settling amount of each district in three target years of output in different proportion yield situation, through model aftertreatment, statistics draws each level yield-underground water table and yield-settling amount correlationship during the lunar New Year.
According to yield-water level correlationship and yield-settling amount correlationship, the yield by given different weight percentage draws corresponding water level and settling amount, and then sets up water level-settling amount correlationship.
Step 4: determine groundwater explo itation and utilization scheme:
Mining of groundwater scheme is divided into two stages enforcements in the recent period: before south water to north water flowing in 2014, year amount of groundwater mining 7.37 hundred million m maintain the statusquo
3/ a, wherein I water-bearing zone group amount of groundwater mining 0.79 hundred million m
3/ a, II is to VI water-bearing zone group amount of groundwater mining 6.58 hundred million m
3/ a; After south water to north water flowing in 2015, control amount of groundwater mining 5.39 hundred million m
3/ a, wherein I water-bearing zone amount of groundwater mining 2.08 hundred million m
3/ a, II is to VI water-bearing zone group amount of groundwater mining 3.31 hundred million m
3/ a.
Step 5: determine land subsidence constraint condition and settling amount allocative decision:
(2015) target in the recent period, the annual settling amount of realizing whole Tianjin is controlled in 30mm, and inner city annual settling amount is controlled in 15mm, and Binhai New District annual settling amount is controlled in 20mm.And using this settling amount constraint condition as settling amount constraint condition corresponding to immediate objective year red line control water level.
Mid-term (the year two thousand twenty) target, the annual settling amount of realizing whole Tianjin is controlled in 20mm, inner city annual settling amount is controlled in 10mm, Binhai New District annual settling amount is controlled in 15mm.And using this condition as settling amount constraint condition corresponding to immediate objective year blue line control water level and settling amount constraint condition corresponding to medium-term goal year red line control water level.
(the year two thousand thirty) target at a specified future date, the annual settling amount of realizing whole Tianjin is controlled in 10mm, and inner city annual settling amount is controlled in 5mm, and Binhai New District annual settling amount is controlled in 5mm.And using this condition as settling amount constraint condition corresponding to medium-term goal year blue line control water level and settling amount constraint condition corresponding to long-term goal year red line control water level.
Long-term goal blue line is controlled settling amount constraint condition corresponding to water level, and the annual settling amount that is defined as realizing each district, Tianjin is controlled at 0mm, reaches a desirable benefit equilibrium stage of adopting.
Step 6: utilize water level and yield and water level and settling amount relational expression, determine respectively and control water level according to yield and settling amount.
In conjunction with yield-water level and yield-settling amount relational expression, bring definite groundwater explo itation and utilization amount and ground settlement into, controlled water level.
Above-described embodiment is only for illustrating technological thought of the present invention and feature, its object is to make those skilled in the art can understand content of the present invention and implement according to this, can not only with the present embodiment, limit the scope of the claims of the present invention, be equal variation or the modification that all disclosed spirit is done, still drop in the scope of the claims of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. utilize regretional analysis to determine a method for Groundwater Control water level, it is characterized in that, comprise the following steps:
(1) set up underground water numerical model;
(2) utilize the amount of groundwater mining of certain stress phase of underground water numerical model inverting;
(3) set up groundwater level and yield, yield and settling amount and water level and settling amount relational expression;
(4) determine groundwater explo itation and utilization scheme;
(5) determine land subsidence constraint condition and settling amount allocative decision;
(6) utilize water level and yield and water level and settling amount relational expression, according to yield and settling amount, determine respectively and control water level.
2. the method for utilizing regretional analysis to determine Groundwater Control water level according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, in described step (1), set up underground water numerical model and refer to and set up three-dimensional or multi-layer Underground Water stream numerical simulator, utilize the matching of underground water flow field, the matching of groundwater level dynamic process line, the matching of land subsidence isoline, land subsidence graph matching model of cognition.
3. the method for utilizing regretional analysis to determine Groundwater Control water level according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, in described step (2), utilize the amount of groundwater mining of certain stress phase of underground water numerical model inverting to refer to that after model debugging checking, the amount of groundwater mining that is added in each stress phase of each computing unit is the amount of groundwater mining of inverting.
4. the method for utilizing regretional analysis to determine Groundwater Control water level according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, in described step (3), set up groundwater level and yield, yield and settling amount and water level and settling amount relational expression and refer to moving model, output yield and settling amount, set up water level and yield and water level and settling amount relational expression according to measured water level.
5. the method for utilizing regretional analysis to determine Groundwater Control water level according to claim 1, is characterized in that, determines that groundwater explo itation and utilization scheme refers to the groundwater explo itation and utilization amount of determining in described step (4).
6. the method for utilizing regretional analysis to determine Groundwater Control water level according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, in described step (5), determine that land subsidence constraint condition and settling amount allocative decision refer to according to regional land subsidence control planning, determine ground settlement, determine land subsidence target.
7. the method for utilizing regretional analysis to determine Groundwater Control water level according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, in described step (6), utilize water level and yield and water level and settling amount relational expression, according to yield and settling amount, determine that respectively controlling water level refers to water level and yield, water level and the settling amount relational expression of utilizing foundation, bring definite amount of groundwater mining and ground settlement into, solve and draw control water level.
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Application publication date: 20141008 |