CN104063805A - Processing method and device of cold and hot electric load prediction data of area buildings in comprehensive energy planning - Google Patents
Processing method and device of cold and hot electric load prediction data of area buildings in comprehensive energy planning Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to a processing method and device of cold and hot electric load prediction data of area buildings in comprehensive energy planning. The method comprises the steps that (1) a basic sample data accumulation module, a working procedure design module and a data comprehensive analysis processing module are built; (2) the basic sample data accumulation module is used for collecting and storing geographical location information, the building area, property information, population density information, the industry scale and industry structure information and belonging detailed energy distribution information of the area buildings to form a basic sample database; (3) the working procedure design module is used for performing time series distribution prediction on comprehensive loads on the basic of the basic sample database in the step (1), and corresponding data processing steps and data processing forms are designed; (4) the data comprehensive analysis processing module is used for performing comprehensive analysis and calculation on cold and hot electric load prediction data of the area buildings. The invention correspondingly discloses the processing device of the processing method. The processing method and device can build a good foundation and provide the related basis for different energy use.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to disposal route and the device of region Building Cooling electric load predicted data in a kind of integrated energy planning, be applicable to urban planning and construction energy forecast planning and process.Belong to low-carbon economy Development Technology field.
Background technology
Domestic comprehensive energy utilization planning is the frontier under low-carbon economy development recently, main to city special area (from a large-scale development area, garden or a building) can promote novel energy independence supply model, improve spatter property and the utilization ratio of energy utilization.The planning of this type of engineering and early-stage Study need comprehensive load prediction method as basis and the foundation of energy source configuration.
In prior art, generally to adopt single electric power or heating power load forecasting method, mainly from the national economic development, the development angle of region construction is set out, take historical development and plot load density is foundation, by the single energy or load form, set out, the electric power in region or heating power load and consumption are predicted, using this relevant foundation as power equipment and architectural design.Prediction algorithm due to this single electric power or heating power load, mainly to adopt plot densimetry or historical data to drill pushing manipulation, there is following defect: only from single load angle, do not carry out the interactional factor analysis of each type load, do not consider regenerative resource and clean energy resource comprehensive utilization, do not consider electric power, cold and heating power load and influencing each other each other, therefore, this single load prediction mouth is single result, cause repeated test and overall test result inaccurate, waste of manpower and time, cannot solve comprehensive energy and utilize planning problem.
Summary of the invention
One of object of the present invention, to adopt the single energy or load to carry out analyzing and processing as foundation in order to solve prediction algorithm and the technology of existing electric power or heating power load, cannot meet existing regenerative resource and the clean energy resource problem to comprehensive consideration electric power, cold and heating power load, the disposal route of region Building Cooling electric load predicted data in a kind of integrated energy planning is provided.
Two of object of the present invention is for the treating apparatus of region Building Cooling electric load predicted data in a kind of integrated energy planning is provided.
One of object of the present invention can be achieved through the following technical solutions:
In integrated energy planning, the disposal route of region Building Cooling electric load predicted data, is characterized in that comprising the steps:
1) set up basic sample data accumulation module, workflow design module and aggregation of data analysis and processing module;
2) utilize basic sample data accumulation module collection and store geographical location information, floor area of building and property information, density of population information, industry size and the industrial structure information of each region building, affiliated energy source distribution details, basis of formation sample database;
3) by workflow design module by step 1) basic sample database carry out the timing distribution prediction of synthetic load, design corresponding data processing step and data processing formula, this data processing formula comprises data input, historical data library call, synthetic four parts of load labor and macroscopical time scale, in processing formula, construction area in planning is divided into the power unit of corresponding size according to certain principle, utilize typical load curve and BUILDINGS MODELS database to call synthetic, form design database, again according to the geographic position of energy source distribution in described design database prediction corresponding units, quantity,
4) aggregation of data analysis and processing module is comprehensively analyzed computing to region Building Cooling electric load predicted data, and method is as follows:
4-1) adopt various energy resources macroscopic comprehensive analysis method, utilize the time-domain analysis technology of typical load curve, in comprehensive energy, utilize the mutual substitutional relation of cool and thermal power load, take the whole energy as subject area Energy Sources Equilibrium relation relatively studying all kinds of energy schemes, with primary energy total amount, electricity, hot and cold many index output, for comprehensive energy, draw multi-faceted reference is provided simultaneously;
4-2) adopt with time Dimension Synthesis output method, utilize the multi-level matching of different time yardstick and the algorithm of division, the different time yardstick of realization from time to timesharing realized the conversion of all kinds of energy demands, synthetic to minute whole energy demand in year from the simulated data of timesharing, for comprehensive energy is drawn the reference data that provides multi-faceted;
4-3) utilize emulation and data analysis algorithm, adopt data mining index and COMPREHENSIVE CALCULATING method and technology, by the comprehensive analysis method to load and energy resource consumption, the requirement of calmodulin binding domain CaM planning, cold by the mechanism accurately predicting that influences each other between cool and thermal power, heat, the Various types of data of electric load and the whole energy, for comprehensive energy is drawn the reference data that provides multi-faceted.
One of object of the present invention can be achieved through the following technical solutions:
Further, described basic sample data accumulation module can source distribution details include hot and cold, electricity and the various information of energy total amount in each region, for comprehensive energy is drawn the reference data that provides multi-faceted.
Further, the energy behaviour in service that described aggregation of data analysis and processing module is extrapolated each region is load curve formula, BUILDINGS MODELS formula or list formula and is presented on computer screen.
Further, the energy behaviour in service that described aggregation of data analysis and processing module is extrapolated each region is on the concrete position, status that different colours is presented on computer display virtual map.
Two of object of the present invention can be achieved through the following technical solutions:
The treating apparatus of region Building Cooling electric load predicted data in integrated energy planning, its design feature is: comprise basic sample data accumulation module, workflow design module and aggregation of data analysis and processing module, described basic sample data accumulation module has the circuit structure of geographical location information unit, floor area of building and the property information unit, density of population message unit, industry size and the industrial structure message unit that gather and store each region and build, time and affiliated energy distributed intelligence unit, basis of formation sample database; Described workflow design module has building data and the industry data circuit structure of the input of storing, and specifically comprises: the geographic position information unit of building, floor area of building and character information unit, density of population information unit, time or industry size configuration data unit and reception and call the correlation energy source distribution information of database in basic sample data accumulation module; Described aggregation of data analysis and processing module is aggregation of data analytical calculation treatment technology, according to the correlation energy source distribution information of exporting in workflow design module, carry out analyzing and processing, can extrapolate the energy behaviour in service in each region, and intuitively be embodied on computer screen.
The present invention has following outstanding beneficial effect:
The disposal route of the region Building Cooling electric load predicted data 1, the present invention relates to combines the data of geographic position, floor area of building and character, the density of population and the industry size structural diversification of each region building, from whole ENERGY PLANNING visual angle, consider electric power, hot and cold comprehensive load prediction, systematically accurately carry out an actual area (from a large-scale development area, garden or a building) the cold prediction of electric heating, analyze corresponding transformational relation therebetween, for comprehensive utilization of energy, different energy sources utilizes the essential of scheme to lay a good foundation.
2, each region Building Cooling electric load predicted data disposal route the present invention relates to can be applied in the comprehensive load prediction in regional complex ENERGY PLANNING, by setting up the data base library of electricity, hot and cold load prediction, mutual all kinds of part throttle characteristics are studied, set up the analysis of load overall target, finally to relevant region, can access comprehensive load prediction value, for integrated energy planning, energy utilization configuration provide relevant foundation.
3, the treating apparatus of the region Building Cooling electric load predicted data the present invention relates to, can be for different regions and feature, load prediction data are accurately and reliably provided, and based on this, by global energy balance, study, regional complex energy source configuration form and the allocation plan of optimization are provided, and to user, provide the operating scheme of optimization, realize efficient, economical, low-carbon (LC), reliable energy resource system, its achievement can be applicable to integrated energy planning, design and running application in early stage, to consolidating and promoting electricity power, plan that technology status and the influence power in association area is significant in engineering construction.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 are the functional-block diagram of the treating apparatus of region of the present invention Building Cooling electric load predicted data.
Fig. 3 is the synthetic interface schematic diagram of region load curve the present invention relates to.
Fig. 4 and Fig. 5 are the total damage curve of region, the typical urban of the present invention energy over the years.
Fig. 6 is comprehensive energy of the present invention (refrigeration duty) schematic diagram that predicts the outcome.
Fig. 7 is the synthetic Energy Demand Forecast process flow diagram of the present invention.
Fig. 8 and Fig. 9 are that the typical case of the overall electric load of representative region of the present invention exports schematic diagram.
Embodiment
See figures.1.and.2, the treating apparatus of region Building Cooling electric load predicted data in the integrated energy planning that the present embodiment relates to, comprise basic sample data accumulation module 1, workflow design module 2 and aggregation of data analysis and processing module 3, described basic sample data accumulation module 1 has the geographical location information unit 4 that gathers and store each region building, floor area of building and property information unit 5, density of population message unit 7, industry size and industrial structure message unit 6, the circuit structure of time and affiliated energy distributed intelligence unit, basis of formation sample database, described workflow design module 2 has building data and the industry data circuit structure of the input of storing, and specifically comprises: the geographic position information unit 4 of building, floor area of building and character information unit 5, density of population information unit 7, time or industry size configuration data unit 6 and receive and call the correlation energy source distribution information of basic sample data accumulation module 1 interior database, described aggregation of data analysis and processing module 3 is aggregation of data analytical calculation treatment technology, according to the correlation energy source distribution information of output in workflow design module 2, carry out analyzing and processing, can extrapolate the energy behaviour in service in each region, and intuitively be embodied on computer screen.
With reference to Fig. 3-Fig. 9, in the integrated energy planning that the present embodiment relates to, the disposal route of region Building Cooling electric load predicted data, is characterized in that comprising the steps:
1) set up basic sample data accumulation module 1, workflow design module 2 and aggregation of data analysis and processing module 3;
2) utilize basic sample data to accumulate module 1 and gather and store geographical location information 4, floor area of building and property information 5, density of population information 7, industry size and the industrial structure information 6 of each region building, affiliated energy source distribution details, basis of formation sample database;
3) by workflow design module 2 by step 1) basic sample database carry out the timing distribution prediction of synthetic load, design corresponding data processing step and data processing formula, this data processing formula comprises data inputs (11), historical data library call 12, synthetic 14 4 parts of load labor 13 and macroscopical time scale, in processing formula, construction area in planning is divided into the power unit of corresponding size according to certain principle, utilize typical load curve and BUILDINGS MODELS database to call synthetic, form design database, again according to the geographic position of energy source distribution in described design database prediction corresponding units, quantity,
4) 3 pairs of region Building Cooling electric load predicted data of aggregation of data analysis and processing module are comprehensively analyzed computing, and method is as follows:
4-1) adopt various energy resources macroscopic comprehensive analysis method, utilize the time-domain analysis technology of typical load curve, in comprehensive energy, utilize the mutual substitutional relation of cool and thermal power load, take the whole energy as subject area Energy Sources Equilibrium relation relatively studying all kinds of energy schemes, with primary energy total amount, electricity, hot and cold many index output, for comprehensive energy, draw multi-faceted reference is provided simultaneously;
4-2) adopt with time Dimension Synthesis output method, utilize the multi-level matching of different time yardstick and the algorithm of division, the different time yardstick of realization from time to timesharing realized the conversion of all kinds of energy demands, synthetic to minute whole energy demand in year from the simulated data of timesharing, for comprehensive energy is drawn the reference data that provides multi-faceted;
4-3) utilize emulation and data analysis algorithm, adopt data mining index and COMPREHENSIVE CALCULATING method and technology, by the comprehensive analysis method to load and energy resource consumption, the requirement of calmodulin binding domain CaM planning, cold by the mechanism accurately predicting that influences each other between cool and thermal power, heat, the Various types of data of electric load and the whole energy, for comprehensive energy is drawn the reference data that provides multi-faceted.
Further, described basic sample data accumulation module 1 can source distribution details include hot and cold, electricity and the various information of energy total amount in each region, for comprehensive energy is drawn the reference data that provides multi-faceted.
Further, the energy behaviour in service that described aggregation of data analysis and processing module 3 is extrapolated each region is load curve formula, BUILDINGS MODELS formula or list formula and is presented on computer screen.
Further, the energy behaviour in service that described aggregation of data analysis and processing module 3 is extrapolated each region is on the concrete position, status that different colours is presented on computer display virtual map.
In the present embodiment:
Described basic sample data accumulation module 1 gathers the collection and the comprehensive basic data of analyzing of multiple actual building industry energy requirement sample; Described workflow design module 2 builds input system, by all kinds of inputted searches, asks for and in conjunction with historical data analysis, export and be applicable to comprehensive energy correlated results in basic sample data accumulation module 1; Described aggregation of data analysis and processing module 3 composition data comprehensive analysis processing unit, to processing at the relevant comprehensive energy data analysis of basic sample data accumulation module 1 search in workflow design module 2.The data that described basic sample data accumulation module 1 gathers are output as workflow design module 2 and ask for master data is provided, the related data that workflow design module 2 is asked in basic sample data accumulation module 1 according to input exports aggregation of data analysis and processing module 3 to, carries out computational analysis processing draw rational energy forecast of distribution data by aggregation of data analysis and processing module 3.
Described basic sample data accumulation module 1 can source distribution details include hot and cold, electricity and the various information of energy total amount in each region, include and set up complete energy resource consumption and electricity, heat, cold Comprehensive Model, this forecast model comprises that the diversification database of geographic position 4, floor area of building and character 5, the density of population 7 and the industry size structure 6 of being built by each region forms and the load characteristic curve of dissimilar industry, and described database includes data input, the timing distribution that described workflow design module 2 is carried out synthetic load by basic sample data accumulation module 1 database is predicted, design corresponding data processing step and worked out relevant disposal system, this disposal system includes data input cell 11, historical data base call unit 12, load labor unit 13, 14 4 parts of macroscopic view time scale synthesis unit form, in disposal system, construction area in planning is divided into the power unit of corresponding size according to certain principle, utilize typical load curve and BUILDINGS MODELS database to call synthetic, according to the geographic position of energy source distribution in design database prediction corresponding units, quantity, the energy behaviour in service of extrapolating each region of described aggregation of data analysis and processing module 3 can be load curve formula, BUILDINGS MODELS formula or list formula and is presented on computer screen or with different colours, is presented on the concrete position, status of computer display virtual map, as shown in Fig. 4 to Fig. 8.Aggregation of data analysis and processing module 3 comprehensive energies described in, the relationship analysis of cool and thermal power load and primary energy in region, in conjunction with having set up primary energy data, mutually change the technology algorithm that multi-scheme is comprehensively analyzed and different time yardstick energy conversion is exported, the demonstration of the visual result of algorithm on computers.
A kind of load integrated forecasting scheme the present invention relates to, comprise: data model and the analysis results accumulation of (1) all kinds of actual buildings and industry, (2) forecast analysis flow scheme design, (3) (energy comprising turns the integrated data processing technology of Various types of data model mutually, and different time yardstick is the algorithm of exerting oneself of the data processing of conversion mutually.With this, can carry out the multiple energy forecast utilizing under sight to the variable energy resource system of complexity, multiple dimensioned Energy Demand Forecast result is provided.For integrated energy planning provides relevant foundation.
1) set up complete energy resource consumption and electricity, heat, cold Comprehensive Model, according to the concrete investigation of southern area and northern area, accumulated the database of building and the load characteristic curve of dissimilar industry of more than 200 (type).For the region of different scale, all can develop by economics of population, build the input of a plurality of data such as character and area, industry development.
The BUILDINGS MODELS simulation result that is suitable for all kinds of load predictions of electric system:
2) timing distribution of carrying out synthetic load by this technology and supporting database is predicted.Design corresponding data processing step and worked out relevant handling implement software, construction area in planning is divided into the power unit of corresponding size according to certain principle, utilize typical load curve (collected hundreds of real case, set up different industries database) and BUILDINGS MODELS database to call synthetic.According to geographic position, the quantity of energy source distribution in design database prediction corresponding units.Utilize data input cell, four parts such as historical data base call unit, load labor unit, macroscopical time scale synthesis unit form.
The present invention can be for different regions and feature, load prediction data are accurately and reliably provided, and based on this, by global energy balance, study, regional complex energy source configuration form and the allocation plan of optimization are provided, and to user, provide the operating scheme of optimization, realize efficient, economy, low-carbon (LC), energy resource system reliably, its achievement can be applicable to integrated energy planning, design and running application in early stage, to consolidating and promoting electricity power, plans that technology status and the influence power in association area is significant in engineering construction.This comprehensive load prediction method, new knowledge city, the district's integrated energy planning of front Haiti in Guangzhou, low-carbon (LC) city, Shenzhen can be ground etc. in multinomial work and effectively be applied.
Carry out respectively independent electric power, heating power and cooling load prediction, and finally Various types of data is gathered.Its shortcoming is at floor area of building, and the work relatively repeating is carried out in the statistical study meetings such as development.And relative with meeting in the interactional analysis of electric cooling and heating load numerous and diverse and difficult in energy source configuration.Meanwhile, traditional Energy Demand Forecast, only from single time scale, is difficult to reach the result of method of operation explication de texte.
Industry based under actual load model and building database accumulation and analytical technology and achievement are the important foundations of comprehensive load prediction under Multiple Time Scales, comprising the accumulation gathering throughout the country the conclusion of dependent quantization of the database of building of more than 200 (type) and the load characteristic curve of dissimilar industry and relevant Load Characteristic Analysis.
The present invention effectively combines mathematical modeling means, makes the energy demand of urban area describe accurately.This invention has a large amount of measured datas as technical support, has constructed the method step of comprehensive energy prediction, has also write relevant software and has simulated simultaneously.Wherein also apply Integrated Energy facture and energy demand yardstick transformation approach and obtained all kinds of Energy Demand Forecast results from minute year to timesharing, for the multi-faceted demand of integrated energy planning provides foundation, contribute to improve efficiency and the economic benefit of whole energy resource system.
Claims (5)
1. the disposal route of region Building Cooling electric load predicted data in integrated energy planning, is characterized in that comprising the steps:
1) set up basic sample data accumulation module (1), workflow design module (2) and aggregation of data analysis and processing module (3);
2) utilize basic sample data accumulation module (1) to gather and store geographical location information (4), floor area of building and property information (5), density of population information (7), industry size and the industrial structure information (6) of each region building, affiliated energy source distribution details, basis of formation sample database;
3) by workflow design module (2) by step 1) basic sample database carry out the timing distribution prediction of synthetic load, design corresponding data processing step and data processing formula, this data processing formula comprises data inputs (11), historical data library call (12), synthetic (14) four parts of load labor (13) and macroscopical time scale, in processing formula, construction area in planning is divided into the power unit of corresponding size according to certain principle, utilize typical load curve and BUILDINGS MODELS database to call synthetic, form design database, again according to the geographic position of energy source distribution in described design database prediction corresponding units, quantity,
4) aggregation of data analysis and processing module (3) is comprehensively analyzed computing to region Building Cooling electric load predicted data, and method is as follows:
4-1) adopt various energy resources macroscopic comprehensive analysis method, utilize the time-domain analysis technology of typical load curve, in comprehensive energy, utilize the mutual substitutional relation of cool and thermal power load, take the whole energy as subject area Energy Sources Equilibrium relation relatively studying all kinds of energy schemes, with primary energy total amount, electricity, hot and cold many index output, for comprehensive energy, draw multi-faceted reference is provided simultaneously;
4-2) adopt with time Dimension Synthesis output method, utilize the multi-level matching of different time yardstick and the algorithm of division, the different time yardstick of realization from time to timesharing realized the conversion of all kinds of energy demands, synthetic to minute whole energy demand in year from the simulated data of timesharing, for comprehensive energy is drawn the reference data that provides multi-faceted;
4-3) utilize emulation and data analysis algorithm, adopt data mining index and COMPREHENSIVE CALCULATING method and technology, by the comprehensive analysis method to load and energy resource consumption, the requirement of calmodulin binding domain CaM planning, cold by the mechanism accurately predicting that influences each other between cool and thermal power, heat, the Various types of data of electric load and the whole energy, for comprehensive energy is drawn the reference data that provides multi-faceted.
2. the disposal route of region Building Cooling electric load predicted data in integrated energy planning according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: described basic sample data accumulation module (1) can source distribution details include hot and cold, electricity and the various information of energy total amount in each region, for comprehensive energy is drawn the reference data that provides multi-faceted.
3. the disposal route of region Building Cooling electric load predicted data in integrated energy planning according to claim 1 and 2, is characterized in that: the energy behaviour in service that described aggregation of data analysis and processing module (3) is extrapolated each region is load curve formula, BUILDINGS MODELS formula or list formula and is presented on computer screen.
4. the disposal route of region Building Cooling electric load predicted data in integrated energy planning according to claim 1 and 2, is characterized in that: the energy behaviour in service that described aggregation of data analysis and processing module (3) is extrapolated each region is on the concrete position, status that different colours is presented on computer display virtual map.
5. the treating apparatus of region Building Cooling electric load predicted data in integrated energy planning, it is characterized in that: comprise basic sample data accumulation module (1), workflow design module (2) and aggregation of data analysis and processing module (3), described basic sample data accumulation module (1) has the geographical location information unit (4) that gathers and store each region building, floor area of building and property information unit (5), density of population message unit (7), industry size and industrial structure message unit (6), the circuit structure of time and affiliated energy distributed intelligence unit, basis of formation sample database, described workflow design module (2) has building data and the industry data circuit structure of the input of storing, and specifically comprises: the geographic position information unit (4) of building, floor area of building and character information unit (5), density of population information unit (7), time or industry size configuration data unit (6) and receive and call the correlation energy source distribution information that basic sample data is accumulated the interior database of module (1), described aggregation of data analysis and processing module (3) is aggregation of data analytical calculation treatment technology, according to the correlation energy source distribution information of output in workflow design module (2), carry out analyzing and processing, can extrapolate the energy behaviour in service in each region, and intuitively be embodied on computer screen.
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| CN111798033A (en) * | 2020-06-05 | 2020-10-20 | 国网上海市电力公司 | Method and device for constructing combined analysis model of cooling, heating and power loads of comprehensive energy |
| CN116703135A (en) * | 2023-08-10 | 2023-09-05 | 安徽博诺思信息科技有限公司 | Power line construction planning analysis and evaluation method |
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