CN103886517B - A kind of methods of risk assessment of 10kV power distribution networks responsible consumer - Google Patents
A kind of methods of risk assessment of 10kV power distribution networks responsible consumer Download PDFInfo
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- CN103886517B CN103886517B CN201410099442.6A CN201410099442A CN103886517B CN 103886517 B CN103886517 B CN 103886517B CN 201410099442 A CN201410099442 A CN 201410099442A CN 103886517 B CN103886517 B CN 103886517B
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- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 19
- 238000012502 risk assessment Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 18
- 206010027476 Metastases Diseases 0.000 claims abstract description 29
- 230000009401 metastasis Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 29
- 230000007704 transition Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 26
- 238000010276 construction Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 6
- 230000004888 barrier function Effects 0.000 claims description 2
- 238000004088 simulation Methods 0.000 abstract description 5
- 230000005611 electricity Effects 0.000 description 2
- 208000027418 Wounds and injury Diseases 0.000 description 1
- 238000006243 chemical reaction Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000006378 damage Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000003912 environmental pollution Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000013210 evaluation model Methods 0.000 description 1
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
- Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
- Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
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Abstract
The invention provides a kind of methods of risk assessment of 10kV power distribution networks responsible consumer, including step 1：Working condition type, failure-frequency and the repair time of 10kV power distribution networks are set；Step 2：Construction work state transition model；Step 3：By obtaining the transfer time point of working condition transition, the state metastasis sequence of working condition is determined, so as to carry out risk assessment to responsible consumer.Compared to the prior art, a kind of methods of risk assessment of 10kV power distribution networks responsible consumer that the present invention is provided, the failure behavior of co-variation power station redundancy Connection Mode can be described exactly, macrocyclic state metastasis sequence can be expeditiously formed in long period simulation process, the demand of laboratory simulations and scene application is fully met.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to system for distribution network of power field, and in particular to a kind of methods of risk assessment of distribution network users.
Background technology
Important power consumers are to occupy important in country or the social, political of area (city), economic life
Status, personal injury, larger environmental pollution, larger political fallout, larger economic loss, society will likely be caused to its interruption of power supply
The electricity consumption place for having particular/special requirement with electric unit or to power supply reliability of meeting public order heavy clutter.Important electricity is avoided as far as possible
Power user power failure is that a vital task of field of power lifts weight, it is necessary to be taken measures in planning and designing and operation phase
The power supply reliability of power consumer is wanted, its operation risk level is reduced.Therefore it provides a kind of suitable for system for distribution network of power
Important power consumers methods of risk assessment is particularly important.
The content of the invention
The need in order to meet prior art, the invention provides a kind of risk assessment side of 10kV power distribution networks responsible consumer
Method, methods described comprises the steps：
Step 1：Working condition type, failure-frequency and the repair time of the 10kV power distribution networks are set；
Step 2：Construction work state transition model；And
Step 3：By obtaining the transfer time point of working condition transition, the state transfer sequence of the working condition is determined
Row, so as to carry out risk assessment to responsible consumer.
Preferably, the fault type of the 10kV power distribution networks includes substation fault, main feeder failure and siding failure；
Working condition type in the step 1 includes five kinds of working conditions；Working condition one is substation fault；Working condition two is
Transformer station, main feeder and siding are normal；Working condition three is for transformer station is normal, main feeder is normal and siding failure；Work
Make state four for transformer station is normal, siding is normal and main feeder failure；Working condition five is for transformer station is normal, main feeder failure
With siding failure；
Preferably, failure-frequency includes main feeder failure-frequency λm, siding failure-frequency λbWith substation fault frequency
λsub；The repair time includes main feeder repair time Tm, siding repair time TbWith transformer station's repair time Tsub；
Preferably, by working condition type, failure-frequency and repair time construction work state transition model：
Working condition with 2-way state transfer includes：Working condition one and working condition two, working condition one and work
Make state three, working condition two and working condition three, working condition two and working condition four, working condition three and working condition
Five；
With unidirectional state transfer working condition be：Working condition four-way working condition five is unidirectionally shifted；
The fault rate λ that working condition two is shifted to working condition one2→1=λsub, repair time T1→2=Tsub；
The fault rate λ that working condition two is shifted to working condition three2→3=λb, repair time T3→2=Tb；
The fault rate λ that working condition two is shifted to working condition four2→4=λsub, repair time T4→2=Tm；
The fault rate of the transfer of working condition three-dimensional working condition oneRepair time T1→3=Tsub；
The fault rate of the transfer of working condition three-dimensional working condition fiveRepair time T5→3=Tm；
The fault rate λ of the transfer of working condition four-way working condition five4→5=λb；
Preferably, determine that the state metastasis sequence of working condition includes in the step 3：
Obtain working condition i respectively to the transfer time point of other working condition transition, and by the transfer time point by
It is small to being ranked up greatly, so that it is determined that next working condition is the minimum working condition j of transfer time point, wherein transfer time
PointI, j ∈ { 1,2,3,4,5 }, r are equally distributed random number between 0~1；
The state metastasis sequence of the working condition i includes carrying out successively working condition i, the working condition j of transition transfer
N number of working condition after being shifted with working condition j, N >=0；Working condition j shifted after n-th work shape
The transfer time of state is the sum of the transfer time point of preceding N-1 working condition；
Preferably, working condition sequence is equal in the state metastasis sequence for obtaining every time according to the working condition metastasis model
It is different；The working condition sequence meets the statistical law of the working condition metastasis model；
Preferably, in the step 3 after macrocyclic state metastasis sequence is obtained, any work is determined according to the law of large numbers
The probability of happening for making state is the duration of the working condition to account for the ratio value of total emulation cycle, so as to pass through working condition
Probability of happening risk assessment is carried out to responsible consumer.
Compared with immediate prior art, excellent effect of the invention is：
1st, in technical solution of the present invention, working condition type is divided into five kinds of working conditions, objectively characterizes important use
Practical risk scene and its characteristic of mutual conversion that family is faced, and do not increase model complexity excessively；
2nd, in technical solution of the present invention, by transfer time pointDetermine the state transfer of working condition
Sequence, required parameter is less, calculates simple clear and definite, and the sequence at corresponding time point can be quickly generated in long period simulation process；
3rd, the working condition metastasis model of the methods of risk assessment generation of the 10kV power distribution network responsible consumers that the present invention is provided
It is simple clear, the failure behavior of co-variation power station redundancy Connection Mode can be described exactly, can be with long period simulation process
Macrocyclic state metastasis sequence is expeditiously formed, the demand of laboratory simulations and scene application is fully met.
Brief description of the drawings
The present invention is further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
Fig. 1 is：A kind of risk evaluation model sketch of 10kV power distribution networks responsible consumer in the embodiment of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawing in the embodiment of the present application, the technical scheme in the embodiment of the present application is carried out clear, complete
Site preparation is described.
The invention provides a kind of methods of risk assessment of 10kV power distribution networks responsible consumer, comprise the steps：
Step 1：Working condition type, failure-frequency and the repair time of 10kV power distribution networks are set；
The fault type of 10kV power distribution networks includes substation fault, main feeder failure and siding failure；Therefore work shape
Five kinds of working conditions that state type includes are：
Working condition one：Substation fault；
Working condition two：Transformer station, main feeder and siding are normal；
Working condition three：Transformer station is normal, main feeder is normal and siding failure；
Working condition four：Transformer station is normal, siding is normal and main feeder failure；
Working condition five：Transformer station is normal, main feeder failure and siding failure.
Failure-frequency includes main feeder failure-frequency λm, siding failure-frequency λbWith substation fault frequency lambdasub, failure
The unit of frequency is：Times/year.
Repair time includes main feeder repair time Tm, siding repair time TbWith transformer station's repair time Tsub, repair
The unit of time is：Hour.
Wherein, in the present embodiment in the case of substation fault, main feeder will not break down with siding；Work as main feeder
When being broken down with siding, main feeder is preferentially repaired；All elements including transformer station are all in the useful life phase, and it is former
Barrier defers to exponential distribution, i.e. failure-frequency for constant.
Step 2：Mould is shifted by working condition type, failure-frequency and repair time construction work state as shown in Figure 1
Type：Working condition metastasis model includes working condition and the transfer of unidirectional state of the 2-way state transfer built according to actual conditions
Working condition；
Working condition with 2-way state transfer includes：Working condition one and working condition two, working condition one and work
Make state three, working condition two and working condition three, working condition two and working condition four, working condition three and working condition
Five；
With unidirectional state transfer working condition be：Working condition four-way working condition five is unidirectionally shifted.Wherein,
The fault rate λ that working condition two is shifted to working condition one2→1=λsub, repair time T1→2=Tsub；
The fault rate λ that working condition two is shifted to working condition three2→3=λb, repair time T3→2=Tb；
The fault rate λ that working condition two is shifted to working condition four2→4=λsub, repair time T4→2=Tm；
The fault rate of the transfer of working condition three-dimensional working condition oneRepair time T1→3=Tsub；
The fault rate of the transfer of working condition three-dimensional working condition fiveRepair time T5→3=Tm；
The fault rate λ of the transfer of working condition four-way working condition five4→5=λb；
Wherein, in Fig. 1
Step 3：By obtaining transfer time point of the working condition to another working condition transition, work shape is determined
The state metastasis sequence of state；After macrocyclic state metastasis sequence is obtained, any operative state is determined according to the law of large numbers
Probability of happening is the duration of the working condition to account for the ratio value of total emulation cycle, and the working condition is in different year
Wave characteristic can also be obtained from state metastasis sequence, so as to carry out risk to responsible consumer by the probability of happening of working condition
Assessment, including：
①：Obtain working condition i respectively to the transfer time point of other working condition transition, and will transfer time point by small
To being ranked up greatly, so that it is determined that next working condition is the minimum working condition j of transfer time point, wherein transfer time pointI, j ∈ { 1,2,3,4,5 }, r are equally distributed random number between 0~1；
②：Obtain working condition j respectively to the transfer time point of other working condition transition, and will transfer time point by small
To being ranked up greatly, so that it is determined that next working condition is the minimum working condition k of transfer time point, wherein transfer time pointJ, k ∈ { 1,2,3,4,5 }, r are equally distributed random number between 0~1；
③：Obtain the N number of working condition after working condition k, N >=0 successively using the above method；
④：The state metastasis sequence of working condition i include carrying out successively the working condition i of transition transfer, working condition j,
Working condition k and working condition j carry out the N number of working condition after transition；
Working condition i is t to the transfer time of working condition ji→j, working condition j is to the transfer time of working condition kj
ti→j+tj→k, the transfer time that working condition k carries out the n-th working condition after transition is the transfer of preceding N-1 working condition
The sum at time point.
It is different according to working condition sequence in the state metastasis sequence that working condition metastasis model is obtained every time, but work
Meet the statistical law of working condition metastasis model as status switch.
Original operating state is working condition two in the present embodiment, then the state metastasis sequence of working condition two is：
①：State of the working condition two to the transition of working condition one is obtained according to the working condition metastasis model shown in Fig. 1
Transfer time point isWorking condition two is to the state transfer time point of the transition of working condition threeWorking condition two is to the state transfer time point of the transition of working condition four
Wherein, λ2→3＜ λ2→4＜ λ2→1, then next working condition that working condition two carries out transition is working condition three,
Transfer time point is t2→3；
②：The state of the transition of working condition three-dimensional working condition one is obtained according to the working condition metastasis model shown in Fig. 1
Transfer time point isThe state transfer time point of the transition of working condition three-dimensional working condition five is
Wherein, λ3→5＜ λ3→1, then next working condition that working condition three carries out transition is working condition five, transfer
Time point is t3→5；
③：To sum up, the state metastasis sequence of working condition two includes carrying out the working condition two of transition transfer, work successively
State three and working condition five；The wherein transfer time of working condition three is t=0+t2→3, working condition five transfer time be t
=t2→3+t3→5；The duration of working condition two is the transfer time point t=t of working condition three2→3, working condition three
Duration is the transfer time point t=t of working condition five3→5。
Finally it should be noted that：Described embodiment is only some embodiments of the present application, rather than whole realities
Apply example.Based on the embodiment in the application, those of ordinary skill in the art are obtained under the premise of creative work is not made
Every other embodiment, belong to the application protection scope.
Claims (4)
1. a kind of methods of risk assessment of 10kV power distribution networks responsible consumer, it is characterised in that methods described comprises the steps：
Step 1：Working condition type, failure-frequency and the repair time of the 10kV power distribution networks are set；
Step 2：Construction work state transition model；And
Step 3：By obtaining the transfer time point of working condition transition, the state metastasis sequence of the working condition is determined, from
And risk assessment is carried out to responsible consumer；
The fault type of 10kV power distribution networks includes substation fault, main feeder failure and siding failure；Work in the step 1
Making Status Type includes five kinds of working conditions；Working condition one is that substation fault, main feeder and siding are normal；Work shape
State two is that transformer station, main feeder and siding are normal；Working condition three is for transformer station is normal, main feeder is normal and siding event
Barrier；Working condition four is for transformer station is normal, siding is normal and main feeder failure；Working condition five is for transformer station is normal, main feed
Line failure and siding failure；
By working condition type, failure-frequency and repair time construction work state transition model：
Working condition with 2-way state transfer includes：Working condition one and working condition two, working condition one and work shape
State three, working condition two and working condition three, working condition two and working condition four, working condition three and working condition five；
With unidirectional state transfer working condition be：Working condition four-way working condition five is unidirectionally shifted；
The fault rate λ that working condition two is shifted to working condition one2→1=λsub, repair time T1→2=Tsub；
The fault rate λ that working condition two is shifted to working condition three2→3=λb, repair time T3→2=Tb；
The fault rate λ that working condition two is shifted to working condition four2→4=λsub, repair time T4→2=Tm；
The fault rate of the transfer of working condition three-dimensional working condition oneRepair time T1→3=Tsub；
The fault rate of the transfer of working condition three-dimensional working condition fiveRepair time T5→3=Tm；
The fault rate λ of the transfer of working condition four-way working condition five4→5=λb；
Failure-frequency includes main feeder failure-frequency λm, siding failure-frequency λbWith substation fault frequency lambdasub；The reparation
Time includes main feeder repair time Tm, siding repair time TbWith transformer station's repair time Tsub。
2. a kind of methods of risk assessment of 10kV power distribution networks responsible consumer as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that the step
Determine that the state metastasis sequence of working condition includes in rapid 3：
Obtain working condition i respectively to the transfer time point of other working condition transition, and by the transfer time point by it is small to
It is ranked up greatly, so that it is determined that next working condition is the minimum working condition j of transfer time point, wherein transfer time pointI, j ∈ { 1,2,3,4,5 }, r are equally distributed random number between 0~1；
The state metastasis sequence of the working condition i includes carrying out successively working condition i, working condition j and the work of transition transfer
Make the N number of working condition after state j is shifted, N >=0；Working condition j shifted after n-th working condition
Transfer time is the sum of the transfer time point of preceding N-1 working condition.
3. a kind of methods of risk assessment of 10kV power distribution networks responsible consumer as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that according to institute
Working condition sequence is different in stating the state metastasis sequence that working condition metastasis model is obtained every time；The working condition sequence
Meet the statistical law of the working condition metastasis model.
4. a kind of methods of risk assessment of 10kV power distribution networks responsible consumer as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that the step
In rapid 3 after macrocyclic state metastasis sequence is obtained, determine that the probability of happening of any operative state is institute according to the law of large numbers
The duration for stating working condition accounts for the ratio value of total emulation cycle, so that by the probability of happening of working condition to responsible consumer
Carry out risk assessment.
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