CN103530814B - The remote signalling amount simulation system of 500kV Regional Control Center - Google Patents
The remote signalling amount simulation system of 500kV Regional Control Center Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a kind of remote signalling amount simulation system of 500kV Regional Control Center, this system comprises modeling unit, input block, simulation estimate unit and output unit; Wherein modeling unit specifically comprises sample extraction subelement, statistical study subelement and model and sets up subelement; The present invention utilizes from the frequency distribution as remote signalling number of times in sample statistics each website unit interval of the remote signalling data of Regional Control Center record, and sets up remote signalling typical data model of all categories based on this; The remote signalling intensity of remote signalling typical data model to the Regional Control Center after new access website is utilized to estimate, thus realize the remote signalling amount simulation after Regional Control Center access website, there is provided with reference to for the active configuration dropping into prison dish personnel or instruct, thus make the active configuration of prison dish personnel more exactly with access website after actual state match.
Description
[technical field]
The present invention relates to a kind of management and control technology of transformer station, particularly a kind of remote signalling amount simulation system of 500kV Regional Control Center.
[background technology]
The setting up of Grid control center (be called for short control center, district) achieves the management mode of 500kV transformer station remote centralized control, unattended, few man on duty, significantly reduce operation management cost, improve Operation and Maintenance efficiency, therefore control pattern in district's is promoted rapidly and popularizes in China's power grid construction, and the schematic diagram of district's control pattern as shown in fig. 1.But along with the quick increase of 500kV website quantity, the website also corresponding increase that control center, district controls, website here can be that transformer station or string mend station.But must need to drop into more prison dish personnel while increasing website, after newly increasing website, prison dish workload has much, needing to increase how many prison dish personnel is all that needs are pre-prepd, but is merely able to rule of thumb situation at present or carries out adjustment according to the work of prison dish personnel " busy be not in a hurry " after dropping into prison dish personnel gradually configure.Obviously, these modes all can not more exactly with access website after actual state match.
[summary of the invention]
In view of this, the invention provides a kind of remote signalling amount simulation system of 500kV Regional Control Center, so that provide with reference to for the active configuration dropping into prison dish personnel or instruct, thus make the active configuration of prison dish personnel more exactly with access website after actual state match.
Concrete technical scheme is as follows:
A remote signalling amount simulation system for 500kV Regional Control Center, this system comprises: modeling unit, input block, simulation estimate unit and output unit; Wherein modeling unit specifically comprises sample extraction subelement, statistical study subelement and model and sets up subelement;
Described sample extraction subelement, for extracting remote signalling data in certain period as sample data in the remote signalling data from Regional Control Center record;
Described statistical study subelement, for adding up the frequency distribution of remote signalling number of times in each website unit interval based on described sample data;
Subelement set up by described model, for respectively for website of all categories, the frequency distribution of remote signalling number of times in website unit interval each in this classification synthesized, to set up such other remote signalling typical data model;
Described input block, for obtaining classification and the quantity of the website to be accessed of the described Regional Control Center of user's input;
Described simulation estimate unit, for the remote signalling typical data model utilizing the classification of described website to be accessed corresponding, estimate the remote signalling intensity of the described website rear region control center to be accessed of access, the quantity of wherein said remote signalling typical data model is corresponding with the quantity of website to be accessed;
Described output unit, for exporting the estimation result of described simulation estimate unit.
According to the present invention one preferred implementation, described model is set up the described synthesis that subelement carries out and is comprised: for each remote signalling number of times, occur that the frequency of this remote signalling number of times asks arithmetic average, root mean square average, geometrical mean, logarithmic mean value or weighted mean value by each website unit interval.
According to the present invention one preferred implementation, described modeling unit also comprises: independence analyzes subelement, independence analysis is carried out in frequency distribution for adding up remote signalling number of times in each website unit interval of obtaining to described statistical study subelement, the website with independence is set up subelement for described model and sets up remote signalling typical data model.
According to the present invention one preferred implementation, described independence analyzes subelement, also for being a website by not separate site groups cooperation, re-starts independence analysis, until all websites are all separate; Or,
If there is not separate website, then change the unit interval granularity that described statistical study subelement adopts, re-start independence analysis, until all websites are all separate.
According to the present invention one preferred implementation, described independence analyzes subelement when carrying out independence and analyzing, specifically for calculating the Combined Frequency distribution of remote signalling number of times in two website unit interval, the Combined Frequency calculated distribution is distributed with actual frequency and contrasts, if error presetting in the first error range, then thinks that two websites are separate.
According to the present invention one preferred implementation, described modeling unit also comprises: model testing subelement, for calculating Combined Frequency distribution respectively for remote signalling typical data model of all categories, the Combined Frequency calculated distribution is compared with actual count situation, if error is in the second error range preset, then determine that such other remote signalling typical data model is effective, otherwise determine that such other remote signalling data model is invalid.
According to the present invention one preferred implementation, described simulation estimate unit, the Combined Frequency distribution of the remote signalling number of times of the website unit interval of Regional Control Center has been accessed specifically for statistics, the remote signalling typical data model of classification corresponding to website to be accessed is distributed with the described Combined Frequency having accessed the remote signalling number of times of the website unit interval of Regional Control Center synthesize as the frequency distribution of the remote signalling number of times of website to be accessed within the unit interval, obtains the remote signalling intensity accessing described website rear region control center to be accessed.
According to the present invention one preferred implementation, described classification comprises transformer station and string mends station.
As can be seen from the above technical solutions, the present invention can realize the remote signalling amount simulation after to district's control central access station point, there is provided with reference to for the active configuration dropping into prison dish personnel or instruct, thus make the active configuration of prison dish personnel more exactly with access website after actual state match.
[accompanying drawing explanation]
The schematic diagram of Tu1Wei district control pattern;
The structural representation of the remote signalling amount simulation system of the 500kV Regional Control Center that Fig. 2 provides for the embodiment of the present invention.
[embodiment]
In order to make the object, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearly, describe the present invention below in conjunction with the drawings and specific embodiments.
The structural representation of the remote signalling amount simulation system of the 500kV Regional Control Center provided for the embodiment of the present invention in Fig. 2, control center, district can be arranged in this system, mainly comprise: modeling unit 00, input block 10, simulation estimate unit 20 and output unit 30.
Wherein modeling unit 00 primary responsibility sets up remote signalling typical data model, this remote signalling typical data model obtains after carrying out statistical study based on existing history remote signalling data, particularly, this modeling unit 00 can comprise sample extraction subelement 01, statistical study subelement 02 and model and set up subelement 03, can further include model testing subelement 04.
Usually have automation equipment for reporting and submitting the signal of reflection website ruuning situation, fault or accident to control center, district at each website, these signals are called remote signalling.Control center, district is to carrying out record to these remote signalling datas, comprise the information such as time, website that remote signalling occurs, and the remote signalling at the workload of prison dish personnel and control center, district is closely related (although prison dish personnel are also responsible for other tasks such as remote control, but with regard to workload, remote signalling account for the overwhelming majority), the remote signalling typical data model therefore set up in the embodiment of the present invention is exactly the history remote signalling data based on district's control central record.Namely sample extraction subelement 01 extracts remote signalling data in certain period as sample data from the remote signalling data of district's control central record.
Here " certain period " can be 1 year, also can be one month or some months, also can be certain number of days etc., suppose from the history remote signalling data of district's control central record in the present embodiment, extract the remote signalling data of 2011.1.1 ~ 2011.12.31, namely the remote signalling data of the whole year in 2011 is as sample data.
After extracting above-mentioned sample data, statistical study subelement 02 adds up the frequency distribution of remote signalling number of times in each website unit interval based on this sample data, namely occurs the frequency of each remote signalling number of times in each website unit interval.
For the work of prison dish, on ordinary meaning there is gap in the average remote signalling number of times of statistical unit time and the actual state of prison dish work, accurately can not reflect the intensity of actual prison dish work.Give an example, generation per hour in 1 year 8760 hours 10 remote signalling and concentrated generation 100 remote signalling every 10 hours, working strength is completely different, supposes to there occurs 300 remote signalling within one minute, just needs prison dish personnel within the limited time, process this 300 remote signalling.For prison dish personnel, in unit time period of comparing, how many times remote signalling occurs, how the time period that different remote signalling number of times occurs in a period of supervision distributes and has more meaning, and in fact this is exactly a frequency distribution about remote signalling number of times in the unit interval.
Specifically can adopt at this frequency occurring each remote signalling number of times in each website unit interval, therefore, in unit time, the frequency distribution of remote signalling number of times is expressed as follows:
f(n)＝F（1）
Wherein n is the remote signalling number of times in the unit interval, and F is frequency.
Such as the implication of f (2)=300 is: have in 1 measurement period in 300 unit interval and there occurs twice remote signalling.
The above-mentioned unit interval can be hour, also can be minute, also can be the other times length of setting.Suppose using minute as the unit interval, year is as measurement period, the statistics that in table 1 is each website remote signalling to certain control center, district of access minute, the frequency of remote signalling number of times is carried out, every list shows that the frequency that remote signalling number of times in corresponding minute occurs, the list that name is called " MAX " show remote signalling number of times in maximum minute that each website occurs.The unit of interior remote signalling number of times so per minute is " beat/min ", and the unit of frequency is " times/year ".
Table 1
Because different classes of website has different features, therefore also there is difference in its frequency distribution sending remote signalling, therefore model is set up subelement 03 and is utilized the frequency distribution of remote signalling number of times in each website unit interval to set up the remote signalling typical data model of each website classification, namely remote signalling typical data model reflects the frequency distribution of website remote signalling number of times within the unit interval of a classification, respectively for website of all categories, the frequency distribution of remote signalling number of times in website unit interval each in this classification can be synthesized.The mode of synthesis can be: for each remote signalling number of times, occur that the frequency of this remote signalling number of times asks arithmetic average, root mean square average, geometrical mean, logarithmic mean value or weighted mean value etc. by each website unit interval.
At this, can take occurring in the different classes of website unit interval that the frequency of each remote signalling number of times asks arithmetic average to simplify to calculate, first each website is classified, simple sorting technique is divided into transformer station and string to mend station exactly, also can classify according to area, or carry out classifying etc. according to the quantity at inlet wire, outlet, interval.
Mend station at this to be divided into transformer station and string, calculate the average frequency value occurring each remote signalling number of times in transformer station's unit interval respectively, and string mends the average frequency value occurring each remote signalling number of times in the unit interval of station.In one minute, occur a remote signalling, all transformer stations were occurred in one minute the number of times of a remote signalling is averaging, the part by transformer station corresponding in first row numeral in table 1 is averaging:
(1634+1787+2472+2430+2240+2058+3711+2025+2346+3244+2627)/11=2415.8182
Be averaging respectively each remote signalling number of times occurred in a minute, the remote signalling teledata model that the remote signalling typical data model of the final transformer station set up and string mend station is as shown in table 2.
Table 2
Visible, the remote signalling typical data model of transformer station reflects the frequency distribution of transformer station's remote signalling number of times within the unit interval, and the remote signalling typical data model that string mends station reflects the frequency distribution that string benefit stands in remote signalling number of times in the unit interval.
Due to when applying remote signalling typical data model, based on theory be the Combined Frequency distribution of multiple website be synthesized by the independent frequency distribution of each website, therefore, in order to more accurate, in the unit interval preferably ensureing each website, the frequency distribution of remote signalling number of times is separate, and namely value is by the impact of other websites.Preferably, in modeling unit 00, can further include independence analyze subelement 05, independence analysis is carried out in frequency distribution for adding up remote signalling number of times in each website unit interval of obtaining to statistical study subelement 02, the website with independence is set up subelement 03 for model and sets up remote signalling typical data model.For not independently website, can adopt but be not limited to following two kinds of mode process:
First kind of way, inciting somebody to action not independently site groups cooperation is a website, re-starts independence analysis, until all websites are all separate.
The second way, changes the unit interval granularity that system statistical study subelement 02 adopts, then re-starts independence analysis, until all websites are all separate.Under normal circumstances, the granularity of the unit interval that statistical study subelement 02 adopts is less, independence between the website obtained is better, and such as, the independence between the website that minute granularity obtains is much better than the independence between website that hour granularity obtains.Therefore the original unit interval adopted be hour, if existence not independently website, then the unit interval can be changed to minute, if still there is not independently website, then the unit interval can be changed to second, etc.
In mathematical meaning, independence is defined as: if P (AB)=P (A) P (B), then think that two event A and B are independent.The Combined Frequency of remote signalling number of times in the unit interval of calculating two websites can be adopted in embodiments of the present invention to distribute, the Combined Frequency calculated distribution being distributed with actual frequency and contrasts, if error is presetting in the first error range, thinking that two websites are separate.Maximum error can being adopted whether presetting the mode in the first error range at this, other modes can certainly be adopted.Here the first error range can adopt empirical value, can adopt relative error in form, and such as ± 15% also can adopt absolute error, such as 10 times.
Give an example, the Combined Frequency f of S1 and S2 Liang Ge transformer station
close(n) be:
Wherein, f
close(n) for S1 and S2 remote signalling number of times within the unit interval be the Combined Frequency of n.
F
s1(i) for transformer station S1 remote signalling number of times within the unit interval be the frequency of i.
F
s2(n-i) for transformer station S2 remote signalling number of times within the unit interval is the frequency of n-i.
Such as, according to the mode of above-mentioned formula (2), D2, I2 transformer station in his-and-hers watches 1 carries out the calculating of Combined Frequency, and calculated value and actual count value is compared respectively, and obtain error, result of calculation is as shown in table 3.
Table 3
As can be seen from Table 3, in maximum error appears at minute when 13 remote signalling, for-14.33%, suppose that the first error range preset is ± 15%, then illustrate that above-mentioned D2 and I2 transformer station is separate.
Set up after subelement 03 completes the foundation of remote signalling typical data model at model, model testing subelement 04 can be tested to remote signalling typical data model.
The concrete mode of inspection can be: calculate Combined Frequency distribution respectively for remote signalling typical data model of all categories, the Combined Frequency calculated distribution is compared with actual count situation, if error (can adopt at this and judge the mode of maximum error in the second error range preset in the second error range preset, other modes can certainly be adopted), then determine that such other remote signalling typical data model is effective; Otherwise determine that such other remote signalling typical data model is invalid.If invalid, then abandon this remote signalling typical data model.Here the second error range can adopt empirical value equally, can adopt relative error equally in form, and such as ± 10% also can adopt absolute error, such as 10 times.
Such as, calculate 11 transformer station's remote signalling typical data models respectively for the Combined Frequency of remote signalling number of times each in the unit interval, calculated value and actual count value are compared, calculated value and actual count value as shown in table 4, maximum error is-6.24%, suppose that the second error range is ± 10%, then determine that the remote signalling typical data model of transformer station is effective.
Calculate the Combined Frequency that 3 strings mend station remote signalling typical data model, calculated value and actual count value are compared, calculated value and actual count value as shown in table 5, maximum error is 0.37, in the second error range, determine that string mends the remote signalling typical data model of standing effective.
Table 4
Table 5
Above-mentioned remote signalling typical data model just can utilize this model to carry out the simulation of remote signalling intensity after setting up.It should be noted that, above-mentioned remote signalling typical data model also can utilize new sample data to upgrade.
Input block 10 can exist with the form of UI, such as, be can the capable instrument of input command, or can provide the instrument of data in appointed function module, or touch-screen, etc.When control center, district needs to access new website, these new websites are exactly website to be accessed, this can by the embodiment of the present invention in the simulation system that provides remote signalling amount is simulated, user can provide website classification and the website quantity of the website to be accessed at this control center, district to input block 10 by UI, input block 10 gets these information and is supplied to simulation estimate unit 20 and carries out simulation estimate.
The simulation estimate that simulation estimate unit 20 carries out is exactly: utilize remote signalling typical data model to determine to access the remote signalling intensity at control center, described website back zone to be accessed, mode is particularly: the website adding up access area control center distributes in the Combined Frequency of the remote signalling number of times of unit interval, the remote signalling typical data model of classification corresponding to website to be accessed to be distributed in the Combined Frequency of the remote signalling number of times of unit interval as the frequency distribution of the remote signalling number of times of website to be accessed within the unit interval and the website at access area control center and synthesizes, obtain the remote signalling intensity accessing control center, described website back zone to be accessed.
Give an example, suppose to have 11 transformer stations and control center, access area, 3 string benefit stations at present, plan accesses 6 transformer stations again and 4 strings mend station, because the website at access area control center exists remote signalling data, therefore add up existing remote signalling data can obtain the website at access area control center minute in the Combined Frequency distribution of remote signalling number of times.For website to be accessed, there is no statistics, this just utilize the remote signalling typical data model of transformer station as transformer station to be accessed minute in the frequency distribution of remote signalling number of times, the remote signalling typical data model utilizing string to mend station as string to be accessed mend station minute in the frequency distribution of remote signalling number of times, that is, by 6 transformer station's remote signalling typical data models, 4 strings mend the website at the control center, access area of station remote signalling typical data models and statistics minute in the Combined Frequency distribution of remote signalling number of times carry out the synthesis of stochastic variable, finally obtain the Combined Frequency distribution at 17 transformer stations and 7 string benefit stations, the distribution of this Combined Frequency embodies the remote signalling intensity at access control center, website back zone to be accessed.Calculated case can be as shown in table 6.
Table 6
Output unit 30 is responsible for the estimation result of simulation estimate unit 20 to export, for reference.The estimation result of simulation estimate unit 20 can export in modes such as data, form, curve or diagrams by above-mentioned output unit 30.
Be can clearly be seen that by the estimation result in table 6, the workload at control center, back zone, access full station is significantly increased, it is 100% ~ 300% that remote signalling number of times for majority improves ratio, peak value is 1003%, valley is 46%, reference and guidance can be provided for the active configuration of prison dish personnel with this, thus make the active configuration of prison dish personnel more exactly with access website after actual state match.
In several embodiment provided by the present invention, should be understood that, disclosed system can realize by another way.Such as, system embodiment described above is only schematic, and such as, the division of described unit, is only a kind of logic function and divides, and actual can have other dividing mode when realizing.
The described unit illustrated as separating component or can may not be and physically separates, and the parts as unit display can be or may not be physical location, namely can be positioned at a place, or also can be distributed in multiple network element.Some or all of unit wherein can be selected according to the actual needs to realize the object of the present embodiment scheme.
In addition, each functional unit in each embodiment of the present invention can be integrated in a processing unit, also can be that the independent physics of unit exists, also can two or more unit in a unit integrated.Above-mentioned integrated unit both can adopt the form of hardware to realize, and the form that hardware also can be adopted to add SFU software functional unit realizes.
The above-mentioned integrated unit realized with the form of SFU software functional unit, can be stored in a computer read/write memory medium.Above-mentioned SFU software functional unit is stored in a storage medium, comprising some instructions in order to make a computer equipment (can be personal computer, server, or the network equipment etc.) or processor (processor) perform the part steps of method described in each embodiment of the present invention.And aforesaid storage medium comprises: USB flash disk, portable hard drive, ROM (read-only memory) (Read-OnlyMemory, ROM), random access memory (RandomAccessMemory, RAM), magnetic disc or CD etc. various can be program code stored medium.
The foregoing is only preferred embodiment of the present invention, not in order to limit the present invention, within the spirit and principles in the present invention all, any amendment made, equivalent replacement, improvement etc., all should be included within the scope of protection of the invention.
Claims (7)
1. a remote signalling amount simulation system for 500kV Regional Control Center, it is characterized in that, this system comprises: modeling unit, input block, simulation estimate unit and output unit; Wherein modeling unit specifically comprises sample extraction subelement, statistical study subelement and model and sets up subelement;
Described sample extraction subelement, for extracting remote signalling data in certain period as sample data in the remote signalling data from Regional Control Center record;
Described statistical study subelement, for adding up the frequency distribution of remote signalling number of times in each website unit interval based on described sample data;
Subelement set up by described model, for respectively for website of all categories, the frequency distribution of remote signalling number of times in website unit interval each in this classification is synthesized, to set up such other remote signalling typical data model, described synthesis comprises: for each remote signalling number of times, occurs that the frequency of this remote signalling number of times is averaged by each website unit interval;
Described input block, for obtaining classification and the quantity of the website to be accessed of the described Regional Control Center of user's input;
Described simulation estimate unit, for the remote signalling typical data model utilizing the classification of described website to be accessed corresponding, estimate the remote signalling intensity of the described website rear region control center to be accessed of access, the quantity of wherein said remote signalling typical data model is corresponding with the quantity of website to be accessed; Described estimation comprises: statistics has accessed the Combined Frequency distribution of the remote signalling number of times of the website unit interval of Regional Control Center, the remote signalling typical data model of classification corresponding to website to be accessed is distributed with the described Combined Frequency having accessed the remote signalling number of times of the website unit interval of Regional Control Center synthesize as the frequency distribution of the remote signalling number of times of website to be accessed within the unit interval, obtains the remote signalling intensity accessing described website rear region control center to be accessed;
Described output unit, for exporting the estimation result of described simulation estimate unit.
2. system according to claim 1, is characterized in that, described model set up subelement carry out described in average and comprise: ask arithmetic average, root mean square average, geometrical mean, logarithmic mean value or weighted mean value.
3. system according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described modeling unit also comprises: independence analyzes subelement, independence analysis is carried out in frequency distribution for adding up remote signalling number of times in each website unit interval of obtaining to described statistical study subelement, the website with independence is set up subelement for described model and sets up remote signalling typical data model.
4. system according to claim 3, is characterized in that, described independence analyzes subelement, also for being a website by not separate site groups cooperation, re-starts independence analysis, until all websites are all separate; Or,
If there is not separate website, then change the unit interval granularity that described statistical study subelement adopts, re-start independence analysis, until all websites are all separate.
5. system according to claim 3, it is characterized in that, described independence analyzes subelement when carrying out independence and analyzing, specifically for calculating the Combined Frequency distribution of remote signalling number of times in two website unit interval, the Combined Frequency calculated distribution is distributed with actual frequency and contrasts, if error presetting in the first error range, then thinks that two websites are separate.
6. system according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described modeling unit also comprises: model testing subelement, for calculating Combined Frequency distribution respectively for remote signalling typical data model of all categories, the Combined Frequency calculated distribution is compared with actual count situation, if error in the second error range preset, is then determined that such other remote signalling typical data model is effective, otherwise is determined that such other remote signalling data model is invalid.
7. the system according to claim 1,2 or 6, is characterized in that, described classification comprises transformer station and string mends station.
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