CN103500368A - Step water consumption predicating method for step water price - Google Patents
Step water consumption predicating method for step water price Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN103500368A CN103500368A CN201310467222.XA CN201310467222A CN103500368A CN 103500368 A CN103500368 A CN 103500368A CN 201310467222 A CN201310467222 A CN 201310467222A CN 103500368 A CN103500368 A CN 103500368A
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- water consumption
- ladder
- water
- resident
- consumption
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Granted
Links
Landscapes
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
Abstract
The invention relates to a step water consumption predicating method for step water price. The method comprises the following steps that 1, a predicating method for the first-step water consumption is shown as (1); 2, a predicting method for the second-step water consumption is shown as (2); 3, a predicating method for the third-step or higher-step water consumption is shown as (4); 4, the first step, the second step and the third step are subjected to solving, and the step water consumptions Q<i, 1>, Q<i, 2> and Q<i, n> of the ith month are obtained, and i is taken from integers from 1 to 12. The invention provides the a step water consumption predicating method for step water price, which has the advantages that the function of subdividing single step water consumption influence factors is realized, and the calculation is simplified.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of Forecasting Methodology of water consumption.
Background technology
Along with social development, the pricing mode of urbanite water consumption amount also has a great development.Stepped water pricing is a kind of pricing method of tap water being carried out to classification metering and over-quota progression price markup.Research in recent years shows: stepped water pricing can be given full play to its market forces at aspects such as Water Resources Allocation, water demand adjustings, thereby promotes using water wisely, improves water use efficiency.
In addition, how reasonable development water resource, the sustainable development of supporting people's lives has become the key of urban development.By the ladder water consumption after stepped water pricing is implemented, predicted, Running-water Company is energy rational management water just, planning water resources development plan.Simultaneously, the water-saving effect that stepped water pricing brings is also more directly perceived.Therefore, the Forecasting Methodology of ladder water consumption is to urban sustainable development with push forward stepped water pricing comprehensively and have great importance.
Present stage, many water consumption Forecasting Methodologies mainly contained time series analysis method, multiple linear regression method, grey method, water consumption quota method.In addition, the disclosed method of mentioning about the patent of water consumption Forecasting Methodology aspect generally is optimized existing Forecasting Methodology at present.For example in patent (CN101916335's), adopt time series-exponential smoothing model to be predicted Urban Water Demand; In patent (CN101308455's), adopt new breath to fill vacancies in the proper order gray model and needed the water prediction, traditional gray model is optimized; When patent (CN103093284's) employing is historical, trend data is predicted the water requirement of freshwater supply to sea island system.In document, published correlation technique also has a lot.Water generating) etc. such as Xu Gang, (application (2008) of Partial Least-Squares Regression Model in urban water demand: the employing Partial Least-Squares Regression Model is predicted water requirement; (domestic consumption combination forecasting and the application thereof (2013): the HYDROELECTRIC ENERGY science) adopt built-up pattern to be predicted water requirement such as Tang Ting; Han Yan etc. (adopt genetic optimization MGM(1, n, q) model and the application (2008) in town water: Journal of System Simulation) adopt genetic optimization MGM(1, n, q) model carries out Water Demand Prediction; (the forecast model (2013) of Chinese future water demand amount: Hubei Normal University's journal) adopt polynomial regression model to be predicted industry, agricultural water, adopt gray model to be predicted domestic water such as Cheng Xiaosheng.
But existing water consumption Forecasting Methodology lacks dirigibility after stepped water pricing is implemented, and can not take into account the influence factor of each ladder to water consumption, factors such as resident's water rate ability to bear, stepped water pricing.In addition, existing method also has the shortcoming that computation complexity is high, causes it to be difficult to be applied to actual ladder water consumption prediction.
Summary of the invention
Predict and the high deficiency of computation complexity for the water consumption that can't be applied under the stepped water pricing background that overcomes existing water consumption Forecasting Methodology, the present invention proposes a kind of water consumption of the ladder for stepped water pricing Forecasting Methodology that there is the single ladder water consumption influence factor function of segmentation, simplifies calculating.
The technical solution adopted for the present invention to solve the technical problems is:
A kind of water consumption of the ladder for stepped water pricing Forecasting Methodology, described ladder water consumption comprises the first ladder water consumption, the second ladder water consumption and the 3rd and above ladder water consumption, the basic water consumption that described the first ladder water consumption is the resident, described the second ladder water consumption is for improving the quality of life water consumption, the described the 3rd and above ladder water consumption be luxurious water consumption; Described Forecasting Methodology comprises the steps:
Step 1: the Forecasting Methodology of the first ladder water consumption is as shown in (1):
Q
i,1＝aQ
i-1,1 2+bQ
i-1,1+c （1）
In described formula (1), Q
i, 1be i month the first ladder water consumption, i gets the integer of 1-12; Q
i-1,1be i-1 month the first ladder water consumption; A, b, c is three coefficients, because the first ladder water consumption fluctuation is steady, should select less a, b, the c value, its span is [0.05,0.2];
Step 2: the Forecasting Methodology of the second ladder water consumption is as shown in (2):
Q
i,2＝αP
2+βR
2 （2）
Simultaneously, using resident's ability to bear as the constraint condition of the second ladder water consumption, its expression formula is as shown in (3):
αP
2Q
i-1,2-βω
2R
2≤0 （3）
Q in described (2) formula
i, 2be i month the second ladder water consumption, i gets the integer of 1-12; P
2it is the second stepped water pricing; R
2it is the second ladder resident's average income; α and β are P
2and R
2weighing factor, retrained by (3) formula; Q in described (3) formula
i-1,2be i-1 month the second ladder water consumption; ω
2be the second ladder resident's Water expenditure and the ratio of its average income;
Step 3: the 3rd and the Forecasting Methodology of above ladder water consumption as shown in (4):
lnQ
i,n＝ΑlnP
n+ΒlnR
n （4）
Simultaneously, using resident's ability to bear as the 3rd and the constraint condition of above ladder water consumption, expression formula is as shown in (5):
ΑP
nQ
i-1,n-Βω
nR
n≤0 （5）
Q in described (4) formula
i,nbe i month n ladder water consumption, n>=3 wherein, i gets the integer of 1-12; P
nit is the n stepped water pricing; R
nit is n ladder resident's average income; A is price elastic coefficient; B is income elasticity coefficient; Q in described (5) formula
i-1, nbe i-1 month n ladder water consumption; ω
nbe n ladder resident's Water expenditure and the ratio of its average income;
Wherein, Q
i-1,1, Q
i-1,2, Q
i-1, n, P
2, P
n, R
2, R
nfor known quantity; A, b, c, α, β, A, B is constant; Q
i, 1, Q
i, 2, Q
i,nfor amount to be asked;
Step 4: step 1～step 3 is solved, obtain the ladder water consumption Q of i month
i, 1, Q
i, 2, Q
i,n, i gets the integer of 1-12.
Further, in described step 4, solve use for Matlab numerical evaluation software.Certainly, can be also other numerical evaluation software.
Technical conceive of the present invention is: can't flexible Application predict and the high deficiency of computation complexity in the ladder water consumption for solving existing water consumption Forecasting Methodology, the present invention proposes a kind of ladder water consumption Forecasting Methodology with the single ladder water consumption influence factor function of segmentation.The method, for the characteristics of each ladder, takes into full account its different influence factor, and each ladder is all proposed to a kind of Forecasting Methodology that is applicable to these ladder water consumption characteristics.Utilize this method, water supply department can calculate the water consumption of each ladder, the convenient scheduling of supplying water.In addition, utilize this method, the water-saving effect that stepped water pricing brings also can therefrom reflect, thereby has advanced the development in an all-round way of stepped water pricing.
Beneficial effect of the present invention is mainly manifested in: (1) the present invention has proposed to meet the water consumption Forecasting Methodology of these ladder water consumption characteristics to each ladder, has fully demonstrated the present invention and has been applied to actual dirigibility.(2) the present invention has taken into full account the important objective factor of the social mental factors of change of the water habits brought by resident's ability to bear and stepped water pricing and resident's average income in the water consumption forecasting process.(3) calculation procedure of the present invention is simple, and computation complexity is low, is applicable to actual application.
Embodiment
The method for the ladder water consumption prediction after stepped water pricing enforcement below the present invention proposed is described further, and provides the embodiment of three stepped water pricings.
A kind of water consumption of the ladder for stepped water pricing Forecasting Methodology, described ladder water consumption comprises the first ladder water consumption, the second ladder water consumption and the 3rd and above ladder water consumption, the basic water consumption that described the first ladder water consumption is the resident, described the second ladder water consumption is for improving the quality of life water consumption, the described the 3rd and above ladder water consumption be luxurious water consumption; Described Forecasting Methodology comprises the steps:
Step 1: determine the first ladder water consumption: Q
i, 1=aQ
i-1,1 2+ bQ
i-1,1+ c, a, b, c ∈ [0.05,0.2].Be the first ladder water consumption of known previous month, the first of that month ladder water consumption just can obtain by above-mentioned formula.
Step 2: determine the second ladder water consumption: Q
i, 2=α P
2+ β R
2.Relevant social psychology research shows: work as ω
iwhile being 1%, the resident generally can accept Water expenditure; ω
iwhile being 2%, the resident starts to pay close attention to water consumption; ω
iwhile being 2.5%, the resident starts to note water saving; ω
iwhile being 5%, the resident starts conscientiously to economize on water; ω
iwhile being 10%, the resident starts to note the recycling of water.Under the second ladder, the resident is subject to the impact of stepped water pricing, considers the ability to bear of self, and water habits changes, water consumption generation respective change.Therefore, using resident's ability to bear as constraint condition, expression formula is as follows: α P
2q
i-1,2-β ω
2r
2≤ 0.The second ladder water consumption is:
Q
i,2＝αP
2+βR
2
S.t.αP
2Q
i-1,2-βω
2R
2≤0 (6)
Step 3: determine the 3rd and above ladder water consumption: lnQ
i,n=Α lnP
n+ Β lnR
n.Adopt the double-log function to obtain Q
i,n, consider the impact that water consumption that resident's ability to bear is brought changes, using it as constraint condition: Α P simultaneously
nq
i-1, n-Β ω
nr
n≤ 0.The 3rd and above ladder water consumption be:
lnQ
i,n＝ΑlnP
n+ΒlnR
n
S.t.ΑP
nQ
i-1,n-Βω
nR
n≤0 (7)
Step 4: utilize Matlab numerical evaluation software to be solved step 1～tri-, obtain the ladder water consumption Q of i month
i, 1, Q
i, 2, Q
i,n, i gets the integer of 1-12.
The step number of this example stepped water pricing is set to three grades.The first order is resident's basic living water consumption Q
1, the second level is for improving quality of life water consumption Q
2, the third level is luxurious water consumption Q
3.
Utilize described step 1, get a=0.05, b=0.10, c=0.15.The first ladder water consumption that this example obtains is:
Q
i,1＝0.05Q
i-1,1 2+0.1Q
i-1,1+0.15 （8）
Utilize described step 2, and the stepped water pricing shown in the resident's average income shown in reference table 1 and table 2.Get ω
2=0.02, the resident starts to pay close attention to water consumption; Get R
2=31498.22; Get P
2=7.4.
The on-site resident's average income of table 1 application example level
| Each ladder resident | Low-income earner's (20%) | Middle-income people's (60%) | People with high income's (20%) |
| Disposable income (unit) | 14397.32 | 31498.22 | 69681.54 |
The on-site stepped water pricing of table 2 application example
| Step number N | N=1 | N=2 | N=3 |
| Water price (unit/t) | 3.7 | 7.4 | 18.5 |
Thus, the second ladder water consumption that this example obtains is:
Q
i,2＝7.4α+31498.22β
S.t.7.4Q
i-1,2α-629.96β≤0 (9)
Utilize described step 3, and the resident's average income shown in reference table 1.Get ω
3=0.03, the resident starts to note using water wisely; Get R
3=69681.54; Get P
3=18.5.Thus, the 3rd ladder water consumption that this example obtains is:
lnQ
i,3＝2.92A+11.15B
S.t.18.5Q
i-1,3A-2090.45B≤0 (10)
Utilize described step 4, solved by Matlab software programming solution procedure one～tri-, obtain the ladder water consumption Q of i month
i, 1, Q
i, 2, Q
i,n, i gets the integer of 1-12.
Finally will be illustrated: the described content of this example is only that the present invention is not restricted to the described embodiments to the enumerating of the way of realization of inventive concept.What in above-described embodiment and instructions, describe is principle of the present invention, and protection scope of the present invention also reaches conceives the equivalent technologies means that can expect according to the present invention in those skilled in the art.
Claims (2)
1. the water consumption of the ladder for a stepped water pricing Forecasting Methodology, described ladder water consumption comprises the first ladder water consumption, the second ladder water consumption and the 3rd and above ladder water consumption, the basic water consumption that described the first ladder water consumption is the resident, described the second ladder water consumption is for improving the quality of life water consumption, the described the 3rd and above ladder water consumption be luxurious water consumption; It is characterized in that: described Forecasting Methodology comprises the steps:
Step 1: the Forecasting Methodology of the first ladder water consumption is as shown in (1):
Q
i,1＝aQ
i-1,1 2+bQ
i-1,1+c （1）
In described formula (1), Q
i, 1be i month the first ladder water consumption, i gets the integer of 1-12; Q
i-1,1be i-1 month the first ladder water consumption; A, b, c is three coefficients, because the first ladder water consumption fluctuation is steady, should select less a, b, the c value, its span is [0.05,0.2];
Step 2: the Forecasting Methodology of the second ladder water consumption is as shown in (2):
Q
i,2＝αP
2+βR
2 （2）
Simultaneously, using resident's ability to bear as the constraint condition of the second ladder water consumption, its expression formula is as shown in (3):
αP
2Q
i-1,2-βω
2R
2≤0 （3）
Q in described (2) formula
i, 2be i month the second ladder water consumption, i gets the integer of 1-12; P
2it is the second stepped water pricing; R
2it is the second ladder resident's average income; α and β are P
2and R
2weighing factor, retrained by (3) formula; Q in described (3) formula
i-1,2be i-1 month the second ladder water consumption; ω
2be the second ladder resident's Water expenditure and the ratio of its average income;
Step 3: the 3rd and the Forecasting Methodology of above ladder water consumption as shown in (4):
lnQ
i,n＝ΑlnP
n+ΒlnR
n （4）
Simultaneously, using resident's ability to bear as the 3rd and the constraint condition of above ladder water consumption, expression formula is as shown in (5):
ΑP
nQ
i-1,n-Βω
nR
n≤0 （5）
Q in described (4) formula
i,nbe i month n ladder water consumption, n>=3 wherein, i gets the integer of 1-12; P
nit is the n stepped water pricing; R
nit is n ladder resident's average income; A is price elastic coefficient; B is income elasticity coefficient; Q in described (5) formula
i-1, nbe i-1 month n ladder water consumption; ω
nbe n ladder resident's Water expenditure and the ratio of its average income;
Wherein, Q
i-1,1, Q
i-1,2, Q
i-1, n, P
2, P
n, R
2, R
nfor known quantity; A, b, c, α, β, A, B is constant; Q
i, 1, Q
i, 2, Q
i,nfor amount to be asked;
Step 4: step 1～step 3 is solved, obtain the ladder water consumption Q of i month
i, 1, Q
i, 2, Q
i,n, i gets the integer of 1-12.
2. the water consumption of the ladder for stepped water pricing Forecasting Methodology as claimed in claim 1 is characterized in that: in described step 4, solving what use is Matlab numerical evaluation software.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201310467222.XA CN103500368B (en) | 2013-10-09 | 2013-10-09 | Step water consumption predicating method for step water price |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201310467222.XA CN103500368B (en) | 2013-10-09 | 2013-10-09 | Step water consumption predicating method for step water price |
Publications (2)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN103500368A true CN103500368A (en) | 2014-01-08 |
| CN103500368B CN103500368B (en) | 2017-01-11 |
Family
ID=49865574
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201310467222.XA Active CN103500368B (en) | 2013-10-09 | 2013-10-09 | Step water consumption predicating method for step water price |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN103500368B (en) |
Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN114035619A (en) * | 2021-11-15 | 2022-02-11 | 圆藏(上海)科技有限公司 | Household water control method and system |
Citations (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN101308455A (en) * | 2008-07-15 | 2008-11-19 | 沈阳建筑大学 | New information adding grey model water demand predication method |
| CN101916335A (en) * | 2010-08-19 | 2010-12-15 | 河北农业大学 | Prediction method of city water-requirement time series-exponent smoothing model |
| JP2011170807A (en) * | 2010-02-22 | 2011-09-01 | Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc:The | System and method for support of operation in water storage facility, and program |
| WO2012036633A1 (en) * | 2010-09-14 | 2012-03-22 | Amitsur Preis | System and method for water distribution modelling |
-
2013
- 2013-10-09 CN CN201310467222.XA patent/CN103500368B/en active Active
Patent Citations (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN101308455A (en) * | 2008-07-15 | 2008-11-19 | 沈阳建筑大学 | New information adding grey model water demand predication method |
| JP2011170807A (en) * | 2010-02-22 | 2011-09-01 | Chugoku Electric Power Co Inc:The | System and method for support of operation in water storage facility, and program |
| CN101916335A (en) * | 2010-08-19 | 2010-12-15 | 河北农业大学 | Prediction method of city water-requirement time series-exponent smoothing model |
| WO2012036633A1 (en) * | 2010-09-14 | 2012-03-22 | Amitsur Preis | System and method for water distribution modelling |
Non-Patent Citations (6)
| Title |
|---|
| 周卓凡: "城市水资源阶梯定价模型研究", 《中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库经济与管理科学辑》 * |
| 尹建丽等: "南京市居民生活用水需求弹性分析", 《南水北调与水利科技》 * |
| 张乐英: "城镇用水量预测方法研究及制定合理水价的探索", 《中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库工程科技II辑》 * |
| 杨迎: "城市居民生活用水价格测算模型及应用", 《中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库经济与管理科学辑》 * |
| 肖玲等: "西安市水资源供需平衡的趋势预测", 《干旱区研究》 * |
| 高晶: "北京市城镇居民阶梯水价统计测算研究", 《中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库经济与管理科学辑》 * |
Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN114035619A (en) * | 2021-11-15 | 2022-02-11 | 圆藏(上海)科技有限公司 | Household water control method and system |
Also Published As
| Publication number | Publication date |
|---|---|
| CN103500368B (en) | 2017-01-11 |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| Dong et al. | Regional water footprint evaluation in China: A case of Liaoning | |
| Jannati et al. | Optimal performance of electric vehicles parking lot considering environmental issue | |
| Fidar et al. | Environmental implications of water efficient microcomponents in residential buildings | |
| CN106655246A (en) | Method of solving robust two-layer optimization model based on wind power prediction and demand response | |
| Miao et al. | Measuring water use performance in the cities along China's South-North Water Transfer Project | |
| Wang et al. | Compensation benefits allocation and stability evaluation of cascade hydropower stations based on Variation Coefficient-Shapley Value Method | |
| CN106058851B (en) | Electric power resource configuration method based on demand response and system | |
| CN104751373B (en) | The environmental economy dispatching method of meter and dusty gas discharge risk | |
| CN107565585A (en) | Energy storage device peak regulation report-back time Forecasting Methodology and its model creation method | |
| Oskouei et al. | A novel economic structure to improve the energy label in smart residential buildings under energy efficiency programs | |
| Huang et al. | An optimization model for water resources allocation in Dongjiang River Basin of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area under multiple complexities | |
| Demetriou et al. | Embracing carbon neutral electricity and transportation sectors in Cyprus | |
| Zhou et al. | Water resource security assessment and prediction in a changing natural and social environment: Case study of the Yanhe Watershed, China | |
| CN110310035A (en) | Active distribution network integrated evaluating method, device and storage medium | |
| Huang et al. | Regional heuristic interval recourse power system analysis for electricity and environmental systems planning in Eastern China | |
| Enshassi et al. | Drivers affecting household residents’ water and related energy consumption in residential buildings | |
| Hu et al. | Cross-regional ecological compensation under the composite index of water quality and quantity: A case study of the Yellow River Basin | |
| Yang et al. | Optimal scheduling of electro-thermal system considering refined demand response and source-load-storage cooperative hydrogen production | |
| CN103500368A (en) | Step water consumption predicating method for step water price | |
| CN109191329A (en) | A kind of power consumption influence factor decomposition method based on multilayer LMDI | |
| CN116258408A (en) | Index decomposition method, system, equipment and terminal for power grid transmission carbon emission flow | |
| Mao et al. | Carbon emission-based measurement of floor area ratio bonus for residential green buildings in China | |
| JP2024059039A (en) | Environmental value assessment system, environmental value assessment method, and program | |
| CN105096010A (en) | Grid planning method for considering demand side management | |
| Montanari et al. | Real time market models and prosumer profiling |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| C06 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| C10 | Entry into substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant | ||
| TR01 | Transfer of patent right | ||
| TR01 | Transfer of patent right |
Effective date of registration: 20180502 Address after: 310013 West Tower 625, A tower, Zhejiang science and Technology Park, 525 Xixi Road, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 625 Patentee after: Hangzhou Lai Chen Science and Technology Ltd. Address before: 310014 18 Chao Wang Road, Zhaohui six District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Patentee before: Zhejiang University of Technology |