CN103440531A - Wind power plant short-term wind power prediction system in view of operating state of wind power plant draught fan - Google Patents
Wind power plant short-term wind power prediction system in view of operating state of wind power plant draught fan Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a wind power plant short-term wind power prediction system in view of an operating state of a wind power plant draught fan. The wind power plant short-term wind power prediction system mainly comprises a super-short-term wind power output prediction module, a numerical weather prediction obtaining and analyzing module, a data collecting platform and a wind field real-time information collecting module, wherein the numerical weather prediction obtaining and analyzing module, the data collecting platform and the wind field real-time information collecting module are respectively connected with the super-short-term wind power output prediction module. The wind power plant short-term wind power prediction system in view of the operating state of the wind power plant draught fan can overcome the defects that in the prior art, prediction parameters are not comprehensive and prediction accuracy is low, and can achieve the advantages of being comprehensive in predication parameter and high in predication accuracy.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to wind-powered electricity generation and be transported to electro-technical field, particularly, relate to a kind of wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of taking into account the wind electric field blower running status.
Background technology
Existing prognoses system is not considered the wind electric field blower running status in its short term power forecast model, maintenance of fan, the information such as shutdown, fan trouble of rationing the power supply can't be taken into account.
Yet the situation that the blower fan of wind energy turbine set is shut down because of maintenance, fault, the reason such as ration the power supply is very general, this is also to cause one of of paramount importance reason that existing wind power forecasting system precision is not high.
In realizing process of the present invention, the inventor finds in prior art at least to exist Prediction Parameters not comprehensively and the defect such as precision of prediction is low.
Summary of the invention
The object of the invention is to, for the problems referred to above, propose to take into account the wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of wind electric field blower running status, to realize Prediction Parameters comprehensively and the high advantage of precision of prediction.
For achieving the above object, the technical solution used in the present invention is: the wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of taking into account the wind electric field blower running status, mainly comprise the ultra-short term wind-powered electricity generation prediction module of exerting oneself, and obtain parsing module, data acquisition platform and wind field real-time information collection module with the described short-term wind-electricity numerical weather forecast that prediction module is connected of exerting oneself respectively; Wherein:
The described short-term wind-electricity prediction module of exerting oneself: for obtaining numerical weather forecast and anemometer tower actual measurement weather data, input the blower fan start planning data of next day, and, as input, the model that the wind field running status is taken into account in application calculates short-term and exerts oneself to predict the outcome and output to man-machine interface and show;
Described numerical weather forecast obtains parsing module, regularly from ftp, download the data of weather forecast obtained from meteorological department for being responsible for, by the parse operation that comprises screening and format, by deposit data in database, as the exert oneself data source of prediction module of short-term wind-electricity;
Described data acquisition platform, collect the weather data relevant with prediction for being responsible for from anemometer tower, data done to the preliminary screening processing, and deposit database in, as the exert oneself input data source of prediction module of short-term wind-electricity;
Described wind field real-time information collection module, for the wind field blower fan being responsible for obtaining from blower fan producer in real time meritorious data be input to the short-term wind-electricity prediction module of exerting oneself, calculate use as predicted data comparison and predicted power.
Further, the above-described wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of taking into account the wind electric field blower running status, also comprise with the wind energy turbine set start next day plan that prediction module is connected of exerting oneself of described short-term wind-electricity and make a report on terminal;
Terminal is made a report in described wind energy turbine set start next day plan, as open, to user's craft, makes a report on terminal, for supporting to make a report in the mode of friendly type man-machine interface the start plan of next day, supports real-time update, as the exert oneself data source of prediction module of short-term wind-electricity.
Further, the above-described wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of taking into account the wind electric field blower running status, also comprise and the described short-term wind-electricity human-computer interface module that prediction module is connected of exerting oneself;
Described human-computer interface module, as the platform of man-machine interaction, for to comprise data form, graph and histogrammic information display format, represent every actual measurement weather data, wind field meritorious data, prediction intermediate result, prediction net result in real time to the user.
Further, described human-computer interface module, comprise LCD display or touch-screen.
Further, the above-described wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of taking into account the wind electric field blower running status, also comprise respectively and the described short-term wind-electricity error statistics computing module that prediction module is connected with human-computer interface module of exerting oneself;
Described error statistics computing module, for the prediction of inputting the different time interval with survey out force data, then in conjunction with wind energy turbine set plan start operating mode, statistics ration the power supply or the maintenance condition under qualification rate, average relative error, related coefficient.
Further, the above-described wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of taking into account the wind electric field blower running status, the implementation procedure of this system comprises:
(1) make a report on terminal by wind energy turbine set start plan, make a report on start plan next day, result is set and will be endowed up-to-date markers and be saved in database;
(2) the up-to-date wind field planning data of starting shooting next day, regularly be transferred to wind energy turbine set short term power prognoses system platform end by power private network every day from database;
The short-term prediction module of exerting oneself, using when regularly accessing numerical weather forecast data and anemometer tower actual measurement weather data as prediction data source every day, access up-to-date start planning data, in conjunction with this three classes data source, produce short term power through the correction of the wind energy turbine set running status data that predict the outcome;
(3) the short term power data that predict the outcome are transfused to the error statistics computing module, the plan start operating mode of measured power, short-term forecasting power and every day of take is the input data, statistics ration the power supply or the maintenance condition under the technical indicators such as qualification rate, average relative error, related coefficient;
(4) provide user's wind energy turbine set start plan to make a report on terminal, by terminal, manually make a report on start plan next day;
(5) this short-term of taking into account the wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of wind electric field blower running status prediction module of exerting oneself, need access numerical weather forecast, anemometer tower actual measurement weather data and up-to-date start planning data, in conjunction with these three kinds of data sources, produce short term power through the correction of the wind energy turbine set running status data that predict the outcome;
The error statistics computing module, take measured power, short-term forecasting power, plan start operating mode is data source, the technical indicators such as the qualification rate in statistics, average relative error, related coefficient, considered to ration the power supply or the maintenance condition under the examination of short term power precision of prediction.
The wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of taking into account the wind electric field blower running status of various embodiments of the present invention, owing to mainly comprising the ultra-short term wind-powered electricity generation prediction module of exerting oneself, and obtain parsing module, data acquisition platform and wind field real-time information collection module with the short-term wind-electricity numerical weather forecast that prediction module is connected of exerting oneself respectively; Can make a report on terminal by wind energy turbine set start plan, consider wind energy turbine set plan start next day work information in the short-term wind-electricity power forecast model, effectively improve the forecast precision of wind farm power prediction; Thereby can overcome in prior art Prediction Parameters not comprehensively and the low defect of precision of prediction, to realize the comprehensive and high advantage of precision of prediction of Prediction Parameters.
Other features and advantages of the present invention will be set forth in the following description, and, partly from instructions, become apparent, or understand by implementing the present invention.
Below by drawings and Examples, technical scheme of the present invention is described in further detail.
The accompanying drawing explanation
Accompanying drawing is used to provide a further understanding of the present invention, and forms the part of instructions, for explaining the present invention, is not construed as limiting the invention together with embodiments of the present invention.In the accompanying drawings:
Fig. 1 is the principle of work schematic diagram that the present invention takes into account the wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of wind electric field blower running status;
Fig. 2 is the display interface that the present invention takes into account the wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system human-computer interface module of wind electric field blower running status.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the preferred embodiments of the present invention are described, should be appreciated that preferred embodiment described herein, only for description and interpretation the present invention, is not intended to limit the present invention.
According to the embodiment of the present invention; as depicted in figs. 1 and 2; the wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power of taking into account wind electric field blower running status prognoses system is provided; can make a report on terminal by wind energy turbine set start plan; next day wind energy turbine set plan start work information (as operating conditions such as the maintenance of wind turbine next day, shutdown) is taken in the short-term wind-electricity power forecast model, effectively improve the forecast precision of wind farm power prediction.
This takes into account the wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of wind electric field blower running status, on the basis of existing wind energy turbine set short term power prognoses system framework, increase wind energy turbine set start plan and make a report on terminal, thereby offer one of user time method of daily planning start capacity is set, and can take into account by this wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of wind electric field blower running status, the irrational Output rusults of manual shift short term power forecast model.
Referring to Fig. 1, the wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of taking into account the wind electric field blower running status of the present embodiment mainly comprises following module:
(1) human-computer interface module: this is that user and system are carried out mutual platform, the information display format of human-computer interface module, with forms such as data form, graph, histograms, the every actual measurement weather data, wind field that has represented prognoses system to the user be meritorious data, prediction intermediate result, prediction net result in real time;
(2) numerical weather forecast obtains parsing module: be responsible for regularly from ftp, downloading the data of weather forecast obtained from meteorological department, operate deposit data in database by screening, format etc., as the exert oneself data source of prediction module of short-term wind-electricity;
(3) wind field real-time information collection module: be responsible for the wind field blower fan that will obtain from blower fan producer in real time meritorious data be input to man-machine interface and the short-term wind-electricity prediction module of exerting oneself, using and calculate use as predicted data comparison and predicted power;
(4) data acquisition platform: be responsible for collecting the weather data relevant with prediction from anemometer tower, and data are done to the preliminary screening processing, and in the database of depositing, as the exert oneself input data source of prediction module of short-term wind-electricity;
(5) the short-term wind-electricity prediction module of exerting oneself: obtain numerical weather forecast and anemometer tower actual measurement weather data, and the blower fan start planning data of input next day, as input, the model that the wind field running status is taken into account in application calculates short-term and exerts oneself to predict the outcome and output to man-machine interface and show;
(6) error statistics computing module: the prediction at input different time interval and survey out force data, then in conjunction with wind energy turbine set plan start operating mode, statistics ration the power supply or the maintenance condition under qualification rate, average relative error, related coefficient;
(7) terminal is made a report in wind energy turbine set start plan: open to user's craft, make a report on terminal, support to make a report in the mode of the man-machine interface of friendly type the start plan of next day, support real-time update, as the exert oneself data source of prediction module of short-term wind-electricity.
Referring to Fig. 2, in the wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of taking into account the wind electric field blower running status of above-described embodiment, the demonstration information of human-computer interface module, provide one can insert respectively for two different wind energy turbine set the terminal of plan start operating mode." start/shutdown " edit box that the user can click each blower fan numbering side by mouse arranges following start stopped status, also can click row head and carry out the following start of batch setting stopped status.The user can be arranged same blower fan repeatedly, until click " modification " button preservation of below, interface, result is set.Result is set will be endowed up-to-date markers and be saved in database.
The up-to-date wind field planning data of starting shooting next day regularly is transferred to wind energy turbine set short term power prognoses system platform end by power private network every day from database.The short-term of this system exert oneself prediction module every day regularly access numerical weather forecast and anemometer tower actual measurement weather data as prediction data source in, access up-to-date start planning data, in conjunction with this two classes data source, produce short term power through the revising data that predict the outcome.
The short term power data that predict the outcome are transfused to the error statistics computing module, it is the input data that the latter be take the plan start operating mode of measured power, short-term forecasting power and every day, statistics ration the power supply or the maintenance condition under the technical indicators such as qualification rate, average relative error, related coefficient.
The wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of taking into account the wind electric field blower running status of above-described embodiment, on the basis that has the wind farm power prediction system of moving now, increase wind energy turbine set start next day plan and make a report on terminal, start by wind energy turbine set wind turbine next day, maintenance, the model of short term power prediction is included in the shutdown plan of rationing the power supply in, thereby the prediction error of effectively having avoided the change because of the wind energy turbine set running status to cause, effectively improved the precision of wind farm power prediction, auxiliary power system call decision-making better, thereby realize guaranteeing that electrical network can carry out under the prerequisite of stable operation, improve to greatest extent the wind-powered electricity generation utilization factor, for generating electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems to dispatch, large-scale wind farm group provides technical basis and theoretical direction, promote the smooth enforcement of national new forms of energy strategy.
The wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of taking into account the wind electric field blower running status of above-described embodiment, its implementation procedure is as follows:
(1) make a report on terminal by wind energy turbine set start plan, make a report on start plan next day, result is set and will be endowed up-to-date markers and be saved in database;
(2) the up-to-date wind field planning data of starting shooting next day, regularly be transferred to wind energy turbine set short term power prognoses system platform end by power private network every day from database;
This short-term of taking into account the wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of wind electric field blower running status prediction module of exerting oneself, using when regularly accessing numerical weather forecast data and anemometer tower actual measurement weather data as prediction data source every day, access up-to-date start planning data, in conjunction with this three classes data source, produce short term power through the correction of the wind energy turbine set running status data that predict the outcome;
(3) the short term power data that predict the outcome are transfused to the error statistics computing module, the plan start operating mode of measured power, short-term forecasting power and every day of take is the input data, statistics ration the power supply or the maintenance condition under the technical indicators such as qualification rate, average relative error, related coefficient;
(4) provide user's wind energy turbine set start plan to make a report on terminal, by terminal, manually make a report on start plan next day;
(5) this short-term of taking into account the wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of wind electric field blower running status prediction module of exerting oneself, need access numerical weather forecast, anemometer tower actual measurement weather data and up-to-date start planning data, in conjunction with these three kinds of data sources, produce short term power through the correction of the wind energy turbine set running status data that predict the outcome;
This takes into account the error statistics computing module of the wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of wind electric field blower running status, take measured power, short-term forecasting power, plan start operating mode is data source, the technical indicators such as the qualification rate in statistics, average relative error, related coefficient, considered to ration the power supply or the maintenance condition under the examination of short term power precision of prediction.
In sum, the wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of taking into account the wind electric field blower running status of the various embodiments described above of the present invention, be based at present part wind energy turbine set in operation inevasible these actual conditions of more concentrated maintenance process that face after several years that faces that seasonality is rationed the power supply and wind energy turbine set is gone into operation, the short-term wind-electricity of take is exerted oneself prediction module as basis, the wind energy turbine set start plan of take is made a report on terminal as core, by manually making a report on start plan next day, successful considers the information such as maintenance of fan, ration the power supply shutdown, fan trouble in the short term power forecast model; The improved short-term wind-electricity prediction module of exerting oneself can combine original the predicting the outcome of model under start planning data and desirable open state, can effectively revise the model error that the change due to the wind energy turbine set running status causes, thereby improve the precision of wind energy turbine set power forecast result.
Finally it should be noted that: the foregoing is only the preferred embodiments of the present invention, be not limited to the present invention, although with reference to previous embodiment, the present invention is had been described in detail, for a person skilled in the art, its technical scheme that still can put down in writing aforementioned each embodiment is modified, or part technical characterictic wherein is equal to replacement.Within the spirit and principles in the present invention all, any modification of doing, be equal to replacement, improvement etc., within all should being included in protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. take into account the wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of wind electric field blower running status, it is characterized in that, mainly comprise the ultra-short term wind-powered electricity generation prediction module of exerting oneself, and obtain parsing module, data acquisition platform and wind field real-time information collection module with the described short-term wind-electricity numerical weather forecast that prediction module is connected of exerting oneself respectively; Wherein:
The described short-term wind-electricity prediction module of exerting oneself: for obtaining numerical weather forecast and anemometer tower actual measurement weather data, input the blower fan start planning data of next day, and, as input, the model that the wind field running status is taken into account in application calculates short-term and exerts oneself to predict the outcome and output to man-machine interface and show;
Described numerical weather forecast obtains parsing module, regularly from ftp, download the data of weather forecast obtained from meteorological department for being responsible for, by the parse operation that comprises screening and format, by deposit data in database, as the exert oneself data source of prediction module of short-term wind-electricity;
Described data acquisition platform, collect the weather data relevant with prediction for being responsible for from anemometer tower, data done to the preliminary screening processing, and deposit database in, as the exert oneself input data source of prediction module of short-term wind-electricity;
Described wind field real-time information collection module, for the wind field blower fan being responsible for obtaining from blower fan producer in real time meritorious data be input to the short-term wind-electricity prediction module of exerting oneself, calculate use as predicted data comparison and predicted power.
2. the wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of taking into account the wind electric field blower running status according to claim 1, is characterized in that, also comprises with the wind energy turbine set start next day plan that prediction module is connected of exerting oneself of described short-term wind-electricity and make a report on terminal;
Terminal is made a report in described wind energy turbine set start next day plan, as open, to user's craft, makes a report on terminal, for supporting to make a report in the mode of friendly type man-machine interface the start plan of next day, supports real-time update, as the exert oneself data source of prediction module of short-term wind-electricity.
3. the wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of taking into account the wind electric field blower running status according to claim 1 and 2, is characterized in that, also comprises and the described short-term wind-electricity human-computer interface module that prediction module is connected of exerting oneself;
Described human-computer interface module, as the platform of man-machine interaction, for to comprise data form, graph and histogrammic information display format, represent every actual measurement weather data, wind field meritorious data, prediction intermediate result, prediction net result in real time to the user.
4. the wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of taking into account the wind electric field blower running status according to claim 3, is characterized in that described human-computer interface module comprises LCD display or touch-screen.
5. the wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of taking into account the wind electric field blower running status according to claim 3, is characterized in that, also comprises respectively and the described short-term wind-electricity error statistics computing module that prediction module is connected with human-computer interface module of exerting oneself;
Described error statistics computing module, for the prediction of inputting the different time interval with survey out force data, then in conjunction with wind energy turbine set plan start operating mode, statistics ration the power supply or the maintenance condition under qualification rate, average relative error, related coefficient.
6. the wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of taking into account the wind electric field blower running status according to claim 5, is characterized in that, the implementation procedure of this system comprises:
(1) make a report on terminal by wind energy turbine set start plan, make a report on start plan next day, result is set and will be endowed up-to-date markers and be saved in database;
(2) the up-to-date wind field planning data of starting shooting next day, regularly be transferred to wind energy turbine set short term power prognoses system platform end by power private network every day from database;
The short-term prediction module of exerting oneself, using when regularly accessing numerical weather forecast data and anemometer tower actual measurement weather data as prediction data source every day, access up-to-date start planning data, in conjunction with this three classes data source, produce short term power through the correction of the wind energy turbine set running status data that predict the outcome;
(3) the short term power data that predict the outcome are transfused to the error statistics computing module, the plan start operating mode of measured power, short-term forecasting power and every day of take is the input data, statistics ration the power supply or the maintenance condition under the technical indicators such as qualification rate, average relative error, related coefficient;
(4) provide user's wind energy turbine set start plan to make a report on terminal, by terminal, manually make a report on start plan next day;
(5) this short-term of taking into account the wind energy turbine set short-term wind-electricity power prognoses system of wind electric field blower running status prediction module of exerting oneself, need access numerical weather forecast, anemometer tower actual measurement weather data and up-to-date start planning data, in conjunction with these three kinds of data sources, produce short term power through the correction of the wind energy turbine set running status data that predict the outcome;
The error statistics computing module, take measured power, short-term forecasting power, plan start operating mode is data source, the technical indicators such as the qualification rate in statistics, average relative error, related coefficient, considered to ration the power supply or the maintenance condition under the examination of short term power precision of prediction.
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| CN105305428A (en) * | 2015-10-30 | 2016-02-03 | 大唐山西新能源有限公司 | Method and system for improving reliability of wind prediction system by use of double-redundancy mode |
| CN105305428B (en) * | 2015-10-30 | 2018-01-12 | 大唐山西新能源有限公司 | The method and system of wind forecasting system reliability are improved with dual redundant mode |
| CN110580549A (en) * | 2019-09-02 | 2019-12-17 | 山东大学 | Regional short-term energy power prediction method and system considering weather |
| CN110580549B (en) * | 2019-09-02 | 2020-06-02 | 山东大学 | Regional short-term energy power prediction method and system considering weather |
| CN110705768A (en) * | 2019-09-26 | 2020-01-17 | 国家电网公司华北分部 | Wind power generation power prediction optimization method and device for wind power plant |
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| CN110705770A (en) * | 2019-09-26 | 2020-01-17 | 国家电网公司华北分部 | Photovoltaic power prediction optimization method and device for photovoltaic power station |
| CN110705769A (en) * | 2019-09-26 | 2020-01-17 | 国家电网公司华北分部 | New energy power generation power prediction optimization method and device |
| CN110705770B (en) * | 2019-09-26 | 2022-07-05 | 国家电网公司华北分部 | Photovoltaic power prediction optimization method and device for photovoltaic power station |
| CN110705769B (en) * | 2019-09-26 | 2022-07-05 | 国家电网公司华北分部 | New energy power generation power prediction optimization method and device |
| CN110705772B (en) * | 2019-09-26 | 2022-08-02 | 国家电网公司华北分部 | Regional power grid wind power generation power prediction optimization method and device |
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