CN103399994B - Military aircraft regular inspection flow optimization method based on probabilistic network scheduling technology - Google Patents
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Abstract
A kind of aircraft regular inspection flow optimization method based on probabilistic network scheduling technology, is used for optimizing aircraft regular inspection flow process, reducing the aircraft grounding time, solves working procedure time-parameter uncertain problem in regular inspection process optimization.It includes aircraft regular inspection flow process probabilistic network scheduling figure structure, aircraft regular inspection flow process probabilistic network scheduling determinization and aircraft regular inspection flow process deterministic network planning optimization three part.First, according to the feature of regular inspection work, the probabilistic network scheduling figure of regular inspection workflow is built；Then, on the basis of investigational data information on the spot, the regular inspection data collected are analyzed, utilize the probability triple-time estimate method that limits based on genetic algorithm to determine the expected duration of each operation, probabilistic network scheduling optimization problem is converted to deterministic network planning optimization problem；Finally, use the PERT_CPM module of WinQSB software that regular inspection workflow is optimized, determine the parameter such as critical path and completion date of regular inspection flow process.The method disclosure satisfy that efficiency is high, the strong requirement of Engineering operation.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to aeronautical maintenance technical field, relate to restriction probability triple-time estimate method based on genetic algorithm and determine work
The expected duration of sequence, solves regular inspection flow process probabilistic network scheduling determinization problem, determines the critical path of regular inspection flow process
The parameter such as footpath and completion date.
Background technology
Military aircraft make regular check on safeguard (periodic inspection and maintenance is called for short regular inspection) be
After the flight (airborne hours) that aircraft is asked through one section time, aircraft, electromotor and airborne equipment are certain to owing to abrasion becomes
Must loosen and be corroded.The quality of the hydraulic engine oil of aircraft system, lubricating oil etc. can deteriorate and quantity can reduce, and needs again
Changing or supplement, therefore aircraft is after flight after a while, and maintainer will carry out inspection and the repairing being correlated with.Flown
Each system of machine checks and test is to find and solve fault and deficiency, makes the reliability of aircraft return to original
Level, could allow it complete the work of following flight time section.
The work of military aircraft regular inspection generally relates to the collaborative work of multiple specialty.During whole regular inspection, each specialty is fixed
In flow process between inspection work, existing information is mutual, also has independent operation, existing hardware operation, also has software to operate, and existing
Regular inspection flow process be the angle design from single specialty, rarely have the relatedness in view of each professional operation flow process, lack science,
Rationally, the parallel work-flow code of specification, this results in linking between each specialty and coordinates unreasonable, the most smooth, causes whole system
The prolongation of system time between predetermined repairs.
Existing military aircraft regular inspection process optimization research focuses principally on the experience of attendant and carries out, and lacks corresponding
Theory support, and the suitability is the highest, and also the information that attendant provides is due to its knowledge, experience and bias, data
There may be deviation, be not easy to promote the use of；In flow process, persistent period and the Duration Variance computing formula of each operation are fixed
Single, it is impossible to change with practical situation change；Have ignored the collaborative work of each specialty shadow to time between predetermined repairs in regular inspection work
Ringing, the operation expected duration of calculating has deviation.Carry out military aircraft regular inspection process optimization and be favorably improved attendant's
Collaborative work efficiency, shortens Inspection cycle, and the reliability improving aircraft all has great importance.
The method for solving of process optimization problem has multiple, and such as mathematic programming methods and heuristic, but the former is for greatly
There is the problems such as computationally intensive, inefficient in scale issue, the latter is just for particular problem, and versatility is poor.In recent years, flow process
The research of optimization problem is concentrated mainly on intelligent optimization algorithm aspect, as particle cluster algorithm, genetic algorithm, Artificial Immune Algorithm and
Ant group algorithms etc., can solve large space, the complicated optimization problem such as non-linear, but easily Premature Convergence, make search be absorbed in office
Portion's optimal solution, or iteration speed is slow, computationally intensive, and Engineering operation is poor.
Network planning technique is the plan management method of a kind of science, the planning model based on network, including closing
Key path method (CPM) and program evaluation and review technique (PERT).During establishment Task Network plan, the persistent period of each operation
Can not be accurately determined in advance, estimation can only be made according to different situations roughly.Traditional processing method has two kinds: one
Be first to provide 3 kinds of possible times of operation, i.e. optimistic time, conservative time and most likely time, then weighted average obtains work
The expected duration of sequence, two is the expected duration directly giving operation.
Although classical PERT is extensively used till today always, but this method has certain limitation.It assumes bar
Part and parameter value require excessively harsh, it is difficult to reflect changeable, uncertain realistic problem；Its persistent period mean variance meter
Calculate formula fixed single, it is impossible to change with practical situation change.In the last few years, the scholar such as Hahn, Jose queried classics one after another
The reasonability of PERT formula of variance, and propose respective improved method.But, they more or less complicate average and
The calculating of variance.Hahn introduces parameter Θ and with being uniformly distributed, Beta distribution is mixed composition Mixture Distribution Model, by estimating
Θ value regulates probabilistic size that model describes, and then regulates variance；Jose constructs one and adjusts variable C
(δ) side's of adjustment extent.When calculating variance, C to be calculated (δ) just can draw last result.Utilize based on heredity
The restriction probability triple-time estimate method of algorithm, the deficiency of method of estimation when overcoming conventional three, it is then assumed that step lasts time clothes
It is distributed from Beta, establishes matching variance least model in conjunction with limiting probability triple-time estimate method, and use genetic algorithm to model
Calculating, result of calculation calculates for operation expected duration the most at last, estimates and distribution when can reduce conventional three
Function determine during error, to improving, PERT network planning technique is significant.
Summary of the invention
The technology of the present invention solves problem: overcome existing military aircraft regular inspection process optimization to be based primarily upon working experience,
Lack the deficiencies such as theory support method, utilize the expectation of triple-time estimate method approximate evaluation flow process operation based on genetic algorithm to continue
Time, a kind of military aircraft regular inspection flow optimization method based on probabilistic network scheduling technology is proposed.
The technical solution of the present invention is:
1, a kind of military aircraft regular inspection flow optimization method based on probabilistic network scheduling technology, including following step
Rapid:
(1) military aircraft regular inspection flow process probabilistic network scheduling figure builds；
(2) military aircraft regular inspection flow process probabilistic network scheduling determinization；
(3) military aircraft regular inspection flow process deterministic network planning optimization.
2, the military aircraft regular inspection flow process probabilistic network scheduling figure in described step (1) is based on the time, uses
The form of network is by vivid the demonstrating of parallel and serial relation of mutual dependence for existence, mutually restriction between operation each in whole flow process
Come.
3, the military aircraft regular inspection flow process probabilistic network scheduling determinization in described step (2) is to hold for each operation
The uncertainty of continuous time, utilizes the probability triple-time estimate method that limits based on genetic algorithm to determine the expected duration of operation.
4, the definitiveness network planning optimization in described step (3) concretely comprises the following steps:
1. in input step (2), the parameter such as the parallel and serial relation of each operation and expected duration is input to PERT_
The Matrix Form of CPM module, builds work (Activity) information slip of military aircraft regular inspection flow process.
2. utilize the Solve and Analyze of PERT_CPM module, determine the parameter such as completion date and critical path.
The principle of the present invention: traditional military aircraft regular inspection flow process is based primarily upon the experience of attendant and data are carried out,
Theoretical property is the most deep enough, systemic the most comprehensive；Persistent period of each operation and side in probabilistic network scheduling optimization problem
Difference computing formula fixed single, it is impossible to embody the statistical property of different step lasts time, can not be with practical situation change
Change；Have ignored the collaborative work of each specialty impact on time between predetermined repairs in regular inspection work, the step lasts time of calculating has partially
Difference.So the present invention is directed to the uncertainty of each step lasts time in flow process, use restriction probability three based on genetic algorithm
Time the estimation technique determine the duration parameters of operation, and then utilize deterministic network Plan optimization software to optimize military aircraft regular inspection
Flow process, improves critical path and the isoparametric estimated accuracy of completion date, enhances the Engineering operation of process optimization.
In probabilistic network scheduling optimization problem is converted into deterministic network planning optimization process, most important determine
The duration parameters of each operation in network planning, the method for traditional determination step lasts time is triple-time estimate method, compares
Fast convenience, weak point be its assumed condition and parameter value requirement the harshest, it is difficult to reflect changeable, uncertain existing
Real problem；Method of estimation when utilizing restriction probability three based on genetic algorithm, can effectively utilize available data, accurate matching work
The parameter of the Beta distribution function of sequence, and then estimate the persistent period of operation.
Contrast the triple-time estimate method of several improvement and estimation technique when five, step lasts time expected value that the method calculates and
The error of variance is all compared with big and make the task duration calculated less than normal；Under Equations of The Second Kind Beta distribution occasion, α, β value determines that
's.The value of the two parameter once it is determined that, the concrete shape of Beta distribution also determines that.The most not it is likely that its mode and giving
The most probable value gone out is inconsistent, and cannot embody the environmental difference characteristic between each operation when processing practical problem.This
The bright probability triple-time estimate method that limits based on genetic algorithm carries out the expected duration of calculation process, improves estimated accuracy, increases
Strong Engineering operation.
Owing to Beta distribution function expression formula is complicated, analytically angle is difficult to solve, and can use heredity with appliance computer
Algorithm obtains the satisfactory solution meeting required precision, improves search efficiency, speed and precision.
Present invention advantage compared with prior art is: utilize in probabilistic network scheduling technical Analysis regular inspection flow process
The parallel and serial relation of each operation, overcomes the deficiency of tradition regular inspection process optimization blindly poor efficiency；Restriction based on genetic algorithm
Probability triple-time estimate method, determines the duration parameters of each operation in regular inspection flow process, by probabilistic network scheduling transformation
For deterministic network planning optimization, more traditional triple-time estimate method and estimation technique when five, estimated accuracy is high, and Engineering operation is more
By force；Military aircraft regular inspection flow process is optimized by the PERT_CPM module using WinQSB software, determines what aircraft regular inspection worked
The parameter such as critical path and completion date, compared with other optimized algorithm efficiency height, speed is fast, solving precision is high.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the military aircraft regular inspection process optimization flow chart based on probabilistic network scheduling technology of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is uncertain military aircraft regular inspection flow network planning chart, 1. jack-up aircrafts assign instruction in figure, 2. logical
Electric-examination is looked into, and 3. oil transportation sequential search, fuel dump inspection, fuel level gauge error price differential, 4. take off radome, 5. radar in situ detection,
6. energising checks, 7. radar signal detecting, and 8. antenna panel IFF oscillator checks, 9. dress radome, 10. puts oxygen, 11. flap seat cabins
Lid, 12. flap seat chairs, 13. extract, 14. aircraft warehouse-ins, 15. jack-up aircrafts, 16. ordnance professional works, 17. mechanical major work,
18. ad hoc professional works, 19. avionics professional works, 20. mechanisms check, 21. bomb disposal shooting cylinders, and 22. tear gun overhaul open, 23.
Tearing undercarriage adnexa open and verify, 24. tear hydraulic system adnexa open and verify, and 25. tear fuel system adnexa open and verify, 26. reviewing party
To rudder, 27. tear cold gas system adnexa open, and 28. tear environmental control system adnexa open and verify, and 29. airframe structure positions check, 30. angles of attack are total
Temperature angular displacement sensor detection, 31. total static-pressure system detections, 32. environmental control system inspections, 33. engine electrical system inspections,
34. reading instument inspections, 35. aviation attitude system detections, 36. oxygen system detections, 37. air data system detections, 38. radars set
Standby cabin is detected, 39. Wave guide system detections, 40. passenger cabin inspections, 41. radar air-leakage test, 42. yaw angle sensor detections,
43. radar air pipelines check, 44. each mechanism airtight tests, 45. overhauls, and 46. recover gun and check, 47. adnexaes
Detecting a flaw, 48. install recovers, and 49. installations recover, 50. cooperation associating folding and unfoldings, 51. cooperation associating folding and unfoldings, 52. associating folding and unfoldings, and 53.
Manipulation stick force checks, 54. undercarriage controls, 55. flap folding and unfoldings, and 56. Nose Wheel Steerings subtract pendulum, 57. movable wing aperture measurements,
58. put down aircraft, 59. wheel braking inspections, and 60. dress canopies also carry out supercharging inspection, and 61. oil cold air are filled, 62. filling oxygen
Gas the inspection that is energized, prepare before 63. test runs, and 64. test runs check that aircraft and engine state parameters, 65. radar high pressure check,
66. each specialty energisings check, 67. aircrafts are always examined, and 68. fill in card, log book, and 69. surrender aircraft.
Fig. 3 is definitiveness military aircraft regular inspection flow network plan input figure, and in figure, working condition table comprises operation sequence number
(Activity Number), operation title (Activity Name), precedence activities (Immediate Predecessor), the phase
Hope the persistent period (Normal Time) etc.；
Fig. 4 is definitiveness military aircraft regular inspection flow network plan output figure, and time parameter result of calculation in figure, including work
The time (Project Completion Time) that sequence time (Activity Time), task complete, every operation are the earliest
Time started (Earliest Start), earliest finish time (Earliest Finish), late start time (Lastest
Start), latest finishing time (Lastest Finish), key node (On Critical Path), critical path number
(Number of Critical Path (s)) etc..
Detailed description of the invention
Military aircraft regular inspection flow optimization method pair below with probabilistic network scheduling technology of the present invention
Certain type military aircraft carries out 400 ± 20h regular inspection process optimization, and Optimizing Flow is as shown in Figure 1.
(1) military aircraft regular inspection flow process probabilistic network scheduling；
Analyze the parallel and serial relation of each inter process of regular inspection flow process, determine military aircraft 400 ± 20h as shown in Figure 2
Regular inspection flow process probabilistic network scheduling figure.
(2) utilizing restriction probability triple-time estimate method based on genetic algorithm, determine in probabilistic network scheduling figure is each
The expected duration of operation；
Network planning technique is applied to military aircraft regular inspection process optimization, it is contemplated that the impact of complicated factor, because of uncertain
Factor is too many, needs to utilize the expected duration estimating each operation.
Estimating when Beta is distributed three to assume that the persistent period of operation obeys Beta distribution, the distribution function of Beta distribution is such as
Shown in following formula:
The PERT average of each operation and variance be:
According to the theory of Malcolm, accurately estimating optimistic time that an operation completes, most likely time, pessimism
The value of time, is estimated as t respectivelya、tm、tbThree values, its expected value and variance can be estimated by below equation
Each operation PERT average and the whether accurate of variance will directly affect the persistent period of each operation in uncertain network
Expect and variance, and the expectation of step lasts time and variance directly affect PERT method and solve the final of uncertain network plan
Result of calculation.Estimate when three during reality application, often to there is the problem such as estimation standard disunity, estimated accuracy difference, thus caused
Work probability calculation resultant error is big；And Beta distribution has the features such as fitness is strong, the energy multiple important distribution of approximate fits, as just
State is distributed, is uniformly distributed, angular distribution, rayleigh distributed, trapezoidal profile etc..In terms of mathematical statistics angle, PERT method is according to center
Limit theorem sets the total lever factor Normal Distribution of task, but during in critical path, each step lasts time can not meet
Heart limit theorem independent identically distributed will be it is assumed that this will cause final result certain error occur.
Error during determining for minimizing triple-time estimate method and distribution function thereof, estimates when being taken based on limiting probability three
Method estimates the persistent period of operation, defines B (ti)=λi, i.e. tiIt is λ for fractioniTime the step lasts time.Utilize this fixed
Justice, estimating (t when threea, tm, tb) be improved to and certain fraction λi=(λ1,λ2,λ3) corresponding step lasts time Estimate ti
=(t1,t2,t3)。
DefinitionFor fraction λiCorresponding time tiThe Beta matching variance estimated.
Beta fitting of distribution model: assume that there is β (a, b, α, a β) distribution preferably matching can limit probability λi=
(λ1,λ2,λ3) corresponding time Estimate ti=(t1,t2,t3)；With Z=min (△ ζ) as object function, seek suitable a, b, α,
β parameter makes matching variance minimum, so that it is determined that β (a, b, α, β) distribution.
Owing to Beta distribution function expression formula is complicated, analytically angle is difficult to solve, and genetic algorithm can be used to obtain full
The satisfactory solution of foot required precision.Then formula is substituted into
Obtain the expected duration of operation.
(3) on the basis of step (2), probabilistic network scheduling optimization problem is converted to deterministic network plan excellent
Change problem, uses the PERT_CPM module of WinQSB software to be optimized military aircraft 400 ± 20h regular inspection flow process.
1) input military aircraft 400 ± 20h each working procedure parameter of regular inspection flow process
The fundamental of PERT key element-programme evaluation and review technique includes: task, operation, node.
Task: generally a relatively independent engineering the most a certain " task ".From the point of view of keeping in repair regular inspection, regular inspection unit connects
Receiving a frame military aircraft and prepare the beginning that regular inspection is exactly task, aircraft recovers the end that flight is exactly regular inspection task.
Operation: the task of aeronautical maintenance, completes from start to finish, is all one and elapses over time and be progressively in progress
Process.In this flow process, contain big and small classification work, it is also possible to be referred to as " operation ", and standard and requirement can
Can be different.If each operation comprises the sub-operation of specific more than one piece, then can be referred to as " separability " of operation.A lot
Operation all may be segmented step by step, until implementing to concrete staff.But, it is contemplated that regular inspection project management system
Operability, makes the sub-operation of segmentation have certain logicality as far as possible.
Node: for aeronautical maintenance, every maintenance procedures all can have an instantaneous and mark starting to do to complete
Instantaneous, such as preparation tool and check instrument.When certain maintenance procedures only has a precedence activities, completing of precedence activities is instantaneous
Be exactly this operation start instantaneous.If there are several precedence activities simultaneously, then after all of precedence activities all completes, this operation
Start the instantaneous just arrival performed.This is instantaneous as the interface point between operation and operation, is referred to as " node ".Node may tool
There is significantly mark, such as sign documents；It is likely to not indicate, such as needs drain the oil and add during fuel system inspection instruction
Oil, refueling and draining the oil is two operations of continuous print, between need not join content, as just the differentiation of two different operations.
According to the serial and concurrent relation between each operation in network planning figure, carry out military aircraft 400 ± 20h regular inspection
Flow process each operation working condition table, and determine the expected duration of each operation.
As it is shown on figure 3, the work of military aircraft 400 ± 20h regular inspection has 69 operations, four specialties complete, defeated
In the parameter entered, it is thus necessary to determine that the logical relation of each operation and expected duration.
The time parameter of process portion is as shown in table 1:
The time parameter of table 1 process portion
2) military aircraft 400 ± 20h regular inspection flow process is optimized, determines critical path and the completion date of Optimizing Flow
Etc. parameter
Network planning figure is also referred to as network, closes for operation every in expression task and the logic between them
System.Use network and calculate time parameter, calculated critical path can be found out, thus enforcement more has when plan performs
The monitoring of effect.
From the beginning of start node, the direction along arrow continues through a series of arrow and node, finally arrives terminal node
The path of point is referred to as path.Each paths has the deadline oneself determined, it continues equal to work in every on this path
The summation of time, has also been the plan time of all working on this paths, and it is long that this duration is alternatively referred to as road.According to road length
Size, path can be divided into critical path, secondary critical path and non-critical path.The path that road length is the longest is referred to as critical path.Position
All working in critical path is referred to as key job.The speed that key job completes directly affects the reality of whole task duration
Existing.Road length is only second to the path of critical path pathway length, is referred to as time critical path.In addition to critical path, secondary critical path
Other all paths are referred to as non-critical path.
1. critical path is determined according to key job
The path that key job is sequentially connected and is formed is exactly critical path.The a length of calculated term of works of critical path, also
It it is exactly we usually described main duration.
2. critical path is determined according to key node
The earliest time of every node is equal with latest time, or the difference of latest time and earliest time is equal to plan
Duration and the difference of calculated term of works, this node is referred to as key node.Node in critical path must be key node, crucial
Node is not necessarily in critical path.Therefore, only critical path can't be determined with key node.When a key node with
When multiple key nodes connect, its connecting line need to be differentiated one by one according to the principle of maximum path.
3. critical path is determined according to free float
The free float of key job is the most minimum, but the work of free float minimum is not necessarily key job.If from
Start node starts, and along the direction of arrow to terminal node, the free float of all working is minimum, then this path is to close
Key path, is not the most critical path.
PERT_CPM module, according to the parameter information of each operation of input, generates the critical path of Optimizing Flow and complete man-hour
Between etc. parameter, as shown in Figure 4, including activity time (Activity Time), task completion date (Project
Completion Time), the earliest start time (Earliest Start) of every operation, (Earliest on earliest finish time
Finish), late start time (Lastest Start), latest finishing time (Lastest Finish), key node (On
Critical Path), critical path number (Number of Critical Path (s)) etc..
It is computed showing: 400 ± 20h regular inspection work deadline shortens 840 minutes, and the saving time is 15.3%, carries
The high efficiency of regular inspection work.The optimization method that the present invention provides improves the work efficiency of aeronautical maintenance personnel, reduces military flying
The machine grounding time, the collection for regular inspection data simultaneously specifies direction, cannot be only used for military aircraft regular inspection process optimization, also may be used
The periodic maintenance process optimization equipped for other.
By the military aircraft regular inspection flow optimization method of the probabilistic network scheduling technology that the present invention provides, obtain
Some conclusions of military aircraft regular inspection process optimization.
(1) network planning technique is more satisfactory to military aircraft regular inspection process optimization effect.
(2) restriction probability triple-time estimate method based on genetic algorithm is utilized, can be with approximate exact estimating military aircraft regular inspection
The expected duration of each operation in flow process, is converted to deterministic network planning optimization by probabilistic network scheduling optimization problem
Problem.
(3) the PERT_CPM module of WinQSB software can solve deterministic network optimization problem, determines that military aircraft is fixed
Examine the parameters such as the critical path in flow process and completion date.
Claims (1)
1. a military aircraft regular inspection flow optimization method based on probabilistic network scheduling technology, it is characterised in that: include
Following steps:
(1) for military aircraft regular inspection work feature, build military aircraft regular inspection flow process probabilistic network scheduling figure, with time
Based between, by the form of network by mutual dependence for existence, the parallel and serial relation of mutually restriction between operation each in whole flow process
Showing of image；
(2) military aircraft regular inspection flow process probabilistic network scheduling determinization；For the uncertainty of each step lasts time, profit
More reasonably operation expected duration is determined by restriction probability triple-time estimate method based on genetic algorithm；
(3) for the military aircraft regular inspection flow network plan after determinization, the key with the shortest completion date as evaluation index
The optimization in path；
1. by the parallel and serial relation of each operation in step (2) and expected duration parameter, it is input to PERT_CPM module
Matrix Form, build military aircraft regular inspection flow process work Activity information slip；
2. utilize the Solve and Analyze of PERT_CPM module, determine completion date and critical path parameter.
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