CN103366512A - Slope instability forecasting method based on equal-dimensional innovation epitaxial model - Google Patents
Slope instability forecasting method based on equal-dimensional innovation epitaxial model Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a slope instability forecasting method based on an equal-dimensional innovation epitaxial model. The method comprises the following steps of (1) carrying out the engineering geological survey on a potential unstable slope area; (2) establishing an earth surface and deep displacement monitoring network of an unstable slope deformation body; (3) generating a sequence data point curve of an accumulated displacement s and time t of the slope deformation body according to the deformation monitoring data; (4) judging a creep deformation stage of the slope deformation body according to the accumulated displacement and time curve, and establishing an equal-dimensional innovation model; (5) adopting a forecasting value as novel information, removing the old information in the equal-dimensional innovation model, and establishing the equal-dimensional innovation epitaxial model; (6) forecasting the slope instability time on the basis of the equal-dimensional innovation epitaxial model; and (7) repeating the steps (4) to (6) if novel monitoring data exists. The method is simple and reliable, the precision is improved, and not only can the entire deformation process of the slope be accurately monitored, but also the slope instability can be accurately forecasted in advance.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the geological disaster forecasting fields such as Hydraulic and Hydro-Power Engineering side slope, open mine side slope, road slope and massif side slope, be specifically related to a kind of slope instability forecasting procedure based on waiting breath extension model of reforming.
Background technology
Slope instability regularly forecasts, is the important foundation of slope instability diaster prevention and control decision-making, is again the ingredient of slope instability diaster prevention and control.It is the key that alleviates the slope instability disaster, also is the advanced subject that research is learned on the landslide.The slope instability forecast is the time of origin of differentiating the slope instability that will produce serious harm, also comprises the forecast of sliding speed and damaging range, and its basis is the understanding to the side slope deformation rule.It is according to various information and condition in the slope evolution process, or be referred to as forecast parameter, level, perpendicular displacement, degree of tilt, stress field, pore water pressure, rainfall and snow melt, temperature and reaction of animals etc. such as side slope, in time research and analyse their variation, judge the time that slope instability destroys.
The slope instability Time Forecast is if international soil mechanics and foundation engineering meeting published thesis and counts the history in existing more than 40 year in the 6th Montreal from Japanese scholars vegetarian rattan in 1969.Over nearly twenties years, particularly carry out environmental protection and alleviated since the disaster activity in 20 years, domestic and international many scholars have put into this research field, in the hope of alleviating and preventing and treating the slope instability disaster.According to research history, evolution and the depth of investigation of slope instability Time Forecast, it can be divided into 4 stages, i.e. macroscopic appearance forecast stage, empirical forecast stage, statistical study forecast stage and comprehensive analysis of system forecast stage.
For slope deforming, if get rid of the impact of certain burst factor, the variation tendency of deflection is being contained in its Deformation Series inside, namely has some dynamic memory feature in these data.Later stage observation data and Primary Stage Data exist substantial connection, and apart from the constantly nearer observation data in early stage of certain observation, the information of forecasting that comprises is more.Utilizing, the Monitoring Result of excavation slope instructs the construction method of successive projects to become a kind of new " information-aided construction " technology.But owing to the imperfection of intrinsic discreteness, unequal interval and Given information of slope monitoring data itself, so that conventional monitoring model is difficult to make comparatively accurately prediction.
Summary of the invention
In view of this, the object of the present invention is to provide a kind of slope instability forecasting procedure based on waiting breath extension model of reforming, the method is easy to be reliable, has improved precision, not only can accurately monitor the overall process of Landslide Deformation, and can make accurate forecast to slope instability in advance.
The present invention is by the following technical solutions:
A kind of slope instability forecasting procedure based on waiting breath extension model of reforming comprises the steps:
(1) engineering geological investigation is carried out in latent instability side slope zone;
(2) set up earth's surface and the deep displacement monitoring net of instable slope deformable body;
(3) according to deformation measurement data, generate the accumulative displacement s of slope deformed body and the sequence data point curve of time t;
(4) according to accumulative displacement and time curve, differentiate the creep stage of slope deformed body, set up and wait the breath extension model of reforming;
(5) with predicted value as new information, the old new breath in the breath extension model of reforming such as remove, set up and wait the breath extension model of reforming;
(6) according to etc. reform breath extension model carry out the slope instability forecast;
(7) if new Monitoring Data is arranged, repeating step (4)～(6).
As preferably, the establishment step of the reform breath extension model such as described is:
(1) GM(1 that utilizes total data to set up, 1), be called all data GM(1,1) and model;
(2) insert fresh information, utilize the model of setting up for increasing breath or newly ceasing GM(1,1);
(3) insert fresh information, cut first group of data of old information, the GM(1 that utilize to set up, 1) be called that waiting reforms ceases extension GM(1,1) model.
The invention has the beneficial effects as follows: the method is according to Creep Rule and the mechanism of slope project field monitoring data and slope instability, on the gray system theory basis, the reform that waits that has proposed the slope instability Deformation Prediction ceases the extension model, has set up the slope instability forecast time model based on deformation information.The method not only can accurately be monitored the overall process of Landslide Deformation, and can make accurate forecast to slope instability in advance.Compare with other existing method, the present invention can reduce the workload of slope instability forecasting procedure, has improved simultaneously precision, and is easy to be reliable.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is the embodiment of the invention 1 settling amount iteration GM(1,1) and the Optimized model prognostic chart;
Fig. 2 is the embodiment of the invention 1 horizontal shift iteration GM(1,1) and the Optimized model prognostic chart.
Embodiment
The invention will be further described below in conjunction with accompanying drawing and example:
The present invention includes following steps:
(1) engineering geological investigation is carried out in latent instability side slope zone;
(2) set up earth's surface and the deep displacement monitoring net of instable slope deformable body;
(3) according to deformation measurement data, generate the accumulative displacement s of slope deformed body and the sequence data point curve of time t;
(4) according to accumulative displacement and time curve, differentiate the creep stage of slope deformed body, set up and wait the breath extension model of reforming;
(5) with predicted value as new information, the old new breath in the breath model of reforming such as remove, set up and wait the breath extension model of reforming;
(6) according to etc. reform breath extension model carry out the slope instability Time Forecast;
(7) if new Monitoring Data is arranged, repeating step (4)～(6).
A large amount of modeling and forecastings prove, ratio of precision holographic model and innovation model precision of prediction on the breath extension model of reforming want high, As time goes on, some following disturbance factors will constantly enter system and system will be exerted one's influence, and only have nearest data to be of practical significance and the precision height.In gray system theory, if given original data series GM(1,1) model is in modeling process, and under even time interval, adjacent, the condition that do not have to jump, modeling data is done different the choice.
Obtain data and be set to original data sequence:
(1) GM(1 that utilizes total data to set up, 1), be called all data GM(1,1) and model;
(2) insert fresh information, utilize the model of setting up for increasing breath or newly ceasing GM(1,1);
(3) insert fresh information, cut first group of data of old information, the GM(1 that utilize to set up, 1) be called that waiting reforms ceases extension GM(1,1) model.
Embodiment 1:
Garden, the Purple Mountain, sun city, Zhengzhou is positioned at cercis hill path, Zhengzhou City and crossing, backstreet, store northeast corner, borders on the cercis hill path in the west, borders on the North Street, store in the south, and the about 10m in east is golden purple Yi Yuan residential area, high 7 floor in building, the Huimin mansion of northern Lingao 16 floor.Therefore this project excavation of foundation pit degree of depth is 8.5m, and surrounding environment is larger to influence of foundation excavation, must implement deformation monitoring to excavation slope and Adjacent Buildings, and the distortion when further next stage construct predicts, with the realization information-aided construction.7 settling datas and 7 horizontal shift data instances in 10 days ~ April 22 April in 2003 (being spaced apart 2 days) of (being spaced apart 1 day) in all in 19 days one 13 days ~ April of April in 2003 with foundation ditch peripheral ground deformation point P19, adopt respectively Traditional GM (1,1) model and process of iteration GM(1,1) model simulation and the prediction of being out of shape, and these two kinds of models such as all use at the breath extension model of reforming.Namely constantly give up old data, replenish new data and progressively set up the iteration optimization model.The calculating of data, analysis are realized by the Matlab programming.Result of calculation as shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2.
According to the analysis that predicts the outcome, along with the development of system, the meaning of legacy data will progressively reduce, and when constantly replenishing fresh information, cut in time old information, set up more meet engineering reality to wait reforms breath extension model be reasonable effective.
The present invention can be used for the geological disaster forecasting such as Hydraulic and Hydro-Power Engineering side slope, open mine side slope, road slope and massif side slope, not only can accurately monitor the overall process of Landslide Deformation, and can make accurate forecast to slope instability in advance, can reduce the workload of slope instability forecasting procedure, improved simultaneously precision, easy to be reliable.
Explanation is at last, above embodiment is only unrestricted in order to technical scheme of the present invention to be described, other modifications that those of ordinary skills make technical scheme of the present invention or be equal to replacement, only otherwise break away from the spirit and scope of technical solution of the present invention, all should be encompassed in the middle of the claim scope of the present invention.
Claims (2)
1. the slope instability forecasting procedure based on model such as extension such as breath such as reform such as grade is characterized in that comprising the steps:
(1) engineering geological investigation is carried out in latent instability side slope zone;
(2) set up earth's surface and the deep displacement monitoring net of instable slope deformable body;
(3) according to deformation measurement data, generate the accumulative displacement s of slope deformed body and the sequence data point curve of time t;
(4) according to accumulative displacement and time curve, differentiate the creep stage of slope deformed body, set up and wait the breath extension model of reforming;
(5) with predicted value as new information, the old new breath in the breath extension model of reforming such as remove, set up and wait the breath extension model of reforming;
(6) according to etc. reform breath extension model carry out the slope instability forecast;
(7) if new Monitoring Data is arranged, repeating step (4)～(6).
2. a kind of slope instability forecasting procedure based on the breath extension model of wait reforming according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: the described establishment step that waits reform to cease the extension model is:
(1) GM(1 that utilizes total data to set up, 1), be called all data GM(1,1) and model;
(2) insert fresh information, utilize the model of setting up for increasing breath or newly ceasing GM(1,1);
(3) insert fresh information, cut first group of data of old information, the GM(1 that utilize to set up, 1) be called that waiting reforms ceases extension GM(1,1) model.
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN105157664A (en) * | 2015-08-25 | 2015-12-16 | 武汉理工大学 | Method for determining dynamic deformation monitoring index of slope during construction period |
| CN108428018A (en) * | 2018-04-24 | 2018-08-21 | 厦门理工学院 | A kind of change dimension Recursive Grey Predicating Method of peak value of short |
| CN108922123A (en) * | 2018-08-02 | 2018-11-30 | 青岛理工大学 | A kind of mine slope sliding stability monitoring and pre-alarming method |
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| CN101718876A (en) * | 2009-11-13 | 2010-06-02 | 北京科技大学 | Method for monitoring stability and predicting destabilization of side slope based on change of state of strain of soil-rock mass |
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| CN101718876A (en) * | 2009-11-13 | 2010-06-02 | 北京科技大学 | Method for monitoring stability and predicting destabilization of side slope based on change of state of strain of soil-rock mass |
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| 冯小磊: "边坡形变检测模型和稳定性评价的研究及应用", 《中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库》 * |
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Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN105157664A (en) * | 2015-08-25 | 2015-12-16 | 武汉理工大学 | Method for determining dynamic deformation monitoring index of slope during construction period |
| CN105157664B (en) * | 2015-08-25 | 2017-08-25 | 武汉理工大学 | A kind of method for determining Construction Stage of Slop Engineering deformation dynamics monitor control index |
| CN108428018A (en) * | 2018-04-24 | 2018-08-21 | 厦门理工学院 | A kind of change dimension Recursive Grey Predicating Method of peak value of short |
| CN108428018B (en) * | 2018-04-24 | 2021-05-28 | 厦门理工学院 | Dimension-variable progressive gray prediction method for short-circuit current peak value |
| CN108922123A (en) * | 2018-08-02 | 2018-11-30 | 青岛理工大学 | A kind of mine slope sliding stability monitoring and pre-alarming method |
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Application publication date: 20131023 |